交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年11月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度 产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海关：9月纺织品服装出口244.2 亿美元，同比下降1.4%。9月份我国棉花进口10万吨，同比减少18.7%；棉纱进口13万吨，同 比增加18.18%。农村部10月25/26年度：产量636万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库 存822万吨。中性。 6：预期：目前新棉逐步上市，产量可能比之前预估有所减少。对美出口关税比前期降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a bearish view on the cotton industry and suggests investors look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound of the CF2601 contract [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The core view is bearish. The upward movement of seed cotton purchase prices and low commercial inventory support the market, but there is some hedging pressure above after the market rebounds. In the fourth quarter, due to the significant increase in new cotton production, the pressure of concentrated listing, and the mediocre demand performance, the price may still be dominated by a bearish outlook [3] 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 01 Week - ly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton production is expected to be 287.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 285 - 300 million tons. China's cotton production is expected to be 708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The domestic production is generally expected to be 750 million tons, with the highest expectation exceeding 800 million tons, and the quality is better than last year [3] - **Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton consumption is 838 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The domestic cotton yarn market was trading lightly this week, with spinning mills mainly making rigid - demand purchases [3] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, China's cotton commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, an increase of 69.85 million tons from the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory. The industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, a decrease of 3.62 million tons from the end of September [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 30, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 2434, with 1228 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 14.64 million tons [3] - **Basis**: As of October 30, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 14,650 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, and the basis was 1,050 yuan/ton [3] - **Cost**: In 2025, the planting cost per mu increased by 100 - 200 yuan compared to 2024. The total cost per mu was between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan. The purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang was approaching 6.5 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked cotton was stable at 7.1 - 7.2 yuan/kg [3] - **Macro - environment**: The US cancelled the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on China, and the 24% reciprocal tariff remained suspended for another year. The US government shutdown affected data release. Domestically, policies to boost demand are expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [3] 3.2 02 Data Charts - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. Global consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9] - **US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. Consumption remains unchanged at 370,000 tons, and exports are expected to increase slightly to 2.613 million tons [10] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Consumption is expected to be 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [11] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.42 million tons. Imports are expected to increase by 13% year - on - year, and consumption is expected to decrease slightly year - on - year [12][13] - **US Cotton Weather**: As of September 26, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 47%, 16 percentage points higher than the same period last year [16] - **9 - month Xinjiang Cotton Research Conclusion**: The average yield per mu was between 460 - 470 kg. The expected purchase price of seed cotton was around 6.2 yuan/kg. The old cotton inventory in Xinjiang was at a three - year low, and most yarn mills were operating at full capacity but with narrowed profit margins [23][24][25] - **Cotton and Yarn Imports**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 690,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.7%. From January to September 2025, cumulative yarn imports were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.2% [26][28] - **Cotton Commercial Inventory**: As of October 15, China's cotton commercial inventory was 1.7202 million tons, an increase of 0.6985 million tons from the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory [29]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang has exceeded 80%. As of October 30, 2025, the cumulative national new - year cotton notarized inspection volume was 168 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.95%. New cotton supply will continue to increase, pressuring cotton prices. Downstream demand is relatively flat, and cloth mills' finished products are slightly accumulating inventory. Although the Sino - US trade situation is improving, the US still imposes higher tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing exports than on Southeast Asian countries [1]. - In the short - term, the output in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the new cotton purchase price is relatively firm. There is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and downstream demand is weak, lacking upward momentum for cotton prices. In the long - term, domestic textile production capacity has expanded significantly, increasing the rigid demand for cotton. Although domestic cotton production has increased, there is still a need to import foreign cotton, but the probability of further increasing import quotas is low, so the new - year domestic cotton supply and demand may still be tight [3][16]. - The trend of cotton prices is expected to be a wide - range shock, with the CF2601 contract in the range of 13,400 - 13,800. Short - term short - selling of CF2601 and long - term long - position layout of CF2605 at low levels are recommended. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn spread [22]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The overall cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang is over 80%, and new cotton supply is increasing. The purchase price in southern Xinjiang is relatively firm, while that in northern Xinjiang has slightly decreased [1]. - Demand side: Downstream load is basically stable. Some yarn mills are making price - based purchases, but overall demand is flat, and cloth mills' finished products are accumulating inventory. The US still imposes 35% - 50% tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing exports [1]. - Near - term trading logic: Southern Xinjiang's output is lower than expected, and the purchase price is firm. There is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and downstream demand is weak [3]. - Long - term trading logic: Domestic textile production capacity has expanded, increasing cotton demand. Although domestic production has increased, there is a need to import foreign cotton, but the probability of increasing import quotas is low, so supply and demand may be tight [16]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market trend: Wide - range shock, with the CF2601 contract in the range of 13,400 - 13,800. - Strategy: Short - term short - selling of CF2601, long - term long - position layout of CF2605 at low levels. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn spread [22]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast: The monthly price range of cotton is 13,400 - 13,800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0767 and a historical 3 - year percentile of 0.153 [20]. - Risk management strategies: For inventory management, short Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell call options. For procurement management, buy Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell put options [20]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures data: Zhengzhou cotton 01, 05, and 09 contracts all rose slightly this week. - Spot data: CC Index 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B all rose slightly. - Spread data: CF1 - 5 spread was - 10, CF5 - 9 spread was - 150, and CF9 - 1 spread was 160. - Import price: FC Index M rose by 1.33%, and FCY Index C32s fell by 0.13%. - Yarn data: Futures and spot prices of yarn both rose slightly [21][23]. 2. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The US canceled the 10% fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods and suspended the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year in the new round of Sino - US consultations. As of October 23, the national new cotton picking, delivery, processing, and sales rates all increased year - on - year. In September, China's clothing and textile retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In September 2025, cotton product exports and Japan's clothing imports increased [23][24]. - Negative information: As of October 15, the national commercial cotton inventory increased by 68.37% compared to the end of September [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Follow the progress of cotton processing and production determination in Xinjiang. Pay attention to the release of the USDA report, US cotton seedling conditions, and export situation [26]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: Zhengzhou cotton tried to rise this week but lacked momentum. The 01 contract's positions decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [37]. - Month - spread structure: The current cotton month - spread shows a contango structure starting from the 01 contract. Near - month contracts are relatively weak due to increased supply and hedging pressure, while far - month contracts are expected to have tight supply and demand at the end of the year. After Sino - US consultations, the near - month trend was slightly stronger, but the overall C structure remained, and there is still pressure above the 01 contract [40]. - Basis structure: This week, as Zhengzhou cotton rebounded and new cotton supply increased, the basis further declined. The basis of the same - quality spot is between CF01 + 1000 - 1350 [44]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Xinjiang yarn mills have cost advantages and maintain certain profits, while inland mills were slightly in the red in the third quarter. Currently, yarn prices are basically stable, new cotton purchase prices are firm, and the immediate spinning profit of domestic yarn mills has slightly declined [46]. 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - China is a large cotton importer. This year, cotton import profits are considerable, but the import quota is low. The additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued in August has limited impact on the market. In September 2025, China's cotton imports were 1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons [48]. 5. Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - New - year Xinjiang cotton is gradually coming onto the market. A bumper harvest is basically certain, but the output increase may narrow due to lower yields in southern Xinjiang and lower lint percentage in most areas. It is tentatively estimated that the new - year cotton import volume will be 1.1 million tons. Domestic cotton consumption is not overly pessimistic due to the expansion of Xinjiang's spinning capacity and high operating rates [51].