| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月26日 | | | 問敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 张跃 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3250 | 3240 | 10 | 144 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3210 | 10 | 114 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3330 | 3310 | 20 | 224 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3125 | 3118 | 1 | 125 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3172 | 3167 | 5 | 78 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3106 | 3089 | 17 | 144 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3300 | 3290 | 10 | -9 | 7G/ 中 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3240 | 3220 | 20 | -69 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: On November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, significantly boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is turning, and it's advisable to follow key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [6]. - Domestic: Domestic endogenous momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The loan prime rate has been stable since May's 10 - basis - point cut. New and second - hand housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but land transactions remain low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [6]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, the Fed's October meeting minutes being hawkish, and strong September non - farm payrolls data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. After the New York Fed President's dovish speech, the market risk appetite may improve in the short term. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a near - term rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Endogenous momentum is weak. Policy - based financial instruments, special bond issuance, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure. The loan prime rate has been stable. Housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but real - estate physical work has declined [6]. - **Asset Views**: Due to Fed policy uncertainties, asset prices were initially pressured. After the dovish speech, market risk appetite may improve. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index has slowed, and hedging forces are taking profits. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention on option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed higher. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on the implementation of monetary policies [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The fundamentals are improving, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly weakened, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policies [7]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand have slightly declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Near - month delivery is under pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weakened with the sector, but cost support remains. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price has declined with the sector, but cost support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Spot losses are increasing, and cold - repair expectations are rising. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Coal prices have fallen, weakening cost support. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to differences within the Fed, copper prices are consolidating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation persists, and prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on ore production and electrolytic aluminum复产 [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory is decreasing, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro risks and zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Social inventory has decreased, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless - steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - **Tin**: Raw - material supply is tight, and prices are strongly supported. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on Wa State's复产 and demand [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply pressure remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and policies [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are volatile, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and domestic photovoltaic policies [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trading sentiment has cooled, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are volatile, and supply pressure continues. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on cost - side developments [9]. - **Asphalt**: The rise of rebar prices has driven up asphalt futures. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The expectation of a Russia - Ukraine agreement has weakened fuel prices. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has followed the weak crude - oil market. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disturbances are confirmed, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro - energy and overseas production stoppages [9]. - **Urea**: Centralized procurement has slowed, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on export quotas and Indian tenders [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and some short - sellers have closed positions. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade [9]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and prices are adjusting. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations, macro events, and aromatics blending [9]. - **PTA**: Fundamentals have improved marginally, and profits are being repaired. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations and macro events [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand is stable, and it follows the upstream market. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on downstream purchasing and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Cost support has increased, and prices have rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on production cuts and new - plant commissioning [9]. - **Propylene**: The spot market is strong, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: Fundamental pressure is priced in, and attention should be paid to maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance has increased slightly, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has faded, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices, macro policies, and plant operations [9]. - **PVC**: High inventory is suppressing prices, and it may be tied to production cuts. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - valuation and weak supply - demand conditions lead to price fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are diverging, with palm oil being weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Rapeseed - meal prices have risen, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to narrow. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Bullish drivers continue, and prices have risen again. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on demand, the macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant, and prices are weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Floods in production areas have boosted bullish sentiment, but the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, raw - material prices, and the macro - economy [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw - material transactions support prices. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices have rebounded, and the 1 - 5 spread has widened. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have continued to rebound. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - **Pulp**: The balance of long and short factors remains, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the macro - economy and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Paper**: It is following the raw - material market and fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on shipments and dispatches [9].

