1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, the market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production and demand and rapidly increasing inventory from a low level. Although the sharp rise in crude oil prices has briefly boosted market confidence, the market's demand expectations for this year are relatively weak, and the outlook for the fundamentals is pessimistic. In the short - term, the prices of black - series commodities are expected to be strong, and the futures prices are likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the market is entering the consumption peak season. The steel production is at a low level, and the iron - water production has declined significantly. The supply side has seen an increase in shipments, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The medium - term downward trend of the futures price may end [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the crude oil price remained strong after a spike and fall, and the prices of black - series commodities were short - term strong. The overall market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production and demand and increasing inventory. The downstream demand is expected to gradually start, but the market's demand expectations for this year are weak [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has broken through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and it is more likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the short term [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the spot prices of rebar decreased slightly while the spot price of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged. The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed different changes [2]. - **Production**: The total output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills remained stable last week. The output of rebar increased by 4.97% to 173.31 million tons, and the output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.75% to 301.11 million tons. The capacity utilization and operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased, and the output of rebar from electric - arc furnace steel mills increased by 44.70% to 68.66 million tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products increased by 8.29% to 1403.13 million tons, the social inventory of rebar increased by 12.33% to 637.75 million tons, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 6.78% to 381.61 million tons. The steel mill inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.27% to 548.87 million tons, the steel mill inventory of rebar increased by 2.19% to 237.93 million tons, and the steel mill inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.96% to 90.08 million tons [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.68% to 662.5 million tons, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 95.68% to 80.54 million tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 18.07% to 291.31 million tons [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The steel production is at a low level, and the iron - water production has declined significantly. The supply side has seen an increase in shipments, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the production costs on both the supply and demand sides [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude, think in terms of volatility, avoid chasing up or selling down. Try to go long with a light position on dips during the futures price correction [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the main DCE iron ore contract increased by 4.72% to 787.5 yuan/ton, and the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract increased by 4.73% to 103.74 US dollars/ton. The prices of various iron ore powders in ports also showed different changes [5]. - **Supply**: The Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 6.91% to 1552.2 million tons, and the Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased by 26.30% to 469.6 million tons. The arrival volume of iron ore in northern six ports increased by 41.80% to 1464.5 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory increased by 0.15% to 17117.86 million tons, the port trade ore inventory increased by 0.59% to 11780.21 million tons, and the sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills decreased by 3.96% to 1314.02 million tons [5]. 3.3. Industry News - From January 20 to 26, 2026, the Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Supervision Administration inspected Huixian Longtian Coal Industry Co., Ltd. and found major accident hazards, and ordered it to suspend production for rectification for 2 days [8]. - Due to the recent situation in the Strait of Hormuz, several iron ore cargo ships originally destined for the Middle East have changed their routes and headed for China, with four ship redirection events reported [8].

Group 1: Iron Ore - Latest overseas shipments are gradually recovering, while domestic arrivals have slightly decreased. Steel mill demand is average, and port inventories are rising. The market is strongly influenced by macro - sentiment, and the disk is expected to continue a strong - side oscillation [1] Group 2: Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash is slowly rising. Production has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. The float glass market has stable operation, but downstream demand is tepid. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] Group 3: Coking Coal - Coal mine复产 is restricted, but with high Mongolian coal imports, there is still pressure on the coking coal fundamentals. The disk price is affected by macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [4] Group 4: Rebar - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work and production is slow, and steel demand recovers moderately. Inventory is expected to increase this week, and steel prices face upward pressure. Cost provides some support, and steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4] Group 5: Live Pigs - Pig prices are stable and weak. There is still pressure on the supply side, and demand is poor. Although there is more inquiry for second - fattening, actual entry is limited. In the short term, prices will continue to adjust weakly. Feed cost supports prices, and in the medium - long term, futures prices have limited downward space [5] Group 6: Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil exports increased significantly in early March. Crude oil price increases provide cost support. However, domestic inventory pressure is high, and sales are poor. Palm oil is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [5] Group 7: Soybean Meal - The price of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The lower limit of the futures contract is strongly supported by high - priced US soybeans and rising shipping costs. Although the oil mill inventory has recovered, downstream inventory is sufficient, suppressing the upward space. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6] Group 8: Copper - The threat of a strike at Glencore's Australian copper refinery may affect short - term copper supply. Rising oil prices and a strong US dollar put pressure on copper prices. High inventory suppresses prices, and copper prices are expected to oscillate before the inventory inflection point [7] Group 9: Cast Aluminum Alloy - In February, automobile production and sales decreased significantly due to the Spring Festival. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and shows strong performance, but volatility should be watched [7] Group 10: Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level. Port inventory has decreased significantly, and downstream demand has gradually recovered. The spot market is average, and methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Group 11: PVC - PVC supply is abundant, and downstream demand is improving. Inventory may decrease. Rising crude oil prices increase the cost of ethylene - based PVC. The market is expected to oscillate after price increases [9] Group 12: Lead - A lead - acid battery company is building a sodium - ion battery project, which poses a long - term threat to lead demand. However, it has no short - term impact. Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range [10][11] Group 13: Crude Oil - OPEC's oil production increased in February. Global oil demand is expected to grow in 2026 and 2027. US crude oil inventory increased, and production decreased slightly. Tensions in the Middle East increase supply concerns. The release of strategic reserves can only ease price increases, and oil prices still have support [12] Group 14: Short - Fiber - Short - fiber processing fees are low, providing support for prices. However, rising raw material costs and risk - aversion sentiment slow down the resumption of work. The supply - demand driving force is average, and prices are expected to be strong due to PX and crude oil [13] Group 15: Natural Rubber - Overseas rubber production areas are in the off - season. Chinese rubber inventory is accumulating. Downstream demand shows different performances in full - steel and semi - steel tires. The 05 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [14] Group 16: Thirty - Year Treasury Bonds - After the government work meetings, incremental policies may be in the works. The bond market is expected to oscillate bearishly, and the key support level needs guidance from the Politburo meeting in April [15] Group 17: Gold - The war situation is still stalemate, and there is a risk of new tariffs. Inflation data is weak, and the prospect of interest rate cuts is uncertain. Gold has limited downward space in the short term and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [15] Group 18: Palladium - US inflation data is in line with expectations, but the impact of the Iran situation on oil prices is not reflected. The Fed's interest - rate cut decision needs more data. Palladium is expected to follow the fluctuation rhythm of silver in the medium term [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 11, the iron ore futures main contract 2605 showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern, closing at 787.5 yuan/ton with a 0.90% increase. Currently, in the first quarter, supply is relatively tight, and the demand side still faces certain policy pressure during the Two Sessions, but the overall resumption of production is expected to accelerate. After the geopolitical disturbances gradually subside, the fundamentals may boost the iron ore price to continue strengthening in stages, but the high port inventory and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space of the iron ore price [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On March 11, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were raised by 0.5 - 1.1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained the same as the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract is rising, the J - value has turned up, and the K - value and D - value continue to rise; the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 has been increasing for 4 consecutive trading days [9] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil turned down last week. Affected by weather factors in the first quarter, the overall shipment volume is at a relatively low level. The arrival volume rebounded last week and may fluctuate at a moderately low level in the future. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output before the Spring Festival slightly recovered to over 2.3 million tons, showing good demand resilience. It continued to rise in the first week after the festival and then declined, mainly affected by the production restrictions of some steel enterprises during the Two Sessions. Currently, although it is still in the off - season of demand, the profit performance is not bad. The profits per ton of blast - furnace steel for rebar and hot - rolled coils are in the positive range. Driven by profits, the resumption of production rhythm may accelerate after the Two Sessions. In terms of inventory, steel mills replenished their stocks sufficiently before the festival, and the inventory decreased significantly after the holiday consumption. It is expected that the available days of inventory will continue to decline to about 20 days. The port inventory has slightly increased, mainly affected by the decline in arrival volume and the low downstream production during the holiday. Considering that the arrival volume in March