1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The price increase this week was mainly driven by supply - side sentiment. Affected by environmental inspections in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, some coal mines and coal washing plants suspended transportation. The reduction in production area supply and low inventories of coking and steel enterprises after previous raw material consumption led downstream to increase procurement of high - cost - effective and scarce resources. The marginal repair of supply - demand contradictions drove the market to rise. However, considering future复产 actions and the further reduction of long - term contracts for Mongolian coal in the third quarter, the market's expectation of long - term supply capacity remains unchanged. Short - term event - based disturbances may boost prices, but there may be callback pressure as the fundamentals are repaired. The investment outlook is to shrink coking profit margins [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Domestic coal**: In recent days, some coal mines in Linfen and Changzhi, Shanxi, which were shut down due to accidents at other mines in the group and safety inspections, have resumed production, but full recovery takes time. In Inner Mongolia, environmental inspections have tightened supply this week. In Shandong, some enterprises reduced production due to low coal prices and underground issues. The sample coal mine raw coal output decreased by 11720 tons week - on - week to 1212010 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.82% to 84.32% [3] - **Overseas coal**: The Mongolian coal market saw improved trading this week. With the warming of the domestic market sentiment and the rise of the futures market, spot - futures traders were more active in purchasing. Some coking enterprises increased their purchases of Mongolian coal due to the significant decline in Inner Mongolia's regional supply. Mongolian No. 5 raw coal prices rose to around 730 - 750 yuan/ton [3] - **Coke**: Independent coking plants' daily average output was 64500 tons (- 200 tons), and steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average output was 47400 tons (+ 0 tons) [8] 3.2 Demand - Although it is the off - season for consumption, steel mills have good profits, and finished product inventories are in a downward cycle. Hot metal production remains at a relatively high level, so there is still rigid demand for coke. With the increasing expectation of stable coke prices, a small number of steel mills replenished their inventories moderately, and spot - futures traders also started to enter the market to buy, improving coking enterprises' sales and reducing inventory [4] 3.3 Inventory - **Coke**: After the fourth round of coke price cuts, the market sentiment of stable prices is growing. A small number of steel mills increased raw material procurement appropriately. However, due to the lack of a short - term rebound expectation for coke and relatively high inventories in some steel mills, most enterprises are still cautious in purchasing. The available days of coke inventory in monitored steel enterprises decreased by 0.35 days to 10.97 days compared with the same period last week [5] - **Coking coal**: MS total inventory decreased by 79000 tons; mine inventory decreased by 44400 tons; independent coking plant inventory increased by 13200 tons; steel mill coking plant inventory increased by 6500 tons; port inventory decreased by 44300 tons; port of entry inventory decreased by 9200 tons [8] 3.4 Coal - Coke Fundamental Data | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 852890 tons (- 3550 tons); FW clean coal 434920 tons (- 2310 tons) | Independent coking plants' daily average 64500 tons (- 200 tons); steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 47400 tons (+ 0 tons) | | Demand | Hot metal production 2421800 tons (+ 5700 tons) | Hot metal production 2421800 tons (+ 5700 tons) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 79000 tons; mine - 44400 tons; independent coking + 13200 tons; steel mill coking + 6500 tons; port - 44300 tons; port of entry - 9200 tons | MS total inventory - 13300 tons; independent coking - 2500 tons; steel mill - 6400 tons; port - 4300 tons | | Profit | Commodity coal 289 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton); | Coking enterprises' average profit 9 yuan/ton (- 29 yuan/ton) | | Warehouse Receipt | Xiangning low - sulfur warehouse receipt 800 yuan/ton; Lvliang Shenjiamao 894 yuan/ton; Mongolian No. 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 778 yuan/ton | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1264 yuan/ton | [8] 3.5 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The report provides data on the start - up rate and daily average output of sample coal washing plants, as well as the production of coking raw coal, coking clean coal, coking bituminous coal, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at different ports [10][14][16] - **Inventory**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 37980 tons to 396250 tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 47240 tons to 367000 tons. The coking coal port inventory was 285590 tons, with a weekly decrease of 17720 tons. The report also shows the inventory and available days of coking coal in coking plants and steel mills from different perspectives such as regions and production capacities [22][26] 3.6 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply**: It includes data on the capacity utilization rates of independent coking plants and steel mills, as well as the daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel mills [37][39][41] - **Inventory**: The report presents the inventory of coke in independent coking plants and steel mills, including data from different regions and the total inventory of all samples [45][46][51] - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises is provided, along with the supply - demand difference between coke supply and demand [53] - **Profit**: Data on coke's on - disk profit, spot profit, and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises are given [55] 3.7 Coal - Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking coal futures**: The trading prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from June 20 to June 28, 2025, are provided [58] - **Coke futures**: The trading prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2509 and 2601 futures contracts from June 20 to June 28, 2025, are provided [61] - **Coal - coke monthly spread**: The monthly spreads of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 are presented [64] - **Coal - coke spot**: The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are provided [65][66] - **Coal - coke basis**: On June 27, the basis of Mongolian coking coal was calculated as the difference between the warehouse receipt price and the main contract price. The basis of coke was calculated as the difference between the main contract price and the warehouse receipt cost [70]

Group 1: Commodity Market Performance - On June 27, the domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses, with polysilicon leading with over a 3% increase, followed by焦煤 and industrial silicon with over 4% gains [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1377.97 points, up 5.01 points or 0.36% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1910.45 points, up 6.95 points or 0.37% [1] Group 2: Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon surged over 6% on June 27, driven by positive market sentiment and news of production cuts from major manufacturers in Xinjiang, impacting daily output by approximately 1500 to 1700 tons [2] - Industrial silicon also experienced a price rebound, closing above 8000 yuan per ton, but faces potential supply increases due to the resumption of production in the southwestern region [3] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke continued their upward trend, with coking coal reaching a new high in over a month, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics due to production cuts amid safety inspections [3] - Despite the rebound, the overall supply-demand balance for coking coal and coke remains tilted towards oversupply, limiting the potential for further price increases [3] Group 4: Oil and Gold Market Trends - SC crude oil contracts fell for the fourth consecutive day, with a decline of 1.37%, influenced by improved market risk appetite and a weaker dollar [4] - Gold prices also decreased, with the Shanghai gold main contract dropping by 0.87%, although expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve provide some support [5]

煤焦周度产业数据 2025年6月27日 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 | 简评：1、原料补库需求释放， | | 焦煤库存从煤矿和港口向下游转移； | | 2、本周， | 全国523家炼焦煤矿精煤 | 姓名：涂伟华 | | 宝城期货投资咨询部 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日均产量73.8万吨， | 环比减0.6万吨， | | 较去年同期偏低3.5万吨； 3、甘其毛都口岸上周累计通关4207 | | | 从业资格证号：F3060359 | | 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 | | | 车， | 周环比增374车。 | | | | | 电话：0571-87006873 | | 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com | | | 焦炭库存 | | 本周 | 环比 | 同比 | 焦煤库存 | | 本周 | 环比 | 同比 | | | 库存(万吨) 230家独立焦化厂 | 73.73 | -7.2 | 36.88 | | 库存(万吨) 523家炼焦煤矿 | 463.1 | -36.1 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Baotailong New Materials Co., Ltd. announced the complete transfer of its 55% stake in its subsidiary Jixi Baotailong Investment Co., Ltd. to Heilongjiang Huiyu Energy Development Group Co., Ltd. for a total transaction value of 300 million yuan, which includes both equity and debt transfer [2][3]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The total transaction price for the equity transfer is 153,704,509.70 yuan, and the debt transfer price is 146,295,490.30 yuan, summing up to 300 million yuan [2]. - The net asset value of Jixi Investment Company is reported at 39.58 million yuan, with an assessed value of 276.30 million yuan, resulting in a substantial appreciation of 236.72 million yuan and a growth rate of 597.96% [2][4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Jixi Investment Company has reported zero revenue for the years 2023, 2024, and the first four months of 2025, with net losses of -3.95 million yuan, -13.80 million yuan, and -949,300 yuan respectively [4][5]. - Baotailong's financial performance has been declining, with revenues of 3.773 billion yuan, 3.727 billion yuan, and 1.291 billion yuan for the years 2022 to 2024, and corresponding net profits of 152 million yuan, -1.536 billion yuan, and -464 million yuan [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Context - The company has faced challenges due to the maintenance of coking equipment, leading to a significant drop in coking coal production and related revenues [6][7]. - Coking coal prices have been on a downward trend, with average prices dropping from 2,225 yuan per ton in 2023 to 1,457 yuan per ton in 2025, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: - A-shares: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury bonds: Limited upside in the short term [1] - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Bullish in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Volatile [1] - Alumina: Volatile [1] - Nickel: Volatile, limited upside in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Stainless steel: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Tin: Bearish in the short term, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - Industrial silicon: Bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [1] - **Black Metals**: - Rebar: No upward momentum [1] - Hot-rolled coil: No upward momentum [1] - Iron ore: Volatile [1] - Coking coal: Bearish [1] - Coke: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Bearish [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm oil: Bearish [1] - Soybean oil: Bearish [1] - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Sugar: Potential for higher production [1] - Corn: Bullish in the medium term [1] - Pulp: Bearish [1] - Raw silk: Neutral [1] - Live