1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unexpectedly positive USDA report, both domestic and international cotton prices rebounded. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the US for 90 days is also favorable for domestic cotton prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, recent downstream consumption has been average, with the operating rate remaining at a historically low level and the pace of cotton inventory reduction slowing down. Overall, short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In the international market, the price of US cotton futures rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 67.48 cents per pound, up 0.84 cents per pound from the previous week, a increase of 1.26%. The December - March spread of US cotton weakened slightly, closing at - 1.55 cents per pound on Friday, down 0.12 cents per pound from the previous week. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,120 yuan per ton, up 320 yuan per ton from the previous week, a increase of 2.32%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,216 yuan per ton, up 38 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened significantly, closing at 1,163 yuan per ton on Friday, down 287 yuan per ton from the previous week. The January - May spread of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, closing at 30 yuan per ton on Friday, down 20 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: As of the week ending August 15, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill operating rate was 37%, unchanged from the previous week; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.86 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous week. According to the USDA's August supply - demand report, the global cotton production forecast for August was 25.39 million tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons from the July forecast. Among them, the US production forecast was lowered by 300,000 tons to 2.88 million tons due to a 15% reduction in the planted area compared to the July forecast; China's production forecast was raised by 110,000 tons to 6.86 million tons; the production forecasts for Brazil and India remained unchanged. The global consumption forecast was lowered by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons, and the ending inventory was lowered by 740,000 tons to 16.09 million tons. The US inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased by 6.12 percentage points to 26.28% [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: No trading strategy suggestions were provided [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, domestic and international spreads, and US cotton spreads, etc., to show the historical trends of various spreads [26][28][30]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Production**: Charts show the processing and inspection volume and total processing volume of domestic cotton [39]. - **Imports**: Include the monthly and annual cumulative import volume of domestic cotton, the cumulative and weekly export contract volume of the US to China, and the monthly and annual cumulative import volume of domestic cotton yarn [41][43][45]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Show the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [47]. - **Sales Progress**: Include the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [50]. - **Inventory**: Include the weekly commercial inventory of domestic cotton, the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory, and the raw material and finished - product inventories of spinning mills [53][55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: Show the net positions of CFTC funds and commercial entities [59]. - **US Situation**: Include the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the cotton good - to - excellent rate, the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volume, production and planted area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [61][63][70][72][73]. - **Brazil Situation**: Include the planted area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton [75][78][80]. - **India Situation**: Include the planted area, production, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [83][86][88].

Core Viewpoint - Cotton is evolving from a traditional textile material to a multifunctional resource, capable of producing valuable compounds like astaxanthin through advanced biotechnological methods [4][12]. Group 1: Cotton's Traditional Uses - Cotton fibers are categorized into three main types: coarse short-staple cotton, fine-staple cotton, and long-staple cotton, each serving different textile applications [4]. - The majority of cotton grown in China is fine-staple cotton, which is widely used in everyday textiles and medical supplies [4]. Group 2: Innovative Applications - The development of engineered cotton capable of producing astaxanthin, a potent natural antioxidant, represents a significant advancement in cotton's utility [6][12]. - Astaxanthin is recognized for its superior antioxidant properties compared to vitamin E and β-carotene, with applications in food, feed, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics [6]. Group 3: By-products and Sustainability - Cotton seeds are a major source of edible oil and protein for animal feed, with cottonseed meal being the second-largest source of plant protein in China [8]. - Cotton by-products, such as cottonseed hulls and short fibers, have diverse applications in food, pharmaceuticals, and biodegradable materials, enhancing the overall value of cotton production [9][10]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The integration of synthetic biology in cotton research is expected to lead to the development of new cotton varieties with enhanced functionalities and colors, reducing environmental impact from dyeing processes [12]. - The ongoing research aims to expand cotton's application across agriculture, food, health products, energy, and environmental sectors, positioning cotton as a versatile and sustainable resource [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The successful implementation of a 5 million yuan cotton income insurance in the Kashgar region marks the launch of an innovative model combining "income insurance + order purchasing + off-market options," aimed at ensuring stable income for cotton farmers and enhancing financial services for rural revitalization [1][2]. Group 1: Insurance Model - The innovative model integrates income insurance with order purchasing and off-market options, moving beyond traditional insurance limitations [2]. - Income insurance focuses on the final revenue target of farmers, covering both price fluctuations and yield losses, thus addressing complex risk scenarios [2]. - The model creates a closed-loop system where price risks are hedged, sales are secured through orders, and income is guaranteed [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Support and Impact - The pilot project in 2024 covers 6,870 acres, with insurance claims amounting to 561,400 yuan, effectively addressing both price drops and yield losses [2]. - In 2025, the pilot will expand to cover 42,000 acres with a guaranteed amount exceeding 109.2 million yuan, supported by various financial contributions [3]. - The local government's financial involvement significantly enhances the coverage and effectiveness of agricultural support policies, demonstrating a successful model for rural financial services [4].

