Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including agriculture, black metals, non - ferrous metals, etc. Each market has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, policy, and industry - specific factors [17][20][45]. Summary by Related Catalogs Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Status**: The market is in a temporary stable phase, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuating. The international soybean market has large supply pressure, and domestic soybean meal may decline due to increased supply pressure [15][17]. - **Strategy**: Suggested to wait and see; M11 - 1 positive spread; sell call options on soybean meal [17]. Sugar - **Market Status**: Brazilian sugar prices are falling, and the overall trend of sugar is weak. The international raw sugar fundamentals are weak, and the domestic sugar market is expected to follow the international market [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound after a sharp decline, suggest short - selling at high prices; short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar; sell out - of - the - money call options [21]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Status**: The market lacks short - term drivers and fluctuates weakly. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil has marginal inventory reduction [22][23]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, consider light - position long when there is a significant correction [24]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Status**: New grain supply is increasing, and the market is fluctuating weakly. US corn may fluctuate narrowly, and domestic corn has a short - term decline space [25][27]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long for 12 - contract corn on dips; close 01 - contract long positions; wait for dips to buy 05 and 07 - contract corn [27]. Live Pigs - **Market Status**: Supply pressure persists, and the rebound is blocked. The overall pig inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains [28]. - **Strategy**: Try short - selling in small quantities; LH15 reverse spread; sell call options [29]. Peanuts - **Market Status**: Peanut oil mills have not started large - scale purchases, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom. The new - season peanuts are strong in some areas, and the market is stable [32][33]. - **Strategy**: Buy 01 and 05 - contract peanuts on dips; sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [33]. Eggs - **Market Status**: Inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are fluctuating weakly. The laying - hen inventory is high, and the demand is average [34][36]. - **Strategy**: Close previous short positions; wait and see for spreads and options [37]. Apples - **Market Status**: The high - quality fruit rate is low, and apple prices are strong. Some areas have small - sized apples and water - crack problems, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts is high [38][39]. - **Strategy**: Long 11 - contract and short 1 - contract apples; wait and see for options [40]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Status**: New cotton purchase is accelerating, and cotton prices are fluctuating. Xinjiang cotton has a high yield, and the demand in the peak season is not strong [41][43]. - **Strategy**: Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger; short 11 - contract and long 1 - contract cotton; wait and see for options [43]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Status**: Driven by raw materials, steel prices rise, but there is still upward pressure. Construction steel trading volume is improving, but there are inventory and demand problems [45]. - **Strategy**: Maintain range - bound trading; long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; wait and see for options [46]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Status**: Supply is disrupted, and prices are supported. Coal mine production is affected by safety and environmental factors, but steel mill demand is not strong [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, but be cautious about the upward space; wait and see for spreads and options [48]. Iron Ore - **Market Status**: Take a bearish view in the medium - term. Global iron ore supply has increased, and domestic demand may weaken [50][53]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [52][53]. Ferroalloys - **Market Status**: Low - valuation - driven rebound, but the sustainability is limited. Both silicon iron and manganese silicon have high supply and weak demand [55]. - **Strategy**: Continue range - bound trading; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [56]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Status**: Intense long - short competition, and gold and silver are in adjustment. The market is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [58][61]. - **Strategy**: Enter an adjustment phase in the short - term; wait and see for spreads and options [61]. Copper - **Market Status**: Short - term consolidation, long - term trend unchanged. The macro - environment and supply - demand situation affect copper prices [62]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, hold long - short positions across markets; wait and see for options [63]. Alumina - **Market Status**: Supply is changing, and prices are bottom - grinding. The market has an oversupply situation, and some producers are reducing production [66][70]. - **Strategy**: Bottom - grinding in the short - term, may rebound if production reduction expands; wait and see for spreads and options [70]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Status**: The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, driven by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The inventory is decreasing, and the production of some overseas plants is affected [70][71]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [74]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Status**: The price is expected to be strong, with improved macro - sentiment and cost support. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand has resilience [75][80]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [80]. Zinc - **Market Status**: Suggest waiting and seeing. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has low inventory and high concentration of near - month contracts [81]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for all strategies [82]. Lead - **Market Status**: Supply is gradually recovering, and prices may fall. With the resumption of production, the supply of lead ingots may increase [86]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, add short at high prices; wait and see for spreads and options [86]. Nickel - **Market Status**: Inventory accumulation indicates oversupply, and prices are under pressure. The supply of pure nickel is abundant, and demand is weak [89]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell at the upper edge of the shock range; wait and see for spreads; sell 2512 - contract wide - straddle options [90]. Stainless Steel - **Market Status**: The decline in warehouse receipts boosts near - month contracts. The price is lower than the cost, and demand restricts the increase [91]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term; long ss2512 and short ss2602 [93]. Other Commodities Industrial Silicon - **Market Status**: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term. The demand for polysilicon will decrease in November, and there is short - term oversupply [94]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a full correction; no strategy for spreads and options [94]. Polysilicon - **Market Status**: Buy on dips near the previous support level. The supply - demand balance will improve in November, and the short - term decline space is limited [95]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips; exit the previous rebound strategy; adjust the double - buying option strategy [95][97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Status**: Supported by demand and supply risks, prices are rising. The domestic lithium ore is tightening, and the processing fee is decreasing [98]. - **Strategy**: Bullish; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. Tin - **Market Status**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and prices fluctuate around the integer level. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and demand growth is slow [100]. - **Strategy**: Not provided in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **沪铜**: Last night, Shanghai copper hit bottom and rebounded, and today it oscillated upward to regain losses, with little change in open interest. The decline in copper price last night was mainly affected by the sharp drop in gold price, but the overall trend was resilient. The downstream industry remained in a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, and the spot premium continued to weaken. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 85,000 mark [6]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, and the open interest continued to rise. In the short term, as the copper price stabilizes, the non - ferrous sector operates strongly. The downstream industry makes rigid purchases, and there is no momentum to reduce the low - level inventory. Technically, the aluminum price faces pressure at the 21,000 mark [7]. - **沪镍**: Today, the nickel price hit bottom and rebounded in the morning and oscillated strongly during the day. In the short term, as the copper price stabilizes, the non - ferrous sector operates strongly. The nickel price is at a low level since September, and short - covering willingness is strong. The industrial pressure remains, and the nickel price has weak rebound momentum. Continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Citi is bullish on copper and aluminum in the medium term. The copper price will reach $12,000 per ton in the next 6 - 12 months, and the aluminum price will reach $3,500 per ton by 2027 [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,700 - 123,500 yuan per ton, with an average price of 122,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 400 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,400 - 2,600 yuan per ton, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan per ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, aluminum monthly spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may be on the strong side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - For copper, the concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2] - For zinc, the short - term zinc concentrate processing fee has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets has increased on a weekly basis. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. The Indonesian mine accident may cause a global copper supply - demand gap, long - term supporting copper prices. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 85,380 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 15 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,597 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 30.22 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 137,175 tons, and the daily change was - 50 tons [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. LME low inventory has led to a significant spot premium. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,855 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,994 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 299.34 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 37,325 tons, and the daily change was - 700 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,890 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 0 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,781 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 487,125 tons, and the daily change was - 4,100 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 120,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,680 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,210 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 206.29 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 250,476 tons, and the daily change was - 54 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,060 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 195 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,993 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 39.69 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 247,300 tons, and the daily change was - 3,100 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 279,340 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 350 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,475 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 56.