Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue continues to disrupt the market, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US has led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite, but the escalation of China-US tariffs is beneficial for gold. - The US dollar index has weakened due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries by Trump, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - The stock index futures market has been boosted by China's tariff countermeasures against the US, but the subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - The commodity market is generally under pressure. The prices of palm oil, coal, iron ore, and some energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and tariff policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Event: Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10%. - Review: Gold prices soared by over 3%, once rising by over $100, setting a record for the largest single - day increase. The suspension of tariffs increased market risk appetite, but the escalation of China - US tariffs is beneficial for gold. Gold is a good tool to hedge against the decline in the US dollar's credit. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach in the short - term volatile market [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Event: Summers warned that the US is far from out of danger and has lost a lot of credibility. The Fed meeting minutes showed that the US economy faces risks. Trump suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries. - Review: The suspension of tariffs led to a significant rebound in market risk appetite, causing the US dollar index to weaken. The reciprocal tariffs are in a temporary adjustment phase, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. The Fed meeting minutes showed that inflation is slightly high and economic uncertainty has increased. Trump suspended tariffs on some countries but raised tariffs on China to 125%. - Review: The China - US tariff negotiation is at a deadlock, and policy uncertainty remains high. The financial market is volatile, and the risk of a liquidity shock has not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach and avoid chasing high prices [20][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Event: The Chinese Premier held a symposium on the economic situation. China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. - Review: The A - share market rebounded, and market sentiment was boosted. However, subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - averse approach in the short term [23][24][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Event: China released a white paper on China - US economic and trade relations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 111 billion yuan. - Review: The main logic of the treasury bond market is clear. The probability of a short - term easing of trade conflicts is low, and the expectation of loose monetary policy is difficult to be falsified. The upward trend of treasury bonds is likely to continue. - Investment advice: Hold positions and wait for the implementation of loose policies, or add positions on dips [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Event: Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export tariffs to 0% to offset the impact of US tariffs. - Review: The global market sentiment is low, and the price of palm oil has fallen. China's counter - tariffs on the US may be beneficial for far - month soybean oil. The possibility of Indonesia reducing palm oil export tariffs is low. - Investment advice: Consider closing previous short positions and pay attention to the MPOB report [30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Event: As of the end of March, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased, and India's cotton planting area may increase. The CCI has purchased a large amount of cotton, and its sales volume is not high. - Review: The CCI's purchase and sales situation, as well as the trade war, may affect India's cotton production, consumption, and import estimates. The price of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen, but the decline may slow down. - Investment advice: The cotton price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to macro - policies, planting, weather, and industry conditions in major producing countries [32][35][37]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Event: China's coal demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025. - Review: The coal price has been relatively stable. The power plant's inventory is at a neutral level, and the price is expected to be supported in May but lacks elasticity. - Investment advice: The power plant may replenish coal inventory in May, but the price increase is limited [38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Event: JFE Steel in Japan plans to shut down a blast furnace, reducing its annual crude steel production capacity by about 4 million tons. - Review: The black metal market has continued to decline, but the short - term deterioration of fundamentals is not severe. Pay attention to the risk of liquidity. - Investment advice: Maintain a bearish approach and wait for a better opportunity to short after a rebound [39][40][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Event: The coking coal market in East China has remained stable. Some coal mines in Shanxi have reduced production, and downstream coke enterprises have started to increase prices. - Review: The coking coal spot market has improved, but the futures market faces pressure. The coke spot market may continue to increase prices, but the medium - long - term supply is expected to be loose. - Investment advice: The spot market has stabilized, but the futures market faces pressure from subsequent demand and warehouse receipts [42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Event: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased significantly, but inventory has only decreased slightly. - Review: High raw material prices and weak downstream demand have led to a decrease in the operating rate. The futures price difference between corn starch and corn is expected to remain stable. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 price difference is expected to remain around the normal processing fee of 380 yuan [44][45][47]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Event: The inventory at northern ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the price of corn in the production area is relatively firm. - Review: The outflow of corn from Northeast China has accelerated, and the weak basis has suppressed the futures price. The 07 contract is considered undervalued. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to whether the acceleration of inventory reduction in Northeast China can boost trader sentiment [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Event: The retail sales of passenger cars in March increased significantly year - on - year. - Review: The steel price has rebounded, and market sentiment has improved. However, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is declining slowly. - Investment advice: Adopt a cautious approach in the short term and hedge on the spot market when prices are high [49][50][51]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Event: The sales volume of three major listed pig enterprises increased in March, and the average selling price slightly increased. - Review: The short - term fluctuation of pig prices has increased, but it will eventually return to the fundamental situation. The spot price may face downward pressure. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Event: Yunnan Nengtou Group's Yongchang Silicon's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon project was put into operation. Some production capacity in Xinjiang was reduced, and some new production capacity in the southwest is expected to be put into operation. - Review: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change. - Investment advice: The futures price may range from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [55][56][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Event: The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the price of refined lead decreased. - Review: The lead price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Although the medium - term outlook is bullish, macro risks have not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for buying opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [58][59][60]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Event: The blockade of Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru was suspended. Codelco plans to significantly increase copper production this year. Indonesia will increase mining royalties. - Review: The short - term macro factors have a relatively uncertain impact on copper prices. The short - term supply and demand in China are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper [61][62][64]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Event: The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. - Review: The zinc price is mainly affected by macro factors. The market is cautious, and the export of zinc may be suppressed. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [65][66][67]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Event: An Australian company produced the first batch of lithium carbonate in Argentina. Argentina plans to increase lithium production by 75% in 2025. - Review: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price may continue to decline in the long term. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Event: Indonesia will increase mining and coal royalties in the second week of April. - Review: The nickel price has slightly decreased, and the cost is expected to increase marginally. The market may digest negative sentiment. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips after the release of negative sentiment [71][72]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports to 84%. The US C3 inventory started to accumulate. - Review: The PG price has decreased, but it may strengthen due to the increase in tariffs and the recovery of crude oil prices. However, policy uncertainty should be noted. - Investment advice: The domestic market may experience a valuation - repair market, but reduce risk exposure and participate cautiously [73][74][75]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Event: The US EIA crude oil inventory increased. Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs. - Review: The oil price has rebounded, but there is still a risk of decline due to the uncertainty of the tariff issue and the OPEC+ production policy. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short term and still has a downward risk [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - Event: The tariff war has escalated, and the demand for PTA is uncertain. - Review: The PTA price has decreased, and the demand for polyester is affected by tariffs. The impact on PTA pricing is relatively lagged. - Investment advice: The PTA price will mainly follow the crude oil price in the short term and is expected to be weakly volatile [77][78]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Event: The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. - Review: The styrene price has reached a new low and then rebounded. The downstream inventory may accumulate, and the production profit may not be sustainable. - Investment advice: The eb - bz spread may expand in the short term and contract in the long term [78][79]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - Event: The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the supply was stable while the demand was weak. - Review: The caustic soda price is expected to decline, and the market is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [80][82][83]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - Event: The price of imported wood pulp decreased. - Review: The pulp price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [84]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - Event: The spot price of PVC powder decreased. - Review: The PVC price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [85]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Event: The export price of bottle chips decreased, and a polyester bottle chip device in East China restarted. - Review: The bottle chip price has decreased, and the processing fee has been passively repaired, but it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range. - Investment advice: The bottle chip price will follow the cost side and be weakly volatile in the short term [86][88][89]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Event: The price of soda ash in the East China market was adjusted slightly. - Review: The soda ash price is in a low - level oscillation, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is general. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium term [90]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Event: The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. - Review: The float glass price is mainly affected by demand. Although there may be an improvement in the second - quarter demand, the upward space is limited. - Investment advice: The float glass price will be in a low - level range in the short term. Pay attention to buying opportunities on large dips [91][92][93].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hainan Mining is "Accumulate-A" with a 6-month target price of 8.74 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 7.23 CNY [6]. Core Views - The report highlights rapid growth in oil and gas operations, with a focus on the integrated lithium industry chain entering a production phase in 2025 [1][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.066 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 13.11% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 12.97% to 706 million CNY [1]. - The report anticipates revenue growth in the coming years, projecting 5.359 billion CNY in 2025, 6.227 billion CNY in 2026, and 6.087 billion CNY in 2027 [11]. Summary by Sections Iron Ore Business - The average price for iron ore in 2024 was 109.5 USD/ton, down 9% year-on-year, but the company maintained a premium of approximately 16% over market prices [2]. - The production volume for finished ore was 2.18 million tons, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, primarily due to extreme weather and safety inspections [2]. - The company aims to produce 2.4 million tons of finished ore in 2025, introducing higher-grade iron concentrate products [2]. Oil and Gas Business - The average Brent crude oil price in 2024 was 79.9 USD/barrel, down 3% year-on-year [3]. - The company achieved a record equity production of 8.095 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, a 29.3% increase year-on-year [3]. - Plans for 2025 include reaching an equity production target of 10.74 million barrels of oil equivalent, with significant contributions from the Bajiao Field and Malaysia oil fields [3]. Lithium Industry - The Bougouni lithium mine's first phase is in trial production, with plans for formal production following compliance checks [4]. - The lithium hydroxide project has successfully completed trial runs, with expectations for qualified product output by April 2025 [4]. - The company targets a lithium concentrate production of 130,000 tons and sales of 120,000 tons in 2025 [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 767 million CNY in 2025, 821 million CNY in 2026, and 872 million CNY in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.38, 0.41, and 0.44 CNY per share [11]. - The projected PE ratios for the next three years are 18.9, 17.6, and 16.6 times, indicating a favorable valuation trend [11].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 农产品 | ★★★★ | 农产品：此次美国对全球加征对等关税是历史性的大事件;加征幅度超预期;各国大概率会不同 程度反制，不确定性极高。由于这一次是对全球加征关税，因此不能完全用 2018 年的思路 去看待。农产品方面,美国大豆、玉米和棉花出口占全球出口份额比较高，大豆 27%、玉米 33%、棉花 26%，美国出口下降预期已经推高巴西现货升水，对销区的成本上升的影响较大， 且大概率是持续性的影响。大豆方面，虽然榨利较高，但是下游仍有养殖利润，承接力度较 强，囤库意愿较高。风险:全球高关税带来的经济衰退预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 短线或继续大跌，长线关注超跌反弹机会 观点分享： 外盘油价较上周五累计暴跌近 14%，内盘跌停概率较大。短期市场极度恐慌，其中 Brent 或继续交易衰退考验 55 美元/桶，中长期关注企稳筑底后的多配机会。理由：第一， 短期看，市场交易主要大国、经济体之间关税互征引发的通缩，恐慌情绪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The subsequent trend of iron ore prices is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products. The market sentiment has warmed up, and the prices of ferrous metals have risen collectively. The high - elasticity iron ore prices have increased significantly. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively good, with strong demand from steel mills, but there is a need to guard against the implementation of steel market supply - constraint policies. The supply of iron ore remains at a relatively high level, and the improvement of the fundamentals is limited, with weak upward driving force [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the market sentiment has warmed up, leading to a strengthening of ore prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up, and ferrous metals have risen collectively. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively good. Steel mills have good profits and are actively producing during the peak season, resulting in strong ore demand, which supports the ore price. However, there is a need to guard against the implementation of steel market supply - constraint policies. The port arrivals have continued to decline, but overseas miners' production has reached a high level, and subsequent arrivals are expected to increase according to shipping schedules. The supply of foreign and domestic ores is stable, and the supply side remains at a relatively high level. In the situation of increasing supply and demand, the improvement of the iron ore fundamentals is limited, and the upward driving force is weak [3].

国投期货研究院 . 以下文章来源于国投期货研究院 ，作者韩倞 国投期货研究院团队倾力打造，专注热门期货品种分析。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 韩倞 来源 | 黑产掘金俱乐部 编辑 | 杨兰 近期铁矿石期货下跌幅度较大，我们认为这一方面与外围贸易摩擦升温，粗钢出口受到的扰动加剧有关外，另一方面也是受到了今年将执行粗 钢产量大幅压减传闻的影响。我们想尝试通过对比2021年和2025年铁矿石基本面的异同，来分析如果今年依然存在相关政策的话，铁矿石的供 需和走势将会如何演变。 供应进入扩产周期 从供应端来看，2021年铁矿石供应增长3000万吨左右，主要得益于淡水河谷逐步走出前期矿难影响而带来了产量的提升，此外上半年的 高矿价也刺激了中小矿山发运的增加，印度发运增速一度接近60%。不过随着下半年粗钢限产政策的执行，海外铁矿石供应随着中国需求 的下滑也开始走弱，特别是非主流矿山的供应在矿价下跌后收缩明显，其他国家需求的增长并不能弥补掉国内需求下滑的减量，最终 2021年全球铁矿石供应虽然出现增长但仍然不及市场的预期，而我国铁矿石进口增速也创下了近十多年来最大幅度的下滑。 2025年铁矿石供应同样存在增长预期，不 ...

观点聚焦 理由 秘鲁：宏观环境稳定，社区关系逐步改善 。 秘鲁铜矿资源禀赋优异，索尔币值稳定、经贸政策开放，但社区关系是其主要挑战。本次调研我们观察到当地 中资矿企的国际化管理和ESG融合能力正在显著提升，对改善经营的稳定性有重要意义。 巴西：优异资源禀赋和规模经济带来显著的成本优势。 巴西锂矿 成本具备全球竞争力，我们认为主要来源于不输澳矿的资源禀赋、显著优于非洲的基础设施配套以及与中国相似的低要素成本优势。此外，巴西拥有丰富且 优质的铁矿和桉树资源，铁矿石矿端成本以及阔叶浆现金成本均处于全球低位。 阿根廷：经济改革将是阿根廷矿业发展的核心变量。 我们认为在积极的情 况下经济改革有望带来更低的通胀、更宽松的审批环境、更稳定的税收政策、更少的贸易管制，有望驱动阿根廷盐湖的成本上涨放缓、盈利能力增强、投资 力度加大和开发效率提升。 如何理解中资矿企在南美的国际化？ 相比非洲，南美国家呈现经济发展程度较高、基础设施配套较好、欧美和本土矿企竞争激烈以及"小政府、大社区"的 特征。如果说中资矿企在非洲国际化的本质是在非洲的"中国化"，那么中资矿企在南美国际化的本质则是在南美的"本土化"，这需要更高阶的国际化能力。 一 ...

