光期研究 见微知著 2025 年下半年铁合金策略报告 2025 年 0 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铁合金：终端需求偏弱，合金价格反弹承压 p 2 锰硅：关注未来锰矿发运情况 总 结 供应：低利润甚至负利润下锰硅周产量仍在逐渐增加，后续仍有一定增量预期。依据钢联数据，目前北方大区锰硅生产即期利润约- 170元/吨，南方大区锰硅生产即期利润约-500元/吨，在如此幅度亏损下，锰硅产量当周值连续六周环比回升，且还有新增产能投放，随着 后续南方地区丰水期复产意愿增加，生产亏损环比收窄情况下，未来锰硅产量仍有增量预期。 需求：终端需求偏弱影响持续，钢厂锰硅储备意愿不强。吨钢消耗锰硅数量较多螺纹产量创下近年来同期新低，样本钢厂锰硅需求量 当周值同样如此，6月钢厂锰硅库存可用天数环比略有回升，但仍处于近年来同期较低水平，终端需求不足，下游备货意愿不强。 库存：样本企业库存逐渐累积，仓单加有效预报数量同比下降，仍有9万余张。自2月底开始，锰硅样本企业库存便开始逐渐回升，截 止6月末，约22.18万吨，同比增加14.8 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the steel market in the second half of the year will be influenced by multiple factors, with prices expected to initially decline before rising [1] - Domestic demand for steel is heavily reliant on policy support, with a projected decline in demand for construction steel, although urban renewal may offset some of the decrease [1] - Infrastructure steel demand may improve on a month-on-month basis, but lacks significant growth potential [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is showing weakness in certain areas, requiring support from "two new" policies [1] - Direct exports are expected to remain high, but are unlikely to drive steel prices significantly [1] - Supply-side production is anticipated to fluctuate slightly, with ongoing reductions in crude steel production causing disruptions [1] Group 3 - Iron ore supply pressure is easing, with a projected increase of approximately 13.7 million tons in global iron ore shipments by 2025, while annual foreign ore arrivals are expected to decrease by 15 to 20 million tons year-on-year [1] - Under optimistic assumptions, average molten iron production is expected to be 2.39 million tons per day in Q3, decreasing to 2.28 million tons per day in Q4 [1] - Under pessimistic assumptions, crude steel production may be reduced by 10 to 20 million tons in Q4, leading to significant inventory pressure [1] Group 4 - Recommendations suggest seizing rebound opportunities in undervalued areas while paying attention to the downward pressure from crude steel reduction policies [1] - Risk factors include potential negative impacts from tariffs on exports and strict enforcement of crude steel reduction policies [1] - The demand outlook for coke is not optimistic, with no significant downward expectations for molten iron in the short term, but long-term demand for finished products remains under pressure [1] Group 5 - Coking coal mines are still profitable, but supply pressures persist, with short-term demand for molten iron supported by basic needs [1] - High levels of imports are stable, but price pressures exist, necessitating attention to coal mine safety regulations [1] - The cost of silicon manganese continues to exert pressure, with production control becoming increasingly difficult [1] Group 6 - The difficulty of destocking silicon iron is increasing, with challenges in inventory digestion as steel production declines [1] - The destocking process may accelerate during the peak season, with potential for valuation recovery, although the extent of rebound is limited [1] - Attention is required on production control measures from manufacturers [1]

2 硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：板块价格提振，矿端助推成本重心上移 | 基本面 | 条 | 硅 | 硅 | 铁 | 锰 | 目 | 当期值 | 当期值 | 比 | 同 | 比 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 环 | 环 | 周产量（周） ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Semi - annual Report - Report Date: June 27, 2025 - Report Institution: Galaxy Futures Core Viewpoint - The cost is loose, which drags down the ferroalloy market, and the alloy continues to bottom out [2] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Situation Price and Spread - The report presents the trends of ferroalloy main contracts, including silicon iron and silicon manganese main contracts, and their price ranges from 4500 to 8000 yuan/ton [7][8] - It shows the spot market prices of 72% FeSi silicon iron in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Shaanxi, with prices ranging from 4500 - 7000 yuan/ton [9][10] - The disk main contract sf - sm spread is also presented, with a range from - 2000 to 3000 yuan/ton [14] Market Demand - related Indicators - Real estate new construction area remains sluggish, and land transaction area is also monitored [25][26] - Local government special bond issuance progress is fast this year, but the proportion invested in infrastructure is too low [31][36] - Industrial enterprise profits lead manufacturing investment, and manufacturing investment is relatively synchronized with exports [33] - Steel direct exports remain at a high level, and indirect exports also show resilience. The indirect steel consumption of some commodities from January - April 2025 compared with 2024 shows different growth rates, with the total indirect steel consumption increasing by 9.03% [35][40] Production and Inventory - The production enterprise start - up rates of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, with the silicon iron start - up rate ranging from 20 - 80% and the silicon manganese start - up rate ranging from 10 - 70% [45][51] - The inventories of alloy plants (silicon iron and silicon manganese), the average available days of steel mill inventories (silicon iron and silicon manganese), and the warehouse receipt situations (silicon iron and silicon manganese) are also shown [49][53][54] Cost - related Factors - The growth rates and proportions of different energy - structure power generation are presented, including hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power, and thermal power [61][66] - Electricity prices in different regions such as Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Shaanxi are shown, ranging from 0.35 - 0.6 yuan/degree [63] - The prices of chemical coke in Yinchuan, lanthanum small materials in various places, global manganese ore shipments, manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port, and national manganese ore inventories are also included [68][70][74] - The production costs and profits of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions are presented [76][79] 2. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - No specific future outlook and strategy recommendation content is presented in the provided text

