Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, implying a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★★★, denoting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - PX: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Glass: ★★★, denoting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core View - The chemical futures market shows a mixed performance, with different products having different supply - demand relations and price trends [2][3][5] - Some products are affected by factors such as device restarts, seasonal demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed up at the end of the session, but still in a downward pattern. Downstream demand has some support, but supply is expected to increase [2] - Polyolefin futures closed up, with polyethylene having stable supply and some improvement in demand, while polypropylene is in a seasonal demand slump [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated narrowly, with supply rising and demand weak, but import pressure is expected to ease [3] - Styrene futures prices declined slightly. Overall, there is a slight decrease in supply and a slight increase in demand, but factory inventory may increase [3] Polyester - PX and PTA are in a weak - oscillating pattern due to falling oil prices and the demand off - season. Supply is increasing, and there is a need to watch for demand recovery and valuation repair [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded with technical support and overseas device shutdown. Supply is expected to increase, and the upward drive is limited [5] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices follow raw materials. Short fiber may be more bullish in the medium - term, while bottle chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose slightly due to coal cost news. Coastal ports are expected to accumulate inventory, but there may be a demand recovery in the peak season [6] - Urea futures prices rose sharply. The current supply - demand is loose, and attention should be paid to macro and export policies [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices rebounded at the end of the session. Cost support increased, but supply is expected to rise and demand is weak, so the price may oscillate weakly [7] - Caustic soda prices oscillated weakly. The comprehensive profit improved, but the long - term supply pressure remains, and the price is expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rose sharply. Supply is high, and the market is facing a weak reality, but the price is expected to be difficult to break the previous low [8] - Glass futures prices were weak. Production and sales are insufficient, and the market has returned to reality trading [8]

2024年1至12月份，氯碱化工的营业收入构成为：工业占比98.1%，贸易占比1.34%，其他业务占比 0.57%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 氯碱化工（SH 600618，收盘价：10.32元）8月5日晚间发布公告称，公司第十一届第十七次董事会会议 于2025年8月5日以通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于修订董事会各专门委员会实施细则的议案》等文 件。 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-08-05 供需驱动偏弱，PVC承压运行 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4981元/吨（-34）；华东基差-151元/吨（-16）;华南基差-81元/吨（-16）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4830元/吨（-50）；华南电石法报价4900元/吨（-50）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格595元/吨（+55）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润14元/吨（-44）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-21元/吨（+113）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-479元/吨（+27）；PVC出口利润7.9美元/吨（+6.9）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存34.5万吨（-1.2）；PVC社会库存44.8万吨（+2.1）；PVC电石法开工率74.42%（-4.79%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.24%（+3.29%）；PVC开工率73.26%（-2.55%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量85.4万吨（+5.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2529元/吨（-10）；山东32%液碱基差34元/吨（+10）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价820元/吨（+0）；山东50%液 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic manufacturing PMI index declined in July, and the new round of US tariff policies put pressure on the market. The supply in the East China region remained stable this week with no planned device maintenance, resulting in sufficient supply. Non - aluminum demand did not improve significantly, and the off - season continued. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong Province may decline. Although caustic soda has strong downward support, market sentiment has cooled recently, with sharp price fluctuations. The near - month contracts will face certain warehouse receipt pressure. It is recommended to focus on the 9 - 11 reverse spread. The upper reference pressure level for the caustic soda 2509 contract is 2650 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2350 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong showed a weak trend, and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong widened. From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the price of 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and the price difference between different regions were presented. During the period from July 25th to July 31st, 2025, the prices of sea salt, 32% and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, and 98% flake caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of liquid chlorine increased by 42.86% to - 200 yuan/ton, the price of alumina increased by 0.63% to 3215 yuan/ton, the price of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.79% to 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 1.46% to 69500 yuan/ton [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: From July 2024 to July 2025, data on the futures closing prices of caustic soda, soda ash, alumina, PVC, and the number of warehouse receipts were presented [15]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side: Production and Operating Rate**: From January to July 2025, the average operating rate of sample caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 83.9%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period. The operating rates in North China, South China, and East China increased, while those in the Northwest and Northeast decreased. Shandong's operating rate increased by 0.5% to 87.9%. It is expected that the operating rate will be around 83.6%, and the weekly production will be about 808,600 tons. Multiple enterprises in different regions have planned maintenance, such as Leshan Fuhua in Sichuan from August 1st to August 16th, and Shandong Hualu from August 8th with the restart date to be determined [23][24]. - **Downstream: Alumina**: As of July 31st, 2025, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.8 million tons. The supply of alumina increased, with a significant increase in the north and tight supply in the south due to roasting furnace maintenance [27]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31st, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 424,200 wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.37% compared to the previous period. The inventory trends varied in different regions, with an upward trend in North China, a decline in South China and Central China, an increase in East China and Southwest China, and a decrease in the Northwest [33]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of July 31st, 2025, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased by 30.36% to - 279 yuan/ton. As of August 1st, 2025, the operating rate of PVC in China was 76.84%, an increase of 0.05% compared to the previous period, and it is expected to reach 78.39% this week. The average weekly profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 233 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 71.02% [37][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Short - term supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is not significant, and the spot price fluctuation is expected to be small. SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2450 and resistance around 2610. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - alkali profits on industry operation and the 2450 support and 2610 pressure levels [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2529 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the futures holding volume is 189,077 lots, down 19,374 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 11,909 lots, down 1091 lots; the futures trading volume is 752,433 lots, down 277,186 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2606 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2688 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is 34 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 638 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 150 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. As of July 31st, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 424,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [3] 3.7 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - On the supply side, some devices were shut down last week, and some were restarted, with the capacity utilization rate decreasing by 0.1% to 83.9%. This week, a device in Southwest China is planned to shut down, and a device in Northwest China will restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to change little. On the demand side, the alumina industry has good profits, and the operating rate has rebounded to a neutral level; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing has remained stable. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 3.87% to 424,200 tons last week [3]

Consumption Trends - Consumer spending shows a divergence with weak goods consumption and strong service consumption, particularly in travel and cinema during the summer[1] - Automotive retail sales have slightly declined, while wholesale volumes have increased, indicating seasonal and promotional impacts on consumption[9] - Food prices continue to drop, with agricultural products seeing an expanding year-on-year decline, particularly affecting premium products like Moutai liquor[9] Investment Insights - As of August 2, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached CNY 2.8 trillion, marking the second-highest issuance pace since 2022, with July alone contributing CNY 616.94 billion[17] - New housing transactions in 30 cities have shown a seasonal rebound, but the year-on-year decline in average transaction area has widened from 14.8% to 15.4%[17] Price and Production Dynamics - Consumer prices are on a downward trend, with industrial prices also showing marginal declines, leading to a cooling of price increase expectations[36] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a slight decrease, with the South China price index dropping by 1.1% week-on-week, reflecting a shift in market supply and demand expectations[36] Import and Export Activity - Port operations have slowed due to typhoon impacts, with a year-on-year decline in the number of ships docking at ports[21] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.3% compared to the previous week, while import rates have slightly increased by 1.1%[21] Liquidity Conditions - Funding rates have decreased, with R007 down by 20.7 basis points and DR007 down by 22.8 basis points, indicating a trend towards a more accommodative liquidity environment[39] - The 10-year government bond yield has fallen by 2.7 basis points to 1.71%, reflecting easing pressures in the funding market[39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upper - space of caustic soda is limited, and there is pressure at the 2800 price level. The recent supply - demand remains loose. With the return of previously overhauled devices, supply pressure persists, and downstream demand remains dull with no obvious positive factors. The market mainly weighs the possible negative feedback on the operating rate caused by the decline in liquid chlorine prices and the potential impact of domestic exports. Considering the approaching delivery of the near - end contract, the upper - space of the near - end is expected to be limited without obvious event shocks [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In July, domestic caustic soda futures showed a trend of rising from a low level and strengthening with fluctuations. Taking the main contract SE2509 as an example, it rebounded from the June low of 2207 yuan/ton to the intra - cycle high of 2757 yuan/ton, with a rise of 28.23%. The strong performance of caustic soda futures in the cycle was related to the near - end spot pattern and July policy expectations. The near - end spot strengthened as the previous pessimistic expectations were gradually corrected. The market's discussion on the comprehensive profit, inventory, and possible production cuts of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises heated up due to the rapid decline in the price of associated liquid chlorine. Upstream enterprises raised the price of liquid caustic soda, and downstream alumina enterprises also increased their procurement prices. In addition, the "anti - involution" series of policies in July boosted the commodity sentiment, and the caustic soda market showed an upward trend [15]. 