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,735 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and trading strategies. It assesses the supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic impacts, and geopolitical events affecting each commodity. Overall, different commodities are expected to have diverse price trends, with some facing downward pressure due to supply surpluses or weakening demand, while others may experience upward movement supported by demand or supply - side constraints. Summary by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products 1. Soybean Meal - The supply pressure of international soybeans remains high, and domestic soybean meal is also expected to decline due to increased supply pressure. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis, conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads for arbitrage, and sell call options [17]. 2. Sugar - International sugar prices are in a weak trend with the downward - opened space after breaking the previous low. Domestic sugar is expected to follow the external market. The strategy is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and conduct short ICE US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage [21]. 3. Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market may see a slight inventory build - up in October. Domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil may continue to reduce inventory marginally. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider going long on dips [25]. 4. Corn/Corn Starch - The US corn may continue to narrow - range fluctuate in the short - term. Domestic new - crop corn supply is increasing, and the spot price has a downward space. The suggestion is to go long on dips for the 12 - contract US corn, hold long positions for the 01 - contract domestic corn, and wait for dips to go long for the 05 and 07 contracts [29]. 5. Live Pigs - The slaughter pressure has improved, and the spot price has a phased rebound. However, the overall supply pressure still exists. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle options [31]. 6. Peanuts - Peanut production may be affected by rainfall, and the 01 - contract peanut may fluctuate strongly in the short - term but overall remains at the bottom. The recommendation is to go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [34]. 7. Eggs - The inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The suggestion is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and close out previous short positions to take profits [39]. 8. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. The strategy is to go long on a single - side basis, conduct long November and short January for arbitrage [42]. 9. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton acquisition is accelerating. The market may face selling - hedging pressure with the large - scale listing of new cotton. The demand improvement is limited. The recommendation is that the US cotton may fluctuate, and domestic cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger. Hold cross - market positive spreads and consider cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decline [46]. Ferrous Metals 1. Steel - The demand pressure persists, but the steel price has a lower valuation and some support. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The suggestion is to maintain the range - bound strategy on a single - side basis and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at low prices for arbitrage [49]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal supply is tight, but the steel mill demand is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [52]. 3. Iron Ore - The market expectation is weak, and the fundamentals have changed. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - term on a single - side basis [54]. 4. Ferroalloys - The steel procurement for ferroalloys is weak. Both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [58]. Non - Ferrous Metals 1. Precious Metals - Due to the loosening of previous positive factors, gold and silver prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [62]. 2. Copper - The macro - environment has changed, and the supply - side disturbances have increased. The consumption is average but has some resilience. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis and hold cross - market positive spreads [64]. 3. Alumina - The supply - side is showing marginal changes, and the price is expected to grind at a low level. It is recommended to focus on the supply - side changes on a single - side basis [69]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - The macro - factors are the main drivers. The consumption has some resilience. The suggestion is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [75]. 5. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - panic has improved, and the cost is supported. The price is expected to be strong. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [80]. 6. Zinc - The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has some support. It is recommended to wait and see [83]. 7. Lead - The supply is gradually recovering, and the price may decline. The suggestion is to hold previous short positions and add short positions at high prices [89]. 8. Nickel - The inventory is increasing, indicating an oversupply. The price is under pressure. The recommendation is to short at the upper limit of the shock range on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle option combinations [90]. 9. Stainless Steel - The demand is weak, and the price is testing the cost support. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis [94]. Other Commodities 1. Industrial Silicon - The demand from polysilicon may decline in November, and the price is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to wait for sufficient dips on a single - side basis [95]. 