中信证券认为，2025年是智能驾驶行业加速渗透的一年，随着龙头企业开启"智驾平权"的战略，测算中 国乘用车行业高速NOA(导航辅助驾驶)和城市NOA渗透率分别达到16%和14%，销量约为363万辆、333 万辆。2026年，预测高速NOA、城市NOA渗透率将分别达到21%和22%。自动驾驶加速渗透带来头部智 驾公司、上游产业链、L4公司的投资机会。 我国自动驾驶产业迎来历史时刻。12月15日，工业和信息化部宣布，我国首批L3级有条件自动驾驶车 型获得产品准入许可。极狐汽车与长安汽车（000625）的两款纯电动轿车分别获得资质，将在北京、重 庆指定区域开展上路试点。 平安证券认为，1)自动驾驶技术走向量产应用。2)当前获批的L3车型的运行条件还存在诸多限制。3)智 能驾驶的商业化进程有望在2026年加速。尽管目前L3车型的运行条件还存在诸多限制，但此次L3车型 的准入获批意味着智驾在技术、政策端的进步，为后续智驾的商业化进程奠定基础。2026年智能驾驶的 商业闭环有望进一步打通。 ...

当辅助驾驶从前沿科技变为全民可享的日常体验，一个真正的智慧出行时代已经到来。近期，抖音平台 #买车就买乾崑智驾挑战赛热度飙升，吸引了大量网友自发参与，相关投稿迅速突破7.2万条，展现出强 烈的市场反响与群众关注。 亮眼数据背后是跨圈层的广泛参与，车圈与科技类博主深入解析技术，生活与泛娱乐类创作者发掘应用 场景，广大用户则分享亲身经历。这些多元记录，让已获行业与市场双重认可的华为乾崑智驾，完成了 从硬核技术到温暖体验的转化，也映照出其赢得的坚实信赖。 技术实力是信任的基础，安全是一切的基石。在太平洋汽车联合同济大学开展的2025辅助驾驶大横评 中，搭载华为乾崑智驾ADS的所有车型表现都非常突出，在多场景城区辅助驾驶挑战、AEB测试路遇侧 翻车等项目中均拿到了TOP成绩，华为乾崑智驾也凭借卓越的技术与安全实力在一次次实测中证明了自 己。 在行业层面，华为乾崑智驾的"朋友圈"持续壮大，合作 生态日益完善。截至10月底，华为乾崑已与15家车企达 成合作，华为乾崑智驾已广泛应用于鸿蒙智行、阿维 塔、深蓝、东风岚图、东风猛士等多个品牌，覆盖纯 电、增程、混动、燃油等多种动力形式，目前已有35款 量产车型上市，实现了从15 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that smart driving is currently undervalued and is transitioning from a future concept to a core competitive factor in the automotive industry, as the market shifts focus from electrification to smart driving technologies [5][14]. Industry Analysis - Smart driving is at a stage where technological feasibility has been validated, but commercial scale is yet to be fully realized, indicating a ripe opportunity for long-term investors [7]. - The industry is moving from exploratory phases to cost and efficiency optimization, which is a significant signal for accelerated commercialization [8]. - The essence of smart driving lies in platform capabilities rather than mere functional upgrades, highlighting the importance of a comprehensive system that includes hardware, algorithms, and data platforms [10]. Commercialization Path - Revenue sources and realization timelines in the smart driving sector are becoming clearer, with high-level driving transitioning from one-time sales to subscription models, enhancing profit quality [11][12]. - Applications of smart driving technology are already being implemented in various business scenarios, such as ports and logistics, providing a solid revenue foundation [13]. Investment Opportunities - In the Hong Kong stock market, companies with comprehensive smart driving capabilities are limited, with Baidu being a notable example due to its long-term strategic investments and unique data accumulation capabilities [15]. - Companies like Pony.ai and WeRide serve as critical benchmarks for the industry's potential, focusing on complex urban driving scenarios and L4-level automation, which could unlock significant replication potential if successful [16][17]. Strategic Approach - The smart driving theme is better suited for long-term investment strategies rather than short-term trading, with a focus on platform companies that maintain stable cash flows while investing in smart driving [22]. - The article concludes that smart driving represents a gradual but inevitable trend, with real opportunities arising from a deep understanding of the industry and companies before market sentiment fully aligns [23][24].