will still fluctuate at a moderately low level, while the production rhythm of downstream steel enterprises will gradually resume, it is expected that the port inventory will remain at about 170 million tons, still at a historical high [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - Wang Lanyu, the general manager of HBIS Group Co., Ltd. and a deputy to the National People's Congress, said that the intelligent transformation of the Chinese steel industry has achieved remarkable results, and new intelligent and digital technologies are widely used. Currently, the "AI + steel" is booming, and more than 95% of steel enterprises have incorporated the digital transformation strategy into their overall development process. In the future, applying more artificial intelligence to the intelligent steel - making process, high - end new product R & D, and pollution reduction and carbon reduction will effectively improve the international competitiveness of Chinese steel products [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract at Qingdao Port, the shipment volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes of iron ore at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volumes of iron ore at main ports, the available days of steel mill iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, blast - furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, electric - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption volume of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][20][22]

Macro Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI in February recorded 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from January's 49.3%, indicating continued pressure on the manufacturing sector, influenced by declines in production index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index [3] - In January, the CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 1.4%. Compared to December, the CPI growth rate narrowed due to a decrease in food prices, and the decline in both living and production materials slowed, contributing to a smaller year-on-year drop in PPI [3] A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market showed a fluctuating upward trend in February, with major indices recording gains. The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14% and 2.05%, respectively [4] - 23 out of 31 Shenwan industry sectors saw increases, with the comprehensive, steel, and building materials sectors rising over 8%. Conversely, the banking, non-bank financial, and media sectors fell by over 3% [4] - The steel sector's strong performance was driven by the implementation of the "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", which is expected to optimize industry structure and enhance concentration [4] Bond Market Performance - The bond market strengthened in February, supported by policy and market sentiment recovery. The central bank's actions, including reverse repos, helped maintain liquidity and boost the bond market [5][6] - The yield on 5-year and 10-year government bonds fell by 3 basis points and 4 basis points to 1.54% and 1.78%, respectively, while the 1-year government bond yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.32% [6] - The overall return of the bond market, as reflected by the China Bond Index, increased by 0.17% in February [6] Fund Performance - The Morningstar China Open-End Fund Index recorded a 0.72% increase in February, with all fund types showing positive returns. The stock and bond markets' strong performance led to gains in various fund indices [14] - Among equity funds, small-cap mixed funds outperformed large-cap funds, with average returns of 3.34%, 3.12%, and 2.55% for small-cap mixed, mid-cap balanced, and mid-cap growth funds, respectively [16] - Fixed-income funds collectively rose, with convertible bond funds, active bond funds, and ordinary bond funds achieving average returns of 0.33%, 0.25%, and 0.19%, respectively [17]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has officially launched a "Section 301" investigation targeting 16 major economies, focusing on the issue of "structural overcapacity" in the manufacturing sector, indicating a shift in U.S. trade policy from a country-specific approach to a global industrial competition perspective [1][6]. Investigation Scope - The investigation will cover major manufacturing centers globally, examining whether the practices of the involved economies are "unreasonable or discriminatory" and impose burdens on U.S. businesses [2]. - The economies included in the investigation are: - Asia: China, Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Singapore, and Taiwan [3]. - Europe: European Union, Switzerland, Norway [4]. - North America: Mexico [5]. Core Allegations - The USTR claims that foreign economies exhibit "structural overcapacity and production surplus" in manufacturing, which poses significant challenges to U.S. re-industrialization efforts. This overcapacity is said to crowd out U.S. domestic production and hinder potential investments in U.S. manufacturing [6]. Legal Procedures - Following the initiation of the investigation, the USTR is required to engage in consultations with the governments of the investigated economies. The USTR has formally requested dialogue with the 16 economies [8]. - A public comment period will begin on March 17, 2026, with a deadline for submissions by April 15, 2026. Public hearings are scheduled to start on May 5, 2026 [9][10][11]. Background and Impact - The "Section 301" is a unilateral retaliatory tool in U.S. trade law, allowing the USTR to impose tariffs or import restrictions if foreign trade practices are deemed "unfair." The initiation of this investigation comes after the U.S. Supreme Court recently struck down certain tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting the government to seek alternative legal tools to maintain trade pressure [12]. - Analysts suggest that focusing on "overcapacity" indicates a shift in U.S. trade disputes from traditional anti-dumping and countervailing duties to a broader industrial policy and market competition perspective, potentially leading to high tariffs on specific industrial goods from the investigated economies, thereby escalating global trade tensions [12].

