1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose with a weekly increase of about 0.76%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. The international cotton market is affected by factors such as the US cotton export sales report and weather, while the domestic textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with weak demand and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang supports the price to fluctuate strongly. Overall, the market shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. In the international market, the US cotton export sales report was not as expected, and the favorable weather led to an increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton, suppressing the price of US cotton. In the domestic market, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. As of July 10, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and there is a high risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang, which supports the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the weak demand drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger oscillatory. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in the price of foreign cotton, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.04%. As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 5.61% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position decreased by 1.86% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 14.91% month - on - month [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 3, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 75,100 bales, a 217% increase compared to the previous four weeks and a 55% increase compared to the four - week average. The cotton export volume was 240,900 bales, a 6% decrease compared to the previous week and a 9% increase compared to the four - week average. As of July 8, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.75 cents per pound, a 0.51% month - on - month decrease [14]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 15,063, and that in cotton yarn futures was 29 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,850, and that of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 91 [19][24][31]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contract was 65 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,224 yuan per ton [32]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,266 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,490 yuan per ton. As of July 10, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,560 yuan per ton [37][46]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 9, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index):M was 13,545 yuan per ton, a 0.64% month - on - month decrease; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,324 yuan per ton, a 0.37% month - on - month decrease. The port pick - up price of the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):C32S was 21,061 yuan per ton, a 0.08% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of C21S was 20,086 yuan per ton, a 0.10% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of JC32S was 22,990 yuan per ton, a 0.09% month - on - month increase [52]. - **Imported Cotton Cost and Profit**: As of July 9, 2025, the cost profit of the imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 816 yuan per ton, and the cost profit of the imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,561 yuan per ton [55]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 693,900 tons or - 16.71%, and a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons or - 8.36%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [59]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 86.3%. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 20,000 tons or 14.5%, and a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons or about 16.67%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.8% [63]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [67]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, the export of textiles was 420.14 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, and the export of clothing was 418.19 billion yuan, a 0.6% increase. In May, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year increase and an 8.9% month - on - month increase. Among them, the export of textiles was 91 billion yuan, a 2.3% decrease and a 0.9% month - on - month increase, and the export of clothing was 97.84 billion yuan, a 2.6% increase and a 17.6% month - on - month increase [71]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [76]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For corn, the international corn price has an advantage due to the good initial growth condition in the US. In the domestic market, the cooling of imported corn auction transactions, strong selling intention of grain holders, increasing feed substitution of wheat, and weakening feed demand have led to a decline in corn prices. The corn futures price continued to fall this week, showing overall weakness [8]. - For corn starch, although the production loss of corn starch enterprises has reduced the supply pressure, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch futures price has also shown a weak oscillation recently [12]. - The strategy for both corn and corn starch is to focus on short - term trading [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The corn futures price fluctuated and declined this week. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The excellent rate of US corn is high, and the international corn price has an advantage. In the domestic market, the cooling of auction transactions, increased market supply, and substitution of wheat have led to weakening prices [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [7]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures price fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2656 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The production loss has reduced the supply pressure, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch price has shown a weak oscillation [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The corn futures September contract continued to decline, with a total position of 1030900 lots, an increase of 85554 lots compared with the previous week. The corn starch futures September contract also declined, with a total position of 247864 lots, an increase of 69516 lots compared with the previous week [18]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 30902, and the net short position decreased compared with the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 9506, and the net short position also decreased [24]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn was 196479, and that of corn starch was 21979 [30]. Spot Price and Basis - As of July 10, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2426.86 yuan/ton, and the basis between the September futures price and the spot price was + 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, with a slightly decreasing trend. The basis between the September futures price and the Jilin spot price was 194 yuan/ton [35][39]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 75 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 44 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [45]. Futures Spread - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn was 350 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [53]. Substitute Spread - As of July 10, 2025, the spread between wheat and corn was 18.64 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 139 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [58]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 88.6 tons, a decrease of 15.5 tons compared with the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 1.3 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared with the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 259.6 tons, a decrease of 12.8 tons compared with the previous week, and the shipping volume was 41.8 tons, an increase of 16.6 tons compared with the previous week [49]. - **Monthly Import**: In May 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 190,000 tons, a decrease of 860,000 tons (81.9%) compared with the same period last year and an increase of 10,000 tons compared with the previous month [67]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 10, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, a decrease of 0.38 days compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [71]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of May, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [75]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of July 4, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 119.72 yuan/head, and that of purchased piglets was - 26.26 yuan/head [79]. - **Processing Profit**: As of July 11, 2025, the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 66 yuan/ton. The processing profit of corn alcohol in Henan was - 585 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 399 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 85 yuan/ton [84]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.436 million tons, an increase of 1.88% [88]. - **Starch Production and Inventory**: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 536,700 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared with the previous week; the national corn starch production was 259,400 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly operation rate was 50.14%, a decrease of 1.06% compared with the previous week. As of July 9, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.337 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared with the previous week, a weekly increase of 1.83%, a monthly increase of 2.14%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.97% [92]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of July 11, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 7.67%, a decrease of 1.05% compared with 8.72% in the previous week. The implied volatility continued to decline this week and was at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95].

