Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed positive performance, with glass futures main contract opening at 1252.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 1282.00 CNY, marking a 3.81% increase [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a notice regarding the "Construction Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", emphasizing strict control over cement and glass production capacity, prohibiting new capacity for cement clinker and flat glass [1] - As of September 18, the float glass industry maintained an operating rate of 76.01% and a capacity utilization rate of 80.08%, with a stable daily output of 160,200 tons [1] Group 2 - Huawen Futures indicated that as the National Day holiday approaches, downstream enterprises are concerned about price increases post-holiday, leading to passive inventory replenishment, which is expected to boost spot transaction volume and reinforce price increase expectations [1] - Zhongcai Futures noted that supply remains stable with limited changes in production capacity, while demand is driven by policy pushing up raw glass prices, leading to increased purchasing intentions from downstream sectors [2] - The market is currently experiencing a mix of price stability and upward adjustments in various regions, with expectations of a short-term price trend that is likely to be strong and volatile [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has released a work plan aimed at stabilizing growth in the building materials industry from 2025 to 2026, focusing on capacity control, supply-demand coordination, and promoting technological innovation and green transformation [1][2]. Capacity Control - The plan emphasizes strict control over cement and glass production capacity, prohibiting new capacity for cement clinker and flat glass, and requiring capacity replacement plans for new or modified projects [2][3]. - Analysts note that the national cement price index is at a low since 2019, with declining real estate and infrastructure investments leading to weak demand for cement and glass. The plan aims to reverse the downward price pressure by controlling new supply [2][3]. Industry Management - Specific measures include prohibiting the transfer of cement clinker and flat glass capacity from non-key air pollution prevention areas to key areas, and requiring cement companies to align actual capacity with registered capacity by the end of 2025 [3]. - The plan encourages the elimination of outdated production capacity based on quality, environmental, energy consumption, and safety standards, promoting the exit of low-performing companies [3]. Profitability Enhancement - The plan aims to improve the profitability of the building materials industry, with expectations for a recovery in the sector and an increase in technological innovation capabilities from 2025 to 2026. It targets green building materials revenue to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2026 [4]. - Recent data shows that 73 listed building materials companies generated 305.5 billion yuan in revenue but only 11.8 billion yuan in net profit in the first half of 2025, indicating significant pressure on profitability [4]. - The shift in policy focus from scale to quality and efficiency is expected to foster a virtuous cycle of innovation and profitability, encouraging companies to invest more in research and development [4]. Industry Transition - Industry experts believe that the building materials sector can transition from a focus on quantity to quality by reducing inefficient capacity and promoting technological innovation, especially in light of ongoing reductions in real estate investment and slowing infrastructure growth [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Low-level operation" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is oscillating. The downstream situation remains weak, and the price is consolidating at a low level. Attention should be paid to weekly fundamental changes [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Information Policy Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to strictly control cement and glass production capacity and prohibit the addition of cement clinker and flat glass production capacity [1] Production and Inventory Data - In mid-September, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.073 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from the previous period. The steel inventory was 15.29 million tons, a decrease of 530,000 tons (3.4%) from the previous ten-day period [1] Cost and Profit Data - This week, the average tax-excluded hot metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,228 yuan/ton, and the average tax-included billet cost was 2,986 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex-factory price of 3,030 yuan/ton on September 24, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 44 yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 25 yuan/ton [1] Market Performance - Yesterday, finished products oscillated and rebounded, driven by the rise of coking coal and glass in the afternoon [1] Factors to Watch - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions are the factors to watch in the later stage [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on black building materials dated September 25, 2025, covering various commodities such as steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash [1][2] Group 2: Market Quotes Steel - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,164 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.285%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 263,806 tons, a decrease of 3,584 tons. The main contract open interest was 1.882224 million lots, an increase of 812 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,357 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.508%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 34,559 tons, a decrease of 292 tons. The main contract open interest was 1.367761 million lots, an increase of 668 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] Iron Ore - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.12% (+1.00). The open interest changed by -7,511 lots to 539,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 856,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 39.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.72% [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On September 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) continued a small rebound, closing up 0.58% at 5,916 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 74 yuan/ton over the futures [9] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) also continued to rebound, closing up 0.77% at 5,742 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 58 yuan/ton over the futures [9] Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 9,020 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.06% (+95). The weighted contract open interest changed by -1,424 lots to 508,298 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 180 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of -120 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [12] Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,380 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.23% (+1,120). The weighted contract open interest changed by -2,089 lots to 250,365 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N-type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N-type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg, with a basis of 1,120 yuan/ton for the main contract [15] Glass - On Wednesday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1,237 yuan/ton, up 4.56% (+54). The price of large plates in North China was 1,160 yuan, up 10 from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,150 yuan, up 10. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million boxes, a decrease of 675,000 boxes (-1.10%). In terms of open interest, the top 20 long positions increased by 94,955 lots, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 43,450 lots [18] Soda Ash - On Wednesday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1,307 yuan/ton, up 2.67% (+34). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,217 yuan, up 34. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 41,900 tons (-1.10%), including 1.0061 million tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 28,400 tons, and 749,500 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 13,500 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long positions decreased by 2,046 lots, and the top 20 short positions increased by 23,979 lots [20] Group 3: Strategy Views Steel - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Macroscopically, the central bank will maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools. In terms of exports, the volume increased slightly last week but remained weak. Fundamentally, rebar production declined, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure eased marginally; hot-rolled coil production increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot-rolled coil is weak, and the peak-season demand is not strong. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, rebar demand remains weak, and hot-rolled coil, although having some resilience, is still weak overall. Steel mill profits are gradually narrowing, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face downward risk. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [3] Iron Ore - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month. The shipments from Australia declined from a high level, and the shipments of the three major mainstream mines all decreased to varying degrees. The shipments from Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non-mainstream countries also decreased month-on-month. The nearby arrivals increased month-on-month. In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron production was 241.02 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons, with both blast furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability rate of steel mills has been declining for several weeks. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased significantly. Some inventory may continue to be transferred to the plant before the National Day. In terms of terminal data, the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to increase, and the inventory slope slowed down. The apparent demand for rebar increased, and inventory decreased slightly. Currently, the pressure on the raw material end from downstream still needs to be observed. Fundamentally, short-term pig iron production remains strong, and before steel mills reduce production, iron ore prices still have support. Macroscopically, after the China-US presidential call, the market sentiment is relatively positive; the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" continues to increase the supply and price stability of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal, reducing the impact of speculative sentiment on prices. Overall, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and the inventory depletion speed [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot plot shows that there may be two more rate cuts this year, indicating that the US has officially entered an interest rate cut cycle. Although the rate cut was in line with expectations, Powell's statement was hawkish, leading to a significant decline in non-ferrous metal prices, and the Wenhua Commodity Index also returned to a volatile state. However, the black sector continued to strengthen. On the one hand, overseas interest rate cuts have created room for domestic policy implementation, enhancing the market's expectation of future economic stimulus; on the other hand, the "anti-involution" sentiment has resurfaced recently, driving the raw material end such as coking coal and ferroalloys to perform relatively actively. However, with the approaching of the peak season and the downstream's need to replenish inventory before the National Day holiday, the actual demand is still relatively weak, especially in the building materials sector, where the demand has not shown peak-season characteristics. Steel mills are still maintaining high-intensity production driven by profits, and pig iron production continues to remain above 2.4 million tons. High supply and relatively weak demand have led to a continuous inverse seasonal accumulation of steel inventory, putting pressure on prices in reality [10] - In the short term, affected by the real demand, the black sector may face a downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, the statement of the high-level that "China still has sufficient fiscal policy space," and the opening of domestic policy space after the US enters the interest rate cut cycle, the black sector may gradually become more cost-effective for long positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid-October. Compared with the short-term correction risk, looking for long opportunities after the price pullback may be a better choice [11] - In the case of manganese silicon, its fundamentals are still not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, it is observed that the port inventory of manganese ore has been at a low level recently, and the price of manganese ore has been relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens according to the above logic, attention should be paid to whether there are any sudden disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may become the driving force for manganese silicon to launch its own market. Otherwise, it is expected that manganese silicon will be difficult to have an independent strong market in the absence of major contradictions and will follow the black sector market [11] - For ferrosilicon, there are no obvious contradictions and driving forces in its supply and demand fundamentals, and it is also likely to follow the black sector market, with relatively low operation cost-effectiveness [11] Industrial Silicon - The sentiment in the commodity market improved yesterday, and the industrial silicon futures rebounded. From the perspective of the futures price trend, the price has experienced short-term sharp fluctuations and is relatively unstable, so risk control should be noted. Looking back at the fundamentals, there have been no significant changes in the supply and demand of industrial silicon. After several weeks of continuous growth, the production has slowed down for the