1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump continues to pressure the Fed and Powell, but it may be difficult to achieve results. If Powell or the Fed yields, it may bring further turmoil to the US and global financial systems [7]. - Tin prices have broken through historical highs and are expected to continue rising, with the first target at 400,000 yuan/ton and the next target around 450,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Crude oil may have a 2 - 4 dollars/barrel rebound space in the short - term, but there is still significant downward pressure in the first half of the year, and it may test 50 dollars/barrel [11]. - Double - offset paper has alleviated the warehouse receipt contradiction and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, it is still recommended to short at high prices [13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Pre - market Focus - Trump criticizes Powell and calls for a large - scale interest rate cut. The Fed's independence is under threat, and the market is waiting to see if there will be an interest rate cut this month [7]. 3.2. Top Picks by the Director 3.2.1. Tin - Tin prices have reached a new high. Supply is tight, inventory is low, and price transmission to downstream is smooth. Future prices are expected to rise [8][9]. 3.2.2. Crude Oil - Short - term price may rise due to geopolitical risks and good spot market transactions, but there is downward pressure in the first half of the year [11]. 3.2.3. Double - offset Paper - Warehouse receipt quantity has increased, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term. In the long - term, supply is redundant, and demand is weak [13]. 3.3. Commodity Research Morning Report 3.3.1. Precious Metals - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. - Silver: Reached a new high [15][20]. 3.3.2. Base Metals - Copper: LME cancelled warehouse receipts have increased, supporting the price [23]. - Zinc: High - level volatility has increased [26]. - Lead: Overseas inventory has decreased, supporting the price [29]. - Tin: Broke through the historical high [32]. - Aluminum: Running strongly; Alumina: Continuing to bottom out; Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [36]. - Platinum: Range - bound; Palladium: Narrow - range oscillation [39]. - Nickel: Industry and secondary funds are in a game, with wide - range oscillation [43]. - Stainless steel: Nickel - iron has raised the oscillation center, and the market is betting on Indonesian policies [44]. 3.3.3. Energy Metals - Carbonate lithium: Oscillating strongly, pay attention to market sentiment changes [49]. 3.3.4. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts, and demand is decreasing marginally [52]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to factory quotes [53]. 3.3.5. Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Valuation is high, be cautious about chasing up [56]. - Rebar: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Coke: High - level oscillation [67]. - Coking coal: High - level oscillation [67]. - Steam coal: Supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short - term [69]. 3.3.6. Forestry Products - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [72]. 3.3.7. Chemicals - p - Xylene: Cost support is strong [76]. - PTA: Polyester plans to cut production, pay attention to the implementation strength [76]. - MEG: Valuation has limited downward space [76]. - Rubber: Wide - range oscillation [84]. - Synthetic rubber: High - level oscillation [88]. - LLDPE: Standard product production ratio remains low, and spot prices are rising [91]. - PP: Downstream export rush supports propylene, and PP cost support is strong [93]. - Caustic soda: Oscillating weakly [96]. - Pulp: Oscillating [101]. - Glass: Original sheet price is stable [106]. - Methanol: Oscillating with support [109]. - Urea: Oscillating [113]. - Styrene: Short - term oscillation [117]. - Soda ash: Spot market changes little [121]. - LPG: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [126]. - Propylene: Spot supply and demand are tightening, with a strong upward trend [127]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly [135]. - Fuel oil: Geopolitical factors drive up the price, and there is still support below [138]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Following the rise, the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market continues to rebound [138]. 3.3.8. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): Running weakly [140]. 3.3.9. Textiles - Short - fiber: Oscillating strongly, hold long TA and short PF positions [157]. - Bottle chips: Oscillating strongly, hold long - short spread positions [157]. 3.3.10. Paper Products - Offset printing paper: Short at high prices [160]. 3.3.11. Agricultural Products - Pure benzene: Short - term oscillation [165]. - Palm oil: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and POGO is expected to shrink [169]. - Soybean oil: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, pay attention to the spill - over effect of crude oil [169]. - Soybean meal: May follow US soybeans to digest the USDA report, and the market is weak [175]. - Soybeans: Spot prices are stable and strong, and the market may oscillate [175]. - Corn: Pay attention to spot prices [178]. - Sugar: Running weakly [182]. - Cotton: Continuing the adjustment trend [186]. - Eggs: Spot is profitable, and the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [192]. - Hogs: Demand has negative feedback, and supply release is postponed [195]. - Peanuts: Oscillating [199].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance and stock activity of Shanying International (600567) as of January 13, 2026, with a closing price of 1.71 yuan, showing no change from the previous day [1] - The company reported a main revenue of 21.133 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -290 million yuan, a significant decline of 522.74% [2] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a single-quarter main revenue of 7.291 billion yuan, down 0.77% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -331 million yuan, a drastic drop of 636.03% [2] Group 2 - The company has a debt ratio of 67.69%, with investment income of 37.952 million yuan and financial expenses of 624 million yuan, resulting in a gross profit margin of 7.91% [2] - In the last 90 days, two institutions have provided ratings for the stock, with one buy rating and one hold rating [3] - The article explains the concept of fund flow, indicating that the net flow of funds is determined by the difference between buying and selling pressures, with specific definitions for main funds, speculative funds, and retail funds [3]

