Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released the "Quota Allocation Plan for National Carbon Emission Trading Market for Steel, Cement, and Aluminum Smelting Industries for 2024 and 2025," which outlines the allocation, clearing, and transfer of carbon emission quotas for these industries [1] - The plan continues the framework of free quota allocation based on carbon emission intensity control, linking the quota amount to actual carbon output, without setting an absolute cap on total emissions, thus ensuring necessary space for industry development [1] - The plan aims to incentivize carbon reduction by allowing companies with lower carbon emissions per unit product to have higher quota surplus rates [1] Industry Expansion - The Ministry has initiated preparatory work for expanding the carbon trading market to include industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking, with technical documents being drafted for quota allocation and reporting guidelines [2] - The expansion will follow the principle of "mature one, include one," based on industry development status, pollution reduction contributions, data quality, and carbon emission characteristics [2] - By 2027, the carbon trading market is expected to cover major emission industries in the industrial sector, with a gradual shift from intensity control to total control for industries with stable total emissions [2]

从业资格号:F03097187 投资咨询号: Z0020317 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 2025年11月17日,生态环境部发布《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和 分配方案》（下称《方案》）:对比生态环境部之前发布的征求意见稿,《方案》有两处调整:(1)碳排放强度与碳 排放强度偏离度的系数由0.1调整为0.15,碳排放强度偏离度上下限由±30%调整为±20%; (2)钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行 业重点排放单位基础结转量由1万吨调整为10万吨;对于纳入两个及两个以上行业的重点排放单位,其基础结转量由1万 吨调整为各行业重点排放单位基础结转量的总和(≥11万吨)。 2025年11月19日,碳排放配额早盘直线拉升涨停,收盘略有回调,收盘价66.86元/吨,涨幅超8%。 三大行业基础结转量增加,碳价大幅上涨! 2025/11/19 能源转型与碳中和组 伊 张默涵 《方案》的调整为碳价提供有效支撑,建议关注逢低买入的机会。 受《方案》的影响,碳价早盘直线拉升,并于10:53涨停,收盘时价格略有回调;全天成交量为114.64万吨,较昨日成交 量上涨17.6%。短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese carbon market is maturing through policy improvements and corporate exploration, with a focus on controlling greenhouse gas emissions and reducing overall emission reduction costs [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework and Market Mechanism - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued a plan for the allocation of carbon emission quotas for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries for 2024 and 2025, emphasizing a stable policy framework and free quota allocation based on carbon intensity [1]. - The total carbon quota in the market has exceeded 8 billion tons per year, representing a more than tenfold increase compared to the cumulative transaction volume of 696 million tons in 2024, indicating a surge in emission reduction demand in the industrial sector [1]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - High-energy-consuming industries are facing a "de-involution" demand, where the expansion of the carbon market can encourage companies to reduce emissions and promote industrial upgrades, moving away from low-level homogeneous competition [2]. - The complexity of the industrial sector poses challenges for emission reduction, as seen in the aluminum industry, where production costs are significantly impacted by electricity and carbon costs [4]. Group 3: Data Quality and Regulatory Measures - The quality of carbon emission data is crucial for the healthy operation of the carbon market, with the Ministry of Ecology and Environment emphasizing the need for rigorous monitoring and verification of emission data [5]. - Measures to ensure data quality include improving the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system, enhancing daily regulatory oversight, and encouraging companies to strengthen their internal data management [5].

