Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the strengthening US dollar and the weakening US Treasury bonds is attributed to robust employment and inflation data, leading to a delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US added an average of 155,000 non-farm jobs over the past three months, with a low unemployment rate [1]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April decreased to 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI fell to 2.8% year-on-year [1]. - The Federal Reserve's recent meetings indicate a strong resilience in the US economy, with no immediate need for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve officials express that the current moderately restrictive policy rate is well-positioned to respond to economic changes [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may impact future inflation paths, but the labor market remains strong [2]. - The delay in interest rate cuts is putting pressure on US Treasury bonds [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Debt Supply - The introduction of the "Big, Beautiful Bill" is expected to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit, potentially leading to increased supply pressure on Treasury bonds [2]. - The ongoing supply pressure from rising budget deficits may further impact the bond market [2]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Tariff Impact - The current tariff policies may lead to a supply shock in the US, as the return of manufacturing is unlikely in the short term [3]. - The tightening of immigration policies could further increase service prices, contributing to inflation expectations [3]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - Short-term trading factors, such as the recovery of major stock indices, are negatively impacting the US bond market [4]. - The increase in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) supply and corporate bond issuance is contributing to rising bond yields [4]. - The current market dynamics suggest that a recovery in Treasury bond prices may require signals of economic weakness or earlier-than-expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4].

Group 1 - Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor stated that Iran is willing to commit to never developing nuclear weapons in exchange for the U.S. lifting sanctions, leading to a drop of over 3% in oil prices [1] - WTI crude oil fell over 3% to $60.60 per barrel, while Brent crude oil also dropped over 3% to $63.97 per barrel [2] - The geopolitical situation is easing, and high U.S. Treasury yields are pressuring commodities, causing gold, silver, copper, and oil to decline [5] Group 2 - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.5%, Germany's DAX down 0.4%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.5% [9] - The Indian stock market maintained its upward trend after President Trump mentioned India's proposal to eliminate tariffs on U.S. goods [9] - The Japanese opposition party suggested using long-term U.S. Treasury holdings and importing U.S.-made Japanese cars as negotiation leverage in trade talks with Washington [12]

Group 1: Currency Exchange and Economic Indicators - The USD/CAD exchange rate fell to around 1.3950 due to a weakening dollar, with upcoming US retail sales data and PPI being focal points [1] - In March 2025, the total value of Canadian building permits decreased by 4.1% month-on-month to CAD 12.88 billion (approximately USD 9.24 billion), marking the largest decline since October of the previous year and exceeding economists' expectations of a 1.2% drop [1] - Year-on-year, the total value of building permits in March increased by 15.0%, with non-residential permits down 14.5% to CAD 4.23 billion, primarily affected by declines in Ontario and British Columbia [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices and Market Sentiment - The upward momentum of the Canadian dollar was reversed due to falling commodity prices, which weakened its strength [2] - Oil prices dropped by 1%, copper prices fell by 0.25%, and gold faced pressure due to weak US inflation data and easing trade tensions [3] - The lack of significant economic data from Canada and the US may continue to anchor the Canadian dollar at lower trend levels [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Key support levels for the Canadian dollar are at the psychological level of 1.3900, the 10-day moving average at 1.3883, and the May 8 low at 1.3814 [5] - Resistance levels are identified at the Wednesday high of 1.3940, the upper Bollinger Band at 1.3963, and the 200-day moving average at 1.4019 [6] - A potential double bottom pattern is forming, but a breakthrough above 1.4015 is needed to confirm an upward trend towards the 1.4160-1.4200 range [6] - If the exchange rate falls below the 1.3900 support, particularly below the critical level of 1.3750, it may accelerate downward to the 1.3650-1.3700 range [7]

