Economic Overview - The probability of a "soft landing" for the US economy has increased as trade tensions show signs of easing, leading to a decrease in recession risks [2] - The US GDP growth is expected to rebound in Q2 due to a decline in imports, with a strong labor market potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for May indicate expansion, with manufacturing PMI at 52.3, the highest since February, and new orders growing at the fastest pace in over a year [2][3] Labor Market Insights - In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% [4] - The labor market exhibits structural contradictions, characterized by "strong data, weak structure," which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] Federal Reserve Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its monetary policy framework to address significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks since the pandemic [6] - The focus of monetary policy will shift from assessing "deviations" from full employment to evaluating "shortages" in the labor market [6][7] - The Fed may consider exiting the flexible average inflation targeting framework due to its limitations in the current economic environment [7][8] Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Recent downgrades of the US credit rating and threats of increased tariffs have led to heightened market volatility, impacting the dollar and boosting gold prices [9][10] - The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds has risen above 5%, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of US debt amid rising interest expenses [10][11] - The relationship between gold prices and US fiscal deficits suggests that ongoing fiscal expansion could enhance gold's investment appeal in the long term [11]

评级机构标普及穆迪5月27日分别发表报告，标普维持香港"AA+"的信贷评级和"稳定"的评级展望，而穆迪在 维持香港"Aa3"信贷评级的同时，将评级展望由"负面"调升为"稳定"。 校对： 刘星莹 百万用户都在看 利好来了！刚刚，"国家队"出手！ 午后！日本，重大突发！ 今夜，利好！刚刚，大涨！ 俄乌突发！刚刚，大规模袭击！特朗普"怒了" 刚刚，大涨！关税，突传大消息！ 刚刚，A股异动！一则消息，突然引爆！ 香港特区政府回应表示，最近多家评级机构一致给予香港"稳定"的评级展望，反映香港在全球经济和金融不确 定性增加之际，具备稳定前行的韧性。展望未来，香港有信心在应对外部挑战的同时，把握新形势下的发展机 遇。特区政府会继续致力用好香港在"一国两制"下的制度优势，巩固和提升香港作为国际金融、航运和贸易中 心的地位，同时大力推进国际创科中心的建设，推动经济与社会的高质量和可持续发展。 来源：@大湾区之声 责编：汪云鹏 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com ...

据央广网报道，最新官方储备资产情况。数据显示，4月末，我国外汇储备规模为3.28万亿元，连续第三个月增长；4月末，黄金储备规模为7377万盎司，连 续六个月增长。根据国家外汇局的统计数据，截至2025年4月末，我国外汇储备规模为32817亿美元，较3月末上升410亿美元，升幅为1.27%。外汇局指出， 2025年4月，受主要经济体宏观政策、经济增长预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。 特朗普（资料图） 美元（资料图） 自从2019年被日本超越之后，近年来中国在逐步减持美债，整体趋势非常明显，不过，这一次是自2023年2月以来最大规模的单月长期美债抛售，这已经不 是简单的投资行为。事实上，其原因也不难理解，总结起来就是四个字——风险规避。国际评级机构穆迪将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，这是继标 普2011年、惠誉2023年之后，第三家主要评级机构对美国信用评级的调整。 中国由美国第二大债主变为第三大债主，英国变为第二大债主。3月正值本轮美债市场动荡前夕。美国财政部2025年3月国际资本流动报告（TIC）显示，日 本3月增持49亿美元美国国债，持仓规模为11308亿美元，依然是美国第一 ...

