——2026 年 1 月信用利差月报 作者 分析师 姚宇彤 2026 年 2 月 9 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 配置盘支撑下，1 月信用利差全线收窄 2026 年 1 月，债市整体偏强震荡：年初至中旬股市和商品市场表现强劲， 对债市形成压制；下旬，受获利盘出逃、融资保证金升高等因素影响，权益 市场情绪降温，加之公募基金费率新规正式稿温和落地，缓解债基赎回担忧， 以及央行结构性货币政策工具降息、配置型机构大力买入等因素支撑，债市 呈现修复行情。由于信用债相对利率债更具票息优势，银行、保险"开门红" 增加信用债配置需求，以及摊余债基集中开放期投资偏好转向信用债，1 月 信用债表现好于利率债，信用利差全线收窄。 核心观点 ·· 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 部门执行总监 于丽峰 部门执行总监 冯琳 1 月，债券市场整体偏强震荡，在信用债相对利率债更具票息 优势，银行、保险"开门红"增加信用债配置需求，以及摊 余债基集中开放期投资偏好转向信用债等因素带动下，信用 债表现好于利率债，信用利差全线收窄。目前，短久期信用 债利差普遍已压缩至历史低位，中长久期部分品种仍有一定 的利差空间，且考虑到摊余债基开放对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the real estate market continued to adjust, with an accelerated decline in the second half of the year. The prices of second - hand and new houses decreased, and the sales area and investment also declined. The financing environment of real - estate enterprises did not improve substantially, but debt restructuring made progress [4]. - In 2026, real estate policies will remain marginally loose. Demand - side policies aim to lower actual mortgage rates, and supply - side policies focus on controlling increments and reducing inventories to optimize the supply - demand structure. The market will likely continue to adjust, but the adjustment amplitude will narrow. Sales may stop falling and stabilize if mortgage rates can be effectively lowered, and investment decline will also narrow [5]. - In 2026, the bond repayment pressure of state - owned real - estate enterprises is mainly concentrated in the domestic bond market and has decreased compared to previous years. The bond maturity volume of private real - estate enterprises has significantly declined, and the overall repayment pressure is low. The credit risk of real - estate bonds will tend to be stable, but the debt repayment situation of individual private enterprises still needs attention. Debt restructuring of real - estate enterprises will continue to accelerate [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Real Estate Policy Review - **Accelerating inventory reduction and optimizing supply structure**: Supply - side policies centered on "controlling increments, reducing inventories, and optimizing supply". "Controlling increments" involved matching land and new housing supply as needed and controlling new land use in surplus areas. In 2025, the land supply in third - tier cities contracted rapidly, and 1202.1 billion yuan of land reserve special bonds were used to acquire idle land. "Reducing inventories" aimed to clear market inventories and ensure people's livelihoods through measures such as converting existing commercial housing into affordable housing and urban village renovation. "Optimizing supply" promoted the upgrading of housing quality with the construction of "good houses" [9][11][12]. - **Strengthening the implementation of financing support for housing delivery**: The focus of the "housing delivery guarantee" work shifted from "mechanism establishment" to "financing implementation". By October 2025, the approved loan amount for "whitelist" projects exceeded 7 trillion yuan, but there were challenges such as intensified project qualification differentiation and a time lag between approval and loan disbursement [15]. - **Marginal relaxation of demand - side policies**: Demand - side policies continued to be refined to reduce the cost of home - buying and release rigid and improved housing demand. In 2025, the purchase restrictions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen were significantly relaxed, the down - payment ratio was lowered, the provident fund loan interest rate was reduced, and the loan amount was increased [16]. 3.2 2025 Real Estate Market Operation - **Price performance**: Second - hand house prices continued to fall, with the decline first narrowing slightly and then widening significantly. In December, the year - on - year decline in 70 - city second - hand house prices was 6.1%, and first - tier cities showed a "catch - up decline" feature. New house prices also continued to fall, with a 3.0% year - on - year decline in 70 - city new commercial housing prices in December [21][24]. - **Sales performance**: The real - estate sales continued to be deeply adjusted in 2025. The annual commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%, and the sales volume was 8393.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%. The market activity was low, and the daily average transaction volume in 30 cities was weak [25][30]. - **Investment performance**: Real - estate development investment accelerated its decline in 2025, with the annual investment completion amount of 8278.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sources of development funds decreased by 13.4% year - on - year. New construction, construction, and completion areas all decreased. The land market was cold, with a 14.2% year - on - year decrease in the planned construction area of residential land in 100 large and medium - sized cities [35][36][42]. 3.3 2025 Real - Estate Bond Market Performance - **Issuance and net financing**: In 2025, the total issuance of domestic and overseas real - estate bonds was 796.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 93.3%. The net financing gap narrowed significantly. Domestic bonds: 83 real - estate enterprises issued 413 domestic real - estate bonds, with a total issuance of 360.95 billion yuan, and the net financing gap was 62.96 billion yuan. Overseas bonds: 74 overseas real - estate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 61.8 billion US dollars, and the net financing turned positive [49][50][60]. - **Credit risk evolution**: From 2021 to 2025, 65 domestic and overseas bond default and extension entities were added, with 2 in 2025. The event of Vanke's bond extension in 2025 had a significant impact on the market, affecting market confidence, financing environment, and industry differentiation [62][70]. - **Debt resolution of troubled real - estate enterprises**: Since 2024, the debt - resolution strategy has shifted to "substantial debt reduction + structural optimization". In 2025, investors became more accepting of debt reduction, and the debt - resolution approach changed from partial and scattered disposal to overall restructuring. Debt - resolution tools became more diversified. For example, CIFI Group's debt restructuring verified the feasibility of the "substantial debt reduction" plan [72][73][74]. - **Secondary - market price changes and spread fluctuations**: In 2025, the number of abnormal price movements in the secondary market of real - estate bonds decreased. The spread of real - estate bonds showed a trend of "oscillating downward and rising at the end of the year", and was more affected by the overall credit - bond market [77][80]. 3.4 2026 Real Estate Industry and Real - Estate Bond Market Outlook - **Policy outlook**: In 2026, real - estate policies will remain marginally loose. Demand - side policies will focus on guiding the actual mortgage rate to decline, and supply - side policies will continue to control increments and reduce inventories. However, the short - term stimulus policies will not be significantly stronger than in 2025 [87]. - **Market outlook**: The real - estate market will likely continue to adjust in 2026, but the adjustment amplitude will narrow. If the actual mortgage rate can be effectively lowered, the sales may stop falling and stabilize, and the investment decline will also narrow [97]. - **Credit risk outlook**: In 2026, the total maturity scale of domestic and overseas real - estate bonds is 596.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The debt repayment pressure of state - owned real - estate enterprises has decreased, and that of private real - estate enterprises is low. The overall credit risk of the real - estate industry will tend to be stable, but the debt repayment of individual private enterprises needs attention [99]. - **Debt - resolution path outlook**: Debt restructuring through substantial debt reduction and diversified innovative debt tools will continue to accelerate in 2026. The market trend and the transformation and development of real - estate enterprises will be the two key variables affecting the debt - resolution process [103].

