Group 1 - Huatai Co. experienced a sharp increase, hitting the daily limit up [1] - Qingshan Paper Industry rose over 6% [1] - Other companies such as Jingxing Paper, Yibin Paper, Wuzhou Special Paper, Huawang Technology, and Kain Co. also saw gains [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In November, there will still be a differentiation phenomenon in the spot market. Hardwood pulp will be relatively firm under cost support, while softwood pulp will be weaker than hardwood pulp due to high inventory and demand substitution. Downstream base paper issued price increase letters in November, which is beneficial to market sentiment. The overall demand has slightly improved, and it is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a range [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: In October, the spot market price of pulp showed a pattern of weak softwood pulp and stable hardwood pulp. The prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood decreased, while the price of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish remained stable, and the price of Bird increased slightly. The price of chemical mechanical pulp remained stable, while the price of natural color pulp and bagasse pulp increased [11][14]. - **Pulp Futures Market Technical Chart Analysis**: Since its listing in November 2018, the weighted monthly K - line chart of pulp futures has basically shown a convergent triangle consolidation pattern. It is expected that the pulp price will continue to fluctuate and rebound within the convergent triangle in November [17]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: In October, the main - continuous contract of pulp futures increased, while the overall increase of wood pulp spot price was less than that of pulp futures, so the basis discount decreased significantly [20]. - **Log Futures Market Review**: In October, the main - continuous contract of log futures first rose and then fell, with a monthly decline of 3.61%. The weighted trading volume increased, and the weighted open interest decreased [22]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Pulp Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: It is expected that the total pulp production in November will be 231.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. The total supply will be 736.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. The demand is expected to increase slightly [24][25]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In October 2025, the domestic pulp production increased. It is expected that the pulp production will decrease in November [26]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In September 2025, the pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volumes of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp increased, while the import volume of natural color pulp decreased. The import average price of pulp continued to decline [32][35][38][40]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption**: In October 2025, the actual consumption of domestic pulp continued to rise [46][48]. - **Wood Pulp Usage**: The wood pulp usage of household paper and white cardboard increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The wood pulp usage of offset paper increased slightly, while that of coated paper decreased slightly [50][53]. - **Downstream Paper Production**: In October 2025, the production of household paper, offset paper, and white cardboard increased, while the production of coated paper decreased slightly. It is expected that the production of offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard will increase in November [56][58][60][64]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: In October, the price of household paper remained stable, the price of cultural paper continued to decline, the prices of white board paper and white cardboard increased, and the prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper also increased [67][69][71]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: In October, the overall port inventory increased, with Qingdao Port reducing inventory, Changshu Port increasing inventory, and Gaolan Port reducing inventory. It is expected that the inventory will slightly decrease in November [73][77]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: In October, the pulp futures warehouse receipts decreased [78].

Group 1 - The paper industry experienced a significant rally on November 3, with Huatai Co. hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Qingshan Paper surged over 6%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] - Other companies in the paper industry, including Jingxing Paper, Yibin Paper, Wuzhou Special Paper, and Huawang Technology, also saw their stock prices increase, suggesting a broader trend in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the phenomenon of "zombie stocks" in the A-share market, where companies with declining stock prices continue to report profits, leading to perplexing situations for investors [1][3][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - A stock that was listed in April 2015 at a price of 5.47 yuan peaked at 72 yuan but has since fallen to 3.67 yuan, representing a 93.5% decline over ten years [1]. - Another company, Shanying International, saw its stock price drop from a high of 62.64 yuan to 1.62 yuan, a decline of 97.4%, while facing a 13% year-on-year drop in corrugated paper prices in 2024 [3]. - Watson Bio's stock price fell from 12.20 yuan in May 2015 to a cumulative decline of 18%, with a peak drop of 89.6% from its historical high of 96.73 yuan [3]. - Tongce Medical's stock price plummeted from 300.98 yuan to 40.13 yuan, an 88% decline, despite a market peak where its P/E ratio exceeded 200 [3]. - Chongqing Steel has reported losses for three consecutive years, with a projected loss of 1.26 billion yuan in 2024, amid an oversupply in the steel industry [3]. Group 2: Company Fundamentals - BWS, a veteran in the water treatment industry, has annual revenues exceeding 9 billion yuan but has seen its stock price decline for five consecutive years due to liquidity issues, with a daily trading volume below 100 million yuan [5]. - Huaping Co. has raised 980 million yuan since its listing but has only distributed 31 million yuan in dividends, with major shareholders cashing out 230 million yuan [5]. - Dongjiang Environmental, another established player in environmental management, has seen its stock price drop from 30.30 yuan to 4.54 yuan, an 85% decline, with continuous losses reported [7]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The A-share market contains numerous stocks that have been in a downward trend for ten years, characterized by persistent declines and failed bottom-fishing attempts by investors [5][9]. - Extreme cases include companies like Baofeng Group, which fell from 327.01 yuan to a delisting price of 0.28 yuan, a 99.9% drop, and LeTV, which dropped from 179.03 yuan to 0.31 yuan, a 99% decline [5]. - Investors often make the mistake of blindly bottom-fishing and trusting low-priced stocks, leading to deeper losses as seen with BWS shareholders who increased their holdings during price declines [7][9]. Group 4: Identifying Zombie Stocks - Zombie stocks typically exhibit characteristics such as a long-term average turnover rate below 1%, minimal price fluctuations, continuous performance declines, and lack of institutional coverage [9]. - Fundamental screening is crucial to avoid risks, with recommendations to steer clear of companies with declining revenues or high debt ratios, while favoring financially healthy industry leaders [9]. - Data indicates that stocks with declines exceeding 90% rarely return to historical highs, often remaining stagnant or heading towards delisting [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hengfeng Paper (600356) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on the company's performance and market position [1]. Core Viewpoints - Hengfeng Paper has a leading market share in the domestic tobacco paper sector, with strong technical, scale, and product advantages. The company is expected to maintain stable production and sales volumes in the upcoming quarters [2]. - The tobacco industry has a long pricing cycle and exhibits counter-cyclical characteristics, leading to a favorable pricing model. Overall average prices are expected to remain stable [2]. - The company is expanding its global market share, with a focus on exports. It has established stable partnerships with major global tobacco companies and has consistently achieved over 20% product export growth [2]. - The company plans to acquire Jin Feng Paper to enhance its operational efficiency and reduce domestic transportation costs, which could contribute to future growth [2]. - Profitability remains stable, with a gross margin of 17.7% and a net profit margin of 7.8% in Q3 2025. The company has effective cost control measures in place [3]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit of 148 million yuan, up 34.8% year-on-year [1]. - The Q3 2025 results showed revenues of 685 million yuan, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 0.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company forecasts net profits of 200 million yuan, 230 million yuan, and 260 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.0X, 12.1X, and 10.7X [3][4].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年11月2日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四上升1.49%，本周增幅环比扩大0.15个百分点。下游印厂采购仍偏刚需，经销 商补库偏谨慎，双胶纸库存压力继续增加。 2、据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在51.40%，环比上升0.16个百分点，本周增幅环比收窄2.47个百分点。周内多数产线生产 稳定，行业开工整体变化有限。 3、太阳纸业发布2025年三季报。2025Q1-3公司实现收入289.36亿元（同比-6.6%），归母净利润24.99亿元（同比+1.7%），扣非归母 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 28.936 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.500 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.471 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, showing a year-on-year change of -7%, +2%, and -5% respectively. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 9.823 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 707 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -6%, +3%, and -9% respectively [2][4][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, totaling 279 million yuan [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the main reason for the decline in net profit was the drop in profitability of cultural paper, with prices for copperplate and double-glue paper decreasing by 500 yuan/ton (-9.3%) and 338 yuan/ton (-6.6%) respectively compared to Q2 2025. The decline in paper prices was attributed to a seasonal demand slump and oversupply in the cultural paper segment [5][6]. - The profitability of boxboard paper remained stable due to rising raw material prices, while the profitability of dissolving pulp and externally sold wood pulp was expected to remain stable as well [5][6]. Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see improved performance due to the launch of the Nanning project and seasonal demand recovery. The company has new production capacity planned, including 1 million tons of boxboard paper and 400,000 tons of specialty paper, which will contribute to increased production and sales in Q4 2025 [10]. - The overall paper industry is anticipated to enter an upward cycle as new capacity pressures ease and demand stabilizes, with the company expected to achieve net profits of 3.4 billion, 3.9 billion, and 4.