此外，美元与美债收益率多年来走势相关性非常强，但近期也出现了割裂。 分析认为，这些迹象表明，美股反弹可能只是一场表面的狂欢，美债收益率异常上涨以及与美元走势的背离，指向美国结构性财政问题，或暗示 美元更深层次崩溃风险。随着美国政府预计发行超2万亿美元国债，缺乏买家的局面可能迫使美联储重启资产负债表扩张。 股市狂欢，但债市却在讲述一个不同的故事 美国通胀降温却未能安抚债市，美债收益率顽固上升。 周二，美国市场上演了令人困惑的一幕：美股反弹，科技股继续飙升，而美债收益率却在通胀数放缓的情况下反常走高，美元进一步走软。 中美关税暂缓叠加美国通胀降温，引发美股大涨，然而债市与美元的表现却透露出市场深层的忧虑。 数据显示，美国4月消费者价格指数同比增长2.3%，低于经济学家预期的2.4%，为自2021年2月以来最低水平。这本应是债券市场的利好消息，但 10年期美债收益率反而上升2.4个基点至4.481%。 Pomboy警告，美联储最终可能别无选择，只能重新扩大资产负债表。"美联储是唯一明显的候选人来吸收所有这些国债发行，"她说道，并补充说 尽管信贷价差没有反应，但信贷压力正在增加。 "这是一个结构性财政问题，"她总结道 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The interbank foreign exchange market shows fluctuations in the RMB exchange rates against various currencies, indicating a mixed trend in currency valuation as of May 14, 2025 [1]. Exchange Rate Changes - USD/RMB is reported at 7.1956, down by 35 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB against the USD [1] - EUR/RMB is reported at 8.0358, up by 341 points, reflecting a depreciation of the RMB against the Euro [1] - HKD/RMB is reported at 0.92286, down by 8.8 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB against the HKD [1] - GBP/RMB is reported at 9.5533, up by 486 points, reflecting a depreciation of the RMB against the GBP [1] - AUD/RMB is reported at 4.6468, up by 488 points, indicating a depreciation of the RMB against the AUD [1] - CAD/RMB is reported at 5.1537, down by 86 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB against the CAD [1] - 100 JPY/RMB is reported at 4.8700, up by 67 points, reflecting a depreciation of the RMB against the JPY [1] - RMB/RUB is reported at 11.1094, down by 1331 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB against the RUB [1] - NZD/RMB is reported at 4.2631, up by 361 points, reflecting a depreciation of the RMB against the NZD [1] - RMB/MYR is reported at 0.6011, up by 32.3 points, indicating a depreciation of the RMB against the MYR [1] - CHF/RMB is reported at 8.5570, up by 215 points, reflecting a depreciation of the RMB against the CHF [1] - SGD/RMB is reported at 5.5225, down by 24 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB against the SGD [1]

Group 1 - The Canadian labor market data shows a faster-than-expected increase in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, impacting the USD/CAD exchange rate [1] - The USD/CAD pair is attempting to maintain its position around 1.3940, supported by progress in US-China trade negotiations held in Switzerland [1] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen described the two-day talks with Chinese officials in Geneva as productive, with expectations for more details to be released [1] Group 2 - Despite ongoing recession concerns, recent data suggests that the US economy is more likely to experience a slowdown rather than a full contraction, with no signs of accelerating inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about potential stagflation, with warnings from President Michael Barr about tariff increases disrupting supply chains [1] - Technical indicators such as MACD and CCI suggest short-term momentum accumulation for the USD/CAD exchange rate, although there may be a risk of a pullback due to the CCI entering the overbought territory [2]

Group 1 - The core driver of the foreign exchange market this week is the substantial progress in US-China trade negotiations [1] - High-level talks between the US and China took place in Geneva, resulting in an "important consensus" and the establishment of a trade consultation mechanism [1] - President Trump indicated a potential reduction of tariffs on China from a maximum of 145% to 80%, reflecting a compromise stance [1] Group 2 - The market is focused on key economic data from the US, including April CPI, PPI, retail sales, initial jobless claims, and the May Michigan consumer sentiment index, which will guide future Federal Reserve monetary policy [1] - The Federal Reserve has recently signaled a hawkish stance, but there remains a divergence in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [1] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a prudent monetary policy, supporting economic growth through tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts [1] Group 3 - The US dollar index (DXY) has recovered above the 100 mark for the first time since early April, with short-term resistance at 102 and support around 100.20 [2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.22 and 7.27, reflecting a stable outlook for the Chinese yuan [2] - The USD/JPY pair has seen an increase due to widening interest rate differentials and reduced risk aversion, with a focus on the 145.0-146.0 range for support and resistance [2] Group 4 - The market sentiment has improved due to the US-UK trade agreement and the US-China joint statement, but economic data and central bank policies remain key variables influencing the market [4] - Investors should closely monitor the details of the trade negotiations and US inflation and consumption data to adjust trading strategies accordingly [4] - The stability of the Chinese yuan is supported by both growth policies and eased trade tensions, presenting potential opportunities for medium to long-term investments [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market may be on the verge of a reversal due to record short positions in the US dollar, with potential for a significant rebound if positive news arises from trade negotiations [1] - Speculators have reached the highest net short position against the dollar since the end of 2020, indicating a comprehensive bearish sentiment towards the dollar across both developed and emerging market currencies [1] - Technical analysts warn that such extreme market positioning could trigger a chain reaction if positive news forces short positions to cover, leading to a potential rebound in the dollar [1] Group 2 - A significant rebound in the dollar would have profound implications for global markets, particularly impacting emerging market currencies and commodities, with gold likely facing notable corrections [2] - Gold's high return/risk ratio makes it susceptible to cyclical declines, especially in the context of a strong dollar rebound [2]

