Group 1 - The national carbon market in China has expanded to include high-energy and high-emission industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, now covering over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions [2] - The Chinese approach to low-carbon green technology and industry development emphasizes source governance, direct innovation incentives, low transaction costs, and compatibility with growth, differing from the demand-side incentives seen in the EU [2][3] - The rapid growth of green low-carbon investment, production, and consumption has become a significant driver of China's economic growth, with the government’s "dual carbon" goals providing a clear and stable long-term framework for innovation and investment [3][4] Group 2 - The energy system is crucial for China's green transition, with a strong demand for electricity projected to double by 2060, necessitating a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources [4] - Concerns about overcapacity in the renewable energy sector are deemed short-term and localized, with significant growth potential remaining to meet carbon neutrality goals [5] - The national carbon market has seen significant developments since its launch in 2021, with the introduction of new trading mechanisms and an increase in the number of covered emission units [6][7] Group 3 - The inclusion of the steel industry in the carbon market is expected to accelerate its low-carbon transformation and optimize production capacity, although short-term cost pressures may affect small and medium enterprises [6] - The carbon market serves as an important policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting a comprehensive green low-carbon transition in the economy [7] - A proposed new trading mechanism could incentivize innovation in low-carbon technologies by allowing high-carbon companies to purchase carbon credits from innovative green enterprises, creating a direct link between carbon pricing and innovation [7]

长江商报消息 来自碳排放权登记结算（武汉）有限责任公司（简称"中碳登"）的消息显示，钢铁、水 泥、铝冶炼三大"工业巨头"正式加入全国碳市场，新增的1000多家重点排放单位本月都已完成全国碳市 场账户的开立，中国碳市场迈入多行业协同减排2.0时代。 作为中碳登所在地，湖北此次表现亮眼，约40家区域试点碳市场企业成功"晋级"至全国碳市场。而作为 全国碳市场的"碳资产大脑"，中碳登正在重塑湖北产业生态，更成为推动中国实现"双碳"目标的重要引 擎。 碳排放覆盖量新增30亿吨 碳市场是利用市场机制积极应对气候变化、推动经济社会绿色低碳转型的重大制度安排，是国际通行的 气候治理政策工具。 2021年7月，中国以发电行业为突破口，启动了全国碳排放权交易市场上线交易，覆盖了发电行业重点 排放单位近2200家，年覆盖二氧化碳排放量超过50亿吨。2021年12月31日，全国碳市场第一个履约周期 顺利结束，114个交易日碳排放配额累计成交量1.79亿吨，累计成交额76.61亿元。截至2024年底，全国 碳排放权交易市场配额累计成交量6.3亿吨，累计成交额430.33亿元。 在政策上，湖北加快支持碳市场建设。今年3月，湖北发布《湖北 ...

智通财经APP获悉，5月23日，中国有色金属工业协会发布的中国铝冶炼产业月度景气指数监测模型结 果显示，4月份，中国铝冶炼产业景气指数为64.4，较3月份上升2个点，进入"偏热"区间底部；先行合 成指数为80.7，较3月份上升4.7个点。近期行业发展过程中存在一些波动，但铝冶炼产业经济运行整体 趋势向好。先行指数的上升可能受市场需求预期改善、行业政策支持等多种因素的影响。预计未来一段 时期，我国铝冶炼行业将会继续在"偏热"区间或重回"正常"区间运行。 | 月份 | 先行合成指数 | -致合成指数 | 滞后合成指数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (2005年=100) | (2005年=100) | (2005年=100) | | | 2024 年 4月 | 622 | 118.7 | 652 | 47.7 | | 2024年5月 | 63.7 | 126.0 | 66.1 | 515 | | 2024年6月 | 65.1 | 132.3 | 682 | 54.7 | | 2024 年 7月 | 66.0 | 136.0 | 70.8 | 56.6 | | 20 ...