Report Title - "20250809 Cotton Weekly Report: As the Golden September and Silver October Approach, Focus on Short - Long Opportunities Before the New Cotton Goes on the Market" [1] Core View - With the approaching of the Golden September and Silver October, attention should be paid to short - long opportunities before the new cotton goes on the market. Compared with the June forecast, the data adjustment this time is bearish, with the increase in production exceeding that in consumption, leading to an expected increase in global ending inventory in the new year. However, there may be further room for adjustment in China's production, and the optimistic global consumption forecast may lead to a further increase in ending inventory [4][5] Cotton Supply and Demand Balance (July) Production - In the 2025/26 season, global production is expected to increase by 311,000 tons month - on - month to 2.578 million tons. China's production is expected to increase by 218,000 tons to 674,900 tons, the US by 131,000 tons to 304,800 tons, and Pakistan's production is expected to decrease by 44,000 tons to 108,900 tons [4] Consumption - Global consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 78,000 tons month - on - month to 2.5718 million tons. Pakistan's consumption is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 237,300 tons [5] Trade - Global imports and exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to decline slightly by 20,000 - 30,000 tons month - on - month. China's imports are expected to decrease by 152,000 tons to 126,300 tons, and Pakistan's imports are expected to increase by 131,000 tons to 128,400 tons [5] Ending Inventory - Global ending inventory in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 113,000 tons month - on - month to 1.6833 million tons. China's ending inventory is expected to increase by 11,000 tons to 807,000 tons, and the US's by 65,000 tons to 100,100 tons [5] Cotton and Yarn Spot and Futures Cotton Spot and Futures - Cotton prices increased during the week, and the basis was relatively strong [6] Yarn Spot and Futures - Yarn prices were weak during the week, and the terminal's price - holding ability was poor [11] Supply Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory - This week, the national industrial and commercial cotton inventory decreased by 150,400 tons to 2.8637 million tons, lower than the same period by 97,100 tons. The available days of pure - cotton yarn inventory increased by 0.06 days to 31.93 days, and the terminal grey fabric inventory increased by 0.42 days to 30.99 days. The finished product replenishment speed slowed down further [14] Imported Cotton and Yarn - In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the cumulative import was about 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 74.3%. In June, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 0.1% and a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons [16] Cotton Warehouse Receipts - As of August 8, the registered cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou decreased by 432 to 8,252, with 330 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 8,582, equivalent to 343,280 tons of cotton. As cotton prices stabilized after falling, the willingness of some cotton - using enterprises to take over warehouse receipts at low prices increased [18] Demand Factory Operation Rate and Profit - This week, the spinning mill operation rate decreased by 0.9% to 65.7%, and the weaving mill operation rate decreased by 0.1% to 37%. The spinning mill orders decreased by 0.49 days to 6.84 days. The on - the - spot profit of the mainstream yarn in the inland increased to - 1,595.8 yuan/ton, and the expected profit of enterprises in Xinjiang recovered to 400 yuan/ton [20] Market Transactions - This week, the total turnover in the Light Textile City decreased by 282,000 meters to 4.622 million meters, and the cotton cloth turnover decreased by 60,000 meters to 170,000 meters. In Keqiao, the accessory price decreased by 2.29 to 114.15, and the fabric price increased by 1.46 to 112.12 [23] Social Consumption - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the cumulative total was 2.45458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles of enterprises above the designated size in June reached 127.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [24] Export Situation - From January to July 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 170.74 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In July, the export was 26.77 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 2%. In June, China's clothing and textile exports to the US increased, while those to the EU and ASEAN showed different trends [27][33] Industry PMI - In June, the cotton textile industry PMI decreased by 1.95% to 47.71%, remaining below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New order PMI increased by 3.15% to 44.68%, and the operation rate PMI increased by 1.04% to 52.13%. The yarn inventory PMI increased by 12.74% to 63.83%, and the cotton inventory increased by 3.29% to 48.94% [35] CFTC Position Data - The net short positions of non - commercial and fund investors increased slightly [36]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the main cotton contract switched to the 01 contract, which temporarily stopped falling and consolidated sideways. The ICAC 8 - month report and USDA 7 - month report provide different 2025/26 annual production and consumption data. Customs data shows that textile and clothing exports in July decreased year - on - year, and cotton imports in June decreased significantly year - on - year while cotton yarn imports increased slightly. The Sino - US trade negotiation has been postponed, and the textile export data in July is not ideal. Currently in the consumption off - season, the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear. The 01 contract is expected to be weak in the future [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 1) Previous Day Review This week, the main cotton contract switched to the 01 contract, which stopped falling and consolidated sideways. There are different data on cotton production, consumption, and inventory from various institutions. The Sino - US trade negotiation is postponed, and textile export data is not good [4]. 