工业硅日报 一、研究观点 点评 27 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 9115 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.33%，持仓 减仓 22881 手至 23.8 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9727 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格涨至 9000 元/吨，现货贴水扩至 40 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 55235 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.91%，持仓 减仓 1457 手至 14.2 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 52300 元/吨，最 低交割品硅料价格涨至 52300 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 5690 元/吨。西 南工业硅厂扩大减产，但北方整体供给稳定，积极向期现商出货，导致价 格未修复到西南硅厂顺利出货位置。工业硅短期难见趋势，延续震荡调 整。因硅片订单大幅收缩，二三线经历阶段恐慌性降价，但硅料挺价意愿 强烈。当前市场对于多晶硅产能收储并不乐观，叠加终端需求收缩给予硅 料端有价无市压力。当前资金集中在近月挤仓和 1-5 正套上，短期期现持 续分歧且波动较高，建议谨慎为上。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅&多晶硅 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow strongly. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long term. Suggestions include monitoring changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally high. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak. Overall, zinc supply - demand differences are not significant, and prices may fluctuate within a range [2] Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous Date Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - Month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 86,930 | 60 | 10,930 | 16.56 | 156,500 | - 75 | | Aluminum | 21,470 | - 60 | 2,832 | - 28.45 | 541,725 | - 2,000 | | Zinc | 22,380 | 45 | 3,022 | 165.44 | 49,925 | 1,925 | | Nickel | 116,710 | - 2,980 | 14,840 | - 197.06 | 254,520 | 1,038 | | Lead | 16,945 | - 60 | 1,984 | - 38.94 | 264,975 | 400 | | Tin | 301,460 | - 4,590 | 37,925 | 126.15 | 3,125 | 40 | [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated with a continuous increase in open interest. There was significant selling pressure above 87,000 yuan domestically. The strengthening US dollar index during the day pressured copper prices. In the industry, there was a divergence in electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad, with overseas marginal inventory accumulation and domestic marginal inventory reduction. The spot premium of Shanghai copper strengthened slightly. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the resistance at the 11,000 - dollar mark for LME copper [5]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. The strengthening US dollar index cooled the short - term bullish sentiment in the market, leading to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. In the industry, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, providing support for futures prices. Since this week, aluminum prices have rebounded slightly, but open interest has continued to decline, indicating reduced capital attention. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 21,500 - yuan mark [6]. - **沪镍**: Today, the main futures price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly below 117,000 yuan, and the open interest of Shanghai nickel decreased slightly. The rebound of the US dollar led to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. In the industry, the spot premium of nickel continued to strengthen, providing support for futures prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 120,000 - yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: European industry players have stated that if the export of scrap metals (copper and aluminum) is unrestricted, Europe may face a shortage of smelting raw materials, affecting the production and supply of semi - finished products. Some have called for expanding export restrictions to the scrap copper sector [9]. - **Aluminum**: On November 27, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from Monday [10]. - **Nickel**: As of November 27, on the supply side, while the supply remained stable, upstream iron plants still had no zero - order quotes, showing a strong willingness to hold prices. On the demand side, there was continuous release of downstream procurement demand during the week, with the transaction focus concentrated at 880 yuan per nickel point. However, although the buying was more active, terminal consumption remained weak, and market pessimism persisted. Overall, there was oversupply, and the price of high - nickel pig iron remained under pressure in the short term [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The related charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The charts involve nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].

