2025 年 12 月 19 日 究 棉花：震荡偏强 关注下游需求 20251219 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 13,960 | 0.25% | 13965 | 0.04% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,045 | -0.20% | 20015 | -0.15% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 63.57 | 0.17% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 256,451 | -126,344 | 1,113,433 | 2,453 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 5,907 | -1,999 | 22,824 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 利多：年前下游补库，商业库存同比降低。对美出口关 税比前期降低10%。 利空：总体外贸订单下降，库存增加。新棉即将大量上 市。目前处于传统消费淡季。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建 议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量261 ...

持续增仓， 多空博弈加剧 棉花周报 2025/12/13 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，本周美棉花期货价格窄幅震荡，截至周五美棉花期货3月合约收盘价报63.83美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.12美分/磅， 跌幅0.19%。价差方面，美棉3-5月差报-1.1美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.04美分/磅。国内方面，本周郑棉价格小幅上涨，截至周五郑棉5月 合约收盘价报13850元/吨，较之前一周上涨130元/吨，涨幅0.95%。中国棉花价格指数(CCIndex)3128B报15062元/吨，较之前一周上涨40元/ 吨。基差报1215元/吨，较之前一周下跌90元/吨。郑棉1-5月差报-15元/吨，较之前一周下跌45元/吨。 ◆ 行业信息：据Mysteel最新公布的数据显示，截至12月12日当周，纺纱厂开机率为65.5%，环比前一个周持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton broke through upwards this week. With the Fed's interest - rate cut and the expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, Zhengzhou cotton may challenge the 14,000 yuan/ton mark despite facing upward pressure [56]. - Internationally, the market fluctuated narrowly. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report was bearish, and U.S. cotton's weekly export data was weak. Short - term U.S. cotton is expected to remain weakly volatile [56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: Zhengzhou cotton strengthened this week with a weekly increase of 0.95%, while ICE cotton fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 0.01% [11]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose 16 yuan/ton and the 2129 index rose 15 yuan/ton compared to last week [16]. - **Import Situation**: In October, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [21]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the second half of November, the commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, and the market entered an accelerated inventory accumulation stage [22]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In November, the yarn inventory was 26.33 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.69 days [30]. - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of open - end spun 10 - count cotton yarn remained flat, while the prices of carded 32 - count and combed 40 - count cotton yarns increased by 30 yuan/ton [34]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: This week, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts plus forecasts increased by 1,062, with 2,967 warehouse receipts and 3,585 valid forecasts, totaling 6,552 [40]. - **U.S. Cotton Export**: As of November 13, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the current year increased by 187,600 bales, and for the next year, it was 17,600 bales [47]. - **U.S. Weather**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the U.S. was 33.8%, with different drought levels having different coverage percentages [53]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - Domestic market: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to challenge the 14,000 yuan/ton mark due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut and the expected reduction in Xinjiang's planting area, although it faces upward pressure [56]. - International market: U.S. cotton is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term due to a bearish USDA report and weak export data [56].

「2025.12.12」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 瑞达期货研究院 未来交易提示： 1、关注外棉价格变化2、需求3、库存情况 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2601合约价格上涨，周度涨幅约0.62%。 行情展望：据美国农业部(USDA)报告显示，11月13日止当周，2025/26年度美国陆 地棉出口销售净增18.76万包，较前周减少36%，较前四周均值增加10%。2025/26 年度美国陆地棉出口装运量11.32万包，较前周减少17%，较前4周平均水平减少 27%。当周美国棉花出口签约量、装运量均减少。国内市场：供应端，轧花厂皮棉 加工量持续增加，商业库存呈现季节性增长态势。进口方面，进口棉港口基本进多 出少。据Mysteel调研显示，截止至12月11日，进口棉主要港口库存连续第10周增加， 总库存39.03万吨，刷新5个月高点。需求端，下游纺企旺季采购结束，但中高支纱 线订单表现稳定，多选择刚需补货 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has fully priced in the supply pressure of US cotton, and the downward adjustment of global cotton production is a slight positive factor [2] - The overall price of pure - cotton yarn remains stable, with some prices slightly adjusted, and the overall atmosphere is not good [2] - The spot trading of cotton is average, with some low - basis differentials having relatively good transactions [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,740 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.07% daily increase and 13750 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.07% increase; CY2603 closed at 19,945 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.18% daily increase and 19960 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.08% increase; ICE US cotton 3 closed at 63.87 cents/pound with a 0.20% increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 303,883 lots, a decrease of 1,706 from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,050,394 lots, an increase of 6,283. The trading volume of CY2603 was 7,169 lots, a decrease of 1,999 from the previous day, and the open interest was 17,370 lots, an increase of 1,045 [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,749, a decrease of 4 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 3,321, an increase of 317. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 12, a decrease of 1, and the valid forecast was 0, an increase of 13 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,586 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,613 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 15,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,968 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan from the previous day. The 3128B index was 14,999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 71.77 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,059 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading is average, with some low - basis differentials having relatively good transactions. There are still some basis differentials being adjusted downward, but the amplitude is not large. Under the background of low inventory pressure, high - basis differential goods lack the motivation for significant price cuts, and the fixed - price quotes are relatively stable [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The overall price of pure - cotton yarn remains stable, with some counts having slight price adjustments and the overall atmosphere being not good. A few large spinning enterprises reduce prices to clear inventory for rotor - spun yarn, with the price of OEC32S being reduced by 200. Some spinning enterprises have new orders for low - count yarn, and a few spinning enterprises increase the prices of hot - selling low - count yarn products. Recently, the operating rates of spinning enterprises in the inland and Xinjiang have slightly decreased, the inventory has slightly accumulated, and the prices of conventional yarn products continue to be sluggish [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday. Although the USDA raised the production and ending inventory estimates of US cotton for the 2025/26 season again, the market has fully priced in the supply pressure of US cotton, while the downward adjustment of global cotton production (a 400,000 - bale, nearly 10% decrease in the production of West African cotton - producing countries) is a slight positive factor [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

| 地区 | 检验企业 | 检验数量 | 检验重量 | 检验重量同 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (家) | (包) | (万吨) | 出 | | 新疆 | 1001 | 21356754 | 482. 15 | 15. 54% | | 内地 | 66 | 221332 | 4. 95 | -24. 79% | | 全国 | 1067 | 21578086 | 487. 11 | 14. 91% | 来源：市场资讯 （来源：西域棉花网） 据中国纤维质量监测中心数据统计，截至12月7日24时，25/26年度棉花检验数据如下： 编辑整理 | 上海国际棉花交易中心 来源 |上海国际棉花交易中心 皮棉检验数据 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that after this round of rebound, cotton prices will gradually return to a volatile pattern. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the support is limited. The global supply - demand pattern is weak, with low demand. In the domestic market, the positive macro - environment and short - term spot resource shortage support the market, and downstream rigid demand persists. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton was reported at 63.82 - 64.85 cents per pound, with a Friday closing price of 63.93 cents per pound, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%. As of November 28, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract increased by 634 to 21,716, equivalent to an increase of 10,000 tons from last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season increased by 1,001 to 39,293, equivalent to 890,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 48,920, equivalent to 1.11 million tons, an increase of 1,482 (or 30,000 tons) from last week [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: It was reported at 13,660 - 13,820 yuan per ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,750 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan. As of December 5, the number of registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton was 2,709, and the number of forecast warehouse receipts was 2,781, totaling 5,490, equivalent to 230,580 tons [10]. - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The price center of domestic cotton spot prices moved slightly upward and then fluctuated in a narrow range this week. The one - time price of cotton spot increased, and the sales basis of cotton spot weakened. The one - time price of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang hand - picked cotton and northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was mostly quoted at around 14,800 - 14,950 yuan per ton (gross weight), and the actual transaction was slightly discounted. [13][16] 3.2 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, the highest since 2013. The Xinjiang cotton region is expected to produce about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total. In October 2025, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 5,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import was 770,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4% (or 1.595 million tons). The cumulative import in the 2025/26 season was 185,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% (or 38,000 tons) [19][26]. - **Demand**: The demand performance is average but still shows resilience, and the operating rate remains flat [29][35]. - **Profit**: The processing profit of ginning mills this week was 722 - 762 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1,099.6 - - 1,053.4 yuan per ton [38]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 8, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.465 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 285,600 tons, higher than the same period last year by 14,680 tons. At the end of October, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 874,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,200 tons [44]. 3.3 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand**: According to the latest November global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the global output was 26.145 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 523,000 tons, mainly due to the output adjustments in China and the US. The demand increased slightly to 25.883 million tons, showing an overall bearish trend [46].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report - Cotton Prices Fluctuate, Pay Attention to Upper Pressure [1] - Date: December 5, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Core Contradictions - As of December 4, 2025, the cumulative national new - season cotton notarized inspection volume was 4.6436 million tons, with the average daily notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton around 80,000 tons. There is still hedging pressure on the futures market. Spot basis quotes have slightly decreased, while fixed - price quotes remain firm [2]. - Downstream overall load is stable, spinners' profits are acceptable, and finished - product inventory pressure is not large. Yarn sales are better than grey fabric sales, and spinners have a rigid demand for replenishing cotton inventory. Follow - up orders need attention [2]. 2.