first time, but the weekly production is still at a relatively high level close to the same period last year. In the downstream, the current operating rate of polysilicon is relatively high since the industry's self-discipline production control. Whether the high-operating-rate enterprises will start to reduce production in the future is uncertain, but in the short term, it can still support the demand for industrial silicon. The production of organic silicon DMC continues to be at a high level compared to the same period. The explicit inventory of industrial silicon is generally at a high level, and the marginal depletion amplitude is limited. Compared with downstream polysilicon, the relative valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the polysilicon futures price has been running at a relatively high level for a long time, providing upward room for the price of industrial silicon; at the same time, the "anti-involution" policy leaves room for price improvement in the future. However, for the price to be strongly supported, fundamental improvement is still required. In the short term, the market is affected by capital sentiment, with rapid entry and exit, and the futures price returns to a volatile state. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the improvement of supply and demand and policy changes [13][14] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price continues to be dominated by policy narratives, and the short-term market focus remains on the capacity integration policy and the downstream price pass-through progress. Fundamentally, some of the previous inventory has been transferred to the downstream of the industrial chain, and the de-stocking space for the entire industry is limited, which depends on the maintenance situation of the current high-operating-rate enterprises. In terms of price, the previous spot price increase was relatively smooth in the middle and front of the downstream, but there is still a stalemate in the component link, indicating that the actual terminal demand has not significantly improved. Currently, the establishment time of the platform company is uncertain, and the announcements of listed silicon enterprises also show that the expected verification cannot be asserted. However, before the final implementation and when there are obstacles in the component link price pass-through, the futures price may experience a phased decline due to the lack of actual progress for a long time. In the short term, the polysilicon price will continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of decline if the expectations are not fulfilled as scheduled. The intraday price of polysilicon fluctuates greatly and changes rapidly, so attention should be paid to position and risk control, and attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark for the main contract. At the same time, the authenticity of sudden news should be carefully verified [16] Glass - In the afternoon, six departments issued a document to strictly prohibit the addition of flat glass production capacity and strengthen capacity replacement requirements. At the same time, some enterprises announced price increases for glass spot, boosting the futures price to a short-term high. However, the overall terminal demand is still weak, and downstream procurement is cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. In terms of supply, the adjustment of production lines is limited, and the market supply is relatively abundant. Enterprises mostly maintain stable prices for sales, and actual transactions are flexibly adjusted. The regional inventory performance shows obvious differentiation, with good de-stocking effects in East, Central, South, and Northwest China, while North and Southwest China still face certain inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy trends, and the short-term view is relatively bullish [19] Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable, with local narrow fluctuations and limited overall price changes. In terms of production, the operation of the devices is generally stable, and the load of individual enterprises is adjusted. Among them, the Shandong Haitian device has resumed production, and Tongbai Haijing also plans to gradually resume production in the near future, and the industry output is expected to increase slightly. The demand side shows a flat performance, and downstream enterprises still replenish inventory on an as-needed basis, and most transactions revolve around low-priced goods. Overall, it is expected that the short-term soda ash market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with limited price fluctuation range [21][23]

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Glass Futures Soar: Uptrend under Multiple Expectations" - Report Date: September 25, 2025 - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the sharp rise of glass futures was the result of the resonance of policy expectations, marginal improvement in supply and demand, and sector linkage. The policy has become the core driving force, and the supply - demand side shows positive signals. The strong performance of photovoltaic glass has a driving effect, and investors should seize long - position opportunities [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures - The sharp rise on September 24 was due to policy expectations, supply - demand improvement, and sector linkage. Policy support includes strict capacity control in the building materials industry and real - estate support policies. Supply - demand side shows positive signals such as inventory reduction in the main production area, increased enthusiasm of traders, and improved production - sales ratio. The strong performance of photovoltaic glass has boosted the sector [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - It closed with a bare - headed and bare - footed medium阳线. With news such as Alibaba's plan for a 380 billion AI infrastructure construction and Fed's call for faster interest - rate cuts, the market is expected to continue to oscillate upward at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The market is trading the expectation of an interest - rate cut in October. After three days of adjustment, gold rose strongly again, showing obvious strength, and the outlook is bullish [12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The start of restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range, and an oscillatory approach should be adopted [15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Technically, it soared due to news today and should be viewed from an oscillatory perspective. Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventory has declined slightly, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient, and attention should be paid to restocking near the peak season [20][21]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory restricts price increase, and it should be treated with a bearish oscillatory view [24]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - Today, the pulp price in Shandong remained stable, and port inventory started to decline slightly. It is still at a medium - to - high level. There are expectations of improvement before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [28].