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint No clear core viewpoint presented in the given content, which mainly consists of price, supply, demand, inventory, and cost - profit data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For ferrosilicon on June 27, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 natural block was 5130 yuan, with a daily change of 30 yuan and a weekly change of 30 yuan; the export price of Tianjin 72 was 1020 US dollars, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 35 US dollars [2]. - For silicomanganese on June 27, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 at the production area was 5520 yuan, with a daily change of 20 yuan and a weekly change of 40 yuan [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production, and capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia [4]. - The production data of silicomanganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, such as weekly production and enterprise start - up rate [6]. Demand - Ferrosilicon demand - related data include export prices at Tianjin Port, export quantity in China, and procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - Silicomanganese demand - related data involve the estimated demand in China and export quantity from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon inventory data include the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, inventory in Ningxia, and warehouse receipt data from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - Silicomanganese inventory data cover warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost Profit - Ferrosilicon cost - profit data include electricity prices in different regions, Lanthanum carbon prices, production costs in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and corresponding profits from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - Silicomanganese cost - profit data involve the profits in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and other regions from 2021 - 2025 [7].

Core Insights - The iron alloy industry has made significant progress in eliminating backward production capacity since 2021, but lacks key measures for substantial carbon reduction [1] - Carbon pricing mechanisms, including carbon taxes and carbon trading, are essential for controlling carbon emissions, with each having distinct advantages and limitations [2][3] Carbon Pricing Mechanisms - Carbon taxes provide stable revenue expectations for companies, promoting low-carbon technology innovation, but may not effectively control total carbon emissions [2][3] - Carbon trading offers a superior total control mechanism, with predetermined emission limits that prevent significant breaches even during economic booms [3] - The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the largest carbon trading market globally, demonstrating effective emission control alongside economic growth [3] Industry Challenges and Responses - The iron alloy industry faces high energy consumption pressures, with significant electricity usage per ton of products like silicon iron and manganese silicon [7] - The Chinese government has set ambitious energy efficiency targets for the iron alloy industry, requiring a substantial proportion of production to meet benchmark levels by 2025 [7] - The establishment of a green product certification standard is crucial for guiding the industry's transition to low-carbon development [7][8] Green Product Certification - The newly released green product certification standard for iron alloys focuses on the entire product lifecycle, addressing energy consumption, resource utilization, and carbon emissions [8] - If the entire industry achieves certification, it is estimated that energy consumption per product could decrease by approximately 15%, saving around 25 billion kWh annually [9] Futures Market Initiatives - The "Green Assistance" pilot project aims to leverage futures tools to support the green transition of iron alloy production, providing financial incentives for certified green product producers [10][12] - The integration of green certification with futures trading is expected to enhance market competitiveness and promote a virtuous cycle of green transformation [12][13] Pathways for Industry Transformation - The iron alloy industry must enhance low-carbon technology research and data monitoring capabilities to address existing shortcomings [14] - A composite mechanism combining carbon taxes and carbon trading could better meet the industry's complex needs, alongside coordinated green finance policies [15] - Industry leaders should take on a proactive role in driving green development, with associations refining standards and fostering a supportive ecosystem [16][17] Conclusion - The iron alloy industry is undergoing a fundamental shift towards green and low-carbon practices, supported by new certification standards and innovative financial tools [18] - Continued collaboration among government, market, and enterprises is essential for achieving energy savings and industrial upgrades, positioning the industry favorably in the global low-carbon competition [18]

