把握回调布局机会！上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 不过，本周二和周三，中国股市已经连续两日出现回调。截至收盘，沪指今日跌1.16%，深成指跌0.65%，创业板指涨0.95%。而香港股 市也是连两日下跌，今日收盘下跌0.6%。 尽管如此，外资大行 高盛 对中国股票仍持乐观态度。高盛的一位高管最新表示， 投资者情绪已经显著改善，中国股市仍有上涨空间 。 "我们从客户和投资者那里听到的是，（围绕中国股市的）情绪已经改善"。高盛亚太地区（除日本外）总裁Kevin Sneader周三在接受媒 体采访时表示。他指出， 中国股市的这波反弹具有一定的支撑。 Sneader表示， 虽然一些长线投资者仍在寻求更明确的政策信号，但对冲基金的资金流入状况有所改善 。 投资者对中国在 人工智能 领域的突破以及削减过剩产能的努力将重振经济增长的乐观情绪，助推了本轮涨势。 上周，包括刘劲津在内的高盛策略师团队上调了对沪深300指数的年终目标价，理由包括估值具有吸引力、高个位数趋势利润增长、散户兴 趣强劲以及潜在的资产重新配置等。 自去年9月以来，中国股市持续反弹，上证指数在此期间 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs suggests that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is compromised, investors may shift a small portion of U.S. Treasury holdings into gold, potentially driving gold prices up to nearly $5000 per ounce [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Impact - A loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could lead to rising inflation, declining stock and long-term bond prices, and erosion of the dollar's status as a reserve currency [1] - Gold is viewed as a store of value that does not rely on institutional trust, making it an attractive alternative during times of uncertainty [1] Group 2: Gold Price Predictions - The baseline forecast indicates that gold prices could soar to $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 [1] - In a tail risk scenario, gold prices could reach $4500 per ounce [1] - If only 1% of private U.S. Treasury funds were to flow into gold, prices could approach $5000 per ounce [1]

对于后市，摩根士丹利基金分析，当前A股依然是流动性驱动行情，但流动性改善的本质是投资者对中 国资产悲观预期的持续修复。上周人民币汇率出现了明显的升值，美联储降息预期提升给人民币升值提 供了较好的基础条件。这种背景下，人民币资产升值空间进一步打开，非常有利于A股市场的演绎。 （文章来源：证券时报） ...

宏观要闻： 1.据财政部网站，近日，财政部与中国人民银行联合工作组召开第二次组长会议。会议肯定了去年联合工作组成立以来的成效，并就金融市场运 行、政府债券发行管理、央行国债买卖操作和完善离岸人民币国债发行机制等议题进行深入研讨。双方认为财政政策与货币政策协同发力，为应 对当前市场环境、推动经济回升向好提供了保障，并表示将继续深化合作，加强协同。 2.据商务部贸易救济调查局3日23时57分发布的公告，商务部裁定，美国光纤生产商和出口商通过改变贸易模式的方式向中国出口相关截止波长位 移单模光纤(G.654.C光纤)，不具有充分的商业合理性，削弱了现行反倾销措施的实施效果，构成了对原产于美国的进口非色散位移单模光纤反倾 销措施的规避。 3.高盛的一位高管最新表示，投资者情绪已经显著改善，中国股市仍有上涨空间。高盛亚太地区(除日本外)总裁表示，虽然一些长线投资者仍在寻 求更明确的政策信号，但对冲基金的资金流入状况有所改善。 行业新闻： 1.富时罗素9月3日宣布对富时中国50指数、富时中国A50指数、富时中国A150指数、富时中国A200指数、富时中国A400指数的季度审核变更。该 变更将于2025年9月19日星期五收 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current A-share market is driven by liquidity, which is improving due to the continuous repair of investors' pessimistic expectations regarding Chinese assets [1] - Last week, the RMB exchange rate showed significant appreciation, supported by the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which provides a favorable condition for RMB appreciation [1] - In this context, the appreciation potential of RMB assets is further opened up, which is very beneficial for the performance of the A-share market [1]

