Report Title - "National Carbon Market: One Thing Gains While Another Loses, Aftershocks Still Linger — Outlook for the Annual Market of the National Carbon Market in 2026" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The macro - emission reduction target will provide an important reference for the downward adjustment path of the power generation industry's quota benchmark value. If 2025 is the peak - year, the average annual emission reduction rate of carbon dioxide from 2026 to 2035 needs to reach about 0.7% - 1.0%. In the neutral power generation growth scenario, the power generation emission intensity in 2026 needs to be reduced by at least about 1.1% - 1.4% compared with 2025. The estimated quota gap rate of the power generation industry in 2025 may expand to about 1.1% - 1.4%, corresponding to an annual gap of about 0.6 - 0.7 billion tons [2]. - The supply capacity of CCER will continue to expand in 2026, which will weaken the upward driving force of carbon prices. The total supply of "new supply + inventory" of CCER in 2026 is expected to reach about 25 - 32.5 million tons. If the CCER price returns to the normal range of "discount to CEA" in 2026, key emission units may use CCER on a large scale to replace quotas or fill compliance gaps [3]. - In 2026, the market will continue to digest the past quota surpluses, but the decline in surpluses is limited. Under the existing policies, the carbon price is expected to rise moderately, but it is difficult to return to the historical high. If new policies can give the market a clear expectation of the emission reduction path, the carbon price is expected to break through the historical high [3]. - The annual strategy is to go long on dips below 70 yuan/ton and take profit above 90 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Review Carbon Price Breakdown and Limited Rebound - In 2025, the price of China's national carbon market carbon emission allowances (CEA) showed a downward trend, with the price center shifting down by about 35% year - on - year. As of December 5, 2025, the average transaction price of the whole market was about 61.48 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decline of about 35%. The price trend can be divided into three stages: sharp decline in the first three quarters, a sharp drop and then a rebound in October, and a rise and then a fall in mid - November [8]. - The older the year - label of the quota, the firmer the quota price. As of December 5, 2025, the average transaction price of CEA24 was the lowest at about 59.04 yuan/ton, while CEA19 - 20 had the highest average transaction price at 75.13 yuan/ton [13] Nearly 9% Annual Turnover Rate and Increased Share of Listing Transactions - Thanks to "advance allocation" and "quota carry - over", the market trading activity continued to improve. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative trading volume was about 194.23 million tons, the cumulative turnover was about 11.9 billion yuan, and the annual turnover rate was nearly 9%. The cumulative trading volume increased by about 53% year - on - year, and the turnover rate increased by 5.3 percentage points [15]. - Bulk agreement transactions still dominated, but the share of listing agreement transactions increased significantly, rising by about 11 percentage points year - on - year. The one - way call auction trading introduced in July was relatively inactive due to the rule setting and the market decline [17][19]. - CEA24 was the main trading target in 2025, accounting for about 71% of the trading volume as of December 5, 2025 [19] Four Key Policy Nodes Affected Market Trading Rhythm - The "rectification and volume increase" expectation in February was falsified as the 2023 compliance completion rate was high. The release of the expansion plan in March led to the release of forced - circulation quotas. The pre - allocation of quotas in April and the stable recovery of carbon prices doubled the market trading scale. The final allocation of quotas in August led to the largest concentrated trading volume of the year. The release of the quota plan for newly - included industries in November increased the potential demand, but the actual procurement demand was limited [21][24][25] 2026 Supply - Demand Outlook Power Generation Industry: Disassembling Macro - Emission Reduction Targets to Anchor the Downward Adjustment Path of Benchmark Values - China's attitude towards achieving the 2030 intensity target is relatively prudent, leaving room for policy adjustment. When setting the 2035 emission target, China took a relatively cautious attitude, leaving necessary strategic space for the implementation of the 2030 intensity target [33]. - Assuming 2025 as the peak - year, the average annual emission reduction rate of carbon dioxide from 2026 to 2035 needs to reach about 0.7% - 1.0%. In the neutral power generation growth scenario, the power generation emission intensity in 2026 needs to be reduced by at least about 1.1% - 1.4% compared with 2025. The estimated quota gap rate of the power generation industry in 2025 may expand to about 1.1% - 1.4%, corresponding to an annual gap of about 0.6 - 0.7 billion tons [38][39][44] CCER: Expanding Supply Capacity and Weakening the Upward Driving Force of Carbon Prices - The CCER market restarted in January 2022, but the project development rhythm was slower than expected in the early stage due to factors such as methodological disputes and the slowdown of project review and verification by the regulatory authorities [45]. - The CCER supply in 2025 was about 15 million tons, and about 5 million tons were used for 2024 compliance. The estimated market