Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with Brent in the range of 68 - 70 USD/barrel. Medium - term outlook is bearish due to expected oversupply after the 4th quarter [2]. - Asphalt: The unilateral price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3500 - 3650 [5]. - LPG: The PG price is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are expected to oscillate [9][10]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, but the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - PX: Expected to follow the cost side and oscillate in the short term [13]. - PTA: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with attention to device changes [14]. - Ethylene glycol: Supply is gradually returning, putting pressure on prices, and expected to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate [19]. - PET bottle chips: Expected to follow the raw material side and oscillate and consolidate [23]. - Styrene: Expected to oscillate in the short term due to supply and demand changes [27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a pattern of oversupply, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [30]. - Caustic soda: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - Plastic and PP: Fundamental is weak, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [32]. - Glass: Short - term focus on production and sales, medium - term focus on cost reduction and plant cold - repair [35]. - Soda ash: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with attention to policy trends [38]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [39]. - Urea: Expected to be weak in the short term, with attention to export policies [43]. - Corrugated paper: Overall in a weak pattern, with some price increases expected [44]. - Offset paper: In a situation of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be stable [45]. - Logs: It is recommended to wait and see for the near - month contract, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [52]. - Butadiene rubber: Try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically [55]. - Pulp: Try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract [57]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 closed at 66.38 USD/barrel, down 0.14 USD/barrel (- 0.21%); Brent2509 closed at 68.52 USD/barrel, down 0.19 USD/barrel (- 0.28%); SC main contract 2509 closed at 507 CNY/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump's attitude towards Powell affected the market; the Fed's economic report indicated cost pressure; EIA data showed changes in US oil inventories and production [1]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - narrow - range oscillation; arbitrage - gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; options - wait and see [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3612 points (- 0.14%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3433 points (- 0.17%) at night [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, affected by factors such as demand and supply [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; arbitrage - asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; options - wait and see [6]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 closed at 4072 (- 0.88%) at night; PG2509 closed at 3988 (- 0.77%) at night [6]. - Related News: Prices in different regions had different trends [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.809 (+ 1.06%), HH closed at 3.551 (+ 0.79%), JKM closed at 12.475 (+ 1.42%) [9]. - Related News: US natural gas inventory increased, supply and demand changed [9]. - Trading Strategy: HH unilateral - buy on dips; TTF unilateral - oscillate [10]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 closed at 2855 (- 0.56%) at night; LU09 closed at 3568 (- 2.22%) at night [10]. - Related News: Changes in fuel oil inventories and trading volume [11]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see; arbitrage - wait and see [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6716 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), and 6684 (- 32/- 0.48%) at night [12]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [13]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [13]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4706 (+ 10/+ 0.21%), and 4696 (- 10/- 0.21%) at night [13]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [14]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4351 (+ 29+0.67%), and 4349 (- 2/- 0.05%) at night [16]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales, equipment shutdown [16]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [18]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract closed at 6356 (- 12/- 0.19%) during the day, and 6338 (- 18/- 0.28%) at night [19]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [19]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [21]. PET Bottle Chips - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5886 (+ 16/+ 0.27%), and 5876 (- 10/- 0.17%) at night [20]. - Related News: Stable factory quotes, average market transactions [23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [24]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6166 (+ 22/+ 0.36%) during the day, and 6151 (- 15/- 0.24%) at night; EB2508 main contract closed at 7343 (+ 3/+ 0.04%) during the day, and 7304 (- 39/- 0.53%) at night [24]. - Related News: Changes in port inventories, equipment shutdown [24]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC prices declined, and caustic soda prices were stable [27][30]. - Related News: Changes in PVC and caustic soda inventories, new device production expectations [30]. - Trading Strategy: PVC - bearish in the medium and short term; caustic soda - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [31]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: LLDPE prices declined in some regions, and PP prices had slight changes [32]. - Related News: Changes in maintenance ratios [32]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - bearish in the medium and short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [33]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1070 CNY/ton (- 1/- 0.09%), and 1078 CNY/ton (+ 8/+ 0.75%) at night [34]. - Related News: Market conditions in different regions, changes in deep - processing orders [34]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - pay attention to logical conversion; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [36]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1208 CNY/ton (- 6/- 0.5%), and 1215 CNY/ton (+ 7/+ 0.6%) at night [37]. - Related News: Equipment operation, price trends [38]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - prices are expected to be strong, pay attention to policy trends; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [38]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures closed at 2362 (- 14/- 0.59%) at night [39]. - Related News: Changes in production enterprise signing volume [39]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures oscillated and closed at 1733 (+ 2/+ 0.12%) [40]. - Related News: Changes in production and inventory, new Indian tender prices [43]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - sell call options on rebounds [44]. Corrugated Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable with some increases, cost and demand situations [44]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Offset Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable, supply and demand situations [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Logs - Related News: Price changes, project funds, and market conditions [47]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for the near - month contract; arbitrage - pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options - wait and see [49]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract closed at 14525 (+ 25/+ 0.17%); NR main 09 contract closed at 12485 (- 5/- 0.04%) [49]. - Related News: Changes in export and consumption data [51]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for RU and NR main contracts; arbitrage - hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread; options - wait and see [52]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR main 09 contract closed at 11405 (- 45/- 0.39%) [53]. - Related News: Changes in production and shipping index [55]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [55]. Pulp - Market Review: SP main 09 contract closed at 5242, unchanged from the previous day [55]. - Related News: New product launch by Starbucks [56]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [57].

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" theme has gained significant attention in the A-share market, with various sectors such as steel, photovoltaic, and building materials experiencing substantial growth due to policy-driven changes aimed at reducing disorderly competition [3][5][10]. Market Performance - As of July 17, A-shares opened lower but quickly turned positive, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1%, led by sectors like innovative drugs, PCB, consumer goods, and photovoltaics [1]. - In the past month, the photovoltaic equipment index increased by 15.55%, while the overall market saw nearly 3,000 stocks rise [7][9]. Sector Analysis - The "anti-involution" theme has led to significant gains in various sectors, with the steel, building materials, and electric equipment industries seeing increases of over 8% in the last 18 trading days [2]. - Key indices reflecting this trend include the circuit board index up by 3.74%, and the glass fiber index up by 20.21% [2][9]. Policy Impact - The Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1 emphasized the need to build a unified national market and regulate low-price competition, which is expected to guide the "anti-involution" policy across key industries [5][10]. - The current phase of the "anti-involution" market is characterized as a policy-driven expectation stage, with potential for further development depending on the implementation of policies and capacity clearance [3][18]. Investment Opportunities - Investment firms are increasingly focusing on sectors involved in the "anti-involution" theme, particularly those with historically low valuations and significant potential for recovery [12][13]. - Key sectors identified for investment include traditional industries like steel and cement, as well as emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [10][16]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" market could evolve through three stages: initial policy-driven expectations, followed by resource price increases, and finally, sustained high prices [3][18]. - The current market is still in the expectation phase, and future developments will depend on the effectiveness of policy implementation and the recovery of corporate profits [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with a blast furnace operating rate year-on-year at 0.7% [2][5][8] - Chemical production shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3%, respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, up by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the national grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to -3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, up by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8%, respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9%, respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a migration scale index down by 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8%, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6][9][12][15] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to decent June macro data and un - expected central urban work conference statements, the market anticipates a correction, with a cautious mindset. The iron ore is strong, supporting the price center of the sector. Steel and coking coal are lackluster, and the valuation repair from the basis perspective has temporarily reached its limit. The terminal demand verification point hasn't arrived, and the macro trend dominates the off - season market, expected to oscillate at high levels [1][2] - The overall market rally stimulates mid - stream inventory building, creating a positive feedback for the industry chain. The macro - favorable expectations have cooled, and future focus will be on policy implementation and off - season terminal demand performance [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - **Iron Element**: Overseas mine shipments slightly decreased, 45 - port arrivals increased as expected. Steel mills' profitability is good, and small - sample steel mill hot metal production rose, remaining at a high year - on - year level. Due to concentrated arrivals, some ports had increased congestion, leading to a slight decline in port inventories. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market price oscillates strongly [2] - **Carbon Element**: Some previously - overhauled coal mines in major production areas are resuming production, but there are still production restrictions due to overhauls and underground issues. The overall supply has not returned to previous highs. On the import side, the China - Mongolia port has resumed customs clearance, but the Mongolian Naadam holiday lasts until the 17th, and customs clearance may remain low. Coke production has slightly decreased, but there is still rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream is actively restocking, and some coal types are in short supply. The first round of price increases for coke is expected to be implemented on Thursday [3] - **Alloys**: Manganese ore prices are temporarily stable, but port inventories have slightly increased. The cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future has significant downward potential, and the support for ore prices is insufficient. The supply of manganese silicon has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is resilient. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened, and the supply may increase in the future. The downstream demand for steel products remains stable at a relatively high level [3] - **Glass**: In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand is weakening. Although there was good sales at the beginning of the month, its sustainability is questionable. There are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is on the rise. Upstream inventories are slightly decreasing, and market sentiment has a large impact. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and manufacturers have raised prices. The market is expected to oscillate [6] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The market expects a significant reduction in photovoltaic daily melting, and heavy - soda demand is flat. Light - soda downstream demand is weak, and manufacturers are continuously reducing prices. Emotions are interfering with the market, and the long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities [6][15] 2. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The central urban work conference's statements were not unexpected, and the subsequent policy - stimulus expectations have cooled. The crude steel output in the first six months decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, with limited subsequent production - reduction pressure. The spot market transactions are generally weak, and the market is expected to oscillate at high levels [9] - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments slightly decreased, and port arrivals increased. Steel mills' profitability is good, and hot metal production rose. Due to concentrated arrivals, some ports had increased congestion, leading to a slight decline in port inventories. The market price oscillates strongly, and before the market sentiment weakens, prices are likely to rise rather than fall [2][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel slightly increased, but the daily consumption decreased. The factory inventory slightly decreased. The fundamentals are stable, and the price is expected to oscillate [10] - **Coke**: Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, but some are affected by profit pressure. The first round of price increases is expected to be implemented on Thursday. The downstream steel mills have good profits, are actively producing and restocking. The futures are at a significant premium, and the coke enterprise inventory is continuously decreasing. The market expects a second - round price increase, and the market is expected to oscillate [10][13] - **Coking Coal**: Some coal mines in major production areas are resuming production, but overall supply has not returned to previous highs. The China - Mongolia port has resumed customs clearance, but customs clearance may remain low. The downstream has rigid demand for coking coal and is actively restocking. The coal mine inventory is decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate [3][13] - **Glass**: The off - season demand is declining, and deep - processing orders are decreasing. There are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is increasing. Upstream inventories are slightly decreasing. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and manufacturers have raised prices. The market is expected to oscillate [14] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The heavy - soda demand is flat, and the light - soda downstream demand is weak. Manufacturers are continuously reducing prices. The long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change, and enterprises are advised to seize short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long run [6][15] - **Silicon Manganese**: After the central urban work conference, the macro - stimulus policy fell short of expectations, and the manganese silicon market oscillated weakly. The cost support has strengthened, the supply has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks, and the downstream demand is resilient. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and prices will face pressure in the long run [18] - **Ferrosilicon**: The macro - stimulus policy fell short of expectations, and the ferrosilicon price declined weakly. The cost has decreased, and the supply may increase in the future. The downstream demand is resilient. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and prices will face pressure in the long run [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a weak and oscillating trend. The market's expectation of "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" has failed. The static fundamental contradictions are not obvious at present, and the market still needs to pay attention to further policy signals, especially the policy trends of the Politburo meeting at the end of July. At the same time, it is necessary to track the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [3]. - The short - term trend of iron ore prices is strong with oscillations, and attention should be paid to risk control after increased fluctuations. In the future, it is necessary to focus on changes in market sentiment and the macro - realization nodes [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment and expectations. It is recommended to rationally treat the current market in speculation and pay attention to price fluctuation risks. The industrial side can consider hedging operations [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. It is recommended that speculators be rational, and the industrial side can carry out hedging operations [14][15]. - The short - term price of glass is mainly oscillating and strong, and it is recommended to avoid short positions and wait and see in the medium term. The short - term price of soda ash rebounds due to market sentiment, but the fundamental supply - demand contradiction still exists in the medium term, and the trend is expected to be weak [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 96,689 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main contract position was 2.137057 million lots, a decrease of 16,795 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 62,501 tons, a decrease of 2086 tons. The main contract position was 1.549973 million lots, a decrease of 16,803 lots [2]. - **Market Conditions**: The market atmosphere was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished products oscillated weakly. The "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" expectation has failed. The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory reduction accelerated; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory increased slightly, which is in line with seasonal characteristics. The inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at a low level in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 773.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.78% (+6.00), and the position increased by 21,689 lots to 690,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1.1402 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 758 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.95% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable in the latest period. Australia's shipment continued to decline due to port maintenance, Brazil's shipment increased significantly, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly. The near - end arrival volume continued to increase. The daily average pig iron output decreased to 2.3981 million tons. The port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory continued to increase [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices**: On July 16, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated slightly lower, closing down 0.59% at 5750 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 140 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) oscillated lower in the morning and accelerated its decline in the afternoon, closing down 1.57% at 5408 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5450 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 42 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the market is driven by sentiment and expectations. The fundamental situation points downward, with an over - supplied industrial pattern, weakening future demand, and downward adjustment space for the cost of manganese ore and electricity [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices**: On July 16, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) oscillated lower, closing down 1.14% at 8685 yuan/ton. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 265 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. The industrial silicon still faces problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe on Wednesday was 1164 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.983 million weight boxes (-2.87%) from the previous period. The short - term price is mainly oscillating and strong, and it is recommended to avoid short positions and wait and see in the medium term [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1195 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.884 million tons, an increase of 20,600 tons (1.11%) from the previous week. The demand is still weak, and the supply is loose in the medium term, with large inventory pressure. The short - term price rebounds due to market sentiment, but the trend is expected to be weak in the medium term [18].

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of the glass industry in Shahe, Hebei Province, showcases the evolution from a small workshop to a modern industrial cluster, highlighting China's manufacturing upgrade and the development of new productive forces [1][4]. Industry Development - The Shahe glass industry has evolved from producing low-end building glass using recycled materials to adopting advanced technologies like float glass production, significantly enhancing efficiency and reducing energy consumption [3][4]. - Currently, Shahe produces 20% of the national glass output, with over 600 deep processing enterprises and more than 1,000 product varieties, establishing itself as one of the largest glass industry hubs in China [4]. Technological Innovation - The industry has embraced automation and intelligent production, with companies like Dejin Glass implementing unmanned operations and real-time monitoring systems to enhance production efficiency [2][3]. - The focus on high-end, intelligent, and green production has led to the establishment of advanced production lines for automotive glass and other high-tech applications, breaking foreign technology monopolies [3][4]. Futures Market Impact - The introduction of glass futures has enabled local enterprises to manage risks associated with seasonal price fluctuations and inventory challenges, transitioning from passive to proactive risk management strategies [5][6][7]. - The futures market has become an essential tool for over 80% of glass production capacity in Shahe, facilitating better resource allocation and production planning [8]. Collaborative Efforts - The glass industry in Shahe has developed a collaborative ecosystem where production, trade, and processing enterprises work together to utilize futures for risk management, enhancing overall industry resilience [8][9]. - Future initiatives will focus on integrating price management, financial circulation, and technological upgrades to further advance the industry's transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green production [8][9].