一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 9 月整体耐用品订单 | | | 环比初值增长 0.5%，与市场预期持平，但较 8 月的 2.9%明显放缓。美联储褐皮书显示， | | | 美国经济活动近期几乎陷入停滞，就业市场持续走弱、通胀压力犹存，货币政策面临挑 | | | 战。不过，美联储 12 月降息的 概率继续回升。库存方面来看，LME 库存下降 75 吨至 | | 铜 | 156500 吨；Comex 库存增加 1620 吨至 378904 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 1140 吨至 39825 | | | 吨，BC 铜维系 5802 吨。需求方面，铜价维系高位，下游接受度有所提升，整体需求呈 | | | 现缓慢回暖态势。内外股市回稳以及铜年度长单报价大幅走高推动铜价表现偏强，值得 | | | 注意的是市场看涨铜正趋于一致性，不过库存"堰塞湖"依然会对年内铜价高度形成制 | | | 约。关注铜价在高位的表现，暂时维系高位震荡观点，但一旦向上有效突破，则可能引 | | | 起新一轮的波动率抬升及看涨情绪。 | | | ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2] - The supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious overall, and it may fluctuate within a range [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate [2] - Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak [2] - Domestic copper futures' previous day's closing price was 86,540 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 50 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 10,833 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 9.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 155,750 tons, and the daily change was 725 tons [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow [2] - Galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. Infrastructural investment's cumulative growth rate is slowing down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production shows negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak [2] - Domestic zinc futures' previous day's closing price was 22,360 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 35 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 3,000 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 120.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 47,425 tons, and the daily change was 100 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,425 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,801 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.45 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 545,950 tons, and the daily change was - 2,050 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 115,940 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 4,080 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 14,920 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 190.51 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 253,482 tons, and the daily change was - 468 tons [2] - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,005 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 50 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 1,982 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 35.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 265,275 tons, and the daily change was 2,425 tons [2] - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 294,640 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,580 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 37,695 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 135.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,085 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪铜**: The main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly around 86,200 yuan. The speech of New York Fed President Williams, interpreted as "dovish" by the market, reignited traders' hopes for a possible interest rate cut in December, with the probability of a December rate cut rising to around 70%. Copper prices rebounded significantly on Friday night. Overseas electrolytic copper inventories continued to rise, suppressing copper prices, while domestic social inventories of electrolytic copper decreased on Monday. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 86,000 yuan mark [6]. - **沪铝**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly. The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut heated up again, and aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded from Friday night. As aluminum prices weakened, the spot premium strengthened, reflecting increased industrial support. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 21,400 yuan level [7]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel rebounded significantly with reduced positions, and the main contract price regained the 115,000 yuan mark. The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut heated up again, and nickel prices stabilized and rebounded from Friday night. The willingness of long - positions to close increased today. As nickel prices declined last week, the spot premium gradually strengthened, reflecting increased support at the spot end. Technically, the short - term nickel price regained the 115,000 yuan mark, and continuous closing of long - positions may drive nickel prices to continue to rebound [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: As of November 24, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China decreased by 13,900 tons week - on - week to 180,600 tons. The main reasons for the inventory reduction this week were the decrease in domestic supply arrivals and the improvement in the outbound rhythm. SMM expected a decrease in imported supply arrivals and stable downstream purchasing willingness, predicting a slight decrease in weekly copper inventory [10]. - **Nickel**: On November 24, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 115,400 - 120,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 117,750 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,050 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,200 - 4,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,350 yuan/ton, a rise of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provided charts on copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper注销仓单比例, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warehouse receipt inventory, etc. [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: Charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, etc. were presented [23][25][30] - **Nickel**: Charts on nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. were included [36][38][42]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Last night, the macro - atmosphere weakened, and the copper price dropped below the 86,000 yuan mark. Today, the decline slowed, with the open interest of Shanghai copper continuing to decline, and the main futures price stabilizing around 85,600 yuan. After the US non - farm payrolls data was released last night, the US stocks opened high and closed low with a significant decline, and the Asian market continued the downward trend today. In the industry, as the copper price fell, spot transactions improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 85,500 yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum significantly decreased with a reduction in positions, and the main futures price fell below the 21,500 yuan mark. Last night, the overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and the domestic market continued the downturn. In the industry, as the aluminum price weakened, downstream transactions improved, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated downward, with little change in open interest, and the main futures price fell below the 115,000 yuan mark. Last night, the overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and the domestic market continued the decline. As the nickel price dropped, the spot premium gradually strengthened, indicating stronger support in the spot market. Technically, the main futures price breaking below the 115,000 yuan mark has strong downward momentum [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 21st, the weekly SMM copper cable operating rate increased by 1.32 percentage points. As the copper price fell below 86,000 yuan/ton, orders rebounded, but some enterprises were still observing. The demand for automotive wiring harnesses was good. SMM expected a slight increase in