化工日报 | 2025-12-11 天然橡胶社会库存环比继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15215元/吨，较前一日变动+230元/吨；NR主力合约12270元/吨，较前一日变动+190 元/吨；BR主力合约10605元/吨，较前一日变动+155元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14500元/吨，较前 一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1840美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1735美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10600元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价10500元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。 市场资讯 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年11月份，我国重卡市场共计销售10万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和 新能源），环比今年10月下降约6%，比上年同期的6.85万辆大幅增长约46%。 据隆众资讯了解，进入12月份全钢胎交投表现平淡，受季节性淡季影响，市场需求进一步转弱，市场货源相对充 足情况下， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Although the geopolitical premium of oil has disappeared and OPEC has increased production in a very limited scale, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, the oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. - After the positive factors of methanol are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port due to high import arrivals and potential maintenance of olefin plants. The overall supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals of methanol still have certain pressures. It is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. - The urea market is showing signs of improvement in supply - demand. The lower price has support, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. - For rubber, currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks with a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - The PVC market has a poor supply - demand situation. Under the reality of strong supply and weak demand in China, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of over - supply. Before substantial production cuts in the industry, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is expected that the market will be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost - end changes in the first quarter of next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. Currently, the valuation is at a neutral level. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [27]. - For PTA, the supply - side unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. The demand - side load is expected to remain high in the short term, but the processing fee has limited upside space. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is expected to decline in December, but the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still weak. The valuation is currently neutral - to - low, and attention should be paid to the rebound risk [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 5.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.25%, at 443.70 yuan/barrel; related high - sulfur refined oil futures also declined. The geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC has increased production in a limited scale, and its supply has not increased significantly [7]. - **Strategic View**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. Fuel Oil - **Market Information**: High - sulfur fuel oil closed down 16.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.65%, at 2427.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 5.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%, at 3009.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.26 million barrels to 6.96 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels to 3.19 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 10.91%; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 13.79 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 12.62%; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.89 million barrels to 23.93 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.88% [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 3, in Lunan increased by 5.5, in Inner Mongolia decreased by 5. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 13 yuan, at 2053 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 25. The 1 - 5 spread was + 1, at - 76 [3]. - **Strategic View**: After the positive factors are realized, the market will enter short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further reduced, but there are still pressures in the future. The overall supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals have certain pressures. It is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong decreased by 10, remained stable in Henan and Hubei. The 01 - contract increased by 2 yuan, at 1645 yuan, with a basis of + 25. The 1 - 5 spread was + 0, at - 68 [6]. - **Strategic View**: The market is rising in shock, and the basis and inter - month spread have strengthened. The demand has improved in the short term, and the enterprise's pre - sales have increased significantly. The export is gradually gathering at the port, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The supply is expected to decline seasonally, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The price has support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rebounded strongly, possibly due to the escalating signs of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict. The low inventory of RU on the exchange and the Thailand - Cambodia conflict are positive factors for the rubber price. The long - side believes that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may limit rubber production, the seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. The short - side believes that the macro - expectation is uncertain, the demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than last week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than last week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 110.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 tons, an increase of 2.1% [8][9][10][11]. - **Strategic View**: Currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks with a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 39 yuan, at 4328 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4330 (- 30) yuan/ton, with a basis of 2 (+ 9) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 284 (+ 3) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the operating rate of the calcium - carbide method was 82.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 73.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The in - plant inventory was 32.6 tons (+ 0.3), and the social inventory was 105.9 tons (+ 1.6) [14]. - **Strategic View**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historically low level, but the supply - side maintenance is less, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, and the demand - side is under pressure. Although exports to India are expected to remain high, it is still difficult to digest the excess production capacity. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand in China, it is difficult to reverse the over - supply pattern. Before substantial production cuts in the industry, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of pure benzene was 5440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the basis of pure benzene was - 14 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of styrene was 6630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of styrene was 6469 yuan/ton, a decrease of 138 yuan/ton; the basis was 161 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated device profit of EB was - 225.