2. Spot Prices - **32% caustic soda**: The prices in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan are presented, with specific price data and trends shown in the figures [18][22]. - **50% caustic soda**: The prices in regions like Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, and Inner Mongolia are provided, along with their price trends [24]. - **99% flake caustic soda**: The prices in Shandong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang are given, and the price trends are also shown [25]. 3. Price Spreads - **Model price spreads**: The price spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong, are analyzed, with specific data and trends presented [33]. - **Regional price spreads**: The price spreads of 32% caustic soda and 50% caustic soda between different regions are studied, including the spreads between Zhejiang - Shandong, Jiangsu - Shandong, etc., and the corresponding data and trends are shown [33][34]. 4. Supply Side - **Overall supply situation**: China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. The production capacity in Southwest, South, and Northeast China is relatively low. In June, the domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.5122 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. In July, the expected domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.6178 million tons, with an expected month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The operating rate of domestic chlor - alkali enterprises in July was 58.01%, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% compared to June (83.01%) [50]. - **Operating rate**: The weekly operating rates of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda are presented, along with their trends [51]. - **Overhaul situation**: A list of chlor - alkali device overhauls is provided, including long - term shutdown capacities and overhauls in July. Some enterprises have completed overhauls and resumed production, while others have planned overhauls in August and September [57]. - **Flake caustic soda device operation**: The operating conditions of flake caustic soda devices of various manufacturers are described, including overhauls, normal operations, and planned overhauls [61]. 5. Import and Export - In June 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 48,011 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 113.00%. The cumulative imports from January to June were 181,468 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 97.03%. Exports of liquid caustic soda were 291,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.31% and a month - on - month increase of 13.70%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 1.7255 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.79%. Imports of solid caustic soda were 862.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 63.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.67%. Exports of solid caustic soda were 59,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 79.32% and a year - on - year increase of 79.82% [65][68]. 6. Demand Side - **Alumina demand**: In July, the operating capacity of alumina enterprises was at a relatively high level. Although the supply - demand fundamentals had a certain negative impact on prices, the procurement demand from some downstream enterprises in the southern region and the short - term overhauls of some calcination devices in some enterprises led to a tight supply of spot goods in some areas, driving up the alumina price. The alumina market was also affected by macro - policies, but the actual impact on existing capacities was limited [73]. - **Viscose staple fiber demand**: In July, the domestic viscose staple fiber market was stable with fluctuations. The average monthly price was 12,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan/ton compared to the previous month, a decline of 0.63%. The cost side weakened as the prices of raw materials decreased. The industry's supply increased as some previously shut - down or reduced - production devices resumed production. The inventory decreased, and the downstream demand increased slightly, resulting in more stable quotes from manufacturers and an increase in the number of signed contracts [74]. 7. Inventory - In July, the overall inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories maintained a high - level oscillation, while the inventory of flake caustic soda continued to decline. There were differences among different manufacturers in Shandong. Enterprises with low inventory pressure had a strong willingness to raise prices, while those with moderate inventory adjusted prices according to market conditions. As of August 1, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories was 266,300 tons, basically unchanged compared to June 27, 2025 (266,600 tons). The inventory of domestic flake caustic soda factories was 19,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.49% compared to May 2, 2025 [97]. 8. Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. Each ton of caustic soda production requires 1.51 tons of raw salt, accounting for about 12% - 18% of the total cost, and the power consumption per ton is about 2300 - 2400 kWh, accounting for about 60% of the total cost. In July, the cost side weakened, while the spot price of caustic soda strengthened, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali showed a recovery [103]. 9. Chlorine - consuming Downstream - The report presents data on the PVC benchmark spot price, PVC powder weekly operating rate, and the comprehensive profit of the calcium carbide method in the northwest integrated chlor - alkali industry. It also shows the production capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as epoxy propane, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and trichloromethane [115]. 10. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides data on the total production, cumulative production, export volume, net export volume, cumulative net export volume, apparent consumption, cumulative apparent consumption, consumption, cumulative consumption, and inventory changes of caustic soda from 2024 to 2025, along with their year - on - year growth rates [142].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities released a report indicating that the A-share market is entering a period of increased volatility due to key domestic and international events, with a focus on sectors that show potential for rebound and sustained performance [1] Market Analysis - The market experienced a contraction in trading volume due to fluctuations in the US dollar index and policy expectations, but the selling pressure is considered manageable [1] - The current profit-making effect has reverted to levels seen in mid-July, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [1] Sector Focus - Key sectors identified for rebound potential include AI, capacity clearance, and self-controllable technologies, which are expected to show continuous improvement in performance [1] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with high dividend yield and potential for recovery, such as white goods, storage chips, optical fiber cables, chlor-alkali, aviation equipment, intelligent driving, and robotics [1] Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight allocation in large financials, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries to capitalize on growth opportunities [1]