Industry News - The FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China 50 index, which will include BeiGene-U, NewEase, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongji Xuchuang, while excluding China National Nuclear Power, China Unicom, Guodian Nari, and Wanhua Chemical, effective after market close on September 19 [5] - The China Securities Index Co., Ltd. will officially launch the CSI A500 Growth Index and CSI A500 Value Index on September 10, 2025, selecting the top 100 securities based on growth and value factors from the CSI A500 index [5] - Zhongji Xuchuang's stock surged over 10%, with a total market value reaching 473.548 billion yuan, surpassing Dongfang Caifu's 420.862 billion yuan, making it the second-largest by market value on the ChiNext board [5] - The paper industry is implementing a dual strategy of "price increase + shutdown" as the traditional peak season approaches, with major paper manufacturers like Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper announcing price hikes [7] - The establishment of the first artificial intelligence bureau in Zhejiang Province was officially announced in Wenzhou [7] Company News - Tianpu Co. announced that it will suspend trading for verification due to multiple instances of abnormal stock trading since August 22 [8] - Sanyou Medical announced that its innovative product, the Zeus spinal fixation system, has received FDA 510(k) certification [9] - China Heavy Industry announced that the share exchange registration date is September 4, with an exchange ratio of 1:0.1339 [15] - Dechuang Environmental Protection announced a delay of no more than five trading days in responding to an inquiry letter [15] - Zijin Mining announced that its vice president reduced holdings by 250,000 shares from September 2 to 3 [15] - Goldfield Group reported a signing amount of 2.22 billion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 58.89% [15] - Chengdu Huami announced that its 40G high-precision RF direct sampling ADC chip has not yet been sold on a large scale [15] - Wen Investment Holdings announced that its cinema and gaming businesses are still in the recovery phase after restructuring [15] - Taihe Technology announced that its sulfide solid electrolyte project is currently in the pilot testing stage and has not yet generated sales revenue [15] - Yuanjie Technology warned that if market development does not meet expectations, its sales revenue in the data center market will be significantly impacted [15] - Robotec announced a contract for fully automated silicon photonic packaging equipment worth approximately 9.465 million euros [15] Global Market - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.05%, the S&P 500 up 0.51%, and the Nasdaq up 1.02%. Google surged over 9%, marking its best single-day performance since April 9, with stock prices reaching record highs [10] - International oil prices fell as OPEC+ is expected to consider a new round of production increases, with WTI October crude futures closing at $63.97 per barrel, down 2.47%, and Brent November crude futures at $67.60 per barrel, down 2.23% [10] - International gold prices continue to hit record highs, with spot gold surpassing $3,570 [11]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. GDP growth in Q3 down by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% due to unexpectedly large expansion in the trade deficit in July [8] - The July core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.27% month-on-month and 2.88% year-on-year, aligning with previous estimates and market expectations [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in the U.S. goods trade deficit, which expanded by $18.7 billion to $103.6 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [6] Economic Indicators - Personal income in July increased by 0.4%, supported by steady growth in employment compensation, owner income, and rental income [6] - Personal consumption expenditures showed strong performance, rising by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly above Goldman Sachs' expectations [6] - The actual personal spending, adjusted for inflation, grew by 0.3%, with notable increases in goods consumption (0.9%) and a slight rise in services spending (0.1%) [6] Trade Data Analysis - The significant increase in the trade deficit was primarily driven by a $18.6 billion rise in imports, while exports saw a slight decline of $1 billion [6] - The surge in imports is believed to be a response to businesses stocking up ahead of new tariff policies set to take effect in August [6] - Notable increases in imports were seen in industrial goods and capital goods, which rose by $12.3 billion and $4.4 billion, respectively [6] Inflation and Domestic Demand - Despite the trade data being weaker than expected, core inflation and consumption expenditure data indicate that the U.S. economy is maintaining a moderate expansion [8] - The domestic final sales indicator, which measures domestic demand strength, is expected to continue showing positive growth, reflecting the underlying resilience of the U.S. economy [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the contrast between the traditional "September curse" in the U.S. stock market and the ongoing "slow bull" market in A-shares since April 2025, characterized by a 700-point increase over 90 days [1] - The "slow bull" market does not guarantee easy profits, as investors often hesitate to enter during upward trends and may exit during sharp corrections, exemplified by the market reaction to the June 18 conflict [2] - The essence of the "slow bull fast adjustment" market is attributed to institutional funds engaging in "washing" and "topping" strategies, leading to significant volatility that can mislead ordinary investors [3] Group 2 - A quantitative perspective reveals that the seemingly alarming adjustments in stock prices actually conceal clear patterns of institutional behavior, which can be analyzed through data [5] - The "institutional washing" phenomenon is identified when previously short-selling institutions re-enter the market, often accompanied by "institutional inventory" data, indicating a deliberate effort to create panic and force retail investors to sell [8] - The insights from Morgan Stanley regarding the "September curse" reflect a deeper understanding of institutional movements, suggesting that recognizing these behaviors is crucial for effective investment strategies [9]

Group 1 - The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows slight improvement, with the manufacturing PMI rising from 49.3 in July to 49.4 in August, and the non-manufacturing PMI increasing from 50.1 to 50.3, indicating a trend of price index improvement related to industry efforts to reduce excessive discounting [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adjusted the daily midpoint exchange rate of the USDCNY to 7.1030, marking a new low for the year, signaling a proactive move to strengthen the RMB against the USD, with expectations of the exchange rate falling to 7.0 by year-end and below 7.0 next year [3][4] - The Chinese government's "Artificial Intelligence Action Plan" aims to accelerate AI application in the economy, with targets for AI application rates in key sectors set at 70% by 2027, 90% by 2030, and 100% by 2035, emphasizing industrial over consumer applications [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the U.S. stock market is facing multiple challenges as it enters historically weak September, with CTA funds fully invested and potentially poised to sell off significant amounts of stocks [1][3] - Goldman Sachs highlights the historical performance of the S&P 500 index in September, noting it is the worst month with an average return of -1.17%, particularly in the latter half of the month [3] - The report suggests that CTA funds' buying power has diminished significantly, dropping from $27.66 billion in July to an expected $2.96 billion in September, raising concerns about potential forced sell-offs [3] Group 2 - Despite the challenging macro backdrop, Goldman Sachs identifies structural support within the market that may act as a stabilizer, suggesting that any downturns could be relatively mild [5] - The report notes that institutional investors still have room to increase their positions, with hedge funds maintaining low net leverage, indicating a lack of strong directional bets [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of cash, highlighting that since 2019, $4.09 trillion has flowed into U.S. money market funds, significantly outpacing the inflow into U.S. equity funds [5] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs expresses optimism regarding the Chinese market, noting a significant rotation of hedge funds into emerging market stocks, particularly Chinese assets [7] - The report mentions that the CSI 300 index has surged approximately 10% since the end of July, outperforming the MSCI China index, driven by positive sentiment around advancements in artificial intelligence and measures to cut excess capacity [7] - Recent data from RatingDog indicates that China's composite PMI output index reached 51.9 in August, signaling continued expansion and improved business confidence [8]