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66%; the inventory at Jiangsu port was 16.42 tons, an inventory build - up of 1.59 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 42.34%, an increase of 0.10%; the operating rate of PS was 57.60%, an increase of 1.70%; the operating rate of EPS was 54.75%, a decrease of 1.52%; the operating rate of ABS was 71.20%, a decrease of 1.20% [17]. - **Strategic View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral - to - low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. The supply of pure benzene is still relatively abundant. The operating rate of styrene continues to increase, and the port inventory continues to build up significantly. The overall operating rate of three S in the demand - side is rising in shock. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6561 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 44 yuan/ton, a weakening of 34 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The production enterprise inventory was 45.4 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 4.93 tons; the trader inventory was 4.71 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 0.33 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19 yuan/ton [20]. - **Strategic View**: OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The downward space for PE valuation is limited, but the number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high in the same period, which exerts great pressure on the market. The overall inventory is being reduced at a high level, which will support the price. As the seasonal off - season approaches, the raw material inventory of agricultural films in the demand - side may peak, and the overall operating rate will decline in shock. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, a weakening of 21 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The production enterprise inventory was 54.63 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 4.75 tons; the trader inventory was 20.05 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 1.29 tons; the port inventory was 6.53 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 0.05 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The LL - PP spread was 399 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 37 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategic View**: The EIA monthly report predicts that global oil inventory will rebound, and the supply surplus may expand. There is still 145 tons of planned production capacity on the supply - side, with relatively high pressure. The downstream operating rate fluctuates seasonally on the demand - side. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high in the same period. It is expected that the market will be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost - end changes in the first quarter of next year [24]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 6754 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged, at 832 US dollars. The basis was 39 yuan (+ 32), and the 1 - 3 spread was 8 yuan (+ 8). The operating rate in China was 88.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the operating rate in Asia was 78.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The domestic situation remained largely unchanged, and the overseas Saudi Satorp was restarted. The PTA operating rate was 73.7%, unchanged month - on - month. The domestic situation remained largely unchanged, and the Chinese - Taiwan CAPCO was under maintenance. In November, South Korea exported 39 tons of PX to China, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5 tons. At the end of October, the inventory was 407.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 tons. The PXN was 269 US dollars (- 1), the South Korean PX - MX was 123 US dollars (+ 2), and the naphtha crack spread was 108 US dollars (- 5) [26]. - **Strategic View**: Currently, the PX operating rate remains at a high level, and there are many PTA maintenance operations downstream, with a relatively low overall operating rate center. The large - scale PTA production and the expectation of the upcoming off - season downstream suppress the PTA processing fee. The low PTA operating rate makes it difficult to continuously reduce the PX inventory. It is expected that PX will have a slight inventory build - up in December. Currently, the valuation is at a neutral level. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 28 yuan, at 4616 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 25 yuan, at 4605 yuan. The basis was - 25 yuan (+ 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan (- 4). The PTA operating rate was 73.7%, unchanged month - on - month. The domestic situation remained largely unchanged, and the Chinese - Taiwan CAPCO was under maintenance. The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. Some devices were restarted or under maintenance, and some new devices were put into production. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 2% to 85%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 3% to 69%. On December 5, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 216.9 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 0.4 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan, to 154 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 5 yuan, to

Group 1 - The company announced the acquisition of 80% equity in Ningbo Aisikai Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. for 515.9664 million yuan [2] - Following the acquisition, Ningbo Aisikai will become a subsidiary of the company and will be included in the consolidated financial statements [2] - The transaction requires approval from the company's shareholders [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate has narrowed compared to the previous period Overseas ship arrivals remain at a high level, rubber prices are fluctuating downward, and tire companies are making appropriate low - price purchases according to demand, with the overall purchasing sentiment slightly improving The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies increased last week, but the shipment pace of each tire company is slow, and the short - term production control behavior of enterprises still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,300 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,215 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 230 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is 5 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,270 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 45 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread is - 30 yuan, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,945 yuan, with a daily increase of 40 yuan The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 126,049 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,636 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 59,310 lots, with a daily increase of 3,166 lots The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26,330 lots, with a daily increase of 1,048 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10,799 lots, with a daily decrease of 504 lots The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 53,430 tons, with a daily increase of 7,400 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 60,279 tons, with a daily increase of 3,527 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, with no daily change The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, with no daily change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, with no daily change The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,300 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, with no daily change The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 635 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,810 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 34 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 224 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.14 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.37 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 1.4 Thai baht The market reference price of rubber latex of Thai raw rubber is 55 Thai baht/kg, with no daily change; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.85 Thai baht The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 125 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 23.