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 1.41% on January 13, with Qingshan Paper leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4138.76, down 0.64%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14169.4, down 1.37% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Minshida (920394) saw a significant increase of 7.45%, closing at 50.74 with a trading volume of 72,000 shares and a turnover of 356 million yuan [1] - Qingshan Paper (600103) led the decline with a drop of 6.96%, closing at 4.01 with a trading volume of 3.042 million shares and a turnover of 1.255 billion yuan [2] - Other notable performers included Rongsheng Environmental (603165) with a 2.94% increase and Wuzhou Special Paper (605007) with a 2.22% increase [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 362 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 285 million yuan [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that Minshida had a net inflow of 38.33 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 10.78% of its total trading volume [3] - In contrast, Wuzhou Special Paper experienced a net outflow of 24.45 million yuan from retail investors, indicating a negative sentiment among this group [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Today, pulp futures weakened significantly due to the macro - sentiment of commodities but did not break the 5400 - 5700 trading range. One can consider high - selling and low - buying within this range [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 10, 2026, SP2601 was 5418 yuan/ton, down 1.13% day - on - day and 0.99% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5231 yuan/ton, down 1.18% day - on - day and 0.47% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5490 yuan/ton, down 1.08% day - on - day and 0.72% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Prices**: On January 10, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.90% week - on - week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5400 yuan/ton, up 1.89% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4750 yuan/ton, up 0.64% day - on - day and 1.06% week - on - week [6] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In January 2026, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month; the quote of Brazilian Goldfish was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% month - on - month; the quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] - **Import Costs**: In January 2026, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4587 yuan/ton, up 3.66% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% month - on - month. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed certain fluctuations from December 2025 to January 2026 [6] - **Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, up 4.8% month - on - month. The pulp port inventory and futures delivery warehouse inventory also showed different trends from December 2025 to January 2026 [6] - **Demand**: The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. The price of household paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products have been stable. The production of major wood - pulp paper has been stable. From December 2025 to January 2026, the production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, household paper, and white cardboard showed certain fluctuations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The unpleasant odor in Huaihua city, Hunan, is attributed to a malfunction in the wastewater discharge process of the JunTai company, leading to the release of volatile gases [1] Group 1: Incident Description - Multiple citizens reported a strong, unpleasant smell in the city, causing discomfort and confusion, with some mistaking it for a fire [1] - One resident described the severity of the odor, stating it made it difficult to sleep due to the persistent smell [1] Group 2: Official Response - The local hotline, 12345, confirmed that the odor was due to a fault in the JunTai company's equipment related to wastewater discharge [1] - Authorities are currently conducting gas toxicity tests and have guided the company in emergency repairs, although residual odors remain [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - Title: "Paper Pulp: Wide - range Fluctuation 20260113" - Date: January 13, 2026 [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The paper pulp market is in a wide - range fluctuation state. The market supply - demand structure has not changed significantly, and downstream demand remains weak, failing to provide new driving forces. Attention should be paid to the capital trends in the futures market, the actual transaction changes of high - priced broadleaf pulp, port inventory data, downstream orders, and pulp price changes [4][5] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily - session closing price of the paper pulp main contract was 5,490 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan from the previous day), and the night - session closing price was 5,514 yuan/ton (down 34 yuan). The trading volume was 283,615 lots (down 66,346 lots), the holding volume of the 05 contract was 219,104 lots (up 3,624 lots), the warehouse receipt quantity was 142,363 tons (up 5,874 tons), and the net holding volume of the top 20 members was - 29,805 lots (down 2,872 lots) [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "Yinxing - Futures Main" was 60 (up 10), the basis of "Jinyu - Futures Main (Non - standard)" was - 740 (up 60), and the month - spread of SP03 - SP05 was - 30 (up 4) [3] - **Spot Market**: The domestic prices of coniferous pulp brands such as Beimu, Kailipu, Shipai, and Yinxing were 5,800 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, 5,700 yuan/ton, and 5,550 yuan/ton respectively; the domestic prices of broadleaf pulp brands such as Jindao, Mingxing, and Tai were 4,750 yuan/ton, 4,750 yuan/ton, and 4,700 yuan/ton