Group 1 - The overall performance of ETFs showed mixed results, with mining ETFs leading the gains at 1.70% [1] - Gold stock ETFs also performed well, increasing by 1.54% [1] - Commodity ETFs rose by 1.37%, indicating a positive trend in this sector [1] Group 2 - On the downside, the biotechnology vaccine ETFs experienced the largest decline, falling by 1.67% [1] - Financial technology ETFs also faced losses, with a drop of 1.67% and 1.56% respectively [1]

中国需求与巴西供给之间的这种契合形成了一个"联盟"，并随着全球地缘政治紧张局势加剧而不断深 化。当西方大国加大对中国施压，并试图迫使各国选边站时，巴西提供了自然资源、农业产品和制度稳 定性，中国以市场、投资和工业技术作为回应。 巴西应利用这些优势吸引中国在基础设施领域的投资。日益深化的战略关系为双方洽谈具有变革性的项 目创造了机遇。两洋铁路将连接大西洋和太平洋，途经巴西和秘鲁并接入钱凯港，而这仅仅是一个开 始。巴西可以吸引高铁、地铁系统和轻型轨道交通等投资，从而彻底革新国内的城市交通系统。 正如孔子所言："有朋自远方来，不亦乐乎？"在巴中伙伴关系中，这种友谊已转化为真正的地缘政 治"血脉契约"，其基础是共同的关键需求和共享的未来愿景。（作者米格尔·多·罗萨里奥，肖攀译） 巴西Ocafezinho新闻网6月3日文章，原题：巴西和中国之间的"血脉契约" 巴西和中国之间的关系继续以 非同寻常的方式深化。2025年前4个月（1月至4月），巴西对中国的出口总额约285亿美元，占同期巴西 出口总额的26.5%。巴西出口到中国的主要产品是大豆、石油、铁矿石和牛肉。 这不仅仅关乎贸易，因为这些并非普通商品，而是对中国民众的生 ...

| 元前期货 | | | 碳 锌 8 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-06-05 | 2025-06-04 | 2025-05-29 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | | 近月合约 | | 60140.00 | 61220.00 | 58920.00 | -1,080.00 | | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 收盘价 | 60100.00 | 61080.00 | 58860.00 | -980.00 | | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 60540.00 | 61220.00 | 59180.00 | -680-00 | | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 60540.00 | 61220.00 | 59100.00 | -680.00 | | | | | 收盘价 | 60100.00 | 61080.00 | 58860.00 | -980.00 | | | 碳酸锂期货 | 活跃合约 | 成交量(手) | 244592.00 | 413239.00 | 38614 ...

Group 1 - The company signed a sales framework agreement with China General Nuclear Power Group, establishing a pricing mechanism for uranium procurement from 2026 to 2028, consisting of 30% fixed price and 70% spot price [1] - The fixed price for 2026 is set at $94.22 per lb U3O8, increasing annually by a factor of 1.041, resulting in prices of $94.22, $98.08, and $102.10 per lb U3O8 for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [1] - The expected sales volume for uranium is projected to be 1438 tons in 2026, 1617 tons in 2027, and 1598 tons in 2028 based on the company's current capacity and business plans [1] Group 2 - The new three-year uranium trade long-term contract features a significant increase in fixed prices compared to the previous cycle, with fixed prices for 2026, 2027, and 2028 rising approximately 42%, 48%, and 55% respectively compared to 2025 [2] - The proportion of spot price in the new contract has increased from 60% to 70%, enhancing the company's earnings elasticity [2] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 630 million, HKD 950 million, and HKD 1.1 billion, respectively, up from previous estimates of HKD 635 million, HKD 785 million, and HKD 836 million [2]