2) Daily Tips - **Likely Positive Factors**: Reduction of previous Sino - US mutual tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Postponement of trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, consumption off - season, overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3) Today's Focus No specific content is provided in the report. 4) Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast (July)**: In 2024/25, the total global cotton production is 2578.3 million tons, with different production changes in various countries. Consumption is also different among countries, with a total of [not clearly stated]. Import and export volumes vary by country, and the global期末库存 is 1683.5 million tons [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 2590 million tons, consumption is 2560 million tons,期末库存 is 1710 million tons, and the global trade volume is 970 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents/pound [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In 2025/26, China's cotton production is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and期末库存 is 823 million tons. The domestic cotton 3128B average price is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [13]. 5) Position Data No specific content is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall cotton market shows a trend of slight strength in a volatile pattern. The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a similar trend. The main influencing factors include the supply - demand relationship, policy environment, and weather conditions [8][22][38][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and little change in the fundamentals, the growth progress of US cotton is slightly slow, but the excellent - good rate is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that the US cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of August 3, the budding rate of US cotton was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average. The excellent - good rate was 55%, 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. The main producing areas are hot and dry, but the drought degree is low [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week ending July 31, the net cancellation of US cotton contracts was 0.39 tons, a decrease of 1.28 tons compared to the previous week. The cumulative contract volume was 267.39 tons, a 2% year - on - year decrease. The shipment volume was 4.14 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons compared to the previous week. The cumulative shipment volume was 253.82 tons, a 1% year - on - year increase [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of August 1, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 2,841 to 22,767, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 2,574 to 44,397, equivalent to 1.01 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers on ICE increased to 50,228, equivalent to 1.14 million tons, a decrease of 2,640 compared to the previous week, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **India**: As of August 1, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.587 million hectares, 256,000 hectares lower than the same period last year. The cotton planting target is 12.95 million hectares, and it is difficult to achieve this target. From July 31 to August 6, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was 19mm, 45.5mm lower than the normal level and 51.9mm lower than the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall from June 1 to August 6 was 493.1mm, 22.4mm higher than the normal level. This week, the precipitation in India decreased significantly, mainly due to the decrease in precipitation in central India [8]. - **Brazil**: As of the week ending August 2, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 29.7%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the previous week, but 8% slower than the same period last year. The harvesting is slower than usual, mainly because the planting progress in Mato Grosso was affected by rain during the planting stage, resulting in a delay in harvesting. However, the cotton is reported to be in good growth condition, and it is expected that the quality of the cotton on the market will be good in the later stage. With the completion of corn and wheat harvesting, it is expected that the cotton supply on the market will accelerate [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Overall Situation**: The market's focus has gradually shifted to the demand side. The current commercial inventory on the supply side is still at a low level in the same period over the years, and the cotton supply may be slightly tight at the end of the year. On the demand side, as the off - season gradually transitions to the peak season, the current downstream demand shows no obvious changes. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern in the short term [22]. - **Supply Side**: As of mid - July, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 28,740 tons compared to the previous period, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of July 24, the cumulative sales volume of cotton in the 2024 season was 6.44 million tons, 1.026 million tons higher than the five - year average. As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.1571 million tons, a decrease of 148,500 tons (a decrease of 6.44%) compared to the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.4111 million tons, a decrease of 132,200 tons (a decrease of 8.57%) compared to the previous week, and the commercial cotton in the inland areas was 410,600 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons (an increase of 0.39%) compared to the previous week [22]. - **Demand Side**: Currently in the off - season of market consumption, as of mid - July, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises in China was 882,100 tons, a decrease of 20,900 tons compared to the previous period. The yarn inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 28.36 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 37.24 days. As of August 7, the operating load of spinning enterprises in the mainstream areas was 65.7%, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the previous week. The operating rate continued to decline. Although the cotton price decreased, the inland spinning enterprises still had no profit, and the situation of shutdown and reduction of shifts continued to increase. The profit of conventional yarn in Xinjiang was meager, and the operation was temporarily stable. The operating rate in the inland areas was 40 - 50%, and that in Xinjiang was maintained at 80 - 90% [22]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Trend Judgment**: On August 8, 2025, the 10 - day historical volatility of cotton was 10.1107, and the volatility decreased compared to the previous day. - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: On August 8, 2025, the trading volume of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to sell put options [34][36]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a similar trend [40]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [40]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The report provides the historical data of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 - month price difference trend [43][44]. - **Mid - end Situation**: It includes the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, the yarn inventory days, and the grey fabric inventory days [47]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The report shows the historical data of cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [49]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It includes the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, and the basis of US cotton [52].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE) main contract 2509 decreased by 0.22%, closing at 13,640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The positions and trading volume both decreased, with the main force gradually shifting to the next contract. The ICE cotton slightly declined, dropping 0.84% overnight to close at 66.36 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to the meeting between the leaders of Russia and the United States, the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the marginal impact of domestic policies [2]. - Internationally, due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand situation and the weak export demand for US cotton, the international cotton price generally maintains a weak consolidation trend. Domestically, although the de - stocking trend of cotton commercial inventory is good, it remains at a high level. The main contract is in the process of position - shifting. With the high probability of a good harvest of new cotton this year and the continued slump in demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - The ZCE main contract 2509 of cotton decreased by 0.22%, closing at 13,640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The positions and trading volume both decreased, and the main force is shifting contracts. The ICE cotton dropped 0.84% overnight, closing at 66.36 cents/pound [2]. 3.2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 8, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,582 (-95) sheets, including 8,252 (-77) registered warehouse receipts and 330 (-18) valid forecasts [3]. - In July, enterprises with an operating rate of 90% and above accounted for 38.78%, a decrease of 10.16 percentage points from the previous month; those with an operating rate of 61% - 89% accounted for 38.78%, an increase of 11.12 percentage points; those with an operating rate of 31% - 60% accounted for 22.45%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points; and no enterprises had an operating rate below 30%, the same as the previous month [4][5]. - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% [5]. - In the week of July 31, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton was - 3,901 tons, and the shipment was 41,345 tons. There was no signing of Pima cotton, and the shipment was 2,041 tons. The carry - over to the 2025/26 new - year cotton was 135,715 tons. As of the same period, the net signing of 2025/26 - year land cotton was 24,789 tons, and the net signing of Pima cotton was 1,202 tons. The shipment of the new year has not started. In the week, 7,099 tons of 2026/27 - year land cotton were signed, and no Pima cotton was signed for the next year. China's net signing volume of 2025/26 - year land cotton was - 23 tons and the shipment was 0 tons. 522 tons of Pima cotton were signed, and no Pima cotton was shipped. 