surplus at the end of 2025 was about 10 million tons [47][49]. - It is estimated that the new supply of CCER in 2026 will be 15 - 22.5 million tons, and the total supply of "new supply + inventory" is expected to reach about 25 - 32.5 million tons. If the CCER price returns to the normal range of "discount to CEA", it may significantly weaken the annual supply - demand contradiction in the national carbon market [52][53] 2026 Market Outlook - In 2026, the quota gap in the power generation industry may expand, but it will be partially offset by the increase in CCER supply. The market will continue to digest the past quota surpluses, but the decline in surpluses is limited [55]. - In the first half of 2026, the market may be in a "near - stagnant" state. The carry - over rule will still have a residual impact on the market, and the market confidence needs to be restored before the introduction of new policies [55][56]. - Under the existing policies, the carbon price is expected to rise moderately, but it is difficult to return to the historical high. If new policies can give the market a clear expectation of the emission reduction path, the carbon price is expected to break through the historical high [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are concerned about the US non - farm payrolls, with weak risk appetite, while the domestic economic data continues to be weak, and the A - share market is expected to be weak in the short term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [2][3] - Precious metals may have a technical correction, but platinum and palladium are expected to rise; copper prices will fluctuate in the short term; aluminum prices will fluctuate at a high level; alumina's upward space is limited; casting aluminum will fluctuate at a high level; zinc prices are adjusting and waiting for macro - guidance; lead prices will fluctuate weakly; tin prices will continue to adjust at a high level; industrial silicon prices are expected to rebound; steel prices will fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices will be under pressure; coking coal and coke prices will fluctuate weakly; soybean and rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate; palm oil prices will fluctuate in a range [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][15][16][18][19][20][22][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - Overseas: Fed officials' remarks affect market expectations, Japan's manufacturing confidence supports central bank rate hikes, and before important data releases, overseas market risk appetite is weak [2] - Domestic: November economic data is cold, with production showing resilience and demand cooling further. The A - share market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metals futures generally rose on Monday, with platinum hitting the daily limit in the domestic market. There is a risk of a technical correction in gold and silver, while platinum and palladium are expected to rise. Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and retail data [4][5] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated at a high level. With a weak US dollar and various macro and industrial factors, copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract fell, and LME aluminum was flat. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data, and with inventory accumulation and seasonal demand slowdown, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the alumina futures main contract rose. Although the price has rebounded, there is a lack of continuous upward momentum, and the upward space is limited [10] 3.6 Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the casting aluminum alloy futures main contract fell. Affected by raw materials and environmental protection, both supply and demand are weakening, but with cost support, it will fluctuate at a high level [11] 3.7 Zinc - On Monday, Shanghai zinc's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the approach of the US non - farm payrolls data, the market is cautious. In the long - term, overseas supply will improve, and currently, the supply pressure is decreasing, so zinc prices will adjust in the short term [12] 3.8 Lead - On Monday, Shanghai lead's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the improvement of overseas supply in the medium - long term and the increase in inventory, the support of low inventory is weakening, but the downward space is limited [13][14] 3.9 Tin - On Monday, Shanghai tin's main contract adjusted downward. With the release of multiple economic data and the increase in Indonesian tin exports, the macro and micro support for tin prices is weakening, and it will continue to adjust at a high level [15] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon rebounded at a low level. Supported by cost and market sentiment, it is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [16][17] 3.11 Steel (Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated. With weak terminal demand data, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [18] 3.12 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. With the increase in supply and weak demand, iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [19] 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Monday, double - coking futures fluctuated weakly. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [20][21] 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, soybean and rapeseed meal contracts fluctuated. With positive South American crop prospects and concerns about US soybean exports, the domestic market will maintain a short - term pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the main contracts will fluctuate [22][23] 3.15 Palm Oil - On Monday, palm oil contracts fell. With weak export demand and expected inventory increase, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. Pay attention to the support at the lower limit of the previous low range [24][26] 3.16 Metal Trading Data - Provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts in the main domestic and international markets on December 15, 2025 [27] 3.17 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the prices, inventories, and other data of various metals on December 15, 2025, with those on December 12, 2025, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal [28][31][33]