靠着千亿新目标 奔赴迈进 尊敬的各位来宾投资者朋友们大家下午好我是大中矿业证券事务代表李云娥我仅代表公司向到场的各位投资者朋友表示热烈的欢迎和衷心的祝福很高兴今天大家能汇聚一堂共同见证大中矿业的发展和进步在此我宣布大中矿业2024年年度业绩说明会正式开始 下面由我向大家介绍今天出席会议的公司领导他们分别是大众矿业董事长牛郭峰先生大众矿业董事总经理林普生先生大众矿业董事会秘书林普正先生首先有请大众矿业董事长牛郭峰先生为本次活动致辞 尊敬的各位嘉宾投资者媒体朋友们大家好首先我谨代表大宗矿业董事会及全体同仁对各位在百忙中参加公司2024年度业绩说明会表示热烈欢迎和衷心感谢2024年在铁金粉价格下降财务费用增加的不利影响下大宗矿业聚焦全年各项任务目标 实现净利润7.51亿元铁矿方面铁晶粉产量稳重有增铁矿增储实现突破新增铁矿资源量1.74亿吨累计资源量6.9亿吨巩固了铁矿上市公司龙头地位并为安徽两矿扩展计改奠定了坚实的资源基础 铝矿方面 湖南鸡角山铝矿顺利通过自然资源部评审备案其备案铝资源量和碳酸锂当量约为324万吨国内铝矿资源量排名靠前轴创顿沟机用于铝矿裁选连接隧道的掘进铝创单月进尺超千米的世界纪录是传统掘进效率的1 ...

新疆宝地矿业股份有限公司 Xinjiang Baodi Mining Co., Ltd. （新疆乌鲁木齐市克拉玛依东街 390 号深圳城大厦 15 楼） 首次公开发行股票（A 股） 招股说明书摘要 保荐机构（主承销商） （新疆乌鲁木齐市高新区（新市区）北京南路 358 号大成国际大厦 20 楼 2004 室） 发行人声明 本招股说明书摘要的目的仅为向公众提供有关本次发行的简要情况，并不包 括招股说明书全文的各部分内容。招股说明书全文同时刊载于上海证券交易所网 站。投资者在做出认购决定之前，应仔细阅读招股说明书全文，并以其作为投资 决定的依据。 投资者若对本招股说明书及其摘要存在任何疑问，应咨询自己的股票经纪 人、律师、会计师或其他专业顾问。 发行人及全体董事、监事、高级管理人员承诺招股说明书及其摘要不存在虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并对招股说明书及其摘要的真实性、准确性、 完整性承担个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责人和主管会计工作的负责人、会计机构负责人保证招股说明书及其 摘要中财务会计资料真实、完整。 保荐人承诺因其为发行人首次公开发行制作、出具的文件有虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏，给投资者造成 ...

新疆宝地矿业股份有限公司 Xinjiang Baodi Mining Co., Ltd. （新疆乌鲁木齐市克拉玛依东街 390 号深圳城大厦 15 楼） 首次公开发行股票（A 股） 招股意向书摘要 保荐机构（主承销商） （新疆乌鲁木齐市高新区（新市区）北京南路 358 号大成国际大厦 20 楼 2004 室） 发行人声明 本招股意向书摘要的目的仅为向公众提供有关本次发行的简要情况，并不包 括招股意向书全文的各部分内容。招股意向书全文同时刊载于上海证券交易所网 站。投资者在做出认购决定之前，应仔细阅读招股意向书全文，并以其作为投资 决定的依据。 投资者若对本招股意向书及其摘要存在任何疑问，应咨询自己的股票经纪 人、律师、会计师或其他专业顾问。 发行人及全体董事、监事、高级管理人员承诺招股意向书及其摘要不存在虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并对招股意向书及其摘要的真实性、准确性、 完整性承担个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责人和主管会计工作的负责人、会计机构负责人保证招股意向书及其 摘要中财务会计资料真实、完整。 保荐人承诺因其为发行人首次公开发行制作、出具的文件有虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏，给投资者造成 ...