Core Insights - The report focuses on Kangnong Agriculture (837403), which specializes in hybrid corn seeds and has integrated breeding, propagation, and promotion since 2017, leading to significant growth in new markets [3][11] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 30.5% and a profit CAGR of 42.1% from 2022 to 2024, driven by the successful launch of its main product, Kangnong Yu 8009 [3][11] - The report highlights the favorable market conditions for high-yield and quality seed varieties, with a predicted stable corn price and strong planting enthusiasm among farmers [3][11] Company Overview - Kangnong Agriculture has established a comprehensive development model that connects breeding, propagation, and promotion, enhancing its market competitiveness [3][11] - The company has successfully entered new markets in the Huanghuaihai summer sowing area and the northern spring sowing area, which have become new growth drivers [3][11] Industry Analysis - The seed market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a supply-demand ratio of 175% expected for the 2024/25 season, indicating a high inventory situation that may take 2-3 years to improve [3][11] - High-quality seed varieties are favored in the market, commanding better premiums, while competition among homogeneous varieties remains intense, leading to price pressures [3][11] Short-term Outlook - For 2025, the company aims to increase revenue while reducing costs, with Kangnong Yu 8009 expected to lead growth [3][11] - The self-propagation model is anticipated to lower costs, with a projected gross margin increase of 1.2-5.0 percentage points in 2025 based on sensitivity analysis [3][11] Long-term Strategy - The company plans to continue expanding its national sales footprint, leveraging its market position in the southwest and introducing diverse product combinations in the Huanghuaihai market [3][11] - Kangnong Agriculture has a robust pipeline of transgenic varieties, with a structured approach to commercialization across different regions [3][11] Investment Rating and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 0.96 billion, 1.23 billion, and 1.50 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 25, 19, and 16 times [3][11] - A target market capitalization of 45 billion is set for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 90% from the closing price on September 25, 2023, with a "Buy" rating assigned [3][11] Catalysts for Stock Performance - Key catalysts include exceeding expectations in contract liabilities for Q3 2025, higher-than-expected sales of Kangnong Yu 8009, and progress in promoting high-protein corn [3][11]

Monetary Policy - The central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on September 25, with a one-year term [1][2]. Digital Economy - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued policies to promote service exports, emphasizing the acceleration of international data service business development [1][2]. - A joint guideline from eight departments encourages the development of digital consumption, urging companies to innovate and increase the supply of AI terminal products [3]. Gaming Industry - The National Press and Publication Administration announced that 145 domestic online games and 11 imported games received approval for publication as of September 2025 [2]. Energy Sector - The China Electricity Council predicts that the national electrification rate will grow steadily at an average annual rate of about 1 percentage point during the 14th Five-Year Plan, reaching around 35% by 2030, exceeding the OECD average by 8-10 percentage points [2]. AI Infrastructure Investment - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, with expectations of a tenfold increase in energy consumption for its global data centers by 2032 [5]. - North American cloud providers, including Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, are expected to invest over 350 billion dollars in AI infrastructure this year, with projections exceeding 400 billion dollars by 2026 [6]. Construction Materials - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released a plan for stable growth in the building materials industry, prohibiting new cement and flat glass production capacity [7]. - The plan aims to optimize supply and demand dynamics, with expectations for cement prices to rise and regional leading enterprises to recover profitability [7]. Company Developments - Guoer Co., Ltd. leads in micro speakers, MEMS acoustic sensors, VR/MR products, AI smart glasses, and other smart wearable devices [4]. - Huayi Group expects a net profit of 340 million to 420 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.81% to 109.77% [8]. - Heng Rui Medicine has reached a milestone payment agreement for its innovative drug project, with potential payments up to 1.093 billion dollars [9]. - PetroChina Oilfield Services signed a contract worth approximately 2.553 billion yuan for an overseas project [10]. - Jicheng Electronics won a bid for a project with the State Grid, totaling approximately 81.836 million yuan [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has released a work plan for the building materials industry aimed at stabilizing growth from 2025 to 2026, focusing on supply-demand coordination, capacity control, and promoting green and digital transformation [1][2]. Group 1: Capacity Control - The plan emphasizes strict control over cement and