Core Viewpoint - The necessity of developing disruptive carbon-neutral technologies is emphasized as high-carbon industries in China, such as electricity, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, have not yet achieved carbon neutrality through traditional methods, highlighting the need for significant investment and innovative approaches to reduce carbon emissions to near-zero levels [1][2]. Summary by Sections Disruptive Carbon Neutral Technology Investment - Approximately half of carbon-neutral technologies have not reached commercial scale, particularly in "hard tech" and "deep tech," which rely heavily on foundational scientific research [2]. - High-carbon industries face significant market investment challenges due to the high capital intensity and long investment cycles required for scaling up carbon-neutral technologies [2][3]. Public Capital to Leverage Market Capital - Public capital is essential for supporting the development of disruptive carbon-neutral technologies due to their dual positive externalities of technological spillover and carbon reduction [4]. - The key to attracting market capital lies in reducing perceived risks through public funding, which can help address both technological and market risks faced by investors [4][5]. Catalytic Mechanisms - Public capital can intervene in the early stages of technology development by providing catalytic funding to improve the risk-reward profile for investors, thus attracting more market capital [5]. - In early commercialization, public capital can enhance the investment appeal by offering guarantees and hybrid funding structures to mitigate the low returns associated with carbon-neutral technologies [5][6]. Capital Empowerment - Public capital can collaborate with market capital in the demonstration and early commercialization phases to fill funding gaps and empower the scaling of innovative technologies [6]. - Establishing venture capital funds focused on carbon-neutral technologies can signal to the market and attract additional investments [6]. Case Studies - Several international and domestic cases illustrate how public capital has successfully attracted market capital in the field of disruptive carbon-neutral technologies, with specific mechanisms and support structures detailed [7][9]. - Examples include Boston Metal and Sublime Systems, which received public grants to validate and scale their technologies, leading to successful market capital participation [10]. - Elysis and Zhongchu Guoneng are highlighted as cases where public capital effectively partnered with market capital to accelerate technology development [11]. Future Outlook - To further promote the innovation of disruptive carbon-neutral technologies, public capital should focus on incubating tech companies, establishing supportive financing policies, and exploring financing mechanisms that align with China's unique context [13][14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets focus on the Fed's policy trends and the expected appointment of the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates more aggressive rate cuts if Hassett is elected, but there is uncertainty due to Powell's term, economic factors, and inflation. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. Domestically, the economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for growth is not yet solid, and attention should be paid to the pace of policy implementation [2]. - The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are interpreted as "QE - like" measures, which are negative for the US dollar index. The RMB exchange rate is affected by US economic data, the appointment of the next Fed Chair, and domestic economic policies. Seasonal settlement effects may support the RMB's appreciation [4]. - The current inflation data supports low interest rates, and the bond market has rebounded. Although there are rumors of mortgage subsidy policies, the bond market reaction is limited. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - The container shipping market on the European route has a mix of long and short factors. There is a possibility of price cuts in late December, and the price of the 02 contract may be pushed up due to the shipping companies' price - holding intentions [6][7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, platinum and palladium are expected to have their price centers lifted in the medium and long term, while copper prices will be mainly driven by fundamentals after the Fed's rate cut. Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, while alumina is expected to be weak. Zinc will maintain a high - level shock, tin will be in a wide - range shock, and lithium carbonate will have a short - term callback pressure [11][13][15]. - In the energy and chemical market, oil prices are affected by the US - Venezuela tension and the Fed's rate cut. LPG will maintain a shock, PTA - PX will follow the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, MEG - bottle chips will face a decline in terminal demand, and urea will be in a range between fundamentals and policies [34][37][40]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply and demand of live pigs in the peak season need to be verified, the oilseeds market is in a positive spread, the oil market will continue to be sorted, cotton prices may have room to rise, sugar prices will remain weak, egg prices have a long - term over - capacity problem, apple prices will remain strong, and jujube prices will be in a low - level shock [73][74][76]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market focuses on the appointment of the next Fed Chair. China's November CPI rose year - on - year, and the real estate sector had a significant rise in the afternoon session [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are negative for the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to US economic data and domestic economic policies [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded, and the current inflation data supports low interest rates. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: The market has a mix of long and short factors, and there is a possibility of price cuts in late December [6][7]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Prices oscillated and corrected. The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are factors, and in the medium and long term, the price centers are expected to be lifted [11]. - **Gold and Silver**: The market generally rose, and in the short term, it is expected to be in shock, while in the long term, it is expected to rise [12][13]. - **Copper**: Prices were strongly sorted, and after the Fed's rate cut, they were mainly driven by fundamentals [14][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Prices maintained a high - level shock [17][18]. - **Tin**: Prices were affected by the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) and are expected to be in a wide - range shock [18][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term callback pressure, but in the long term, it has the value of bottom - fishing allocation [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the prices are expected to be weak [22][23]. - **Lead**: Prices are expected to be in shock, with support at the bottom [24]. Steel - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices rebounded slightly, and the overall market is expected to be in a range shock, with the rebar in the range of 3000 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil in the range of 3200 - 3500 [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices were affected by real - estate news, and the downward space is expected to be limited [27][28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coking coal prices are under pressure in the short term, while coke may face inventory accumulation pressure [29][30][31]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Demand is gradually weakening, and prices are expected to be weakly shocked [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices were lifted due to the US - Venezuela tension, and the Fed's rate cut has a limited impact on prices [34][35][36]. - **LPG**: Prices maintained a shock, with a relatively stable supply and demand situation [37][38][39]. - **PTA - PX**: Prices followed the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, and the supply - demand structure is relatively good in the energy and chemical sector [40][41][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: Terminal demand declined comprehensively, and supply - side negative feedback began to appear. Prices are expected to be short - term in shock and long - term in a downward trend [43][44][46]. - **Urea**: Transactions weakened, and prices are expected to be in a range shock [47][48]. - **PP**: The spot market's pessimistic sentiment dragged down prices, and further short - selling is not recommended [49][50][51]. - **PE**: The supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern continued, and prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level shock [52][53][54]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with different supply - demand situations for pure benzene and styrene [55][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices were in a narrow - range shock, with a stable supply and a mixed demand situation [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking spread was low, and the fundamentals have improved, but it is recommended to wait and see [58]. - **Asphalt**: Prices fluctuated in a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the winter - storage policy [59][60]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rebounded due to weather disturbances and geopolitical conflicts, and are expected to be in a range shock [61][62]. - **Soda Ash and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash prices are under pressure due to over - supply expectations; glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels; caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly shocked [65][66][67]. - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp futures prices reached a four - month high, and both pulp and offset paper are recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Log**: Newly registered warehouse receipts suppressed the price, and it is recommended to participate with caution [69][70]. - **Propylene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [71][72]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply and demand in the peak season need to be verified, and the