20260122申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低0.85%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽 环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长； 家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求预期转向缺口，乐观情绪释 | | | 放后，铜价可能阶段性回调。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收低0.21%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长 | | | 。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产 | | | 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，在有色整体乐观情绪释放后，锌价可 | | | 能阶段性回调。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Copper, it fell below the 1 million RMB mark last night and rebounded with increased positions today, with the main contract price closing above the 1.01 million RMB mark at the end of the session. The macro - atmosphere improved today, and both commodities and the stock market strengthened. On the industrial side, downstream purchasing willingness increased, and the monthly spread rebounded slightly. Technically, continue to monitor the long - short battle at the 1 million RMB mark [6]. - For Shanghai Aluminum, it rebounded with increased positions today, and the main contract price returned to the 24,000 RMB mark. The macro - atmosphere improved, and both commodities and the stock market strengthened. On the industrial side, the weak reality pattern remained unchanged, and the monthly spread continued to be weak. Keep an eye on the long - short battle at the 24,000 RMB mark [7]. - For Shanghai Nickel, it rebounded with reduced positions today, and the main contract price closed above the 143,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The macro - atmosphere improved, and both commodities and the stock market strengthened. On the industrial side, port inventories of nickel ore decreased seasonally from a high level, while exchange nickel inventories continued to accumulate at a high level. Technically, the nickel price has repeatedly bottomed out and rebounded below the 140,000 RMB mark in the short term, indicating strong technical support [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In December, copper cable exports covered 31 provinces, with the proportion of Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang increasing. Looking forward to January, affected by pre - Spring Festival stocking and logistics factors, enterprises will accelerate order delivery, and the "pre - holiday rush" is expected to drive a moderate increase in export volume [10]. - **Aluminum**: As of January 20, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $65.86 per ton, down $0.08 from the previous trading day, mainly due to the decline in caustic soda prices. Some prices of imported bauxite remained flat, while some decreased. For domestic bauxite, due to bad weather, some mines in the northern region had short - term production cuts and transportation disruptions, and the supply remained tight in the short term, with prices expected to remain stable. In the import market, the intended transaction prices of both buyers and sellers decreased compared with the previous period, the market was quiet, and some alumina plants were cautious in their procurement plans [11]. - **Nickel**: On January 21, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 139,800 - 150,000 RMB per ton, with an average price of 144,900 RMB per ton, down 1,450 RMB per ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 RMB per ton, with an average premium of 9,000 RMB per ton, up 750 RMB per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 100 - 600 RMB per ton [12]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Charts consist of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

1月21日，国内期市有色金属板块互有涨跌。其中，沪锡期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报 415760.00元/吨，涨幅达5.12%。 宏观面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，中国财政部：2026年财政总体支出力度"只增不减"，政府负债率 依然较低。欧洲议会冻结美欧贸易协议批准程序。 基本面来看，西南期货分析称，矿端方面仍旧偏紧，佤邦复产进度推进缓慢，预计大量产出时间延后， 目前国内加工费低位，冶炼厂亏损且原料库存进一步缩紧，开工率低于正常水平，进口方面印尼严打非 法矿山，或影响后续产出及出口，供应方面总体偏紧。 需求方面，五矿期货指出，上周沪锡期货价格大幅拉升，显著抑制下游采购意愿，目前企业普遍以刚需 少量跟进为主，控制库存规模，现货流通未见明显释放，高升水格局下市场成交清淡，部分加工企业开 工出现明显下滑。 后市来看，新湖期货表示，短期基本面缺乏有力驱动，盘面更多受宏观情绪影响，或反复震荡。中期看 供应仍有一定缺口，向上趋势不改，操作上建议回调偏多对待。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on January 21, 2026, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, equilibrium price ratios, and profit margins [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 21, 2026, the domestic spot price was 100,660, the LME price was 13,030, with a ratio of 7.72; the three - month domestic price was 101,430, the LME price was 12,929, with a ratio of 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.89, with a profit of - 1773.40, and the profit for spot export was 1409.82 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24,340, the LME price was 3181, with a ratio of 7.65; the three - month domestic price was 24,455, the LME price was 3225, with a ratio of 5.33. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, with a profit of - 2114.93 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 23,680, the LME price was 3132, with a ratio of 7.56; the three - month domestic price was 23,995, the LME price was 3145, with a ratio of 7.60. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, with a profit of - 2388.30 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 139,850, the LME price was 17,710, with a ratio of 7.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.99, with a profit of 1929.60 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,000, the LME price was 2012, with a ratio of 8.45; the three - month domestic price was 17,285, the LME price was 2058, with a ratio of 11.