美债近日又突破一个里程碑，30.20万亿美元。要知道2018时这个数字还是15万亿美元，7年时间翻了一 倍。其中包含了由全球投资者持有的各种美国国债，若加上政府内部债务，联邦总负债已达38.40万亿 美元， 逼近41.10万亿美元的法定债务上限。 算下来，年支付利息高达1.2万亿美元，相当于新西兰一年的GDP。 三是，外资"口嫌体正直"，外资嘴上看空，但行动上确不断增持美债，比起日债和欧洲，美债显然更具 有吸引力。 2026年，怎么看？ 目前民调显示，选民最不满的是 "支付困境"——物价与收入之间的鸿沟。为挽救支持率，白宫的政策 工具箱已经打开。若民意回升，美联储可能温和降息(如75个基点)，财政以落实减税为主。 债务持续飙升的根源在于长期的收支失衡。美国政府支出与收入之间的缺口持续存在，这是过去二十年 债务不断加剧的原因。而在新冠疫情后情况更趋恶化，因为大量债务是在更高的利率水平下借入的。 IMF警告，美国债务占GDP的比重已达125%，远超对发达经济体建议的100%门槛。IMF预测，到2030 年，将飙升至143.4%，甚至超过意大利和希腊。 但戏剧性的是，美债规模创纪录的同时，回报却也相当丰厚。 这里原 ...

Group 1 - In November, the bond market experienced a short-term bottoming and recovery process, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.80% and ending at 1.84%, reaching a high of 1.87% in early December [3][57] - The risk appetite for the bond market decreased significantly as the stock market entered a consolidation phase, leading to a balance of bullish and bearish forces in the bond market [3][57] - The uncertainty surrounding the delayed implementation of new fund sales regulations has become a reason for institutions to seek hedging [3][57] Group 2 - The seasonal downward trend in December may weaken this year, as past five years' data shows that long-term rates typically decline, driven by expectations of "loose monetary policy" and year-end performance needs [4][54] - The bond market in December 2025 may face challenges due to the central bank's hawkish stance, limited performance improvement from institutions, and ample supply in the primary market at the beginning of the next year [4][54][35] - The characteristics of year-end rate declines may weaken marginally, with the trend still needing to wait for adjustments and corrections [4][35] Group 3 - Attention should be paid to marginal changes in the fundamentals, as the market has formed new trading habits since 2025, where data that does not meet expectations may be selectively ignored [5][55] - Inflation changes could pose short-term risks to the bond market, with November CPI expected to rise to around 0.6% due to food prices and a low base effect [5][55][36] - The demand side showed signs of recovery in November, with state-owned and policy banks net buying only 55 million yuan in bills, significantly lower than the same period in 2023-2024 [5][55][39] Group 4 - The market may return to a high volatility state in mid to late December, where it is essential to avoid net value adjustments caused by fluctuating interest rates and seize potential profit opportunities from market volatility [6][41] - The current yield curve is relatively steep, suggesting ample room for flattening, and a barbell strategy may be a better response tool [6][41][56] - For defensive positions, stable valuation or high coupon yield options should be considered, while the 5-year government bonds offer good value after the institutional profit-taking in late November [6][56]

依据《上海证券交易所公司债券上市规则》等规定，上交所同意北京市国有资产经营有限责任公司2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行科技创新公司债券（第六期）（品种一）于2025年12月9日起在上交所上 市，并采取匹配成交、点击成交、询价成交、竞买成交、协商成交交易方式。该债券证券简称为"京资 K13"，证券代码为"244364"。根据中国结算规则，可参与质押式回购。 12月8日，上交所发布关于北京市国有资产经营有限责任公司2025年面向专业投资者公开发行科技创新 公司债券（第六期）（品种一）上市的公告。 来源：市场资讯 ...

依据《上海证券交易所公司债券上市规则》等规定，上交所同意漳州市九龙江集团有限公司2025年面向 专业投资者公开发行可续期公司债券（第二期）（品种二）于2025年12月9日起在上交所上市，并采取 匹配成交、点击成交、询价成交、竞买成交、协商成交交易方式。该债券证券简称为"25漳九Y4"，证 券代码为"244336"。根据中国结算规则，可参与质押式回购。 来源：市场资讯 12月8日，上交所发布关于漳州市九龙江集团有限公司2025年面向专业投资者公开发行可续期公司债券 （第二期）（品种二）上市的公告。 ...

