Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, the US real GDP recorded a high growth rate of 3.8% quarter-on-quarter, with Q3 expectations reaching 4%[6] - The divergence in opinions regarding the US economic outlook is increasing, with recession risks becoming more pronounced[10] Employment and Consumption Dynamics - The US job market is showing signs of accelerated decline, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, indicating a near-recession performance[11] - Despite the deteriorating job market, personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.7% to Q2 GDP, with a year-on-year growth of 2.74% in August[19][24] Income and Wealth Effects - Nominal disposable income growth for US residents remains stable at around 4.6%, supported by a 5% increase in wage income and an 8.5% rise in government transfer payments[28][31] - The wealth effect from rising stock prices has led to a historical high in household net worth, reaching $197 trillion in Q2 2025, with a ratio of net worth to disposable income at 782%[35][40] Structural Consumption Resilience - High-income households are primarily driving consumption resilience, with their spending growth significantly outpacing that of low-income households, which saw a cumulative increase of only 7.9% compared to 16.7% for high-income households since 2018[62][65] - The concentration of wealth among high-income groups is evident, with the top 1% holding nearly 50% of their assets in stocks and mutual funds, while low-income households are more reliant on real estate[45][48] Future Outlook and Risks - The sustainability of consumption resilience is contingent on the continuation of the technology cycle and its impact on income and wealth effects[69] - Risks include potential job losses in large enterprises, which could exacerbate the decline in consumer spending if high-income job losses occur[77][81]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, driven by hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and a global tech stock sell-off, highlighting the market's sensitivity to monetary policy outlook [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices initially rose to a high of $4,132 before retreating to a low of $4,055, indicating a complete reversal of gains for the day [2] - The surge in gold prices was primarily fueled by a wave of selling in global tech stocks, which increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, emphasizing caution regarding interest rate cuts, dampened bullish sentiment in the gold market [1][2] - The dollar index rebounded, approaching a six-month high, which placed additional pressure on gold prices denominated in dollars [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Key price levels for gold were identified: resistance at $4,082, $4,100, and $4,132, with support at $4,055, $4,050, and $4,000 [5] - The market is expected to oscillate within the $4,050 to $4,100 range, with close attention needed on Federal Reserve communications and U.S. economic data [5]

关于多家科技股业绩超预期却继续下跌，李泽铭认为，现在困扰港股的因素，包括美联储12月份是否减 息的忧虑，目前委员投票情况来看，赞成减息跟反对减息的票数相当接近；另一方面，市场更加担心 AI投资所造成的泡沫，最近领跌的板块，基本上都是跟AI相关的，美股和港股都是类似情况，这个情 绪进一步蔓延也导致了市场下跌。近日港股成交比较低迷，预计12月美联储议息结果落地后，港股成交 额及波动幅度有望重新放大。 华金证券策略分析师邓利军认为，市场短期风险偏好可能偏中性。国内短期稳增长政策预期仍对风险偏 好有一定支撑；海外方面，受美联储内部分歧加剧影响，12月降息预期有所下降。 中金公司则分析，2025年的市场，从多个维度看，都是超出预期的，称之为牛市毫不为过。这背后，既 有实实在在的产业趋势（AI）和基本面改善。展望2026年，不论是越来越多A股和中国优质资产赴港上 市，还是南向资金持续涌入，对港股市场长期是大有裨益的。 港股其他科技股也存在类似情况，包括腾讯控股（00700.HK）、京东集团（09618.HK）都是业绩超预 期，然后连跌五天。 业内人士认为，美联储12月降息不确定，港股进入震荡时期，降息消息落地后成交和波动 ...