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.51, with a profit of - 125.66 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 240, 440, 550, and 510 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 607, 1112, 1626, and 2140 respectively [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 0, 45, 70, and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225, 356, 487, and 618 respectively [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were - 75, - 30, 15, and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 231, 363, 495, and 628 respectively [3] - **Lead**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 100, 160, 190, and 195 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 317, 424, and 531 respectively [3] - **Nickel**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were - 760, - 490, - 240, and - 260 respectively [3] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was 1890, and the theoretical spread was 8149 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spread between the current - month contract and the spot was 315, the theoretical spread was 582; the spread between the next - month contract and the spot was 555, the theoretical spread was 1172 [3] - **Zinc**: The spread between the current - month contract and the spot was 70, the theoretical spread was 193; the spread between the next - month contract and the spot was 70, the theoretical spread was 335 [3] - **Lead**: The spread between the current - month contract and the spot was 125, the theoretical spread was 185; the spread between the next - month contract and the spot was 225, the theoretical spread was 298 [3] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 21, 2026, the cross - variety price ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 4.15, 4.23, 5.87, 0.98, 1.39, and 0.71 respectively; in London (three - continuous contracts), they were 4.02, 4.10, 6.29, 0.98, 1.53, and 0.64 respectively [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Today, Shanghai copper's main contract price approached the 100,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The commodity market sentiment weakened, and the non - ferrous sector declined across the board. The traditional downstream is resistant to high copper prices. It is expected that the purchasing demand may recover next week. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 RMB mark [5]. - Today, Shanghai aluminum's main contract price fell below the 24,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The commodity market sentiment weakened, and the non - ferrous sector declined across the board. The downstream is cautious about aluminum prices above 24,000 RMB. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, and the monthly spread continues to weaken. There is strong technical pressure, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 RMB mark [6]. - Today, the nickel price showed a downward trend, and the main contract price fell to the 140,000 RMB mark. The short - term macro - environment cooled, and non - ferrous metals declined across the board. The expectation of supply contraction in Indonesian mines continues to support the price, but the pattern of strong expectation and weak reality in the industry remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 140,000 RMB mark [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - On January 16, the raw material inventory of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 2.02% week - on - week, and the finished product inventory increased by 5.77% week - on - week. The downstream market is cautious, and the new order volume is still at a low level. The copper cable operating rate decreased by 0.59 percentage points to 55.99% week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [9]. Aluminum - On January 16, the total inventory of bauxite in 10 domestic ports decreased by 390,000 tons compared with the previous week [10]. Nickel - On January 16, the upstream quotation of high - nickel pig iron was maintained at 1050 - 1100 RMB/nickel point, and the downstream steel mills' procurement was cautious. The significant price increase does not match the actual demand, and there is little trading in the market [11]. 2. Related Charts Copper - The report provides charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][16]. Aluminum - The report provides charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - The report provides charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price in the night session first declined and then rose, closing up 0.05%. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has decreased month - on - month, it generally continues to grow at a high rate. The supply disruption of mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a shortage, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price in the night session closed up 0.14%. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metal Price Movements - Copper price in the night session closed up 0.05%, zinc price closed up 0.14% [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - For copper, concentrate supply is tight, smelting output has a high - growth trend, and power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak. Mine supply disruptions lead to a supply - demand gap expectation [2] - For zinc, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting output grows, galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth slows, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2] Market Data - **Domestic Futures and Basis**: Copper's domestic previous - day futures closing price is 102,200 yuan/ton, basis is - 120 yuan/ton; aluminum's is 24,155 yuan/ton and - 140 yuan/ton; zinc's is 25,050 yuan/ton and - 45 yuan/ton; nickel's is 145,400 yuan/ton and - 1,860 yuan/ton; lead's is 17,450 yuan/ton and - 140 yuan/ton; tin's is 423,780 yuan/ton and - 14,290 yuan/ton [2] - **LME Data**: Copper's previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 13,149 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is 37.60 dollars/ton, and LME inventory is 141,625 tons with a daily change of 75 tons; aluminum's is 3,172 dollars/ton, 1.42 dollars/ton, 492,000 tons and - 2,000 tons; zinc's is 3,314 dollars/ton, - 27.62 dollars/ton, 106,725 tons and - 175 tons; nickel's is 18,590 dollars/ton, - 187.88 dollars/ton, 284,658 tons and 510 tons; lead's is 2,097 dollars/ton, - 43.58 dollars/ton, 215,200 tons and - 3,725 tons; tin's is 52,775 dollars/ton, - 114.50 dollars/ton, 5,930 tons and 0 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Zinc: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Lithium carbonate: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper decreased in price with reduced positions. The market digested Trump's attitude towards tariffs on key minerals, and the copper warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 13,378 tons to 162,717 tons. It is advisable to continue the previous strategy of selling call options at high positions [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan decreased. The aluminum rod processing fee remained negative, and the social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The short - term fundamentals deviate, and speculation should be cautious. Aluminum plants can consider participating in selling hedging. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, and the market activity is low. The domestic alumina production capacity remains around 95 million tons, and the market is in significant surplus. When the spread is low, short positions can be taken on rallies [3] Zinc - LME's decision not to accept the zinc brand warehouse receipt registrations of two South Korean enterprises since April 14, 2026 triggered a short - term bullish market. However, this news did not change the global zinc supply - demand relationship. There is a need to reduce volatility in the zinc market recently. Opportunities to sell call options with a strike price of 27,000 for the near - term contract can be considered, and short positions can be taken on rallies [4] Silver and Stainless Steel - Shanghai silver is strongly oscillating, and the stainless - steel market is active. The upstream prices are starting to rebound. The market is currently dominated by policy sentiment. In the short term, downstream buyers can continue to buy at low prices [7] Tin - Shanghai tin is oscillating at a high level with reduced positions. The warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. Although there was a landslide accident in the Alphmin mining area, the market mainly trades on sentiment. High - volatility risks should be noted, and call options with high strike prices can be sold near expiration [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate dived and then rebounded during trading. The sales strategy of upstream lithium salt factories is changing. The overall demand is resilient. The market has seen its first week of inventory increase, but the downstream inventory is decreasing rapidly. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, but short - term uncertainties are extremely high [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon opened low and closed high. The market has expectations for the technological transformation of 12,500 kva furnaces. The downstream demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon is oscillating around 48,000 yuan per ton, and funds are continuously flowing out. The trading logic has changed, and the market sentiment has cooled significantly. Participation should be cautious [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in prices of non-ferrous metals, particularly tin, copper, and aluminum, driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors, highlighting potential investment opportunities and market trends in the commodities sector [5][6][7]. Group 1: Tin Market Analysis - The main tin futures contract on the domestic futures market hit a new high, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in three trading days [3]. - Tin prices are influenced by expectations of insufficient production recovery in Myanmar, alongside strong demand forecasts from sectors like AI computing and photovoltaic new energy [5]. - Current spot tin prices have also reached historical highs, with a significant daily increase of 7.6% to 412,000 yuan/ton [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risks - The current market shows a divergence between futures and spot prices, with high tin prices leading to a cautious trading environment, causing some traders and downstream processing companies to halt external quotations [6]. - There is a growing risk of a price correction if speculative funds withdraw, as high prices are suppressing end-user demand and leading to a slowdown in actual transactions [6]. Group 3: Copper and Aluminum Price Trends - Copper and aluminum prices have also reached historical highs, with aluminum prices at 24,330 yuan/ton, up 4.38% from early January, and copper prices at 103,185 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.8% [7][8]. - The tightening supply of copper is attributed to various challenges, including declining ore grades and production disruptions, which are expected to maintain upward pressure on prices [8]. - The aluminum market is facing supply constraints due to production limits and anticipated reductions in output, which are contributing to rising price expectations [7][9]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Long-term demand for copper is expected to remain strong due to emerging industries such as electric vehicles and energy storage, which will likely drive significant increases in consumption [8]. - The aluminum market is also projected to see stable demand growth, supported by macroeconomic narratives and the attractiveness of non-ferrous metals as quality assets [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper increased in volume, with the open interest rising to 700,000 contracts during the session. The main contract price broke through the previous high during the session but fell back in the afternoon. As the delivery approaches, the discount of the 01 contract has weakened significantly, reflecting a decline in short - term spot market purchasing willingness. Although silver has been rising continuously in the short term, the upward movement of copper prices has slowed down significantly, with insufficient capital - driven willingness. The futures price may fluctuate and wait for industrial follow - up [6]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell today. The main contract price approached the 25,000 - yuan mark during the session and dropped significantly with reduced positions in the afternoon. The short - term macro - atmosphere has cooled, and the willingness of long - position holders to close positions is strong. As the aluminum price has reached the 24,000 - yuan mark, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has increased significantly. Technically, it once broke through the 2021 high during the session but then fell back, and the reference for the resistance level remains valid [7]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rose and then fell today, with the open interest continuously decreasing. In the afternoon, the macro - atmosphere cooled, and most non - ferrous metals declined. Nickel has accumulated a gain of over 30% since its low in late December, and the short - term willingness of long - position holders to close positions is strong. The short - term amplitude of nickel prices has narrowed significantly, and the willingness of long - position holders to continue pushing up is insufficient. Industrially, the electrolytic nickel inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME have continued to rise, and the weak industrial reality pattern remains unchanged. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 140,000 - yuan mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The copper price maintained a strong trend during the session, but the refined copper rod industry had a dull transaction, with weak orders. Downstream buyers were cautious and mostly held a wait - and - see attitude, mainly making purchases based on rigid demand. As tomorrow is the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2601 contract, due to the continuous widening of the monthly spread, sellers have reduced their willingness to sell, and it is expected that the spot premium or discount to the current - month contract will remain strong tomorrow [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 14, 2026, it was reported that the aluminum ingot premium at major Japanese ports (MJP) in the first quarter of 2026 was $195 per ton, up $109 per ton from $86 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2025, a rise of 126.7% [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][16]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, overseas electrolytic aluminum exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel price trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical events, and policy changes. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the stock index fluctuated significantly. Although there were short - term rebounds, the overall market closed down. The basis of each variety continued to rise, and the discount of stock index futures continued to narrow, indicating that futures investors are still optimistic about the future market. It is recommended to go long on IC and IM on dips, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage on IM/IC 2606 + short ETF, and use bull spreads for options [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, but the market capital continued to converge, which put pressure on the short - end. In the short term, although market sentiment has recovered, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic. It is recommended to stop profit on previous long positions and then wait and see. For cash bond holders, they can consider selling hedges. For arbitrage, it is recommended to try shorting the basis of the 30 - year active bond [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply pressure increases, and the price of US soybeans continues to decline. It is recommended to have a short - term bearish view, conduct M79 reverse arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [25][26]. - **Sugar**: Both domestic and international sugar prices are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to expect international sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and domestic sugar prices to oscillate within a range. Consider buying at the lower end and selling at the upper end of the range, and sell put options [27][30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The US biodiesel sector is disturbed, and the price of US soybean oil has increased significantly. In the short term, the oil market oscillates with increased volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [31][33]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn report shows increased production, and the short - term price is weak. The spot price of corn is currently stable but may face pressure later. It is recommended to go long on the 03 US corn contract after it stabilizes, try short - selling the 03 corn contract, and widen the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts [35][36]. - **Hogs**: The overall slaughter increases, but the spot price continues to rise. It is recommended to have a short - selling view, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [37][38]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on the 05 peanut contract on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [39][41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand has improved, and the egg price is stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to expect the near - month contract to oscillate weakly, and consider going long on the far - month May contract on dips [42][45]. - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the apple price is firm. It is recommended to hold long positions in the May contract and short the October contract, and conduct long - May and short - October arbitrage [46][48][49]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales progress is fast, and the cotton price oscillates. It is recommended to expect the US cotton to oscillate in the short term, and go long on Zhengzhou cotton on dips [50][52]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products start to accumulate inventory, and the steel price continues to oscillate. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend, short the hot - rolled coil - coking coal ratio on rallies, and continue to hold the short - hot - rolled coil and long - rebar spread [55][56]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates sharply, and it is recommended to be cautious. It is expected to continue to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [57][59]. - **Iron Ore**: Market expectations are volatile, and the iron ore price is considered bearish at high levels. It is recommended to short lightly at high levels [60][63][64]. - **Ferroalloys**: Driven by cost, the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to expect a short - term strengthening trend due to improved supply - demand and cost factors, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [66][67][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Inflation is moderate, and geopolitical conflicts drive the prices of gold and silver to new highs. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the previous high at the end of December and in silver based on the support near the previous high on the 7th of this month [70][73][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The slowdown of CPI growth eases the macro - pressure on precious metals. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips, and be cautious about going long on palladium before the result of the 232 investigation is announced [75][76][77]. - **Copper**: Short - term fluctuations intensify, but the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton [78][79]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction between commodity sentiment and fundamentals expands price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It runs strongly with oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [83][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [87]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. It is recommended for conservative investors to wait and see, and for aggressive investors to hold short positions with strict position control [89][91]. - **Lead**: Take partial profit on long positions and raise the stop - loss line. It is recommended to take partial profit on profitable long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options appropriately [93][96]. - **Nickel**: It follows the correction of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to have a long - term long view after the correction stabilizes [97][98][99]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price. It is recommended to go long on dips after the correction stabilizes [99][101]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short on rallies. It is recommended to short on rallies as the medium - term demand is weak [102]. - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious due to the current vacuum period of spot trading [103][105]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk of over - rise increases. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average [106][107][109]. - **Tin**: The supply vulnerability is prominent, and the tin price reaches a new high. It is recommended to be vigilant against the selling pressure after the digestion of macro - positive sentiment [110][111][112]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: Maersk lowers the price for wk5, and there are still differences in the intensity of rush - shipping. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and conduct positive arbitrage on the 6 - 10 spread [113][114][115]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to drive the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and expect an oscillating and strengthening trend. Also, note that domestic gasoline is strong and diesel is weak, and the crude oil calendar spread is strong [116][118]. - **Asphalt**: Cost support is favorable, but supply and demand are weak. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [118][120]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend and hold the FU59 positive spread [121][124][125]. - **Natural Gas**: TTF/JKM rebounds, and HH oscillates weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the third - quarter TTF and JKM contracts and sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [126][127][129]. - **LPG**: There is a strong current situation and weak expectations. It is recommended to have a short - term long and long - term short view and pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event [129][132][133]. - **PX&PTA**: Downstream production cuts increase, and geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation and conduct positive arbitrage on the 3 and 5 contracts [133][134][135]. - **BZ&EB**: Pure benzene is expected to reduce supply, and styrene is boosted by exports. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for pure benzene and conduct long - styrene and short - pure - benzene arbitrage [136][137]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Downstream production cuts increase, and the price has limited upside. It is recommended to expect a weak oscillation and sell call options [138][140]. - **Short - Fiber**: The purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the processing margin is under pressure. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [140][142]. - **Bottle Chips**: Some maintenance device plans are announced. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [142][144]. - **Propylene**: It oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [144][146][147]. - **Plastic PP**: Hold long positions. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L 2605 contract, try to go long on the PP 2605 contract, and sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract [148][152]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda weakens. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend and wait and see [153][155]. - **PVC**: It mainly oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see [155][157]. - **Soda Ash**: It has a wide - range oscillation this week. It is recommended to short on rallies during the wide - range oscillation and sell out - of - the - money call options on the far - month high [158][160]. - **Glass**: The futures price falls. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation this week, short on rallies, conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage, and sell call options [160][164]. - **Methanol**: It runs firmly. It is recommended to avoid short positions and go long with attention to the Middle East situation [165][167]. - **Urea**: It runs weakly. It is recommended to short lightly and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread [167][169][170]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates widely at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions [172][174][175]. - **Log**: The spot price rebounds slightly. It is recommended for aggressive investors to buy a small amount of long positions and pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse arbitrage [176][178][179]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of cultural paper. It is recommended to wait and see and sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option [179][180][182]. - **Natural Rubber**: The import value of Thai rubber machinery decreases. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU 05 contract, try to go long on the NR 03 contract, and hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread [183][185]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The decline of the US dollar index sets a record. It is recommended to try to go long on the BR 03 contract and hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread [186][188].