环球市场动态 无 需 过 度 担 忧 内 地 结 汇 对 流 动 性 的 消 耗 股 票 A 股周三走势分化，白酒股午后集 体涨停；港股恒指升上 28,000 点后 回落，地产股大涨；欧洲股市涨跌 不一，SAP 财报不及预期引发科技 股大幅回落；美股受微软 (MSFT US) 财报拖累纳指一度跌超 2%， 科技股仍表现疲软。 外 汇 / 商 品 OPEC+料继续暂停增产，加上伊朗 局势持续紧张，推动周四国际油价 大涨超 3%；获利回吐推动黄金和 白银现中一度重挫，收盘回升；伦 敦期铜飙升；周四美元指数跟随美 债收益率走低，挪威克朗领涨 G-10 货币。 固 定 收 益 周四美国国债小幅上涨，主要因美 股下挫引发去杠杆情绪，避险资金 明显涌入美债。特朗普称将于今晚 宣布美联储人选。紫金矿业发行可 换股债券。新世界发展据悉和黑石 集团进行深入谈判。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2026 年 1 月 30 日 ▪ 近期内地外汇结汇规模较大，部分投资者担忧集中结汇会消耗流动性。我们认为，外汇存款结汇增加的确会消 耗银行的超储，产生消耗 ...

近日，茅台批价有所回暖，带动市场白酒板块迅速升温。值此之际，段永平在雪球平台（ID：大道无 形我有型）的发言也明显活跃。 最近几天，段永平频繁参与网友讨论，不仅继续分享了他对茅台的看法，还就存储、黄金、风口投资与 现金储备等话题分享了其独到见解。发言一贯延续了其简洁风格，言语间透露出对生意本质的深刻洞 察。 对此，证星研究院再度整理了其近日互动的要点，主要内容如下： 以下为主要内容： 一、关于存储涨价 网友：DRAM和NAND的涨价对安卓机的影响怎么看，特别是非旗舰机？ 大道：应该是really bad，成本会涨很多，还可能拿不到货。对苹果也会有影响，但可能小一点。 （2026.1.28） 四、关于黄金 网友：大道对现在的金银怎么看，可以参与一下吗？ 二、关于风口投资 网友：当一个行业上升期或者风口出现，你知道它是苦生意或者未来会陷入内卷，你会投资赚上一笔吗 或者介意我这样的小散户投资吗？ 比如当初热闹的光伏，又比如美团他们在上升期风口期股价是上涨很多的，赚一笔红利钱。 大道：不打算拿十年的"投资"最好就不要碰，不要想着市场或者风口啥的。打算拿十年的结果未必就一 定要拿十年的，但不打算拿十年的心态会让你很容易 ...

此外，有201家预减，665家预亏，合计866家公司全年业绩报忧。业绩报忧公司中，有394家预计净亏损 超亿元，505家预计净利润最大降幅超50%。从行业分布来看，业绩报忧公司主要分布在化工、机械、 半导体产品与半导体设备行业，报忧公司数量分别为83家、77家、61家。 责任编辑：江钰涵 1月29日，A股共302家上市公司披露2025年年度业绩预告78家预增，12家略增，50家扭亏，其中报喜公 司数量达140家，占比46.36%，162家公司全年业绩报忧，其中41家预减，121家预亏。 1月29日，A股共302家上市公司披露2025年年度业绩预告78家预增，12家略增，50家扭亏，其中报喜公 司数量达140家，占比46.36%，162家公司全年业绩报忧，其中41家预减，121家预亏。 从预告净利润金额来看，75家公司预计全年净利润超1亿元。其中，工业富联、京能电力、华新建材排 名居前，预计净利润分别为351.00亿元、33.07亿元、27.00亿元。从预告净利润增幅来看，159家公司预 计全年净利润最大增幅超50%。其中，海峡创新、华丰科技、*ST凯鑫排名居前，预计净利润最大增幅 分别为2540.85%、22 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, with a vote of 10 in favor and 2 against [4] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the impact of tariff increases on consumer prices has largely been transmitted, and he expects the influence on goods prices to peak and then decline, provided there are no new significant tariff hikes [4] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.02%, Nasdaq up 0.17%, and S&P 500 down 0.01%, while storage stocks surged, with Seagate Technology rising over 19% [4] Group 2 - International oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude oil up 1.6% at $63.39 per barrel and Brent crude oil up 1.35% at $67.49 per barrel [5] - Gold prices reached a new high, with spot gold rising 4.51% to $5,415.23 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures up 6.02% to $5,388.50 per ounce [5] Group 3 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) announced plans to enhance the "AI+" initiative, focusing on investment traction, scene cultivation, and data supply optimization [10] - The tax authorities plan to deepen tax system reforms in 2026, aiming to optimize tax structures and expand local tax sources [11] Group 4 - The Chinese government is encouraging smart home companies to adapt to domestic operating systems and chips, aiming to enhance the smart home industry ecosystem [11] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the trading limits and margin requirements for nickel and other futures contracts, effective January 30, 2026 [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Ruineng Technology (603933) has clarified the applications of its servo systems and inverters in various industries during an interaction with investors [1] Group 2 - The company's servo system products are widely used in industries such as robotics, machine tool processing, printing and packaging, textile machinery, laser equipment, and electronic devices [1] - The company's inverter products are extensively applied in metallurgy, mining, petrochemicals, energy power, and water environmental protection industries [1] - The company's servo systems and inverters are not utilized in the commercial aerospace sector [1]

