新华财经北京5月12日电（郭洲洋、吴郑思）国内商品期货市场5月12日涨多跌少，其中集运欧线主力合 约收涨16.00%；苯乙烯主力合约涨超4%；BR橡胶、对二甲苯、铁矿石、PTA主力合约涨超3%；SC原 油、短纤、烧碱、高硫燃油、多晶硅、棉花、原木、NR、瓶片、天然橡胶、沪镍主力合约涨超2%。下 跌品种方面，沪金主力合约跌超2%。 宏观情绪改善商品大面积回暖 集运指数强势涨停 宏观情绪转暖为12日当天商品市场带来积极影响，国内主要商品大面积收高，尤其是集运指数（欧线） 期货收盘强势封板涨停，以16%的涨幅领涨商品市场。虽然上周五和本周一公布的现货运价指数均环比 小幅下跌，但周末贸易局势方面的积极消息带来的利多仍占据主导，这使得集运市场多头情绪高涨。与 此同时，有业内消息称，达飞轮船等航司6月初在线报价有小幅提振，也为日内集运欧线市场的活跃表 现提供助力。不过，分析机构提示，即期运价市场上，部分航司揽货压力下调降5月中下旬运价，加上 地缘局势也存在缓和可能，集运欧线基本面仍整体偏空，这或给运价反弹带来压力。 除航运市场对贸易局势最新变化反映积极以外，能源化工等商品也表现活跃。截至12日收盘，原油、燃 料油均录得超 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. It offers market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector, with an overall cautious and diversified view on the market trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: International gold prices rose 0.57% last Friday. Multiple factors influenced the market, and with the unchanged de - dollarization logic, it is recommended to hold long gold positions. The gold - silver ratio remained above 100, and it is advised to short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1] - **Silver**: After the holiday, the pattern of strong gold and weak silver remained. With the gold - silver ratio above 100, it is recommended to short silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated on Friday, and the US copper strengthened before the morning session. The short - term market risk appetite was boosted by the Sino - US negotiation, leading to stronger copper prices. The tight supply of copper ore continued [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum rose 0.54% on Friday. The supply side maintained high - load production, and the demand side saw a slight increase in the start - up rate. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [2][3] - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose 3.06% on Friday. The supply side had reduced production due to maintenance, while the demand side had an increase in operating capacity. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price fell on Friday. The supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it is recommended to wait and see as the downward driving force is limited [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell 4.46% week - on - week. The supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed in May, and it is recommended to hold short positions or wait and see [3] - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract rose. The supply is expected to be flat or slightly lower in May, and long positions can be held due to the issue of the number of registered warehouse receipts being far less than the positions [3] - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated on Friday. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and it is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short - term [4] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract of rebar was weakly oscillating. The supply - demand of steel was seasonally deteriorating, but the contradiction was not significant. It is expected that the steel futures price will oscillate widely, and it is recommended to hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions [5] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore was horizontally oscillating. The supply - demand was neutral to strong in the short - term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained. It is recommended to try short positions on the 2509 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [5] - **Coking Coal**: The main contract of coking coal was weakly oscillating. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, and it is recommended to wait and see [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday. The supply was loose in the near - term in South America and the sowing in the US was accelerating in the long - term. The US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic soybeans are short - term bearish and medium - term follow the international market [6] - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn was narrowly oscillating. The supply - demand was tightening, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to be bullish [7] - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar both rose. The raw sugar's later trend will be affected by Brazil's crushing progress and sugar - alcohol ratio. Domestic sugar is short - term bullish and long - term bearish [7] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price was flat, and the Zhengzhou cotton price rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [7] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil rose. The supply was seasonally increasing, and the demand was improving. It is in a seasonally weak stage, and attention should be paid to relevant reports and policies [7] - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract of eggs was narrowly oscillating. The supply was high and the demand was weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7] - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs was narrowly oscillating. The supply will increase, and the price is expected to decline resistantly. Attention should be paid to the enterprises' slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening trends [7] - **Apples**: The main contract of apples fell last week. The new - season production is worried due to extreme weather, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8] Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract of LLDPE fell slightly on Friday. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. It is short - term oscillating and long - term bearish [9] - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to hedge after the premium is restored [9] - **PTA**: The PTA market has short - term supply pressure relief but long - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long - short spreads and look for short - selling opportunities in the far - month contracts [9] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see with the improvement of the macro - atmosphere [9][10] - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to hedge [10] - **PP**: The main contract of PP fell slightly on Friday. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. It is short - term oscillating [10] - **MEG**: The MEG market is in a de - stocking pattern in May, and it is recommended to operate within a range [10] - **Crude Oil**: The short - term price is supported by seasonal demand, but the long - term supply surplus is significant. It is recommended to short on rallies [10][11] - **Styrene**: The main contract of styrene fell slightly on Friday. The supply and demand are expected to weaken slightly in the later period. It is short - term oscillating, and the upward movement is restricted by the import window [11] - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash fell. The supply has a reduction expectation but the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [11] Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The US is negotiating tariffs with China. The supply of the US line overflows, and the European line freight is under pressure. The overall freight rate expectation is pessimistic, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light long position in the 8 - 10 period [12]

日度报告——综合晨报 中美贸易谈判预计取得进展，美联储强调稳 定通胀重要性 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-12 宏观策略（黄金） 4 月中国 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降 2.7% 综 合 在散户交投活跃度高涨、消息面驱动的背景下，通胀压力和企 业业绩压力被市场忽视。当前市场估值水平已经修复至历史中 值附近，已经难言便宜，行情持续冲高将逐渐积累风险。 晨 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 报 美联储威廉姆斯强调稳定通胀重要 中美关税谈判达成共识，有望进行进一步谈判，对短期风险偏 好构成支持，美国股指期货涨幅近 1%。 黑色金属（动力煤） 2025 年 3 月日本煤炭进口 1237.98 万吨 中美贸易谈判取得进展 金价周五走势震荡表现偏弱，中美高层贸易谈判取得进展推动 金价周一开盘走低，关税问题和地缘军事冲突短期存在改善空 间，黄金短期仍有回调空间。 宏观策略（股指期货） 五一后，港口动力煤库存爆仓，煤价再度失守，港口 5500K 报 价约 645 元，前期 650 元支撑位跌破。关注 5 月份后火电日耗增 速以及国内煤矿开工率变化，或在此轮急跌后供 农产品（玉米） 中央气象台 5 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Yan'an aims to promote low-altitude logistics and unmanned delivery models, targeting a modern logistics industry cluster output value of over 40 billion yuan by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The city focuses on building industrial chains and clusters, establishing a mechanism involving specialized teams, cluster leaders, chain leaders, leading enterprises, and financial institutions [1] - Yan'an has developed seven major industrial clusters, including modern energy and chemical, apple and specialty food, advanced equipment manufacturing, and digital economy, with a total of 25 industrial chains [1] Group 2: Energy and Chemical Industry - Yan'an is accelerating the construction of a modern energy and chemical industry cluster, with crude oil processing expected to reach 9.825 million tons and coal production at 56.62 million tons in 2024 [1] - The city aims for energy industrial output to reach 205.8 billion yuan, accounting for 80% of the total industrial output value [1] - By the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the modern energy and chemical industry cluster output is targeted to exceed 500 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Apple and Specialty Food Industry - The apple and specialty food industry cluster is set to achieve an output value of 55.1 billion yuan, with apple production expected to surpass 5 million tons in 2024 [2] - Yan'an will leverage the Yan'an Apple Research Institute to enhance variety, quality, branding, and standardized production [2] - The target for the apple and specialty food industry cluster output is over 160 billion yuan by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] Group 4: Digital Economy - Yan'an is advancing its digital economy industry cluster, with 6,560 5G base stations established and the creation of a national gigabit city [2] - The city aims for the digital economy industry cluster output to reach over 30 billion yuan by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] Group 5: Logistics Industry - Yan'an is enhancing its logistics capabilities, with plans to develop large-scale logistics, cold chain logistics, and express delivery, targeting a modern logistics industry cluster output of over 15 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - The city has established 11 logistics parks and aims to improve the intelligence and greenness of logistics development [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and volatility of various energy and chemical options, and provides corresponding strategy recommendations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Option Classification - Energy and chemical options are mainly divided into five categories: basic chemicals, energy, polyester chemicals, polyolefin chemicals, and other chemicals [3] 3.2 Basic Chemicals Sector - **Methanol Options**: The price is under pressure and shows a weak and bearish trend. Implied volatility is above the historical average. A bearish combination strategy of call + put options is recommended [3] - **Rubber Options/Synthetic Rubber Options**: The market shows a weak consolidation and oscillation pattern under bearish pressure. Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. A bearish volatility - selling strategy is recommended [3] - **Styrene Options**: Affected by the Sino - US tariff war, downstream demand is weak. The market shows a large - fluctuation and weak trend. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high historical level. A volatility - selling option combination strategy is recommended [4] 3.3 Oil and Gas Sector - **Crude Oil Options**: OPEC+ increases supply, but exports do not increase significantly. The market shows a large - fluctuation pattern under bearish pressure. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended [4] - **Liquefied Gas Options**: The price has a short - term weak rebound under pressure. Implied volatility is above the historical average. A bearish call + put option combination strategy is recommended, and the position delta should be adjusted dynamically [4] 3.4 Polyester Chemicals Sector - **PX Options/PTA Options**: PTA load is decreasing, and inventory is decreasing year - on - year. The market shows a mild bullish trend under bearish pressure. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended [5] - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: Port inventory is increasing, and downstream inventory days are rising. The market shows a large - oscillation and short - term weak bearish trend. Implied volatility has risen rapidly to a relatively high historical level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended [5] - **Short - Fiber Options**: Polyester load is high, but short - fiber load is slightly decreasing. The market shows a rebound pattern under bearish pressure. Implied volatility remains at a relatively high average level. A volatility - selling call + put option combination strategy is recommended [5] 3.5 Polyolefin Chemicals Sector - **Polypropylene Options**: Inventory shows different trends among producers, traders, and ports. The market shows a large - oscillation and weak pattern. Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. A bearish call + put option combination strategy is recommended, and the position delta should be adjusted dynamically [6] - **Polyethylene Options**: Producer and trader inventories are increasing. The market shows a weak consolidation pattern under pressure. Implied volatility has risen rapidly to a relatively high level. A bearish directional strategy is recommended [6] - **PVC Options**: Factory and social inventories are decreasing year - on - year. The market shows a weak bearish downward trend. Implied volatility remains at a relatively low level. A bearish directional strategy is recommended [6] 3.6 Data Summary - **Option Underlying Market Data**: Includes closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various option underlying assets [8] - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover Data**: Volume, open interest, and turnover data of various options, as well as their changes [9] - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover PCR Data**: PCR data and their changes of various options [10] - **Option Maximum Open Interest at Strike Prices**: Maximum open interest at strike prices, pressure points, and support points of various options [11] - **Option Implied Volatility Data**: Implied volatility, its changes, annual average, call and put implied volatilities, and historical volatility of various options [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on May 9, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][13][21][38][45] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis values were - 149.4, - 151.4, - 153.4, - 161.4, - 166.4 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0 [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio Data**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, relevant basis and ratio data are presented from April 29 to May 8, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on May 8 was - 35.28 yuan/ton [6] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP changed. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 8 was - 160 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of different chemical products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was - 1030 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads of chemical products like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, and PP - PVC are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on May 8 was 2169 yuan/ton [9] 3. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of black metal products such as rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal changed. For example, the basis of rebar on May 8 was 138.0 yuan/ton [14] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of black metal products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of coke was 88.0 yuan/ton [14] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads of black metal products such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, and coke/coking coal are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on May 8 was 4.40 [14] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of domestic non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead changed. For example, the basis of copper on May 8 was 1220 yuan/ton [22] (2) London Market - **LME Premium/Discount, Shanghai - London Ratio, etc.**: On May 7, 2025, the LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are provided. For example, the LME premium of copper was 21.65 [28] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, and corn changed. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on May 8 was - 214 [38] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of agricultural products (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 was 18 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads of agricultural products such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal are provided. For example, the soybean No.1/corn ratio on May 8 was 1.76 [36] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From April 29 to May 8, 2025, the basis of stock index futures such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 changed. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 8 was 36.90 [46] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of stock index futures (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, next quarter - current month, etc.) are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 30.2 [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agreement between the US and the UK on tariff trade has led to a rise in market risk appetite, with the gold price falling by over 2%, the US dollar index strengthening, and the US stock index futures showing a short - term risk preference recovery. However, tariff negotiations remain complex, and the long - term impact is uncertain [2][3][14][17]. - In the commodity market, different sectors have different trends. For example, the steel price continues to decline, the inventory of some metals and energy products shows changes, and the prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy [6][24][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US and the UK reached a tariff trade agreement, reducing the US tariff on British - made cars to 10% and the beef tariff close to zero. The gold price fell by over 2%. In the short term, gold is under pressure, but the negotiation is complex, and there is still room for correction [14]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the progress of US trade negotiations, and be aware of the short - term correction risk of gold [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates. The US and the UK reached the first trade agreement since the Trump tariff war, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The US dollar index is expected to maintain a short - term rebound [15][17][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced a major agreement with the UK. The US House of Representatives Committee will start deliberating on Trump's tax - cut plan next week. The short - term market risk preference recovers, but tariff negotiations tend to be long - term, and it is not recommended to chase high [19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 158.