long - term trend can be bullish, but the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals [73]. - **Oilseeds**: The positive spread continued, and the market is affected by import and domestic supply - demand situations [74][75]. - **Oils**: The MPOB report was negative, and prices are expected to continue to be sorted [76]. - **Cotton**: Prices broke through the pressure level, and if they hold steady, there may be further upward space [77]. - **Sugar**: Prices remained weak [78][79]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in excess, and short - term rebounds can be lightly speculated [80]. - **Apples**: The near - month contract was strong, and the overall market remained strong [81][82]. - **Jujubes**: Prices were in a low - level shock, and the short - term downward space may be limited [83][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the weekly trends of non - ferrous metals, analyzing the price movements, supply - demand situations, and future outlooks of various metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It suggests different trading strategies based on each metal's characteristics, like holding copper long - positions with certain stop - profit measures, being cautious about high - position risks in tin, etc. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Price and Market**: Last week, both domestic and foreign copper prices hit record highs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in February 2026 is high. The spot signal shows that the inflection point of copper price is not obvious. [1] - **Supply**: In December, there is a certain production rush expectation, with an estimated monthly output increase of 5.57 tons. Domestic smelters may choose to reduce the production of 106 primary copper concentrates during equipment shutdown. [1] - **Outlook**: The LME copper price is at a high level, and the spot premium has decreased. The market is mainly trading based on expectations. There is a probability that the upward trend of copper prices may pause. If the Fed cuts interest rates or the domestic spot premium weakens, the copper price at a record high may correct. Long - positions can be held along the M5 moving average, and partial active profit - taking can be considered. [1] 3.2 Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, with no long - term production reduction. In December and January, 50,000 tons and 110,000 tons of exchange warehouse receipts will expire and flow out respectively. [1] - **Demand**: The downstream aluminum processing start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.9% month - on - month. In November, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 14.8% year - on - year but increased by 66,800 tons month - on - month. [1] - **Inventory and Spot**: Aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 985,000 tons, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 7000 tons to 121,000 tons. The inventory is higher than in previous years. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China have widened. [1] - **Outlook**: Non - ferrous metals are still the focus of funds. The upward trend of silver and copper prices has driven up aluminum prices. The medium - term fluctuating and strengthening trend continues, but in the short term, market sentiment may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see. [1] 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Market**: Last week, SHFE zinc rose 3.92% and strongly broke through the annual line, following the external market trend. The internal - external price difference is oscillating at a high level. [1] - **Supply**: LME zinc inventory increased to 55,400 tons. Overseas smelters' production resumption expectations are insufficient. The supply of zinc concentrates is tight, and domestic smelter maintenance is expanding. The zinc ingot export window is open, and downstream demand is stable. [1] - **Demand**: Southern consumption is good, while northern demand weakens with the cold weather. In the "15th Five - Year Plan", the expected investment in underground pipeline network construction and renovation is about 5 trillion, and galvanized pipe consumption is expected to be strong in 2026. [1] - **Outlook**: Supported by tight ore supply, SHFE zinc can be seen as a low - level rebound. After breaking through the annual line, it is expected to further test the 24,000 integer mark. [1] 3.4 Lead - **Price and Market**: Last week, the expectation of smelter production reduction and increased downstream bargain - hunting purchases supported the market rebound. The SHFE lead main contract rose 1.7%, and LME lead rebounded to the 20 - day moving average and then faced pressure. [1] - **Supply**: LME lead inventory decreased to 243,000 tons, still relatively high. The supply of lead concentrates is in short supply, and the recycling volume of waste batteries has decreased. The market supply of lead ingots is tight. [1] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of lead - acid battery production increased by 1.07 percentage points to 24.46% week - on - week. The consumer market has both positive and negative factors, with insufficient incremental expectations. [1] - **Outlook**: Constrained by cost and consumption, SHFE lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton. There may be short - term price increases due to capital movements. [1] 3.5 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: SHFE nickel rebounded and traded sideways at a high level, with light market trading and relatively low positions. SHFE stainless steel also rebounded, but overall trading was sluggish. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In the context of repeated macro - expectations, the willingness of both long and short sides to compete has decreased. Although stainless steel mills have frequently announced production cuts, the actual production reduction in November was insufficient. Downstream demand confidence is lacking. [1] - **Inventory**: Pure nickel inventory increased by 1500 tons to 57,000 tons, nickel iron inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 1000 tons to 997,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: Given high - level inventory and volatile macro - factors, short - selling at high levels is more reasonable. [1] 3.6 Tin - **Price and Market**: Funds have pushed up tin prices. LME tin reached a maximum of $41,000, and SHFE tin weighted price reached a maximum of 323,800 yuan. The short - term price fluctuations have increased. [1] - **Supply**: Indonesia's tin exports in November decreased. The situation in the Congo is uncertain. Domestic tin production may decline slightly in December. The real - world supply of tin ore is tight, and the cost of recycled materials is fluctuating. [1] - **Demand**: There are no bright spots in traditional fields, and the demand highlight is high - end semiconductor products. Domestic spot trading has deepened, and social inventory has increased. [1] - **Outlook**: In 2026, especially after the Spring Festival peak season, the probability of an increase in supply is high, and the recovery speed may be faster than demand. Attention should be paid to high - position risks. [1] 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market**: Last week, lithium carbonate futures adjusted, with active short - selling in the market. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has slightly corrected. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall demand remains strong. In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to perform well. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand. The overall inventory of downstream battery and material factories is flat or slightly reduced. [1] - **Inventory**: The total market inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 113,600 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 3600 tons to 21,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1700 tons to 44,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen sharply from a high level, with large market differences. The fundamentals are generally strong, and the short - side is relatively tight. [1] 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The main contract of industrial silicon S12601 showed a weak downward trend in the range of 8900 - 9030 yuan/ton this week. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Xinjiang has dropped to 9000 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply**: The total production of industrial silicon in December is expected to slightly decline to 396,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%. Some enterprises plan to slightly reduce the supply volume. [1] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 800 tons to 558,000 tons, with an increase in both general and delivery warehouses. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the lower limit of the range. The inventory reduction at the end of the year is still under pressure. If the actual production reduction of local factories is limited, the price may further decline. [1] 3.9 Polysilicon - **Price**: Last week, the main contract of polysilicon reached a high of 59,200 yuan/ton due to the expectation of warehouse receipts. The expansion of delivery brands may suppress bullish sentiment. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The output in November was 114,600 tons, lower than expected. In December, it is expected to slightly decline. Battery and silicon wafer enterprises have reduced production. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 291,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened, but the price may still be strong after a brief negative impact if the registered quantity of warehouse receipts is lower than expected. [1]

碳市场是中国利用市场机制积极应对气候变化，加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的重要政策工具。在 2021年7月、2024年1月，先后启动了全国碳排放权交易市场和全国温室气体自愿减排交易市场的运行。 李高5日在国务院新闻办公室举行的交流会上指出，经过四年多的建设发展，现在全国碳市场的建设已 经进入快速发展新阶段，已经成为中国推进碳达峰碳中和的重要机制，也成为中国碳定价的主要方式。 中新社北京12月6日电 (记者阮煜琳)中国生态环境部副部长李高5日在北京表示，按计划，到2027年，全 国碳排放权交易市场基本覆盖工业领域的主要排放行业，全国温室气体自愿减排交易市场实现重点领域 全覆盖。对于排放总量相对稳定的行业，要优先实施配额总量控制，稳妥推进免费、有偿相结合的碳排 放配额分配方式。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） "现在全国碳市场多层级的制度体系已经基本建成。"李高说，今年3月，经国务院批准，全国碳排放权 交易市场首次扩大行业覆盖范围，现在覆盖发电、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼四个行业，纳入3500余家重点排 放单位，实现了对全国60%以上碳排放量的有效管控。全国自愿减排交易市场已发布12项方法学，涵盖 可再生能源、生态系统碳汇、甲烷 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued the "Quota Plan" for the national carbon emission trading market, focusing on the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries for the years 2024 and 2025 [1] - The plan emphasizes a dynamic linkage between enterprise quota and actual output, without setting an absolute cap on carbon emissions, ensuring necessary development space for industries [2] - The carbon quota distribution will target the most carbon-intensive production enterprises, which account for over 98% of emissions in their respective sectors [2] Group 1 - The "Quota Plan" outlines the allocation and management of carbon quotas for key emission units in the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, with the first quota compliance expected within the year [1] - Industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and paper-making