Profit Growth Overview - In 2025, the cumulative year-on-year profit growth rate for industrial enterprises was 0.6%, with December showing a significant increase of 5.3% compared to November's -13.1%[1] - The profit recovery is characterized as a "V-shaped" rebound, driven by improved production activity, narrowing PPI declines, and a substantial recovery in profit margins[1][4] Contributing Factors - The increase in profits is attributed to a combination of rising production volumes, improved pricing environments, and enhanced profit margins, with December's profit margin rising from 5.29% to 5.31%[5] - The industrial added value in December rose to 5.2%, up from 4.8% in November, indicating improved industrial production activity[5] Sector Performance - The profit share of upstream and midstream industries increased to 29.6% and 53.7%, respectively, while the downstream sector saw a slight decrease to 16.7%[6] - Upstream sectors like coal mining and non-ferrous metals showed strong profit recovery, while downstream sectors like automotive and food experienced profit contractions[6][14] Revenue Trends - Cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises in 2025 was 1.1%, with December showing a decline of 3.2%, indicating ongoing challenges in end-demand recovery[10] - The inventory growth rate for industrial finished products was 3.9%, signaling a shift from replenishment to destocking as companies respond to weak demand[10] Future Outlook - The sustainability of profit recovery is contingent on the strengthening of domestic demand and the continued effectiveness of policy measures[15] - Risks include external uncertainties and the potential for domestic demand recovery to fall short of expectations[16]

Economic Information - Tencent's chairman Ma Huateng expressed concerns about the "Doubao" phone, stating that using a plug-in to record screens from phones and computers to the cloud is "extremely unsafe and irresponsible" [2] - The price of lithium carbonate futures opened high but fell by 6.65% to 165,680 yuan/ton, with a reduction in open interest by 22,000 contracts to 416,700 contracts, indicating market divergence and reduced purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers [2] - Global production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to reach 70,000 tons by 2026, up from 28,500 tons last year, driven by applications in electric vehicles and digital consumption [3] Company Warnings - Dongfang Risen anticipates a net loss of 2.3 billion to 2.9 billion yuan in 2025, with no direct supply of photovoltaic products to commercial aerospace satellite companies [3] - 20CM's revenue from the aerospace sector is expected to account for less than 1% in 2025 [3] - Multiple companies, including Kai Pu Testing and Shengda Bio, are planning to reduce their shareholdings by up to 3% [3][4] Overseas Market Highlights - Gold and silver prices experienced significant corrections after reaching historical highs, with silver peaking at $117/oz before dropping to approximately $103.7/oz, and gold reaching $5,110/oz before falling back to around $5,010/oz [5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.62%, with notable declines in stocks such as Baidu and Xpeng Motors [6] - U.S. natural gas prices surged due to severe cold weather, with futures exceeding $7/million BTU before retreating to about $6.5/million BTU [6] Industry Forecasts - The global laptop shipment is projected to decrease by 14.8% in the first quarter of 2026 due to rising prices of CPUs and memory chips, along with increased costs of components like PCBs and batteries [7]

