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有色日报:镍增仓下行-20250818
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 10:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing below 79,000. The 9 - 10 spread increased. Domestically, the atmosphere is positive with rising stock indices, while overseas, the improving US - Russia relations maintain high market risk appetite. It's the off - season in China, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased by 11,800 tons on Monday compared to last Thursday. With macro - level benefits and weak industrial reality, the futures price will oscillate [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum dropped sharply in the morning and rebounded slightly in the afternoon, showing overall weak performance with decreasing positions. The non - ferrous sector oscillated weakly. Upstream bauxite port inventory, mid - stream electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and downstream aluminum rod inventory all decreased, which is beneficial for aluminum prices. As the peak season approaches, the futures price is expected to strengthen [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel decreased with increasing positions, and the main contract price approached the 120,000 mark. The non - ferrous sector oscillated weakly, and nickel prices were weaker than the sector. Nickel ore port inventory and SHFE inventory both increased, which is negative for nickel prices. The short - term commodity market atmosphere has cooled, and weak industrial support has led to a significant decline in nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [7]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 18, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 144,200 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the 11th and 11,800 tons compared to the 14th [9]. - **Aluminum**: From August 11 - 17, the domestic aluminum rod delivery volume was 49,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 18, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,300 - 123,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,650 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was - 50 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. Relevant Charts Copper - **Base difference, inventory, and other related charts**: Include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [12][14][15] Aluminum - **Base difference, inventory, and other related charts**: Include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina inventory, etc [25][27][29] Nickel - **Base difference, inventory, and other related charts**: Include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][40][41]
有色日报:有色午后走强-20250815
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 11:15
Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **沪铜**: The main contract price of Shanghai copper increased with rising positions and stood above the 79,000 mark again. In July, the added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The weakening of the US dollar index may support copper prices. The copper price shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, and the import window is open. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 79,000 mark [4]. - **沪铝**: Shanghai aluminum maintained a volatile trend with the open interest rising to 600,000 contracts. The upstream bauxite continued to accumulate inventory, the intermediate electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, and the downstream demand is expected to pick up. With neutral macro and positive industry factors, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - **沪镍**: Shanghai nickel showed a weak and volatile trend with the open interest rising to 200,000 contracts. The main contract price approached the 120,000 mark. The continuous increase in nickel ore port inventory exerts pressure on nickel prices. With neutral macro and weak industry support, pay attention to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 15th, the average spot premium in Shandong region reported a discount of 140 yuan/ton. Downstream processing enterprises continued the rigid - demand procurement mode, and the terminal demand did not improve significantly, with the market activity remaining flat [8]. - **Aluminum**: As of August 15th, the total bauxite inventory in 9 domestic ports reached 23.85 million tons, an increase of 960,000 tons from the previous week. On August 14th, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the 7th and 54,000 tons from the 11th [9]. - **Nickel**: On August 15th, the main reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,750 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +450 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,900 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,650 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,000 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and alumina inventory [24][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].
有色套利早报-20250815
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 08:54
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 15, 2025, providing data for investors to analyze potential arbitrage opportunities. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 15, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,415, the LME price was 9,685, and the ratio was 8.22. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of - 184.92 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,510, the LME price was 2,816, and the ratio was 7.99. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.66, with a profit of - 1,868.19 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,710, the LME price was 2,607, and the ratio was 7.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.46, with a profit of - 1,366.84 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 121,500, the LME price was 14,964, and the ratio was 8.12. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 1,860.66 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,650, the LME price was 1,943, and the ratio was 8.60. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, with a profit of - 515.45 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 420, - 440, - 450, and - 450 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 499, 896, 1302, and 1707 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 120, - 105, - 95, and - 110, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 60, - 85, - 125, and - 180, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 447, and 563 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were - 100, - 80, - 70, and - 45, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 315, 420, and 525 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 1280, - 1140, - 950, and - 660 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1690, and the theoretical spread was 5542 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 15 and - 435, and the theoretical spreads were 75 and 453 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 90 and - 30, and the theoretical spreads were 65 and 196 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 220 and 120, and the theoretical spreads were 108 and 219 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 15, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - contract) were 3.51, 3.81, 4.70, 0.92, 1.23, and 0.75 respectively; for London (three - contract), they were 3.43, 3.73, 4.91, 0.92, 1.32, and 0.70 [5].
