废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/07/29 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/22 | 2214 | 2298 | 2055 | 2259 | 2253 | 2172 | | 2025/07/23 | 2225 | 2316 | 2069 | 2266 | 2264 | 2181 | | 2025/07/24 | 2225 | 2317 | 2071 | 2263 | 2261 | 2174 | | 2025/07/25 | 2230 | 2318 | 2071 | 2269 | 2269 | 2174 | | 2025/07/28 | 2238 | 2312 | 2074 | 2252 | 2276 | 2166 | | 环比 | 8 | -6 | 3 | -17 | 7 | -8 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: There is a short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, remaining relatively stable. The improvement of US consumer demand depends on wealth effect and income expectations. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The overall impact of upcoming US tariff policies may be lower than in April, but uncertainties remain [7]. - Domestic macro: As an important meeting approaches, the expectation of "anti - involution" policies has strengthened. Although it is the off - season, domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports remain resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies may focus on using existing policies, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [7]. - Asset views: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter is higher. Overseas, factors such as tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern will continue. Strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: Short - term weak recovery in commodity demand. US consumer purchase intentions are fluctuating at a low level, and price suppression persists. Improvement depends on wealth effect and income expectations. Follow the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. Tariff policies may be implemented before August 1st and 12th, with uncertainties [7]. - Domestic: "Anti - involution" policy expectations have strengthened. Some industries have administrative production - cut expectations. Domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports are resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies may use existing policies, with more incremental policies likely in the fourth quarter [7]. - Assets: Focus on Sino - US tariff negotiations and Politburo meeting policies. Policy - driven logic will be stronger in the second half of the year. Overseas, pay attention to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. The weak - dollar pattern will continue in the long - term. Strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is advisable [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Opportunities are spreading across sectors, but there is a lack of incremental funds. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [8]. - Stock index options: Continue to hold bull spreads. Option liquidity is deteriorating, and the short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains under pressure. Key concerns are unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. Key factors are Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Key factors are tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products: The fundamentals are marginally improving, and cost support is strong. Key factors are the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot - metal production. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Iron ore: Hot - metal production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. Key factors are overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coke: The futures price has risen significantly, and the price - increase progress has accelerated. Key factors are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coking coal: The "anti - involution" expectation has risen, and the futures price has continuously hit the daily limit. Key factors are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Ferrosilicon: Inventory pressure is acceptable, and it follows the sector's trend. Key factors are raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Manganese silicon: Supply - demand contradictions are acceptable, and it follows the sector's trend. Key factors are cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Glass: Middle and downstream sectors are replenishing stocks simultaneously, and upstream inventory has significantly decreased. Key factor is spot sales. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Soda ash: Supply - demand changes are limited, and sentiment supports the price. Key factor is soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper: A non - ferrous growth - stabilizing plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. Key factors are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovish Fed policies, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Alumina: The futures sentiment is fluctuating, and the price is adjusting at a high level. Key factors are unexpected ore复产 and unexpected electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Aluminum: The sentiment boost has slowed, and the aluminum price has declined. Key factors are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Zinc: Macro sentiment still exists, and the zinc price is fluctuating at a high level. Key factors are macro - turning risks and unexpected zinc ore supply recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Lead: Supply - demand is relatively loose, and the lead price is fluctuating. Key factors are supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Nickel: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed, and the nickel price is fluctuating widely in the short - term. Key factors are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes and Indonesian policy risks. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is fluctuating. Key factors are Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Tin: LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is slightly upward - trending. Key factors are the expectation of Wa State's复产 and demand improvement. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Industrial silicon: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. Key factors are unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Lithium carbonate: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has回调 after rising. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: It is under pressure at a high level. Key factors are OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - LPG: Supply pressure continues, and chemical demand is acceptable. Key factor is the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Asphalt: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price is under pressure. Key factor is unexpected demand. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: It is weak during the power - generation peak season. Key factors are crude oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The futures price follows the crude - oil trend and is weakening. Key factors are crude oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - Methanol: It is boosted by coal in the short - term. Key factors are macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Urea: Domestic supply - demand cannot provide strong support, and export pull is less than expected. Key factors are export policies and capacity elimination. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Ethylene glycol: The price is supported by the macro - environment, but there is a risk of over - trading. Key factors are coal - price trends and the inflection point of visible inventory accumulation. The short - term outlook is a volatile decline [10]. - PX: Sentiment disturbances are increasing, and fundamental drivers are weakening. Key factors are overseas device restarts and downstream PTA device maintenance schedules. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PTA: Major plant maintenance is approaching, and inventory accumulation may slow down. Key factors are the implementation of unexpected major plant maintenance and downstream polyester production cuts. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Short - fiber: It has difficulty following the upstream price increase, and the processing fee is compressed. Key factors are textile exports and downstream purchasing rhythms. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Bottle - chip: During the production - cut season, cost pricing is more important than supply - demand. Key factor is the later - stage bottle - chip production start - up. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Propylene: Short - term contradictions are limited, and it may follow polypropylene. Key factors are oil prices and domestic macro - situation. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PP: It is boosted by "anti - involution" but supply - demand is still under pressure. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Plastic: It is boosted by the macro - environment but the fundamental support is weak. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Styrene: The commodity sentiment has improved. Key factors are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PVC: The sentiment has cooled. Key factors are expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Caustic soda: Cost support is strong, and the downward space is limited. Key factors are market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Oils and fats: Market sentiment has weakened. Key factors are US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Protein meal: Market sentiment has subsided, and prices are falling. Key factors are US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade wars. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Corn/starch: The spot price is stable, waiting for new guidance. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Live pigs: Sentiment - based trading has cooled, and the futures price has declined from a high level. Key factors are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Rubber: There are炒作 themes, and the rubber price has risen rapidly in the afternoon. Key factors are production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures price is in an adjustment phase. Key factor is significant crude - oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Pulp: It is mainly driven by the macro - environment. Key factors are macro - economic changes and US - dollar - quoted price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Cotton: The main - contract position has decreased, and the upward momentum has weakened. Key factors are demand and production. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Sugar: Import volume is expected to increase, limiting the price rebound. Key factor is abnormal weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [10].

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如何量化本轮"反内卷"的经济效应？20250728 摘要 自 6 月以来，反内卷措施有效支撑价格上涨，尤其钢铁和煤炭 7 月涨幅 显著，带动生产资料价格回升，预示 7、8 月 PPI 环比持续回升，三季度 或因低基数效应快速增长。 当前光伏、钢铁、水泥、汽车和煤炭五大行业正推进反内卷。光伏和钢 铁已有明确减产计划，而汽车和煤炭侧重于调控价格，旨在使行业价格 回归合理区间。 通过供给价格弹性估算，煤炭、光伏、汽车、水泥等五大行业弹性系数 分别为 0.2, 0.47, 0.59, 0.67 和 1.02，行业规模占比约 20%，小于 2015-2016 年供给侧改革涉及的 30%。 测算显示，五大行业反内卷对整体通胀直接推动约 1.8 个百分点。考虑 产业链外溢效应，上游原材料涨价传导至下游，可能进一步推升整体市 场物价水平。 反内卷政策理论上可能对中国 PPI 产生 2.3 个百分点左右的推升作用， 但实际涨幅可能受中下游减产导致原材料需求减少和价格上涨抑制需求 等因素压制。 Q&A 近期市场对反内卷政策的关注度上升，您能否介绍一下这些政策对经济和通胀 的影响？ 反内卷政策自 7 月 1 日中财委第六次会议后逐 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese stock market, specifically the Shanghai Composite Index and various sectors within it. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Trend Analysis**: The current market shows a bullish divergence in moving averages, indicating stability for at least six months, with historical data suggesting support near the 60-day moving average during pullbacks [1][4][6]. 2. **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio, focusing on low-volatility and stable sectors, while being optimistic about future market trends [1][7]. 3. **Currency Impact**: The appreciation of the RMB against the USD is seen as a positive factor for the A-share market, likely boosting investor confidence and market performance [1][13][21]. 4. **Sector Performance**: Cyclical sectors like coal and steel have shown strong performance due to favorable policies, but this is viewed as an initial rebound rather than a sustained upward trend [1][14][16]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: Recent market movements have been characterized by structural features and rapid rotation among sectors, suggesting equal opportunities across various segments [1][8][9]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context**: Past instances of similar bullish patterns have led to stable market performance, with significant resistance levels identified around 3,750 to 3,900 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [2][22][23]. 2. **Short-term Support Levels**: The 20-day moving average is highlighted as a critical support level, with further attention on the 60-day moving average if the former is breached [7][25]. 3. **Banking Sector Outlook**: Recent declines in bank stocks are attributed to internal adjustments and a shift in investor preference towards more flexible sectors, although the long-term outlook for banks remains positive [18]. 4. **Investment Style**: The current favorable investment style is identified as large-cap growth, particularly in consumer and technology sectors, which are closely linked to broader market indices [30]. 5. **Sector Valuation**: The highest value sectors currently include battery materials, non-ferrous metals, steel, pharmaceuticals, and construction, indicating potential investment opportunities [31]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and strategic investment considerations.