249 tons of new - year cotton resources were signed [5]. - As of July 31, 2025, China had cumulatively signed and imported 169,000 tons of US cotton in the 2024/25 year, accounting for 6.07% of the signed US cotton; the cumulative shipment of US cotton was 166,000 tons, accounting for 6.31% of the total US cotton shipment and 98.68% of China's signed volume [6]. - In June, China imported 560 million US dollars of intermediate products, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%, including 360 million US dollars of imported yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%, and 200 million US dollars of imported fabrics, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. In terms of exports, in June, China exported 6.92 billion US dollars of intermediate products, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%, including 1.24 billion US dollars of exported yarn, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and 5.68 billion US dollars of exported fabrics, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [6]. 3.3. Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spreads, textile profits, cotton import profits, yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantities, and non - commercial positions [8][9][11][12]. 3.4. Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US Middle East envoy has arrived in Russia, and Trump has set August 8 as the "deadline" for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine war. The future policies and sanctions of the Trump administration after August 8 can be continuously monitored. The international cotton price maintains a weak consolidation trend due to factors such as loose supply - demand and weak export demand [14]. - Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory is de - stocking well but remains at a high level. The main contract is shifting positions. With the high probability of a good harvest of new cotton this year and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengzhou cotton is limited [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zhengmian's main 2509 contract rose 0.26%, closing at 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. US cotton rose slightly, with an overnight increase of 0.81%, closing at 67.16 cents/pound ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. - Internationally, the deterioration of the US employment market may delay the Fed's policy shift, and investors are betting on an early start of the Fed's cyclical interest rate cuts. Due to factors such as the continuous loose global cotton supply - demand and weak US cotton export demand, international cotton prices remain in a weak consolidation state. Domestically, although the destocking trend of cotton commercial inventory is good, it is still at a high level. With high - yield new cotton this year and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengmian is limited [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Zhengmian's main 2509 contract rose 0.26%, closing at 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. US cotton rose slightly, with an overnight increase of 0.81%, closing at 67.16 cents/pound ICE. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 6, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8,812 (-99) sheets, including 8,464 (-99) registered warehouse receipts and 348 (+0) valid forecasts [3]. - In July 2025, the China Garment E - commerce Prosperity Index was 49.62, down 0.72 from the previous month. The sub - indexes such as production and e - commerce also declined. The garment e - commerce industry entered the off - season in July, and the prosperity index decreased [3][4]. - On August 6, the average arrival price of 3128 lint cotton nationwide was 15,122 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the price of 32s pure - cotton yarn ring - spun was 21,615 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton; the spinning profit was - 1,019.2 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton. Rising raw material cotton prices led to a decrease in the immediate spinning profit of textile enterprises [4]. - As of August 3, the budding rate of cotton in the US was 87%, 3 percentage points behind last year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average [4]. - As of the week ending August 2, Egypt's net cotton export contracts were 615 tons, a 56.4% increase from the previous week, all of which were Giza 94 cotton [4]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report provides data charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, spreads, textile profits, cotton and yarn import profits, warehouse receipt quantities, and non - commercial positions, with data sources from Wind and Jinshi Futures Research Institute [1][5][6][9][11][13]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategies - Internationally, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the labor participation rate continued to decline. The "pseudo - unemployment" phenomenon may delay the Fed's policy shift. International cotton prices are in a weak consolidation state due to loose supply - demand and weak US cotton export demand. Domestically, the cotton commercial inventory is destocking well but remains high. With potential high - yield new cotton and weak demand, the upward space for Zhengmian is limited [14].

