9月份多数规模养殖场出栏积极性仍或不减，且支撑价格冲高的二次育肥入场亦或更为谨慎；从需求端 来看，9月份学校开学略有提振，批发市场、商超、直营店订单量或环比微增，但不及供应增幅。 春节过后，白条猪肉价格整体震荡回落。截至8月21日，8月全国白条猪肉市场月度平均成交价为17.72 元／公斤，环比下跌4.77%，同比下跌32.10%。分析来看，供过于求是导致猪肉价格走弱的主要原因。 国内白条猪肉价格在春节过后持续震荡回落，虽在6月短暂小幅上涨，但自7月以来便再度转跌。究其原 因，养殖场降重出栏且二育入场积极性降低，叠加高温抑制终端需求，共同导致了猪肉价格承压下行。 展望9月份，整体来看，猪肉市场仍有可能处于供大于求的状态，价格或继续偏弱。 另外从季节性指数看，9月份需求端亦呈现季节性下滑走势，利空猪肉价格。 综合分析，9月份猪肉市场仍或处于供大于求的状态，价格或继续偏弱。 （文章来源：新华财经） 展望后市，从供应端来看，9月份多数规模养殖场出栏积极性仍或不减，且支撑价格冲高的二次育肥入 场亦或更为谨慎；同时根据卓创资讯监测显示，截止到8月21日，全国重点屠宰企业月度收购体重为 124.01公斤，同比仅下滑0.19 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a bull run, with major indices showing strong performance, yet retail investors are largely absent from this rally, participating at only one-third of their levels during previous market peaks in 2015 and 2022 [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a nearly ten-year high after surpassing 3700 points, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [5]. - Institutional investors, including the "national team," have injected over one trillion yuan into the market, while public funds have seen a resurgence with the emergence of "doubling funds" after three years [5]. - Quantitative funds have also performed well, with an average profit of nearly 2 billion yuan per fund among 36 large quantitative funds [5]. Group 2: Retail Investor Sentiment - Retail investors currently hold over one-third of the market shares and account for 70% of trading volume, yet their participation remains low compared to previous bull markets [6]. - Many retail investors are hesitant to enter the market, with some recounting past experiences of significant losses during previous peaks, leading to a cautious approach despite the current bullish trend [6][11]. - The article highlights various personal stories of retail investors, illustrating their struggles and the psychological barriers they face in the current market environment [7][10][14][19][25]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Some retail investors have adapted their strategies to focus on risk management and disciplined trading, with a shift towards low-risk investments and diversified portfolios [25][28]. - The importance of maintaining a balanced investment approach is emphasized, with suggestions to allocate only a portion of funds to the stock market to mitigate risks [26][28]. - The article also discusses the need for retail investors to recognize market trends and adjust their strategies accordingly, rather than sticking to outdated methods [16][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is cautious and bearish for both the pig and egg markets [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the pig market, future supply - side pressure will persist, and if the consumption side recovers, the supply - side slaughter volume will increase synchronously. Supply is expected to remain high until March next year. The fourth - quarter consumption and secondary fattening can support prices, and if frozen products increase significantly, prices may drop to near the cost price [2] - For the egg market, it has entered the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period. Although there are factors such as difficult egg storage and cautious purchasing by traders, overall demand is increasing. Spot prices are expected to fluctuate upwards, but attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage egg outflows on the spot market [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 13,765 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of outer three - yuan live pigs was 13.60 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.09 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 13.87 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.02 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.55 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.00 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 20.03 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday. Beef rose 0.4%, mutton rose 0.1%, eggs rose 1.4%, and white - striped chickens fell 0.6% [1] Market Analysis - Supply pressure will continue. Based on the breeding sow data, the supply is expected to remain high until March next year. Fourth - quarter consumption and secondary fattening can support prices, and a significant increase in frozen products may lead to price drops to near the cost price [2] Strategy - Cautious and bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3010 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 62.00 yuan (- 2.02%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.24 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 2.64 yuan/jin. On August 21, the national production - link inventory was 0.77 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.1 days, both unchanged from yesterday [3][4] Market Analysis - It has entered the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period. Although there are factors such as difficult egg storage and cautious purchasing by traders, overall demand is increasing. Spot prices are expected to fluctuate upwards, but attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage egg outflows on the spot market [5] Strategy - Cautious and bearish [6]

Core Insights - The recent increase in pork supply due to hot summer weather and seasonal consumption weakness has led to a slight decline in live pig prices [1] - The national average pig-to-grain price ratio has dropped below 6:1, entering the third-level warning zone [1] - To stabilize the live pig market, the National Development and Reform Commission will collaborate with relevant departments to initiate the central frozen pork reserve collection [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Western Securities indicates a significant year-on-year increase in the hog output of listed pig companies in July 2025, but a seasonal demand weakness and policy adjustments have led to a month-on-month decline. Despite the growth in output, the drop in hog prices has negatively impacted revenue, resulting in an overall industry revenue decline of 6.64% month-on-month [1][2]. Group 1: Output and Performance - The hog output of listed pig companies in July 2025 reached 15.5382 million heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.36% but a month-on-month decrease of 4.59% [1]. - Among leading companies, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe reported hog outputs of 6.355 million, 3.1648 million, and 1.3025 million heads respectively, with year-on-year changes of +13.02%, +36.22%, and +3.21%, while month-on-month changes were -9.46%, +5.24%, and -2.07% [1]. - The cumulative output from January to July 2025 for listed pig companies was 110 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.97% [1]. Group 2: Revenue Analysis - The operating revenue of listed pig companies in July 2025 was 24.647 billion yuan, down 9.85% year-on-year and 6.64% month-on-month [2]. - Leading companies reported July sales revenues of 11.639 billion, 4.877 billion, and 1.802 billion yuan for Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.41%, -8.72%, and -24.63% [2]. - The cumulative revenue from January to July 2025 for listed pig companies was 180.473 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.77% [2]. Group 3: Price Trends - The average selling price of hogs for listed companies in July increased by 1.90% month-on-month but decreased by 22.35% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling prices for Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe were 14.30, 14.58, and 14.44 yuan per kilogram respectively, with month-on-month increases of 1.56%, 1.32%, and 1.83% [3]. Group 4: Weight Metrics - The average weight of hogs sold in July was 105.7 kg per head, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.34% but a year-on-year increase of 0.53% [4]. - The average weights for Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe were 128.07, 105.69, and 95.81 kg per head respectively, with month-on-month changes of -1.11%, -7.03%, and -3.43% [4].