glass production capacity, prohibiting new capacity for cement clinker and flat glass, and requiring capacity replacement plans for new or modified projects [2][3]. - Analysts note that the national cement price index is at a low since 2019, with declining real estate and infrastructure investments leading to weak demand for cement and glass, making capacity control crucial to reversing price declines [2][3]. - Specific measures include preventing the transfer of cement clinker and flat glass capacity from non-key pollution areas to key pollution areas, and requiring cement companies to align actual capacity with registered capacity by the end of 2025 [3]. Group 2: Profitability Enhancement - The plan aims to improve the profitability of the building materials industry, with expectations for recovery and enhanced innovation capabilities from 2025 to 2026, targeting over 300 billion yuan in revenue from green building materials by 2026 [4]. - Recent data shows that 73 listed building materials companies generated 305.5 billion yuan in revenue but only 11.8 billion yuan in net profit in the first half of 2025, indicating significant pressure on profitability [4]. - The shift in policy focus from scale to quality and efficiency is highlighted, suggesting that improved profitability will enable more investment in research and development, fostering a cycle of innovation and profit [4]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - Industry experts believe that the building materials sector can transition from quantity to quality by reducing inefficient capacity and promoting technological innovation, especially in light of ongoing reductions in real estate investment and slowing infrastructure growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has released a work plan for the construction materials industry aimed at stabilizing growth from 2025 to 2026, focusing on supply-demand coordination, capacity control, and promoting green and digital transformation [1] Group 1: Capacity Control - The plan emphasizes strict control over cement and glass production capacity, prohibiting new capacity for cement clinker and flat glass, and requiring capacity replacement plans for new or modified projects [2][3] - Analysts note that the national cement price index is at a low since 2019, with declining real estate and infrastructure investments leading to weak demand for cement and glass, making capacity control crucial to reversing price declines [2] - Specific measures include preventing the transfer of cement clinker and flat glass capacity from non-pollution areas to pollution control areas, and requiring cement companies to align actual capacity with registered capacity by the end of 2025 [3] Group 2: Profitability Enhancement - The plan aims to improve the profitability of the construction materials industry, with expectations for recovery and enhanced innovation capabilities from 2025 to 2026, targeting over 300 billion yuan in revenue from green building materials by 2026 [4] - Recent data shows that 73 listed construction materials companies generated 305.5 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, with net profits of only 11.8 billion yuan, indicating significant pressure on profitability [4] - The shift in policy focus from scale to quality and efficiency is highlighted, suggesting that improved profitability will enable more investment in research and development, fostering a cycle of innovation and profit [4][5] Group 3: Industry Transformation - The plan indicates a need for the industry to transition from low-efficiency capacity reduction to technological innovation, aiming for a shift from quantity to quality in production [5] - Industry experts believe that the construction materials sector can achieve a transformation by eliminating outdated capacity and promoting technological advancements, especially in light of ongoing reductions in real estate investment and slowing infrastructure growth [5]

Industry Overview - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has issued the "Building Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" which prohibits the addition of new cement clinker and flat glass production capacity [1] - New construction and renovation projects must develop capacity replacement plans, and cement companies are required to establish replacement plans for excess production capacity by the end of 2025 [1] Market Dynamics - Galaxy Securities believes that the "anti-involution" trend will accelerate the optimization of industry supply, alleviating supply-demand conflicts and creating expectations for rising cement prices, with regional leading enterprises likely to see profit recovery [1] - In the medium to long term, cement companies must complete their first compliance work in the carbon market by the end of the year, leading to gradual supply optimization and increased industry concentration, which will benefit leading cement enterprises [1] Company Insights - Tapai Group is identified as a highly competitive regional cement leader in the eastern Guangdong market, with three major production bases in Meizhou, Huizhou, and Longyan, producing 20 million tons of cement annually [1] - Qibin Group ranks second in the industry for float glass production capacity, and holds third place for photovoltaic glass and energy-saving glass production capacity, while also being a leading producer in electronic glass and medicinal glass [1]