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate maintaining at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The chemical production chain shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3% respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, up by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the nationwide grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to 3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, up by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with transaction volumes up by 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8% respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9% respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][30]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate data continues to bottom out, while infrastructure investment is expected to gain momentum in the second half of 2025 [11][17]. - Cement and glass production showed a slight narrowing in decline, with cement production down 4.3% year-on-year and glass production down 5.2% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [6][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Cement and Glass Production - In the first half of 2025, national cement production decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with a monthly decline of 5.3% in June, slightly better than the 8.1% decline in May [6][9]. - National glass production saw a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% in the first half of 2025, with a monthly decline of 4.5% in June, also showing improvement from May's 5.7% decline [9][12]. Downstream Investment Situation - In June 2025, the year-on-year changes in commodity housing sales, construction, new starts, and completion areas were -6.5%, 4.8%, -9.5%, and -2.2%, respectively, indicating a narrowing decline in new starts and completions compared to May [11][12]. - The broad inventory de-stocking cycle in June 2025 was 5.31 years, unchanged from the previous month [14]. - Real estate investment and infrastructure investment in June 2025 showed year-on-year changes of -12.4% and 5.3%, respectively, with real estate investment's decline widening [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Glass and Soda Ash - Yesterday, the soda ash futures market sentiment weakened, with the 09 contract dropping about 30 points. Although the overall market sentiment had improved earlier, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains in surplus, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to watch for opportunities to short on rebounds [1]. - The glass futures market sentiment declined yesterday, while the spot market remained strong. Currently, it is the off - season, and the industry needs capacity clearance. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Logs - Yesterday, the log futures market fluctuated slightly stronger. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand due to the off - season for demand and seasonal reduction in supply from New Zealand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 150 - 200 yuan/ton, and the futures price rose by 90 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline due to the increase in warehouse receipts [3]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price increased. There is still room for the futures price to catch up with the spot price. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and there are both positive and negative factors. Attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [4]. Natural Rubber - The natural rubber price rebounded due to macro - sentiment, but the fundamental situation is still weak. It is recommended to short at the price range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to raw material supply and US tariff changes [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in Central China increased by 30 yuan/ton with a 2.80% increase. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 1.35% and 2.81% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.53% [1]. - Soda Ash: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 0.53% and 2.06% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.95% [1]. Supply - Soda ash: The operating rate and weekly output remained unchanged. The float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 2.87%, while soda ash factory inventory and delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.98% and 4.39% respectively. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures: The 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts increased slightly, while the 2507 contract decreased slightly. The basis of the 09, 11, and 01 contracts decreased [2]. - Spot prices: The prices of most spot logs remained unchanged, except for a 1.39% decrease in the price of 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port [2]. Supply - Monthly supply: Port shipments increased by 2.12%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 8.62% [2]. Inventory - Weekly inventory: The national inventory decreased by 0.31%, with a 1.66% decrease in Shandong and a 1.93% increase in Jiangsu [2]. Demand - Weekly demand: The daily average outbound volume decreased by 12% nationwide, with a 9% decrease in Shandong and a 14% decrease in Jiangsu [2]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - passed S15530 and Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon increased, while the basis of some varieties decreased [3]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2508 - 2509, 2509 - 2510, and 2512 - 2601 increased significantly, while the spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national output and operating rate decreased, while the output and operating rate in Yunnan and Sichuan increased. In May, the output of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy increased [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 17.46%, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.34% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of N - type granular silicon decreased slightly, and the basis of N - type and cauliflower - type decreased [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract increased by 1.69%. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The output of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. Monthly: The polysilicon output increased, and the import and export volumes changed [4]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.47%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.67% [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The prices of some rubber varieties increased slightly, and the basis and non - standard spread changed [5]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.69%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 16.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the output in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the domestic tire output decreased slightly. The tire export volume increased [5]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory increased slightly, and the warehouse receipt inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly [5].