Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Analysis Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to solve the systematic rotation problem of styles by conducting a bottom-up quantitative market trend analysis. It identifies the dominant asset characteristics that represent the future market's mainstream style through a comprehensive comparison of assets[1][5] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model considers five style stages based on the asset's industry lifecycle: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[1][5] - The priority for asset comparison is based on the sequence: growth (g) > return on equity (ROE) > dividend (D)[1][5] - The model uses the spread of asset advantage differences to capture the trend changes of top assets, similar to factor timing[20] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has shown good explanatory power for past A-share style rotations, achieving an annualized return of 27.25% since 2009[15] Model Backtesting Results - **Quantitative Market Trend Analysis Framework**: - 2009: Asset Comparison Strategy 133%, Wind All A 82%, Excess Return 51%[18] - 2010: Asset Comparison Strategy 7%, Wind All A -7%, Excess Return 14%[18] - 2011: Asset Comparison Strategy -33%, Wind All A -22%, Excess Return -11%[18] - 2012: Asset Comparison Strategy 5%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 0%[18] - 2013: Asset Comparison Strategy 41%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 36%[18] - 2014: Asset Comparison Strategy 48%, Wind All A 52%, Excess Return -4%[18] - 2015: Asset Comparison Strategy 55%, Wind All A 38%, Excess Return 16%[18] - 2016: Asset Comparison Strategy -14%, Wind All A -13%, Excess Return -1%[18] - 2017: Asset Comparison Strategy 32%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 27%[18] - 2018: Asset Comparison Strategy -21%, Wind All A -28%, Excess Return 7%[18] - 2019: Asset Comparison Strategy 41%, Wind All A 33%, Excess Return 8%[18] - 2020: Asset Comparison Strategy 69%, Wind All A 26%, Excess Return 44%[18] - 2021: Asset Comparison Strategy 47%, Wind All A 9%, Excess Return 38%[18] - 2022: Asset Comparison Strategy 44%, Wind All A -19%, Excess Return 62%[18] - 2023: Asset Comparison Strategy 5%, Wind All A -5%, Excess Return 10%[18] - 2024: Asset Comparison Strategy 62%, Wind All A 10%, Excess Return 52%[18] - 2025 (Aug): Asset Comparison Strategy 27%, Wind All A 23%, Excess Return 4%[18] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on the highest analyst forecasted growth rates, regardless of the cycle stage[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest expected growth rates as forecasted by analysts[6] - The spread of expected growth advantage differences (Δgf) is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns since 2019, with notable performance in 2014-2015[34] Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest actual growth rates, particularly during transition and growth periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest actual growth rates (Δg)[6] - The spread of actual growth advantage differences (Δg) is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in growth-dominant environments[36] Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with high ROE and low valuation under the PB-ROE framework, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with high ROE and low PB-ROE residuals[6] - The spread of ROE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns from 2016 to 2020, with weaker performance since 2021[39] Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest DP+ROE scores, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest DP+ROE scores[6] - The spread of DP+ROE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[42] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP+BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest DP+BP scores, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest DP+BP scores[6] - The spread of DP+BP advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[45] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[46] Factor Name: Bankruptcy Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores, concentrated in stagnation and recession periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores[6] - The spread of PB+SIZE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[48] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[49] Factor Backtesting Results - **Expected Growth (gf)**: - Cable: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Zhongtian Technology, average market cap 21.791 billion yuan, 3-month performance 49.62%[34] - Cement: 19 stocks, largest weight stock Conch Cement, average market cap 17.929 billion yuan, 3-month performance 12.71%[34] - Glass Fiber: 6 stocks, largest weight stock China Jushi, average market cap 26.657 billion yuan, 3-month performance 63.67%[34] - Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials: 17 stocks, largest weight stock Northern Rare Earth, average market cap 31.018 billion yuan, 3-month performance 98.77%[34] - White Goods III: 10 stocks, largest weight stock Midea Group, average market cap 113.675 billion yuan, 3-month performance -1.21%[34] - **Actual Growth (g)**: - Integrated Circuits: 104 stocks, largest weight stock Cambricon-U, average market cap 45.058 billion yuan, 3-month performance 42.93%[37] - PCB: 38 stocks, largest weight stock Shenghong Technology, average market cap 27.163 billion yuan, 3-month performance 112.10%[37] - Tungsten: 4 stocks, largest weight stock Xiamen Tungsten, average market cap 30.523 billion yuan, 3-month performance 69.26%[37] - Lithium Battery Equipment: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Lead Intelligent, average market cap 11.731 billion yuan, 3-month performance 60.15%[37] - Weapons and Equipment III: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Great Wall Military Industry, average market cap 21.307 billion yuan, 3-month performance 80.22%[37] - **Profitability (ROE)**: - Beer: 7 stocks, largest weight stock Tsingtao Brewery, average market cap 26.758 billion yuan, 3-month performance -3.94%[39] - Liquor: 20 stocks, largest weight stock Kweichow Moutai, average market cap 162.722 billion yuan, 3-month performance 4.12%[39] - Non-dairy Beverages: 7 stocks, largest weight stock Eastroc Beverage, average market cap 32.754 billion yuan, 3-month performance -4.45%[39] - Network Connection and Tower Setup: 19 stocks, largest weight stock Zhongji Xuchuang, average market cap 64.299 billion yuan, 3-month performance 202.29%[39] - Building Decoration III: 28 stocks, largest weight stock Gold Mantis, average market cap 3.436 billion yuan, 3-month performance 4.42%[39] - **Quality Dividend (DP+ROE)**: - Automotive Motor Control: 15

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the exceptional performance and investment philosophy of Du Meng, a prominent fund manager at Morgan Fund, who has achieved significant returns through a focus on growth stocks and a long-term investment strategy [2][27]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - Du Meng's management of the Morgan Emerging Power Mixed A fund has resulted in a cumulative return of 513.84% since his tenure began, ranking it 6th among 425 similar products, placing it in the top 1.41% [2][7]. - The fund has shown impressive annual returns, with a 61.57% increase this year, 93.24% over the past year, and 691.24% since its inception [6][7]. - Du Meng's other fund, Morgan Vision Two-Year Holding Period Mixed Fund, has also performed well, achieving a 65.93% return this year and 98.95% over the past year [15][16]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy and Strategy - Du Meng's investment approach combines deep industry analysis, individual stock research, and flexible operations, focusing on emerging industries with sustainable growth potential [14][26]. - His ability to identify and invest in key sectors such as high-end manufacturing, new energy, and artificial intelligence has been crucial to his success [8][11]. - The investment strategy has evolved to include a balance of growth and value stocks, adapting to market conditions while maintaining a focus on long-term returns [25][26]. Group 3: Team and Institutional Support - The stability and experience of Du Meng's investment team, with an average tenure of over 7 years and an 80% internal promotion rate, provide a solid foundation for his investment strategies [5][26]. - Morgan Fund, under Du Meng's leadership, has grown its assets significantly, managing approximately 187.8 billion yuan, reflecting the trust and recognition from institutional investors [26]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - Du Meng's investment decisions align with national strategic directions, particularly in technology and innovation, benefiting from policy support for emerging industries [8][14]. - The ongoing transformation of the Chinese economy presents continued opportunities for growth, with Du Meng committed to leveraging these trends for future investment success [26].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: China PCB Sector - **Key Focus**: AI demand and its impact on PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) sectors Core Insights 1. **AI Demand**: AI remains the most significant driver of demand in the PCB sector, particularly for High Density Interconnect (HDI) and High Layer Count (HLC) PCBs, with strong order visibility extending into Q3 and Q425 [2][3] 2. **Midplane Adoption**: Discussions indicate a potential shift towards midplane designs replacing copper cables in future AI systems, with clearer visibility expected by Q425 [2] 3. **Material Preferences**: M9-grade high-speed CCL is anticipated for midplane PCBs, while interest in PTFE is declining due to its thermal expansion issues and processing challenges [2] 4. **Capacity Expansion**: Chinese PCB manufacturers are experiencing extended lead times for critical equipment due to aggressive capacity expansions, which are reportedly on schedule as orders were placed in advance [2] Company-Specific Insights Shennan Circuit 1. **Growth Drivers**: AI has significantly contributed to Shennan's growth in 1H25, particularly in data and wire communication sectors [3] 2. **Capacity Management**: Shennan is cautious about capacity expansion, having resolved bottlenecks in drilling and electroplating, with