Summary of the Conference Call on the Beef Cattle Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the beef cattle industry in China, highlighting key trends and forecasts for 2025 and beyond [1][10]. Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, China's beef cattle slaughter volume increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while beef production rose by 4.5%. However, the cattle inventory decreased by 2.1%, and imports fell by 9.5%, indicating a slight contraction in overall beef supply [1][10]. - Seasonal demand patterns were noted, with a peak in beef prices observed post-Chinese New Year due to delayed operations of small slaughterhouses and concentrated orders from large enterprises [1][13]. - The average profit for small bulls and heifers sold after the Spring Festival was reported to be over 2,000 yuan, with some cases reaching up to 3,000 yuan [14][15]. Future Projections - A decline in both cattle inventory and slaughter volume is expected in the second half of 2025, with an overall production decrease of approximately 1%. Imports are projected to drop to around 2.5 million tons [1][16]. - The beef price is anticipated to be higher than in 2024, with a forecasted price range of 26.5 to 27 yuan per kilogram in the fourth quarter [17][21]. - A new cycle in the beef cattle industry is expected to begin in the first half of 2026, with peak prices projected between 32 to 35 yuan per kilogram, potentially lasting until 2027 [1][20]. Market Structure and Challenges - The industry is characterized by a high proportion of small-scale producers, with over 90% of cattle raised in small groups, leading to inefficiencies and market volatility [3][9]. - The concentration of slaughtering operations remains low, with no dominant players in the market, which further restricts overall industry efficiency [9]. - The impact of imported beef, which accounts for about 25% of total consumption, is significant for short-term market supply [6][28]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure of beef cattle farming is heavily influenced by the purchase price of calves or feeder cattle, which constitutes about 68% of total costs, while feed costs account for 17% [14][24]. - The profitability of beef cattle farming is closely tied to the feeding methods and cost structures, with concentrated feeding models showing better profitability compared to self-breeding [14][26]. Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has maintained a supportive stance towards the domestic beef market since becoming a net importer in 2013, with recent measures aimed at combating smuggling and ensuring the development of local producers [28][29]. Additional Important Insights - The cyclical nature of the beef market was discussed, with historical cycles lasting approximately 8 to 9 years, influenced by factors such as consumer income, feed costs, and external market conditions [8]. - The current economic environment and consumer behavior are expected to impact demand, with seasonal variations affecting purchasing patterns [7][11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the beef cattle industry, focusing on supply-demand dynamics, future projections, market structure, cost analysis, and regulatory considerations.

Summary of Conference Call on Swine and Livestock Industry Industry Overview - The swine industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to increased trial and error costs for companies, resulting in some reducing production or exiting the market [1][2] - The overall market is characterized by a "short bull, long bear" cycle, with the agricultural sector underperforming in the secondary market [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - Pork price fluctuations significantly impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI), despite pork's low share (1.2%-1.5%) in CPI, due to its strong cyclicality and amplification effects [1][3] - In the first half of 2025, pork prices are expected to decline by 20% quarter-on-quarter, with potential further decreases in the second half if no policy interventions occur, affecting CPI negatively [1][4] - Approximately one-third of breeding entities are currently operating at a loss [1][4] Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is leading a multi-ministerial effort to balance swine supply and demand, aiming to reduce the number of breeding sows to 39.5 million to reverse the cycle and increase prices [1][5] - Initial policy execution has been weak, with some leading companies expanding against the trend, prompting regulatory bodies to strengthen credit policies to maintain a price floor of 14 yuan/kg [1][6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - **Muyuan Foods**: Noted for its significant cost advantage and potential for profit release, with projections of achieving over 30 billion yuan in profits if costs drop to 11 yuan/kg by 2026 [1][8] - **Bangji and Dekang**: Innovative companies focusing on empowering farmers and achieving efficient expansion through light-asset models [1][8] Livestock Industry Trends - The beef industry is currently in a deep loss phase, but with reduced imports due to anti-dumping investigations, a capacity clearance is expected [3][10] - The beef cycle is similar to the swine cycle, with low production rates and slow recovery in capacity expected [3][10] Future Prospects for Dairy and Beef Companies - Companies like **Yuran** and **Shengmu** are expected to benefit from the cyclical recovery in both beef and dairy markets, with stable operations and prices above industry averages [3][11] - Profit projections for Yuran are estimated at 2.8 to 4 billion yuan by 2026, while Shengmu is expected to reach 600 million to 1 billion yuan [3][13] Overall Investment Strategy - The livestock sector, including swine, beef, and dairy, presents significant investment potential. Companies like Yuran and Shengmu are recommended for their dual-benefit logic and stable operational status [3][14] - Continuous monitoring of policy changes and anti-dumping investigations is advised to adjust investment strategies accordingly [3][14]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural sector, particularly in beef and dairy farming, is recovering from previous losses due to a series of supportive policies and market improvements [2][3]. Group 1: Market Situation - The beef cattle industry has turned profitable after a period of losses, with live cattle prices rebounding since the Spring Festival, leading to three consecutive months of profitability [2]. - In the dairy sector, there has been a 4.2% year-on-year decrease in the number of Holstein cows, and the cost of milk production has dropped by 7.7% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in dairy farming [2]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is implementing various relief measures, including financial support and monitoring of dairy farms, to stabilize the market and improve production efficiency [3]. - Policies are being guided to enhance the quality of breeding stock and to control production capacity, aiming to stabilize market expectations [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Ministry plans to continue promoting relief measures, focusing on extending the industrial chain, increasing added value, and enhancing competitiveness in both beef and dairy sectors [2][3]. - Upcoming factors such as reduced production due to heat stress in dairy cows and increased consumption of cold drinks are expected to further support the recovery of the dairy market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The financial institutions in Tongliao City are actively working to address the challenges faced by the meat cattle industry, particularly in terms of financing and collateral, by implementing innovative financial services and products to support sustainable development in agriculture [1][3][4]. Financial Support for Meat Cattle Industry - As of the end of May, the loan balance for the meat cattle industry in Tongliao City reached 24.654 billion yuan, with 9.125 billion yuan disbursed this year, accounting for 13.24% of the total loan balance in the city [2]. - The People's Bank of China Tongliao Branch has introduced policies to guide financial institutions in meeting the financing needs of the meat cattle industry, including the inclusion of large agricultural tools as collateral [3]. Technological Integration in Financing - The integration of technology and finance is emphasized, with the development of a "Smart Livestock Loan" model that utilizes IoT devices and AI technology to monitor livestock health and establish asset identification [4][6]. - A digital platform has been established to achieve full lifecycle traceability of meat cattle, with 95,800 cattle already included in the digital archive [6]. Risk Management and Monitoring - The financial institutions are implementing a dual safeguard system combining technology and control for collateral management, utilizing various monitoring systems to ensure the integrity of pledged assets [5][9]. - The establishment of a rural revitalization financial service station aims to facilitate the registration and monitoring of live cattle collateral, enhancing the oversight of pledged livestock [6]. Support for Grain Industry - The financial support extends to the grain industry, with a focus on integrating supply chain finance to enhance the financing capabilities of small and medium-sized enterprises within the corn industry [10]. - A credit guarantee fund has been established with a total of 1.28 billion yuan to support grain purchasing and processing enterprises, resulting in the issuance of loans totaling 2.2 billion yuan [9]. Innovation in Financial Products - Financial institutions in Tongliao are encouraged to develop differentiated financial products tailored to the specific needs of the meat cattle and grain industries, following the principle of "suitability by institution" [7][10]. - The introduction of intellectual property pledge loans aims to support agricultural technology enterprises, facilitating a shift from asset-heavy to knowledge-based financing models [10].