pigs: Stable [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - BR rubber: Bearish in the short term [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Short fiber: Bearish [1] - Pure benzene: Volatile [1] - Styrene: Volatile [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic soda: Volatile [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the A-share market has good liquidity, geopolitical conflicts have significantly eased, and overseas disturbances have weakened, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite may put short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties such as geopolitics and tariffs remain high, so gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The Fed's dovish remarks and the opening of the re-export window may lead to a further decline in copper inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - The low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - The supply of some non-ferrous metals is expected to recover, and demand shows signs of weakening, so attention should be paid to shorting opportunities at high levels [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment requires attention to tariff progress and economic data at home and abroad [1] - The supply of some agricultural products is affected by various factors, and the market shows different trends, such as the potential decline in Brazilian sugar production due to the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, Trump's energy policy is negative for crude oil, and the long-term supply and demand tend to be loose [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **A-shares**: Short-term liquidity is good, geopolitical conflicts ease, and overseas disturbances weaken, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - **Treasury bonds**: The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - **Gold**: Market risk appetite improves, putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties keep prices volatile [1] - **Silver**: Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's dovish remarks and re-export window may lead to lower inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - **Alumina**: Spot price decline and production increase put pressure on the futures price, but the discount limits the downside [1] - **Nickel**: High nickel ore premium and inventory increase limit the short-term upside, and long-term oversupply remains a concern [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short-term futures may rebound, but the sustainability is uncertain, and long-term supply pressure exists [1] - **Tin**: Short-term pressure from photovoltaic production cuts, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge [1] - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production declines, and supply reduction is not obvious [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Falling ore prices and high downstream inventory lead to weak buying [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot-rolled coil**: In the transition from peak to off-season, cost weakens, and supply-demand is loose, with no upward momentum [1] - **Iron ore**: Iron water may peak, and supply may increase in June, so attention should be paid to steel pressure [1] - **Coking coal and Coke**: Supply surplus exists, and the rebound space is limited [1] - **Glass**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices continue to decline [1] - **Soda ash**: Maintenance resumes, supply surplus is a concern, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm oil and Soybean oil**: After the decline of crude oil, the supply-demand is weak, and prices are expected to fall [1] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to consumption off-season and inventory accumulation [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio may affect production [1] - **Corn**: Short-term price is affected by auction news, but the medium-term outlook is bullish [1] - **Pulp**: In the demand off-season, it is bearish after the positive news fades [1] - **Raw silk**: High持仓 and intense capital game lead to large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is abundant, and futures prices are stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and Fuel oil**: Geopolitical cooling, Trump's energy policy, and long-term supply-demand loosening are negative factors [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, potential tax refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **BR rubber**: Temporary stability due to geopolitical cooling, but weak fundamentals in the short term [1] - **PTA, Ethylene glycol, and Short fiber**: Affected by the decline of crude oil and other factors, prices are bearish [1] - **Pure benzene and Styrene**: Volatile due to market sentiment and supply-demand changes [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and the entry of new devices, so prices are bearish [1] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is almost over, and attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical relief, seasonal off-season, and inflow of low-cost foreign goods lead to downward pressure [1]