Group 1: Market Overview - The high carbon ferrochrome market is currently stable with cautious optimism, despite the lack of substantial improvement in supply-demand dynamics [1][2] - Market sentiment has improved slightly, but a cautious mindset persists due to expectations of a low season affecting high carbon ferrochrome supply [2] - Current external quotations for high carbon ferrochrome are concentrated around 7700-7850 CNY per 50 base tons [2] Group 2: Market Transactions - Zhongtian Changzhou plans to procure 1100 tons of high carbon ferrochrome and 100 tons of medium carbon ferrochrome, with bidding starting on June 27 [2] - Central South Co. plans to tender for 450 tons of high carbon ferrochrome, with the bidding deadline set for June 30 [2] - The alloy price index for high carbon ferrochrome shows regional variations, with prices reported as follows: Hebei 7965 CNY, Shandong 8053 CNY (down 10), Liaoning 8193 CNY, Jiangsu 8249 CNY (down 30), Sichuan 8126 CNY (up 10), Hunan 8150 CNY (down 30) [2] Group 3: Chrome Ore Market - The latest transaction price for South African chrome concentrate (40-42%) at Tianjin Port is 265 USD per ton, unchanged from the previous round [4] - The chrome ore market is experiencing price adjustments, with various grades listed, such as South African lump ore (36%-38%) priced at 220-230 USD per ton and South African concentrate (42%-44%) at 280-290 USD per ton [5] - The overall market sentiment indicates a potential increase in the likelihood of short-term consolidation in the ferrochrome market due to the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 26, the silicon iron 2509 contract closed at 5384, up 0.98%. The spot price of silicon iron in Ningxia was reported at 5240. The production profit of ferroalloys is negative, the cost support is weakened by the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia, the overall expectation of steel demand is still weak, and the market should pay attention to the market sentiment disturbance under the change of tariff policies. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as oscillating [2]. - On June 26, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5676, up 0.96%. The spot price of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5500. Although the manufacturers' production cuts have led the operating rate to a low level in the same period, the overall inventory is still high. The downstream hot - metal production has peaked and declined, and the raw - material coal has stopped falling and stabilized. The steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender price continues to decline. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as oscillating [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Manganese - Silicon (SM)**: The closing price of the SM main contract was 5676 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the contract position was 588,389 hands, down 3429 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 35,666 hands, down 1939 hands; the spread between the 1 - 9 month contracts was 34 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 93,468, down 301 [2]. - **Silicon - Iron (SF)**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5384 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the contract position was 421,144 hands, down 12,473 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 56,135 hands, down 6086 hands; the spread between the 1 - 9 month contracts was - 30 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 6415, up 6415 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Manganese - Silicon**: The prices of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, and Yunnan were 5500, 5500, and 5450 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5465 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan. The basis of the SM main contract was - 176 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The prices of silicon - iron in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia were 5300, 5140, and 5240 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the SF main contract was - 144 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Manganese - Silicon**: The price of South African Mn38 lumps at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, up 4 yuan. The port inventory of manganese ore was 421.50 tons, down 18.60 tons. The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 850 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The price of silica (98%, Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of semi - coke (medium - sized, Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Manganese - Silicon**: The operating rate of manganese - silicon enterprises was 36.39%, up 1.09%. The supply was 176,610 tons, up 3220 tons. The manufacturers' inventory was 195,900 tons, up 9300 tons. The national steel - mill inventory was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days. The demand of the five major steel types was 123,717 tons, up 1564 tons [2]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The operating rate of silicon - iron enterprises was 32.69%, up 1.34%. The supply was 97,900 tons, up 2800 tons. The manufacturers' inventory was 69,900 tons, up 2200 tons. The national steel - mill inventory was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days. The demand of the five major steel types was 19,964.40 tons, up 356.60 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, up 0.45%. The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, up 0.25%. The monthly crude - steel output was 86.545 million tons, up 526,000 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In May, despite the significant increase in the sales of pure - electric vehicles in Europe, Tesla's new - car sales in the region decreased by nearly 28% year - on - year [2]. - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants in the country was 59.10%, down 2.23% from the previous period; the daily average output was 501,500 tons, down 84,000 tons; the raw - coal inventory was 3.2128 million tons, down 50,800 tons; the clean - coal inventory was 2.3187 million tons, down 55,200 tons [2]. - The chairman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said that the Iranian government has taken necessary measures to ensure the continuation of the nuclear project after being attacked by Israel and the United States [2]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei that efforts should be made to expand domestic demand, boost consumption, and accelerate the construction of a new model for real - estate development [2]. - In May, the crude - steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 159 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% [2]. 