Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Analysis Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to solve the systematic rotation problem of styles by conducting a bottom-up quantitative market trend analysis. It identifies the dominant asset characteristics that represent the future market's mainstream style through a comprehensive comparison of assets[1][5] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model considers five style stages based on the asset's industry lifecycle: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[1][5] - The priority for asset comparison is based on the sequence: growth (g) > return on equity (ROE) > dividend (D)[1][5] - The model uses the spread of asset advantage differences to capture the trend changes of top assets, similar to factor timing[20] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has shown good explanatory power for past A-share style rotations, achieving an annualized return of 27.25% since 2009[15] Model Backtesting Results - **Quantitative Market Trend Analysis Framework**: - 2009: Asset Comparison Strategy 133%, Wind All A 82%, Excess Return 51%[18] - 2010: Asset Comparison Strategy 7%, Wind All A -7%, Excess Return 14%[18] - 2011: Asset Comparison Strategy -33%, Wind All A -22%, Excess Return -11%[18] - 2012: Asset Comparison Strategy 5%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 0%[18] - 2013: Asset Comparison Strategy 41%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 36%[18] - 2014: Asset Comparison Strategy 48%, Wind All A 52%, Excess Return -4%[18] - 2015: Asset Comparison Strategy 55%, Wind All A 38%, Excess Return 16%[18] - 2016: Asset Comparison Strategy -14%, Wind All A -13%, Excess Return -1%[18] - 2017: Asset Comparison Strategy 32%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 27%[18] - 2018: Asset Comparison Strategy -21%, Wind All A -28%, Excess Return 7%[18] - 2019: Asset Comparison Strategy 41%, Wind All A 33%, Excess Return 8%[18] - 2020: Asset Comparison Strategy 69%, Wind All A 26%, Excess Return 44%[18] - 2021: Asset Comparison Strategy 47%, Wind All A 9%, Excess Return 38%[18] - 2022: Asset Comparison Strategy 44%, Wind All A -19%, Excess Return 62%[18] - 2023: Asset Comparison Strategy 5%, Wind All A -5%, Excess Return 10%[18] - 2024: Asset Comparison Strategy 62%, Wind All A 10%, Excess Return 52%[18] - 2025 (Aug): Asset Comparison Strategy 27%, Wind All A 23%, Excess Return 4%[18] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on the highest analyst forecasted growth rates, regardless of the cycle stage[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest expected growth rates as forecasted by analysts[6] - The spread of expected growth advantage differences (Δgf) is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns since 2019, with notable performance in 2014-2015[34] Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest actual growth rates, particularly during transition and growth periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest actual growth rates (Δg)[6] - The spread of actual growth advantage differences (Δg) is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in growth-dominant environments[36] Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with high ROE and low valuation under the PB-ROE framework, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with high ROE and low PB-ROE residuals[6] - The spread of ROE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns from 2016 to 2020, with weaker performance since 2021[39] Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest DP+ROE scores, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest DP+ROE scores[6] - The spread of DP+ROE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[42] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP+BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest DP+BP scores, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest DP+BP scores[6] - The spread of DP+BP advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[45] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[46] Factor Name: Bankruptcy Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores, concentrated in stagnation and recession periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores[6] - The spread of PB+SIZE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[48] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[49] Factor Backtesting Results - **Expected Growth (gf)**: - Cable: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Zhongtian Technology, average market cap 21.791 billion yuan, 3-month performance 49.62%[34] - Cement: 19 stocks, largest weight stock Conch Cement, average market cap 17.929 billion yuan, 3-month performance 12.71%[34] - Glass Fiber: 6 stocks, largest weight stock China Jushi, average market cap 26.657 billion yuan, 3-month performance 63.67%[34] - Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials: 17 stocks, largest weight stock Northern Rare Earth, average market cap 31.018 billion yuan, 3-month performance 98.77%[34] - White Goods III: 10 stocks, largest weight stock Midea Group, average market cap 113.675 billion yuan, 3-month performance -1.21%[34] - **Actual Growth (g)**: - Integrated Circuits: 104 stocks, largest weight stock Cambricon-U, average market cap 45.058 billion yuan, 3-month performance 42.93%[37] - PCB: 38 stocks, largest weight stock Shenghong Technology, average market cap 27.163 billion yuan, 3-month performance 112.10%[37] - Tungsten: 4 stocks, largest weight stock Xiamen Tungsten, average market cap 30.523 billion yuan, 3-month performance 69.26%[37] - Lithium Battery Equipment: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Lead Intelligent, average market cap 11.731 billion yuan, 3-month performance 60.15%[37] - Weapons and Equipment III: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Great Wall Military Industry, average market cap 21.307 billion yuan, 3-month performance 80.22%[37] - **Profitability (ROE)**: - Beer: 7 stocks, largest weight stock Tsingtao Brewery, average market cap 26.758 billion yuan, 3-month performance -3.94%[39] - Liquor: 20 stocks, largest weight stock Kweichow Moutai, average market cap 162.722 billion yuan, 3-month performance 4.12%[39] - Non-dairy Beverages: 7 stocks, largest weight stock Eastroc Beverage, average market cap 32.754 billion yuan, 3-month performance -4.45%[39] - Network Connection and Tower Setup: 19 stocks, largest weight stock Zhongji Xuchuang, average market cap 64.299 billion yuan, 3-month performance 202.29%[39] - Building Decoration III: 28 stocks, largest weight stock Gold Mantis, average market cap 3.436 billion yuan, 3-month performance 4.42%[39] - **Quality Dividend (DP+ROE)**: - Automotive Motor Control: 15

