Core Points - China's new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aims for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from peak levels by 2035, with a focus on achieving even better results [1][2] - Non-fossil energy consumption is targeted to exceed 30% of total energy consumption, with wind and solar power capacity expected to reach over 360 million kilowatts, six times the 2020 level [1][2] - The new NDCs include qualitative goals such as making new energy vehicles the mainstream of new vehicle sales and establishing a nationwide carbon trading market covering major high-emission industries [2][3] Summary by Categories Emission Reduction Goals - The NDCs represent a significant shift from intensity control to total emission control, marking the first time China has set absolute reduction targets for all greenhouse gases across the entire economy [2][3] - The new targets reflect China's commitment to addressing climate change and provide a clear direction for the country's green and low-carbon transformation [2][3] Energy and Renewable Resources - China aims to increase the share of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption to over 30% and achieve a total installed capacity of wind and solar power that is six times that of 2020 [2][5] - The country has built the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, supplying over 80% of global photovoltaic components and 70% of wind power equipment [5] Carbon Trading and Market Development - China has established the largest carbon trading market globally, covering over 60% of national carbon emissions, with recent expansions to include industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum [5] - The carbon market's development is seen as a crucial step in enhancing the effectiveness of carbon emission management [5] International Cooperation and Climate Governance - The new NDCs are expected to boost international confidence in global climate governance and highlight China's leadership role in international climate action [4][7] - Achieving these goals will require a fair international environment, stable cooperation, and mutual trade relations, emphasizing the need for global collaboration in addressing climate change [7]

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Report - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal variety, including "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", etc. [8][11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed restarts interest rate cuts, investors have a positive macro - outlook. There is a linkage between the stock and futures markets of non - ferrous metals, with copper leading the rise among base metals. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions and stock - futures linkage speculation lead to a pulse rise in some varieties, but there is a risk of price decline after a rapid increase. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin will push up base metal prices [1]. - For different metal varieties, the supply - side contraction logic of copper continues to drive up prices; the fundamentals of alumina are weak with price pressure; aluminum prices are boosted by macro - sentiment; aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost; zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation; lead prices also rebound with non - ferrous metals with a loosening supply - demand outlook; nickel prices fluctuate widely due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas; stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices; tin prices oscillate at a high level due to continuous supply disruptions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety (According to the Catalog) Copper - **Viewpoint**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices maintain a strong trend. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has production disruptions, and there are also issues such as the US government shutdown, domestic production changes, and policy - induced production cuts in the recycled copper market. The supply is expected to decrease, while the demand has resilience, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The production of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to be severely affected in 2026, with a 35% drop in annual output; the US government shutdown affects economic data release; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year; the spot price of electrolytic copper had a certain premium; the copper inventory increased; the "770 - document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; the labor union of Los Pelambres copper mine rejected the contract, increasing the strike risk [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US government shutdown affects data release. On the supply side, mine production disruptions, low processing fees, and policy - induced production cuts lead to a supply reduction expectation. On the demand side, the peak season is approaching, and downstream stocking demand may increase. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may remain strong [10]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price movement is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][13]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina changed, with a certain decline in domestic prices; the estimated supply in September exceeded demand by about 430,000 tons; the price of a tender by an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang decreased; the alumina warehouse receipts increased [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment in the non - ferrous sector amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, although some smelters are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is still high, and the strong inventory accumulation trend continues. The price is under pressure, but the limited decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea - related disturbances may affect prices [12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices oscillate strongly. In the short term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased; some aluminum production projects were completed or planned to be put into production [13]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term interest rate cut boosts macro - expectations. On the supply side, replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity is high. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the order outlook improves. The post - holiday demand and inventory trends need to be observed [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the price oscillates. In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate within a range [14][15]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 9, the price of ADC12 increased, and the price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed; the registered warehouse receipts increased; the EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports; the growth rate of the auto market in September slowed down [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost reduction space is limited. On the supply side, the operating rate is increasing, and the implementation of policies needs to be observed. On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement, but the peak - season effect needs to be verified. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals despite inventory accumulation. In the short term, they may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward risk [16][17]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price of zinc has a certain discount; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; a mine in Australia had a seismic event, delaying high - grade zinc ore mining [16]. - **Main Logic**: The non - ferrous sector rebounds with the rise of copper prices. The macro - environment is slightly negative. The short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters have strong production willingness. The demand is in the off - peak to peak transition period, and the overall demand outlook is average. The fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc support short - term prices [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand loosening expectation remains unchanged, and lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals, showing an oscillating trend [17][20]. - **Information Analysis**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries and the price difference between primary and recycled lead remained stable; the price of lead ingots was stable, and the spot premium decreased; the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased; lead smelters had production cuts in September, and downstream enterprises stocked up before the holiday [17][19]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the premium and price difference are stable; on the supply side, the profit of recycled lead smelters improves, and the production increases; on the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories is high. After the battery factory's stocking is completed, the demand may decline, and the supply may loosen [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated progress of RKAB quotas, nickel prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, they oscillate widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and see [20][24]. - **Information Analysis**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory was partially exported; Antam and CATL signed cooperation agreements; the application process of the 2026 RKAB quota was delayed; a nickel - iron plant in Brazil increased its production capacity [20][22]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are slightly weak. The mine end is relatively stable, but the intermediate product output recovers, and the nickel salt price weakens slightly. The inventory accumulates, and the price pressure is significant. Short - term trading is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Stainless steel prices rise with the strengthening of nickel prices and are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. - **Information Analysis**: The futures warehouse receipts of stainless steel decreased; the spot price had a certain premium; the stainless steel production in September increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron are stable. The production increase in September is driven by price and season. The supply - demand imbalance has been alleviated, and the future price trend depends on inventory and cost changes [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Due to continuous supply disruptions, tin prices oscillate at a high level. The supply - side tightness provides strong support for prices, and they are expected to oscillate [26]. - **Information Analysis**: The inventory and trading volume of tin changed; the spot price increased; Indonesia took measures to regulate the tin market, affecting supply [26]. - **Main Logic**: During the National Day, there were continuous supply disruptions in the tin market, including Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mines and quota system adjustments. The supply in key areas such as the Wa State and Indonesia is restricted, and the supply - side tightness supports prices [26].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks a significant step towards the comprehensive deepening and acceleration of the national carbon market, providing direction for institutional innovation and operational optimization, which is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality goals and enhancing China's carbon governance system [1] Group 1: Carbon Market Structure - The national carbon market consists of a mandatory carbon trading market and a voluntary emission reduction market, which are interconnected through quota clearing and offset mechanisms, each focusing on different aspects while complementing each other [2] - The carbon pricing mechanism is central to the carbon trading market policy, with quota allocation being a key factor influencing carbon pricing [2] Group 2: Quota Allocation and Management - Current quota allocation primarily uses a free distribution method based on carbon emission intensity and actual production volume, avoiding negative impacts on economic growth [2] - As more emission entities are included in the carbon market, the focus will gradually shift from controlling carbon intensity to controlling total carbon emissions, transitioning from free allocation to a mixed approach of "free + paid" allocation [2] Group 3: Monitoring and Verification - A robust monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system is essential for accurately determining historical carbon emissions and their intensity, which supports the effective functioning of the carbon market [3] - Enhancing data quality through comprehensive regulation and automated monitoring is crucial for achieving national emission reduction targets [3] Group 4: Low-Carbon Transition Strategies - Companies can achieve green and low-carbon transformation through energy-saving renovations and clean energy alternatives, fostering a virtuous cycle of emission reduction, revenue generation, and reinvestment in research and development [4] - The development of low-carbon industry clusters, such as clean energy and carbon consulting, can drive industrial structure upgrades and promote economic transition towards a green high-end model [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is developing a quota allocation plan for the national carbon emissions trading market for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries for the years 2024 and 2025, considering