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]

Group 1 - Huafeng Co., Ltd. announced a stock suspension due to a potential change in control after signing a share transfer intention agreement [1] - Keshida plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 424,000 shares, representing 0.07% of its total share capital [1] - Jinqilin intends to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 yuan per share, totaling 19.61 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Rejingshi Biotech has repurchased 904,100 shares, accounting for 0.98% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of 150 million yuan [2] - Yishitong has repurchased 1,236,500 shares, representing 0.619% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately 33.49 million yuan [2] Group 3 - Hanjia Design announced the release of a detention on its subsidiary's chairman, allowing him to resume duties [4] - Qingmu Technology plans to acquire 65.83% of Vitalis Pharma AS for 300 million Norwegian Krone (approximately 212 million yuan) [4] - Anda Intelligent's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 2.74% [4] Group 4 - Wansheng Intelligent is a candidate for a project with a pre-bid amount of approximately 42.99 million yuan, representing 4.56% of its audited revenue for 2024 [4] - Yipin Hong received a drug registration certificate for a medication used to treat Alzheimer's symptoms [4] Group 5 - *ST Sansheng received a total of 254 million yuan from restructuring investors [4] - Haichuang Pharmaceutical received approval for clinical trials of HP518 tablets for advanced prostate cancer treatment [4] Group 6 - Ningbo Huaxiang's subsidiary plans to invest 5 million yuan in a venture capital fund focusing on intelligent industries [4] - Petty Co. plans to repurchase shares worth 50 to 70 million yuan [4] Group 7 - Tongji Technology's subsidiary won a construction project with a bid price of 866 million yuan [4] - Prolo Pharmaceutical received a drug registration certificate for a generic drug [4] Group 8 - Jingyan Technology plans to use up to 1.6 billion yuan of idle funds for financial management [4] - Furan De received government subsidies totaling 34.65 million yuan [4] Group 9 - David Medical's subsidiary's medical device registration has been accepted [4] - Jusaylong plans to increase its subsidiary's capital by 170 million yuan through debt-to-equity conversion [4] Group 10 - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's application for a drug license has been accepted by the National Medical Products Administration [4] - Lege Co. plans to increase its stake in the company by 40 to 80 million yuan [4] Group 11 - New Beiyang's subsidiary won a project with the Bank of Communications [4] - Jiangxi Changyun plans to publicly transfer land use rights and buildings with a starting price of 7.79 million yuan [4] Group 12 - Shenqi Pharmaceutical's subsidiary has paid approximately 16.67 million yuan in tax and penalties [4] - Panjiang Co. plans to invest 1.334 billion yuan in a power plant project [4] Group 13 - Fashilong's vice president resigned for personal reasons [4] - Chunxue Food received government subsidies of 3.79 million yuan [4] Group 14 - China Galaxy completed the repayment of a short-term financing bond totaling 3.025 billion yuan [4] - Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical received approval for a chemical raw material drug [4] Group 15 - Longqi Technology's subsidiary plans to invest 30 million yuan in a venture capital fund [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights a focus on sectors with "inventory stabilization at low levels, capacity structure optimization, and continuous improvement in prosperity" for December [1][5] - The market experienced significant fluctuations due to multiple factors, including the cooling of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and ongoing inflation concerns, with cyclical sectors and defensive industries performing relatively well [1][5] - Recommended sectors for investment include non-bank financials, power equipment (batteries, inverters, wind power equipment), defense and military, coal, basic chemicals, and steel [1][5] Group 2 - Economic data from January to October indicates a continuous slowdown, influenced by high bases, anti-involution policies, and reduced local investment [5] - The report notes that the supply side has seen significant capacity clearance, with some industries beginning to see improvements in capacity utilization rates as demand recovers [5][9] - The report emphasizes that the third quarter saw an unexpected improvement in A-share earnings, particularly in consumer services, resource products, and midstream manufacturing [5][9] Group 3 - The report identifies specific sectors for attention, including non-bank financials, where leading brokerages are accelerating consolidation, and insurance companies are expected to see high growth in profitability [6] - In the power equipment sector, the supply-demand landscape is improving, with prices in the new energy and photovoltaic supply chain continuing to rise [6] - The defense and military sector is expected to benefit from increased global military spending and demand for military trade, driven by geopolitical tensions [6] Group 4 - The coal industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to stricter safety regulations, with winter heating supporting stable demand for thermal coal [6] - Basic chemicals are seeing a structural improvement in demand, particularly in the pesticide sector, which is benefiting from reduced internal competition [6] - The steel industry is expected to see structural opportunities driven by high-end manufacturing demand, particularly from emerging industries like new energy vehicles and humanoid robots [6]

Price-Related Summary - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index is at 1,045.84, down 16.48 from last week [3] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.38 per barrel, an increase of $0.37 from last week, while WTI crude oil settled at $59.00 per barrel, up $0.31 [3] - Average wholesale prices for vegetables decreased by ¥0.04 per kg, fruits by ¥0.01 per kg, pork by ¥0.15 per kg, beef by ¥0.25 per kg, and lamb by ¥0.40 per kg [3] Industrial-Related Summary - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index is at 3,456.21, down 66.82 from last week [14] - Glass futures closed at ¥987 per ton, down ¥45 per ton, and coking coal futures closed at ¥1,103 per ton, down ¥89 per ton [14] - The blast furnace operating rate is recorded at 82.17%, a decrease of 2.08% from last week, while the operating rate for petroleum asphalt is at 24.80%, down 4.20% [14] Real Estate Investment Summary - The land transaction area in 100 major cities is approximately 13,497,800 square meters, an increase of 7,013,200 square meters from last week [21] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities is about 1,725,600 square meters, up 330,500 square meters from last week [21] - The second-hand housing listing price index is recorded at 148.80, down 0.26, with the decline rate less than the previous week [21] Transportation and Retail Summary - Subway passenger volumes increased significantly, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing changes of -1.16%, 2.41%, 4.17%, and 1.91% respectively [31] - Box office revenue reached ¥656 million, an increase of ¥444 million from last week [31] - Retail sales of passenger cars totaled 67,312 units, up 21,256 units from last week [31] - The number of domestic flights executed was 86,716, an increase of 822 from last week [31]

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年11月21日 | | | 周敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | Wite | 削值 | 不跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | 160 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 170 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3290 | 3300 | -10 | 240 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 309d | 3116 | -17 | 111 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3143 | 3162 | -19 | 67 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3050 | 3070 | -20 | 160 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3280 | -10 | 3 | 元/中 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | -51 | | | ...

| | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【201】1292号 2025年11月20日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 张庆 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 150 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3230 | 3240 | -10 | 160 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3300 | 3300 | 0 | 230 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3116 | 3139 | -23 | 104 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3162 | 3180 | -18 | 58 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3070 | 3090 | -20 | 150 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3280 | 0 | 3 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3220 | 3210 | 10 | -57 | | | 热卷现货(华 ...

Report on the Steel Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market shows a weakening trend with falling prices and mixed production and inventory changes. The iron ore supply chain has a negative feedback basis, and it is not recommended to go long. For steel, with the decline in apparent demand and unsold inventory, a short - side attempt can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - **Threaded Steel**: Spot prices in different regions (East, North, South) are between 3220 - 3300 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0 - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Futures contract prices also decreased, with the 05 contract down 23 yuan, the 10 contract down 18 yuan, and the 01 contract down 20 yuan [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Spot prices in different regions are between 3220 - 3300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 - 10 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices decreased, with the 05 contract down 14 yuan, the 10 contract down 16 yuan, and the 01 contract down 9 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Steel billet price is 2970 yuan/ton (unchanged), and slab price is 3730 yuan/ton (unchanged). The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel is 3254 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the cost of Jiangsu converter threaded steel is 3189 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. - **Profit**: East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 77 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 147 yuan/ton (unchanged); East China threaded steel profit is - 127 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; South China threaded steel profit is 43 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Production - **Daily Average Hot - Metal Output**: It is 236.8 tons, up 2.6 tons or 1.1% [1]. - **Output of Five Major Steel Products**: It is 834.4 tons, down 22.4 tons or - 2.6%. Threaded steel output is 200.0 tons, down 8.5 tons or - 4.1%, including a 1.2 - ton or - 4.0% decrease in electric - furnace output and a 7.4 - ton or - 4.1% decrease in converter output. Hot - rolled coil output is 313.7 tons, down 4.5 tons or - 1.4% [1]. Inventory - **Inventory of Five Major Steel Products**: It is 1477.4 tons, down 26.2 tons or - 1.7%. Threaded steel inventory is 576.2 tons, down 16.4 tons or - 2.8%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 410.5 tons, with a negligible change [1]. Transaction and Demand - **Building Materials Transaction Volume**: It is 9.2 tons, down 0.4 tons or - 4.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 860.6 tons, down 6.3 tons or - 0.7%. The apparent demand for threaded steel is 216.4 tons, down 2.2 tons or - 1.0%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 313.6 tons, down 0.7 tons or - 0.2% [1]. Report on the Ore Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures oscillated. Although the hot - metal output rebounded this week, there is limited room for further increase. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. It is expected that iron ore will show a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders (Carol, PB, Brazilian Blend, Jinbuba) remained unchanged [5]. - **01 Contract Basis**: The basis of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the basis of Carol powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.4%, PB powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 1.0%, Brazilian Blend powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 0.8%, and Jinbuba powder up 0.5 yuan/ton or 1.0% [5]. - **Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread is 25.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan or 6.4%; the 9 - 1 spread is - 61.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan or - 6.0%; the 1 - 5 spread is 36.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan or 5.8% [5]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - **Spot Prices at Rizhao Port**: The spot prices of various iron ore powders (Carol, PB, Brazilian Blend, Jinbuba) remained unchanged. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 104.5 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars or - 0.1%, and the Platts 62% Fe is 105.2 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars or - 0.1% [5]. Supply - **Arrival Volume at 45 Ports (Weekly)**: It is 2268.9 tons, down 472.3 tons or - 17.2%. - **Global Shipment Volume (Weekly)**: It is 3516.4 tons, up 447.4 tons or 14.6%. - **National Monthly Import Volume**: It is 11632.6 tons, up 1111.6 tons or 10.6% [5]. Demand - **Daily Average Hot - Metal of 247 Steel Mills (Weekly)**: It is 236.9 tons, up 2.7 tons or 1.1%. - **Daily Average Out - Port Volume at 45 Ports (Weekly)**: It is 327.0 tons, up 6.0 tons or 1.9%. - **National Monthly Pig Iron Output**: It is 6554.9 tons, down 49.7 tons or - 0.8%. - **National Monthly Crude Steel Output**: It is 7199.7 tons, down 149.3 tons or - 2.0% [5]. Inventory Change - **Inventory at 45 Ports (Weekly)**: It is 15114.45 tons, down 15.3 tons or - 0.1%. - **Imported Ore Inventory of 247 Steel Mills (Weekly)**: It is 9076.0 tons, up 