消费板块中，啤酒、家电、汽车、节假日概念、航空、新消费概念等板块均纷纷下行。其中，华润啤酒（00291.HK）跌3.45%，海信家电 （00921.HK）跌5.07%，华住集团-S（01179.HK）跌1.93%，小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK）跌2.23%，比亚迪股份（01211.HK）跌2.53%，中国南 方航空股份（01055.HK）跌2.37%，中国国航（00753.HK）跌1.79%。 内房股、物管股、建材水泥股均承压走弱。世茂集团（00813.HK）跌7.69%，越秀地产（00123.HK）跌2.46%，雅生活服务（03319.HK）跌 3.58%，新城发展（01030.HK）跌2.45%，绿城中国（03900.HK）跌1.58%。 其它方面，机器人概念、特斯拉概念、脑机接口等板块等也都表现低迷。力劲科技（00558.HK）跌7%，南京熊猫电子股份（00553.HK）跌 4.17%，比亚迪电子（00285.HK）跌4.99%。 9月3日，港股三大指数集体走弱。截至收盘，恒生指数跌0.6%，国企指数跌0.64%，恒生科技指数跌0.78%。 分板块看，中资券商股跌幅居前。国联民生（01456.HK）跌 ...

华润啤酒(00291)发布公告，自2025年9月3日起，(1)执行董事赵春武先生已由总裁获调任为主席及获委 任为公司财务委员会主席;以及(2)非执行董事郭巍女士已获委任为公司财务委员会成员。 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603779 | 威龙股份 | 7.06 | -3.02% | 8.39万 | 6011.10万 | | 000752 | ST西发 | 10.63 | -2.74% | 5.36万 | 5707.51万 | | 002568 | 百润股份 | 26.03 | -2.62% | 8.50万 | 2.24亿 | | 600543 | 莫高股份 | 6.03 | -2.58% | 6.85万 | 4181.23万 | | 600084 | 中信尼雅 | 5.49 | -2.14% | 5.08万 | 2815.49万 | | 600616 | 金枫酒业 | 5.78 | -1.87% | 34.45万 | 2.05亿 | | 600573 | 意泉啤酒 | 12.05 | -1.71% | 4.12万 | 4974.18万 | | 000869 | 张 裕A | 21.68 | -1.41% | 2.09万 | 4585.62万 | | 600600 ...

2020-2025年1-7月中国啤酒产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 上市企业：珠江啤酒（002461）,重庆啤酒（600132）,燕京啤酒（000729）,兰州黄河（000929）,惠泉啤 酒（600573） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国无醇啤酒行业市场行情动态及竞争战略分析报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年7月中国啤酒产量为374万千升，同比增长1.9%；2025年1-7月中国啤 酒累计产量为2327万千升，累计增长0.6%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is experiencing a downturn, with many companies reporting declines in revenue and net profit, while other alcoholic beverages like beer and yellow wine are capitalizing on this opportunity to attract younger consumers [1][2][3]. Baijiu Industry Performance - The total revenue of baijiu companies in the first half of 2025 was 241.51 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.9% from 2024 [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 94.56 billion yuan, down 1.2% from the previous year [1]. - Only six out of twenty baijiu companies reported positive revenue growth, with Kweichow Moutai leading at 91.1 billion yuan, a 9% increase [2]. - Thirteen companies experienced declines in both revenue and net profit, indicating a widespread downturn in the baijiu sector [3]. Other Alcoholic Beverages - The beer sector showed positive growth, with most companies reporting revenue increases, particularly Qingdao Beer, which exceeded 20 billion yuan in revenue [5]. - The total revenue of other alcoholic beverages, including beer, yellow wine, and pre-mixed drinks, was 5.3 billion yuan, with net profits totaling 700 million yuan [6]. - Companies like Zhangyu A and Bai Run Holdings dominated the pre-mixed drink market, with revenues close to 1.5 billion yuan each [6]. Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The liquor market is becoming younger and more diversified, with a trend towards lower alcohol content beverages [1][7]. - Baijiu companies are actively seeking to attract younger consumers through marketing and product innovation, such as smaller packaging and lower alcohol options [7][8]. - Cross-industry collaborations are emerging, with beer companies like China Resources Beer venturing into the baijiu market, and baijiu brands launching beer products [9]. Future Outlook - The baijiu industry is expected to undergo further adjustments, with upcoming festivals like Mid-Autumn and National Day serving as critical indicators for market recovery [3]. - The success of lower alcohol products and cross-industry collaborations remains to be seen, as companies adapt to changing consumer preferences [8][9].