are in the preparatory phase for inclusion in the carbon trading market, aiming for comprehensive coverage by 2027 [1][6] - The plan encourages companies to optimize production processes and adopt low-carbon technologies, such as electric arc furnaces and hydrogen reduction methods, to achieve deeper decarbonization [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is enhancing the management of carbon emission data quality, which is crucial for the national carbon market's construction [4] - Measures include improving the accounting and reporting verification system, and encouraging companies to innovate data quality management techniques using technologies like blockchain and IoT [4][5] - Following the market expansion in 2025, it is expected that 1,500 new key emission units will be added, covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions [4] Group 3 - The expansion of the carbon trading market will be conducted in a phased manner, based on the maturity of each industry and the quality of data available [6][7] - The Ministry aims to gradually include additional sectors, with a target for the carbon trading market to cover major industrial emission sectors by 2027 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of green and low-carbon development as a key aspect of achieving high-quality economic growth, guided by Xi Jinping's ecological civilization thought [2][4]. Group 1: Green Development Initiatives - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, China has focused on a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, promoting carbon reduction, pollution control, and green growth [2]. - The country has achieved significant milestones in non-fossil energy development, doubling its installed capacity for non-fossil energy generation, with wind and solar power reaching the 2030 national contribution targets ahead of schedule [6][8]. Group 2: Climate Change Commitments - This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, with China announcing its 2035 national contribution targets, which encompass all greenhouse gases, showcasing its commitment to global green development [4]. - China has actively participated in international climate governance, signing 55 South-South cooperation memorandums with 43 developing countries and implementing over 300 capacity-building projects [8]. Group 3: Market Mechanisms and Economic Impact - The establishment of the world's largest carbon market has been a significant step, with over 8 billion tons of carbon traded and a transaction value exceeding 54 billion yuan [8]. - The manufacturing sector is increasingly adopting green practices, with 6,430 national-level green factories contributing approximately 20% to the overall output [8]. Group 4: Future Directions - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, enhancing green development momentum, and promoting the construction of a beautiful China [10].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released the carbon quota allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries for 2024 and 2025, emphasizing a free allocation model based on carbon emissions per unit output [2][3] - The allocation plan focuses on direct emissions from production processes and excludes indirect emissions from purchased electricity and heat [2] - The plan aims to gradually expand the carbon market while ensuring policy continuity and providing institutional support for a stable market expansion [3] Group 2 - The central enterprises are highlighted as key players in promoting green and low-carbon transformation, with a call for them to take the lead in this initiative [4] - The COP30 event showcased China's commitment to green development and its role in global climate governance, emphasizing the importance of corporate responsibility in achieving carbon neutrality [4][6] Group 3 - The "China Energy Transition and New Energy Development" side event at COP30 gathered representatives to discuss systemic challenges and innovative solutions for energy transition [5] - Reports released during the event outlined China's achievements and practices in renewable energy, providing a systematic approach to global energy transition [5][6] Group 4 - In October 2025, the total electricity consumption in China reached 8,572 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with significant contributions from the tertiary sector and urban residential electricity consumption [7][8] - The data indicates a continuous optimization of industrial structure, with strong growth in high-tech manufacturing and modern services contrasting with slower growth in high-energy-consuming industries [8] Group 5 - The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is reported to have an annual carbon sink of approximately 30 million tons, contributing significantly to China's carbon neutrality goals [9] - The region's carbon sink function is expected to enhance further through ecological protection and restoration efforts [9] Group 6 - The UNITAR side event at COP30 focused on building green and low-carbon cities, showcasing China's innovative practices in urban low-carbon governance [10] - The collaboration between public and private sectors is emphasized as a key factor in achieving carbon neutrality goals [10][12] Group 7 - BCI Group introduced a "vertical integration industry model" aimed at addressing the energy consumption challenges of AI computing power, advocating for a comprehensive approach to sustainable development [11][12] - The model emphasizes the importance of green energy supply and system efficiency in achieving carbon reduction in high-energy-consuming industries [12]