new capacity expected to come online in late 2026 [3] 3. **Order Visibility**: Demand for BT substrates from domestic memory customers is strong, but Shennan is conservative about the sustainability of BT orders into 2026 due to potential double bookings [3] Dongshan 1. **Earnings Pressure**: Dongshan anticipates pressure on earnings for 2025 due to limited growth in smartphone FPC content and losses from a disposal of a loss-making LED business [4] 2. **Consolidation Benefits**: The consolidation of Source Photonics and GMD is expected to enhance profitability through debt restructuring and operational synergies, with benefits starting in 2026 [4] Victory Giant (VGT) 1. **Capacity Expansion**: VGT is aggressively expanding capacity with plans for 15k sqm/month HDI and 50k sqm/month HLC in Huizhou and Thailand, driven by demand from a major North American AI customer [5] 2. **Production Utilization**: Current capacity is fully allocated, but production utilization may be slightly affected as the company transitions to next-gen products [5] Risks and Considerations 1. **Global AI Deployment**: Risks include slower-than-expected AI deployment both globally and in China, which could impact demand [7] 2. **CAPEX Plans**: Weaker-than-expected capital expenditure plans from hyperscalers for IDCs and servers could pose risks to the PCB sector [7] 3. **Tariffs and Regulations**: Higher-than-expected tariffs and tightening environmental regulations in China could adversely affect demand for consumer electronics and automobiles [7] Valuation and Risk Statements - **Shennan Circuit**: Valuation based on sum-of-the-parts method; risks include slower server demand and pricing pressures [8] - **Dongshan**: Valuation based on target PE multiple; risks include ASP cuts and iPhone procurement challenges [8] Conclusion The China PCB sector is poised for growth driven by AI demand, with specific companies like Shennan and Dongshan navigating challenges and opportunities through strategic capacity management and consolidation efforts. However, external risks related to global deployment of AI and regulatory changes remain critical factors to monitor.

Group 1: Market Performance - Over 440 stocks reached historical highs since August, with more than 130 stocks achieving new highs in just two trading days [3] - Among the stocks that reached new highs, 21 are large-cap stocks with market values exceeding 100 billion [3] - Notable stocks include Shenghong Technology, which saw a price increase of 3.34% on September 2, reaching a peak of 293.64 CNY per share, marking a year-to-date increase of 545.28% [3] Group 2: Company Financials - Shenghong Technology reported a net profit of 2.143 billion CNY for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 366.89% [3] - Baijie Shenzhou-U, a leading innovative drug company, achieved a net profit of 450 million CNY in the first half of the year, significantly reversing losses [4] - Huagong Technology, a leader in laser equipment, reported a net profit of 911 million CNY, up 44.87% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Industry Trends - The PCB industry is experiencing significant growth driven by advancements in AI computing technology and data center upgrades, with Shenghong Technology capitalizing on these trends [3] - The laser equipment sector is benefiting from increased demand in the new energy vehicle market and exports, leading to a rise in market share for companies like Huagong Technology [5] - The excavator market shows potential for growth, with domestic sales in July exceeding expectations and a significant increase in market share for companies like LiuGong [6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - A total of 15 stocks with strong performance but relatively low valuations were identified, with 10 showing potential upside of over 20% based on target prices [6] - LiuGong has a rolling P/E ratio of 14.06, the lowest among the identified stocks, with a net profit of 1.23 billion CNY, up 25.05% year-on-year [5] - Financing data indicates that nine stocks, including Luxshare Precision and China Power, saw net inflows exceeding 100 million CNY since August [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the technology sector is experiencing a significant downturn, particularly in AI hardware stocks such as semiconductors, CPO, and PCB, while innovative drug concept stocks show mixed performance [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index fell by 2.1%, the Sci-Tech Innovation Composite Index decreased by 2.7%, and the Sci-Tech 100 Index dropped by 3.3% [1] - Zhongtai Securities suggests that the mid-term logic for the technology sector remains solid, and any adjustments in September should be viewed as a strategic opportunity for mid-term investment in technology [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index, which consists of 50 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, with over 60% in semiconductors and more than 75% in semiconductor, medical devices, and software development sectors [3] - The Sci-Tech 100 ETF tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index, focusing on 100 medium-sized stocks, with over 