2月24日，山子高科涨5.4%，截至发稿，报4.88元/股，成交25.36亿元，换手率5.58%，总市值487.88亿 元。 资料显示，山子高科技股份有限公司位于浙江省杭州市余杭区五常街道爱橙街1号阿里巴巴数字生态创 新园10幢3单元605室，成立日期1998年8月31日，上市日期2000年6月22日，公司主营业务涉及无级变速 器和汽车安全气囊气体发生器的研发、生产和销售以及房地产开发和销售。主营业务收入构成为：汽车 安全气囊气体发生器51.89%，汽车动力总成18.69%，物业管理14.64%，整车销售7.23%，其他4.79%， 酒店经营2.46%，房产销售0.30%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，格林基金旗下1只基金重仓山子高科。格林研究优选混合A（011977）四季度持有股数21.01 万股，占基金净值比例为0.99%，位居第六大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约5.25万元。 格林研究优选混合A（011977）成立日期2021年8月19日，最新规模6912.69万。今年以来收益4.34%， 同类排名4309/8994；近一年收益44.89%，同类排名1998/8199；成立以来收益31.18%。 ...

最近楼市圈子里流行一个说法，叫2026年楼市会出现L型回稳？ 意思是房价不会立马反弹，也不会继续大幅下探，而是横在一个位置不动了，慢慢消化，慢慢筑底。听 起来很稳，很理性，很符合当前市场的气质。 高和资本的苏鑫在最近的年度论坛上就明确表达了这个观点！他表示2026年大概率是底部确认的一年。 他的逻辑有三个支撑： 第一，二手房价格已经从高点回撤了大约39%，泡沫被大幅挤压。 一、真实的市场里，L型回稳几乎不可能自然形成 第二，第二，新开工面积下降了74%，供给端处于极度收缩状态，供求关系正在被动回归平衡。 第三，第三，30个重点城市租金回报率中位数达到2.06%，超过一年期存款利率，开始具备长期持有的 经济逻辑。 但是，我并不认可这样的观点！ 从数据面看，这个判断确实是有一部分支撑的。 2025年12月，70个大中城市里有6个城市新房价格环比上涨，到了2026年1月，二线城市整体降幅收窄了 0.1个百分点。 还有二手房的成交量，2026年1月，全国重点20城二手房成交面积1483万平方米，同比上涨25%。上海1 月二手房网签2.28万套，连续三个月超过2.2万套，创下近五年同期新高。深圳录得6802套，同比大涨 ...