伊 张默涵 从业资格号:F03097187 投资咨询号: Z0020317 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 三大行业基础结转量增加,碳价大幅上涨! 2025年11月17日,生态环境部发布《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和 分配方案》（下称《方案》）:对比生态环境部之前发布的征求意见稿,《方案》有两处调整:(1)碳排放强度与碳 排放强度偏离度的系数由0.1调整为0.15,碳排放强度偏离度上下限由±30%调整为±20%; (2)钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行 业重点排放单位基础结转量由1万吨调整为10万吨;对于纳入两个及两个以上行业的重点排放单位,其基础结转量由1万 吨调整为各行业重点排放单位基础结转量的总和(≥11万吨)。 2025/11/19 2025年11月19日,碳排放配额早盘直线拉升涨停,收盘略有回调,收盘价66.86元/吨,涨幅超8%。 能源转型与碳中和组 受《方案》的影响,碳价早盘直线拉升,并于10:53涨停,收盘时价格略有回调;全天成交量为114.64万吨,较昨日成交 量上涨17.6%。短期需关注基础结转量的增加带来的潜在需求是否能转化为有效的市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The carbon emissions trading market in China is set to expand significantly by 2027, covering major high-emission industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and paper manufacturing, with a focus on improving data quality and regulatory capacity [1][2][4]. Group 1: Carbon Emissions Trading Market Expansion - By 2027, the carbon emissions trading market will primarily cover major industrial sectors [2]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has initiated preparations to expand coverage to industries like chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and paper manufacturing [1][2]. - The carbon emissions reports from relevant industries since 2013 have been collected and verified to address data quality issues [1]. Group 2: Allocation and Management of Emission Quotas - The allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries has been published, with a focus on free allocation based on carbon intensity control [4][5]. - The quota distribution will target the highest carbon-emitting enterprises, which account for over 98% of emissions in their respective sectors [5]. - The Ministry will issue pre-allocated quotas for 2025 to the steel, cement, and aluminum industries in the first half of next year [8]. Group 3: Data Quality and Regulatory Measures - The Ministry emphasizes the importance of carbon emissions data quality as foundational for the carbon market, with plans to enhance the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system [6][9]. - Advanced technologies such as blockchain, big data, and artificial intelligence will be utilized for comprehensive regulatory oversight [9]. - Companies are required to establish robust internal management systems for carbon emissions data to ensure compliance and accuracy [9].

Group 1 - The carbon emissions trading market is expected to cover major high-emission industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and paper-making by 2027 [1][2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has initiated preparations for expanding the coverage of the carbon market and is compiling a comprehensive set of technical documents [1][2] - The carbon emissions trading market currently includes steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, with the types of greenhouse gases covered being CO2, CF4, and C2F6 [2] Group 2 - The allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries has been published, drawing on successful experiences from the power generation sector [4][5] - The allocation of quotas is linked to actual production levels, ensuring that companies with lower carbon emissions per unit of product have higher surplus quotas, thus creating a clear incentive for emissions reduction [4][5] - The focus is on direct emissions from production processes, excluding indirect emissions from purchased electricity and heat [5] Group 3 - The steel industry accounts for 15% of the national total carbon emissions, making it the highest-emitting sector in manufacturing [7] - In the first half of next year, pre-allocated quotas for 2025 will be distributed to steel, cement, and aluminum smelting companies, which must submit their greenhouse gas emission reports [7][8] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment emphasizes the importance of data quality in the carbon market, planning to enhance the monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system to ensure accurate emissions data [7][8]

Monetary Policy and Financing - As of the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.13 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The total social financing stock was 437.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [2] - The net cash injection in the first ten months amounted to 728.4 billion yuan [1] Company Financial Performance - Tencent Holdings reported third-quarter revenue of 192.87 billion yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 19% to 63.13 billion yuan [3] - JD Group's third-quarter revenue was 299.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9%, but net profit decreased to 5.3 billion yuan from 11.7 billion yuan in the previous year [4] - Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC achieved a net profit growth of 41.1% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with revenue of 49.51 billion yuan [5] Industry Trends - The memory chip industry is expected to see continued capital expenditure growth, although it may have limited impact on bit output growth in 2026 [6] - The launch of the first autumn holiday in China has led to a 7% increase in average ticket prices for popular domestic routes [6] Corporate Developments - Alibaba has secretly initiated the "Qianwen" project to develop a personal AI assistant, aiming to compete directly with ChatGPT [6] - Glencore and Hillhouse Capital plan to participate as cornerstone investors in the upcoming IPO of Chuangxin Industries in Hong Kong, indicating confidence in the aluminum sector [8] - Evergrande Group has been executed for a total of 3.19 billion yuan across multiple cases, highlighting ongoing financial distress [9] Stock Market Activity - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.73%, reaching a ten-year high, with significant gains in the lithium battery sector and consumer goods [24]

