商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 10 日 棉花：继续受市场情绪影响 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | -0.23% | | | CF2509 CY2509 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 13,495 19,740 | 1.01% 0.56% | 13465 19695 | -0.22% | | | ICE美棉07 | 美分/磅 | 65.97 | 0.59% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 358,684 | 44,190 | 775,318 | 24,946 | | | CY2509 | 手 | 5,612 | -1,999 | 14,414 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日 ...

棉花：市场情绪好转带动郑棉期货反弹 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2509 | 元/吨 | 13,360 | 0.87% | 13435 | 0.56% | | | CY2509 | 元/吨 | 19,630 | 0.18% | 19685 | 0.28% | | | ICE美棉07 | 美分/磅 | 65.58 | 0.40% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 314,494 | 132,900 | 750,372 | 12,557 | | | CY2509 | 手 | 7,918 | -1,999 | 12,592 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) oscillated and then rebounded slightly this week, influenced by external markets. The basis in Xinjiang strengthened, and textile enterprises had small profits, strongly supporting the spot market. However, consumption was weak, with no rush - to - export situation in the downstream. The operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises declined significantly, and the inventory of grey cloth costs continued to rise. The market lacked continuous upward momentum but was supported by low inventory and a strong Xinjiang basis, so the downward space was limited. In the short term, Zhengmian may remain in an oscillatory state [53]. - Internationally, the market generally lacked drivers and maintained an oscillatory trend. As of June 1st, the U.S. cotton planting rate was 66%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and lower than the five - year average of 69%. The U.S. cotton planting progress was still behind, but the lag had narrowed. Some cotton had started to bud, and the early excellent - good rate was lower year - on - year. U.S. cotton export data improved, with 316,100 bales shipped in the week ending May 29th, up 15% from the previous week and 1% from the four - week average. Overall, the short - term price space for cotton was limited [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) cotton futures prices oscillated this week, with a weekly increase of 0.64%. ICE cotton futures prices had a slight oscillation, with a weekly increase of 0.38% [10]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price indices showed mixed trends. The 3128 index increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to last week, while the 2129 index decreased by 17 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In April, 60,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 280,000 tons [17]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In April, the commercial cotton inventory was 4.1526 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 183,300 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 954,200 tons, a year - on - year increase [26]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In April, the yarn inventory was 20.8 days, a year - on - year decrease of 2.88 days. The grey cloth inventory was 30.17 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.34 days [30]. 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices declined. The price of 10 - count rotor - spun cotton yarn decreased by 80 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn remained unchanged [35]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 229. There were 10,939 warehouse receipts and 369 valid forecasts, totaling 11,308 [39]. 3.1.8 U.S. Cotton Export Situation - As of May 29th, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 109,800 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 39,000 bales [42][47]. 3.1.9 U.S. Weather Situation - Not elaborated in terms of its impact on the market in the provided content, only the data source is given [52]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - The domestic market lacks continuous upward momentum but has limited downward space due to low inventory and a strong Xinjiang basis. Short - term Zhengmian may remain in an oscillatory state. The international market also lacks drivers and maintains an oscillatory trend, with the U.S. cotton planting progress still behind but the lag narrowing and export data improving [53].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 棉花：上涨动能不足 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2509 | 元/吨 | 13,275 | -0.34% | - | - | | | CY2507 | 元/吨 | 19,525 | -0.10% | - | - | | | ICE美棉07 | 美分/磅 | 66.18 | 1.67% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 203,391 | -60,819 | 725,116 | -3,567 | | | CY2507 | 手 | 6,105 | -1,999 | 5,086 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 11 ...

美棉震荡偏弱，郑棉低位震荡 棉花周报 20250512 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/PPT教程：www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cnPPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/meishu/ 科学 ...