respectively; the domestic price of chemical mechanical pulp brand Kunhe was 3,800 yuan/ton; and the domestic price of natural color pulp brand Jinxing was 5,050 yuan/ton [3] 4.2 Industry News - The futures market fluctuated downward yesterday. The price of coniferous pulp in the spot market weakened, while the price of broadleaf pulp remained at a high - level offer. The actual transactions of high - priced broadleaf pulp were light, and the terminal's acceptance of the current price was gradually weakening [4] - The mainstream price of 70g white offset paper was 4,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of 70g high - white offset paper was 4,750 yuan/ton, remaining flat from the previous day. Factory production did not increase, and the market supply was abundant. Supported by pulp factors, enterprises mostly maintained a price - holding strategy. Downstream consumption was mainly social orders, with low user purchasing enthusiasm, leading to cautious operations by traders [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Guanhao High-tech (600433) has disclosed its shareholder count, which is projected to reach 44,211 households by December 31, 2025 [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Company: Zhongtai Futures Co., Ltd. - Analyst: Gao Ping - Analyst Qualification Number: F3002581 - Transaction Consultation License Number: Z0012806 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The current logic is that the trading sentiment in the spot market has weakened. With the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market is facing pressure from hedging positions. - On the basis of stable fundamentals, the strong price support from the forward overseas market still provides support for domestic pulp spot and forward prices, limiting the downside space of the futures market. - In the long - term, the overseas shipments in January are still decreasing, and there is no significant pressure on short - term arrivals. After the simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices, the spot trading has slightly weakened. As the futures price rises and reaches the risk - free hedging position for some European and Canadian softwood pulp again, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts, upward pressure may emerge. Although the fundamentals have improved, there are no actual factors to drive up the price. - Pulp sentiment remains for now, and it may maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. However, if contradictions in the real - world market gradually accumulate (such as the port inventory turning to accumulation, new warehouse receipts being registered successively, and spot trading weakening) or the macro - sentiment weakens, pulp may shift to a weakly volatile trend. - Strategy recommendation: The commodity sector is improving, and there are still risks in the energy and chemical market due to international situations and macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see during the day. If the spot price is stable and one holds deliverable forward goods at a suitable cost, one can choose to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 05 contract at high prices to meet the risk - free hedging needs at high levels [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1 Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic production: The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp remained basically stable this week. The price of domestic hardwood pulp increased by 150 yuan/ton, but the spot price was stable, and the market had sufficient spot supply. - Import: In November 2025, China's pulp imports were 324.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The cumulative annual imports were 3292.5 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The shipments of softwood and hardwood pulp from pulp - producing countries to China rebounded in November, and it is estimated that the domestic arrivals in January will increase month - on - month [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: Downstream production was stable, with no obvious demand - side drivers. The maintenance equipment for coated paper has resumed normal production, and the production of coated paper has increased slightly. - Inventory: As the spot price became firmer and the downstream replenishment came to an end with reduced willingness, the port inventory gradually shifted to accumulation. Under the high price of far - month contracts, there were hedging opportunities for some low - priced European softwood pulp, and the warehouse receipts in the contracts have increased successively. The downstream finished - product inventory is in a state of shock adjustment [9]. 1.3 Price and Spread - Price: The overseas quotation increased, the spot price of hardwood pulp remained firm with relatively tight market liquidity, and the futures price was also firm. The price of softwood pulp was firm, but the buying demand was weak, and the demand was average. After the large - scale replenishment by major manufacturers ended, the spot trading weakened slightly, but the price remained relatively firm. The trading sentiment in the spot market weakened, and with the successive registration of new warehouse receipts and the price reaching the hedging point for European softwood pulp multiple times, the futures market was facing pressure from hedging positions. The finished - product price remained stable, and there were no price increase notices. - Spread: The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp continued to shrink to a relatively low level, which may drive the digestion of old softwood pulp. The far - month futures price continued to strengthen, and the spread shrank. The futures price corrected, the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [11]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - Cost: The cost of domestic pulp remained stable, and the cost of imported pulp increased due to the increase in overseas prices. - Profit: The profit of domestic pulp is expected to rise slightly. The profit of imported pulp is expected to be further compressed due to the increase in overseas prices. The raw material cost of paper continued to rise. Although the finished - product price also increased, the profit was still affected [13]. Part 2 Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly pulp balance sheet from January 2025 to January 2026, including data on imports, domestic production, total supply, pulp consumption, factory inventory, apparent demand, and inventory (including port inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and total inventory) [19]. Part 3 Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The global pulp shipment volume is analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. - Demand and Inventory: The apparent demand and inventory in Europe are analyzed, but specific data is not provided in the text. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Analyzes various aspects of supply, including pulp imports, softwood pulp imports, hardwood pulp imports, softwood pulp imports by country, imports of chemimechanical pulp and unbleached pulp, and imports of softwood and hardwood chips, and provides historical data from 2022 - 2025 [33][37][40]. - Demand: Analyzes pulp apparent demand and downstream finished - product paper (including toilet paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard), and provides information on the planned production capacity of some paper mills [73][88]. - Inventory: Analyzes pulp total inventory, including the sum of port inventory and warehouse receipt inventory [117]. Part 4 Cost and Profit - Analyzes the import cost and profit of pulp and the production cost and profit of domestic pulp [125][128]. Part 5 Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Analyzes pulp overseas quotations, spot price seasonality, spot spread seasonality, basis, and the seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread of the SP main contract [132][137][141]

Group 1 - The paper sector experienced a rise of 0.55% on January 12, with Qifeng New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] - Key stocks in the paper sector showed significant increases, with Qifeng New Materials rising by 5.21% to a closing price of 68.8, and Changxing Paper Industry increasing by 4.14% to 5.79 [1] Group 2 - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 85.15 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 139 million yuan [2] - Individual stocks like Shanying International and Bohui Paper experienced varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor categories [3] - Shanying International had a major fund net outflow of 25.60 million yuan, while Bohui Paper saw a net inflow of 15.72 million yuan from major funds [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the pulp industry is that it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a trading strategy of a unilateral oscillating operation and an arbitrage strategy of paying attention to overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is currently affected by macro - commodity sentiment, with limited internal drivers. Supply shows some strength, demand is neutral, and inventory is also neutral. Overall, the pulp is expected to oscillate within a certain range [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply is strong. Chile's Arauco Company's January offer for coniferous pulp is 710 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the offer for broad - leaf pulp Star is 590 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; and the offer for natural pulp Venus is 620 US dollars/ton, remaining flat [3]. - **Demand**: The demand is neutral. This week, the prices of household paper and white cardboard have slightly increased, while the prices of other paper products are stable. In the fourth quarter, the overall paper production increased due to the peak demand season [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory in China's mainstream pulp ports is 200.7 tons, up 1.0 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, showing a continuous inventory accumulation trend [3]. - **Investment View**: The pulp is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the significant impact of macro - commodity sentiment and limited internal drivers [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate. For arbitrage, pay attention to overseas pulp mill inventory and domestic finished paper prices [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: The pulp futures have been oscillating this week. Affected by macro - commodity sentiment and with limited internal drivers, it is expected to trade between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton. The price of broad - leaf pulp has increased, and the basis of coniferous pulp has changed. The external offer of coniferous pulp has also increased [6][14][16]. - **Position Change**: As of January 12, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts is 307109 lots, up 0.2% from last week, and the position of the main pulp futures contract is 215480 lots, up 4.3% from last week [18]. 3.3 Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased significantly. The total pulp import volume is 3246000 tons, up 23.99%; the coniferous pulp import volume is 725000 tons, up 4.92%; the broad - leaf pulp import volume is 1765000 tons, up 33.88%; and the broad - leaf wood chip import volume is 1490000 tons, up 55.69% [4]. - **Inventory**: The pulp inventory in ports has rebounded, and a large number of new warehouse receipts have been registered. As of January 8, 2026, the port inventory is 200.7 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory is 10450 tons, up 4.3% [3][4]. Overseas pulp mill inventory days are generally stable, with the inventory of 20 major countries at 46 days at the end of November [36]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of January 9, 2026, the prices of household paper and white cardboard have slightly increased, while other paper prices are stable. In December 2025, the production of paper products increased significantly month - on - month. The inventory of double - offset paper has increased, and the available days have also increased. The production cost of double - offset paper has increased, and the gross profit has decreased. In Europe, the demand for pulp has increased, and the inventory has decreased [39][48][62]. - **Price Difference**: As of January 9, 2026, the basis of Shandong Silver Star has weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread is basically stable [80].