Core Insights - The article highlights the competitive landscape of global markets, indicating that the U.S. leads in 27 product categories, while China leads in 18 categories, an increase from 17 the previous year [2][7] - Despite some categories showing a decline in market share for Chinese companies, there are 24 categories where they have expanded their share, up from 21 the previous year [6] Group 1: Market Share Trends - In 2024, Chinese companies saw a reduction in market share across 15 categories, an increase from 13 categories in 2023 [4] - The market share of Chinese companies in the camera segment decreased from 52.5% to 49.9%, with Hikvision's share dropping by 1.8 percentage points [4] - The cloud services sector, previously growing, is now showing signs of decline, with Alibaba's share down by 0.7 percentage points [6] Group 2: Economic Impact - The ongoing real estate downturn in China, exacerbated by the crisis of Evergrande Group, has led to a sluggish domestic demand, impacting sectors like home appliances [6] - The real estate and related industries are estimated to account for 30% of China's GDP, contributing to economic stagnation and poor sales in home-related products [6] - The beer market also reflects this trend, with China Resources Beer’s market share declining by 0.2 percentage points to 5.2% [6] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - In the electric vehicle (EV) sector, Tesla's market share decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 16.1%, while the combined market share of Chinese companies like BYD exceeds 30% [6] - In the smartphone market, companies like Xiaomi and Transsion are gaining traction, particularly in emerging markets [7] - The U.S. government continues to exert pressure on Chinese companies through tariffs and regulations, which is expected to prolong the stagnation of the Chinese economy [7]

数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年7月中国啤酒进口数量为0.34亿升，同比下降17.5%，进口金额为0.51亿 美元，同比下降9.2%，2025年7月中国啤酒出口数量为0.59亿升，同比增长9.9%，出口金额为0.39亿美 元，同比增长4.3%。 近一年中国啤酒进口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 近一年中国啤酒出口情况统计图 上市企业：燕京啤酒（000729），青岛啤酒（600600），珠江啤酒（002461），重庆啤酒（600132）， 惠泉啤酒（600573） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国无醇啤酒行业市场行情动态及竞争战略分析报告》 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，饮料赛道更优，龙头优势彰显。25Q2板块收入/利润分别同 比+5.4%/+14.4%，软饮料东鹏农夫势能强劲，啤酒华润燕京、乳业伊利(600887.SH)、安琪酵母 (600298.SH)等传统龙头ROE已开启改善，餐饮供应链整体受需求影响仍在底部。具体而言：饮料赛道 相对景气，农夫(09633)瓶装水份额修复，叠加茶饮、功能性饮料红利延续，经营显著提速;东鹏 (605499.SH)能量饮料增速稳健，电解质水快速放量，叠加旺季加大冰柜陈列，延续高增。零食中魔芋 品类红利驱动盐津增长更为稳健。虽短期受电商策略调整，但全渠道布局之下韧性较优，零食量贩店稳 健增长，大魔王素毛肚品类品牌成功打造亦带动定量流通渠道增长提速。 华创证券主要观点如下： 白酒：白酒报表转负，开启加速出清。上半年白酒整体延续承压态势，二季度消费场景受损，需求端进 一步承压，酒企多放宽渠道回款压力，减少发货防止渠道过度累库，压力由渠道传递至报表，报表同比 转负，行业加速出清。 营收同比转负，结构下移拖累吨价。白酒板块单Q2营收/归母净利润同降5.0%/7.5%，剔除茅台后营收/ 归母净利同降13.0%/2 ...

研究报告 Research Report 2 Sep 2025 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国必选消费 9 月投资策略：资金面影响更大，关注低位股和权重股 The impact of funds is greater, pay attention to low position stocks and heavyweight stocks [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 双汇发展 | Outperform | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 今世缘 | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 迎驾贡酒 | Outperform | | 山西汾酒 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安琪酵母 ...