20250430棉系月报： 国内植棉进入苗期 关注后市关税政策调整 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 时间：2025年4月30日 周度综述：摘要 | | | | | | | 棉花供需平衡表(4月) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标(万吨) | | | 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 | | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (3月) | 2024/25 (4月) | 月度调整 | 年度同比 | | | 中国 | 597.7 | 644.5 | 583.5 | 668.4 | 595.4 | 691.2 | 696.6 | 5.4 | 101.2 | | | 印度 | 620.5 | 598.7 | 529.1 | 572.6 | 553.0 | 544.3 | 544.3 | 0.0 | -8.7 | | | 巴西 | 283 | 300 | 235.6 | 255.2 | 317.2 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for cotton remains unoptimistic. Domestic cotton spot trading is mainly for textile enterprises' rigid demand, the cotton yarn market is weak, textile enterprises lack confidence, and the开机 rate is expected to decline. ICE cotton futures continue to fall due to the shift of market focus to the demand - side and pessimistic demand prospects [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 12,840 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.85%, and 12,790 yuan/ton in the night session with a decline of 0.39%. CY2507 closed at 18,820 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.53%, and 18,805 yuan/ton in the night session with a decline of 0.08%. ICE US cotton 07 closed at 66.56 cents/pound yesterday with a decline of 1.48%. The trading volume of CF2509 was 256,332 lots, a decrease of 20,570 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 758,554 lots, a decrease of 2,095 lots. The trading volume of CY2507 was 4,312 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,855 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,838, an increase of 359 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,558, a decrease of 402. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 10, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1, an increase of 9 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,938 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.64% from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.65% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 75.97 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent or 1.61% from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading is mainly for textile enterprises' rigid demand, with some orders placed around the CF09 contract at 12,800. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton 4129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3 is mostly at CF09 + 1000 for self - pickup in Xinjiang. The lower sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 is at CF09 + 1200 - 1300 for self - pickup in inland warehouses [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market is weak. Textile enterprises lack confidence, downstream only makes rigid - demand purchases, the quotes of textile enterprises remain stable, but some offer cash discounts. More textile enterprises are reducing production, and the operating rate is expected to decline further [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton continued to fall yesterday. Due to the improvement of weather conditions in US cotton - growing areas, the market focus shifted back to the demand side, and ICE cotton futures continued to decline based on the pessimistic demand outlook [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity values is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is currently in a weak consolidation phase. The "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season in the domestic cotton market is nearing its end, and the overall market is rather quiet. With the unclear situation of Sino - US negotiations and the approaching May Day holiday, it is advisable to clear positions to avoid risks. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 12,700 - 12,900 intraday [4]. - The cotton market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the futures price approaching historical lows and the expectation of the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak. Negative factors are the decrease in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, US tariff hikes, stagnant exports to the US, and the European Union's import - restricting regulations [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US mutual imposition of large - scale tariffs. In March, the textile industry's prosperity index rebounded to 52.47% above the boom - bust line. USDA reported a reduction in April consumption and an increase in inventory, which is slightly bearish. ICAC's April report predicted a production increase compared to the previous month, stable consumption, and a slight increase in ending inventory, also slightly bearish. In March, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year. In March, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a 81.4% year - on - year decrease, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a 31% year - on - year decrease. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated a 2024/2025 production of 6.16 million tons, imports of 1.5 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14,232 yuan, with a basis of 1392 yuan (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's April 2024/2025 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a net short position increase, and the main trend is bearish [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: The table shows cotton production, consumption, and other data of various countries from 2020/21 to 2024/25. For example, in 2024/25 (April), China's cotton production is 696.7 million tons, an increase of 5.4 million tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 17% [10]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance**: The table presents China's cotton supply - demand data from 2022/23 to 2024/25. In 2024/25 (April forecast), production is 6.16 million tons, imports are 1.5 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.31 million tons [19]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 29 日 棉花：需求继续限制郑棉期货反弹动能 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2509 | 元/吨 | 12,950 | -0.31% | 12880 | -0.54% | | | CY2507 | 元/吨 | 18,920 | -0.08% | 18870 | -0.26% | | | ICE美棉07 | 美分/磅 | 67.56 | -1.66% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 276,902 | 22,870 | 760,649 | -12,543 | | | CY2507 | 手 | 2,949 | -1,999 | 22,279 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有 ...

新疆棉花播种接近尾声，郑棉低位震荡 棉花周报 20250428 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/PPT教程：www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cnPPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/meishu ...