11月18日晚间，小米集团（01810.HK）公布了超预期的第三季度业绩，然而19日上午却大跌4.32%，中 午报收39.02港元，恒生科技指数跌0.98%，报收5590点。 中金公司则分析，2025年的市场，从多个维度看，都是超出预期的，称之为牛市毫不为过。这背后，既 有实实在在的产业趋势（AI）和基本面改善。展望2026年，不论是越来越多A股和中国优质资产赴港上 市，还是南向资金持续涌入，对港股市场长期是大有裨益的。 （文章来源：第一财经） 关于多家科技股业绩超预期却继续下跌，李泽铭认为，现在困扰港股的因素，包括美联储12月份是否减 息的忧虑，目前委员投票情况来看，赞成减息跟反对减息的票数相当接近；另一方面，市场更加担心 AI投资所造成的泡沫，最近领跌的板块，基本上都是跟AI相关的，美股和港股都是类似情况，这个情 绪进一步蔓延也导致了市场下跌。近日港股成交比较低迷，预计12月美联储议息结果落地后，港股成交 额及波动幅度有望重新放大。 港股其他科技股也存在类似情况，包括腾讯控股（00700.HK）、京东集团（09618.HK）都是业绩超预 期，然后连跌五天。 华金证券策略分析师邓利军认为，市场短期风险偏好可 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent declines in the U.S. stock market, particularly in technology stocks, are attributed to concerns over inflated valuations, especially related to AI, and changing interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The recent drop in the Dow Jones by nearly 500 points and the S&P 500's four-day decline reflect a broader market correction, particularly in tech stocks that had previously surged due to AI hype [2][3]. - Amazon's recent issuance of $15 billion in bonds and issues faced by Blue Owl fund have heightened investor concerns, leading to a sell-off in tech stocks [3]. - The decline in Bitcoin is seen as a signal of reduced market risk appetite, as many tech investors also hold cryptocurrencies [3]. Federal Reserve Influence - A month ago, there was a strong expectation for a rate cut in December, but current probabilities have dropped below 50%, leading to market adjustments [4]. - Recent fluctuations in U.S. employment data have added to economic uncertainty, contributing to the market's downward trend [4]. Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are advised to focus on company fundamentals rather than short-term market fluctuations, viewing recent declines as opportunities to acquire undervalued stocks [5]. - Key upcoming data points include the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data, which are crucial for understanding future interest rate directions [5]. - Investors should differentiate between companies that genuinely leverage AI for profitability and those that are merely riding the hype, focusing on firms with solid fundamentals [5].

2025.11. 19 本文字数：1096，阅读时长大约2分钟 美国劳动力市场呈现更多疲态。劳工部数据显示，在截至10月18日的一周内，持续申领失业救济人 数增加1万人至195.7万人，较9月中旬的191.6万人明显上升。 由于政府停摆影响统计流程，劳工统计局未能正常完成10月就业调查。白宫警告，10月失业率大概 率无法公布。 High Frequency Economics首席经济学家卡尔·温伯格（Carl Weinberg）认为，持续申领人数的 变化并未显示"大规模裁员潮"，市场无需过度解读。他表示，"这应有助于缓解对12月降息的押注"。 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 美国股市周二（11月18日）继续下行，科技板块的进一步调整使大盘延续跌势，标普500指数连续 四个交易日收跌，为8月以来最长连跌纪录，围绕AI估值的担忧持续发酵。与此同时，银行与信贷领 域的压力同步升温，市场承压面扩大。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌498.50点，跌幅1.07%，收报46091.74点；标普500指数跌0.83%，至 6617.32点，为连续第四个交易日下跌；纳斯达克指数跌1.21%，至22432.85点。 盘中，道指一度跌近70 ...