智能驾驶：被情绪低估、却正在重塑估值体系的长期资产 判断一个赛道是否值得长期关注，关键不在短期波动，而在产业所处阶段。当前智能驾驶的显著特征是：技术可行性已被反复验证，但商业化规模尚未全 面展开，这恰恰是长期投资价值开始显现的阶段。 在技术层面，L2+高阶辅助驾驶已在乘用车市场实现规模化落地，高速NOA和城市NOA正从"配置卖点"转为高频使用功能。随着用户使用习惯的形成，智 能驾驶正由可选体验走向实际刚需，付费基础随之建立。 与此同时，行业技术路线明显收敛。感知与决策方案逐步集中于BEV、多模态融合及端到端模型，意味着行业正从路径探索阶段转向成本和效率优化阶 段，这通常是商业化提速的重要信号。 智能驾驶的本质不是功能升级，而是平台能力的竞争 在多数投资者的认知中，智能驾驶仍被视为"未来概念"，距离实际收益尚远。但回顾产业历史可以发现，真正改变结构的技术浪潮，往往在早期被低估， 在中期被质疑，最终在兑现阶段被重新定价。智能驾驶，正从第一阶段迈向第二阶段。 过去几年，资本市场的核心叙事集中在新能源的"电动化"上，这一逻辑在早期成立。但随着渗透率提升、价格战加剧以及硬件同质化加深，电动化已难以 继续推动估值中枢系统 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The computer industry has shown steady revenue growth and improved profit margins, with total revenue reaching 939.34 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [11] - The software development sub-industry has seen significant profit improvements, while the computer equipment sub-industry remains relatively high in terms of market sentiment [11] - The industry has experienced a volatile upward trend since the beginning of 2025, with the computer industry index rising by 18.54% as of November 28, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.5 percentage points [18] Group 2: Algorithm and Applications - The global landscape of large models is rapidly evolving, with significant competition among closed-source models from companies like Google, Anthropic, and OpenAI, while domestic open-source models like Kimi K2 and MiniMax-M2 maintain a leading position [27][30] - The focus of large model applications is shifting towards programming, enterprise services, and office productivity tools, indicating a convergence in the market [42] - The integration of multi-modal capabilities and AI agents is becoming a competitive focal point in the large model market, expanding the boundaries of model tasks [32][34] Group 3: Computing Power - The AI computing power market is experiencing high demand, with the global AI server market projected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% from 2024 to 2028, while China's market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 30.6% during the same period [10] - The domestic AI computing power chip industry is poised for growth due to strong policy support and increasing downstream demand, with a clear trend towards self-sufficiency [10][22] Group 4: Intelligent Driving - The penetration rate of Navigate on Autopilot (NOA) features is increasing, indicating a rapid commercialization of the intelligent driving industry in China, with the market size expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2030 [4] - Major players like Tesla and Xpeng are advancing their intelligent driving technologies, with significant updates and new model releases enhancing their market positions [4][5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the computer industry, highlighting investment opportunities in AI computing power, algorithms, and intelligent driving sectors [5] - Specific stock recommendations include companies like Zhongke Chuangda, Haiguang Information, and Industrial Fulian in the AI computing power segment, and companies like Daotong Technology and Kingsoft Office in the AI algorithm and application space [5][6]

Summary of Horizon Robotics Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Horizon Robotics - **Industry**: Intelligent driving solutions in China Key Points Market Penetration and Growth - The penetration rate of urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) is expected to accelerate in 2026, following rapid growth in highway NOA in 2025, with Horizon Robotics capturing over 40% of the highway NOA market by 2025 [1] - The company is expanding its HSD (High-Performance Driving) product matrix targeting mainstream economy vehicles priced above 100,000 RMB, which is anticipated to increase its market share in urban NOA [1] - Total revenue is projected to reach 15 billion RMB by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 58% from 2024 to 2028 [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue estimates for fiscal years ending December are adjusted as follows: - FY25E: 3,269 million RMB (down 3.7% from previous estimate) - FY26E: 5,517 million RMB (down 5.6% from previous estimate) [2] - The company expects to achieve profitability by 2028, with total revenue reaching 15 billion RMB [9][24] Product Launch and Performance - Two HSD solutions launched in Q4 2025 have shown strong activation rates, with 12,000 units activated within two weeks of launch [5] - HSD600 and HSD300 are designed for vehicles priced above 130,000 RMB and are expected to achieve shipments of 25,000 units in 2025 and 461,000 units in 2026, respectively [5] - The company aims to cover approximately 70% of new energy vehicles with its urban NOA solutions starting in 2026 [5] Investor Sentiment and Competitive Landscape - Investor feedback indicates a consensus on the optimistic outlook for the acceleration of