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 158.6 billion yuan. The current one - sided market opportunities are limited, and attention can be paid to various arbitrage strategies, such as the curve - steepening strategy. The opportunity to steepen the curve has initially emerged, and subsequent changes in capital interest rates should be continuously monitored [21][22][23]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of March 31, Canada's rapeseed ending inventory was 5.8694 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. The oil market continued to fluctuate. The short - term palm oil price has reached the support level, and it is recommended to wait for the MPOB report data before operating [24]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil announced the 25/26 sanitary interval schedule. The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. The domestic soybean meal futures price is expected to fluctuate, and the spot will continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply and demand report on May 12 [25][27][28]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in April decreased by 17.65% year - on - year. In China, the sugar production in Guangxi increased, and the sales rate reached 63.96%, a 6 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The domestic sugar price has strong resistance to decline in the short term, but the external market is under pressure, and the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter of 2025. Attention should be paid to the sugar factory's inventory reduction progress [30][33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Deep - processing enterprises continued to raise prices to promote purchases, but the effect was not good. The overseas cassava starch startup rate decreased seasonally. The CS - C futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [35][36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline. It is recommended to hold the 07 long positions and pay attention to the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spread opportunities. If the import auction starts, focus on the transaction rate and price [38]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In April, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 90,000 vehicles, and the national passenger - car market retail sales were 1.791 million vehicles. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 289,700 tons week - on - week. The steel price continued to decline, and the short - term downward space is difficult to open. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see in the short term, and use the rebound hedging strategy for the spot [39][40][41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - After the holiday, the port coal inventory was full, and the coal price may decline rapidly again. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the price can hold at the 600 - yuan level [43]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - FMG's iron ore shipments in the first quarter of 2025 were 46.1 million tons. With the seasonal weakening of demand, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [44][45][46]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market was stable. During the May Day holiday, the supply of coking coal was sufficient, and the second round of coke price increase was postponed. In the short term, it will maintain a volatile trend, and in the long term, it will be weak [47][48]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In April, the total actual output of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia was 181,500 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 3.62% and a year - on - year increase of 24.34%. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band operations in the short term [48][49][50]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Several copper - related companies had acquisition and project progress. The UK - US trade agreement may increase market risk appetite and benefit the copper price. The domestic copper inventory continued to decline, supporting the price. It is recommended to conduct band operations in the short term and gradually stop profiting from the positive spread strategy [51][53][54]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Tongwei has no plan to destock through the polysilicon futures delivery. The 06 contract price rebounded after reaching a low point. It is expected that the polysilicon will continue to destock in May. Long positions and positive spreads can continue to be held [55][56][57]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The organic silicon DMC price is expected to fluctuate. The demand for industrial silicon is weak, and it is recommended to partially stop profiting from previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown received 15 million Australian dollars in support from the Western Australian government, and BYD and Tsingshan Holdings withdrew from the Chilean lithium processing plant plan. In the long term, the lithium carbonate market is in surplus, and the cost support may move down. It is not recommended to chase short positions at the current point, and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities [59][60][62]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead ingot social inventory continued to increase. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [63][64][65]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American and Lundin Mining's zinc production increased in the first quarter of 2025. The zinc social inventory decreased slightly. The short - term zinc price is supported by low inventory and strong spot, but the medium - term demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and internal - external positive spread opportunities [66][67][68]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to maintain a volatile trend [70][71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in an oscillating adjustment phase. In 2025, the overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emission allowances is relatively loose, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [74][75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased. The PTA price is expected to be oscillatingly strong or continue to rebound in the short term [76][77][78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's styrene production increased this week. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future. The cost end drags down the price, and the downstream profit expansion space is limited [79][80][81]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On May 8, the caustic soda market in Shandong had an upward transaction, and the enterprise inventory was at a low level. The caustic soda spot price rebounded, but the overall commodity market is weak, and the caustic soda market is difficult to rise significantly [82][83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable. The short - term pulp market is expected to be oscillatingly weak [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased. Although the inventory is decreasing and the basis is strengthening, the market expects negative impacts from tariffs, and the PVC performance may continue to be weak [85]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chips increased slightly in some areas. The supply pressure of bottle chips is increasing, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure [86][87][88]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of May 8, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 1.74%. The soda ash futures price continued to fall, and the market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term and pay attention to the impact of maintenance on the 09 contract [89]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased significantly this week. The glass price continued to fall, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The glass price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy variables [90][91]. 2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's EBIT in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.253 billion US dollars. Affected by the peace talks between the Houthi and the US, the European - line futures weakened. It is recommended to treat the market as a wide - range oscillation and wait and see in the short term [92].

Group 1 - Shanghai government emphasizes the need for continuous efforts to optimize the business environment, aiming to enhance confidence and respect for entrepreneurs while fostering innovation and growth for companies [1][2] - The Shanghai government has introduced 58 measures in its action plan to improve the business environment, focusing on enhancing the experience of enterprises [2][3] - A collective performance briefing for private listed companies in Shanghai showcased their resilience and vitality, reflecting the positive impact of the government's initiatives [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Development and Reform Commission has launched ten key tasks to accelerate the optimization of the business environment, addressing urgent enterprise needs and promoting collaboration among departments [2][3] - The introduction of a new financing service for small and medium-sized enterprises aims to reduce costs and improve accessibility, including initiatives like "park instant loan actions" and enhanced supply chain financing [3] - Companies like Jiuzhoutong are actively implementing new strategies, such as the "New Medical" strategy, which includes the development of an AI-assisted diagnostic platform to improve healthcare services [4][5] Group 3 - Jiuzhoutong reported a sales revenue of 19.267 billion yuan in 2024 from its brand promotion business, indicating a focus on new product introductions to drive profit growth [5] - Longqi Technology has increased its R&D investment by 23.25% year-on-year, focusing on emerging fields such as AIPC and automotive electronics, with a total R&D expenditure of 2.08 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6] - Junzheng Group is committed to strengthening its existing energy and chemical industry while pursuing green transformation and development through strategic partnerships [6][7]

Report Date and Title - The report is titled "Energy and Chemical Options Daily Report 2025 - 05 - 08" and is an options strategy morning report for energy and chemical products [2] Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and volatility of various energy and chemical options, and provides corresponding option trading strategies and suggestions for different types of energy and chemical options [3] Industry Classification and Options Included - Energy and chemical options are mainly divided into five categories: basic chemicals (methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, styrene options), energy (crude oil, liquefied gas options), polyester chemicals (paraxylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber options), polyolefin chemicals (polypropylene, PVC, polyethylene options), and other chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash, urea options) [3] Summary by Industry Group Basic Chemicals Sector - **Methanol Options**: The price in Shandong on May 6 showed different levels in different regions. The market has been in a weak and bearish trend since the high in March. The implied volatility is above the historical average. A combination strategy