摘要： 瑞银的基准情景预计，2025 年下半年全球经济增长将逐步放缓，但在资产负债表健康、违约率低以及 技术面支撑的情况下，利差将保持区间波动(预计 2025 年 12 月欧盟投资级 / 高收益债券利差为 100/325 个基点)，尽管关税相关新闻可能引发市场波动。 瑞银认为，投资级金融债券是一个理想的选择，尤其是相对于企业债券而言。能源和基础工业板块看起 来最容易受到关税新闻的冲击，目前仅存在选择性的微观机会，而资本货物和公用事业板块则显得最具 防御性。 瑞银仍然倾向于在战术上做多 iTraxx Main 指数相对于欧盟投资级债券的头寸，因为瑞银预计 7 月关税 新闻可能会再次引发市场波动。欧洲私人信贷市场因其强劲的基本面和大量的干火药(未投资资金)来支 持流动性和抑制硬违约而引人注目。 5 月，采购经理人指数(PMI)有所放缓，但制造业活动继续呈上升趋势(49.2)，尽管贸易不确定性持续存 在，但提振了风险情绪。银行贷款和信贷条件进一步改善，私营部门信贷增长恢复复苏(从 + 0.1% 升至 2.7%)，贷款利率下降(从 - 0.2% 降至 3.9%)。欧洲企业强劲的盈利增强了对基本面的信心，而低评级信 贷 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5][8]. Core Views - The company is characterized as a growth-oriented and stable operator in the copper mining sector, with recent discussions on key events such as the spin-off listing in Hong Kong, acquisition of藏格矿业, and the temporary shutdown of卡莫阿铜矿 [1]. - The spin-off of the subsidiary, 紫金黄金国际, aims to create an independent financing platform and enhance the valuation of its gold assets, although the completion of this spin-off remains uncertain [2]. - The acquisition of control over藏格矿业 has been completed, increasing the company's stake to 26.18%, which is expected to facilitate better management and integration of operations [3]. - The卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿 has experienced a temporary shutdown due to seismic activity, but the impact on production for 2025 is expected to be limited, with a projected copper output of 520,000 to 580,000 tons [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for the company to be RMB 44 billion, RMB 46.5 billion, and RMB 51.8 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7]. - Revenue projections for the company are set at RMB 345.3 billion, RMB 368.3 billion, and RMB 390.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a growth rate of 13.73%, 6.67%, and 6.04% [7][18]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of financial ratios, including an expected EPS of RMB 1.52 for 2025 and a projected ROE of 26.1% [7][18]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains a target price of RMB 22.49 and HKD 21.73 for the company's A/H shares, based on a cautious valuation approach [5][8]. - The report notes that the average PE ratios for comparable companies in the copper, gold, and zinc sectors are 11, 20, and 14 respectively for 2025 [5][13].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **E-Cigarettes**: The global e-cigarette market is projected to reach approximately $18.3 billion in 2024, with an expected CAGR of 10.2% until 2031, reaching $35.6 billion. North America holds 40-50% market share, Europe 20-30%, and Asia-Pacific around 20% [17][17][17]. - **Trendy Toys**: The trendy toy market in China is expected to grow from ¥727 billion in 2024 at a growth rate of 26%, with the overall market size projected to reach ¥993.7 billion by 2028 [17][17][17]. - **New Energy Power Systems**: The first batch of pilot projects for new energy power systems has been initiated, focusing on grid technology, smart microgrids, and virtual power plants [17][17][17]. Company Highlights E-Cigarette Sector - **Smoore International**: Stock surged by 12.87% on June 4, 2025, continuing its upward trend since April [17][17][17]. - **China Tobacco**: Market share in heated non-combustible (HNB) products increased by 3.5 percentage points to 29.7% [17][17][17]. - **Huabao**: Leading in the flavor and fragrance industry, developing low-boiling point, high-volatility flavors for HNB products [17][17][17]. - **Jinjia**: Invested in Yunnan Yunshuo for e-cigarette oil and HNB flavor development, with its FOOGO brand leading in disposable e-cigarettes [17][17][17]. Trendy Toys Sector - **High乐股份**: Dominates the trendy toy market with 96.18% revenue from toys, focusing on blind boxes and plush toys [17][17][17]. - **Aoya**: Transitioning from pure IP content to "IP + Scene," providing operational services for over 250 projects across 50 cities [17][17][17]. - **Star Shine Entertainment**: 34.2% of revenue from toys, with a diversified channel system covering various retail formats [17][17][17]. New Energy Sector - **Xiexin Energy**: Focused on green electricity and heat power generation, developing virtual power plant models [17][17][17]. - **Henghua Technology**: Established a virtual power plant energy technology unit to explore the renewable energy market [17][17][17]. Other Notable Companies - **Cuihua Jewelry**: A century-old brand in gold jewelry, with 71.49% of revenue from gold products, expanding into children's jewelry [19][19][19]. - **Jiamai Packaging**: Building a full-industry beverage service platform, with significant growth in orders from major beverage brands [19][19][19]. - **Nongfu Spring**: Continues to innovate in beverage offerings, including craft beers and fruit-flavored drinks [19][19][19]. Market Dynamics - **E-Cigarette Market**: The value distribution shows upstream (raw materials) at 10-15%, midstream (manufacturing) at over 20%, and downstream (brands and channels) at over 55% [17][17][17]. - **Trendy Toy Market**: The Z generation (born 1995-2010) contributes 40% of the consumption share, indicating a shift in consumer demographics [17][17][17]. - **New Energy Initiatives**: The focus on integrating computing power with energy projects aims to enhance the efficiency of data centers and renewable energy sources [17][17][17]. Additional Insights - **Market Trends**: The rise of "self-consumption" trends in the toy market, with blind boxes and collectible cards gaining popularity [17][17][17]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies involved in e-cigarettes and trendy toys are positioned for significant growth, driven by changing consumer preferences and market expansion [17][17][17]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The new energy sector is supported by government initiatives, promoting the development of sustainable energy solutions [17][17][17].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates a shift in investor preference towards euro financing, suggesting that the premium for dollar borrowing may turn into a discount due to European Central Bank policies and savings-investment dynamics across the Atlantic [1] - The report highlights that the premium for euro against dollar is driven by the slower reduction of the ECB's balance sheet compared to the Fed, and the persistent U.S. budget deficit relative to Europe's solid net international investment position [1] - Goldman Sachs also notes that the "retribution tax" clause in Trump's tax reform may weaken foreign investors' interest in U.S. assets, potentially redirecting attention back to European markets, with European investors' confidence in the continent's prospects increasing [1] Group 2 - The CEO of ING Group warns that the collapse of the Dutch government may slow down decision-making related to proposed investment initiatives in Europe, emphasizing the need for significant decisions in digital and defense infrastructure investments [2] - Danske Bank's senior analyst predicts that the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds is likely to exceed 5% due to better-than-expected employment data and anticipated Senate approval of Trump's budget proposal [3] Group 3 - Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities forecasts that the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds will fluctuate between 1.4% and 1.5%, influenced by market concerns over long-term bond demand and potential government bond issuance reductions [4] - CITIC Securities reports a continuous rise in prices of strategic metals like molybdenum and tungsten, driven by resource scarcity and increasing demand from sectors such as new energy and military, suggesting investment opportunities in these metals [5] - CITIC Securities also predicts that gold priced in U.S. dollars will continue to strengthen, reflecting broader market trends [5] Group 4 - Galaxy Securities notes that infrastructure investment growth remains high, with a broad infrastructure investment growth rate of 10.86% in the first four months of the year, and recommends focusing on growth-stabilizing sectors [6] - Huatai Securities highlights the recovery in the real estate market, recommending "three good" real estate stocks and stable property management companies, as well as monitoring policies aimed at stabilizing the market [7] - Huatai Securities anticipates a reduction in preset interest rates, which could lower costs for the insurance industry and improve sales momentum, as insurance stocks are currently undervalued [8]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Natural Resources organized a training meeting to discuss the national survey and evaluation of mineral resource development and the promotion of advanced applicable technologies for 2024 [1][2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of the survey and technology promotion in enhancing resource conservation, efficient utilization, and ensuring national mineral resource security [2] Group 1 - The first nationwide survey of mineral resource development levels has clarified the current status of normal production mines in China, identifying disparities in resource utilization across regions [1] - The promotion of advanced applicable technologies has facilitated the integration of government, industry, academia, and research, empowering mining companies in their green and low-carbon transformation [1][2] - The meeting emphasized the need for high-quality execution of the 2025 survey and technology evaluation, focusing on the quality of "three rates" data [2] Group 2 - Experts provided training on the evaluation of mineral resource development levels, the "three rates" standards, and the application for advanced technologies [2] - Relevant departments and organizations are encouraged to strengthen collaboration and enhance the application of results from the survey and technology promotion [2]