2. Polysilicon - The supply - demand balance will improve in November. It is recommended to buy at dips on a single - side basis, hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and adjust the option strategy [98]. 3. Lithium Carbonate - The demand is strong, and the supply has risks. The price is expected to strengthen. The suggestion is to go long on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. 4. Tin - The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the price is consolidating around the integer level. The market is cautious, and the demand recovery is not good [103]. 5. Shipping - The spot price of container shipping continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations [12]. 6. Energy and Chemicals - Different energy and chemical products have various trends. For example, crude oil is temporarily stable, while some products like PX & PTA and ethylene glycol face supply - demand changes and price fluctuations. Specific trading strategies are provided for each product based on their supply - demand and market conditions [14].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 期货研究报告 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 日内铜价走强 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜上午增仓上行，一度逼近 8.6 万关口，午后高位小幅回 落。周五夜盘市场风险偏好回升，叠加今日国内宏观数据较好，利 好铜价。产业上，下游观望氛围较浓，周一电解铜社库小幅累库， 给予期价压力。技术上，关注前期高位压力。 沪铝 今日沪铝在 2.09 万上方窄幅震荡，持仓量持续下降，振幅明显收 窄。今日宏观回暖，但铝价表现较弱，这很可能是由于产业压力较 大。技术上，铝价在 2.1 万关口压力 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: The Shanghai copper contract continued to decline with decreasing positions, dropping nearly 700 yuan/ton during the day. Due to strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, while non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. A recent decline in gold prices led to a significant drop in copper prices. Short - term caution is needed for a potential fall after a peak in gold prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 84,000 yuan mark [6]. - **沪铝**: The Shanghai aluminum contract also declined with decreasing positions, falling nearly 100 yuan/ton during the day. With strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, and non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. Technically, the aluminum price faced significant pressure at the 21,000 yuan mark, and support at the 60 - day moving average should be monitored [7]. - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel contract showed weak oscillations with little change in positions. Given strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, and non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. Nickel was relatively resistant to decline in the sector due to its weaker macro - attribute. Short - term attention should be paid to the low since late September [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: High copper prices still suppressed terminal demand, resulting in weak new orders. The operating rate of the enameled wire industry rebounded by 3.87 percentage points to 75.2% this week, and new orders increased by 6.96 percentage points but had not returned to normal levels [10]. - **Aluminum**: As of October 16, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $74.45/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average CIF prices of various types of bauxite from different regions remained stable compared to the previous trading day [11]. - **Nickel**: On October 17, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2511 contract. The mainstream premiums and discounts and prices of different types of nickel (Jinchuan electrolytic nickel, Russian nickel, Norwegian nickel, and nickel beans) were provided [12]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts related to copper included the copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: Charts related to aluminum were the aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: Charts related to nickel covered the nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the strong side. The tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, positive growth in power grid investment and automobile production and sales, negative growth in home appliance production scheduling, and the Indonesian mine accident that may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap all support copper prices in the long - term. Market sentiment has gradually stabilized after the Sino - US trade confrontation [2]. - Zinc prices will follow copper prices. Although the short - term zinc concentrate processing fee has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise, due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. Overall, the supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Copper - Night - session copper prices closed higher. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. Power grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Market sentiment has stabilized after the Sino - US trade confrontation. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. The short - term zinc concentrate processing fee has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. Zinc supply - demand difference is not obvious overall, but it will follow copper prices in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | **Variety** | **Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton)** | **Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton)** | **Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton)** | **LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, USD/ton)** | **LME Inventory (ton)** | **LME Inventory Daily Change (ton)** | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 85,050 | 35 | 10,620 | - 11.16 | 138,350 | - 450 | | Aluminum | 20,975 | 0 | 2,796 | 17.52 | 498,975 | - 4,975 | | Zinc | 21,940 | - 55 | 2,968 | 137.20 | 38,350 | - 250 | | Nickel | 121,270 | - 1,580 | 15,230 | - 205.73 | 246,756 | 3,498 | | Lead | 17,100 | - 210 | 1,972 | - 44.99 | 254,775 | 8,225 | | Tin | 281,350 | 650 | 35,725 | - 129.00 | 2,575 | 190 | [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding price trend forecasts for each metal [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday, SHFE copper fluctuated around 85,000 yuan. SMM spot copper was reported at 85,175 yuan, with a premium of 60 yuan in Shanghai. Social inventory increased by 5,500 tons to 177,500 tons this week [2] - The US government shutdown led to a lack of physical indicators. The Fed's Beige Book showed weakening consumer spending and labor force, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - SHFE aluminum rebounded today, with spot aluminum in East China at par. In the off - season, the apparent consumption of aluminum was basically flat year - on - year. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased by 23,000 tons and 5,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. Since the National Day, inventory performance has been neutral. Macro sentiment is volatile, and SHFE aluminum will test the previous high resistance in the short term [3] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of SHFE aluminum. The Baotai spot price is 20,600 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increases enterprise costs. However, the industry inventory is at a high level, and the SHFE warehouse receipts reach 43,000 tons. Whether the price difference with SHFE aluminum can continue to narrow remains to be seen [3] - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventory continues to rise. There is an obvious supply surplus, and the spot index in various regions continues to decline at a rate of about 10 yuan per day. The average cost in Shanxi and Henan in September was around 3,000 yuan. The current index price is not enough to trigger cash - loss production cuts in Shanxi and Henan but is approaching it. Alumina is mainly in a weak operation [3] Zinc - Although the spot export window has briefly opened, there has been no substantial large - scale export of zinc ingots. LME zinc inventory is at a low level of 38,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month premium is at a high level of $139.83/ton. Overseas supply is tight, but terminal consumption has not improved significantly, and downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is insufficient. LME zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - Overseas smelter profits have recovered, and overseas zinc ingot supply may increase in the fourth quarter. The hidden inventory cannot be verified for the time being. Focus on tracking changes in LME zinc inventory. Some smelters in Gansu and Guangxi in China plan to conduct maintenance, and the room for further expansion of the domestic - foreign price difference is limited. The fundamentals are weak at home and strong abroad, and the export window is about to open. SHFE zinc is expected to consolidate at a low level, LME zinc will fluctuate at a high level, and the SHFE - LME ratio will fluctuate widely around the opening of the export window [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel is in a weak operation, and market trading is light. After the interest rate cut, the tendency of long - position holders to take profits is prominent. Sino - US frictions have increased uncertainty, and the macro - environment is gradually moving towards lower risk appetite [7] - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak. During the traditional peak consumption season, downstream demand recovery is limited, market transactions are light, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 953 yuan per nickel point. Pure nickel inventory has increased by nearly 3,000 tons to 43,700 tons, nickel - iron inventory has increased by 600 tons to 29,200 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 3,400 tons to 909,000 tons. SHFE nickel's bullish factors are exhausted, and nickel prices are in a weak operation with a downward - biased center [7] Tin - SHFE tin fluctuated and closed up at the 280,000 - yuan level, and spot tin was reported at 281,200 yuan. The market has digested the Indonesian theme, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports rebounded to 484 tons in September. Hold short positions at high levels [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded, and market trading was light. Sino - US frictions have a short - term impact on market risk appetite. The overall inventory level of lithium carbonate is still high, and there may be a callback risk in the short term. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 134,800 tons. Smelter inventory increased by 1,250 tons to 35,000 tons, downstream inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 60,000 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 2,200 tons to 40,000 tons. Technically, lithium carbonate is in a weak operation, waiting for clarity [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher and did not follow the strong linkage of coking coal. The spot price continued to be under pressure, and the price of the East China 553 specification decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The release of the复产 capacity in Xinjiang in September and the production increase of large enterprises have increased the risk of inventory accumulation. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest at the end of October, and the cost side has strong support. The futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to rise, mainly driven by the expectation of photovoltaic capacity control policies. The fundamentals do not provide effective support for the time being, and the spot price remains stable. The output in October may continue to grow beyond expectations, and the risk of inventory accumulation under high inventory has increased. After the market, there were rumors about recent capacity policies, which still need to be clarified. The market may have a callback risk due to this, and it is recommended to strictly control positions [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper price dropped in the afternoon and then rebounded in a V - shape, with little change in the position. The main contract price fluctuated around 85,000. The short - term market digested the negative impact of Sino - US trade friction, while the medium - and long - term supply contraction and macro - easing logic remained unchanged. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 85,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price increased in position and rose. The main contract price approached the 21,000 mark at the end of the session. The non - ferrous metals as a whole fluctuated, and the aluminum price was relatively strong. The short - term market digested the negative impact of Sino - US trade friction, and the market focus shifted to the medium - and long - term macro and industrial aspects. The decline in the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum on Thursday supported the aluminum price. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 21,000 mark [5]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated and rose, with a slight decline in the position. The short - term market digested the negative impact of Sino - US trade friction, and the non - ferrous metal sector as a whole stabilized. The nickel price was weak due to the weak industry and remained at a low level since late September. Attention should be paid to the low - level support [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: BHP is considering reopening four long - closed copper mines in Arizona, USA. The potential restart plan will focus on the Globe–Miami area, and BHP also plans to re - process the tailings of the closed operations there [8]. - **Aluminum**: On October 16, 2025, the inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong was 61,500 tons, and that in Wuxi was 43,500 tons, with a total of 105,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with the previous period. The Mysteel electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 615,000 tons on October 16, a decrease of 27,000 tons compared with October 13 [9][10]. - **Nickel**: On October 16, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,700 - 123,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,400 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 100 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic explicit inventory, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][38][40].

Report Investment Ratings - Copper: Not explicitly stated, but implied positive trend [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not explicitly rated [1] - Zinc: Not explicitly stated, but implied bearish trend [1][3] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][6] - Tin: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish trend with low operability [1][7] - Lithium Carbonate: Not explicitly rated, but implied bearish trend [1][8] - Industrial Silicon: Not explicitly rated, expected to fluctuate [1][9] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated, recommended to be cautious [1][10] Core Views - The prices of different non - ferrous metals show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - economic situation, and policy expectations [2][3][6] - Some metals like aluminum and copper have specific trading strategies based on their market performance and fundamental factors [2][7] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper prices rose during the day, with the spot price at 85,235 yuan. The Shanghai copper premium was 90 yuan, and the Guangdong premium was 40 yuan on the last trading day. The option portfolio strategy is continued [2] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded slightly, with the East China spot premium at 30 yuan. The apparent consumption of aluminum in the off - season was basically flat year - on - year. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and rods increased moderately during the National Day, and the inventory decreased in the past two days. The spot premium and discount improved. The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the short - term Shanghai aluminum will test the previous high resistance [2] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continues to fall by about 10 yuan. The current index price is approaching the cash - loss production cut level in Shanxi and Henan [2] Zinc - On Wednesday, the LME zinc spot delivery day, the 0 - 3 month premium declined from a high level, the zinc spot export window opened, and the LME zinc inventory stopped falling and rebounded. The extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets converged. The fourth - quarter Shanghai zinc has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the domestic consumption peak season is weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. It is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is weakly operating, and the market trading is light. After the interest - rate cut, the long - position cashing - out tendency is prominent, and the Sino - US friction increases uncertainty. The stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, with limited downstream demand recovery in the traditional peak season, and the social inventory has stopped falling and rebounded [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed up at 281,000 yuan, and the spot tin was reported at 281,700 yuan, basically at par on the last trading day. There is no new news about the resumption of Burmese ore supply, and the domestic leading production capacity that was under maintenance is gradually resuming production this month [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was light. The Sino - US friction affects market risk preference in the short term. The overall inventory level is still high, and there may be a short - term correction risk. Technically, it is weakly operating [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fell slightly. In October, the production capacity in the Xinjiang production area continued to be released, and the production rate in the southern production area remained stable. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest production area from late October to early November. The cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price significantly rebounded, driven by policy - related news. However, the fundamentals lack positive factors, with the spot price narrowly fluctuating, high - price resistance in the market, and expected production increase in October. The risk of inventory accumulation is rising, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices [10]