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant advancements in cotton harvesting technology in Xinjiang, particularly the use of mechanization and drones, which have greatly improved efficiency and productivity in cotton farming [1][2][3] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The use of large-scale cotton harvesting machines and drones has transformed the cotton harvesting process, allowing for faster and more efficient collection of cotton [1][2] - The integration of the Beidou satellite navigation system in machinery has enhanced operational precision in cotton planting and harvesting [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - Farmers report substantial increases in productivity, with one farmer managing 1,900 acres and achieving an average yield of 500 kilograms per acre, significantly reducing labor time from 20 days to just 10 days for harvesting [1][2] - The cotton industry in Xinjiang has seen a rise in confidence among farmers, with many investing in advanced machinery for both cotton cultivation and cross-regional operations, contributing to additional income streams [2] Group 3: Production and Quality - Xinjiang has implemented a comprehensive technological framework to enhance cotton production, achieving a mechanization level of 97% and a good seed coverage rate of 98% for high-quality cotton varieties [3] - The introduction of over 30 new cotton varieties with superior traits, including drought resistance and suitability for mechanical harvesting, is expected to further boost cotton yield and quality [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the cotton industry is "oscillation", indicating a short - term outlook of the market moving within a range [3]. Core View of the Report - The short - term demand side of the cotton market performs averagely, and the supply side maintains a loose pattern, so the cotton futures market may experience range - bound oscillations. Influencing factors such as supply, demand, inventory, etc., present different driving forces. The supply is short - term bearish and long - term bullish; demand, profit, and valuation are bullish; inventory is bearish; and the impact of basis/spread and macro - policy is neutral [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Short - term bearish and long - term bullish. Currently in the period of concentrated processing and inspection of new cotton, the selling pressure on the spot market persists. Market expectations include a possible reduction in the cotton target direct subsidy price in the next three years in the Central No. 1 Document in January - February 2026, a possible decrease in the planting area in March 2026, and a seasonal speculation window for domestic production area weather in April 2026 [3]. - **Demand**: Bullish. Downstream yarn mills have low raw material inventories and strong restocking intentions. Seasonal pre - holiday restocking from the end of the fourth quarter to the beginning of the first quarter of 2026 may increase demand. Spinning profits have improved significantly compared to the third quarter, which is beneficial for mill operations and restocking [3]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. As new cotton is massively listed, inventory gradually accumulates [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis for pre - sold new cotton delivered before the end of January 2026 is 678, and the spread between Zhengzhou Cotton's January and May contracts fluctuates around - 50 this week [3]. - **Profit**: Bullish. Spinning profits have improved significantly compared to the third quarter, with positive cash - flow profits in Xinjiang and even inland areas, which encourages mill operations and restocking [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a relatively low level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for supporting the long - term demand for domestic cotton, which is bullish for far - month contracts. Internationally, there may be a restart of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, strengthening the expectation of improved liquidity [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillation. The short - term demand is average, and the supply is abundant, so the market may move within a range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For both single - side and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see. Key risks to monitor include domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. Part Two: Cotton Fundamental Data - **Production**: The report presents historical data on national and Xinjiang cotton production from 2013 - 2025 [5][6]. - **Inventory**: It includes data on national and Xinjiang commercial inventories, national cotton bonded - area commercial inventories, national industrial inventories, and mid - stream inventories (showing seasonal destocking of finished products). Mid - stream factory loads show a slow recovery in operation rates, and mid - stream yarn mills are currently in a loss - making situation. It also provides data on domestic cotton and cotton yarn imports and US cotton's weekly signing and shipment volumes, with US cotton's exports to China showing sporadic signing and zero shipments [9][14][22][27][32][41]. Part Three: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Basis and Spread**: Zhengzhou Cotton's basis is oscillating at a high level, and the spreads between different contracts are presented. The US cotton's monthly spread shows a Deep Contango pattern [45][64]. - **Position**: Data on Zhengzhou Cotton's contract positions and the net long positions of managed funds in US cotton futures and options are provided [53][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of cottonseed has slightly increased, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures has continued to be strong. In the short - term, the cotton price may fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [2]. - As Zhengzhou cotton rebounds, the price of pure cotton yarn has also slightly followed up, but the downstream demand restricts the follow - up range. The short - term price of cotton yarn is likely to remain stable. The upper limit of Zhengzhou cotton has hedging pressure, and the lower limit has cost