1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 4500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 日照港准一平仓 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/6/26 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 同比 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1153.65 | 0.00 | -54.61 | -184.42 | -40.84% 高炉开工率 | 90.79 | | 0.21 | -0.53 | 1.41% | | 河北准一湿熄 | 1375.00 | 0.00 | -55.00 | -205.00 | -35.60% 铁水日均产量 | 242.18 | | 0.57 | -1.42 | 0.93% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1330.00 | 0.00 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market is in the off - season with high production and potential inventory accumulation pressure. The upward elasticity of steel prices is limited, and the volatility has decreased. It is suggested to try short positions, focus on the support levels of 3000 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 2900 yuan for rebar, or sell out - of - the - money call options. The cost drags down the market, and the demand expectation is weak. Although the decline in off - season demand is better than expected, the terminal demand may weaken in the future [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. The global iron ore shipments increased this week, and the arrival volume at ports continued to rise. The demand side may maintain a relatively high level of hot - metal production in the short term, but the terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season. The port inventory and steel mills' equity ore inventory have increased. In the short term, there is obvious resistance above the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be considered bearish in the medium - to - long term. The price range may shift down to 670 - 720 yuan [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures showed an oscillating upward trend, while the spot was weak. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 23, and there may be further cuts, but the phased bottom is gradually emerging. The supply is tightening marginally due to environmental protection and other factors, and the demand has rigid support with hot - metal production remaining above 240,000 tons per day. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to hedge the 2509 contract on rallies for spot traders, stay on the sidelines for speculators, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures oscillated upward, and the spot was stable with a slight upward trend. The domestic coking coal showed signs of stabilization, and the supply decreased in some regions due to environmental protection and other factors. The import coal had different situations, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal imports having a profit inversion. The demand had some resilience with hot - metal production remaining above 240,000 tons per day in June, and the inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal on dips for short - term trading and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions decreased slightly, while some futures contracts had small fluctuations. The cost of steel production had different changes, and the profit of various regions and varieties decreased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The output of five major steel products increased by 9.7 thousand tons (1.1%), rebar production increased by 4.6 thousand tons (2.2%), with electric - furnace production decreasing by 1.6 thousand tons (- 6.4%) and converter production increasing by 6.2 thousand tons (3.4%). Hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.8 thousand tons (0.2%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 15.7 thousand tons (- 1.2%), hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.2 thousand tons (- 1.5%), and rebar inventory decreased by 7.0 thousand tons (- 1.3%) [1]. Demand - The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 16.1 thousand tons (1.9%), rebar apparent demand decreased by 0.8 thousand tons (- 0.4%), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 10.8 thousand tons (3.4%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly. The 09 - contract basis of most powders decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 yuan/ton (2.3%), the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton (- 1.9%), and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.9%) [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 178.2 thousand tons (7.5%), the global shipments (weekly) increased by 154.0 thousand tons (4.6%), and the national monthly import volume decreased by 500.3 thousand tons (- 4.9%) [4]. Demand - The average daily hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 0.6 thousand tons (0.2%), the average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) increased by 12.3 thousand tons (4.1%), the national monthly pig - iron production increased by 153.1 thousand tons (2.1%), and the national monthly crude - steel production increased by 52.6 thousand tons (0.6%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 73.9 thousand tons (0.5%), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 137.6 thousand tons (1.6%), and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coke in some regions remained unchanged, the 09 - contract price increased by 2.7%, and the 01 - contract price increased by 2.0%. The coking profit (weekly) increased by 23 yuan/ton, with a 100% increase [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 thousand tons (- 0.5%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 thousand tons (0.3%) [7]. Demand - The hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 thousand tons (0.2%) [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 18.8 thousand tons (- 1.9%), the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 10.1 thousand tons (- 8.1%), the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 8.6 thousand tons (- 1.34%), and the port inventory remained unchanged [7]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.5 thousand tons (- 9.0%) [7]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coking coal in some regions remained unchanged, the 09 - contract price increased by 2.6%, and the 01 - contract price increased by 2.4%. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) decreased by 24 yuan/ton (- 7.5%) [7]. Supply - The raw - coal production decreased by 9.8 thousand tons (- 1.1%), and the clean - coal production decreased by 3.4 thousand tons (- 0.8%) [7]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 thousand tons (- 0.5%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 thousand tons (0.3%) [7]. Inventory - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 25.1 thousand tons (- 8.84%), the coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.3 thousand tons (- 0.3%), the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.7 thousand tons (0.14%), and the port inventory decreased by 8.7 thousand tons (- 2.8%) [7].

