（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 2月24日，燕京啤酒在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年2月13日，公司股东 总户数为43538户。 ...

Market Overview - On the first trading day after the resumption of Northbound trading, Hong Kong's three major indices collectively declined, with the Hang Seng Index falling below the 27,000 mark, closing down 1.82% or 491.59 points at 26,590.32 points, with a total turnover of HKD 250.99 billion [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 2.06% to 9,007.86 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.13% to 5,270.70 points [1] Sector Performance - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with valuation pressure easing after recent pullbacks, and potential for rebound driven by accelerated AI model updates and applications [1] - The energy and precious metals sectors are expected to rise amid heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and adjustments in U.S. tariff policies [1] - The consumer sector, currently undervalued, is anticipated to have upward potential as consumption policies are strengthened [1] Blue-Chip Stocks - WH Group (00288) led blue-chip gains, rising 4.42% to HKD 10.39, contributing 5.87 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip performers included Henderson Land (00012) up 2.08% and China Resources Beer (00291) up 2.02% [2] - China Biologic Products (01177) fell 6.58%, negatively impacting the index by 7.48 points [2] Hot Sectors - Major tech stocks faced pressure, with Tencent down over 3% and Alibaba down over 2% [3] - Storage concepts saw significant gains, with Zhaoyi Innovation (03986) up 11.91% and Longsys Technology (06809) up 4.92% [3] - Oil and gas stocks rose amid concerns over escalating tensions in Iran, with Shandong Molong (00568) up 11.41% [4] AI and Technology - The AI sector continues to show promise, with significant growth in token usage, particularly in Chinese models, which account for 61% of the total token volume [5] - The market anticipates ongoing rapid growth in AI applications and commercial viability [5] Film Sector - The film sector faced challenges, with the 2026 Spring Festival box office down approximately 40% year-on-year, indicating a need for improved content quality [6] - Major film stocks like Maoyan Entertainment (01896) and Huayi Brothers (01003) saw declines of 8.18% and 5.26%, respectively [6] Notable Stock Movements - Kwan Hung Holdings (01888) surged 12.37% following a profit forecast indicating a 165% increase in net profit for the fiscal year ending December 2025 [7] - Weichai Power (02338) rose 7.29% after a report highlighted its emergency generator's use in a major data center [8] - China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) reached a new high, up 5.37%, following a significant shipbuilding contract announcement [9] - Standard Chartered (02888) saw a 3.07% increase after reporting a 6% rise in operating income for the fiscal year 2025 [10] - China Duty Free Group (01880) faced a 10.51% drop due to losing some operating rights at major airports [11]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC (01876) is undergoing a deep adjustment period in the Chinese market, facing short-term performance pressure due to reform pains and external shocks, but positive signals are emerging from channel transformation, with preliminary improvements in market share observed in Q4 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the full year 2025, the company's revenue and EBITDA were $5.76 billion and $1.59 billion, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8%; Q4 revenue and EBITDA were $1.07 billion and $170 million, down 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year [2] - The Chinese market significantly dragged down performance, with Q4 revenue and EBITDA declining by 11.4% and 42.3% year-on-year, and full-year revenue and EBITDA down 11.3% and 15.7% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the full year was $489 million, a decrease of 32.1% year-on-year, while cash flow remained robust with a dividend payout ratio increased to 153% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategy - The industry in China is experiencing stable volume but declining prices, with Budweiser APAC actively transforming its channels; the decline in sales volume in Q4 narrowed from 11% in Q3 to 3.9% [3] - The company is focusing on high-end product positioning and expanding into new channels like instant retail and O2O, with expectations for ASP improvement in 2026 supported by various factors including policy changes and increased consumer confidence [3] - Management's outlook for 2026 includes organic growth, inorganic expansion, and shareholder returns, with a focus on high-end channels in China and maintaining a strong position in the Korean market [3] Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - The estimated EPS for the company for 2026-2028 is projected at $0.04, $0.05, and $0.05, respectively, with the valuation multiple for 2026 adjusted from 20x PE to 25x PE, maintaining a target price of HKD 7.9 [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC is undergoing a deep adjustment period in the Chinese market, facing short-term performance pressure due to reform pains and external shocks, but positive signals are emerging from channel transformation, with preliminary improvements in Q4 market share [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the full year 2025, revenue and EBITDA were $5.76 billion and $1.59 billion, down 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year; Q4 revenue and EBITDA were $1.07 billion and $170 million, down 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year [2] - The Chinese market significantly dragged down performance, with Q4 revenue and EBITDA declining 11.4% and 42.3% year-on-year, and full-year revenue and EBITDA down 11.3% and 15.7% year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the full year was $489 million, a decrease of 32.1% year-on-year, while cash flow remained robust with a dividend payout ratio increasing to 153% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industry saw stable volume but declining prices in Q4 2025, with leading companies maintaining stable operations; however, the average selling price (ASP) has been under pressure, hindering premiumization [3] - Budweiser APAC, as a leader in high-end beer, is increasing investments in emerging channels like instant retail and O2O, with early signs of improvement as the decline in sales volume narrowed from 11% in Q3 to 3.9% in Q4 [3] - The company is expected to benefit from multiple factors supporting ASP improvement in 2026, including effective policies to boost consumer confidence and demand, alongside the release of benefits from high-end positioning and channel transformation [3] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The management has outlined three core outlooks for 2026: organic growth, inorganic expansion, and shareholder returns, with a focus on high-end home channels and O2O expansion in China [4] - The company plans to explore M&A and collaboration opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region, supported by strong cash flow for external growth [4] - A high dividend policy continues, with a dividend yield of 5.6% providing a solid safety net for the stock price; the depreciation of the US dollar is also expected to positively impact financial statements [4]