Summary of the Conference Call for YouRan Agriculture Company Overview - YouRan Agriculture is the largest dairy cattle farming enterprise globally, controlled by Yili Group, covering the entire cycle of breeding, farming, and feed raw material production. Over 90% of its raw milk products are sold to Yili [2][5][10]. Industry Insights - Domestic beef prices are expected to reach historical highs within the next two to three years, while milk prices are rebounding after hitting a low. The industry has already reduced about 10% of its capacity, with further reductions anticipated in the second half of the year [2][3]. - The domestic beef cattle farming industry has experienced significant losses, with a reduction of nearly 30% in breeding and technical cows. A decrease in domestic beef supply is expected by the second half of 2025, indicating a clear price turning point [4][11]. - Globally, beef cattle production has decreased by about 5%, with beef prices starting to recover since 2024, having risen nearly 40% cumulatively [4][12]. Financial Performance - In 2024, YouRan Agriculture's revenue is projected to reach 20.1 billion yuan, but it is expected to incur a net loss of nearly 700 million yuan due to falling raw milk prices and biological asset impairments. Profitability is anticipated to improve starting in 2025 as costs decline and beef prices recover [2][6]. - YouRan's revenue composition includes 75% from goat milk with a gross margin of 30%-40%, and 25% from ancillary businesses like feed, which has a gross margin of 17% [2][7][8]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditures have significantly increased since 2020, but no large-scale capacity expansion is planned in the short to medium term. A reduction in capital expenditures is expected starting in 2025 [9]. - The cash cost of producing raw milk is approximately 3.9 yuan per kilogram, with a sales average of 4.1 yuan per kilogram in 2023, indicating a premium of about 30% over industry costs [9]. Future Profitability and Market Dynamics - The company expects to sell approximately 100,000 culled cows annually, with prices currently at historical lows of 7,000 yuan per head, potentially rising to 14,000-15,000 yuan per head by 2026, contributing significantly to profits [15][16]. - The raw milk business is projected to significantly enhance profitability, with expected sales volumes reaching 4.1 million tons by 2025 and 4.3 million tons by 2026. An increase in raw milk prices could add approximately 2 billion yuan to profits by 2027 [17]. Valuation and Market Position - YouRan Agriculture's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is around 1.1, at historical lows, with potential for significant recovery. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is also expected to double as market conditions improve [18]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for YouRan Agriculture is positive, driven by anticipated price recoveries in both beef and raw milk markets, alongside strategic operational adjustments and a strong market position as a leading enterprise in the dairy sector [18].

Core Viewpoint - The integration of content e-commerce is injecting new momentum into the beef industry, promoting industrial upgrades and the establishment of a healthy consumption ecosystem [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The rapid development of internet technology is leading to profound changes in the market environment, with traditional e-commerce models being replaced by content e-commerce [4] - Content e-commerce utilizes precise user tagging and personalized content delivery to create new pathways for brand marketing, presenting unprecedented development opportunities for the beef industry's integration [4] Group 2: Company Initiatives - In 2022, the company collaborated with authoritative media such as CCTV to promote specialty agricultural products from impoverished counties in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang through live streaming, achieving significant results [4] - Major traffic giants like ByteDance are establishing live streaming bases in cities like Chengdu, providing substantial support for agricultural projects through streaming subsidies [4] Group 3: Consumer Engagement - The company emphasizes that every stage of the beef production process, from calf breeding to standardized ranching, slaughtering, cold chain transportation, and retail sales, can be transformed into content [4] - By narrating the stories behind each stage, the company aims to convey a healthy and safe lifestyle, fostering deep brand trust among consumers [4] Group 4: Event Overview - The conference, themed "Industry Prosperity Benefits Agriculture, Chain Movement Promotes Revitalization," focuses on livestock product supply, food quality safety, and increasing farmers' income [1][4] - The event aims to build a cross-domain dialogue platform to explore new directions for the ecological development of the entire beef industry chain, new breeding technologies, and new retail markets [4]

Core Insights - The "North Cattle South Transport Fresh Meat into Guangdong" brand launch event for Inner Mongolia's fresh beef industry took place in Shenzhen, resulting in over 10.7 billion yuan in signed contracts [1] - Ordos City, a key area for consumption assistance, signed 3.5 billion yuan in orders, leading the event in contract value [1] Group 1: Sales and Contracts - From March to May this year, Ordos City engaged in multiple sales meetings in Shenzhen, resulting in significant contracts including a 2 billion yuan agreement for 100,000 cattle with Guangdong's Yuehai Foods [3] - The total signed contracts included 10 billion yuan in intent orders for 50,000 cattle with Guangdong Shenglong Cattle Industry Group and 5 billion yuan for other cold chain products [3] - The first batch of over 1,000 live cattle is set to be shipped to Shenzhen, with an initial cold chain shipment valued at 1 million yuan already delivered [3] Group 2: Industry Development and Collaboration - Ordos City has been actively promoting consumption assistance and signed 1.945 