Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Ganyuan Foods is experiencing short-term performance pressure but anticipates gradual improvement in subsequent quarters, maintaining a "buy" rating for the stock [1]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Ganyuan Foods reported operating revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 376 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 341 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 22.18%, 14.32%, and 16.91% respectively [2]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 652 million yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 99 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 93 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 22.05% but declines in net profit of -13.91% and -10.4% respectively [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 504 million yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 53 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 46 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of -13.99%, -42.21%, and -45.14% respectively [2]. Investment Highlights - The company is focusing on stabilizing its existing products while expanding its new product offerings, with revenue contributions from various product lines such as mixed nuts and beans showing growth rates of 39.80%, 12.56%, 10.48%, 19.72%, and 21.17% respectively [3]. - Ganyuan Foods is restructuring its product strategy by upgrading its flavor offerings in beans, nuts, and snacks, launching new products to enhance market presence and channel compatibility [3]. - The company is also diversifying its sales channels, with revenue from distribution, e-commerce, and other channels growing by 22.58%, 10.75%, and 65.45% respectively [3]. Profitability and Cost Management - In 2024, Ganyuan Foods reported a gross margin of 35.46% and a net profit margin of 16.67%, both showing slight declines compared to the previous year [4]. - The company faced increased cost pressures due to rising raw material prices, particularly palm oil, and higher expenses related to overseas market expansion and branding [4]. - For Q1 2025, the gross margin and net profit margin further declined to 34.32% and 10.47% respectively, attributed to increased sales and management expenses [4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand into new Southeast Asian markets, including Indonesia and Malaysia, with localized product designs expected to launch around May 2025 [5]. - Ganyuan Foods aims to enhance its e-commerce presence and deepen collaborations with platforms like Tmall and JD.com to drive sales growth [5]. - Cost management strategies include locking in prices for raw materials and increasing direct sourcing to optimize costs, with expectations for profitability to improve in the latter part of the year [5]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.677 billion yuan and 3.102 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 18.61% and 15.86% respectively [6]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised to 402 million yuan and 496 million yuan, indicating year-on-year growth of 6.86% and 23.34% respectively [6]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years at 4.31, 5.32, and 6.34 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times [6].

前白宫国家经济委员会主任警告，美国关税政策的全面影响将在5月底显现，直接冲击消费品供应和价 格。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间4月27日，曾在特朗普第一个总统任期内担任白宫国家经济委员会主任的加 里·科恩（Gary Cohn）表示，美国目前关税政策的影响将在下个月底开始在全国范围内显现，这一预测 是基于货物运输和分发所需的时间。 科恩说，收入水平及经济实力较低的人群将把100%的薪水都用于购买商品，而富人会存储更高比例的 收入。这意味着关税将对低收入美国人产生更大影响。 各大消费品公司的一季度财报时也印证了这一点：尽管一季度尚可，但对二季度的展望普遍悲观。从快 餐连锁Chipotle、零食巨头百事可乐，到航空公司，乃至高端奢侈品牌LVMH，都发出了销售放缓的警 告。消费者正从市场撤退，仅购买必需品或那些他们认为"今天不买明天会更贵"的商品。 关税冲击波五月底将全面显现，低收入家庭首当其冲 科恩在采访中表示，举例来说，一件商品从中国装船，漂洋过海，在美国卸货、分发至零售货架，大约 需要八周时间——这意味着4月2日生效的关税，其实际效果将在5月的最后几周才真正被市场感受到。 科恩反复强调，关税具有高度的"累退性"。他 ...

丨2025年4月28日星期一丨 NO.4霸王茶姬首家北美门店试运营 4月26日，霸王茶姬首家北美门店正式对外试运营，选址位于美国洛杉矶人气商场Westfield Century City，紧邻比佛利山庄和西洛杉矶等重要区域。霸王茶姬于2019年布局全球化，目前，霸王茶姬在马来 西亚、新加坡、印尼等东南亚国家已有上百家门店。 4月27日，据网络平台数据，截至4月27日6时，2025年"五一"档新片预售总票房破2000万元，《水饺皇 后》《猎金.游戏》《人生开门红》分列前三位。《熊孩子.探险熊兵》宣布档期变更。该片原定于5月1 日13:00全国上映，现片方决定改档至7月5日10:00。 点评："五一"档作为春节档后的首个长假期，已成为片方争夺票房的重要窗口。此次预售表现反映出观 众对于优质影视作品的观影热情依然高涨，这对于影视行业来说是积极的信号，表明市场在经历一定波 动后仍具备较强的复苏动力。 NO.3三只松鼠向港交所提交上市申请书 4月25日，休闲零食企业三只松鼠（300783）向港交所提交上市申请书，公司正式开始冲击"A+H"两地 上市。2025年4月25日，三只松鼠日涨幅1.54%，收于29.75元每股， ...