the operating rate next week as enterprises would increase production for the end - of - November rush [9]. - **Aluminum**: On November 20th, the Mysteel electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday [10]. - **Nickel**: On November 21st, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 114,400 - 119,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 116,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,000 - 4,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium and discount quotation range was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Relevant charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Related charts are aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Relevant charts cover nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall non - ferrous metals market is in a state of adjustment, with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as inventory changes, policy uncertainties, and overseas market conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday saw Shanghai copper trading with a short - position and a negative line in a volatile manner. SMM spot copper was reported at 86,435 yuan, with premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong at 80 and 55 yuan respectively. SMM social inventory increased by 700 tons to 194,500 tons this week. Wait for the US September non - farm payroll data at night. The Fed meeting minutes showed large differences, and the probability of a December interest rate cut dropped to 30%. Hold short positions with a stop - loss at 87,000 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum showed a weak and volatile trend today. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China slightly narrowed to - 10 yuan, - 100 yuan, and - 125 yuan respectively. The non - ferrous metals market as a whole has been adjusting with reduced positions recently. The short - term fundamentals of the aluminum market are average, and the inventory build - up indicates poor performance. The adjustment may continue. Pay attention to the support of the middle Bollinger Band. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,800 yuan today. Scrap aluminum supplies are tight, and the tax rate policy adjustment is still unclear. Both industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are at high levels. Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are rising. The oversupply situation is hard to change, and there is no movement during the heating season. Spot indices in various regions dropped by 5 yuan today. Alumina is likely to operate weakly before large - scale production cuts occur [3] Zinc - The impact of environmental protection in the north has been lifted, and downstream purchasing has accelerated. SMM zinc social inventory decreased to 152,700 tons, while LME zinc inventory increased to 45,000 tons. LME zinc broke through the support level and declined, but the tight overseas spot market still supports a high 0 - 3 month spot premium of $152.14 per ton. The split structure of domestic and overseas inventories is gradually being repaired, and the three - month import loss of zinc has narrowed to around 3,000 yuan per ton. There is still profit space for the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy on the futures market. Both domestic and overseas mine TC have decreased, and the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices has improved. Shanghai zinc is expected to stabilize above the 60 - day moving average and is likely to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan per ton [4] Lead - After the lead price correction, downstream buyers were active. After the delivery, the SHFE lead warehouse receipts gradually decreased to 30,600 tons, and SMM lead social inventory decreased to 37,700 tons. The low inventory level supports the futures price. SMM 1 lead has a discount of 110 yuan per ton to the nearby contract. The profit of recycled lead is under pressure, and the refined - scrap spread has narrowed to 25 yuan per ton. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 264,000 tons, with a 0 - 3 month discount of $27.39 per ton. The overseas market's oversupply pressure remains unchanged, and LME lead still has room for further correction. There is an expectation that the lead ingot import window will open, and Shanghai lead lacks the momentum to rebound. The lower support is tentatively seen at 17,000 yuan per ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and closed low, and market trading was dull. After the US government ended the shutdown, the positive news was exhausted, and the market began to worry about the stability of overseas liquidity. Pay attention to whether the Fed will take actions to ease the liquidity pressure recently. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 3,900 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 500 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 175 yuan. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel declined, and the price of high - nickel iron is quoted at 906 yuan per nickel point. The support brought by the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, which may drag down the overall price level of the nickel industry chain. Pure nickel inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 53,100 tons, nickel iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,600 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 6,700 tons to 952,000 tons. The bullish factors for Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the nickel price is in a weak trend with a downward - shifting center of gravity [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed with a negative line and reduced positions. There is an environmental risk in a rare earth and tin mining area in Malaysia, and the mining area is under rectification. Due to the lack of specific data, the current impact on the tin market is limited. The domestic spot tin price remained unchanged at 291,500 yuan, with a discount of 100 yuan to the delivery month. The resumption rhythm of low - grade mines and the efficiency of capacity rectification of Indonesia's PT Timah are the keys to deepening the tight supply in the future. Hold long - term short positions with a stop - loss at 295,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - There is a battle at the integer - level price of lithium carbonate, and market trading is active. Downstream material factories are actively producing, and about 20 lithium iron phosphate enterprises have reached full - capacity operation. This phenomenon is expected to continue until the end of the year, mainly because downstream battery cell factories have a large increase in orders: the pure - electric heavy - truck project is continuously advancing, the traditional peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" for cars, and the shortage of energy - storage battery cells. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons again, and traders increased their inventory. The sentiment in the middle - stream has improved, and the spot market shows some support. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $1,055. The lithium carbonate futures price is strengthening, inventory is continuously decreasing, and downstream demand is strong. Technically, it has broken through the range. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [9] Industrial Silicon - After a short - term upward rush, the industrial silicon futures decreased in positions and declined today. The spot price increased slightly by 100 yuan per ton, and the price of downstream organic silicon DMC remained stable at 13,100 yuan per ton (SMM). Based on the "anti - involution" principle, the organic silicon industry plans to promote a joint emission - reduction plan in December, which is expected to affect the demand for industrial silicon by about 4,000 tons (corresponding to a reduction of 8,000 tons of DMC production), which is more cautious than the previous 30% reduction expectation. Overall, industrial silicon is in a technical correction in the short term, and the price is still expected to rise with the pricing repair expectation of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined synchronously with industrial silicon. The spot price of N - type polysilicon for re - feeding fluctuated within a narrow range, quoted by SMM at 49,700 - 54,900 yuan per ton. The overall demand in the photovoltaic market is weak, the marginal decline in terminal purchasing is obvious, and there is no intention to purchase domestic products overseas. There is still an expectation of reducing production in the component sector in December, and the inventory pressure in the battery cell sector is large. Although the polysilicon industry has cut production, the actual improvement in supply - demand is limited, and the price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term [11]