华泰证券策略团队最新研报指出，上周进入海内外关键事件频发的"超级周"，后半周在美元指数、政策 预期扰动下，市场缩量调整，但考虑到目前赚钱效应已回调至7月中旬位置、市场抛压相对可控，短期 A股或进入波动率放大的平台期，局部热点活跃或为基准情形。结合题材容量、补涨空间、业绩持续性 分析，目前具备补涨逻辑且景气改善持续性的板块主要集中于AI、产能出清及自主可控方向。配置 上，把握赔率思维，关注白色家电等跌出股息率性价比的稳健及潜力高股息品种及Q2业绩回升且具备 补涨逻辑的方向，如存储芯片、光纤光缆、氯碱、航空装备、 智能驾驶、机器人等。战略上超配大金 融、创新药、军工。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC monthly analysis: In July, China's PVC powder output was 1.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. The overall start - up in July slightly declined but remained at a high level compared to the same period. With the resumption of production after maintenance of some devices and the addition of 900,000 tons of new capacity gradually reaching mass production in August, PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure remains high. The export may be affected by India's import policy and the rainy season, and the domestic demand is weak. PVC social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. After the previous macro - disturbance, the PVC trend is still under pressure [4][2]. - Caustic soda monthly analysis: In July, the upstream start - up of caustic soda remained at a high level compared to the same period. The main downstream, alumina, has expanding profits, and the previous production - cut devices have resumed production one after another, with a continued increase in start - up, providing short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum end has little change in start - up and remains weak in the off - season. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of caustic soda is high, the price of liquid chlorine has rebounded, the industry inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali profits in the later stage [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - alkali New Capacity Situation - PVC: In 2025, the planned new PVC capacity in China is 2.2 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.99%. In the third quarter, 1.4 million tons of capacity will be put into production, increasing the pressure. Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons and Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s 500,000 tons were completed and put into production at the end of July and are expected to reach mass production soon [15]. - Caustic soda: In 2025, the planned new caustic soda capacity in China is about 2.2 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 4.47%. In August, attention should be paid to the commissioning of Tianjin Bohua and Gansu Yaowang. However, due to issues such as the treatment of by - product liquid chlorine and policy constraints, the actual commissioning in the second half of the year may be less than expected [16]. Chlor - alkali Supply Situation PVC Domestic Supply Analysis - In July, China's PVC powder output was 1.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. With the resumption of production after maintenance of some devices and the support of chlor - alkali profits, the overall start - up is rising. The addition of new capacity will further increase the supply - side pressure [23]. Caustic Soda Domestic Supply Analysis - In July, the caustic soda output was 3.5833 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.88%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.12%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. In August, the maintenance capacity will decrease significantly, and the previous production - cut and maintenance devices in the Shandong main production area will resume production one after another. The price of liquid chlorine, a by - product of caustic soda, has declined, strengthening the cost support for caustic soda [38]. Chlor - alkali Import and Export Analysis PVC Import and Export Analysis - In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 27.61% and a year - on - year increase of 21.03%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1.9605 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.26%. The export in August is still expected to be affected by policy uncertainties [56]. Caustic Soda Import and Export Analysis - In June 2025, the caustic soda export volume was 350,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.91%. The export to Southeast Asian regions such as Australia and Indonesia is relatively large. The export is expected to be supported by the overseas demand for downstream products such as alumina [60]. Current Situation and Outlook of PVC and Caustic Soda Demand - PVC demand in July was still weak. The real estate market was sluggish, dragging down domestic demand. PVC downstream product enterprises' start - up was at a low level compared to the same period, and the demand side was difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent macro - policies on downstream demand [72]. - For caustic soda, the main downstream, alumina, has expanding profits, and the previous production - cut devices have resumed production, providing short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum end has little change in start - up and remains weak in the off - season [72]. Current Situation and Outlook of Chlor - alkali Inventory - In July, PVC social inventory continued to accumulate. With the increase in supply and weak demand, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the later stage [110]. - In July, caustic soda inventory showed an overall accumulation trend. The upstream inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the inventory pressure is expected to remain large in the later stage. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm during the "Golden September and Silver October" [110].