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/10 报告前瞻：调查显示分析师平均预计美国 一项调查显示，分析师平均预计美国2024/25年度大豆年未库存料为3.58亿蒲式耳。 美国2025/26年度大豆产量料为43.34亿蒲式耳，单产料为52.5蒲式耳 英亩。 全球2025/26年度大豆年未库存料为1.2631亿吨；全球2025/26年度玉米年末库存料为2.7746亿吨。 巴西2024/25年度大豆产量料为1.6925亿吨，阿根廷2024/25年度大豆产量料为4,927万吨。 美国农业部定于 月11日1600GMT（北京时间 月12日00:00）公布 月作物供需报告。 年度油菜籽产量预计为 一项大宗商品研究报告显示，欧盟27 英国2025/26年度油菜籽产量预计为2,030万吨，预估区间介于1,930万吨至 2,130万吨。 在过去两周，欧洲国家气温较正常高出1-6摄氏度，大多数地区的降雨量低于平均水平，引发了对法国、德国和波 兰干旱的担忧。只有西班牙和英国的降雨量高于均值，雨量较正常高9-30毫米。 最新的气象预报显示，欧洲西部和中部地区本周末之前天气较为凉爽，未来两周气温则较高。预计欧洲西部和中部 将 ...

Core Insights - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) in Baise City, Guangxi, has formed a financial service team to address the financing challenges faced by agricultural businesses in key product areas such as star anise and ginger [1][2] - The initiative aims to enhance financial service coverage, accessibility, and satisfaction, thereby injecting strong financial momentum into local specialty industries and rural revitalization [1][2] Group 1: Financial Services and Products - The PSBC team has developed a tailored "Industry Loan" product to address the common issue of insufficient collateral among agricultural entities, leveraging a tripartite mechanism involving bank credit, agricultural guarantee company support, and industry association collaboration [2] - The "Industry Loan" offers flexible credit, inclusive interest rates, and efficient approval processes, breaking traditional credit models' rigid collateral requirements [2] - Initial statistics indicate that two major star anise buyers have expressed interest in loans totaling 6 million yuan, with potential financing needs exceeding 10 million yuan across various industry chain segments [2] Group 2: Industry Collaboration and Future Plans - The head of the ginger industry association in Tianlin County has expressed strong support for the tripartite collaboration model, planning to host promotional events to deepen the "bank + guarantee + association" service mechanism [2][3] - The PSBC aims to continue innovating its service model by developing more inclusive financial products tailored to county-level industry development needs and optimizing credit processes to support agricultural efficiency and farmer income growth [3]

Group 1: Agricultural Economic Development - The diverse utilization of land is transforming agriculture from a "food security" role to a "value-added" role, showcasing the economic vitality of various regions [2] - In Xinjiang, goji berries are creating economic value while improving soil quality in saline-alkali land, demonstrating the potential of desert agriculture [2] - In Hunan, mechanized harvesting of early rice on 422,000 acres, supported by policy subsidies, has led to increased yields and reduced costs, contributing to stable economic growth [2] Group 2: Industrial Transformation - The hardware and electrical industry in Hebei's Nanpi County is experiencing a significant transformation, with an annual output value exceeding 34 billion yuan [3] - The investment of 200 million yuan in technological upgrades at Huibang Electromechanical is enabling the production of key components for wind power equipment and entry into the new energy vehicle sector [3] - By 2024, the export value of this industry is projected to reach 70 million yuan, highlighting its growing importance in the global supply chain [3] Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Economy - Summer cultural tourism is emerging as a new engine for consumption growth, with events like the Qinhuangdao International Fireworks Festival attracting international teams and boosting related sectors such as dining and accommodation [5] - Activities like water rafting in Anhui are converting seasonal popularity into tangible tourism revenue, showcasing the economic impact of differentiated experiences [6] - The integration of cultural and tourism activities is creating new growth points in local economies, emphasizing the role of consumption in driving economic development [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro news, and capital flow. It shows the performance of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, as well as the impact of weather on soybean crops and international and domestic macro - economic factors on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including palm oil, Brent crude, WTI crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The US dollar index and exchange rates of multiple currencies are also provided [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given [2]. - CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather and Crop Impact**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal rainfall and cooler temperatures in the future. The Midwest has continuous showers, which are generally beneficial for soybean growth [4][6]. - **International Supply and Demand**: BMI predicts that Malaysia's palm oil production will partially recover to 1.95 billion tons in 2025/26, while domestic consumption will decline. Indonesia transfers nearly 400,000 hectares of confiscated oil palm plantations. Analysts' forecasts for USDA reports on global and South American crop production, export sales, and EU rapeseed production are also provided [8][10][12]. - **Market Transactions**: On July 9, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The opening rate of oil mills declined. Agricultural product prices showed some fluctuations [13]. 