Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the price fluctuations of upstream non - ferrous metals and energy, and also presents the latest developments in the production and service industries, as well as the current situation of different industrial chains [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Middle - level Event Overview Production Industry - The Guangdong Provincial People's Government Office issued the "Action Plan for High - quality Development of the Manufacturing Industry Empowered by Artificial Intelligence in Guangdong Province (2025 - 2027)", supporting enterprises to use various intelligent computing resources for industrial model development, promoting the construction of edge data centers, and emphasizing core software research and the synergy between AI and industrial Internet [1]. Service Industry - The Civil Aviation Administration announced the winter - spring flight schedule for 2025, starting from October 26, with domestic flight times contracting for two consecutive seasons, with a 1.0% decline in 2024 and a 1.8% decline in 2025. From October 15, global shipping giants collectively raised prices, with freight rates on multiple routes increasing by 600 - 2000 US dollars per container [1]. 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Non - ferrous metals: Gold prices have declined. Energy: International oil prices have continued to fall. Chemicals: PTA prices have slightly decreased [2]. Middle - stream - Chemicals: PX operating rate is at a high level. Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2][3]. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have declined. Services: The number of domestic flights has increased [4]. 3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On October 21, the spot price of corn was 2180.0 yuan/ton (- 0.26% year - on - year), eggs were 6.0 yuan/kg (1.69% year - on - year), palm oil was 9306.0 yuan/ton (- 0.60% year - on - year), cotton was 14741.8 yuan/ton (0.35% year - on - year), and the average wholesale price of pork was 17.7 yuan/kg (- 2.80% year - on - year) [39]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On October 21, the spot price of copper was 85788.3 yuan/ton (- 0.25% year - on - year), zinc was 21922.0 yuan/ton (- 1.24% year - on - year), aluminum was 20943.3 yuan/ton (0.14% year - on - year), nickel was 122850.0 yuan/ton (0.23% year - on - year), and another type of aluminum was 17075.0 yuan/ton (0.63% year - on - year) [39]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On October 20, the spot price of rebar was 3131.8 yuan/ton (- 0.29% year - on - year), iron ore was 792.9 yuan/ton (- 1.26% year - on - year), and wire rod was 3295.0 yuan/ton (- 0.68% year - on - year) [39]. - **Non - Metals**: On October 21, the spot price of glass was 14.6 yuan/square meter (- 6.82% year - on - year), natural rubber was 14516.7 yuan/ton (0.58% year - on - year), and the China Plastics City Price Index was 779.6 (- 0.75% year - on - year) [39]. - **Energy**: On October 21, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 57.0 US dollars/barrel (- 4.15% year - on - year), Brent crude oil was 61.0 US dollars/barrel (- 3.65% year - on - year), liquefied natural gas was 3820.0 yuan/ton (2.85% year - on - year), and coal was 797.0 yuan/ton (0.76% year - on - year) [39]. - **Chemicals**: On October 21, the spot price of PTA was 4369.8 yuan/ton (- 2.02% year - on - year), polyethylene was 7076.7 yuan/ton (- 0.79% year - on - year), urea was 1570.0 yuan/ton (- 0.63% year - on - year), and soda ash was 1203.6 yuan/ton (- 1.23% year - on - year) [39]. - **Real Estate**: On October 21, the national cement price index was 133.7 (- 0.80% year - on - year), the building materials composite index was 111.5 (- 0.60% year - on - year), and the national concrete price index was 91.2 (- 0.18% year - on - year) [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The counter - measure taken by China against the US USTR port surcharge has a relatively small impact on the European routes [4]. - The SCFIS on October 20 exceeded expectations, and the 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points. There are large differences in the market regarding the final delivery settlement price [5]. - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the shipping companies will adjust the supply side to keep the freight rate at a high level. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [6][7]. - The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price quotes and price increase letters. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam 45 - week quote is 1410/2350, and HPL has price increase letters for November [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: On October 21, local time, Turkey's diplomatic and intelligence officials met with Hamas representatives in Doha to discuss the Gaza situation and the implementation of the cease - fire agreement, but more details were not disclosed [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October is 250,800 TEU, 299,500 TEU in November, and 308,800 TEU in December. There are 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The SCFIS on October 20 exceeded expectations. The final SCFIS index on the 27th is estimated to be higher than 1140.38 points, and the delivery settlement price of the 10 - month contract may be higher than 1110 points. The market has large differences in the final delivery settlement price [5][6]. - **December Contract**: The trading focuses on the rhythm. The shipping companies will adjust the supply side to keep the freight rate high. The trading process will involve trading the price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [6]. - **February 2026 Contract**: There may be a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. If the shipping companies' price - holding period is extended, the February contract price may be higher than the December contract price [7]. 3.4 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is recommended for now [9]. 3.5 Ship Delivery - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 17, 2025, 211 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU [8].

Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on the macroeconomic environment, indicating that the industrial added value in September showed a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, which is an increase compared to August and better than market expectations [6][8] - The report notes that the fixed asset investment growth rate for the first nine months of 2025 has fallen into negative territory, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% [7][9] - The real estate sector is experiencing a decline in housing prices, with new home prices in 70 major cities decreasing by 0.4% month-on-month in September, and second-hand home prices also down by 0.6% [10][11] Macroeconomic Overview - In September, the industrial added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing showing a cumulative growth of 6.8% for the first nine months [6][8] - The actual GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, with expectations to meet the annual target of 5.0% [6][9] - Fixed asset investment in the first nine months saw a decline of 0.5%, with private investment down by 3.1% [7][9] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The report indicates that in September, 63 out of 70 cities saw a month-on-month decline in new home prices, with an average drop of 0.47% [11][12] - The second-hand home prices in all 70 cities also experienced a decline, marking a significant trend as it is the first time in a year that all cities reported falling prices [10][11] - In first-tier cities, new home prices decreased by 0.3%, while second-hand home prices fell by 1.0%, indicating a more pronounced decline compared to second and third-tier cities [12][13] Investment Opportunities - The report lists a selection of stocks recommended for investment, including companies like Nanfang Airlines and Ningde Times, suggesting potential opportunities in the aviation and battery sectors [1] - The performance of various industry indices shows that the telecommunications and electronics sectors have seen significant gains, with increases of 4.90% and 3.50% respectively [4]

2025 年 10 月 22 日 集运指数（欧线）：现实好于预期，相对抗跌 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,135.0 | 2.94% | 2,368 | 6,372 | -2,024 | 0.37 | | 0.14 | | | EC2512 | 1,769.3 | 5.10% | 42,939 | 28,434 | 2,333 | 1.51 | | 0.93 | | | EC2602 | 1,568.0 | 2.87% | 5,402 | 10,233 | 130 | 0.53 | | 0.69 | | | EC2512 - EC260 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Global Market Volatility**: There is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets next week. In the overseas market, the catalytic effect of government shutdowns and data vacuums on interest - rate cut expectations is reduced, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline, increasing market volatility. In the domestic market, there are marginal policy changes, and physical work volume may rebound in the fourth quarter. Low - valued domestic commodity assets under pressure may have a rebound opportunity [7]. - **Asset Performance**: Precious metals and equity markets, which were most benefited from liquidity, may face increased short - term volatility. In the domestic market, low - valued commodity assets may rebound [7]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Index and Asset Price Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4577.6, up 1.57% daily, 2.06% weekly, down 0.87% monthly and quarterly, and up 16.75% this year. The SSE 50 futures closed at 3004.8, up 1.16% daily, 1.41% weekly, up 0.53% monthly and quarterly, and up 12.20% this year. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7052.8, with a complex set of fluctuations including a 2.08% daily increase and others [4]. - **Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.372, up 0.04% daily, down 0.01% weekly, and flat monthly and quarterly, down 0.58% this year. The 5 - year treasury bond futures closed at 105.715, up 0.06% daily, down 0.06% weekly, up 0.08% monthly and quarterly, down 0.77% this year [4]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.6219, unchanged daily, up 0.07% weekly, up 0.82% monthly, and down 9.03% this year. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1642, with various pip - based fluctuations [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Overseas, COMEX gold closed at 4374.3, up 2.49% daily, 12.5% monthly, and 65.74% this year. NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 56.93, down 0.56% daily, 8.81% monthly, and 20.79% this year. In the domestic market, the container shipping European line index was at 1769.3, up 5.19% daily, 6.93% weekly, and down 21.61% this year [4][5]. 3.2 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock markets showed a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles. Stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Dovish expectations drive prices up. Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, considering factors such as the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increased risk of the Fed's independence [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline. The container shipping European line is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter fades, and there is a lack of upward - driving force [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The industry's demand data is poor, and it is expected that policies will release positive signals. Steel, iron ore, coke, and other products are expected to fluctuate, with various influencing factors such as policy changes, supply - and - demand situations, and production data [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: They are waiting for the clarity of macro - policies, and basic metals are in a state of shock consolidation. Copper, aluminum, zinc, and other metals have different short - term expectations based on factors such as supply - and - demand, policy, and inventory [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade - tension situation has slightly eased, but the supply - and - demand pattern of energy and chemicals remains weak. Crude oil, LPG, and many other products are expected to fluctuate, with most showing a downward - trending or complex - fluctuating state due to factors such as cost, supply - and - demand, and policy [10]. - **Agriculture**: The mood has warmed up, but the trends are differentiated. Oils, protein meals, and other agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as planting progress, weather, and trade relations [10].

Investment Overview - The company plans to invest up to 1.4 billion RMB to build four 2700 TEU container ships to optimize fleet structure and enhance service capabilities [1][2] - The investment will be executed through a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore, with a total investment amount of approximately 1.194 billion RMB for the project [1][2] Investment Progress - As of the announcement date, the company has obtained necessary certificates for overseas investment and completed registration for the Singapore subsidiary [2] - Contracts for the construction of the four container ships have been signed with two shipbuilding companies, with a total contract value of 1.184 billion RMB [2][10] Company Information - The newly established Singapore subsidiary is named Ningbo Ocean Shipping (Singapore) Longitude Pte. Ltd., with a registered capital of 5 million SGD [3][4] - The subsidiary will focus on shipping operations, including ship chartering and management services [5] Contractual Details - Each shipbuilding contract is valued at 296 million RMB, with fixed pricing that does not fluctuate with market prices [11] - The delivery of the ships is scheduled to be completed by April 30, 2028, with specific payment terms outlined across multiple stages [11][15] Strategic Impact - This investment aligns with the company's strategic goals and is expected to strengthen its core competitiveness in the shipping industry [16] - The company will monitor various external factors that may impact the investment's progress and outcomes [16]

Group 1 - The U.S. has implemented port fees targeting Chinese vessels, charging $50 per net ton for Chinese-owned or operated ships, effective from October 14, with fees set to increase annually [1] - The U.S. will impose a 100% additional tariff on specific Chinese-manufactured port equipment starting November 9 [1] - In response, China has introduced special port fees for U.S.-flagged and U.S.-owned vessels, starting at 400 RMB per net ton, while exempting Chinese-built ships to protect its shipbuilding industry [4][6] Group 2 - The symmetrical nature of the fees ($50 per net ton vs. 400 RMB per net ton) is seen as a direct counter to U.S. attempts to revive its shipbuilding industry through foreign enterprises [6] - China's Customs spokesperson characterized the response as a "necessary defensive action" aimed at maintaining fair competition in international shipping [6] - The trade friction has expanded from traditional tariff disputes to broader strategic industries like shipping and shipbuilding [6][11] Group 3 - The U.S. strategy appears to aim at weakening China's international trade advantages, which has led to self-inflicted economic harm [7] - The ongoing trade war reflects a shift from a rules-based order to a power-based rules system, where international rules are defined through the dynamics of great power competition [11][25] - The recent sanctions and counter-sanctions highlight a significant transformation in the international economic landscape, moving away from a unipolar to a multipolar framework [25][26]