Core Viewpoint - Three Squirrels has submitted an application for a Hong Kong IPO, aiming to become the first snack brand in China to achieve dual listing on A-share and H-share markets, with plans to use the raised funds for global supply chain enhancement, channel expansion, digital capabilities, and strategic investments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2022-2024, Three Squirrels reported revenues of 72.93 billion RMB, 71.15 billion RMB, and 106.22 billion RMB respectively, with net profits increasing from 1.29 billion RMB to 4.08 billion RMB [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 139.8 billion RMB in 2024, ranking fourth in China's snack industry, following Mars, Mondelez, and PepsiCo [2] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Since April 2022, Three Squirrels has halted store expansion, focusing on closing underperforming stores and enhancing distribution and self-production [4] - The company has introduced a "high-end cost-performance" strategy and a "full-category + full-channel" development approach, launching over 600 new standard product units (SPUs) in 2024 [5] Group 3: Product and Brand Development - The main revenue source remains nuts, but its contribution has decreased from 56.3% in 2022 to 50.5% in 2024, while the revenue from other snacks has increased significantly [5] - The "Three Squirrels" brand saw a 50.57% revenue growth in 2024, while the "Little Deer Blue" brand, targeting children's snacks, achieved profitability and ranked among the top three in its category [6] Group 4: Channel Strategy - Revenue from short video platforms has surged from 7.17 billion RMB in 2022 to 26.35 billion RMB in 2024, increasing its share from 9.8% to 24.8% [7] - The company has reduced its offline store count from 1,065 in 2021 to 333 by the end of 2024, with offline store revenue declining during this period [8] Group 5: Future Outlook and Challenges - Three Squirrels plans to invest up to 360 million RMB to acquire control of new snack brands, aiming to expand its offline presence to over 2,000 stores [9] - The company targets a revenue of 20 billion RMB by 2026, indicating significant growth ambitions despite current challenges in maintaining its revenue structure [9] - Sales expenses increased by 50.92% in 2024, outpacing revenue growth, while overall gross margins have fluctuated, indicating potential pressure on profitability [10]

溜溜果园集团股份有限公司（以下简称"溜溜果园"）于2025年4月16日向港交所递交上市申请，这是继 2019年撤回A股上市后的第二次冲击。作为中国果类零食行业市占率第一的企业，其核心产品"溜溜 梅"凭借"你没事吧？没事就吃溜溜梅"的广告语一度成为国民零食。然而，招股书数据背后，毛利率下 滑、红杉资本清仓离场、产品质量争议等问题，为此次IPO增添不确定性。 质量争议与营销"赌注" 黑猫投诉平台现存400余条与溜溜梅相关的投诉，涉及产品发霉、包装异物、空包等问题。例如，有消 费者称"购买的溜溜梅6味蒟蒻梅冻分享装未食用已发霉"。这与公司研发投入收缩形成对比：2022-2024 年研发费用率从1.8%降至1.2%，同期广告开支却累计达2.2亿元，2024年明星代言支出占净利润71%。 资本退潮与创始人控股 溜溜果园的资本故事始于2013年。彼时，明星杨幂代言的广告让品牌迅速出圈，并吸引红杉资本等机构 入局。招股书显示，北京红杉原为第三大股东，持股13.99%，但2024年6月双方签订股份回购协议， 2025年1月完成减资登记后，红杉彻底退出。创始人杨帆及其妻子李慧敏的合计持股比例升至87.77%， 形成高度集中的股 ...

整理 ｜ 彭倩 #Big News# 增长压力之下，雀巢中国换帅 雀巢中国的首位本土 CEO 卸任。 近日，雀巢宣布现任雀巢大中华区董事长兼 CEO 张西强辞任，由现任菲律宾市场负责人马凯思 （Kais Marzouki）接替。这是雀巢集团自去年10月宣布不再将中国市场设立为独立大区后（今年1 月1日起生效），推出的一项人事调整举措。 由于中国市场曾表现颇佳，雀巢曾在2022年为其单独设立大中华区，张西强同年成为雀巢中国首位 本土CEO。中国是雀巢的第二大市场，一直被寄予厚望，张西强在上任时也曾为雀巢中国制定较为乐 观的增长计划：雀巢中国区要在2025年实现600亿小目标，在2030年实现1000亿大目标。 翻看过去3年的财报，雀巢中国区的体量分别为401.6亿元、436亿元和408.69亿元，遇到增长瓶 颈，与张西强曾制定的2025年达到600亿的目标也相差较大。 如今，全球消费市场正处于周期性波动，雀巢在内的一系列外资企业都需要更好的让产品适应当地市 场消费者需求和习惯的变化。 雀巢曾公开表示对中国市场的反思，前 CEO 施耐德曾表示，过去10年，雀巢在中国多项投资没有成 功，如对花生牛奶品牌银鹭的收购， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the retail sales growth rate rebounded month-on-month in March, reflecting strengthened expectations for consumption policies [3][4] - The food and beverage index declined by 1.4% from April 21 to April 25, ranking 28th among primary sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.7 percentage points [12][14] - The allocation ratio of food and beverage in funds decreased from 10.6% in Q4 2024 to 9.8% in Q1 2025, marking a new low since 2020 [12][14] - The report highlights that the snack sector performed relatively well, with companies like Salted Fish and West Oat Food achieving significant revenue growth [4][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Funds reduced their allocation to food and beverage but concentrated their holdings, with the snack sector showing relatively strong performance [12] - The food and beverage index underperformed the market, with snacks (+4.5%), soft drinks (+2.2%), and other alcoholic beverages (+0.1%) leading the sub-industry performance [12][14] Market Performance - The food and beverage index fell by 1.4%, ranking 28th out of 28 industries, and lagged behind the CSI 300 by about 1.7 percentage points [12][14] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of whole milk powder increasing by 28.7% year-on-year, while fresh milk prices fell by 10.7% year-on-year [17][22] Alcohol Industry News - Wuliangye is set to launch 17 new product series, indicating ongoing innovation in the sector [43] Memorandum - Attention is drawn to the upcoming Q1 report disclosure of Kweichow Moutai on April 30 [44]