intelligent driving feature penetration, with Horizon Robotics seen as a key beneficiary [5] - Concerns exist regarding valuation, with the current stock price reflecting a 13x projected sales multiple for 2027, and increasing competition from third-party suppliers like Momenta [5] - Despite competition, Horizon's market leadership and unique technology position it for a valuation premium [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - The stock price has rebounded 24% since November 21, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index, which rose 3% during the same period [5] - The target price for the stock is set at 13 HKD by December 2026, based on a 19x forward price-to-sales ratio, which is approximately 79% higher than its Hong Kong peers [9][25] Risks - Key risks affecting the rating include intensified competition, potential order shortfalls due to demand shrinkage or project delays, and disruptions in R&D or supply chains [26] Financial Metrics - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth, with a projected revenue CAGR of 54% from 2024 to 2027 [24] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to improve significantly by 2028, with total revenue reaching 15 billion RMB [9][24] Additional Insights - The company is positioned as a leading supplier of intelligent driving solutions in China, with a product portfolio that includes chips and algorithm suites for entry-level ADAS and higher-level scenarios [24] - Emerging demands from robotaxi and other robotic scenarios are expected to provide long-term growth potential for Horizon Robotics [24] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the company's growth trajectory, financial forecasts, product performance, and market positioning.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for key companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, Ctrip, Bilibili, Xiaomi, NetEase, and Meituan, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance in the upcoming year [26]. Core Insights - The report highlights the expectation of improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market, suggesting it may be an opportune time to invest in technology-related sectors [5]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of AI application commercialization, with significant developments from major companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and others [5][25]. - The report notes that southbound capital has shown a net inflow of 12,878 billion yuan year-to-date, which is 173.09% of the total net inflow for 2024, indicating strong investor interest [5]. Summary by Sections Company Financials and News - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize economic growth [7]. - Alibaba has restructured its business into the Qianwen C-end division, which has quickly gained over 30 million monthly active users [7]. - Tencent has launched new AI features in its QQ platform, enhancing user engagement [7]. Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index and related indices experienced slight declines, with the Hang Seng Technology Index down 0.43% [5]. - Notable net purchases from southbound funds included Xiaomi, Meituan, and Beike, indicating strong market interest in these stocks [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on platform-based internet companies with synergistic advantages in computing power, model capabilities, and application scenarios, including Tencent, Ctrip, Kuaishou, Alibaba, Bilibili, Xiaomi, Baidu, and Meituan [25]. - It also highlights AI ecosystem companies with model or application capabilities, such as JD Health, Huixuan Technology, KEEP, Fenbi, Zhihu, Fourth Paradigm, and Tuya Smart [25].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese intelligent driving industry is transitioning into a critical phase focused on "scaled commercialization," with key players like Horizon Robotics leading the way in providing essential technological support for various autonomous driving applications [1][10]. Group 1: Industry Developments - Horizon Robotics hosted the "Towards High Together" 2025 Technology Ecosystem Conference, gathering industry leaders to explore innovative paths for high-quality development in the intelligent driving sector [1]. - The company emphasizes the importance of service providers in the autonomous driving ecosystem, who focus on scenario-based services rather than just vehicle manufacturing [1][10]. Group 2: Partnerships and Collaborations - Horizon Robotics collaborates with various partners to provide key technological support for diverse scenarios such as Robotaxi, unmanned delivery, and trunk logistics, showcasing the results of joint research and product creation [3][5]. - GoGoX and Amigo's founders shared their vision for deploying Robotaxi in Hong Kong, aiming to enhance urban transportation experiences [3]. - The partnership with Xing Shen