| | | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。 长假期间螺纹表需大幅下滑，同比依然偏弱，产量小幅回落，库存大幅累积。热卷需求同步下滑，产量小 幅回落，库存大幅累积。铁水产量维持高位，下游承接能力不足，随着钢厂利润下滑，产业链负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游 行业看，9月PMI回升至49.8，制造业边际企稳，长假期间地产销售降幅扩大，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位，外围加 征关税带来一定扰动。盘面持续调整后稍有企稳，反弹动能依然不足，短期震荡为主，关注节后需求回暖力度。 【铁矿】 铁矿今日盘面上涨。 供应端，全球发运环比下降，国内到港量反弹，港口库存增加，其中巴西矿增加较为明显，短期市场对于 供应受到扰动的担忧有所增加。需求端，铁水高位存在韧性，钢厂盈利率继续走弱，国庆前后钢厂存在一定补库需求，但随着 钢厂利润的收缩，以及国内需求依然处于相对低位，未来减产的压力逐步增加。国内10月将要召开重要会议，市场仍然存在一 定政策预期，但对外贸易摩擦的不确定性也依然存在。我们预计铁矿短期高位震荡为主。 | MILIA | FREE STATE | beer in the real and AM | | --- | --- | ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 14,024.50 46.71 13,977.79 46.71 15,105.93 -1,081.43 247家钢厂进口矿库存 9,046.19 -990.60 10,036.79 -990.60 8,985.30 60.89 45港铁矿石到货量 2,608.70 248.20 2,360.50 248.20 1,958.70 650.00 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,279.00 -196.40 3,475.40 -196.40 2,981.20 297.80 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 241.54 -0.27 241.81 -0.27 233.08 8.46 45港日均疏港量 327.00 -9.40 336.40 -9.40 325.01 1.99 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 299.14 0.34 298.80 0.34 288.15 10.99 主港铁矿成交周均值 98.00 58.63 39.37 58.63 98.24 -0.24 数据来源：我的钢铁网 宝城期货金融研究所 铁矿石周度数据（20251010） 库存 供给 需求 ...

每经AI快讯，盛屯矿业（SH 600711，收盘价：11.17元）10月10日晚间发布公告称，截至2025年9月30 日，公司以集中竞价交易方式累计回购公司股份约3358万股，占公司总股本的比例为1.0866%，购买的 最高价为8.75元/股、最低价为约8.10元/股，已支付的资金总额为人民币约2.79亿元。 2024年1至12月份，盛屯矿业的营业收入构成为：能源金属业务占比60.98%，基本金属业务占比 31.29%，金属冶炼及综合回收占比5.14%，其他业务占比2.58%。 截至发稿，盛屯矿业市值为345亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——天水麻辣烫、淄博烧烤、荣昌卤鹅⋯⋯"泼天流量"退去后，这些城市怎么 样了？ （记者 曾健辉） ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, copper production decreased by 36.4% quarter-on-quarter to 71,226 tons, and zinc production increased by 26.1% to 52,700 tons [1][3] - The Kamoa-Kakula project is expected to start mining in the high-grade area on the west side in mid-November, with a production guidance of 370,000 to 420,000 tons of copper concentrate for the year [1][2] - The Kipushi concentrator achieved a record zinc production of 52,700 tons in Q3 2025, benefiting from the completion of a bottleneck elimination plan and upgrades to the processing technology [3][6] Production and Operational Summary Copper Production - In Q3 2025, the Kamoa-Kakula project processed 3.46 million tons of ore, producing 71,226 tons of copper, with a year-to-date total of 316,393 tons [1] - The average copper grade for the third phase concentrator was 2.44%, with a recovery rate of 84.2% [2][13] - The mining team plans to increase the ore grade to between 3.5% and 4.5% as they advance into the central area of the Kamoa-Kakula project [2] Zinc Production - The Kipushi concentrator processed 168,862 tons of ore in Q3 2025, with a zinc recovery rate of 89.36% [3][15] - The production increase was attributed to the successful completion of the bottleneck elimination project, which raised the annual processing capacity from 800,000 tons to 960,000 tons [3][6] Project Developments Kamoa-Kakula - The second phase drainage project is progressing as planned, with over 20% completion expected by the end of November 2025 [7] - A direct copper smelting plant is set to begin preheating in early November 2025, with a capacity to produce up to 700,000 tons of high-concentration sulfuric acid annually [8][10] Kipushi - The installation of a 6 MW backup generator is underway to address ongoing power instability, which will enhance operational reliability [6] - The Kipushi project team has completed the capacity expansion plan ahead of schedule and under budget, maintaining a strong safety record throughout the process [6]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have been rising since early April, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in the past six months, currently trading at $10,727.50 per ton on LME. UBS forecasts further upward potential for copper prices driven by supply-side factors, predicting a range of $10,000 to $11,500 per ton in the coming quarters [1][4]. Supply Factors - UBS highlights multiple supply disruptions, notably Freeport-McMoRan's temporary halt of operations at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a landslide, which is expected to significantly impact production until 2027. The company has lowered its 2026 production guidance for Grasberg by 35%, equating to a reduction of approximately 270,000 tons of copper [4]. - Other major copper mines have also faced challenges, such as the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which revised its 2025 production guidance down from 520,000-580,000 tons to 370,000-420,000 tons due to seismic events. Additionally, the El Teniente mine in Chile has reduced its output by 300,000 tons, approximately 11% lower than previous expectations [4]. - Current spot refining and smelting charges (TCRC) remain at historical lows, coupled with expectations of an impending Federal Reserve rate cut and a weaker dollar, contributing to copper prices exceeding $10,600 per ton. UBS anticipates supply growth of 1.3% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 [4]. Demand Factors - China continues to be the primary driver of global copper demand, with significant contributions from the electric vehicle, renewable energy, and home appliance sectors. Refined copper production and copper concentrate imports from China have increased this year, while traditional demand from Europe and the U.S. remains weak [5]. - UBS maintains its demand forecasts, projecting refined copper demand growth of 2.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, leading to supply deficits of 53,000 tons and 87,000 tons in those respective years [5]. Investment Perspective - UBS favors a volatility selling strategy, particularly selling downside risk in copper prices to enhance returns, which is seen as attractive in the short term amid anticipated macroeconomic headwinds. However, the firm remains bullish on copper prices in the long term, preferring to hold long positions directly [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Tokyo stock market experienced a significant decline on October 10, influenced by a drop in the U.S. stock market and profit-taking by investors [1] Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index closed down by 1.01%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index fell by 1.85% [1] - The Nikkei index dropped by 491.64 points, ending at 48,088.80 points; the Tokyo Stock Exchange index decreased by 60.18 points, closing at 3,197.59 points [1] Sector Analysis - Almost all 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw declines, with the securities and commodity futures trading, mining, and petroleum and coal products sectors experiencing the largest drops [1] - The retail sector was an exception, supported by a more than 6% increase in the stock price of Fast Retailing, the parent company of Uniqlo, due to strong performance [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the significance of the recent issuance of the "Mining License" and "Property Rights Certificate" by the Ministry of Natural Resources, which alleviates market concerns regarding the company's ability to continue lithium salt operations [1][4] - The company is positioned to benefit from its high-quality assets, favorable timing, and promising collaborations, particularly in copper, potassium chloride, and lithium carbonate sectors [2] - The report forecasts a substantial increase