66.1 tons or 0.7%. - **Inventory Availability Days of 64 Steel Mills (Weekly)**: It is 21.0 days, unchanged [5]. Report on the Coke and Coking Coal Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Coke futures continued to decline, and the fourth round of price increases by mainstream coking enterprises has been fully implemented. Coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. For both coke and coking coal, a short - side oscillation is expected, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - **Coke Spot and Futures**: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipts) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract is 1639 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or - 0.6%, and the 05 contract is 1796 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.0% [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 basis is 7 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread is - 157 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [8]. - **Coking Profit**: The coking profit of the Steel Union (weekly) is - 54 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [8]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - **Coking Coal Spot and Futures**: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1264 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or - 2.1%. The coking coal 01 contract is 1140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 1.7%, and the 05 contract is 1211 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or - 1.7% [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 01 basis is 125 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread is - 71 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [8]. - **Sample Coal Mine Profit**: The sample coal mine profit (weekly) is 569 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 4.2% [8]. Supply - **Coke Production (Weekly)**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.0 tons, down 0.6 tons or - 0.9%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.2 tons, up 0.1 tons or 0.2% [8]. - **Coking Coal Production (Weekly)**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 853.8 tons, up 5.4 tons or 0.6%, and the clean coal output is 435.7 tons, up 2.7 tons or 0.6% [8]. Demand - **Hot - Metal Production (Weekly)**: The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 236.9 tons, up 2.7 tons or 1.1%. - **Coke Demand (Weekly)**: Reflected in the coke production requirements, with the change of coking plant and steel mill production [8]. Inventory Change - **Coke Inventory (Weekly)**: The total coke inventory is 879.4 tons, down 7.7 tons or - 0.9%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased [8]. - **Coking Coal Inventory (Weekly)**: The clean coal inventory of some coal mines is 87.6 tons, up 7.2 tons or 9.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports has different changes, with an overall median increase [8]. Supply - Demand Gap - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap (Weekly)**: It is - 5.5 tons, down 1.8 tons or - 32.5% [8].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints Steel prices are stable, but the basis is weakening. Coke coal prices have dropped significantly, while iron ore prices are rising. The overall demand for five major steel products is declining, and steel mills are reducing production. However, the daily average hot metal production has increased, which is expected to lead to a rebound in the output of finished steel products. In terms of different varieties, the production and inventory of rebar are decreasing, with relatively few contradictions. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are basically balanced, but the inventory is at a high level and has not been cleared, so the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. The port inventory of iron ore is continuously accumulating, and the supply of iron elements in the January contract is becoming more abundant, so it is not recommended to go long. On a single side, the apparent demand for steel is falling, and the inventory has not been cleared, so a short position can be considered [1]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in different regions have shown different degrees of change. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts and hot-rolled coils 05, 10, and 01 contracts have all declined. The profit margins of steel products in different regions and production processes have also changed, with some showing an increase and some a decrease [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The prices of steel billets and slab billets remain unchanged. The cost of electric furnace rebar in Jiangsu is stable, while the cost of converter rebar has decreased. The profit margins of hot-rolled coils in different regions have increased to varying degrees [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot metal production has increased by 2.6 to 236.8, a rise of 1.1%. The production of five major steel products has decreased by 22.4 to 834.4, a decline of 2.6%. The production of rebar has decreased by 8.5 to 200.0, a decline of 4.1%, including a 4.0% decrease in electric furnace production and a 4.1% decrease in converter production. The production of hot-rolled coils has decreased by 4.5 to 313.7, a decline of 1.4% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 26.2 to 1477.4, a decline of 1.7%. The inventory of rebar has decreased by 16.4 to 576.2, a decline of 2.8%. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has remained basically unchanged [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume has decreased by 3.7 to 9.6, a decline of 27.9%. The apparent demand for five major steel products has decreased by 6.3 to 860.6, a decline of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar has decreased by 2.2 to 216.4, a decline of 1.0%. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has decreased by 0.7 to 313.6, a decline of 0.2% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The iron ore futures continued to rebound yesterday. On the supply side, the global shipment volume of iron ore has increased week-on-week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has continued to decline. However, based on recent shipment data, the average arrival volume in the future is expected to increase. On the demand side, the profit margin of steel mills has slightly declined, the hot metal production has increased, and the replenishment demand of steel mills has increased. From the data of five major steel products, it can be seen that the production and inventory are continuing to decline seasonally, the apparent demand is decreasing, and the demand is weakening. In terms of inventory, the port inventory is accumulating, but the inventory of deliverable products is low. The port clearance volume has increased, and the equity ore inventory of steel mills has risen. Looking forward, although the hot metal production has increased this week, there is limited room for further increase. The current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills are not sufficient to trigger a negative feedback. It is expected that iron ore will show a high-level oscillating trend, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended for single-side trading [5]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The basis of iron ore 01 contract for different varieties has decreased to varying degrees. The 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 1.0 to 23.5, a decline of 4.1%. The 9 - 1 spread has decreased by 1.5 to -58.0, a decline of 2.7%. The 1 - 5 spread has increased by 2.5 to 34.5, an increase of 7.8% [5]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased by 472.3 to 2268.9, a decline of 17.2%. The global weekly shipment volume has increased by 447.4 to 3516.4, an increase of 14.6%. The monthly national import volume has increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6, an increase of 10.6% [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills has increased by 2.7 to 236.9, an increase of 1.1%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports has increased by 6.0 to 327.0, an increase of 1.9%. The monthly national pig iron production has decreased by 49.7 to 6554.9, a decline of 0.8%. The monthly national crude steel production has decreased by 149.3 to 7199.7, a decline of 2.0% [5]. - **Inventory**: The weekly port inventory at 45 ports has decreased slightly by 0.1% to 15114.45. The weekly imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has increased by 66.1 to 9076.0, an increase of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remain unchanged at 21.0 days [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints Yesterday, the coke and coking coal futures both showed a weak downward trend. The spot price of coking coal in Shanxi has shown signs of loosening, and the auction price has reached the highest level of the year, providing cost support for coke. The fourth round of price increase for coke has been fully implemented, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term, but mainstream coking enterprises still have plans for further price increases. On the supply side, the production of some停产 coal mines in Shanxi, Luliang, Linfen, and Wuhai is expected to increase, but the production recovery is limited. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has increased significantly since November, and the inventory at the port has continued to rise. On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan have been lifted, the hot metal production has increased from a low level, the steel price has oscillated weakly, and the profit of steel mills has decreased, which has a certain suppression effect on the price increase of coke. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants, ports, and steel mills has decreased slightly, and the overall inventory is slightly lower than the middle level, with a tight supply - demand situation for coke and passive destocking by downstream enterprises. For coking coal, the inventory of coking enterprises and ports has decreased, while the inventory of coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, and steel mills has increased, and the overall inventory is slightly higher than the middle level. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading with an oscillating range for coke between 1600 - 1750 and for coking coal between 1100 - 1250, and to wait and see for the time being [8]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts have decreased to varying degrees. The spreads between different contracts of coke and coking coal have also changed. The coking profit of Steel Union (weekly) and the profit of sample coal mines (weekly) have shown different trends [8]. - **Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants has decreased by 0.6 to 63.0, a decline of 0.9%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills has increased slightly by 0.1 to 46.2, an increase of 0.2%. The production of raw coal and clean coal has increased to varying degrees [8]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production of 247 steel mills has increased by 2.7 to 236.9, an increase of 1.1%. The demand for coke is related to the production of hot metal, and the production of coke has also shown a certain change [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke has decreased by 7.7 to 879.4, a decline of 0.9%. The inventory of coking plants, steel mills, and ports has all decreased to varying degrees. The inventory of coking coal has also changed, with the inventory of some parties increasing and some decreasing [8]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The calculated supply - demand gap of coke has decreased by 1.8 to -5.5 [8].