宝城期货有色周度数据-20250815
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 07:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the non - ferrous metals sector declined slightly, while the trading volume increased slightly. Copper showed strong performance in the non - ferrous metals sector due to its strong financial attributes and the decline of the US dollar index, which was beneficial to copper prices. The trading volume of lead decreased significantly, accompanied by a rebound in futures prices, indicating a strong willingness of previous short - sellers to close their positions. Non - ferrous metal inventories are generally in a state of high overseas and low domestic, reflecting the strong domestic and weak overseas demand. Currently, the domestic industry is in the off - season, with the inventory of upstream mines rising and the middle and downstream showing a trend of inventory accumulation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The report provides charts on copper futures price trends, 1 electrolytic copper premium and discount seasonality, copper concentrate port inventory, copper product开工率, domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) [6][11][8]. Aluminum - It includes charts on aluminum futures price trends, aluminum premium and discount seasonality, bauxite port inventory, aluminum product开工率, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) [18][23][20]. Zinc - The report presents charts on zinc futures price trends, zinc premium and discount seasonality, zinc concentrate port inventory, galvanizing开工率, refined zinc social inventory, and galvanized sheet total inventory [30][40][31]. Lead - Charts on lead futures price trends, lead premium and discount seasonality, lead concentrate port inventory, lead开工率, lead social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) are provided [42][46][43]. Tin - It has charts on tin futures price trends, tin premium and discount seasonality, tin concentrate price, tin ore processing fees, refined tin social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (LME) [54][60][56]. Nickel - The report includes charts on nickel futures price trends, nickel spot - futures spread seasonality, nickel ore port inventory, nickel iron开工率, nickel social inventory, and overseas futures inventory (LME) [66][72][68].
有色商品日报-20250815
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 05:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper showed a weakening trend. The US July PPI data dampened market expectations of significant Fed rate - cuts. Domestically, the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. There are still differences in the market's view of US copper prospects. With US copper over - stocking, there is a risk of inventory relocation, which may impact global copper prices. However, the approaching "Golden September" season and anti - cut - throat competition policy expectations provide some support, and the price is likely to maintain a balance between bulls and bears for now [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina was weakening, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy were strengthening. In August, the profit in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. There is an expectation of over - supply due to the resumption of alumina production, but short - term cost support limits the decline. The signing of an aluminum cooperation agreement between India and Russia may lead to higher US tariffs on them, increasing trade cost concerns. As "Golden September" approaches, the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum is showing signs of change, and the aluminum price is in a stage of trading time for space with an expectation of recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak season [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. Inventory increased slightly. The raw material prices of stainless steel were differentiated, and the market sentiment improved with continuous inventory digestion. Overall, the fundamentals changed little and showed a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: US July PPI rose to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest since February 2025, and 0.9% month - on - month, the largest since June 2022. Domestically, the M2 - M1 gap shrank. Market views on US copper vary due to over - stocking. The approaching "Golden September" and anti - cut - throat competition policies support the price, and it maintains a balance between bulls and bears [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina (AO2509) closed at 3230 yuan/ton, down 0.55%, with an increase in positions. Shanghai aluminum (AL2509) closed at 20760 yuan/ton, up 0.67%, with a decrease in positions. Aluminum alloy (AD2511) closed at 20175 yuan/ton, up 0.22%, with a decrease in positions. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3248 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot changed from discount to premium. Aluminum rod and bar processing fees showed different trends. In August, the profit shifted from upstream to downstream. The resumption of alumina production increased over - supply expectations, but cost support limited the decline. The India - Russia aluminum cooperation agreement may lead to higher US tariffs, and the approaching "Golden September" led to early stocking in some sectors, with the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum showing signs of change [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 1.25% to 15050 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.19% to 120620 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 42 tons to 211140 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 142 tons to 20720 tons. The LME0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium was stable at 400 yuan/ton. The price of nickel ore in Indonesia decreased slightly. The raw material prices of stainless steel were differentiated, with the nickel - iron transaction price rising. The social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 2.48% week - on - week, and the market sentiment improved. The domestic nickel inventory increased slightly in August, and the overall fundamentals showed little change and were volatile [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 79385 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 227 yuan/ton. The inventory in LME and COMEX increased, and the total social inventory remained unchanged. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the import loss of the active contract increased by 220 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16750 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingot in East China decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The prices of lead concentrates and processing fees in some regions decreased slightly. The LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the spot changed from discount to a 10 - yuan/ton premium. The prices of raw materials such as aluminum ore and alumina remained stable. The processing fees of some downstream products changed. The LME inventory increased by 1050 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3913 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 19 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton. The prices of some nickel - related products remained stable or changed slightly. The LME inventory increased by 42 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory increased by 444 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 680 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.6% to 22540 yuan/ton. The LmeS3 price remained stable. The domestic and import zinc premiums remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 1025 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory increased by 1.11 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.6% to 268590 yuan/ton, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The prices of tin concentrates increased. The LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories increased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts 1 - 6 show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts 7 - 12 show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][16][18]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts 13 - 18 show the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts 19 - 24 show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts 25 - 30 show the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts 31 - 36 show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the 2016 Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team title of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [47]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations, and has written many in - depth reports [47]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. Focused on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, she tracks the new energy industry chain and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations, and has written many in - depth reports [48].