Intelligent focuses on deep integration of autonomous driving technology with logistics, resulting in a cost reduction of 30% for their L4 urban unmanned logistics solution [3]. - New Stone's collaboration with Horizon Robotics has led to the deployment of over 13,000 L4 unmanned vehicles across more than 300 cities globally [4]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - Horizon Robotics' chips and algorithms are integral to the development of autonomous driving systems, with companies like Yingche Technology achieving over 400 million kilometers in commercial operation using Horizon's technology [5][7]. - The KargoBot Space, developed by Karl Power, utilizes Horizon's chips to enhance cargo space and efficiency, marking a significant step towards profitable L4 autonomous freight operations [7]. Group 4: Industry Insights and Future Directions - Industry experts agree that the commercialization and scaling of autonomous driving depend on strong technological support and ecosystem collaboration [8]. - The transition from technology-driven to value-driven approaches in autonomous driving is seen as a critical milestone for the industry [8]. - Horizon Robotics aims to empower partners through foundational computing platforms and AI technology, facilitating the shift towards fully autonomous logistics and commercial vehicles [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company is set to hold the "2025 Horizon Technology Ecosystem Conference" in Shenzhen, focusing on advanced driving assistance systems and the commercialization of autonomous driving technologies [4]. Group 1: HSD Production and Market Penetration - The high-level driving assistance system (HSD) has begun mass production, with over 12,000 units activated within two weeks of launch, indicating strong market demand [5]. - The HSD system is expected to penetrate the 100,000 yuan vehicle market, targeting models priced between 130,000 and 200,000 yuan, which currently account for 50% of passenger car transactions in China [5]. - The first partners for the HSD system include Bosch, Zhuoyue, and Qingzhou Zhihang, showcasing collaboration with Tier-1 suppliers [5]. Group 2: HSD Together Algorithm Service Model - The HSD Together model offers a comprehensive algorithm service, allowing partners to focus on system integration and vehicle adaptation, significantly reducing costs and time [7]. - The J6 series chips are expected to see accelerated shipments due to the HSD algorithm's application in lower-cost vehicle markets [7]. Group 3: New BPU Architecture and Chip Development - The newly released "Riemann" BPU architecture enhances key operator performance by tenfold and increases the number of supported high-precision operators by tenfold, aiming to compete with Tesla's AI5 chip [8]. - The fourth-generation compiler "Tiangong Kaiwu" has improved compilation speed from hours to minutes, enhancing model performance by 20% [8]. Group 4: Open Source Robotics Models - The company has launched over 100 robotic products and established connections with over 100 partners and 100,000 developers, introducing two open-source embodied intelligence models: HoloMotion and HoloBrain [9]. - HoloMotion is already available on GitHub and has been adopted by institutions such as Stanford and Tsinghua [9].

Market Performance - The A-share market opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.57%, the ChiNext Index up 0.6%, and the Northern Stock 50 up 1.12% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 91.2 billion yuan compared to the previous day's turnover [1] Sector Performance - Active sectors included electric grid equipment and precious metals, while commercial aerospace stocks showed repeated activity [1] - Concepts such as nuclear fusion, CPO, ultra-high voltage, superconductors, charging piles, and photolithography stocks saw significant gains [1] - The lithium battery electrolyte, cross-strait integration, and banking sectors weakened [1] ETF Performance - The ultra-high voltage and smart grid sectors experienced rapid increases, with ETFs from Huaxia, Guotai, and GF rising by 3.07%, 2.64%, and 2.63% respectively [1] - The overnight Dow Jones index rose, leading to a 2.68% increase in the Penghua Dow Jones ETF [1] - Gold stocks rose for the second consecutive day, with the Ping An Fund Gold Stock ETF and Huaxia Fund Gold Stock ETF increasing by 2.16% and 1.89% respectively [1] - The smart driving sector was active, with the Fuguo Fund Smart Car ETF and Huitianfu Fund Smart Car ETF rising by 1.93% and 1.83% respectively [1] Weak Sectors - The lithium battery sector declined, with ETFs such as Invesco's battery ETF, leading new energy vehicle ETFs, and new energy vehicle ETFs all dropping by 1% [2] - The rare metals sector weakened, with the rare metals ETF also falling by 1% [2] - Chemical stocks showed poor performance, with the chemical ETF down by 0.76% [2]