智通财经APP获悉，克而瑞地产发文称，2025年，房地产政策仍保持宽松基调，基础设施REITs工作在 稳步推进。房企融资上，2025年房企融资仍然呈现收缩态势，全年融资规模达4143亿，同比下降26%。 其中第四季度融资1023亿，环比下降14%，同比下降14%，仍然处于历史低位。展望2026年，克而瑞预 计房企偿债压力将有所减缓，公募REITs助力房企由重至轻。 2026年偿债压力有所减缓，公募REITs助力房企由重至轻 由于近年来房企债券发行规模下滑明显，2026年房企整体的债务到期规模也明显下降，全年到期约4038 亿元，其中一季度到期约1298亿，三季度到期1180亿，为年内的高点。 从企业的债券类融资成本来看，2025年的境外债券融资成本为6.21%。2025年2月绿城中国(03900)发行 了一笔2028年到期的3.5亿美元的优先票据，利息高达8.45%；而6月新城发展发行3亿美元境外债，利率 高达11.88%。相比之下，越秀在10月底发行的境外优先票据成本低至3.3%，华润在11月发行的两笔境 外债成本分别为2.4%和4.125%。目前仅极少数房企有在境外发行债券的情况，但是发行成本出现了明 显 ...

据深交所披露，深圳华侨城股份有限公司2026年面向专业投资者非公开发行公司债券的项目状态更新 为"已受理"，品种为私募，申报规模为25亿元，受理及更新日期为2026年02月14日。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Jingneng Real Estate (SH600791) experienced a significant stock price increase, reaching a limit up of 10.01% to 8.02 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 3.632 billion yuan and a trading volume of 329 million yuan on February 24, 2026 [1][2]. Group 2 - Jingneng Real Estate's stock surge is attributed to several factors: successful financing, project sales growth, and debt structure optimization. The company has issued a total of 2.5 billion yuan in medium-term notes and 200 million yuan in perpetual bonds, with a low interest rate of 2.10%, enhancing its financing capabilities [2]. - The issuance of perpetual bonds has led to a 251.33% increase in owners' equity, which supports the company's liquidity and long-term development [2]. - Some projects, such as Jingneng Yunjing No. 1 and Jingneng Yongqing Liyuan, have shown significant sales growth year-on-year, indicating the company's competitive position in the real estate market [2]. - Despite some projects experiencing sales declines, the overall positive performance of certain projects may have contributed to the stock price increase [2]. - Recent favorable policies in the real estate market have also positively impacted the sector, leading to increased interest in related stocks [2]. - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for Jingneng Real Estate, with a recent MACD indicator crossover attracting attention from technical investors [2].

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《上海三区启动住房以旧换新，推动 新房去库存 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.4 行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 《2025Q4 公募基金延续低配，持股集 中度进一步提升—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.27 《销售延续调整态势，期待政策显效 与市场筑底 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.19 楼市延续筑底行情，政策宽松下布局时点已至 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 春节市场成交量：一手房网签偏弱，二手房基本持平 一手房方面，2026 年除夕前一周 40 城市合计一手房成交 133.68 ...

经济观察网 浦东金桥近期未宣布重大未来事件，公司近期已完成治理结构调整并披露了2025年第三季 度财务报告。 2025年第三季度报告显示，单季度营收同比下降22.00%，但净利润同比增长159.29%；2025年前三季度 累计营收同比下降30.46%，归母净利润同比下降13.36%。2025年第一季度营收和净利润同比分别下降 43.88%和54.87%。 股价与资金表现 截至2026年1月30日，股价报10.60元/股，总市值约118.98亿元；主力资金当日净流出517.97万元。 当前无公开信息提及浦东金桥的特定未来计划（如土地竞拍或项目启动）。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 公司结构与治理 2025年12月30日，公司召开临时股东大会和董事会，选举郭嵘为新董事长，取消监事会，并修订公司章 程及议事规则，明确注册资本为11.22亿元，经营范围包括房地产开发经营等。这些变化可能影响未来 治理结构。 业绩经营情况 ...

固定收益周报 成交规模微增，信用利差多数收窄 ――信用债周报 分析师：李济安 SAC NO：S1150522060001 2026 年 2 月 24 日 核心观点： 城投债方面，坚持统筹发展和安全的原则下，城投违约的可能性很低， 城投债仍可作为信用债重点配置品种。有力有序有效推进地方融资平台出清 的严监管下，融资平台改革转型加快推进，关注"实体类"融资平台改革转 型的机会。 本期（2 月 9 日至 2 月 15 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行， 整体变化幅度为-4 BP 至 0 BP。本期信用债发行规模环比下降，企业债保持 零发行，其余品种发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比减少，企业债净融资 额增加，其余品种净融资额减少，企业债、短期融资券净融资额为负，其余 品种净融资额为正。二级市场方面，本期信用债成交金额环比微增，企业债、 中期票据成交金额增加，公司债、短期融资券、定向工具成交金额减少。收 益率方面，本期信用债收益率多数下行。信用利差方面，本期多数品种信用 利差收窄。分位数来看，多数品种利差均处于历史低位，7 年期品种分位数 相对较高。绝对收益角度来看，相对旺盛的配置需求将推动信用债延续修复 行情 ...