support, so it is likely to fluctuate in the short term [3][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and Foreign Cotton Markets - **One - week Data Overview**: As of October 24, the CRB commodity price index closed at 302.98 points, up 9.63 points from October 17. The ICE cotton futures main contract in December was at 64.18 cents/pound, down 0.11 cents/pound from October 17. Zhengzhou cotton's main 01 contract closed at 13,540 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from October 17, with an increase of 4,442 lots in positions to 591,000 lots. Spot prices of some cotton - related products also changed slightly [2][10][11]. - **Imported Cotton Quotations**: The CNF quotations of imported cotton from the US and Brazil at the main ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 2.4 cents/pound, and that of Brazil M decreased by 2.1 cents/pound [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Basic Situation - **Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends**: On October 24, the prices of raw materials showed mixed changes compared with October 17. The price of polyester staple fiber remained unchanged, viscose decreased by 26 yuan/ton, and the prices of CCI3128 and Zhengzhou cotton's main contract increased [14][15]. - **Cotton Yarn Price Trends**: On October 24, the prices of domestic and imported cotton yarns remained stable compared with October 17. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns decreased, and the price difference between domestic cotton spot and imported cotton (under sliding - scale duty) also decreased [18][21][24]. - **Comparison of Domestic and International Cotton Prices**: On October 24, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 14,803 yuan/ton. The difference between the spot price index and the imported cotton price under sliding - scale duty decreased compared with October 17. The difference between Zhengzhou cotton and the imported cotton price under sliding - scale duty increased [27]. 3.3 Third Part: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: As of October 24, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 2,653 lots (114,000 tons), with 183 effective forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 121,000 tons, down from 127,000 tons on October 17 [33]. - **Analysis of Zhengzhou Cotton's Futures - Spot Price Difference**: On October 24, the difference between Zhengzhou cotton's futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,432 yuan/ton, an increase from - 1,329 yuan/ton on October 17 [35]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis**: - **Macro - aspect**: The US core CPI growth rate slowed down in September, and the market expected the Fed to cut interest rates. China's GDP growth rate in the third quarter was the slowest this year, but incremental policies were expected to be introduced later [36]. - **Supply - side**: As of October 15, the national commercial cotton inventory increased. The cotton inspection volume was about 70,000 tons per day. The cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 67.9% as of October 20, 2.1 percentage points slower than the same period last year [37]. - **Downstream Market**: As of October 15, the textile enterprises' cotton inventory decreased, while the yarn and fabric inventories increased. The downstream demand was weak, and the spinning mills mainly adopted the strategies of selling at market prices and producing on demand [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The technical indicators of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract turned strong, with the MACD green column turning red and the KDJ and DIFF - DEA indicators about to form golden crosses [42]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From September 12 - 18, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year - old upland cotton decreased by 54% compared with the previous week, and the shipment increased by 14%. The net signing of Pima cotton increased significantly, and the shipment of Pima cotton increased compared with the previous week but decreased compared with the average of the recent four weeks [47]. - **ICE Cotton Futures Analysis**: On October 24, the ICE cotton futures main contract in December was at 64.18 cents/pound, down 0.11 cents/pound from October 17. The technical indicators turned strong, with the KDJ indicator about to form a golden cross [50]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - Upstream cotton enterprises can hedge risks by calculating the cost of lint cotton based on the purchase price of cottonseed and hedging on the futures market or buying put options [52]. - Downstream spinning mills can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the purchase cost of lint cotton when the raw material price drops [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US cotton futures fluctuated, with the December contract closing at 64.18 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.11 cents per pound or 0.17% from the previous week. The price of Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, with the January contract closing at 13,540 yuan per ton, an increase of 205 yuan per ton or 1.54% from the previous week. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B rose to 14,803 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The basis weakened slightly, and the spread between Zhengzhou cotton January - May contracts strengthened slightly [9]. - Due to the US government shutdown, USDA data continued to be suspended. On October 23, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.28 yuan per kilogram, up 0.11 yuan per kilogram from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, flat compared to the previous week, 7.