billion yuan in agreements in April, leveraging the "North Cattle South Transport" project to enhance collaboration between key cities and production areas [4] - The initiative aims to connect local agricultural products with the high-quality food demands of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, benefiting both consumers and local farmers [4] - The collaboration is expected to stabilize sales channels for northern agricultural enterprises, promote standardized development, and enhance local industry through the introduction of advanced processing and logistics practices from the Greater Bay Area [5] Group 3: Strategic Goals and Future Plans - The Ordos City government plans to explore order-based breeding cooperation with Yuehai Foods, encouraging farmers to raise high-quality cattle to promote rural revitalization [5] - The partnership aims to create a full industry chain model from pasture to table, ensuring high-quality and safe meat products for consumers in the Greater Bay Area [5] - The collaboration is designed to establish a beneficial cycle that connects production and sales, ultimately increasing income for farmers and rural collectives [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article illustrates the challenges and determination of a young farmer in northern Heilongjiang, who is committed to his agricultural venture despite declining beef prices and family concerns about his career choice [2][11]. Group 1: Agricultural Operations - The farm consists of 10 plots of land, totaling approximately 115 acres, where the farmer raises cattle and grows crops for both personal consumption and cattle feed [7]. - The farmer faces labor shortages, struggling to recruit workers for traditional farming tasks, which leads to family members stepping in to assist [8][9]. - The article details the planting process, including the types of vegetables and grains being cultivated, such as beans and corn, which are essential for cattle feed [15][22]. Group 2: Economic Context - The farmer's investment in agriculture has not yet yielded returns, and he relies on bank loans to sustain operations amid falling beef prices [11]. - Despite the financial challenges, the farmer remains optimistic about future profitability, believing that current policies will allow him to recover his investments within three to four years [11]. Group 3: Family Dynamics - Family members express concern over the farmer's decision to pursue agriculture instead of continuing his stable career as a veterinarian, highlighting a generational divide in career aspirations [10][11]. - The article captures the family's collective effort in supporting the farmer's agricultural activities, showcasing a blend of familial duty and personal ambition [9][40].

Core Insights - The beef market in Henan province is experiencing a recovery, with live cattle prices increasing by 13.4% year-on-year to 26.69 yuan per kilogram as of June 18, 2025, and wholesale beef prices rising by 4.0% to 63.25 yuan per kilogram [3][4][12] - The beef production in Henan is projected to reach 391,300 tons in 2024, marking a 3.0% increase year-on-year, with a total of 3.55 million cattle expected to be raised [3][12] - The industry is focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement as key strategies for sustainable development amidst market fluctuations [3][11] Industry Practices - The use of technology, such as the '豫牛一号' chip for genetic analysis, is enhancing the efficiency of cattle breeding and selection processes [4][6] - The integration of local straw resources into cattle feed is being promoted to reduce costs, as feed typically accounts for 60%-70% of total cattle farming expenses [7][9] - Various innovative farming models, such as the "25512" model in Piyang County, are being adopted to optimize cattle farming practices and improve profitability [10][11] Future Development - The beef industry is exploring differentiated pathways to enhance resilience against market volatility, including improving production efficiency and developing high-value beef products [13][15] - There is a strong emphasis on establishing a complete industry chain from breeding to processing, with local governments providing support through subsidies and insurance [12][11] - The potential for high-quality beef consumption in China is expected to grow, driven by rising incomes and demand for premium animal protein [15][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a turning point in the beef cycle in 2025, with a continued rise in meat prices expected until 2027, driven by supply adjustments and improved market conditions [4][16] - The domestic beef and milk prices have diverged, with the beef-to-milk price ratio reaching a historical high of 20.97, indicating potential for accelerated dairy cow culling and a subsequent recovery in raw milk prices [3][20] - The report highlights that the domestic beef market is expected to tighten due to reduced supply and import pressures, leading to a sustained upward trend in beef prices [11][16] Summary by Sections Beef Market Outlook - The report projects that the beef market will experience a significant recovery starting in 2025, with prices expected to rise until 2027 due to supply adjustments and reduced losses among farmers [5][16] - The current beef price has been under pressure, with a cumulative decline of nearly 25% from the peak in 2023, but the report suggests that the market is poised for recovery [5][10] Dairy Market Outlook - The raw milk market has been underperforming, with prices dropping below cash costs, but improvements are anticipated in the second half of 2025 as supply and demand dynamics shift [17][25] - The report notes that the culling of dairy cows will provide additional beef supply, reinforcing the interconnectedness of the beef and dairy markets [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies directly benefiting from the beef market recovery, such as Bright Meat Industry, and suggests monitoring dairy farming companies like Yuran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu for potential performance recovery [4][26]