与此同时，政策层面也在积极发力。财政部门正积极推动扩大内需，支持消费贷款的贴息政策已经落地，海南免税商品的范围也扩大至47大类。传统消费品 正积极去库存，新消费场景也在不断拓展。这些政策举措，如同托起消费板块的双手，也在不断增强市场信心。 市场情绪在周末被彻底点燃，一场由存储芯片巨头三星引发的价格风暴，正悄然酝酿着周一A股市场的爆发。三星突然宣布将其32GB DDR5模组的价格大幅 上调近60%，从149美元直接飙升至239美元，犹如一颗重磅炸弹，瞬间引爆了整个行业。 与此同时，美股科技股也经历了一场惊心动魄的过山车行情。英伟达盘中一度暴跌5%，随后又奇迹般地强势反弹，最终以超过1%的涨幅收盘。这一幕无疑 为即将到来的A股市场增添了更多想象空间。 为何三星敢于如此大幅度提价？究其根本，是AI数据中心对高性能内存的渴求已经达到了前所未有的程度。海量数据和庞大算力的需求，迅速消耗着高端 内存的库存，导致供应链出现紧张信号。面对供不应求的局面，客户们纷纷恐慌性下单，厂商订单簿瞬间爆满，价格自然水涨船高。 值得注意的是，国内存储芯片厂商并非孤立于全球市场之外。事实上，它们与三星、美光等国际巨头在供应链上早已形成了紧密 ...

美银调查显示，目前英国股市正首当其冲承受投资者谨慎情绪的影响，对英国股市的配置出现自2022年10月以来最大三个月降幅。市场对英国经济前景存在 担忧，且工党政府可能在11月26日预算中宣布增税和紧缩措施。此外，英国利率水平仍高于欧元区水平。 美银的调查显示，投资者对股市的敞口仍处于2月以来最高水平。Michael Hartnett表示，若美联储12月不降息，市场将面临"进一步调整"。这位策略师表 示，当前头寸对风险资产而言"是逆风而非顺风"。美银调查还显示，潜在AI泡沫被列为最大尾部风险，同时投资者二十年来首次认为企业存在过度投资现 象。 此外，约42%受访者预计国际股票将成为明年表现最佳的资产类别，仅22%认为美股将领先。这一预期与高盛策略师Peter Oppenheimer的预测相呼应。此前 准确预测今年美股跑输其他地区股市的Peter Oppenheimer预计，未来十年美股将继续落后于全球其他主要市场。这位策略师预计，标普500指数在未来十年 的年化收益率将达到6.5%，在所有地区中表现最弱;新兴市场预计将成为最强者，年化收益率为10.9%。 智通财经APP获悉，美国银行的一项月度调查显示，投资者现金 ...

受多重因素影响市场风险情绪恶化，全球金融市场集体下挫。港股三大指数今日全天弱势，且午后跌幅 进一步加大，恒生指数跌1.72%失守26000点大关，国企指数、恒生科技指数分别下跌1.65%及1.93%。 另一方面，存储景气上行价格涨幅扩大，设备等受益于下游扩产趋势，半导体芯片股逆势活跃，权重股 中芯国际涨1.44%。此外，全市场仍有近40只个股涨幅在10%以上。(格隆汇) 盘面上，市场对人工智能估值过高的担忧，导致近期科技股持续走低，快手、百度、小米、京东等多数 权重科技股创下近期低价；现货黄金盘中一度跌破4000美元，黄金股领衔有色金属股下跌，灵宝黄金大 跌近9%；年内钢材价格经历显著下跌，钢铁股跌幅明显；Q4营收指引不及预期，小鹏汽车大跌超10% 领衔汽车股走低；保险股、内房股、军工股、锂电池股、苹果概念股、新消费概念股、中资券商股、石 油股等纷纷下跌。 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continues to decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 1.47% and falling below 26,000 points, marking three consecutive days of losses [1] - The technology sector remains under pressure, with major companies like Xiaomi, JD.com, and Kuaishou hitting new lows [1] - Bitcoin has fallen below $91,000, erasing over 30% of its gains for the year, leading to a decline in cryptocurrency-related stocks [1] Group 2 - Semiconductor stocks are performing well despite the overall market downturn, with leading company SMIC rising by 1.5% due to increased demand from downstream expansion trends [1] - Other sectors such as steel, coal, automotive, gold, and copper are also experiencing declines [1]