Group 1: Oil and Energy Sector - The Ministry of Commerce announced the total import quota for non-state trade of crude oil for 2026 is set at 25.7 million tons, with specific application conditions including ownership of oil terminals and bank credit requirements [2] - The successful impoundment of the Dadu River Jinchuan Hydropower Station is expected to replace approximately 1 million tons of coal consumption annually, contributing to a reduction of about 1 million tons of CO2 emissions [3] - The largest pumped storage unit in China, located at the Zhejiang Tiantai Pumped Storage Power Station, successfully completed its first operation, marking significant progress in a key national project [3] Group 2: Green Technology and Innovation - China has established a preliminary technical specification system for green ships and offshore facilities, aligning with international greenhouse gas reduction targets and promoting the standardization of green technologies [2] - The launch of the methanol electric dual-purpose vessel "Yuanchun 001" in Shanghai represents a new model for green shipping applications in inland waterways [4] Group 3: Regional Developments - In Guangxi, the energy block trading volume has surpassed 20.5 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 15% of the total electricity market transactions in the region [5] - Guangdong's action plan aims to accelerate the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, focusing on the application of model algorithms in various sectors [4] Group 4: International Energy Policy - The European Union has agreed to gradually stop importing natural gas from Russia by 2028, with a transition period for existing contracts until mid-2026 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Ocean Shipping Co., Ltd. is advancing its strategy by investing in the construction of four 2700 TEU container ships and establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore to manage this project [2][3][19]. Group 1: Investment in Container Ships - The company plans to invest up to 1.4 billion RMB to build four 2700 TEU container ships, aiming to optimize its fleet structure and enhance service capabilities [2]. - The investment for the construction of the ships is authorized to be managed by the company's operational management team through market research and competitive bidding [2]. Group 2: Establishment of Overseas Company - The company has approved the establishment of Ningbo Ocean (Singapore) Longitude Pte. Ltd. in Singapore, with an investment of approximately 1.194 billion RMB, to oversee the construction and operation of the new container ships [3][4]. - The overseas company has completed the necessary registration procedures in Singapore and has received the required investment certificates from local authorities [4]. Group 3: Contractual Agreements - Contracts have been signed with China Shipbuilding Huangpu Wenchong Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. and China Shipbuilding Industry Trade Co., Ltd. for the construction of the four container ships, with a total contract value of approximately 1.184 billion RMB [4][12]. - Each ship's construction contract is fixed at 296 million RMB, with specific payment terms outlined for different stages of the construction process [13][15]. Group 4: Company Structure and Operations - Ningbo Ocean (Singapore) Longitude Pte. Ltd. is a private limited company with a registered capital of 5 million SGD, focusing on shipping and ship management services [5][7]. - The company is wholly owned by Ningbo Ocean (Singapore) Co., Ltd., which will manage the investment and operational activities related to the new container ships [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Ningbo Ocean (601022) has made progress in establishing an overseas company and investing in the construction of four container ships, with a total investment of approximately 11.84 billion RMB [1][3]. Group 2 - As of October 21, 2025, Ningbo Ocean's stock closed at 10.66 RMB, up 1.91%, with a turnover rate of 13.3% and a trading volume of 330,700 hands, resulting in a transaction amount of 349 million RMB [1]. - On October 21, the net outflow of main funds was 15.86 million RMB, accounting for 4.55% of the total transaction amount; the net outflow of retail funds was 20.36 million RMB, accounting for 5.84%; while retail investors had a net inflow of 36.22 million RMB, accounting for 10.39% [1][3]. - The investment involves the establishment of Ningbo Ocean (Singapore) Navigation Co., Ltd. in Singapore, which has signed contracts for the construction of four 2,700 TEU container ships with a contract amount of 2.96 billion RMB each, totaling 11.84 billion RMB [1][3]. - The container ships will have a deadweight tonnage of 36,900 tons and are scheduled for delivery by April 30, 2028 [1][3].