钢铁、水泥和铝冶炼3个行业被纳入全国碳市场，三者都是高碳排产业，但排放源有所不同。钢铁和水 泥行业的碳排放主要来自生产制程（制造业中的一系列生产流程和环节），而铝冶炼行业的碳排放主要 来自电力使用。因此，铝冶炼的脱碳关键在于电力绿化，包括以绿电投资来推动绿电的开发和使用。 铝产业链的环节有铝矿开采、氧化铝生成、电解制铝、铝材加工等，其中电解环节的碳排放最多，约占 总量的70%。铝冶炼采用"冰晶石—氧化铝熔盐电解"工艺，涉及以氧化铝作为电解质，以碳素材料作为 电极。这个流程在直流电作用下发生电化学反应，氧化铝与碳阳极的还原反应产生二氧化碳，在阴极析 出铝液。以全球平均数来看，每吨铝阳极氧化过程产生的直接碳排放约为两吨CO2，其余则为电力相关 的间接碳排放。 我国电解铝的用电以传统煤电为主，各家厂商的电力碳排放虽会受到当地电网及其自备电力碳强度的影 响，但行业的平均电力相关碳强度约为12吨CO2 /吨铝，其中75%来自煤电排放。因此，煤电"换绿"是我 国电解铝脱碳的关键。 然而，绿电投资的资金金额大，回报周期长，收益不确定，开发风险高，民间资本的参与意愿不足。对 此，电解铝厂商可与电力产业共同探索可行投资模式，如 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - With China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity approaching the upper limit of 45 million tons, overseas electrolytic aluminum supply has become the main variable in global supply. The report aims to analyze the operating conditions of major overseas aluminum smelting enterprises and predict the supply trend [2][4]. - Overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is highly concentrated and mainly located in regions rich in energy resources. Currently, with sufficient energy supply and an improved aluminum market, the overall overseas electrolytic aluminum operating rate is rising. However, due to the high capacity utilization rate, the production increase from capacity expansion is limited. Existing capacity increments may come from Europe, North America, Latin America, and Africa. In terms of new capacity, the Middle East, India, and Indonesia in Southeast Asia have clear and large - scale expansion plans, which are expected to be important sources of overseas electrolytic aluminum supply growth [2][34]. 3. Company - Specific Summaries 3.1 Rusal - Rusal is a leading global aluminum company, ranking third in global aluminum smelting production in 2024 with an output of nearly 4 million tons, accounting for about 5.5% of the global total [5]. - Its smelting plants are mainly in Russia (Siberia and Ural regions) and overseas. In 2024, its existing aluminum plants had an operating capacity of 42.05 million tons with a utilization rate of 95%, leaving limited room for further improvement [6][7]. - In 2024, Asia was its largest sales market, accounting for 42.9%. Due to sanctions from Europe and the United States, it sold more aluminum ingots to Asia, especially China, where its revenue from China accounted for 30.7% in 2024, up from 6.4% in 2021 [12]. 3.2 Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto is a leading global mining and metal company and one of the top ten global aluminum producers, with a complete industrial chain from bauxite mining to electrolytic aluminum smelting [14]. - Its electrolytic aluminum plants are mainly in Australia, Canada, Iceland, New Zealand, and Oman, mostly using hydropower. In 2025, its planned production is basically the same as in 2024 (equity production of about 3.3 million tons). It is also promoting the expansion of the Arvida AP60 project in Canada, which will add 160,000 tons of capacity and is planned to be put into operation in the first half of 2026 [15][16]. 3.3 Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) - EGA is the largest aluminum company in the Middle East and one of the top ten global electrolytic aluminum producers. In 2024, it produced 2.69 million tons of electrolytic aluminum with relatively stable production [17][20]. 3.4 Vedanta Resources - Vedanta Aluminium, a subsidiary of Vedanta Resources in India, is the largest aluminum producer in India and one of the top ten global electrolytic aluminum producers. In 2024, its total output was 2.417 million tons, a 2.4% increase from 2023. In 2025 Q1, its aluminum production remained stable. It is promoting the expansion of the Balco aluminum plant (adding about 410,000 tons of capacity), planned to be put into operation in the 2025 - 2026 fiscal year, with a long - term plan to increase annual capacity to 3 million tons [21]. 3.5 Alcoa - Alcoa is a leading global aluminum company with a wide - ranging business. In 2024, its electrolytic aluminum output was about 2.215 million tons, and in Q1 2025, it was about 564,000 tons. In 2025, with the further increase in the smelting plant operating rate, it plans to produce 2.3 - 2.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum [22][24]. 