Macro Insights - During the Spring Festival, significant overseas events occurred, including heightened tensions in the Middle East leading to a sharp increase in international oil prices, a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court declaring Trump's IEEPA tariffs illegal, and U.S. inflation data exceeding expectations, which complicates short-term market rate cut predictions [1] - In January, U.S. CPI growth rate unexpectedly declined due to falling food and gasoline prices, with expectations that tariff impacts on inflation are nearing their peak, potentially easing pressure on rate cuts [2] - Financial data at the start of the year showed stable performance, with direct financing growth driven by fiscal measures offsetting weak on-balance-sheet credit growth, and social financing growth remaining above 8% year-on-year [3] Bond Market Insights - The convertible bond market is expected to experience short-term trading opportunities due to calendar effects, but investors should remain cautious of high valuation risks in the medium term [4] - There is a need to address "involution" in competition to prevent unreasonable credit growth, with a preference for stable and realistic credit data over inflated growth figures [5] - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs showed an overall price increase, with the China REITs index closing at 804.77, reflecting a weekly return of 0.32% [6] Banking Sector Insights - In January, loan growth was lower than expected, with corporate loans being the main contributor, while household loan demand may weaken in February due to seasonal factors [10] - Commercial banks reported a net profit of 2.38 trillion yuan in 2025, with a net interest margin growth of 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a gradual improvement in profitability [11] Strategic Metals Insights - The current environment of "de-globalization, stockpiling, and weakening dollar credit" is reminiscent of the 1970s, leading to a positive outlook on the valuation of strategic metals [12] Company-Specific Insights - Huahong Semiconductor's Q4 2025 performance met expectations, with a projected net profit growth of 158% in 2026, supported by high utilization rates and price stability [13] - Lenovo Group's FY26 Q3 revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, with strategic restructuring expected to help its ISG business return to profitability [14] - Budweiser APAC's Q4 2025 revenue was $1.073 billion, with a focus on regaining market share in China, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2026-2027 [15]

（作者｜周琦 编辑｜张广凯） 北京老牌啤酒，正上演一场复兴大戏。 1月底，燕京啤酒发布2025年业绩预告，预计全年归母净利润为15.84亿元至17.42亿元，同比增长50%至65%，扣非净 利润同比增长40%至50%。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司 | 盈利: 158,352万元-174,187万元 | 盈利:105,567.85万元 | | 股东的净利润 | 比上年同期增长:50.00%-65.00% | | | 扣除非经常性损 | 盈利:145,689万元-156,096万元 | 盈利:104,063.74万元 | | 益后的净利润 | 比上年同期增长:40.00%-50.00% | | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利:0.5618元/股-0.6180元/股 | 盈利:0.3745元/股 | 公司公告 在此之前，燕京啤酒经历了至暗时刻。 2013-2017年，公司营收连续四年下滑，净利润一度跌至谷底，2017年扣非后实际亏损了3716万元。 但到2025年，燕京啤酒净利润由2021年的2.28亿元飙升超过15亿元，增长近7倍。 这家45岁 ...

Core Insights - Molson Coors Beverage reported a significant decline in its Q3 2025 performance, with sales dropping and substantial operating and net losses, raising concerns in the market and industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's quarterly sales amounted to $3.484 billion, a decrease of approximately 3.3% from $3.603 billion in the same period last year [2]. - Net sales fell from $3.043 billion to $2.974 billion, reflecting a decline of about 2.3% [2]. - Operating loss reached $3.431 billion, contrasting sharply with an operating profit of $0.451 billion in the previous year [2]. - The net loss attributable to shareholders was $2.928 billion, compared to a net profit of $0.2 billion in the same period last year, highlighting a severe profitability crisis [2]. Challenges Faced - Increased market competition has led to a loss of market share, with emerging brands attracting younger consumers through innovative marketing and product positioning [3]. - Changing consumer preferences towards healthier and more diverse beer options have not been adequately addressed by the company, resulting in customer attrition [4]. - Rising costs of raw materials, energy, and logistics have pressured the company's cost control efforts, limiting its ability to pass on costs to consumers and compressing profit margins [5]. - The uncertain global macroeconomic environment, characterized by slowing economic growth and inflation, has negatively impacted consumer purchasing power and confidence, further affecting sales [6]. Industry Impact - The decline in Molson Coors' performance may provide expansion opportunities for competitors, potentially accelerating industry reshuffling [7]. - The company's challenges could prompt other industry players to focus more on product innovation, cost management, and market expansion, driving the industry towards healthier and more sustainable practices [7]. Strategic Recommendations - The company should enhance its research and development efforts to accelerate product innovation, introducing healthier and personalized options such as low-alcohol and non-alcoholic beers [9]. - Optimizing market strategies and expanding sales channels, including partnerships with e-commerce and social media platforms, could help increase brand influence and market share [10]. - Strengthening cost control measures and improving operational efficiency through supply chain management and process optimization are essential for reducing production costs [11]. - Investing in brand building and enhancing brand image through advertising and community engagement can foster consumer loyalty and recognition [12].