various factors such as economic development and historical emissions [1][2] Group 1: Quota Allocation Plan - The quota allocation plan is currently in the consultation phase, with input being sought from relevant parties [1] - The plan aims to align with national greenhouse gas emission control targets and will consider factors like industry development stages and market needs [2] - The allocation will be based on a gradual approach, focusing on major emitting enterprises and processes, with free allocation of quotas for 2024 and 2025 based on carbon emissions per unit output [2][5] Group 2: Industry Emissions and Market Dynamics - The steel industry accounts for 15% of the national carbon emissions, making it the highest-emitting sector in manufacturing [4] - The plan encourages a competitive market environment, rewarding companies with lower carbon emissions and promoting the adoption of green technologies [4] - The allocation method will differ by industry: steel will be based on enterprises, cement on clinker production lines, and aluminum on electrolysis processes, covering direct emissions only [5] Group 3: Market Performance and Statistics - As of September 2025, China's carbon emissions trading market has become the largest globally, covering over 60% of national emissions, with a cumulative trading volume of 714 million tons and a total transaction value of 48.961 billion yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - The allocation of carbon emission quotas for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries in the national carbon trading market for 2024 and 2025 is being developed, linking the quota amount to actual production levels in 2025 [1][5] Group 1: Quota Allocation Plan - The "Quota Plan" considers factors such as national greenhouse gas emission control targets, economic and social development, industry development stages, historical emission data, market regulation needs, technological innovation, and carbon emission data management to scientifically formulate the total quota and distribution plan [2] - The quota distribution will be implemented gradually, focusing on major emitting enterprises and processes, with free allocation based on carbon emissions per unit of output for 2024 and 2025 [2][5] Group 2: Industry Emission Characteristics - The steel industry accounts for 15% of the national total carbon emissions, making it the highest-emitting sector in manufacturing [4] - The allocation of quotas will be based on specific industry characteristics: steel based on enterprises, cement based on clinker production lines, and aluminum smelting based on aluminum electrolysis processes [5] Group 3: Market Environment and Management - The plan aims to create a fair, competitive, and open market environment, encouraging companies to improve carbon emission management and adopt green low-carbon technologies [4] - The carbon market has been established as the largest globally, covering over 60% of national carbon emissions, with a cumulative transaction volume of 714 million tons and a transaction value of 48.961 billion yuan as of September 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has included the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries in the national carbon emissions trading market management, aiming to enhance carbon reduction efforts and achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1][3]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The allocation plan for carbon emission quotas is based on national greenhouse gas emission control targets and considers various factors such as economic development, industry development stages, historical emissions, and technological innovation [3][4]. - The quota distribution will be conducted gradually, focusing on major emitting enterprises and processes, with free allocation based on carbon emissions per unit of output for the years 2024 and 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Quota Distribution Scope - The plan applies to key emission units in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries for the years 2024 and 2025, excluding newly established units and those that have ceased operations before quota determination [5]. - The greenhouse gases covered include CO2 for steel and cement, and CO2, CF4, and C2F6 for aluminum smelting, with specific calculations for global warming potential [5]. Group 3: Quota Calculation Method - For 2024, the quotas for key emission units will equal their verified actual carbon emissions, while specific conditions apply for the cement industry in 2025 [6][7]. - The calculation method for quotas involves determining the carbon emissions of steel enterprises, cement production lines, and aluminum electrolysis processes, with a focus on balancing industry profits and losses [8][9]. Group 4: Quota Issuance - The pre-allocation of quotas for 2025 will be based on 70% of the verified emissions from the previous year, with specific procedures for reporting and issuing quotas to key emission units [22][23]. - The quota issuance will be managed by provincial ecological environment authorities, with adjustments made based on compliance and verification results [25][26]. Group 5: Quota Compliance - Key emission units must clear their quotas by December 31 each year based on their verified emissions, with provisions for using certified voluntary emission reductions (CCER) to offset their obligations [27][28]. - The compliance process includes support for units facing difficulties in purchasing quotas, ensuring they can meet their obligations [28].

Core Viewpoint - The steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries have been included in the national carbon emissions trading market management, with a focus on quota allocation for 2024 and 2025 [1] Group 1: Industry Inclusion and Regulation - The inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries in the carbon emissions trading market has been approved by the State Council [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has prepared a draft for public consultation regarding the total quota and allocation plan for these industries for the years 2024 and 2025 [1] Group 2: Quota Allocation Strategy - The quota allocation will follow a gradual approach, focusing on major emitting enterprises and processes [1] - Quotas for 2024 and 2025 will be allocated for free, based on carbon emissions per unit of output, similar to the method used in the power generation sector [1] Group 3: Market Environment and Policy Direction - The policy aims to create a fair, competitive, and open market environment, emphasizing the importance of market mechanisms in resource allocation [1] - The guiding principle is to "incentivize the advanced and spur the laggards," where lower carbon emissions per unit output will result in higher quota surplus rates [1] - The initiative encourages enterprises to enhance carbon emissions management and adopt green low-carbon technologies, including energy efficiency improvements and alternative raw materials [1]