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China is transitioning from intensity control to total control during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a focus on enhancing green and low-carbon transformation in key industries [1][2][3] Group 1: Mandatory Carbon Market - The mandatory carbon market has expanded to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, which will enhance emission reduction responsibilities for these sectors [2] - By 2027, priority will be given to implementing total quota control for industries with relatively stable carbon emissions, ensuring effective compliance with national greenhouse gas emission control targets [2][3] - The carbon market has already reduced overall emission reduction costs in the power generation sector by approximately 35 billion yuan during the first two compliance cycles [3] Group 2: Voluntary Carbon Market - The voluntary carbon market has entered a critical development phase, with 31 projects registered and a total of 1.504 million tons of CCER traded, amounting to a transaction value of 270 million yuan [4][5] - The framework for the voluntary carbon market has been established across management systems, technical methods, and infrastructure, with a focus on enhancing the integrity and regulatory compliance of voluntary reduction projects [4][5] Group 3: Carbon Footprint Management - The average carbon footprint factor for electricity in China has decreased by 6.9% from 0.6205 kg CO2 equivalent per kWh in 2023 to 0.5777 kg CO2 equivalent per kWh in 2024, reflecting improvements in energy structure and technological innovation [6][7] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is committed to building a product carbon footprint management system, addressing key issues related to calculation and data availability [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the aluminum industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a tight supply-demand balance in the global electrolytic aluminum market, with domestic supply constraints leading to potential price increases in 2025 and 2026 [3][25]. - The domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to show resilience, driven by the recovery in the real estate sector and strong growth in the new energy vehicle market [2][3]. - The report anticipates a continued expansion of profit margins in the electrolytic aluminum industry due to declining raw material costs and rising aluminum prices [3][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Side: Capacity Ceiling and Low-Carbon Policies - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry is undergoing a supply-side reform that locks in a total capacity ceiling, shifting the focus from quantity to sustainable quality development [14][15]. - The emphasis on energy conservation and carbon reduction is becoming the main theme, with policies aimed at optimizing capacity layout and energy structure [19][20]. 2. Supply Side: Domestic Capacity Nearing Ceiling, Limited Overseas Increment - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is constrained by a capacity ceiling, with net new capacity expected to be only 20,000 tons in 2025 and 56,000 tons in 2026 [28][29]. - The report notes that overseas production increases, particularly from Southeast Asia, will have limited impact on the domestic market due to the "strong external, weak internal" price dynamic [25][26]. 3. Demand Side: Strong Domestic Demand and Export Advantages - Domestic consumption of electrolytic aluminum is projected to grow at rates of 2.7% and 2.1% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, supported by a recovering real estate market and robust demand from the new energy vehicle sector [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that China's aluminum processing capacity remains significantly advantageous in the global market, reinforcing demand stability [2][3]. 4. Cost: Downward Pressure on Costs, High Profit Era Expected to Continue - The average complete cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to range between 16,000 and 16,400 RMB per ton, with aluminum prices projected to rise to approximately 20,600 RMB per ton in 2025 and 21,500 RMB per ton in 2026 [3][21]. - The combination of declining costs and rising prices is expected to expand profit margins, establishing a high-profit environment as a norm [3][21]. 5. Supply-Demand Balance: Continued Tight Balance, Price Expectations to Rise - The report indicates that the tight balance in supply and demand will persist, with expectations of rising aluminum prices due to domestic supply rigidity [3][25]. - The anticipated implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in January 2026 is expected to further influence pricing dynamics in the industry [3][21]. 6. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong cost control capabilities and stable dividend returns, particularly those leading in low-carbon transitions, such as China Hongqiao, China Aluminum, and Nanshan Aluminum [3][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, aluminum prices strengthened both domestically and internationally, with SHFE aluminum rising 2.01% and LME aluminum rising 7.56% and hitting a new high for the year. Fundamentally, concerns about supply have been triggered by the shutdown or production cuts of overseas aluminum plants, and domestic inventories remain relatively low. Against the backdrop of the expected easing of the global trade situation and the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut, supply - side disturbances and the improvement of domestic export expectations may drive aluminum prices higher. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the support of domestic inventory changes for prices. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be between 20,800 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M aluminum is expected to be between 2,750 - 3,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of October, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the industry's monthly operating rate remaining stable. In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month. The domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.4% month - on - month [11][12]. - Inventory & Spot: At the end of October, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 605,000 tons, up 18,000 tons month - on - month; the bonded area inventory was 68,000 tons, down 19,000 tons month - on - month; the total inventory of aluminum rods was 153,000 tons, up 29,000 tons month - on - month; the LME global aluminum inventory was 554,000 tons, up 43,000 tons month - on - month, at a low level in the same period of previous years. The spot discount of domestic East China aluminum ingots to futures was 15 yuan/ton, and the LME market Cash/3M discount was 4.6 US dollars/ton [11][12]. - Imports and Exports: In September 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 247,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.5% and a year - on - year increase of 80.0%. In October, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6%. As the domestic import loss widens, the export expectation of aluminum products is expected to improve significantly [11][12]. - Demand: In October, the overall downstream demand for aluminum in China was stable with a slight decline, showing a differentiated trend. The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises gradually decreased from 62.5% at the beginning of the month to 62.2% at the end of the month, generally remaining at a relatively high level. From the middle to the end of the month, the industry transitioned from the peak season to the off - season, and the continuous rise in aluminum prices restricted downstream demand growth. It is expected that the subsequent operating rate will decline slowly or fluctuate within a narrow range [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: In October, SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly, rising 2.01% for the month, and LME aluminum rose 7.56%. As of November 7, SHFE aluminum reached a maximum of over 21,700 yuan/ton [20]. - Term Spread: In October, the spread between the first and third contracts of SHFE aluminum changed from a premium to a discount [25]. - Spot Basis: In October, the spot prices in South China and Central China were at a discount to futures for most of the time, while the price in East China changed from a premium to a discount in the middle of the month [28]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: In October, the spot price in East China strengthened relatively [31]. - LME Premium and Discount: In October, the LME aluminum Cash/3M premium and discount first rose and then fell [35]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: In October, the smelting profit of primary aluminum increased by 11.4% month - on - month compared with September, reaching a historical high [40]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic Aluminum: At the end of October, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 605,000 tons, up 18,000 tons month - on - month, and the inventory continued to fluctuate in early November. The bonded area inventory was 68,000 tons, down 19,000 tons month - on - month [46]. - Aluminum Rods: At the end of October, the total inventory of aluminum rods was 153,000 tons, up 29,000 tons month - on - month [51]. - LME Inventory: In September, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased [61]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite: In October, the prices of domestic and overseas bauxite remained stable [68]. - Alumina: In October, the domestic alumina price decreased by 103 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the import price decreased by 5 US dollars/ton [71]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In October, the price of anodes in the South increased by 70 yuan/ton compared with September, and the price of thermal coal increased by 70 yuan/ton month - on - month [75]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In October, the monthly output of alumina was 7.785 million tons, an increase of 39,000 tons compared with September and a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [81]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the industry's monthly operating rate remaining stable. In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month [84]. - Molten Aluminum Ratio: In October, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased month - on - month. The domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.4% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [87]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In October, the electrolytic aluminum output of each province increased compared with September [92]. 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Production: In September, China's aluminum product output was 5.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%; the cumulative output from January to September was 49.767 million tons, basically the same as the previous year. As of November 3, the daily delivery volume of aluminum ingots was 127,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease [96]. - Downstream Operating Rate: In September, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increased. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods increased month - on - month, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots also increased. In October, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys widened by 203 yuan/ton month - on - month [103][106][109]. - Terminal Demand: The production schedules of the three major white goods in November 2025 showed a decline. The current real - estate data was weak, automobile production and sales were acceptable, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules decreased slightly [113]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - Primary Aluminum: In September 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 247,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.5% and a year - on - year increase of 80.0%. In October, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened. In October, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6% [118][125]. - Recycled Aluminum: In September 2025, the imports of recycled aluminum were 155,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.7%. The imports from January to September were 1.501 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [125]. - Bauxite: In September 2025, China's bauxite imports were 15.881 million tons, with imported ore accounting for 74.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to September were 157.305 million tons [129]. - Alumina: In September 2025, China exported 246,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 36.7% and a year - on - year increase of 82.2%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to September were 1.999 million tons [129].