3.6 Hydro - Hydro is the largest comprehensive aluminum group in Europe and a global leader, focusing on low - carbon hydropower aluminum. In 2024, its production at various plants showed different levels of output, with the Slovalco plant in Slovakia having no electrolytic aluminum output [25][28]. 3.7 Alba - Alba is a leading global aluminum smelting enterprise. In 2024, its output was 1.622 million tons, higher than in 2023. In Q1 2025, its output was 397,000 tons, with a slight decline. It is now aiming to increase capacity by renovating old production lines and installing new electrolytic cells [29]. 3.8 Hindalco - Hindalco is a comprehensive aluminum company in India and one of the lowest - cost aluminum producers globally. In 2024, it produced 1.327 million tons of electrolytic aluminum. It announced an investment plan in the 2024 fiscal year general meeting to expand its aluminum and copper smelting capacity, including expanding the Aditya aluminum smelting capacity by about 200,000 tons [30]. 3.9 South32 - South32 is a global mining and metal enterprise. Its electrolytic aluminum business is mainly in Brazil, South Africa, and Mozambique. In 2024, its production at different plants varied, with the Alumar plant in Brazil having an output of 118,000 tons (40% stake), the Hillside plant in South Africa having an output of 723,000 tons, and the Mozal plant in Mozambique having an output of 326,000 tons (63.7% stake) [31]. 3.10 Press Metal - Press Metal is the largest integrated aluminum producer in Southeast Asia. Its aluminum smelting plants are in Malaysia, with an annual capacity of about 1.08 million tons, all powered by hydropower, making it an important provider of low - carbon aluminum [32].

Core Viewpoint - The White House announced that Emirates Global Aluminium will invest $4 billion in developing an aluminum smelting project in Oklahoma [1] Group 1 - Emirates Global Aluminium is making a significant investment of $4 billion [1] - The investment is aimed at developing an aluminum smelting project in the state of Oklahoma [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need to deepen ecological civilization reforms and promote a carbon trading market to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1] Group 1: Carbon Market Development - The national carbon emissions trading market currently covers 2,257 key emission units in the power generation sector, accounting for approximately 5.1 billion tons of CO2 emissions annually, which is about 40% of the national total [1] - The current carbon market is limited in industry coverage and has low market activity due to high homogeneity among participants, necessitating the inclusion of more high-emission industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum [1][2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued a plan to gradually include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries into the national carbon emissions trading market, aiming to enhance carbon reduction efforts and create a more effective carbon market [1][2] Group 2: Policy Implementation and Mechanisms - The plan aims to expand the market coverage by incorporating around 1,500 enterprises from the steel, cement, and aluminum sectors, focusing on those with annual greenhouse gas emissions of 26,000 tons of CO2 equivalent [2] - It establishes a unified management system for emissions across various industries, enhancing the carbon pricing mechanism and encouraging companies to prioritize carbon management [2] - The plan outlines a multi-layered and differentiated collaborative control model for direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, integrating the carbon trading market with renewable energy and green certificate markets [2] Group 3: Data Management and Monitoring - The plan emphasizes improving carbon emission accounting standards and data governance, requiring enterprises to conduct high-quality measurements of key parameters and explore online monitoring technologies [3] - It mandates monthly verification of key parameters by major emission units and implements a three-tier data quality audit system to enhance transparency and reliability in the carbon trading market [3] Group 4: Allocation of Carbon Quotas - The plan details a phased approach to carbon quota allocation for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, with the 2024 quota based on verified actual