北京时间8月6日，美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货价格偏强运行，今日开盘报67.16美分/磅，现报每 吨67.49美分/磅，涨幅0.49%，盘中最高触及67.72美分/磅，最低下探67.15美分/磅。 8月5日，郑商所棉花期货仓单8911张，环比上个交易日减少121张。 2024/25年度全国棉花加工企业按照棉花质量检验体制改革方案的要求加工棉花并进行公证检验统计， 截至2024年08月04日24点，累计公检30127638包，合计6803087吨，同比增加18.79%，新疆棉累计公检 量6432548吨，同比增加15.22%；其中，锯齿细绒棉检验数量29909508包，皮辊细绒棉检验数量9250 包，长绒棉检验数量208880包。 据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至8月2日，巴西棉花收割率为29.7%，上周为 21.7%，去年同期为36.7%，五年均值为46.1%。 棉花期货行情回顾： 8月5日美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 66.61 67.44 66.51 67.08 0.75% 【棉花市场消息速递】 ...

Group 1: Main Views - This month, cotton prices first rose and then fell. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was bearish, with increased planting area, slightly decreased yield per unit, and slightly increased ending stocks. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate, and the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, suppressing U.S. commodities. The weather in U.S. cotton-growing areas was favorable, and the export of U.S. cotton was weak. In China, the commercial cotton inventory was decreasing, imports were low, downstream demand was in the off - season, and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariff measures was negative for cotton textile exports. The new cotton in Xinjiang was in the full - bloom stage, and the high - temperature situation had eased [6]. - The strategy is to note that the good weather in U.S. cotton - growing areas and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariffs have pressured U.S. cotton to fluctuate weakly. In China, low imports and continuous consumption of commercial inventory have led to a relatively fast de - stocking process, but downstream demand is still weak, and Sino - U.S. tariffs continue to suppress terminal exports. With an increase in the planting area of new - season cotton and the alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang, Zhengzhou cotton first rose and then fell. Pay attention to weather changes in growing areas, and Zhengzhou cotton will continue to bottom out at a low level [6]. Group 2: Market Review - As of July 31, the ICE U.S. cotton 12 contract closed at 67.22 cents per pound, down 0.82 points from the previous month's close, with a monthly decline of 1.21%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,650 yuan per ton, down 90 points from the opening, with a monthly decline of 0.66% [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis External Market - U.S. Cotton - **Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, the planting area is expected to be 10.12 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 acres; the harvest area is expected to be 8.66 million acres, an increase of 470,000 acres; the yield per unit is expected to be 809 pounds per acre, a decrease of 11 pounds per acre; the output is expected to be 14.6 million bales, an increase of 600,000 bales; the total supply is expected to be 18.71 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales; the total consumption is expected to be 14.2 million bales, unchanged; the ending stocks are expected to be 4.6 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales [15][16]. - **Goodness - to - Grade Ratio**: As of the week of July 27, the goodness - to - grade ratio of U.S. cotton was 55%, lower than the previous week but higher than the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average; the squaring rate was 80%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [20]. - **Exports**: As of July 24, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2024/2025 season were 39,000 bales, compared with - 33,000 bales in the previous week; the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 72,000 bales, compared with 133,000 bales in the previous week. The cumulative export sales were 1.0088 million bales, accounting for 93.31% of the July USDA report [24]. Domestic Market - **Spinning Mills' Operation**: As of July 31, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 66.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%. The operating rate continued to decline, downstream orders did not change significantly, and the sales of spinning mills were slow. The operating rate of inland spinning mills was about 50%, while that in Xinjiang remained stable [28]. - **Spinning Mills' Inventory**: As of July 31, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of days was 27.80 days, and the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.7 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% [31]. - **Cotton Inventory**: As of July 25, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.3056 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 151,900 tons (a decrease of 6.18%). As of July 31, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 5.07% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 335,400 tons [34].