智通财经APP获悉，西部证券发布研报称， 2025年7月上市猪企出栏量同比显著增长，但受季节性需求 疲软及政策调控影响，环比有所回落。尽管出栏量增长，但猪价同比下滑拖累营收，行业整体收入环比 下降6.64%。当前猪价仍处低位，但出栏均重政策调控初见成效。建议关注出栏增长确定性强的龙头标 的，推荐牧原股份(002714.SZ)、温氏股份(300498.SZ)、唐人神(002567.SZ)、华统股份(002840.SZ)、巨 星农牧(603477.SH)。 西部证券主要观点如下： 上市猪企25年7月出栏量为1553.82万头，同比+31.36%，环比-4.59% 头部企业中，牧原股份/温氏股份/新希望生猪出栏635.50/316.48/130.25万头，同比分别 +13.02%/+36.22%/+3.21%，环比-9.46%/+5.24%/-2.07%。25年7月上市猪企出栏量同比大幅增长，原因 是上市猪企24年产能扩张导致25年出栏量大增。出栏量环比下降原因是(1)淡季需求较低;(2)受政策导向 影响，前期生猪出栏量较大。上市猪企25年1~7月累计出栏量为1.10亿头，同比+20.97%。1~7月上市猪 企出栏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In August, as China approaches the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holiday season, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase. However, the domestic macro - environment is pessimistically expected, and high - temperature weather suppresses short - term fresh pork consumption. Although China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence, the market is likely to see both supply and demand increase this week, with pig prices maintaining a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,600 - 14,000 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in both supply and demand. Spot prices are short - term oscillatory and weak, and the futures market follows a similar pattern. Although the spot price is weak, the decline may be limited due to reduced slaughter. Low pig - raising profits and relatively good large - pig slaughter enthusiasm also suppress short - term price expectations. The stabilization of the market depends on future supply reduction and demand recovery [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: Domestic pig inventory has declined year - on - year, and the further decline of domestic pig spot prices may be limited [11]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook due to the Sino - US tariff war, and pig and pork consumption enters the off - season after May Day [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: In August, supply and demand are expected to increase. The market may see both pig and meat supply increase. High - temperature weather and a pessimistic macro - environment suppress short - term demand, but tariff policies boost market confidence [8]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Price**: The national average spot price is 13,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is - 65 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downward [8]. 5. Position Data - The net long position of the main contract is decreasing [8].

Group 1 - The national average price of live pigs as of August 13 is 14.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.32% compared to August 6 [1] - The corn price in major wholesale markets remains stable at 2.40 yuan/kg, with the pig-to-grain ratio dropping to 5.94, down 1.33% from August 6 [1] - Due to seasonal consumption weakness and increased supply from earlier fattening of pigs, the price of live pigs has slightly declined, prompting the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to initiate central frozen pork reserve storage [1] Group 2 - As of August 22, the main live pig futures contract opened higher, increasing by 0.69% to 13,865 yuan/ton [2] - The current market structure for live pig contracts shows a weak near-term and strong long-term outlook, with a recommendation to consider buying the distant month 2601 contract at support levels of 13,400-13,500 [4]

国信证券8月22日发布研报称，给予牧原股份（002714.SZ，最新价：49.81元）优于大市评级。评级理 由主要包括：1）2025H1生猪养殖成本稳步下降，盈利能力同比显著增长；2）资产负债表稳步修复， 2025H1现金分红大幅提升；3）软件硬件优势兼具，国际化战略稳步推进。风险提示：疫病风险、原料 价格大幅波动风险、产能扩张不及预期风险。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

《每日经济新闻》记者梳理发现，从7月初以来，猪肉价格延续了总体下跌的趋势。猪价下跌主要有哪些原因？开展中央储备冻猪肉收储后对猪价会有哪 些影响？后续走势如何？记者就此采访了农业领域的专家。 价格低位主要由需求 疲软及市场情绪共同导致 国家发展改革委官网发布的信息显示，近期，由于夏季天气炎热、消费季节性偏弱，加之前期二次育肥生猪出栏，猪肉市场供应有所增加，生猪价格小幅 回落。 据国家发展改革委监测，近日全国平均猪粮比价跌至6：1以下，按照《完善政府猪肉储备调节机制 做好猪肉市场保供稳价工作预案》（以下简称《预 案》）规定，进入三级预警区间。为促进生猪市场平稳运行，近期国家发展改革委将会同有关部门开展中央冻猪肉储备收储。 记者梳理发现，自6月中旬开始，猪肉价格曾经历过短暂上涨，但从7月初以来，猪肉价格总体延续了下跌趋势。 每经记者｜张蕊 每经编辑｜程鹏 陈旭 8月21日，国家发展改革委官网发布信息，表示将于近期会同有关部门开展中央冻猪肉储备收储。 同日，华储网发布《关于2025年8月25日中央储备冻猪肉收储竞价交易有关事项的通知》（以下简称《通知》）。 瘦肉型白条猪肉出厂价格总指数运行走势图 自7月初以来猪肉价格 ...