有色商品日报-20250813
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 06:31
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper fluctuated higher. US inflation pressure is controllable, strengthening the expectation of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. There are differences in views on the future of US copper. The domestic "Golden September" peak - season expectation and anti - involution policy expectations support prices, and copper maintains a relative balance between bulls and bears [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. In August, the profit in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. There are signs of a turn in the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum, and the aluminum price is in a stage of trading time for space with an expectation of continued recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak - season guidance [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. The overall fundamentals changed little and showed a volatile operation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The US 7 - month CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI reached 3.1%. The market has different views on US copper due to over - inventory. Domestic factors support prices, and copper is in a balanced state [1]. - **Aluminum**: AO2509 closed at 3287 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase, AL2509 at 20800 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase, and AD2511 at 20200 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3248 yuan/ton. There are changes in the supply - demand and profit distribution of the aluminum industry [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.23% to 15360 dollars/ton, Shanghai nickel rose 0.2% to 122870 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 450 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The overall fundamentals are stable [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Aluminum**: The spot premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. The total inventory decreased by 3913 tons, and the alumina inventory increased by 3.9 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 600 yuan/ton. The total nickel inventory increased by 444 tons, and the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.1%, and the social inventory increased by 0.77 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.9%, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by 22.16 dollars/ton [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [8][10][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [16][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate [43][45][47]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: The current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: An analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon, providing timely policy interpretations and writing in - depth reports [50]. - Zhu Xi: An analyst focusing on lithium and nickel, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [51].
有色及贵金属日度数据简报-20250813
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:22
Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides daily data briefings on non - ferrous metals and precious metals on August 12, 2025, including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin [1] Group 2: Gold (AU) - The closing price of SHFE gold主力 contract was 776.04 yuan/gram on July 15, 2025, with a change of - 3.44 yuan compared to the previous day, - 3.44 yuan compared to the day before, and - 4.36 yuan compared to last week [1] - The closing price of COMEX gold主力 contract was 3393.70 dollars/ounce, down 34.90 dollars from the previous day, 64.50 dollars from the day before, and up 63.20 dollars from last week [1] - The London gold spot price was 3395.63 dollars/ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up 26.08 dollars from last week [1] Group 3: Silver (AG) - The closing price of SHFE silver主力 contract was 9187 yuan/kilogram on August 12, 2025, down 23 yuan from the previous day, up 112 yuan from last month, and down 38 yuan from the day before [1] - The closing price of COMEX silver主力 contract was 37.65 dollars/ounce, down 0.19 dollars from last week, down 0.86 dollars from last month, and down 0.34 dollars from the previous day [1] - The London silver spot price was 38.29 dollars/ounce, unchanged from the previous day, down 0.71 dollars from last week, and up 1.14 dollars from last month [1] Group 4: Copper (CU, BC) - The closing price of SHFE copper (CU)主力 contract was 79020 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 930 yuan from last week, up 440 yuan from last month, and unchanged from the previous day [1] - LME copper 3M closing price (15:00) was 9770.50 dollars/ton, up 4.50 dollars from the previous day, up 46.00 dollars from last week, and up 124.50 dollars from last month [1] - LME copper仓单 inventory was 155700 tons, down 150 tons from the previous day, up 16125 tons from last week, and up 46075 tons from last month [1] Group 5: Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - The closing price of SHFE aluminum (AL)主力 contract was 20735 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 35 yuan from the previous day, up 175 yuan from last week, and up 305 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of alumina (AO)主力 contract was 81 yuan/ton, down 143 yuan from last week and down 3308 yuan from last month [1] - LME aluminum 3M closing price (15:00) was 2605.00 dollars/ton, down 12.00 dollars from the previous day, up 12.50 dollars from last week, and up 31.00 dollars from last month [1] Group 6: Zinc (ZN) - The closing price of SHFE zinc (ZN)主力 contract was 22630 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 250 yuan from last week, up 545 yuan from last month, and up 40 yuan from the previous day [1] - LME zinc 3M closing price (15:00) was 2829 dollars/ton, up 57 dollars from last week, up 118 dollars from last month, and down 11 dollars from the previous day [1] - LME zinc仓单 inventory was 79550 tons, down 875 tons from the previous day, down 9675 tons from last week, and down 41800 tons from last month [1] Group 7: Lead (PB) - The closing price of SHFE lead (PB)主力 contract was 16915 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 30 yuan from last week, up 140 yuan from last month, and down 15 yuan from the previous day [1] - LME lead 3M closing price (15:00) was 2005.00 dollars/ton, down 5.00 dollars from the previous day, up 37.00 dollars from last week, and up 16.50 dollars from last month [1] - LME lead仓单 inventory was 262250 tons, down 3550 tons from the previous day, down 6350 tons from last week, and down 6975 tons from last month [1] Group 8: Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - The closing price