3.7 Profit Situation - **Manganese - Silicon**: The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 140 yuan/ton; the spot profit in Ningxia was - 280 yuan/ton [2]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 360 yuan/ton; the spot profit in Ningxia was - 320 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - No clear core viewpoint is presented in the provided content. It mainly contains price, supply, demand, inventory, and cost - profit data of ferroalloys such as ferrosilicon and ferromanganese. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Price - For ferrosilicon on June 26, 2025, the spot price of Ningxia 72 was 5100 yuan, unchanged daily and up 50 yuan weekly; the main contract price was 5374 yuan, up 86 yuan daily and 84 yuan weekly. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1020 US dollars, unchanged daily and down 35 US dollars weekly [2]. - For ferromanganese on June 26, 2025, the ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5500 yuan, unchanged daily and up 20 yuan weekly; the main contract price was 5654 yuan, up 98 yuan daily and 98 yuan weekly [2]. Supply - Data on the production volume, capacity utilization rate, and start - up rate of 136 ferrosilicon production enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including monthly production volume, weekly production volume (with a capacity share of 95%), and monthly capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - Data on the production volume and start - up rate of ferromanganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, such as weekly production volume and the start - up rate of ferromanganese enterprises [6]. Demand - Data on the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including the estimated production volume of crude steel in China, the demand for ferromanganese in China (according to the Steel Union's caliber), and the procurement volume and price of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6][7]. Inventory - Data on the inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including weekly inventory in China and in regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5]. - Data on the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in China, the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [7]. Cost - Profit - Data on the cost and profit of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including electricity prices in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, the market price of semi - coke, the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, and the profit of ferromanganese in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions [5][7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View The report focuses on the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon markets, stating that the market is subject to macro - emotional disturbances and shows wide - range fluctuations. The trend intensities of both ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon are rated as 1, indicating a neutral view [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Ferrosilicon 2508 closed at 5408, with a change of 82 compared to the previous trading day, and a trading volume of 21,115 and an open interest of 32,649. Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5374, up 86, with a trading volume of 178,400 and an open interest of 226,267. - Manganese - silicon 2508 closed at 5652, up 102, with a trading volume of 28,610 and an open interest of 24,163. Manganese - silicon 2509 closed at 5654, up 98, with a trading volume of 327,757 and an open interest of 401,426 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5100 yuan/ton; the price of ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 37.5 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.5 compared to the previous trading day; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 580 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Differences**: - The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 08 futures) was - 308 yuan/ton, down 82; the basis of manganese - silicon (spot - 09 futures) was - 154 yuan/ton, down 98. - The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2508 - 2509 was 34 yuan/ton, down 4; the near - far month spread of manganese - silicon 2508 - 2509 was - 8 yuan/ton, up 4. - The cross - variety spread of manganese - silicon 2508 - ferrosilicon 2508 was 244 yuan/ton, up 20; the cross - variety spread of manganese - silicon 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 was 280 yuan/ton, up 12 [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Spot Price Information**: On June 25, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5000 - 5100 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton (with an increase of 50 yuan/ton in Gansu). The price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. The price of 6517 ferromanganese in the north was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton, and in the south, due to tight supply, it was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton [2]. - **Procurement Information**: Ningbo Iron and Steel set the ferromanganese procurement price at 5700 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory) on the 24th, up 50 yuan/ton from last month, with a procurement volume of 750 tons. Jianlong Group's ferrosilicon (72) procurement prices in different regions were: 5380 yuan/ton (550 tons) in Hebei, 5500 yuan/ton (410 tons) in Jilin, 5580 yuan/ton (400 tons) in Heilongjiang, and 5350 yuan/ton (400 tons) in Shanxi. A steel mill in Sichuan set the ferrosilicon procurement price at 5660 yuan/ton today [2][3]. - **Production Information**: In June, there were 3 ferrosilicon enterprises in production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Chongqing, with 6 submerged arc furnaces in operation. The ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate in June was 40%, the same as in May, and the expected output was 0.78 million tons, also the same as in May, with a capacity utilization rate of 30% [3].