1月27日，A股共174家上市公司披露2025年年度业绩预告49家预增，7家略增，1家续盈，35家扭亏，其 中报喜公司数量达92家，占比52.87%，82家公司全年业绩报忧，其中16家预减，66家预亏。 (本文来自第一财经) 从预告净利润金额来看，54家公司预计全年净利润超1亿元。其中，中航成飞、三生国健、九安医疗排 名居前，预计净利润分别为34.00亿元、29.00亿元、20.20亿元。从预告净利润增幅来看，94家公司预计 全年净利润最大增幅超50%。其中，*ST威尔、通化东宝、拾比佰排名居前，预计净利润最大增幅分别 为9599.14%、3007.39%、1732.65%。 截至1月27日，已有1061家上市公司披露年度业绩预告，其中284家预增，47家略增，5家续盈，105家扭 亏，合计441家公司报喜，占比41.56%。业绩报喜公司中，有339家预计净利润超亿元，259家预计净利 润最大增幅超100%。从行业分布来看，业绩报喜公司主要分布在化工、机械、电子设备、仪器和元件 行业，报喜公司数量分别为56家、50家、45家。 ...

Major Events - Dongpeng Beverage (09980) will conduct its IPO from January 26 to January 29, with an expected listing date of February 3 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) plans to acquire 100% of Allied Gold Corporation for approximately CAD 5.5 billion [2] - AsiaInfo Technologies (01675) collaborates with ABB Robotics to establish an "Embodied Intelligence Laboratory" [3] - Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical (06887) signs a strategic cooperation agreement with Shenzhen Jingtai to form a joint venture for an AI-driven drug research platform [4] - Howie Group (00501) intends to invest up to USD 50 million to subscribe for shares in Aixin Yuanzhi's initial public offering [5] - Singularity Guofeng (01280) enters a GPU distribution cooperation agreement with Muxi Co., aiming to penetrate the domestic AI computing power market [6] - Guorui Life (00108) signs a strategic cooperation memorandum with Mingzhi Medical to promote deep integration and industrial upgrading of "medical + technology + scenarios" [7] Financial Reports - Harbin Electric (01133) anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately CNY 2.65 billion for 2025 [8] - Joyson Electronics (00699) expects an annual net profit of about CNY 1.35 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 40.56% [9] - Guotai Junan International (01788) projects an annual net profit between HKD 1.28 billion and HKD 1.38 billion, a significant increase of 265% to 293% year-on-year [10] - Tianyue Advanced (02631) forecasts annual revenue of CNY 1.45 billion to CNY 1.5 billion [11] - China Power (02380) estimates a consolidated total electricity sales volume of approximately 126 million megawatt-hours for 2025 [12] - Chalco International (02068) expects a total new contract amount of CNY 46.836 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.94% [13]

1月26日，南下资金净卖出港股8.26亿港元，为连续第二日净卖出。 其中：净买入腾讯控股10.15亿、小米集团-W 8.22亿、泡泡玛特6.13亿、钧达股份1.47亿、中国海洋石油1.07亿；净卖出中国移动11.77亿、紫金矿业10.77 亿、盈富基金10.36亿、阿里巴巴-W 2.35亿、中国人寿1.06亿。 据统计，南下资金已连续7日净买入小米，共计38.9621亿港元；连续4日净买入中海油，共计10.9627亿港元；连续3日净买入泡泡玛特，共计17.3397亿港 元；连续16日净卖出中国移动，共计128.9303亿港元。 北水动向 腾讯控股：海通国际发表研究报告，维持对腾讯控股"跑赢大市"评级，目标价为700港元。该行大致维持对腾讯第四季的业绩预测，预计总收入达1950亿 元，同比增长13%，非国际财务报告准则营业利润预计为680亿元，同比增长15%。该行认为，高质量增长将在2026财年延续。虽然资本支出可能在2026年 加速并对利润率构成压力，但受高利润新业务线驱动，预计仍可实现小幅利润率扩张。 小米集团：港交所文件显示，小米集团于1月26日以1.404亿港元回购400万股B类股份。 泡泡玛特：花旗发 ...