Report Title - The report is titled "Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals" [1][2] Report Date - The report is dated November 20, 2025 [5] Core Views Copper - Today, Shanghai copper prices rose first and then fell, with little change in open interest. The short - term market has released the hawkish sentiment towards the Fed, but the US dollar index remains strong above 100, which is negative for non - ferrous metals. Overseas inventories are rising, pressuring copper prices. Attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls data tonight. Technically, focus on the support at the 86,000 level [7] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices also rose first and then fell, with open interest continuously declining. The overseas US dollar index is strong, and the domestic atmosphere is weakening. As aluminum prices fall, downstream transactions are warming up, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has slightly decreased. On the 20th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday. Technically, focus on the support of the 20 - day moving average [8] Nickel - Shanghai nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, erasing the overnight gains. The domestic market weakened, and non - ferrous metals generally declined. Nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, showing strong downward momentum. As nickel prices fall, the spot premium is gradually strengthening, indicating stronger support at the spot end. Technically, focus on the support at the 115,000 level [9] Industry Dynamics Copper - On November 20, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and waste reached 196,600 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The cumulative imports from January to October were 1.8956 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.97% [11] Aluminum - On November 20, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday [11] Nickel - On November 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 116,000 - 120,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 118,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,000 - 4,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [12] Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15] Aluminum - There are charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30][32] Nickel - Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][40][43][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining at a loss. The market has reduced its bets on a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Fundamentally, downstream acceptance of high copper prices has increased, and demand is slowly recovering. However, the instability of domestic and international stock markets has dampened confidence in a significant rise in copper prices. The overall global visible inventory is still in a state of accumulation, approaching recent high levels, and the high copper prices have shown a suppressive effect on terminal copper use. Without unexpected events, copper prices are expected to show a high - level oscillating trend, with volatility likely to remain at a low level [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, while aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The alumina futures market has shown a narrow - range correction. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the market has been driven by long - position funds. However, due to fundamental support and environmental protection restrictions in the north, high prices have a significant suppressive effect on demand. Aluminum ingot destocking has been continuously hindered, and the proportion of molten aluminum has continued to decline. Aluminum prices continue to be strong but face resistance when rising. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum is expected to narrow [2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell slightly, while Shanghai nickel rose. In terms of inventory, both LME and SHFE inventories decreased. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is showing a weakening trend, with the stainless - steel market being sluggish. In the new energy industrial chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming apparent, and nickel prices are still running weakly, but attention should be paid to macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The US Department of Labor will not release the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report will be postponed. The Fed is divided on a December interest rate cut but almost unanimously agrees to end balance - sheet reduction. Copper demand is slowly recovering, but inventory accumulation and high prices may restrict future price increases. Without unexpected events, copper prices will oscillate at a high level with low volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy have different trends. The alumina futures market has a narrow - range correction. The macro - sentiment is warming, but high prices suppress demand. Aluminum ingot destocking is difficult, and the proportion of molten aluminum is decreasing. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum [2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell slightly, and Shanghai nickel rose. Inventory decreased, the nickel - iron to stainless - steel industrial chain is weak, and the new energy industrial chain has raw material supply tightness. Primary nickel inventory pressure is high, and nickel prices are weak [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 19, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 115 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2522 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 19, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased. SHFE total inventory increased by 1564 tons, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 19, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 750 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 793 tons, and social nickel inventory increased by 3981 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.3%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 19, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.8%. SHFE inventory increased by 266 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: There are charts showing the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - and Far - Month Spread**: There are charts showing the near - and far - month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: There are charts showing the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: There are charts showing the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: There are charts showing the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 4. Introduction of the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a junior investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - Zhu Xi: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].