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the outlook for the Chinese capital market, focusing on various sectors including financials, technology, and commodities, particularly in the context of economic challenges and policy reforms. Key Points and Arguments Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to reach a high of approximately 3,800 to 4,000 points by the end of the year, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index also anticipated to hit new yearly highs [2][20]. - Despite some market volatility expected in August, it is viewed as a final opportunity to increase positions in the market for the year [2][20]. Economic Conditions - The prevailing sentiment is that the economic downturn is widely recognized, but it is not expected to lead to significant market corrections as seen in previous years [3][4]. - The current market conditions are compared to Japan's past economic stagnation, noting that while China's economy has not reached that level, asset prices have already adjusted significantly [6][10]. Investment Strategy - The focus remains on sectors such as financials, technology, and certain cyclical commodities, with an emphasis on the importance of long-term investment logic [20][21]. - The decline in risk-free interest rates is highlighted as a critical factor that will drive market growth and attract new capital into the stock market by 2025 [9][20]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Financial Sector**: Strong recommendations for investing in financial stocks, particularly brokerages, as they are expected to benefit from the market's upward trajectory [16][20]. - **Technology Sector**: Continued optimism for growth in technology stocks, especially in AI and related fields, as demand is expected to rise significantly [25][26]. - **Cyclical Commodities**: The cyclical commodities sector is viewed as undervalued, with potential for price increases as economic conditions improve [17][19]. Policy Implications - Recent economic policies are seen as timely and appropriate, aimed at enhancing investor returns, which is a shift from previous years [8][20]. - The importance of structural reforms in the capital market is emphasized, as they are expected to improve the overall investment climate and attract more capital [12][20]. Risks and Considerations - The potential for a disconnect between commodity prices and stock prices is noted, with the latter expected to rise even if commodity prices do not follow suit [19][20]. - The need for investors to focus on companies with clear long-term growth narratives is stressed, as those without such narratives may struggle to attract investment [20][21]. Additional Important Content - The discussion includes insights into specific sectors such as the rare earth materials and chemicals industries, with recommendations for companies that are well-positioned to benefit from current market dynamics [22][29][35]. - The impact of upcoming expirations of high-yield deposits and financial products is anticipated to influence market liquidity and investment behavior [14][20]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market outlook and strategic investment considerations.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main line of "anti - involution" in the stock index futures market is switching. The market has expectations for stimulus policies, and new main lines such as high - prosperity sectors in the semi - annual report and sectors related to demand - side policies are emerging. It is recommended to continue to allocate long positions in IM [3][9]. - In the stock index options market, the volatility has shown an inflection point, and the probability of short - term volatility decline is relatively high. It is advisable to build positions for short - volatility strategies. The certainty of volatility strategies is slightly stronger than that of directional strategies [4][10]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the sentiment has improved, but there are still many short - term disturbing factors, and the market is expected to be volatile [4][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell, with narrow - range trading and shrinking volume. The market risk preference was at a relatively high level, and the main line showed signs of switching [3][9]. - **Reasons for Main - line Switching**: Firstly, the China - US tariff negotiation is in progress, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies. Secondly, the "anti - involution" theme has cooled down, and the coal and steel industries in the stock market led the decline on Monday. Thirdly, new main - line directions are emerging, such as high - prosperity sectors in the semi - annual report and sectors related to demand - side policies [3][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in IM with a half - position [9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Volatility**: Last week, the "anti - involution" policy supported the volatility, but this week, the volatility of most varieties showed an inflection point in the morning and closed down in the afternoon. The short - term probability of volatility decline is high [4][10]. - **Sentiment Index**: Weak liquidity and the expiration of all current - month contracts suggest that trading - type funds are relatively conservative in the short term [4][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Focus on short - volatility strategies in the short term and continue to hold the medium - term covered - call strategy [4][10]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose collectively, and the sentiment in the bond market improved. The T main contract opened higher and then fluctuated [4][10]. - **Reasons for Improvement**: Firstly, most commodity futures fell, and the speculative sentiment in the market cooled down. Secondly, the central bank's net investment in the open - market operation at the end of the month improved the capital situation. Thirdly, there was an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect in the intraday trading [4][10][12]. - **Short - term Outlook**: There are still