2025年临近尾声，2026年大类资产配置提上日程。2026年，A股市场将呈现怎样的走势？哪类资产性价比更高？该如何构建组合以把握机会、抵御潜在风 险？ 国泰基金曾辉：国内A股可能明年上半年继续震荡，下半年在经济复苏预期的推动下再上一个台阶。 诺德基金郑源：在香港上市的内地企业股价或将会同时受益于国内经济上行、全球流动性宽松，以及估值优势，值得关注。 平安基金吴心洋：展望2026年，对国内权益、海外权益、黄金等商品、美债均偏乐观，国内债市预计震荡为主。 嘉实基金赵迁：2026年最大的不确定性因素来自海外AI叙事的持续性和通胀背景下的美联储决策。 华商基金孙志远：2026年更倾向于配置中国的权益资产，尤其是与价格相关度高的板块。 为此，中国基金报记者采访了东方红资产管理董事总经理、多元投资部总经理、基金经理邓炯鹏，国泰基金多资产配置部负责人曾辉，诺德基金FOF投资 总监郑源，华商基金资产配置部总经理、华商安远稳进一年持有混合（FOF）基金经理孙志远，嘉实基金FOF基金经理赵迁，平安基金FOF投资部基金经 理吴心洋等六位公募FOF基金经理，共同研判2026年的投资脉络和市场机会。 东方红资产管理邓炯鹏：2026年 ...

【导读】 " 专业买手 " 把脉 2026 年大类资产配置：宏观经济平稳上行，明年 A 股或再上 新台阶 中国基金报记者 李树超 张玲 曹雯璟 2025 年临近尾声， 2026 年大类资产配置提上日程。 2026 年， A 股市场将呈现怎样的走 势？哪类资产性价比更高？该如何构建组合以把握机会、抵御潜在风险？ 为此，中国基金报记者采访了东方红资产管理董事总经理、多元投资部总经理、基金经理邓 炯鹏，国泰基金多资产配置部负责人曾辉，诺德基金 FOF 投资总监郑源，华商基金资产配置 部总经理、华商安远稳进一年持有混合（ FOF ）基金经理孙志远，嘉实基金 FOF 基金经理 赵迁，平安基金 FOF 投资部基金经理吴心洋等六位公募 FOF 基金经理，共同研判 2026 年 的投资脉络和市场机会。 东 方 红 资 产 管 理 邓 炯 鹏： 2 0 2 6 年 作 为 " 十 五 五 " 起 步 年 ， 预 计 政 策 上 将 延 续 积 极 发 力 状 态 。 国泰基金曾辉： 国内 A 股可能明年上半年继续震荡，下半年在经济复苏预期的推动下再上一 个台阶。 诺德基金郑源： 在香港上市的内地企业股价或将会同时受益于国内经济 ...

2025 年债券市场呈现收益率曲线低位徘徊、横盘时间长、波动区间收 窄但波动率偏高的特征，极端定价现象明显，收益率波动区间仅约 31BP，但标准差较高。 2025 年价格驱动逻辑包括对基本面弱修复定价钝化，对向上修复定价 敏感；对外生冲击定价更快，学习效应更强；资产荒逻辑松动和股债跷 跷板效应延续时间拉长，股市与债市相关性增强。 预计 2026 年通胀温和回升，PPI 同比可能收窄至-1%，CPI 同比预计在 0.4%左右，受益于反内卷政策、重点行业供给优化和核心 CPI 正增长， 但部分行业产能过剩和居民端预期谨慎制约内生动能。 反内卷政策提升了汽车、电气设备、光伏、风电等政策敏感行业以及计 算机通信等强需求行业的产能利用率，但传统三高行业改善缓慢，仍徘 徊在低位。 当前沪深 300 ERP 指标显示纯债具备更高性价比，该指标在未来一个月 到一年具有约 80%的胜率提示效果，若后续有效突破上下两边调查，将 具备良好的提示作用。 Q&A 对于 2026 年债券市场的整体观点是什么？ 2026 年债券市场的整体观点可以概括为"稳中有变，结构为王"。从基本面 和政策面的维度来看，明年的改变线索不多。然而，自下半年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance will issue the sixth tranche of RMB government bonds in Hong Kong on December 10, with a scale of 7 billion yuan, completing the plan to issue 68 billion yuan in RMB bonds in Hong Kong for the year. This marks the 17th consecutive year since 2009 that the Ministry has regularly issued sovereign bonds abroad [1][2]. Group 1 - The continuous issuance of RMB government bonds in Hong Kong enhances the offshore RMB yield curve, providing a pricing "cornerstone" for the market. The bonds, backed by national sovereign credit, are considered high-quality assets and stable investment tools. The issuance has diversified in terms of maturity, ranging from 2 years to 30 years, allowing for accurate reflection of offshore market supply and demand, thus serving as a core "benchmark anchor" for pricing other offshore RMB bonds [3][5]. - The issuance of high-credit government bonds supports the global reserve and allocation value of RMB assets, effectively promoting the internationalization of the RMB. The bonds issued in Hong Kong efficiently reach international investors, meeting their demand for RMB asset allocation. For instance, the average subscription multiple for the first five issuances this year was 3.27 times, with a peak of 3.96 times, indicating strong market interest and confidence in RMB assets [4][5]. - The regular issuance of RMB government bonds strengthens Hong Kong's status as an international financial center and supports the development of the real economy. This issuance promotes the improvement of the infrastructure for bond issuance, trading, settlement, and custody in Hong Kong, enhancing its international competitiveness. Additionally, funds raised from these bonds can support major national projects, contributing to the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the yield of credit bonds continued the adjustment trend of last week, with a slight upward adjustment from a low level. For example, the 3Y and 10Y yields of AA+ medium and short-term notes adjusted by 2BP and 5BP respectively within the week. From January to November 2025, there was a divergence in performance among different credit varieties and different terms. The short - end spread compression was generally greater than the long - end, and the spread compression of urban investment bonds and medium and short - term notes was generally better than that of secondary perpetual bonds. There is still strong logical support for going long on credit bonds around 3Y. The 3 - 5Y urban investment bond sinking strategy may still be the preferred strategy for credit bonds in the next stage [4][45]. - Overall, the credit spreads of the AA+ electronics and leisure services industries and the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly compared with last week, while the credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 5BP compared with last week. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of different terms fluctuated no more than 2BP compared with last week. For industrial bonds, most of the credit spreads widened slightly compared with last week, and a small number of terms and ratings of industrial bonds compressed slightly. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank secondary perpetual bonds of different terms and ratings widened to varying degrees compared with last week [4][44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Credit Hot Events - **Debt Risk Prevention and Control Ideas from the "15th Five - Year Plan" Proposals**: "Building a long - term government debt management mechanism" is the consensus among regions, and "activating stock resources and assets" is an important measure. Debt risk management may remain a key focus of local work in the future, and local asset activation may be the focus of the next stage [9]. - **Wu Qing's Speech**: On December 5th, Wu Qing, the chairman of the CSRC, proposed to improve the multi - level bond market system and vigorously develop science and technology innovation bonds and green bonds [11]. - **Optimization of Merger and Acquisition Notes**: On December 2nd, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued a notice to optimize the relevant working mechanism of merger and acquisition notes, which is conducive to guiding funds to accurately support enterprise mergers and acquisitions and improving the quality and efficiency of the inter - bank bond market in serving the real economy [12]. 3.2 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale**: This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 179.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 115.3 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 22.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2 billion yuan compared with last week. By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds decreased compared with last week [14]. - **Issuance Cost**: This week, the issuance interest rates of AA industrial bonds and financial bonds increased significantly compared with last week, while the issuance interest rates of other different ratings and bond types fluctuated no more than 20BP [16]. 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: This week, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 56.7 billion yuan compared with last week. The turnover rates of most credit bonds decreased compared with last week [22]. - **Yield**: This week, the yield of credit bonds continued the upward trend, with an upward adjustment of 0 - 5BP for credit bonds of different ratings and terms compared with last week [25]. - **Credit Spread**: Overall, the credit spreads of the AA+ electronics and leisure services industries and the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly compared with last week, while the credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 5BP compared with last week. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of different terms fluctuated no more than 2BP compared with last week. For industrial bonds, most of the credit spreads widened slightly compared with last week, and a small number of terms and ratings of industrial bonds compressed slightly. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank secondary perpetual bonds of different terms and ratings widened to varying degrees compared with last week [29][34][38][40]. 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Negative News This week, the implied rating of "21 Boxing 01" issued by Shandong Boxing Xinda Construction Investment and Development Co., Ltd. was downgraded [43]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - The central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan in the open market this week. As of Friday's close, DR001 closed at 1.31%. Overall, the credit spreads of the AA+ electronics and leisure services industries and the AAA electrical equipment industry compressed significantly compared with last week, while the credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 5BP compared with last week. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of different terms fluctuated no more than 2BP compared with last week. For industrial bonds, most of the credit spreads widened slightly compared with last week, and a small number of terms and ratings of industrial bonds compressed slightly. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank secondary perpetual bonds of different terms and ratings widened to varying degrees compared with last week [44]. - There is still strong logical support for going long on credit bonds around 3Y, and the 3 - 5Y urban investment bond sinking strategy may still be the preferred strategy for credit bonds in the next stage [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In December, the bond market adjusted. The 10 - year Treasury active bond yield decreased by 0.05bp to 1.8285% from last Friday. The stock and bond markets have been weak, not showing a complete "stock - bond seesaw" effect, especially for ultra - long bonds with a significant interest rate increase. Due to factors like the "anti - involution" policy and the fund fee rate new regulation draft, institutions may sell in advance to avoid fluctuations. In the context of the "asset shortage," it is recommended to gradually increase bond allocation when the 10 - year Treasury active bond yield reaches 1.85%, but shorten the duration [1][14]. - Overseas, the market is pricing in the Fed's interest rate cut. The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike on December 19 is a focus. The US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased, the manufacturing PMI continued to contract, and the Fed is focused on interest rate cut expectations and the change of the chairman. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in December 2025 is 86.20%, and the probability of another cut in January 2026 has decreased [15][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week View - **Domestic Bond Market**: The 10 - year Treasury active bond yield decreased by 0.05bp to 1.8285% from last Friday. The yield fluctuated throughout the week due to various factors such as market expectations of the central bank's bond - buying volume, policy expectations, and news from the Financial Times [1][10]. - **Overseas Market**: The market is pricing in the Fed's interest rate cut. The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike on December 19 is a focus. The US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 457,000 barrels from the week of November 21 to November 28. The manufacturing PMI continued to contract, and the Fed is focused on interest rate cut expectations and the change of the chairman. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in December 2025 is 86.20%, and the probability of another cut in January 2026 has decreased [15][24]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary - **Liquidity Tracking**: In the open - market operations from December 1 to December 5, 2025, the net investment was - 84.8 billion yuan. The money market interest rates showed some changes, with some rates decreasing and others increasing slightly [30][31]. - **Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking**: Steel prices showed mixed changes, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices also fluctuated. The prices of commodities such as coal, oil, and vegetables also changed to varying degrees [49]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: In the primary market, 56 local bonds were issued with a total amount of 108.717 billion yuan, including 58.277 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, 39.049 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 11.392 billion yuan of new general bonds. The net financing amount was 60.493 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive, strategic development, and shantytown renovation projects [75]. - **Secondary Market Overview**: The stock of local bonds was 54.01 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 31.0134 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.57%. The top three provinces with the most active trading were Hubei, Guangdong, and Shandong. The top three active trading maturities were 30Y, 20Y, and 10Y. The local bond yields generally increased [91][93]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: A total of 291 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance of 232.914 billion yuan, a total repayment of 174.89 billion yuan, and a net financing of 58.024 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.825 billion yuan from last week. Among them, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 14.491 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 72.515 billion yuan [98][99]. - **Issuance Interest Rate**: The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [109]. - **Secondary Market Transaction Overview**: The total turnover of credit bonds was 531.676 billion yuan. The trading volume of each bond type varied, with medium - term notes having the largest trading volume [110]. - **Yield to Maturity**: The yields to maturity of various bonds, including national development bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds, generally increased [110][111][112]. - **Credit Spread**: The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a divergent trend, while the credit spreads of corporate bonds also showed a general divergent trend, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally narrowed [114][119][122]. - **Rating Spread**: The rating spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a divergent trend, and the rating spreads of corporate bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [125][127][129]. - **Trading Activity**: The top five most actively traded bonds of each type were listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [133][134]. - **Subject Rating Change**: There were no bonds with rating or outlook upgrades or downgrades this week [135][136]