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows weakness, with a decrease in blast furnace operating rates by 2.5% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 2.5 percentage points to -0.3% [2][5] - Steel apparent consumption has improved, increasing by 4.4% week-on-week and rising by 10.6 percentage points year-on-year to 4.2% [2][8] - Steel social inventory continues to rise, with an increase of 8.3% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Petrochemical and Construction Industry - In the petrochemical sector, the operating rate of soda ash has increased by 1.7% week-on-week and by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year to -0.5% [12] - The operating rate of PTA has risen by 6.1% week-on-week and by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year to -2.8% [12] - In contrast, the operating rate of polyester filament has decreased by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to -2.4% [12] - In the construction industry, cement production and demand are showing signs of recovery, with a grinding operating rate increasing by 14.7% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percentage points to 4.9% [20] - Cement shipment rates have decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 3.6% [20] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Trends - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased year-on-year to 9.7%, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 6.9%, 21.7%, and -13.9% respectively [43] - The freight volume related to domestic demand has increased, with railway freight volume rising by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year to 3.1% and highway freight vehicle traffic increasing by 20.2 percentage points to 26% [54] - Port cargo throughput has also increased year-on-year by 23.4 percentage points to 25.5% [54] Group 4: Price Trends in Agricultural Products - Agricultural product prices are showing a mixed trend, with vegetable and fruit prices decreasing by 3.9% and 0.6% respectively, while egg prices have increased by 1.1% [94] - The industrial product price index has risen by 5.0% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index increasing by 8.7% [107] Group 5: Export and Shipping Trends - The CCFI composite index has increased by 0.9% week-on-week, with significant rises in Southeast Asia shipping rates by 6.8% [84] - The BDI shipping rate has decreased by 6.1% [84]

黑色金属日报 2026 年 03 月 11 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3180 元（-10），北京敬业 3130 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3250 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3170 元（-）。 【交易策略】 今日钢价维持震荡走势，市场缺乏驱动，钢材现货整体一般，环比昨日有好转。 上周钢联数据公布，五大材小幅增产，其中螺纹增产而热卷转向增产，预计本周高炉 仍然减产，钢厂依然处于停产检修的模式；近期下游需求季节性回升，但库存仍然加 速累积，其中螺纹累库速度较快，库存由厂库向社库转移；上周全国下游工地资金到 位程度有所好转，房建项目资金到位程度好于非房地产项目。近期财政支出进度加 快，下游需求恢复情况有待观望。钢厂复产意愿不强，短期仍对原料造成压力。然而 海外地缘摩擦频繁，对大宗商品搅动仍大。因此近期钢价或维 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the steel industry, highlighting a value reassessment period driven by the transition from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency competition [2]. Core Insights - The Chinese steel industry is moving away from the "involution" model of capacity expansion, influenced by dual carbon goals and supply-side reforms. This shift is characterized by stricter capacity replacement, upgraded environmental standards, and energy consumption controls, leading to a focus on quality and efficiency [2]. - The report identifies three main drivers of the steel industry's transformation: policy constraints on capacity and carbon emissions, the rise of high-end manufacturing and new energy steel demand, and the commercialization of low-carbon technologies and product upgrades [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the production of high-value products such as special steel, high-strength steel, and electrical steel, as well as the progress in low-carbon technologies like hydrogen metallurgy and short-process steelmaking [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The steel products include pig iron, crude steel, and steel materials, categorized by chemical composition into carbon steel and alloy steel, and by form into long products, flat products, pipes, and others [6][8]. - The global steelmaking process primarily utilizes long processes (70.4% share) and short processes (29.1% share), with a trend towards more efficient and sustainable production methods [11][13]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese steel industry faces structural differentiation due to a decline in long products driven by real estate downturns, while manufacturing upgrades are boosting demand for flat products and special steel [3]. - The report forecasts a supply-demand imbalance, with production shrinking at a slower rate than demand, leading to continued oversupply until a balance is expected by 2030 [5][50]. Competitive Landscape - The top ten steel companies in China account for over half of the total crude steel production, indicating a high level of industry concentration. China Baowu Steel Group leads with a production of 130.09 million tons, significantly ahead of its closest competitor [32][33]. - The report highlights the competitive dynamics within the industry, noting that while the leading companies are enhancing their market positions, the overall market is experiencing a shift towards higher quality and specialized products [41][44]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that from 2025 to 2030, the global iron ore supply will increase while Chinese steel demand is expected to decline, leading to a significant supply surplus and downward pressure on prices [25][50]. - The transition towards electric arc furnace steelmaking is projected to increase, with the share of electric arc steel rising from 10.6% to 29.0% by 2030, reflecting a structural shift in production methods [50].