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Near - term Trading Logic**: New cotton is accelerating onto the market, but the downstream has resilience. Despite being in the traditional off - season, some sectors have good orders and spinners maintain certain profits. As long as the final cotton output does not increase unexpectedly, the downside space for cotton prices is limited. Pay attention to whether the hedging pressure around 13,800 can be broken [4]. - **Long - term Trading Logic**: In recent years, domestic downstream textile production capacity has expanded significantly. Xinjiang spinning mills maintain high - load operation, increasing the rigid consumption of cotton raw materials. Sino - US trade expectations are gradually improving. Although domestic cotton production has increased significantly, imports are still needed to fill the gap. The total 1% import tariff quota for cotton in 2026 remains at 894,000 tons, and with the additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale quota, the total new - season import quota is still relatively low. The probability of further increasing the cotton import quota is low, so the domestic cotton supply - demand may remain tight in the new season. Pay attention to the demand side under the influence of new - season policy changes [15][16]. 2.3 Strategy Recommendations for Industrial Customers - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range for cotton is predicted to be between 13,500 and 14,000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0542, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 0.0365 [18]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,900 - 14,000. They can also sell call options (CF605C14000) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 200 - 250 [18]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 13,400 - 13,500. They can also sell put options (CF601P13400) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 250 - 300 [18]. 2.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Data**: Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 13,750, up 25 (0.18%); Zhengzhou cotton 05 closed at 13,720, up 35 (0.26%); Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13,855, up 65 (0.47%) [19]. - **Spot Data**: CC Index 3128B was at 15,022, up 126 (0.85%); CC Index 2227B was at 13,165, up 148 (1.14%); CC Index 2129B was at 15,290, up 148 (0.98%) [19]. - **Spread Data**: CF1 - 5 spread was 30, down 10; CF5 - 9 spread was - 135, down 30; CF9 - 1 spread was 105, up 40 [20]. - **Import Price**: FC Index M was at 12,853, down 82 (- 0.63%); FCY Index C32s was at 21,116, up 19 (0.09%) [20]. - **Cotton Yarn Data**: The futures price was 20,005, down 85 (- 0.42%); the现货 price was 20,770, up 30 (0.14%) [20]. Group 3: Weekly Information and Upcoming Events 3.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - As of November 27, the national new - cotton picking progress was 99.6%, the same as last year and 0.1 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national delivery rate was 98.5%, 1.0 percentage points higher than last year and 2.2 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national processing rate was 72.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than last year and 9.8 percentage points higher than the four - year average; the national sales rate was 33.2%, 18.9 percentage points higher than last year and 22.1 percentage points higher than the four - year average [20]. - In October, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China were 147.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 19.54% and a year - on - year increase of 9.21% [21]. - As of October 23, 2025, the cumulative net signed export volume of US cotton for the 2025/26 season was 1.137 million tons, accounting for 42.81% of the annual expected export volume, and the cumulative shipped volume was 398,000 tons, with a shipping rate of 34.98% [21]. - As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative new - season seed cotton listing volume in Pakistan, converted to lint cotton, was about 796,000 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons from the previous two weeks and a 1.1% decrease compared to the same period last year [21]. - **Negative Information**: - In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. Textile exports were 11.258 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.05% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.92%; clothing exports were 11.004 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 15.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.64% [22]. - As of November 15, the total national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 4.5711 million tons, an increase of 752,300 tons from the end of October. Commercial inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from the end of October, and industrial inventory was 931,400 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from the end of October [22]. - In October 2025, the export volume of cotton products was 608,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.36% and a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. The export value was 4.678 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 17.09% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.12%. The export unit price was 7.69 US dollars per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 15.96% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.13% [22]. 3.2 Next Week's Important Events - The cotton harvest in Xinjiang is basically completed. Pay attention to the processing and final output of Xinjiang cotton [23]. - Follow up on US cotton export data and the adjustment of the December USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Report [23]. Group 4: Disk Interpretation 4.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated around 13,700 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The downward movement was mainly driven by long - position exits rather than short - position increases. Market trading was cautious, and the hedging pressure around 13,800 was obvious [31]. - **Month - spread Structure**: The cotton 1 - 5 spread still shows a slight back structure, but after the 05 contract, it maintains a contango structure, indicating an expectation of tight supply - demand at the end of the year [34]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the cotton basis slightly decreased. The fixed - price quotes for hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang (3130/30B/impurity within 2) and machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang (3130/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5) are around 14,800 - 14,950 (on a legal weight basis). The spot sales basis for the same - quality cotton is mostly in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1250, and the basis in the 1000 - 1100 range slightly increased this week [36]. Group 5: Valuation and Profit Analysis 5.