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the metal packaging industry, particularly highlighting the potential for companies like Aorijin to benefit from overseas expansion and market restructuring [3]. Core Insights - The overall revenue of the light industry sample in Q3 decreased by 0.73% year-on-year, with a significant net profit decline of 25% primarily due to the paper sector's performance. Excluding the paper sector, the net profit margin remained stable [2][7]. - The personal care packaging sector showed steady growth, while the home and paper sectors faced pressure, leading to a divergence in export performance [2][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets for metal packaging, with Aorijin's planned expansion in 2025 marking a pivotal year for the company [3]. Summary by Sections Home and Paper Sector - The home sector's revenue decreased by 2% year-on-year in Q3, with net profit down by 14.9%. The decline is attributed to reduced government subsidies and increased investments in new business areas [7]. - The paper sector's revenue fell by 12.6% year-on-year, with a staggering net profit decline of 429%, largely due to losses at Chenming Paper [7][9]. - Price trends indicate a slight increase in certain paper products, with expectations for cultural paper prices to stabilize due to upcoming demand [7][9]. Personal Care and Entertainment Sector - The personal care sector saw a revenue increase of 18.4% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 42.3%, driven by companies like Zhongshun Jierou and Stable Medical [9]. - The entertainment sector's retail sales increased by 11.9% in September, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [12]. Export Chain - The export chain's revenue grew by 0.7% year-on-year, but net profit saw a slight decline of 1.6%. Companies with strong operational capabilities performed well, while those facing capacity transfer issues struggled [9]. - Recent developments in US-China trade negotiations have reduced tariff uncertainties, which may benefit export-oriented companies [9]. Packaging Sector - The packaging sector's revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with a notable net profit growth of 16.1%. The metal packaging segment continues to face challenges, but there are expectations for recovery in profitability [9]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong operational stability and dividend value in the packaging sector [9].

Core Points - The stock price of Shanying International (600567) closed at 1.77 yuan as of October 31, 2025, down 2.75% from the previous week [1] - The company reported a total market capitalization of 10.293 billion yuan, ranking 3rd in the paper industry and 1841st among A-shares [1] Shareholder Changes - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shanying International was 196,139, an increase of 7,013 shareholders or 3.71% compared to June 30, 2025 [2][5] - The average number of shares held per shareholder rose to 29,600 shares, with an average holding value of 53,400 yuan [2] Performance Disclosure - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shanying International reported a main revenue of 21.133 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.17% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -290 million yuan, a significant decline of 522.74% year-on-year [3][5] - The third quarter alone saw a main revenue of 7.291 billion yuan, down 0.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of -331 million yuan, a decrease of 636.03% [3] Company Announcements - The company released its third-quarter report, indicating a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.125 billion yuan, down 38.17% year-on-year [4] - The board approved the reappointment of the accounting firm and the addition of daily related transactions amounting to 1.4 billion yuan [4][5] - A temporary shareholders' meeting is scheduled for November 18, 2025, to discuss the aforementioned matters, with a registration date of November 7, 2025 [4]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.82 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, an increase of 2.7% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 28.94 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% [1] Group 1: Pulp and Paper Market Outlook - The current market for pulp and paper shows limited improvement in supply-demand dynamics, which hinders further price increases for pulp [2] - Most paper manufacturers lack sufficient profit recovery momentum, reducing their enthusiasm for purchasing wood pulp, which negatively impacts the effective uplift of wood pulp price levels [2] - It is expected that pulp and paper prices will stabilize at the bottom, with Q4 profits for the company in this segment anticipated to remain steady, although the new pulp line in Nanning is expected to contribute additional output [2] Group 2: Capacity Expansion Plans - The company has clear capacity expansion plans, including a 140,000-ton specialty paper project expected to enter trial production in Q1 2026 [3] - Plans include the construction of a 600,000-ton bleaching chemical pulp and alkali recovery project, as well as a 700,000-ton high-end packaging paper project [3] - In the Nanning area, the first phase of high-end packaging paper production lines is set to begin implementation in H1 2024, with production expected to start in August 2025 [3] Group 3: Profit Forecast Adjustments - Based on the performance in the first three quarters of 2025 and considering the current low levels of pulp and paper prices, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts [4] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.43 billion yuan, 3.99 billion yuan, and 4.66 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12X, 10X, and 9X [4]