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the steel industry, highlighting a value reassessment period driven by the "anti-involution" trend and supply-side reforms [2]. Core Insights - The Chinese steel industry is transitioning from a capacity expansion model to a focus on quality and efficiency, driven by stricter capacity replacement policies, upgraded environmental standards, and dual control of energy consumption. Leading companies are leveraging technological upgrades and product structure optimization to build differentiated advantages, which is expected to enhance profitability [2]. - The report identifies three main drivers of the steel industry's "anti-involution": policy constraints on capacity and carbon emissions management, the rise of high-end manufacturing and new energy steel demand, and low-carbon technology and product upgrades on the supply side [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for the industry to increase the scrap steel ratio to 40% and shift from construction steel to manufacturing steel, particularly in light of the real estate downturn and the growth of plate and special steel [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The steel products include pig iron, crude steel, and steel materials, categorized by chemical composition into carbon steel and alloy steel, and by form into long products, flat products, pipes, and others [6][8]. - The global steelmaking process primarily utilizes long processes (blast furnace-converter) and short processes (electric arc furnace), with the latter significantly reducing carbon emissions [11][13]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the Chinese steel industry has seen a decline in demand due to a significant drop in real estate, with traditional sectors peaking and new sectors continuing to grow. The current supply-demand imbalance is heavily influenced by macroeconomic policies and industry self-discipline [4][36]. - The report forecasts that from 2025 to 2030, the global iron ore supply will increase while Chinese steel demand is expected to decline, leading to a significant oversupply and downward pressure on prices [25]. Production and Consumption Trends - China's crude steel production is projected to decrease from 1.035 billion tons in 2021 to 850 million tons by 2030, with an annual decline rate of 2.2%. Meanwhile, the apparent consumption is expected to drop from 995 million tons to 770 million tons during the same period [50]. - The report highlights a structural shift in steel consumption, with traditional sectors declining and new sectors, such as high-strength and specialized products, experiencing growth [41][43]. Competitive Landscape - The report outlines a concentrated market structure, with the top ten steel producers in China accounting for over 51.6% of total crude steel production in 2024. China Baowu Steel Group leads with a production of 130.09 million tons, significantly ahead of its closest competitor [32][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The short - term trend of coke is mainly wide - range oscillation, and it is advisable to adopt a low - buying strategy. Attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average and the pressure near the previous high [1]. Summary by Related Content Supply - Currently, coke enterprises in the Tangshan market mostly maintain the production restriction rhythm. Due to the important meeting, environmental protection production restriction policies still suppress the operating rate of coke enterprises, and coke supply has slightly decreased this week [1]. - Coke enterprises' losses have widened after the first round of coke price cuts, and some have started to limit production [1]. Profit - This week, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 17 yuan/ton, but steel mills' profits are limited, and they maintain cautious procurement [1]. Downstream Demand - During the important meeting, blast furnaces in the Tangshan area have been restricted recently. This week, the steel mills' molten iron output has decreased month - on - month. The profitability rate of blast furnaces of 247 steel mills has decreased by 15.15% year - on - year; the average daily molten iron output has decreased by 5.69 million tons month - on - month to 227.59 million tons, reaching a new low for the year [1]. Upstream Coking Coal - The inventory at the mine end has continued to accumulate, while the inventory in the middle and lower reaches has continued to decline. The comprehensive inventory of coking coal has dropped to a 4.5 - month low, lower than the level of previous years year - on - year [1]. News - The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration has ordered Huixian Longtian Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for rectification [1]. - The situation in the Middle East in the external market has deteriorated, and the sharp fluctuations in crude oil have affected the sentiment of the black - series commodities. At the macro level, the government work report this year has mentioned "anti - involution" again, and attention should be paid to subsequent stable - growth policies [1].