04 Macro News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates in July and September is estimated. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil. US economic data such as wholesale sales, mortgage application index, and EIA inventories are presented. Malaysia's central bank cuts interest rates [15]. - **Domestic News**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate rises. The Chinese central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. China's June CPI and PPI data are released, and the expected GDP scale for this year is mentioned [17]. 05 Capital Flow On July 9, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 19.597 billion yuan, with details of capital flow in different sectors such as commodity and stock index futures [20]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 隔夜国际油价上行，布伦特09合约涨0.62%。 美国EIA库存超预期增加712.8万桶,OPEC+延续快速 增产策略强化年内特别是四季度的供需宽松预期。但从三季度时间窗口来看,一方面石油旺季消费 对原油实货采购构成支撑，欧洲柴油的供应犹动引发炼化利润修复预期；另一方面，已被延期至8月 1日执行的美国对等关税最终博弈结构大概率弱于4月初水平,围绕伊核争端的中东地缘风险亦未彻 底消除,我们对三季度原油价格仍持底部抬升、震荡偏强判断,空头策略需等待旺季影响弱化后再 行介入。 (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，保太ADC12报价稳定在19500元，基差走低存在一定期现套利机会，交割 品牌溢价成交。铝和铸造铝合金现货价差扩大至千元以上但盘面上AL2511与AD2511价差维持在400- 500元波动，价差如有扩大考虑多AD空AL介入。 隔夜贵金属回落。上周美国非农数据超预期令市场放弃对7月降息押注，降息暂时落空后市场焦点转 向即将到期的美国关税政策，特朗普对部分国家加征关税但将最后期限延长至8月1日给各方谈判提 供了缓冲，同时他表示拟对铜加征50 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents overnight market information on soybeans and rapeseed in the United States and Canada, including crop growth rates, export inspection volumes, and crop quality rates, as well as spot prices of related products [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year; the emergence rate was 96%, up from 94% the previous week and lower than 98% in the same period last year and the five - year average; the flowering rate was 32%, up from 17% the previous week, the same as last year and higher than the five - year average; the pod - setting rate was 8%, up from 3% the previous week, the same as last year and higher than the five - year average [1]. - As of the week ending July 3, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 389,364 tons, within the market forecast range; the export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons; the cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 46,253,445 tons, higher than 41,848,481 tons in the same period last year [1]. - As of the week ending June 30, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed in Saskatchewan was 58.97%, and in Alberta it was 58.1%, up from 57.7% the previous week. As of the week ending July 2, the rapeseed in Manitoba was at various growth stages. The weather forecast for the next 15 days in Canada's main rapeseed - producing areas shows that the temperature will mostly be above normal and the average precipitation will be below normal [1]. Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal in Jiangsu | Rapeseed Meal in Guangdong | Soybean Oil in Jiangsu | Palm Oil in Guangzhou | Rapeseed Oil in Jiangsu | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/01 | 2830 | 2470 | 8200 | 8450 | 9630 | | 2025/07/02 | 2800 | 2460 | 8220 | 8510 | 9710 | | 2025/07/03 | 2810 | 2490 | 8210 | 8530 | 9760 | | 2025/07/04 | 2800 | 2490 | 8150 | 8520 | 9740 | | 2025/07/07 | 2790 | 2470 | 8080 | 8520 | 9670 | [2]

Group 1 - Ningxia is experiencing a peak season for the harvest of cool-season vegetables, with fresh produce like vegetable hearts and broccoli being quickly processed and shipped to international markets such as Dubai and Hong Kong [1][2] - The region's high altitude, cool climate, and significant temperature variations make it an ideal location for growing high-quality cool-season vegetables, with 70% of the produce being exported via cold chain logistics [1][3] - The local customs authority has implemented a "green channel" for the inspection of fresh agricultural products, which includes expedited checks and certifications to enhance the freshness of exported vegetables [1][2] Group 2 - To further promote the export of Ningxia's specialty agricultural products, the local customs has established a dedicated task force to support the high-quality development of advantageous industries, facilitating rapid registration processes for planting bases [2][3] - The establishment of efficient logistics channels has significantly accelerated the export of Ningxia's vegetables, with cool-season vegetables reaching Dubai within 8 hours via passenger flight cargo [2][3] - In 2024, the export value of Ningxia's agricultural products is projected to reach 1.