80% in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and electrical equipment, and a significant portion in the electronics and pharmaceuticals sectors [3] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Composite Index ETF covers all market securities on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, focusing on core industries such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, new energy, and innovative drugs, encompassing all 17 primary industries on the board [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in its financial performance, with a 90.31 billion yuan revenue in the first half of 2025, representing an 86% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 21.43 billion yuan, up 366.89% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is capitalizing on the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence, with a strong performance in the HDI market, which is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% from 2024 to 2029, while AI-related HDI is projected to grow at a CAGR of 19.1% [2][3] - The company has established a leading position in the high-layer PCB manufacturing sector, with capabilities exceeding 100 layers and significant advancements in HDI technology, which are crucial for AI computing and data center applications [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 90.31 billion yuan, with a net profit of 21.43 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 366.89% [1] - For Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 47.19 billion yuan, a 91.51% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 12.22 billion yuan, reflecting a 390.14% year-on-year growth [1][2] - The company plans to increase its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 203.48 billion yuan, 272.82 billion yuan, and 326.56 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 89.6%, 34.1%, and 19.7% [8][10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "China + N" global layout strategy to enhance its supply delivery capabilities, establishing production lines in Thailand and Vietnam to meet overseas demand for high-layer PCBs and advanced HDI [4] - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, which grew by 78.46% year-on-year, reinforcing its competitive edge in the industry [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a core supplier of global visual equipment, focusing on machine vision technology and artificial intelligence to drive industrial transformation. It has established itself in various sectors including consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, PCB, and semiconductors. The Chinese machine vision market is projected to reach 39.54 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.2% from 2025 to 2027 [14][22]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is forecasted to be 1.609 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of -2.4%. For 2025, revenue is expected to increase to 1.788 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 11.1%. By 2027, revenue is projected to reach 2.499 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.1% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 125 million yuan in 2024, with a significant decline of 42.1%. However, it is projected to recover to 153 million yuan in 2025, growing by 22.3%, and further increase to 254 million yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 23.1% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.65 yuan in 2024, -0.07 yuan in 2025, and expected to rise to 1.31 yuan by 2027 [2]. Business Segments Overview - The company has diversified its business into several segments: 1. **Visual Measurement Equipment**: Expected revenue growth of 10%, 20%, and 15% from 2025 to 2027, driven by stable contributions from consumer electronics and battery sectors [8]. 2. **Visual Inspection Equipment**: Anticipated revenue decline of 10% in 2025, followed by recovery with growth rates of 20% and 15% in subsequent years, as new products are launched [8]. 3. **Visual Process Equipment**: Revenue growth is expected to be robust at 30%, 20%, and 10% from 2025 to 2027, particularly in the PCB sector [8]. 4. **Intelligent Driving Solutions**: This segment is projected to see significant growth, with revenue increases of 50% for both 2025 and 2026, and 20% in 2027, fueled by high demand in autonomous vehicles and logistics [8]. Market Position and Strategic Partnerships - The company has become a partner of NVIDIA's Jetson Thor platform, which is expected to enhance the value of its humanoid robot controllers significantly. The partnership is anticipated to lead to increased orders in humanoid robotics and improvements in product performance [7][54]. - The company has established a strong foothold in the intelligent driving sector, collaborating with major players in the industry and developing a comprehensive product line that includes domain controllers and AI edge computing platforms [31][34]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 75, 56, and 45 for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. This is below the average PE ratios of comparable companies, which are 96, 68, and 51 for the same periods [7].