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [9]. - Fundamentally, the demand during the peak consumption season this year was weak, and the operating rate of the downstream industrial chain declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. There is also an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season in China, leading to significant selling hedging pressure. Although the purchase price of new cotton has increased slightly recently, driving the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected that the upward space for cotton prices in the short term is relatively limited [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: US cotton futures prices fluctuated, with the December contract closing at 64.18 cents per pound, down 0.17%. The spread between US cotton December - March contracts was - 1.53 cents per pound, down 0.03 cents per pound. Zhengzhou cotton prices rebounded slightly, with the January contract closing at 13,540 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,803 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan per ton. The basis weakened slightly to 1263 yuan per ton, down 96 yuan per ton, and the spread between Zhengzhou cotton January - May contracts strengthened to 0 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan per ton [9]. - **Industry Information**: USDA data suspension due to the US government shutdown. Xinjiang's machine - picked cotton purchase index rose to 6.28 yuan per kilogram. The spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, showing no change from the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Weak demand during the peak season, low downstream operating rates, and expected bumper harvests with high selling hedging pressure. The recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, but short - term upward price space is limited [9]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, Zhengzhou cotton basis, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, US cotton spreads, and other international spread trends, but no specific text analysis is provided [24]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: It shows the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton through charts [39]. - **Cotton Imports**: Displays monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton [41]. - **US Exports to China**: Presents the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of the US to China [43]. - **Cotton Yarn Imports**: Shows monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn [45]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Presents the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills [48]. - **National Sales Progress**: Displays the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [50]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Shows the weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory [53]. - **Spinning Mill Inventory**: Displays the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills [55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **US Situation**: Includes the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the cotton good - quality rate, double - weekly and cumulative processing volumes, production and planting area estimates, export contract progress, export shipment volumes, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [58][60][62]. - **Brazilian Situation**: Covers the planting area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton [71][74]. - **Indian Situation**: Involves the planting area, production, consumption, import and export volumes, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [79][82].

Research Background - Xinjiang is the main cotton-producing area in China, accounting for over 90% of the national cotton output. The planting area in Xinjiang has increased year-on-year, and overall weather conditions have been favorable, but high temperatures and reduced sunlight during the flowering and boll-opening stages have lowered optimistic yield expectations [3]. Research Summary 1. Cotton Growth Status - The visual growth of cotton is good, but actual yield measurements are below expectations. The weight of seed cotton in southern Xinjiang has decreased compared to last year, leading to a significant decline in yield levels. The cotton fiber content has also dropped by 0.5 to 2 percentage points, resulting in a stable or slightly decreased cotton output compared to last year [4]. 2. Change in Yield Expectations - Prior to October, the market expected cotton production to be around 7.5 to 7.6 million tons. However, recent actual yield data suggests production may be just over 7 million tons, with the growth rate dropping from 10% to 5%. The purchase prices for seed cotton have been rising post-holiday, with current high purchase quotes for 38% net fiber content reaching 6.4 to 6.5 yuan/kg [5]. 3. Expected Decrease in Planting Area Next Year - Cotton prices have been weaker compared to previous years, and lower yields are expected to result in reduced profits per mu. Some cotton fields with low yields may be converted to other crops. The prices of intercropped crops have also significantly decreased, diminishing their revenue potential. Policies may further guide the reduction of cotton planting in less suitable areas, reallocating the area for food, oilseed, and high-efficiency crop cultivation [6]. 4. Potential Policy Support Reduction - The target price for Xinjiang cotton is set at 18,600 yuan per ton for 2023-2025, which is the last year of the current subsidy policy. Since the implementation of the target price policy in 2014, cotton production has increased by over 50%, but demand has not shown significant growth. Market expectations suggest that the target price may be reduced next year, with attention on policy documents expected to be released in March/April [8]. 