2025年5月美元汇率大幅下跌，主要原因可归结为以下六个方面： 1. 财政赤字与信用风险加剧 美国国会通过的新减税法案预计未来十年新增数万亿美元财政赤字，叠加穆迪等评级机构调降美国主权 及银行信用评级，市场对美债可持续性担忧加剧。这一背景下，美国国债拍卖遇冷，5月22日20年期国 债拍卖需求疲软，长期收益率大幅飙升，反映投资者要求更高风险溢价，直接拖累美元指数跌破99关 口。 2. 关税政策冲击全球信心 特朗普公开施压美联储大幅降息，甚至威胁解雇主席鲍威尔，引发市场对货币发行政治化的担忧。这种 干预动摇了美元信用基础，部分投资者认为美联储可能丧失抑制通胀的能力，加剧美元抛售潮。同期美 债收益率曲线陡峭化，10年期国债收益率突破4.5%，显示市场对长期通胀预期升温。 4. 全球去美元化进程加速 中国、俄罗斯等国家推动本币结算和黄金储备多元化，叠加美国滥用金融制裁导致美元资产信任度下 降。IMF数据显示人民币购买力平价被显著低估（3.55元/1美元），促使国际资本重新配置资产。5月美 元指数较年初累计下跌11.1%，创2005年以来最差开局。 5. 美元套利逻辑逆转 日本央行加息至0.25%并缩减超长期国债购买， ...

Group 1 - China has reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds for the third consecutive month, with the amount falling to the lowest level since 2009, totaling $767.4 billion after a decrease of $7.6 billion in March [1] - In contrast, Japan increased its holdings by $19.9 billion to $1.19 trillion, while the UK raised its holdings by $26.8 billion to a record high of $728.1 billion [1] - Concurrently, the People's Bank of China has been making significant purchases of gold, indicating a strategic shift in asset allocation [1][2] Group 2 - China's strict control over domestic gold flows has led to a record import of 127.5 metric tons of gold in April, marking a 73% increase, alongside a new record of 11.5 metric tons of platinum imports [2] - Analysts highlight that the US is facing a structural crisis of dollar credit and debt, with long-term fiscal deficits leading to an imbalance in Treasury supply and demand, posing threats of economic recession and hyperinflation [3] - The importance of gold as a stable asset to hedge against dollar volatility is emphasized, as China aims to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and reduce reliance on US Treasury bonds [6][8] Group 3 - The ongoing reduction of US Treasury holdings by China may exert additional pressure on the US economy, signaling a decline in confidence in dollar assets, which could lead to a cautious approach from other investors towards US debt [8] - The historical context of US presidents expressing concern over rising national debt without taking substantial action is noted, with the current national debt reaching an alarming $36 trillion [6] - The internationalization of the renminbi is accelerating as China's economic influence grows, necessitating a diversified foreign exchange reserve system [6][8]

法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）指出，面对美国新一轮贸易关税打击，日本当局在支持这个亚洲第二大 经济体方面所能动用的财政与货币政策手段非常有限。 "日本在财政和货币政策上几乎没有多少回旋余地来支持经济增长，"该行首席经济学家伊莎贝尔·马特 奥斯·伊·拉戈（Isabelle Mateos y Lago）5月21日在东京接受采访时表示。 "不幸的是，日本必须在几乎得不到政策助力的情况下，度过这一高度不确定的时期。" 她指出，虽然由前首相安倍晋三于2015年启动的企业治理改革举措将在一定程度上提振经济，但其效应 还需要时间逐步显现。 央行加息恐将延后 在美国总统特朗普"美国优先"政策推动下，日本汽车及零部件对美出口被征收额外25%的关税，钢铁和 铝产品亦同样被加征25%税率，其他商品则被施加所谓"对等"关税，税率为24%。 根据日本贸易振兴机构的数据，2023年出口占日本国内生产总值的约17%。美国是日本最大的出口市 场，其次是中国，这一趋势在2024年仍在延续。 鉴于关税预计将对以出口为导向的经济造成冲击，日本央行已下调了2025年和2026财年的增长预期，并 强调全球贸易前景存在"极高"的不确定性。 日本 ...