Core Viewpoint - China has established the world's largest carbon emissions trading market, which is now operating steadily, covering over 60% of the country's carbon emissions, and is entering a new phase of development [1][2]. Market Development - The national carbon emissions trading market has seen steady progress since its pilot phase began in 2011, with the official launch occurring in 2017, following a phased approach [1][3]. - The cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market reached nearly 700 million tons by the end of August [1]. Policy Framework - The issuance of the "Opinions" document aims to enhance the effectiveness, vitality, and international influence of the national carbon market, while also coordinating with local pilot markets [2][3]. - Key tasks include aligning the national carbon market with the national carbon emission control measures, introducing paid allocation of quotas, and strengthening management of registration and trading institutions [2]. Market Structure - The national carbon market consists of a mandatory carbon market and a voluntary carbon market, which operate independently but complement each other [3][5]. - The mandatory market is expected to control over 70% of national carbon emissions, while the voluntary market can help reduce emissions not covered by the mandatory market [3]. Impact on Enterprises - The carbon market creates a consensus among enterprises that "carbon emissions have costs, and carbon reduction has benefits," allowing companies to manage their emissions more effectively [5][6]. - Companies can purchase carbon allowances at lower prices than their own reduction costs, minimizing operational impacts while incentivizing additional reductions when it is economically beneficial [5]. Regulatory Framework - A multi-level and relatively complete regulatory system for the carbon market has begun to take shape, with over 30 regulations and technical standards established [6][7]. - The upcoming "Interim Regulations on Carbon Emission Trading" will clarify responsibilities for companies regarding carbon emissions reporting and compliance [6]. Quota Management - The "Opinions" propose a gradual shift from intensity control to total volume control, prioritizing industries with stable carbon emissions for quota management by 2027 [7]. - Setting total quotas requires careful consideration of national carbon reduction goals and future economic trends [7]. Emission Accounting - Improving the carbon emission accounting system involves ensuring data quality from key emitters and third-party verification agencies, optimizing accounting methods, and enhancing measurement techniques [7][8]. Pricing Mechanism - Factors influencing carbon pricing include national carbon reduction targets and the development of low-carbon technologies [8]. - The pricing mechanism should reflect market dynamics while ensuring effective government regulation through quota allocation and market rules [8].

Core Viewpoints - Aluminum oxide futures are experiencing downward pressure due to high operational capacity and accumulating inventories, leading to a supply surplus [1][2] - The market is expected to maintain low-level fluctuations influenced by weak demand and high supply [1][2] - Short-term strategies suggest a wait-and-see approach, monitoring macroeconomic sentiments and supply-side policies [2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The operational capacity for aluminum oxide is at a historical high, nearing 98 million tons per year, contributing to a clear supply surplus [1] - Social and factory inventories are continuously accumulating, indicating a persistent oversupply situation [1] - Downstream electrolytic aluminum plants are maintaining high operating rates due to strong profits, but overall demand is underperforming expectations [1] Group 2: Price Outlook - The price of aluminum oxide is currently reported at 2922.0 yuan, with a slight decline of 0.17% [1] - Future price movements may be constrained by cost support, limiting the extent of potential declines [1] - The market is likely to remain under pressure from inventory accumulation, supply expansion, and weak demand, with potential price stabilization if production cuts are triggered by cost line breaches [1][2] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Companies are advised to adopt a cautious stance in the short term, awaiting further developments in macroeconomic conditions and supply-side policies [2] - The reference operational range for the main contract AO2601 is suggested to be between 2800-3100 yuan per ton [2] - Continuous monitoring of geopolitical events, particularly in Guinea, and U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy is recommended as they may impact market dynamics [2]

Core Points - China announced a new round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) at the UN Climate Change Summit, aiming for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, with non-fossil energy consumption exceeding 30% of total energy consumption [1][3] - The national carbon market has been operational for over four years, covering more than 2,200 key emission units in the power sector, making it the largest carbon market globally [3][4] - The carbon market's trading volume reached nearly 700 million tons with a transaction value of approximately 48 billion RMB by the end of August 2024, marking a record high since its inception [4][6] Carbon Market Development - The carbon market has seen significant growth, with a 44% increase in daily average transaction volume in 2024 compared to the previous compliance cycle, and a total transaction value of 18 billion RMB [6][4] - The market aims to expand its coverage to include major industrial sectors by 2027, with a focus on implementing total quota control for stable emission sectors [6][7] - New industries, including steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, will be included in the carbon market by 2025, increasing the controlled greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 3 billion tons [10][9] Future Expectations - The Chinese government plans to enhance the carbon market's mechanisms and expand its coverage to additional sectors such as aviation, petrochemicals, and paper manufacturing [9][10] - There is an emphasis on international cooperation and the establishment of cross-border carbon trading systems, with expectations for the upcoming COP30 to facilitate global climate governance [13][15] - The carbon market is seen as a critical tool for achieving carbon neutrality and is expected to play a significant role in the global carbon pricing landscape [6][14]