of SHFE nickel (NI)主力 contract was 122440 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 1530 yuan from the previous day, up 3060 yuan from last week, and up 310 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of stainless steel (SS)主力 contract was 13200 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from the previous day, up 240 yuan from last week, and up 505 yuan from last month [1] - LME nickel 3M closing price (15:00) was 15295 dollars/ton, up 40 dollars from the previous day, up 285 dollars from last week, and up 180 dollars from last month [1] Group 9: Tin (SN) - The closing price of SHFE tin (SN)主力 contract was 270200 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 2710 yuan from the previous day, up 6960 yuan from last week, and up 1820 yuan from last month [1] - LME tin 3M closing price (15:00) was 33790 dollars/ton, up 50 dollars from the previous day, up 440 dollars from last week, and up 480 dollars from last month [1] - LME tin仓单 inventory was - 125 tons, down 230 tons from the previous day, up 1750 tons from last week, and up 40 tons from last month [1]
有色牛市正在启动,大成有色ETF(159980.SZ)活跃上行,跟踪指数再次确立日线级别看涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 03:48
Core Viewpoint - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) is experiencing upward momentum, supported by positive trends in the underlying nonferrous metal index and significant capital inflows, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 12, 11:15, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) increased by 0.18% [1]. - The underlying index, the Nonferrous Metal Index (IMCI.SHF), has established a bullish trend on both daily and weekly levels [1]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 1.207 billion yuan, marking a three-month high [1]. Group 2: Capital Inflows - As of August 11, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) saw net capital inflows in 4 out of the last 5 trading days, totaling 79.6212 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Economic Context - Citic Construction Investment Securities noted that poor economic and employment data from the U.S., along with the nomination of a new Federal Reserve governor by Trump, has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September [1]. - The ongoing domestic "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize production factors, enhancing profitability across various sectors and improving market expectations, which is favorable for the transmission of rising metal prices to downstream industries [1]. - The valuation of the industrial metals sector is currently low, suggesting potential for upward correction [1].
国投期货有色金属日报-20250808
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 12:03
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a certain direction but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term multi/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, for observation only) [1] - Lead: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market shows different trends and investment opportunities for various non - ferrous metals. For each metal, factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels are considered to make investment suggestions [1][2][3] Summary by Metals Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper continue to show a fluctuating positive line. The current copper price is 78,530 yuan, with a premium of 120 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 40 yuan in Guangdong. The copper market trading is dull, and it has basically been operating near the MA60 moving average this week. The market is not strongly affected by the new round of US tariffs and mainly tracks macro - economic indicators. The number of initial jobless claims in the US soared last week. Hold previous short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuates in a narrow range, and the spot discount in East China remains at 50 yuan. Consumption is in the off - season recently, but the output of aluminum rods has increased month - on - month. The peak of aluminum ingot social inventory may appear in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot quotation remains flat at 19,800 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor, but it has certain toughness relative to the aluminum price. Pay attention to the possible narrowing of the spread between the spot and AL. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the balance is in a surplus state. The price of bauxite in Guinea is firm during the rainy season, corresponding to a cost of 3000 - 3100 yuan in Shanxi and Henan in China. Alumina is under pressure to fluctuate, but the downward space is also relatively limited [2] Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The expectations of domestic fiscal policy and the Fed's interest rate cut are relatively positive, and there is insufficient resonance between the macro - situation and the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc has dropped to 209,000 lots, and the capital congestion has significantly declined. Fundamentally, it is strong overseas and weak at home. The rebound of LME zinc drives the domestic market, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery at high prices is insufficient. The zinc price rebound is regarded as under pressure. Wait for the opportunity to short - allocate above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - The lead price fluctuates at a low level, and the capital trading is relatively light. It is difficult to purchase waste batteries at low prices, and the recycled lead producers are reluctant to sell due to losses. The refined - scrap price difference is 25 yuan/ton. The downstream's willingness to take delivery is poor, and the rigid demand tends to purchase primary lead with higher cost - effectiveness. There are limited short - term contradictions in the lead market. The overall supply of lead ingots in August is expected to increase month - on - month. Some primary lead smelters have regular maintenance plans from the end of August to the beginning of September. The peak - season consumption still needs to be verified by social inventory. Wait for the evolution of contradictions. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounds, and the market trading is active. As the domestic anti - involution theme comes to an end, nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will accelerate its return to fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel iron is quoted at 915.6 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has significantly weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel - iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Pay attention to the signs of the end of de - stocking. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and actively intervene in short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuates and closes with a negative line at 268,000 yuan, and the current tin price is reported at 268,000 yuan, with a real - time premium of 170 yuan over the delivery month. The overseas tin price is supported by low visible inventory and the decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, pay attention to the changes in high social inventory under the game between the major smelters' maintenance plans and weak consumption. Observe or choose the opportunity for short - term long positions [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounds with increasing volume, and the market trading is active. The price structure shows weakness in the near - term contracts, and the spot price is quoted at 72,000 yuan. The downstream's inquiry behavior is active, and the spot market trading has improved. The total market inventory has slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious, and the downstream has increased the intensity of replenishment during the price correction. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 745 US dollars, which has significantly followed the decline of the lithium carbonate price. The smelting output has decreased by 8% week - on - week. After the significant rebound of the lithium carbonate futures price, the game value has decreased. Look for high - level short - selling positions [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon closes slightly higher, and the spot - end manufacturers' quotations remain stable. Currently, the market supply pressure is still significant. It is expected that the output in August will increase by 21,700 - 31,700 tons month - on - month. Among them, the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan are continuously increasing, and large - scale factories in Xinjiang also have复产 arrangements. Although both polysilicon and organic silicon downstream have production - increasing expectations, the expected increment is still less than that of industrial silicon. There are still policy expectations, and combined with the large decline in the previous disk, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures touched above 49,000 yuan/ton during the day and then rebounded, closing in the positive territory at the end of the session. In the spot market, the average price of polysilicon multi - product feedstock remains stable at 47,000 yuan/ton (SMM). The upward pressure is large, the downstream component price has decreased, and the terminal still resists high prices. Overall, there are still policy expectations, the spot price increase has slowed down, and the trend may maintain range - bound fluctuations [10]
有色商品日报(2025年8月8日)-20250808
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose and then fell, down 0.04% to $9,670.5/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.03% to CNY 78,360/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, but the loss narrowed. With weak overseas economic data and concerns about overseas demand, copper prices were generally weak. However, the expectation of the peak season in September would limit the decline [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of mining rights increased supply expectations. With the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of Indonesian imports, the pressure of alumina surplus increased. The production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan continued to rise, and inventory accumulation might continue, putting downward pressure on aluminum prices [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.1% to $15,115/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.14% to CNY 121,180/ton. In the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened. Fundamentally, there were support from ferronickel and intermediate product prices below and demand suppression above, showing a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The market focused on tariff negotiations between the US and other economies. There were concerns about US debt. Domestically, policies and anti - involution expectations were important trading considerations. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, Comex copper increased by 174 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons. During the off - season, terminal orders were insufficient, and processing plants' procurement was just for刚需 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina futures AO2509 closed at CNY 3,170/ton, down 2.28%, with an increase in positions.沪铝 AL2509 closed at CNY 20,670/ton, down 0.46%, with a decrease in positions. The spot price of alumina fell, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. The processing fees of some aluminum products changed [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The price of ferronickel increased, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreased for four consecutive weeks, but the de - stocking speed slowed down. The domestic inventory of primary nickel decreased slightly, and the output in August was expected to increase by 2% to 33,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On August 7, 2025, the price of flat - copper rose by CNY 155 to CNY 78,470/ton, and the premium rose by CNY 15. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by CNY 100 to CNY 73,100/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by CNY 10 to CNY 16,850/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 800 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 29 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes increased. The spot premium decreased by CNY 10 to - CNY 50/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,575 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,737 tons. The alumina inventory increased by 39,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by CNY 50 to CNY 123,250/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The weekly nickel inventory increased by 299 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.9% to CNY 22,530/ton. The weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 793 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,275 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.41 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.3% to CNY 267,530/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 15 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 254 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the LME from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the SHFE from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [48]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [48]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [49].