Summary of the Conference Call for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the uranium mining industry, focusing on the pricing mechanisms and market dynamics affecting CGN's operations and profitability. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Adjustment of Uranium Pricing Mechanism** CGN has adjusted its natural uranium pricing mechanism by reducing the fixed price proportion by 10% and increasing the SMP (Spot Market Price) proportion. This adjustment aims to respond to commodity market volatility and safeguard the company's profit margins [2][3][4]. 2. **Base Price and Market Conditions** The company has set a high base price (BTM) of $94.22 per pound, significantly above the current market price of approximately $80. This strategy is intended to mitigate risks and prevent potential losses at the operational level due to market fluctuations [2][4]. 3. **Market Volatility and Price Predictions** The uranium market has experienced significant volatility, with prices previously peaking over $100, dropping to around $65, and currently recovering to about $70. CGN anticipates that the spot prices will align more closely with long-term contract prices in the latter half of the year [3][8][9]. 4. **Inflation Considerations in Contract Pricing** To address potential inflationary pressures, CGN has introduced an inflation coefficient of 1.41 in its contract pricing, referencing GDP and ICP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This mechanism is designed to ensure flexibility in responding to economic changes while maintaining stable interests for both parties involved [2][6]. 5. **Comparison of Price Forecasts from UXC and Trent** CGN prefers the UXC forecasts for future uranium prices due to their detailed analysis and methodology, despite notable differences in predictions between UXC and Trent. UXC's approach is deemed more reliable for long-term planning [5][6]. 6. **Production Guidance and Market Dynamics** The company provided guidance on future production volumes, indicating stable output from Alta Reek and slight declines from Zheshang Securities. The production plans are based on geological assessments of the respective mines [3][7]. 7. **Cost Stability in Kazakhstan** The overall cost structure in Kazakhstan remains stable, with improvements in sulfuric acid issues compared to the previous year. However, labor costs may rise due to inflation, and the MVT tax has increased from 6% to 9% of sales revenue [3][12]. 8. **International Trade Market Observations** The international trade market for uranium is currently in a tight balance, with supply and demand closely matched, contrasting with previous years when supply exceeded demand [10]. 9. **No Significant Changes in International Sales** CGN's international sales operations have remained stable without significant fluctuations in business scale compared to previous years [11]. 10. **Ongoing Legal and Tax Issues** The company is still addressing previous fines and tax disputes, with no significant progress reported. The complexity of these issues is compounded by changes in leadership and tax policies [13]. Additional Important Information - The adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the introduction of inflation coefficients reflect CGN's proactive approach to managing risks associated with market volatility and economic changes. - The company's reliance on detailed market analysis and forecasts from reputable sources underscores its commitment to informed decision-making in a fluctuating industry.