many disturbing factors in the bond market, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term [4][12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Be cautious in trend strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focus on the basis convergence of the TL main contract, and the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic indicators to be announced this week include the US July ADP employment number, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and China's July official manufacturing PMI [14]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Industry**: The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments proposed to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, consolidate the industrial economy, and promote the development of emerging technologies [14]. - **Parenting Subsidy**: The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was announced, providing subsidies for infants under 3 years old [15]. - **Trade Talks**: China hopes to promote the stable and healthy development of China - US economic and trade relations through dialogue and cooperation [15]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions to monitor data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data is not provided in the summary part.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns an overall "oscillating" rating to the black building materials sector [6][8][9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the black market rose to a high level driven by macro factors, the market became extremely sensitive. Following the exchange's position - limit notice last Friday, the market sentiment took a sharp turn overnight, with coking coal hitting the daily limit. As the outcome of important meetings remains uncertain, funds tend to take a risk - averse approach. The fundamental situation in the industry has changed little, and no obvious turnaround has been observed in the terminal sector. After a large - scale replenishment in the middle reaches, a continuous price decline may lead to significant sales by traders, amplifying the bearish sentiment. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and in the long term, the overall trading should be bearish as the focus returns to the fundamentals [1][2] - The volatility of the black market has increased recently, and there may still be macro - level disturbances in the future. The key factors to watch are the implementation of policies and the performance of terminal demand [6] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased on a month - on - month basis, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased as expected. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for iron ore. Due to low arrivals and high demand, the inventory at 45 ports of iron ore has slightly decreased. With high demand and stable supply, there is limited bearish driving force in the fundamentals of iron ore. However, as the short - term macro - level positive factors have been mostly priced in, the price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - After the exchange adjusted the trading limit of the JM2509 contract last Friday, the market sentiment quickly cooled down, and the coking coal futures hit the daily limit across the board. There are still disruptions in production at the origin, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been above 1,000 trucks in recent days, remaining at a high level. Affected by the sharp decline in the futures market, the downstream and traders have become more cautious, and the auction results have been mediocre. After three rounds of price increases for coke, the coking profit is still under pressure. Coke producers in the main producing areas initiated a fourth - round price increase over the weekend. Given the current tight supply - demand structure of coke and the pressure on coking profit, the fourth - round price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [3] Alloys - Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the manganese - silicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. With the futures market remaining at a high level, the spot prices remain firm. As coke enters the price - increase cycle, the cost support for manganese - silicon is continuously strengthening. Manganese ore traders at ports are more inclined to hold prices, and low - priced supplies are scarce, with the ore prices remaining stable overall. The output of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3][6] Glass - After the glass futures hit the daily limit, the market sentiment weakened rapidly, and the production - sales ratio dropped significantly. On the supply side, there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line has been shut down for cold repair. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and there are no prominent internal contradictions, but there are many market - sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. However, as the Politburo meeting is approaching, the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate. In the short term, both the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. The long - term over - supply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the rising "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price. After the positive feedback, the inventory locked in the positive spread is large, and the delivery pressure is high. In the short term, it is easy to rise but difficult to fall, while in the long term, the price center will still decline [6] Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: After the exchange adjusted the coking coal trading limit, the market sentiment cooled down, and the futures prices fell from a high level. The spot trading volume of steel was generally weak, with only a small amount of speculative and rigid - demand purchases at low prices. Last week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased on a month - on - month basis; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory slightly accumulated; the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and the inventory slightly decreased. The inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the fundamental contradictions in the off - season are not obvious. In the future, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation for steel, but due to the low inventory level, the fundamental pressure is limited. The futures prices are easily affected by market sentiment and are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [8] - **Iron Ore**: The arrivals at ports have decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas mine shipments have increased on a month - on - month basis, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased as expected. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for iron ore. With high demand and stable supply, there is limited bearish driving force in the fundamentals of iron ore. However, as the short - term macro - level positive factors have been mostly priced in, the price is expected to oscillate [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume has significantly increased, and the spot price has risen. The fundamentals of scrap steel are acceptable, with an increase in rebar production, a decrease in inventory, and an increase in apparent demand this week. On the supply side, the arrival volume has increased significantly. On the demand side, the profits of electric arc furnaces during off - peak hours have improved, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process steelmaking has increased. The inventory in steel mills has slightly decreased. The demand for scrap steel is at a high level, and there are no prominent fundamental contradictions. After Shagang raised its price, the spot price has followed suit. However, as the steel price has declined, scrap steel itself lacks upward - driving force and is expected to oscillate [9] - **Coke**: The spot market has initiated a fourth - round price increase, and the futures followed coking coal to hit the daily limit. After three rounds of price increases, the coking profit is still under pressure, and coke producers in the main producing areas initiated a fourth - round price increase over the weekend. Meanwhile, the supply of coke is still affected by environmental protection and maintenance. On the demand side, although the molten iron output has slightly decreased on a month - on - month basis, it remains at a high level, and there is still rigid demand. The downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. The inventory of coke producers has continuously decreased. The current supply - demand structure of coke is tight, and the fourth - round price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [10] - **Coking Coal**: There are continuous disturbances in coal mine supply, and the market enthusiasm remains high. In the futures market, there are strong expectations for the coal supply - side reform, and the positive market sentiment persists. In the spot market, the prices of coking coal have increased. On the supply side, there are still disruptions in production at the origin, and the supply is still restricted. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been around 1,000 trucks in recent days, and the port transactions are good. On the demand side, the coke output is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Recently, downstream enterprises and traders have been actively purchasing, resulting in a significant reduction in coal mine inventory. Currently, the fundamental supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and the key factors to watch are regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. In the short term, coking coal still has upward potential due to market sentiment [11] - **Glass**: The speculative sentiment has declined, and the inventory in the middle reaches has significantly increased. The demand in the off - season has decreased, and the orders of deep - processing enterprises have declined on a month - on - month basis. After the futures hit the daily limit, the market sentiment weakened rapidly, and the production - sales ratio dropped significantly. On the supply side, the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and there are no prominent internal contradictions, but there are many market - sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. However, as the Politburo meeting is approaching, the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate. In the short term, both the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. In the long term, if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13] - **Soda Ash**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices have rapidly declined. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. Although the production has decreased due to a pipeline problem at Jinshan No. 3 Plant today, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain at a rigid - purchase level, and the demand has weakened. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has recovered, but the overall demand in the downstream is poor, mainly for periodic inventory replenishment. The long - term over - supply situation is difficult to change. In the short term, the rising "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price. After the positive feedback, the inventory in the middle reaches is high, and most of it is locked in the futures market, resulting in large delivery pressure. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and with the support of the "anti - involution" sentiment, it is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, while in the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [14] - **Silicon Manganese**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated. Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the manganese - silicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. With the futures market remaining at a high level, the spot prices remain firm. As coke enters the price - increase cycle, the cost support for manganese - silicon is continuously strengthening. Manganese ore traders at ports are more inclined to hold prices, and low - priced supplies are scarce, with the ore prices remaining stable overall. The downstream demand for manganese - silicon remains resilient, but as the profit - repair environment promotes the resumption of production by manufacturers, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector, and the upside potential in the long term should be viewed with caution [16] - **Ferrosilicon**: The bullish sentiment has cooled down, and the futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated. Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the ferrosilicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, the overall sentiment is acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. On the supply side, the industry's profit has improved significantly, and manufacturers are more motivated to resume production, so the output is expected to increase rapidly. On the demand side, the steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector. However, the supply - demand gap may narrow in the future, and the upside potential in the long term should be viewed with caution [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental index from July 21 to July 25, 2025, covering various aspects such as production, demand, prices, transportation, inventory, and financing. It shows that the fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with different trends in each sub - index, including changes in growth rates and fluctuations in specific indicators [1][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.8 points (previous value 126.7 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds weakens, with the signal factor at 4.6% (previous value 4.7%) [1][9]. 2. Production - The industrial production high - frequency index is 126.1 (previous value 126.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The PX operating rate has been declining continuously. The current PX operating rate is 82.4% (previous value 83.2%) [1][13]. 3. Real Estate Sales - The real estate sales high - frequency index shows that property transactions are picking up. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 21.0 million square meters (previous value 17.1 million square meters), and the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 7.8% (previous value 6.7%) [25]. 4. Infrastructure Investment - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 119.8 (previous value 119.5), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt devices has decreased, with the current operating rate at 28.8% (previous value 32.8%) [9][34]. 5. Export - The export high - frequency index is 143.9 (previous value 144.0), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has been declining continuously, with the current CCFI index at 1261 points (previous value 1304 points) [9][36]. 6. Consumption - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.7 (previous value 119.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 points and a year - on - year increase of 2.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers continue to rise. The current retail sales of passenger vehicle manufacturers are 58,207 units (previous value 47,548 units), and the wholesale sales are 57,826 units (previous value 46,085 units) [9][49]. 7. CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value 0.0%). Fruit prices continue to decline. The average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg (previous value 7.3 yuan/kg) [1][55]. 8. PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.2% (previous value 0.1%). The price of thermal coal has rebounded. The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 649 yuan/ton (previous value 637 yuan/ton) [1][61]. 9. Transportation - The transportation high - frequency index is 129.2 (previous value 129.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 8.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Passenger volume and flight operation numbers have decreased. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 39 million person - times (previous value 41.14 million person - times), and the number of domestic flights is 14,428 flights (previous value 14,653 flights) [2][71]. 10. Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index is 161.0 (previous value 160.9), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 9.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. Soda ash inventory has declined. The current soda ash inventory is 1.874 million tons (previous value 1.895 million tons) [2][77]. 11. Financing - The financing high - frequency index is 232.7 (previous value 232.1), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points and a year - on - year increase of 29.6 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands. Net financing of local government bonds and credit bonds has increased. The net financing of local government bonds is 292.9 billion yuan (previous value 150.5 billion yuan), and the net financing of credit bonds is 54.9 billion yuan (previous value 44.6 billion yuan) [2][87].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and policy expectations. Different asset classes show different trends and potential investment opportunities and risks. Traders should pay attention to market sentiment changes, fundamental factors, and policy developments [2][3][6] - For most commodities, short - term price fluctuations are affected by market sentiment, especially the "anti -内卷" and supply - side reform expectations. However, in the long - term, fundamental factors such as supply and demand will play a more important role. Some commodities may face price adjustments due to over - speculation, while others may have potential based on their own fundamentals [33][37] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes Sino - US economic and trade talks, industrial policies, and commodity futures market performance. The market has seen an all - around rise with increased trading volume. It is recommended to focus on the end - of - month Politburo meeting and consider going long on IF index futures on dips [2] Treasury Bonds - On Monday, Treasury bond futures rose. The economic data in the second quarter was resilient, but the "rush - to - export" effect may weaken. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. Short - term market sentiment in commodities and stocks suppresses the bond market, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [3][4][5] Precious Metals - Domestic precious metals prices fell slightly, while overseas prices rose slightly. Geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties have eased, and US economic data is resilient, putting short - term pressure on precious metals prices. However, the Fed's monetary policy may turn dovish, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, especially focusing on silver [6][7] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US is close to a trade agreement with the EU, and the dollar index rises. Copper prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate due to uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs, as well as seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports [9][10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuated. The domestic black - series commodities weakened, and aluminum inventories increased. Without unexpected policy announcements, market sentiment may be under pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to low - level inventories and weak downstream demand [11] Zinc - Zinc prices fell. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish. Short - term factors such as Fed's dovish sentiment and overseas structural risks need to be considered, and caution is needed for price fluctuations [12] Lead - Lead prices fell slightly. Lead ingot supply is marginally tightening, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Environmental inspections may affect smelter operations, and there is a possibility of price strengthening. Caution is needed for price fluctuations [13][14] Nickel - Nickel prices fell. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel iron has an oversupply problem. In the short - term, the macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline further. It is recommended to hold short positions or go short on rallies [15] Tin - Tin prices fell. Short - term tin ore supply is still tight, but downstream demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [16] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices fell sharply. The commodity market has cooled, and there is uncertainty in capital games. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders should choose appropriate entry points [17][18] Alumina - Alumina prices fell. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and the over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to relevant policies [19] Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices fell. The market atmosphere has weakened, and the supply is expected to increase. If downstream demand cannot keep up, prices may face pressure. Attention should be paid to macro - news and downstream demand [20] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The downstream is in the off - season, and supply and demand are weak. Although there is cost support, there is upward pressure on prices [21][22] Black Building Materials Steel - Steel prices fell. The commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the cost has decreased. Export volume has decreased, and the fundamentals of different steel products vary. Attention should be paid to policy signals and downstream demand [24][25] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fell. Overseas shipments are increasing, and demand is high but slightly declining. Inventory has increased slightly. Short - term prices may adjust, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - policies [26][27] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices fluctuated. Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and may be volatile. In the long - term, they depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [28] - Soda ash prices fell. Supply has decreased, and inventory pressure has eased. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [29] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of a sharp decline as sentiment fades. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see, and relevant enterprises consider hedging [30][31][33] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices fell. Short - term prices are expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage. It is recommended to wait and see [34] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices fell. Supply concerns may ease, and there are differences between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a spread trading strategy [39][40][41] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices showed different trends. The fundamental market is healthy, and there is upward momentum, but seasonal demand weakness in August will limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a short - term target price [42] Methanol - Methanol prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of decline as sentiment cools. Fundamentally, supply may increase and demand may weaken, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [43] Urea - Urea prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply is decreasing and demand is weak. Exports are an important factor, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips [44] Styrene - Styrene prices fell. The market expects positive policies, and the cost side provides support. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upward [45][46] PVC - PVC prices fell. The fundamentals are weak with strong supply and weak demand and high valuation. Attention should be paid to export conditions and the risk of price decline after sentiment fades [47] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply is increasing, and demand recovery is limited. Inventory is expected to increase, and short - term valuation may decline [48] PTA - PTA prices fell. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate. Demand is gradually improving, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities following PX [49] Para - Xylene - Para - xylene prices fell. The load is high, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities following crude oil [50] Polyethylene (PE) - PE prices fell. The market expects positive policies, and the cost side provides support. The short - term contradiction has shifted, and prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [51] Polypropylene (PP) - PP prices fell. Supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [52][53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pig prices were stable to weak. The market is trading on policy intervention, and the supply - surplus logic has changed. It is recommended to focus on spread trading opportunities [55] Eggs - Egg prices fell. Supply is stable, and demand is average. Short - term prices of near - month contracts will oscillate, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in post - festival contracts [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean prices fell, and domestic soybean meal prices were weak. North American weather is favorable, and domestic soybean meal inventory is high. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost - range and look for opportunities to widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [57][59][60] Oils and Fats - Palm oil exports and production data showed different trends. The domestic oil inventory increased slightly. EPA policies and other factors support the price center, but there are also bearish factors. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [61][62][63] Sugar - Sugar prices fell. Brazilian port sugar shipments increased, and domestic import supply pressure may increase. Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64][65] Cotton - Cotton prices fell. Downstream consumption is average, and there is a potential negative factor of additional import quotas. The price has partially reflected the positive expectation, and caution is needed [66]