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Supported by policies and technological innovation, Xinjiang spinning mills have a significant cost advantage over those in the inland. Xinjiang spinning has always maintained certain profits, while inland mills were basically slightly loss - making in the third quarter. Since September, due to the hedging pressure from ginning mills and the supply pressure of new cotton, domestic cotton prices have declined, while yarn spot prices have been relatively stable, significantly repairing domestic spinners' profits. This week, cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly, while yarn prices were relatively stable, and spinners' profits narrowed compared to last week [38]. 5.2 Import Profit Tracking - China is a large cotton - importing country. Affected by the Xinjiang cotton ban and tariff policies, domestic and foreign cotton prices move relatively independently. This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is currently low, and the domestic cotton import volume remains at a low level. In October 2025, China's cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. The cumulative cotton import volume in the 2025/26 season was 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.4%. This week, foreign cotton prices trended weakly, and China's cotton import profit slightly increased [40]. Group 6: Supply and Inventory Projection 6.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The new - season cotton harvest in Xinjiang is basically completed. With the progress of new - cotton procurement, the expected output of Xinjiang cotton has been slightly revised upwards again, indicating a bumper harvest. In terms of imports, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued an additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale quota, and together with the 894,000 - ton 1% tariff quota issued in 2026, the new - season cotton import volume is tentatively estimated at 1.1 million tons. Given the domestic bumper harvest and the unchanged Sino - US situation, the probability of further increasing the sliding - scale quota is currently low. On the downstream side, domestic demand may maintain a moderate recovery. Although it is currently the traditional off - season, some textile and clothing sectors have good orders. On the export side, although there are no "rush - to - export" orders, with the further relaxation of Sino - US trade, domestic cotton consumption expectations are still supported [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The cotton market shows strong supply and demand [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,800 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.25%, and its night - session closing price was 13,720 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.58%. CY2601 closed at 20,005 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.20%, and its night - session closing price was 19,915 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.45%. ICE cotton 3 closed at 64.61 cents/pound with a decline of 0.05%. The trading volume of CF2601 was 335,581 lots, a decrease of 27,273 lots from the previous day, and its position was 1,046,477 lots, an increase of 30,263 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 2,484 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and its position was 5,997 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,499, an increase of 96 from the previous day, with 2,147 valid forecasts (unchanged). The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 14 (unchanged), with 0 valid forecasts and an increase of 14 from the previous day [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,696 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton (0.20%) from the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,693 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton (0.20%) from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 15,010 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton (0.19%) from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 14,912 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton (0.30%) from the previous day. The 3128B index was 14,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton (0.29%) from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 72.64 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.10% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 was 20,770 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its arrival price was 20,984 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton (- 0.02%) from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading remained weak, with some hedging transactions. The mainstream basis of spot changed little, some high - basis goods were slightly reduced, and the fixed - price quotes were slightly increased. The mainstream sales basis of 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurities within 3.5 was mostly at CF01 + 900 and above, and the number of 31 - grade products with the same quality and quote increased this week. For 2025/26 machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B in both north and south Xinjiang with impurities within 3, many quotes had a basis of CF01 + 1400 - 1600 for mainland self - pick - up [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn was locally increased by 100 - 200, but the actual transactions had no obvious follow - up. To relieve the profit pressure, some large spinning enterprises raised the yarn price. Orders for high - count and combed yarns used for high - end fabrics were relatively stable, while the trading of other categories was weak [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly yesterday. Affected by the interest - rate cut expectation, the risk appetite of the overall financial market was good, and the bargain - hunting buying continued to support ICE cotton [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]