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.3%, with vegetable exports alone increasing by 112.4% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests short - term trading for both corn and corn starch. Corn futures have been oscillating downward recently. Due to factors such as increased planting area in the US, good growth conditions, and domestic import auctions increasing supply, along with wheat's substitution advantage, the corn market is under pressure. Corn starch futures have also declined, affected by the drop in corn prices. Although the supply pressure of corn starch has weakened and the spot price is relatively stable, the demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory is increasing [9][10][14]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Key Points Summary Corn - **Strategy**: Short - term trading [9] - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract of corn futures closed at 2353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous week [10] - **Market Outlook**: In 2025, the US corn planting area decreased slightly compared to the March estimate but increased by 5% compared to 2024. The US corn inventory in the second quarter of 2025 decreased by 7% year - on - year. The domestic import corn auction started on July 1, with significant premiums. On July 4, the auction volume increased to 306,000 tons. Wheat has a significant substitution advantage, and the feed demand for corn has decreased. The corn futures price has been oscillating downward from a high level [10] Corn Starch - **Strategy**: Short - term trading [13] - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton from the previous week [14] - **Market Outlook**: Due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years. The spot price of corn starch is relatively stable, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. Recently, it has been affected by the decline in corn prices [14] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 9 - month contract of corn futures oscillated downward, with a total position of 945,346 lots, a decrease of 28,424 lots from the previous week. The 9 - month contract of corn starch futures also oscillated downward, with a total position of 178,348 lots, an increase of 28,954 lots from the previous week [20] Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 35,964, and the net short position decreased compared to the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 11,107, and the net short position also decreased [27] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 204,318, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 22,643 [33] Spot Price and Basis - As of July 3, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2436.86 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 9 - month contract and the spot average price was + 84 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2940 yuan/ton. The basis between the 9 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot price was 133 yuan/ton [38][42] Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 91 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 62 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 9 - month contract of starch and corn was 364 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [57] Substitute Spread - As of July 3, 2025, the spread between wheat and corn was 14.03 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 120 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 13 yuan/ton from the previous week [61] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn Supply - **Port Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 300 tons, the same as the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume was 252,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons week - on - week [52] - **Monthly Import**: In May 2025, the total import of ordinary corn was 190,000 tons, a decrease of 860,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 81.9% [70] - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 3, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.96 days, a decrease of 0.63 days from the previous week, a decrease of 1.93% week - on - week, and an increase of 1.62% year - on - year [74] Corn Demand - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of May, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, an increase of 40,000 month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [78] - **Breeding Profit**: As of June 27, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was 50.25 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 131.71 yuan/head [82] - **Processing Profit**: As of July 3, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 49 yuan/ton. As of July 4, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 540 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 384 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 111 yuan/ton [86] Corn Starch Supply - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 2, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.354 million tons, a decrease of 4.66% [90] - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: From June 26 to July 2, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 1500 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 264,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 51.2%, an increase of 0.05% from the previous week. As of July 2, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.313 million tons, an increase of 4000 tons from the previous week, a weekly increase of 0.31%, a monthly increase of 0.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.83% [94] 4. Option Market Analysis As of July 4, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 8.72%, a decrease of 1.13% from the previous week's 9.85%. This week, the implied volatility oscillated and declined, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [97]