Core Insights - Kirin Holdings reported strong financial performance for the first nine months of fiscal year 2025, with revenue of 1,756.12 billion yen (approximately 11.3 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and operating profit of 170.54 billion yen, up 5.2%. Notably, net profit attributable to the parent company surged by 29.7% to 102.83 billion yen, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Business Growth Drivers - The revenue growth of Kirin Holdings is primarily driven by two key pillars: the beer business and the health science business [2] - In the beer segment, Kirin, as the leader in the Japanese beer market, has strengthened its position through product premiumization and channel optimization, with flagship brand "Ichiban Shibori" seeing steady sales growth domestically and a 6% increase in international revenue, particularly in Southeast Asia [2] - The health science segment, focusing on functional beverages and probiotics, has become a new growth driver, with the subsidiary FANCL achieving a 12% revenue increase, contributing over 20% to the group's profits [2] Group 2: Cost Control and Profitability - Despite ongoing pressure from raw material costs and logistics expenses, Kirin has effectively mitigated these challenges through supply chain optimization and digital transformation, resulting in a 0.8 percentage point decrease in sales expense ratio and a 0.5 percentage point decrease in management expense ratio [3] - The overall gross margin improved to 38.7% from 37.2% in the previous year, aided by an increase in the proportion of high-margin health products [3] - The depreciation of the yen has also positively impacted export business, further enhancing overseas profits [3] Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions and Globalization - Kirin's globalization strategy has deepened with two significant acquisitions during the reporting period: a 30% stake in the Vietnamese craft beer brand "Bia Saigon" to strengthen its position in the Southeast Asian beer market, and an increase to 51% ownership in the Australian probiotic research company "BioGaia" to solidify its leadership in microbiome health technology [4] - The management has indicated a focus on the "Asian Growth Corridor" strategy, aiming to leverage Japan as a research center and rapidly penetrate emerging markets like Southeast Asia and India through acquisitions and localized production, with health science revenue expected to reach 40% by 2030 [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Despite strong performance, Kirin faces challenges such as the long-term decline of the domestic beer market, global supply chain volatility, and intensified competition in the health science sector [5] - The company plans to address these challenges through product innovation, including increased development of non-alcoholic beers and functional beverages, enhancing its sustainable brand image with carbon-neutral beer production lines, and collaborating with top research institutions to deepen studies in microbiome and precision nutrition [5] Conclusion - Kirin Holdings' performance in the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025 validates the effectiveness of its "beer + health" dual-drive strategy, showcasing the resilience of traditional consumer giants amid transformation waves. With ongoing globalization and premiumization efforts, the century-old company is poised to create a second growth curve, demonstrating long-term value potential for global investors [6]

Group 1 - The company Budweiser APAC (01876) announced the grant of up to approximately 11.6043 million shares of company restricted stock to several eligible employees under its share-based remuneration plan adopted on September 9, 2019, and revised on May 8, 2023 [1] - Additionally, the company will grant up to approximately 10.5613 million restricted stock units to several grantees [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has slightly reduced the target price for Budweiser APAC (01876) from HKD 8.75 to HKD 8.6 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, citing lower-than-expected revenue and normalized EBITDA forecasts for 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC's revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025 are projected to decline by 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year, reaching USD 5.764 billion and USD 1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations [1] - For Q4 2025, revenue and normalized EBITDA are expected to decrease by 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year, amounting to USD 1.073 billion and USD 167 million, respectively [1] - The company's normalized EBITDA margin contracted by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in the ratio of selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) [1] Group 2: Net Profit and Non-Recurring Items - The net profit for the period was USD 489 million, impacted by a non-recurring item related to a customs audit claim and tax issues in South Korea, which is considered a one-time factor [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2026 to 2028 have been increased by 2% to 3%, reflecting expectations of RMB appreciation; however, a slowdown in sales recovery in the Chinese market is anticipated, potentially delaying until the second half of 2026 [1] - EBITDA forecasts for 2026 to 2028 have been reduced by 6% to 7% to account for operational deleveraging and increased business investments, leading to a decrease in EBITDA margin by 2.5 to 2.8 percentage points [1]