5. Current Market Trend Expectations - Commercial cotton inventory levels are at historical lows, with the registered warehouse receipts for the November contract down 25% year-on-year, currently at 114,000 tons. The main contract is influenced by new cotton supply and demand expectations, with a tightening supply-demand situation anticipated for 2025/26, leading to a noticeable rebound in prices. The current market sentiment is positive regarding next year's cotton prices, with strategies such as the snowball strategy and attention to 1-5 reverse hedging and long call options recommended during the peak processing period [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures rebounded while the basis was weak. The ICE cotton futures fell again, lacking fundamental data guidance and upward momentum. The domestic cotton spot market had mainly rigid - demand transactions, with the spot basis being stable but weakening in some areas. The cotton yarn market was divided, with limited actual price - increase space due to insufficient downstream orders [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,535 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% daily increase and 13,540 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.04% increase; CY2601 closed at 19,760 yuan/ton with a - 0.08% daily increase and 19,750 yuan/ton in the night session with a - 0.05% increase. ICE cotton 12 was at 63.65 cents/pound with a - 1.18% daily increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 268,059 lots, a decrease of 64,803 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 916,634 lots, an increase of 7,855 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 10,964 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 23,235 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,565, a decrease of 14, and the effective forecast was 286, an increase of 23. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 6, an increase of 6, and the effective forecast was 0, a decrease of 6 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,672 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day with a - 0.03% change; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan with a - 0.03% change; the price in Shandong was 14,793 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan with a 0.27% change; the price in Hebei was 14,756 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan with a 0.33% change. The 3128B index was 14,772 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan with a 0.30% change. The international cotton index M was 72.96 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent with a 1.09% change. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 was 20,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan with a 0.15% change, and the arrival price was 21,213 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan with a 0.06% change [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot transactions were mainly for rigid demand, with the spot basis stable but weakening in some areas. The purchase price of machine - picked cottonseed in Xinjiang was still stable and slightly increasing, and different grades of cotton in Xinjiang had different price quotes and sales bases [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market was divided. The sales of low - count rotor - spun yarn and yarn related to autumn and winter fabrics improved slightly, but overall transactions were average. Some spinning mills tried to raise prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton, but the actual price - increase space was limited due to insufficient downstream new orders. Market purchases were mainly for rigid demand, and the spinning mills' inventory was generally low [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fell again, lacking fundamental data guidance and upward momentum [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Cotton continues its rebound momentum [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,465 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.97% and a night - session closing price of 13,480 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase; CY2601 closed at 19,605 yuan/ton with a 0.69% daily increase and a night - session closing price of 19,665 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase; ICE Cotton 12 was at 64.19 cents/pound with a - 0.16% change. Trading volume and open interest of CF2601 increased, while CY2601's trading volume decreased and open interest increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton's warehouse receipts decreased by 55 to 2,598, and effective forecasts increased by 47 to 230; cotton yarn's warehouse receipts remained at 0, and effective forecasts decreased by 6 to 6 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Prices of北疆3128机采 and 南疆3128机采 increased by 130 yuan/ton with a 0.90% and 0.91% increase respectively; prices in Shandong increased slightly, while in Hebei decreased slightly. The 3128B index remained unchanged, and the international cotton index M increased by 0.87%. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count remained stable, and its arrival price increased slightly [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 to - 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between 北疆3128机采 and CF601 remained unchanged at 1,140 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The domestic cotton spot market had weak trading, with smooth low - price transactions. Spot basis was mostly stable, with some local decreases. The purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked seed cotton increased [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market mainly had price - following sales. Market sentiment improved slightly due to the recent increase in Zhengzhou cotton, but downstream enterprises still purchased on a "use - as - needed" basis, with limited new orders. The spinning mill's operating rate increased slightly but was still lower than the same period in previous years, and traders were generally waiting and had weak inventory - building willingness [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell yesterday. Due to the lack of fundamental data guidance, overall trading was light, and the market continued to focus on international economic and trade situations [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]