实时数据：5月26日亚盘早市，现货黄金延续上周五跌势，日内最低触及3331.38美元/盎司，较上周五收盘价3356.21美元/ 盎司下跌约0.23%。 | 昨收 | 3356.21 | 最高 | 3356.81 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3356.18 | 最低 | 3331.38 | | 买入 | 3348.63 | 卖出 | 3348.83 | 一、特朗普政策反复无常，贸易风险持续扰动市场 交易策略：详情请见专栏《独家观点》 尽管短期波动加剧，但黄金长期牛市根基未改。美国联邦债务突破36万亿美元，穆迪下调美国主权信用评级，叠加关税可 能推升通胀至3.0-3.5%，黄金作为抗通胀和避险资产的需求持续增强。此外，央行购金和ETF资金流入提供长期支撑， 2025年金价仍有望冲击3400美元/盎司。投资者可利用回调机会逐步布局中长期多单，止损参考3300美元关键支撑。 风险提示：以上分析基于公开信息，不构成投资建议。市场有风险，交易需谨慎。 二、美联储会议纪要与PCE数据成关键节点 本周市场将聚焦两大核心事件： 美联储5月会议纪要（5月29日）：市场预期纪要将披露美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing slight pressure due to a delay in high tariffs on the EU announced by President Trump, which has reduced market concerns over global trade conflicts and subsequently weakened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 26, gold prices reported at $3347.54 per ounce, with a decline of 0.28%, reaching a high of $3356.32 and a low of $3331.05 during the session [1] - The overall trend for gold last week was a volatile upward movement, with a weekly low of $3204 and a high of $3365, closing the week at $3359 [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The delay in tariff implementation has temporarily pressured gold prices, but concerns over global inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook continue to support gold's value [2] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1" has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, putting additional pressure on the dollar [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise, influenced by the U.S. rating downgrade, ongoing gold purchases by major Asian countries, and trade-related anxieties [2]

Currency Exchange Rates - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell to 96.2, down 0.5% week-on-week; the BIS RMB exchange rate index dropped to 101.79, down 0.57%, marking a new low since September 2023; the SDR RMB exchange rate index decreased to 91, down 0.42% [1] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1895, up 142 basis points for the week, reaching a new high since November 8 of the previous year; the offshore RMB against the USD rose by 376 basis points, closing at 7.1722 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. 20-year Treasury bond auction results were poor, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.46, the lowest since February of this year; the yield reached 5.047%, marking the second time it exceeded 5% [3] - The Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 49.5, indicating economic contraction, with the services PMI dropping to 48.9, the lowest since January 2024 [4] Foreign Investment and Trade - In April 2025, foreign capital net purchases of domestic bonds reached $10.9 billion, indicating a high level of foreign investment; foreign investment in domestic stocks turned into net buying in late April [2] - China's trade with Central and Eastern European countries reached 329.68 billion yuan in the first four months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, setting a historical high for the same period [6] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a simultaneous decrease in loan and deposit rates, with the one-year and five-year LPR down by 10 basis points to 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively [7] - The PBOC will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, resulting in a net injection of 375 billion yuan for the third consecutive month [7]

本周，美元呈现下跌态势，主要是因资金逃离美元资产。资金出现这种流向，主要源于评级公司调降了 美国主权信用评级、特朗普减税法案对美国赤字前景的负面影响，以及关税后续谈判进展不顺利等因 素。 基于同样的原因，美国国债市场本周也遭遇大幅下跌。就当前情况来看，资金外流的最主要去向是欧 盟、英国及日本。 在本周，美国公布的经济指标数量并不多。周四公布的数据显示，尽管当前经济存在较高的不确定性， 但5月劳动力市场依然保持着稳健的增长态势。至5月17日当周初请失业金人数为22.7万人，优于市场预 期的23万人。这一数据在一定程度上反映了美国劳动力市场的韧性，但未能改变美元因资金外流等因素 导致的下跌趋势。 每日经济新闻 在经历连续四周的上涨之后，本周美元走势急剧转弱。美元指数在一周内累计大幅下跌1.84%，降至 99.10点。深入分析本周美元下跌的原因，主要有以下三个方面： 评级下调引发投资者信心动摇：5月16日，评级公司穆迪将美国主权信用评级从"Aaa"下调至"Aa1"。这 一举措使得投资者原本就存在的对美元资产的回避心理进一步加剧。穆迪作出这一评级调整，主要是出 于对美国超高财政赤字及沉重债务负担的担忧。这一评级下调事 ...