of long - put and short - call options is recommended to obtain time - value and directional returns, such as S_MA2506P2225, etc. [3] - **Rubber/Synthetic Rubber Options**: The price of high - cis butadiene rubber in Shandong and other regions decreased. The market is in a weak consolidation and rebound pattern under bearish pressure. The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. A bearish volatility - selling strategy is recommended to obtain directional and time - value returns, such as S_RU2509P14250, etc. [3] - **Styrene Options**: In April, downstream demand was affected by the China - US tariff war, with high inventories. The market has been in a weak and volatile pattern since the high in late February. The implied volatility remains at a relatively high historical level. A volatility - selling option combination strategy is recommended to obtain time - value and directional returns, such as S_EB2506P6700, etc. [4] Oil and Gas Sector - **Crude Oil Options**: OPEC+ increased supply in June, but exports did not increase significantly, and the US maintained production cuts. The market has shown large fluctuations under bearish pressure. The implied volatility is at a relatively high level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended to obtain time - value returns, such as S_SC2506P450 [4] - **Liquefied Gas Options**: The benchmark price increased slightly compared to the beginning of last month. The market has shown a short - term weak rebound pattern with pressure. The implied volatility is above the historical average. A strategy of selling a bearish combination of call and put options is recommended, adjusting the position delta according to market changes, and closing the position if the market fluctuates sharply, such as S_PG2506P4350 [4] Polyester Chemicals Sector - **PX/PTA Options**: The PTA load decreased in April and is expected to decline further in May. The inventory showed a mixed situation. The market has been in a mild bullish pattern under bearish pressure. The implied volatility is at a relatively high level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended to obtain time - value returns, such as S_TA2506P4450 [5] - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: As of April 28, port and downstream inventories changed. The domestic supply - demand balance is expected to strengthen in May. The market has shown a large - scale volatile pattern under short - term bearish pressure. The implied volatility has risen rapidly to a relatively high historical level. A volatility - selling strategy is recommended to obtain time - value returns, such as S_EG2506P4100 [5] - **Short - Fiber Options**: The polyester load showed different trends in different products. The market has shown a rebound pattern under bearish pressure since late February. The implied volatility is at a relatively high average level. A volatility - selling strategy of selling call and put options is recommended to obtain time - value returns, such as S_PF2506P6000 [5] Polyolefin Chemicals Sector - **Polypropylene Options**: The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports showed different changes. The market has shown a weak and volatile pattern with pressure. The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. A strategy of selling a bearish combination of call and put options is recommended, adjusting the position delta according to market changes, and closing the position if the market fluctuates sharply, such as S_PP2506P7100 [6] - **Polyethylene Options**: The inventory of PE production enterprises and traders changed. The market has shown a weak consolidation pattern with pressure. The implied volatility has risen rapidly to a relatively high level. A bearish directional strategy is recommended to obtain directional returns, such as B_L2506P7200 [6] - **PVC Options**: The factory and social inventories decreased in April. The market has shown a volatile and rebound pattern with pressure. The implied volatility is at a relatively low level. A bearish directional strategy is recommended to obtain directional returns, such as B_V2506P4900 [6] Data Tables - **Option Underlying Market Data**: It includes the closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest of various option underlying assets [8] - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover Data**: It shows the volume, open interest, and turnover of different options, as well as their changes [9] - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover PCR Data**: It presents the PCR values and their changes of different options [10] - **Option Maximum Open Interest at Strike Prices**: It shows the pressure points, support points, and maximum open interest of call and put options for different underlying assets [11] - **Option Implied Volatility Data**: It includes the implied volatility, its change, annual average, and other related data of different options [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for coordinated promotion of high-quality development and high-level protection, focusing on carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and economic growth to achieve a comprehensive green transformation in Shaanxi [1] - The importance of strict implementation of river and lake management systems to protect water resources, environment, and ecology is highlighted, along with the promotion of integrated development projects [1] - The necessity for ongoing governance and ecological monitoring in coal mining subsidence areas is stressed, aiming for a transition from artificial restoration to natural recovery [1] Group 2 - The success of sand prevention and control efforts in the region is acknowledged, with a call for integrated protection and systematic governance of natural resources [2] - The focus on balancing ecological protection with economic development through the promotion of economic forests and under-forest economies is emphasized [2] - The commitment to advancing the energy revolution and optimizing the production layout in Shaanxi is reiterated, with a focus on high-end, diversified, and low-carbon development in the energy and chemical industries [2]