emissions, avoiding compliance costs for enterprises [4] - Future quotas for 2025 and 2026 will be determined based on carbon intensity, with a focus on minimizing the impact on normal business operations [4] - The plan aims to gradually tighten total quota limits to facilitate the transition of these industries towards green and low-carbon practices [4] Group 5: Recommendations for Policy Enhancement - The plan suggests establishing a long-term management mechanism for carbon emissions rights, gradually reducing annual quota totals while ensuring alignment with industry development stages [5][6] - It advocates for the integration of various policies to promote the collaborative development of carbon and electricity markets, enhancing the market's overall effectiveness [6]

作者：邱慈观，上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授、可持续金融学科发展专项基金学术主任 李小千，可持续金融学科发展专项基金研究专员 生态环境部近期发布全国碳排放权交易市场的工作方案，将钢铁、水泥和铝冶炼三个产业纳入全国碳市 场。作为高碳排产业，与钢铁和水泥行业的碳排放主要来自生产制程不同，铝冶炼产业的碳排放主要来 自电力使用。 对于铝冶炼行业，其脱碳的关键在于绿电。然而绿电投资大，回报周期长，收益不确定。未来电解铝厂 商应与电力产业共探可行的投资模式，如通过合资模式来扩大资金来源、通过风险缓释机制来降低投资 风险等，从而创造有利环境，推动产业绿色转型。 绿电是铝冶炼脱碳关键 从国内外绿电投资经验看，企业可通过引入社会资本来降低绿电项目开发对其财务杠杆的影响。电解铝 厂商主要通过合资模式引入社会资本，以共同投资绿电项目，而电力企业则可通过另类投资工具募集社 会资本，以扩大资金规模。 合资模式上，当项目方与外部资本以合资方式参与绿电项目时，双方共同开发、共享收益，开发企业则 通过投资成本的分摊，降低自身杠杆，也通过引入社会资本提高项目落地的成功性。 铝产业链包括铝矿开采、氧化铝生成、电解制铝、铝材加工等环节，其中，电 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift from decline to growth in the month-on-month comparison [1][3] - Food prices rose by 0.2%, while non-food prices increased by 0.1%, with service prices up by 0.3%, driven by seasonal factors and demand recovery [3][4] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting stable supply-demand dynamics [3][10] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to international input factors and seasonal drops in energy prices [1][9] - Certain industrial sectors showed signs of price stabilization, with black metal and non-metal mineral product prices experiencing reduced year-on-year declines [5][6] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was influenced by falling prices in the petroleum and natural gas extraction sectors, as well as in the non-ferrous metal industries [9][10] Group 3: Economic Policies and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China noted that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are beginning to take effect, which is expected to support a moderate recovery in price levels [1][10] - Recent macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools, are designed to stimulate domestic demand and support price stability [10] - The upcoming holiday seasons are anticipated to boost service prices, contributing to a potential recovery in the core CPI [10]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.1%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year [1][2]. CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI change shifted from decline to increase, with a core CPI increase of 0.2% month-on-month and a stable year-on-year increase of 0.5%. This reflects the resilience of the economy [2][4]. - Food prices rose by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.3%, driven by seasonal factors and demand recovery during the holiday period [3][4]. PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.4% was consistent with the previous month, influenced by international factors and seasonal declines in energy prices [8][10]. - Certain industrial sectors showed signs of price recovery, with reduced year-on-year declines in sectors such as black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products [5][6]. Sector Performance - High-tech industries and construction activities contributed to a positive trend in some industrial prices, with specific sectors like wearable smart devices and aircraft manufacturing showing price increases [5][6]. - The international oil price decline negatively impacted domestic oil-related industries, leading to price drops in sectors such as petroleum extraction and refining [10]. Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China anticipates that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand will support a moderate recovery in price levels [2][11]. - Recent monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools, are expected to stimulate domestic demand and support price stability [11].