食品饮料 2025 年 04 月 27 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025Q1 食品饮料仓位持续回落，白 酒 集 中 持 仓 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.4.24 《社零数据转暖，政策预期升温—行 业周报》-2025.4.20 《3 月社零增速环比回升，消费保持温 和复苏—行业点评报告》-2025.4.17 基金持仓更加集中，零食板块表现较好 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 核心观点：3 月社零增速环比回升，释放消费政策预期加强 4 月 21 日-4 月 25 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 1.4%，一级子行业排名第 28，跑输 沪深 300 约 1.7pct，子行业中零食（+4.5%）、软饮料（+2.2%）、其他酒类（+0.1%） 表现相对领先。本周基金一季报持仓情况公布，从基金重仓持股情况来 ...

Core Viewpoint - Three Squirrels has officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its international strategy and brand image while optimizing its capital structure [1][2]. Company Overview - Three Squirrels ranks fourth in the domestic snack market, with sales trailing only Mars, Mondelēz International, and PepsiCo, making it the leading Chinese company in this sector [1][2]. - Founded in 2012 in Wuhu, Anhui, by Zhang Liaoyuan, the company initially thrived through e-commerce, focusing on nuts and leveraging the Alibaba ecosystem [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 72.93 billion RMB, 71.15 billion RMB, and 106.23 billion RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits of 1.29 billion RMB, 2.20 billion RMB, and 4.08 billion RMB [3]. - After experiencing four years of revenue decline, Three Squirrels saw a significant recovery in performance last year [2][3]. Market Position - In 2024, Three Squirrels held a market share of 1.04% in the Chinese snack industry, with retail sales of 13.98 billion RMB, ranking fourth behind Mars, Mondelēz, and PepsiCo [6][7]. - The top five companies in the snack market accounted for only 5.9% of the total market share, indicating a highly fragmented industry [7]. Product and Revenue Breakdown - The company has shifted to a "full-category + full-channel" strategy, with over half of its revenue still coming from nuts, although this segment's share has slightly decreased [8][10]. - Revenue from nuts increased from 41.07 billion RMB in 2022 to 53.66 billion RMB in 2024, while the share dropped from 56.3% to 50.5% [9]. - Revenue from short video platforms has surged, with income from these channels rising from 7.17 billion RMB in 2022 to 26.35 billion RMB in 2024 [5][10]. Sales Channels - Online sales remain the primary revenue source, accounting for approximately 70% of total income, with significant growth from platforms like Douyin [10][11]. - The company has closed numerous physical stores, reducing its total from 1,065 in 2021 to 333 by the end of 2024, while focusing on enhancing its distribution network [11][12]. Strategic Initiatives - The funds raised from the IPO will be used to strengthen the supply chain, enhance sales networks, and expand product offerings [13]. - Three Squirrels is also pursuing a multi-brand strategy, investing in various food categories, including dairy and pet food [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Three Squirrels, is recognized as an innovator and representative of the "full category + full channel" business model in China's internet era, aiming to provide high-quality products at competitive prices to consumers [4]. Group 1: Business Model and Market Position - Three Squirrels has evolved from a single nut category to become the largest Chinese-owned snack company, with a projected sales growth rate making it the fastest-growing company among the top five snack firms from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - The "full category + full channel" approach addresses unmet consumer demands, offering better quality and brand recognition compared to major brands and superior product quality compared to private labels, leading to rapid revenue growth [4]. - The company's digital management, rooted in its internet origins, creates a unique competitive barrier and significantly reduces the marginal costs of category innovation [4]. Group 2: Product Portfolio and Innovation - The product range includes nuts, baked goods, snack combinations, meat products, and dried fruits, with over 1,000 Stock Keeping Units (SKUs) available by the end of 2024, including more than 600 new SKUs launched in 2024 [5]. - The company continuously anticipates and responds to market demands and consumer preferences by launching new products under various brands [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The revenue figures for Three Squirrels are approximately 7.29 billion RMB in 2022, 7.11 billion RMB in 2023, and projected at 10.62 billion RMB in 2024, indicating a significant increase [5][7]. - The net profit for the same years is reported as approximately 129 million RMB in 2022, 220 million RMB in 2023, and 407 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [5][7]. - The gross profit margin has improved from 26.2% in 2022 to 23.8% in 2024, despite fluctuations in sales costs [7].