Group 1: Industry Leaders Achieving New Highs - Multiple industry leaders have seen their stock prices reach new highs, with Shenghong Technology (300476) opening up 3.34% and hitting a peak of 293.64 CNY per share, marking a maximum increase of over 600% from its year-low [1] - Shenghong Technology reported a net profit of 2.143 billion CNY for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 366.89%, capitalizing on AI computing power technology and data center upgrades [1] - Other industry leaders such as Ruijie Networks, Rockchip, Dongyangguang, Sanmei Co., Juhua Co., and BeiGene-U also reached historical highs following their semi-annual report disclosures [1] Group 2: Performance of Laser Equipment Leader - Laser equipment leader Huagong Technology saw its stock hit the daily limit and rise over 6% to reach a new historical high, with a net profit of 911 million CNY for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.87% [2] - The company benefited from the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles and export growth, leading to an increase in market share and sales of PTC heating components and sensors [2] Group 3: Underperforming Yet Promising Stocks - A selection of high-performing stocks with low P/E ratios has been identified, with 13 stocks meeting criteria such as underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and having a rolling P/E ratio below 30 [3] - China XD Electric, which saw a 12.94% decline this year, reported a net profit of 598 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 30.08% [3] - Four stocks have rolling P/E ratios below 20, including Liugong, Zoomlion, Deyang Co., and Longjing Environmental Protection, with Liugong having the lowest at 14.22 [3] Group 4: Market Insights and Future Potential - The excavator market showed better-than-expected domestic sales in July, with room for growth as sales only reached 35% of the 2021 levels [4] - Among the 13 identified stocks, 10 have an upside potential exceeding 20%, with Berteli leading at 52.28% [4] - Berteli is expected to improve its profitability with new production capacities coming online in 2025 [4] Group 5: Financing Trends - Data shows that eight stocks have seen net financing purchases exceeding 100 million CNY since August, with Luxshare Precision leading at 651 million CNY [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of stock price growth exceeding 15% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 7.095 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.93%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders slightly decreased by 1.06% to 650 million yuan [1]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity with a 5 billion yuan investment plan for its Zhuhai Jinwan base, focusing on high-end products in AI computing, high-speed network communication, and automotive applications [3]. - The company is leveraging its first-mover advantage in automotive electronics to explore new growth areas such as humanoid robots and low-altitude aircraft [2]. Financial Summary - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.552 billion yuan, 1.914 billion yuan, and 2.398 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 37, 30, and 24 [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 12.659 billion yuan in 2024 to 21.195 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.67% [4]. - The company's net profit margin is projected to improve from 9.2% in 2024 to 11.3% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [12].

Group 1: Company Insights - Joyful Home is focusing on high-quality canned products, introducing new portable and diverse packaging options, and has seen over a 30% year-on-year increase in coconut raw material procurement prices due to rising demand and quality requirements [1] - Jingwang Electronics achieved a revenue of 7.095 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.93%, while net profit decreased by 1.06% to 650 million yuan [2] - Lens Technology has partnered with leading companies in the 3D printing industry for joint research and development, with some products expected to be mass-produced next year [3] - Yingtan Technology's smart vending control system product line saw a significant year-on-year growth of 442.94%, primarily due to the large-scale delivery of smart opening cabinet products [4] - Antu Bio's chemical luminescence product prices have decreased due to centralized procurement and DRG policy implementation, leading to reduced testing volumes, although the installed capacity is expected to reach a new high in 2024 [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Developments - The demand for high-end PCB production is increasing, with Jingwang Electronics investing 5 billion yuan in the Zhuhai Jinwan base for capacity expansion [2] - The smart grid product line of Yingtan Technology is expected to improve in the second half of the year after a decline in the first half due to slowed bidding processes [4] - Antu Bio anticipates that the impact of policies will clear by the end of 2024 or 2025, leading to stable growth in the luminescence business over the next 3-5 years [5]