数据来源：Wind、Mysteel、富宝资讯、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尼端免责声明。 信息均来源于被广发明货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但广发明货对这些信息的准确性及完整栏不作任何保证，本报告反映研究人员的不同观点 方法、并不代表广发明货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下、报告内容仅供参考。报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的却如何 据此投资、风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士．版权月广发刑货 01 22 33 4 何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 acid 关注微信公众号 | 矿石产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月25日 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 711.0 | 713.2 | -2.2 | ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rose later, with the Shanghai Energy Industry Layered Equal-Weight Index down by 1.71% to 2502.08 points, with a trading volume of 14.174 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Energy Industry Layered Equal-Weight Index has increased by 1.24% in the past month, decreased by 4.91% in the past three months, and has fallen by 10.24% year-to-date [1] - The index includes companies from eleven primary industries, providing diversified investment targets through market capitalization weighting and equal weighting within secondary industries [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings of the Shanghai Energy Industry Layered Equal-Weight Index include: Continental Oil & Gas (3.64%), China Coal Energy (3.53%), China National Petroleum (3.46%), Sinopec Oilfield Service (3.44%), China Oil Engineering (3.44%), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (3.44%), CNOOC Engineering (3.39%), CNOOC Development (3.39%), China National Offshore Oil Service (3.38%), and Shanghai Petrochemical (3.37%) [1] - The index's holdings are entirely from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with coal accounting for 46.42%, oilfield services for 13.60%, coke for 12.94%, fuel refining for 10.31%, integrated oil and gas companies for 6.75%, oil and gas extraction for 3.44%, oil and gas circulation and others for 3.35%, and natural gas processing for 3.19% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices rebounded, but the basis weakened. It is still the off - season for steel, with better - than - expected decline in off - season demand. High production has not been reduced, leading to inventory accumulation pressure. Weekly SMM data shows a decline in weekly steel exports. Steel is in a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. Recent raw material rebounds support the upward shift of the finished product price center. Rebound - biased short operations or selling out - of - the - money call options are recommended [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. Global iron ore shipments increased week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports is expected to remain at a high level. The demand for hot metal increased slightly last week, and the profitability of steel mills remained stable. However, terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, and there are uncertainties in export and overseas economic changes. Port and steel mill inventories increased. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be considered bearish in the medium - to - long term. The price range may shift down to 670 - 720 [3]. Coke - Coke futures oscillated, and the spot was weak. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 23, and there may be further cuts, but a phased bottom is emerging. Supply tightened marginally due to environmental protection and maintenance. Demand has rigid support from hot metal, but the hot metal output is on a downward trend. Inventories are at a medium level. It is recommended to hedge the 2509 contract on rebounds, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot was stable. Domestic coking coal showed signs of stabilizing, with some coal types having price rebounds. Supply decreased in some regions due to environmental protection and accidents. Imported coal has different situations, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal import profits inverting. Demand from coking and downstream industries has some resilience, and there are signs of recovery in restocking demand. Inventories are at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2509 contract on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures oscillated. Supply increased slightly last week, mainly in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Demand continued to weaken, and spot prices were weak. Factory inventories decreased but were still high. Iron water demand increased slightly, and there are uncertainties in terminal demand. Non - steel demand has some short - term improvement, and exports may maintain some resilience. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese futures oscillated. Supply increased slightly last week, with restarts mainly in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. Demand is weak in the off - season. Manganese ore shipments were basically flat globally, and domestic arrivals decreased. Port inventories decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Thread steel spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged, while futures prices increased slightly. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and futures prices showed mixed changes [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace and converter - produced thread steel in Jiangsu increased, and the profit of hot - rolled coil and thread steel in different regions increased [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output increased by 0.2% to 242.2 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.1% to 868.5 tons, with thread steel production increasing by 2.2% and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 0.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.2% to 1338.9 tons, with thread steel inventory decreasing by 1.3% and hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing by 1.5% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 5.6%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 1.9%. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased by 0.4%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 3.4% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the 09 - contract basis of most powders decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.2%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.4% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, and the price indexes of new - exchange 62% Fe and Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 8.6% week - on - week, and the global shipment volume decreased by 4.5%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%, the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume increased by 4.1%, and the national monthly hot metal and crude steel output increased [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.1%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [3]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Spot prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coke remained unchanged, and the 01 - contract price increased by 0.9%. The 09 - contract basis and the J09 - J01 spread decreased [6]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3% [6]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% [6]. Inventory - Total coke inventory decreased by 1.9%, with coking plant and steel mill inventories decreasing [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 9.0% [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coking coal increased by 1.5%, and the 01 - contract price increased by 2.7%. The 09 - contract basis and the JM09 - JM01 spread decreased [6]. Overseas Coal Prices - The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs decreased by 0.1%, and the warehouse - pick - up prices of some domestic coal types remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The raw coal and clean coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3% [6]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 8.8%, and the coking coal inventories of coking plants and steel mills had different changes [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 0.8%. Spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, and some regions had price increases. The SF - SM main contract spread was 22.0 [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in some regions had different changes. The export price remained unchanged [7]. Supply - The production enterprise's operating rate increased by 4.3%, and the weekly output increased by 1.9% [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon remained unchanged [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 2.7% [7]. Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 0.1%. Spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, and some regions had price decreases [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in some regions had different changes [7]. Manganese Ore - The global manganese ore shipment was basically flat, domestic arrivals decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [7]. Supply - The weekly output of ferromanganese increased by 1.9% [7]. Demand - The demand for ferromanganese from steel - making and non - steel industries has uncertainties [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [7].