Report Overview - The report is a macro team report from the research center, titled "Large Asset Morning Report", dated May 9, 2025, presenting global asset market performance, stock index futures trading data, and treasury bond futures trading data [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On May 8, 2025, the 10-year treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.380, 4.545, 3.239 respectively. The latest changes were 0.109, 0.087, 0.045; weekly changes were 0.170, 0.037, 0.003; monthly changes were 0.194, -0.069, -0.158; annual changes were -0.325, 0.184, 0.112 [2] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On May 8, 2025, the 2-year treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.780, 3.921, 1.769 respectively. The latest changes were 0.180, 0.124, 0.059; weekly changes were 0.010, 0.062, 0.030; monthly changes were -0.030, -0.069, -0.005; annual changes were -1.080, -0.550, -1.239 [2] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Market Currencies - On May 8, 2025, the dollar exchange rates against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, etc. were 5.663, - , 18.201 respectively. The latest changes were -1.43%, - , -0.35%; weekly changes were 0.14%, - , -1.75%; monthly changes were -4.25%, - , -7.42%; annual changes were 9.77%, - , -4.37% [2] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On May 8, 2025, the closing prices of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, etc. were 5663.940, 41368.450, 17928.140 respectively. The latest changes were 0.58%, 0.62%, 1.07%; weekly changes were 2.45%, 2.84%, 3.24%; monthly changes were 11.89%, 8.96%, 14.90%; annual changes were 12.19%, 8.62%, 14.84% [2] Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes in the US investment-grade credit bond index, eurozone investment-grade credit bond index, and emerging market investment-grade credit bond index were -0.40%, -0.07%, -0.23% respectively; weekly changes were -0.88%, -0.04%, -0.38%; monthly changes were 0.28%, 1.33%, 0.22%; annual changes were 7.02%, 6.35%, 7.53% [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A-shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3352.00, 3852.90, 2679.51 respectively, with changes of 0.28%, 0.56%, 0.33% [3] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 12.45, 10.81, 29.04 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.04, 0.00, 0.17 [3] Risk Premium - The risk premiums of the S&P 500 and German DAX (1/PE - 10-year interest rate) were -0.25, 2.80 respectively, with环比 changes of -0.13, -0.12 [3] Fund Flows - The latest values of A-shares, the main board, and the GEM were 178.56, 85.42, 96.57 respectively [3] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 12933.77, 2469.87, 634.09 respectively, with环比 changes of -1749.40, -390.24, -172.46 [3] Basis - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were -36.90, -14.71, -113.81 respectively, with amplitudes of -0.96%, -0.55%, -1.97% [3] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 109.060, 106.180, 109.215, 106.515 respectively, with changes of -0.18%, -0.06%, -0.18%, -0.04% [4] - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR-3M were 1.5757%, 1.6477%, 1.7200% respectively, with daily changes of -13.00, -6.00, -2.00 [4]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has surged to over 65 cents against the US dollar, marking a five-month high and the first time since early December last year [2] - The recent Australian election resulted in a significant victory for Albanese's Labor Party, securing 87 parliamentary seats and indicating strong public trust in the party [3][4] - The election outcome signals the end of political uncertainty in Australia, providing policy support for the AUD [5] Group 2 - Economic data supports the strength of the AUD, with the TD-MI inflation index rising 0.6% month-on-month in April, marking the second consecutive month of increase [7] - The annual inflation index increased to 3.3%, up from 2.8% previously [8] - The Judo Bank composite PMI for April stood at 51.0, indicating economic expansion for the seventh consecutive month [9] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have created market volatility, but recent indications of trade negotiations have improved market sentiment [11][14] - Any positive developments in US-China trade relations are likely to bolster the AUD due to Australia's close trade ties with China [17][22] - China's recent economic stimulus measures, including a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, are expected to enhance demand for Australian exports, further supporting the AUD [19][20] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates without changes reflects growing economic risks in the US, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar [23][26] - Concerns over the US economic outlook and potential political issues could trigger a sell-off of the US dollar, making the AUD more attractive to investors [28][30] - The strong Australian consumer inflation data has led to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but it also supports the AUD by reducing expectations for aggressive rate cuts [31][32] Group 5 - The political stability and economic recovery in Australia, combined with supportive external factors, suggest a positive outlook for the AUD [33][34] - The AUD is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by optimism regarding US-China trade relations and increased demand from China for Australian commodities [36][37]