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 43.2 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 70.2 US dollars The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, with an increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, with a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.5%, with a weekly increase of 0.17 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.92%, with a weekly increase of 1.73 percentage points The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 39.51 days, with a weekly decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 44.95 days, with a weekly decrease of 0.28 days The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.07%, with a daily increase of 0.77 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 15.86%, with a daily increase of 0.42 percentage points The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.24%, with a daily decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.24%, with a daily decrease of 0.49 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% from 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase of 1.38% As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The butadiene rubber market this week is mainly affected by news factors of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive factors in the supply - demand fundamentals, the continuous price - pressing by downstream buyers leads to weak trading performance. The inventory of sample production enterprises increases, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreases slightly. With the gradual resumption of the operation of previously - shut - down enterprises to the normal level, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased last week, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise is slow. In the short term, the production - control behavior of enterprises still exists, and the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,300 - 10,800 in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,605 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 155 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 80,546, with a week - on - week increase of 4,137; the 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 4,340 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 10,550 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 10,750 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of synthetic rubber is - 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 155 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at $61.94 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $0.55; WTI crude oil is at $58.25 per barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is $563 per ton, with a week - on - week decrease of $8.5; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $745 per ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $860 per ton; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,400 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 70.4%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 41,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 56.11%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.12 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 73.53%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.34 percentage points; the production profit of butadiene rubber is 484 yuan/ton; the social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 27,100 tons; the trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 5,230 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 310 tons; the operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.92%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic full - steel tires is 63.5%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points; the monthly output of full - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 663,000 pieces; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.51 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.95 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The resumption of production of previously - shut - down sample enterprises during the week boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. In November, the domestic output of butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points. As of December 4, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply spot resources were replenished this period. However, due to the continuous price - pressing by downstream buyers, the trading performance was weak. The inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises increased last week, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly. The temporary shutdown and maintenance of some Shandong plants will lead to a slight reduction in supply, and there is an expectation that the inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises and trading enterprises will both decrease slightly [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

证券之星消息，12月10日橡胶板块较上一交易日上涨0.42%，震安科技领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3900.5，下跌0.23%。深证成指报收于13316.42，上涨0.29%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日橡胶板块主力资金净流出1.06亿元，游资资金净流入3772.14万元，散户资金净 流入6807.83万元。橡胶板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-10 下游订单一般，刚需采购为主 2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新 的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达 58,664万条，同比增长4%。1-10月汽车轮胎出口量为685万吨，同比增长3.3%；出口金额为1158亿元，同比增长2.1%。 2025年10月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量51.08万吨，环比减 少14.27%，同比减少0.9%，2025年1-10月累计进口数量522.81万吨，累计同比增加17.27%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前三个季度，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为199.3万吨，同比降8%。其 中，标胶合计出口111.6万吨，同比降20%；烟片胶出口30.8万吨，同比增22%；乳胶出口55.6万吨，同比增10%。 1-9月，出口到中国天然橡胶合计为75.9万吨，同比增6%。其中，标胶出口到中国合计为45.9万吨，同比降19%； 烟片胶出口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the energy - chemical commodities market is weak, with most varieties showing an oscillating trend. Crude oil prices continue to decline due to increased expected global supply surplus and geopolitical factors; fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to maintain low - level oscillations [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices dropped. WTI January contract closed down $0.63 to $58.25/barrel, a 1.07% decline; Brent February contract closed down $0.55 to $61.94/barrel, a 0.88% decline; SC2601 closed at 443.4 yuan/barrel, down 5.9 yuan/barrel, a 1.31% decline. EIA raised the forecast of US oil production in 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, a record high. In 2026, the forecast was lowered by 50,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. The market is expected to be in a state of oscillation [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 2.34% at 2,418 yuan/ton; the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 closed down 1.7% at 3,014 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to factors such as replenishment of blending raw materials, increased inflow of arbitrage goods, and weak downstream demand. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is also under pressure due to sufficient arrival of arbitrage vessels and high inventories at ports. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.41% at 2,943 yuan/ton. Refinery winter storage policies are gradually being implemented. It is estimated that the winter storage price will likely fall to a relatively low level in the past five years, between 2,800 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; EG2601 closed at 3,691 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. PX futures main contract 601 closed at 6,780 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The polyester market is expected to oscillate due to factors such as weak downstream demand and cost pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 fell 80 yuan/ton to 14,985 yuan/ton, NR main contract rose 15 yuan/ton to 12,080 yuan/ton, and butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 10,450 yuan/ton. Due to improved weather in overseas producing areas, falling raw material prices, and insufficient demand support, the futures price is under pressure and expected to oscillate [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,075 yuan/ton. Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. Port inventories are expected to enter a destocking phase from mid - December this year to early January next year, but the significant destocking time may be postponed. Methanol prices are expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 6,190 - 6,450 yuan/ton. Supply will remain high, while downstream orders and starts will weaken marginally. Polyolefins are expected to gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but due to low valuations, they are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the price of the East China PVC market was adjusted downward. Supply is expected to decline slightly this week, and domestic real - estate construction will gradually slow down, leading to a decline in the start - up rate of pipes and profiles. The PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data for multiple energy - chemical varieties on December 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. [7]. 3.3 Market News - EIA stated in its monthly short - term energy outlook report that the expected global supply surplus is increasing. US oil production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high, with an upward adjustment of 20,000 barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day. In 2026, it is expected to decline by 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day [9]. - After talks in London, Ukrainian President Zelensky will share a revised peace plan with the US. The G7 and the EU are discussing replacing the price cap on Russian oil exports with a comprehensive shipping service ban [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][17][19][21][24][25][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][29][34][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [41][43][47][50][52][54][56]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as the internal - external spread of crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, the fuel oil/asphalt ratio, the BU/SC ratio, the ethylene glycol - PTA spread, the PP - LLDPE spread, and the natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][60][61][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy - Chemicals, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market [72]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won many awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [73]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, a finance master. She has won several awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [74]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC, an engineering master and an intermediate economist. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level III exam [75].

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline, with WTI January contract closing at $58.25 per barrel, down $0.63, a decrease of 1.07% [2] - Brent February contract closed at $61.94 per barrel, down $0.55, a decrease of 0.88% [2] - EIA's report indicates that U.S. oil production is expected to reach a record high, with 2025 production revised up by 20,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 380,000 barrels per day [2][17] - The expectation of oversupply in the global market is increasing, with U.S. oil production for December averaging 13.85 million barrels per day, slightly down from November's 13.86 million barrels per day [2][17] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 2.34% to 2418 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 1.7% to 3014 yuan per ton [18] - The Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to increased supply and weak downstream demand [18] - The market is expected to remain under pressure until January due to supply-driven fundamentals [18] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.41% to 2943 yuan per ton [18] - Winter storage prices are expected to drop to near five-year lows, with forecasts suggesting prices between 2800-2900 yuan per ton [18] Rubber - The main contract for Shanghai rubber fell by 80 yuan per ton to 14985 yuan per ton, while NR rose by 15 yuan per ton to 12080 yuan per ton [20] - The market is under pressure due to improved weather in overseas production areas and insufficient demand support [20] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4644 yuan per ton, down 1.07%, while PX futures closed at 6780 yuan per ton, down 1.42% [21] - The overall production and sales in Jiangsu are weak, with average sales estimated at slightly above 40% [21] - Domestic supply of ethylene glycol is expected to tighten, but long-term inventory pressure remains [21] Methanol - Methanol prices are stable, with Taicang spot prices at 2075 yuan per ton [22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend due to slow unloading pace and limited price increases in downstream polyolefins [22] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins negative for various production methods [23] - The market is transitioning to a supply-driven environment with high inventory pressure on downstream [23] PVC - PVC prices in East China have decreased, with the market facing high supply and slowing domestic demand [24] - The overall market sentiment remains bearish, with prices expected to trend towards the bottom [24] Urea - Urea prices continue to weaken, with mainstream prices in Shandong and Henan at 1690 yuan per ton and 1680 yuan per ton, respectively [25][26] - The market is characterized by high supply levels and fluctuating demand, with production rates showing regional disparities [26] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remain stable, with the market sentiment pressured by new capacity additions [27] - Demand support is limited, and the market is expected to continue facing downward pressure [27] Glass - Glass prices continue to decline, with the average price at 1097 yuan per ton [28] - The market is facing pressure from high inventory levels and declining demand [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait for signs of OPEC's export price - support willingness by observing export decline when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. The improvement in demand from reserves and compound fertilizer production, along with a seasonal decline in supply, has led to a better supply - demand situation. With export policy and cost support, it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. - For rubber, adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach. Suggest short - term buying on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. - For PVC, the industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand. Before substantial production cuts, it is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [13][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on non - integrated styrene profits as the non - integrated styrene profit is neutral - to - low and has room for upward valuation repair [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, wait for a change in the cost - side supply - oversupply pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [24]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [27]. - For PTA, with the stabilization and recovery of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term. Although the current valuation is neutral - to - low, pay attention to the rebound risk due to an increase in unexpected maintenance [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main crude oil futures on INE closed down 10.30 yuan/barrel, a 2.26% decline, at 446.10 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 58.00 yuan/ton (2.34%) to 2418.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures dropped 52.00 yuan/ton (1.70%) to 3014.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed a 1.91 - million - barrel draw in arrival inventory to 205.87 million barrels, a 2.03 - million - barrel build in gasoline commercial inventory to 87.33 million barrels, a 1.13 - million - barrel draw in diesel commercial inventory to 90.57 million barrels, and a 0.90 - million - barrel build in total refined oil commercial inventory to 177.90 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high. Currently, wait and see for signs of OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The Taicang price dropped by 7, the Lunan price remained stable, the Inner Mongolia price fell by 5, the 01 contract on the futures market dropped by 23 yuan to 2066 yuan/ton, and the basis was +7. The 1 - 5 spread was +11, reported at - 77 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract dropped by 3 yuan to 1643 yuan, the basis was +37, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 4, reported at - 68 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. The improvement in demand from reserves and compound fertilizer production, along with a seasonal decline in supply, has led to a better supply - demand situation. With export policy and cost support, it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were weakly consolidating. The potential bullish factors include the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and low inventory warrants on the exchange. The bulls are optimistic about the seasonal increase and demand expectations, while the bears are concerned about weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the EUDR postponement. The tire factory operating rate was mixed, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach. Suggest short - term buying on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped by 64 yuan to 4367 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4360 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 7 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 287 (+8) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.9% (down 0.3%), with the calcium - carbide method at 82.7% (down 1%) and the ethylene method at 73.4% (up 1.1%). The downstream operating rate was 49.1% (down 0.5%), and both factory and social inventories increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand. Before substantial production cuts, it is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [13][15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both declined. The non - integrated styrene profit was - 225.25 yuan/ton (up 15.5 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 67.29% (down 1.66%), and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 1.59 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 42.34% (up 0.10%), with mixed operating rates for PS, EPS, and ABS [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on non - integrated styrene profits as the non - integrated styrene profit is neutral - to - low and has room for upward valuation repair [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6557 yuan/ton (down 91 yuan/ton), the spot price was 6650 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the basis was 78 yuan/ton (strengthened by 41 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 84.12% (down 0.05%). The production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 44.8% (up 0.11%). The LL1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan/ton (widened by 9 yuan/ton) [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6192 yuan/ton (down 74 yuan/ton), the spot price was 6270 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan/ton), and the basis was 69 yuan/ton (strengthened by 14 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 77.97% (up 0.8%). The production enterprise, trader, and port inventories all decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 53.7% (up 0.13%). The LL - PP spread was 365 yuan/ton (narrowed by 17 yuan/ton) [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, wait for a change in the cost - side supply - oversupply pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract dropped by 62 yuan to 6780 yuan, the PX CFR price dropped by 9 dollars to 832 dollars, and the basis was 7 yuan (+26). The 1 - 3 spread was 0 yuan (+36). The Chinese and Asian operating rates both decreased slightly. Some overseas plants restarted, and some domestic PTA plants were under maintenance. The November PX exports from South Korea to China decreased year - on - year, and the inventory increased in October [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped by 50 yuan to 4644 yuan, the East China spot price dropped by 20 yuan to 4630 yuan, and the basis was - 26 yuan (+4). The 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (+12). The PTA operating rate remained unchanged, with some domestic plant changes. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the terminal operating rate decreased. The social inventory decreased in November, and the processing fees increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the stabilization and recovery of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped by 10 yuan to 3691 yuan, the East China spot price dropped by 45 yuan to 3654 yuan, and the basis was - 11 yuan (-2). The 1 - 5 spread was - 116 yuan (-8). The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, with some plant restarts and shutdowns. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the terminal operating rate decreased. The import arrival forecast was 15.5 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.6 million tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term. Although the current valuation is neutral - to - low, pay attention to the rebound risk due to an increase in unexpected maintenance [30].