in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected figures of 34.39 billion, 49.06 billion, and 62.26 billion respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Cangge Mining (000408.SZ), has received essential mining licenses that support its long-term development in potassium and lithium resources [1][4] Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: - Revenue: 34.39 billion (2025), 49.06 billion (2026), 62.26 billion (2027) - Net Profit: 3.43 billion (2025), 4.91 billion (2026), 6.22 billion (2027) [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.19 (2025), 3.12 (2026), and 3.96 (2027) [3] Market Position - The company is strategically positioned in the market with significant assets in the Chaharhan Salt Lake and a stake in Jilong Copper, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The overseas markets are experiencing significant volatility, with gold surpassing $4000 for the first time, reflecting a 53% increase year-to-date, while the Nasdaq is approaching 23000 points and the Japanese stock market has reached 48000 points [1][2] - The U.S. stock market is driven by positive sentiment, with all three major indices hitting new highs, supported by AI developments and anticipated strong earnings reports for Q3, projected to increase by 7.9% year-over-year [2][4] Group 2: Gold and Precious Metals - Gold's surge to over $4000 is attributed to investors seeking safe-haven assets amid fears of a U.S. government shutdown, with central banks, including China, increasing their gold reserves for 11 consecutive months [2][4] - Silver prices have also risen, breaking $48 due to high demand from solar panels and electronics, with projections indicating a shortage by 2025 [2] - Platinum has reached over $1600, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from the automotive industry, particularly hybrid vehicles [2] Group 3: European Market Dynamics - The European market is facing challenges, with the UK FTSE 100 hitting a historical high, while Germany's industrial output fell by 4.3% in August, indicating economic weakness [4] - France's political instability, highlighted by the resignation of the new Prime Minister after just 27 days, has led to increased bond yields and a decline in the euro against the dollar [4][5] Group 4: U.S. Economic Concerns - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 9 days, causing delays in economic data releases and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with potential implications for economic growth [4][5] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming statements from the Federal Reserve, particularly from Chairman Powell, for insights into future monetary policy [4]

国信期货：供需情况看，铁矿石供需双旺。需求端，钢材产量带动铁水产量维持在高位，铁矿石需求韧 性较强；在高需求带动下，铁矿石产量维持在相对高位。不过钢材库存压力较大，未来钢厂有减产预 期，因此铁矿石需求有一定压力，供应端未来有一定增加预期，铁矿石预期相对偏弱。预计短线延续弱 势震荡。 中州期货：综合来看，本期五大材周度产量和消费均下降，总库存累积。高炉铁水略降但整体仍处于高 位，铁矿港口库存累积。地产销售、开工、施工和竣工数据仍较差。钢材出口韧性较强但面临部分国家 贸易保护，成材总库存低位，相关部门治理企业无序竞争；1-8月进口铁矿石和国产铁矿同比均下降。 央行货币政策适度宽松，美联储降息周期，震荡运行。 据统计全国45个港口进口铁矿石库存总量14024.50万吨，环比增24.22万吨；全国47个港口进口铁矿库存 为14641.08万吨，环比增90.40万吨。 据统计全国钢厂进口铁矿石库存总量为9046.19万吨，环比减990.60万吨；当前样本钢厂的进口矿日耗为 299.14万吨，环比增0.34万吨；库存消费比30.24天，环比减3.35天。 机构观点 10月10日，铁矿石期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约小 ...

本报记者 许林艳 肖伟 据了解，当这些基本金属市场波动或价格低迷时，矿山开发意愿下降，会直接拖累白银的伴生供应。"即便银价上涨，矿 企也很难在短期内为白银单独扩大产能。白银的提炼还需要看冶炼企业的技术能力强弱和综合成本的高低。"陈湘军说道。 近段时间以来，贵金属的持续涨势引发市场广泛关注。黄金价格不断攀升之外，白银价格也屡创新高，且年内涨幅比黄金 更为强劲。 10月9日，现货白银价格突破50美元/盎司，为历史首次。10月10日，据东方财富Choice数据，白银开盘价报46.67美元/盎 司，最高达51.38美元/盎司，年内涨幅超70%。 浙商证券研报表示，当前白银的核心矛盾点在于趋势性减少的库存与贵金属牛市下日益提升的白银投资机会。 "当前，矿端供给已进入刚性区间，全球白银矿产供给目前面临增长瓶颈。2019年至2024年间，全球矿产银产量不仅没有 增长，反而略有下降。"湖南白银股份有限公司董秘袁志勇在接受《证券日报》记者采访时说道。据了解，这背后有两个核心 原因，一是矿石品位持续下滑，这意味着要获得同样多的白银，需要开采和加工更多的矿石，直接推高了单位生产成本。二是 全球矿端扰动频发，主要产区的大型银矿常受到 ...