Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and hard to fall in the third and fourth quarters of this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, short - term fundamentals are acceptable. In a low - inventory situation, hold positions on dips and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern that may further differentiate. Short - term single - side positions can be used as a short - side allocation, and internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to hold [2]. - Nickel has a weak short - term fundamental situation, and geopolitical risks have been alleviated to some extent. Continuous attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. The short - term macro - aspect follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [6]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. - Tin's short - term domestic fundamentals maintain a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term observation is recommended, and long positions can be held near the cost line in the medium - long term [9]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance state in September and October. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom anchored by seasonal marginal costs [12]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of a seasonal peak season, the monthly balance turns to continuous de - stocking after CATL's production reduction, but the de - stocking amplitude is small. Before the supply - side disturbance is realized, the price has strong downward support in the peak season [14]. Summary by Metal Types Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The fundamentals remained resilient. Domestic social inventories did not accumulate despite increased imported copper arrivals, and downstream production was in the stage of consuming finished - product inventories. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the external - internal positive arbitrage had room. Macro - economically, copper benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - loosening [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to July. Downstream construction improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. Inventories are expected to decline in September [1]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. Smelting production decreased slightly in September due to concentrated maintenance. Overseas mine supply increased more than expected. Domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas European demand was average. The domestic social inventory continued to rise, and the overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and overseas warehouse receipts increased. Geopolitical risks in Indonesia have been alleviated, and attention should be paid to the situation of the Indonesian forestry department taking over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. Stainless Steel - Supply is expected to gradually resume as northern steel mills are affected by the military parade. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs include stable ferronickel prices and slightly rising ferrochrome prices. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. Supply was expected to be tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons. Demand improved slightly, but inventories were at a high level. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. The supply of raw materials was tight in the short term, and it is expected to gradually increase after October. The demand for solder was limited, and the domestic inventory fluctuated. The LME inventory rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to observe in the short term and hold long positions near the cost line in the medium - long term [9]. Industrial Silicon - This week, leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production. Sichuan and Yunnan had stable production. In September and October, supply and demand were in a tight - balance state. In the medium - long term, the industrial silicon capacity was still in significant excess, and prices were expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [12]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's production resumption, the futures market declined significantly in the middle of the week. The contradiction lies in the background of an uncompleted large - scale capacity expansion cycle and a still - surplus static supply - demand pattern, with resource - side compliance disturbances. In the peak season, the monthly balance turns to de - stocking after CATL's production reduction, but the de - stocking amplitude is small [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The Fed's monetary policy adjustments and industry - specific factors jointly affect the prices of various non - ferrous metals. Overall, most non - ferrous metals show different trends in price, inventory, and market sentiment, with short - term price trends varying from metal to metal [2][4][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - The Fed's interest rate cut and the rate dot - plot's indication of future cuts led to copper price adjustments. LME copper closed down 1.41% to $9974/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79880 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic downstream procurement sentiment was weak. Short - term copper prices may turn to a volatile trend, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 79200 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9880 - 10100 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices generally declined. LME aluminum closed down 0.83% to $2689/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20750 yuan/ton. Domestic inventories increased, and the market transaction was not ideal. With downstream entering the traditional peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strongly supported. The domestic main contract is expected to run between 20700 - 21000 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M between 2660 - 2720 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Lead concentrate raw materials are in short supply, and the downstream battery inventory is decreasing. Although there was some emotional disturbance in the non - ferrous metal sector before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the overall sentiment is still positive, and the improved industry data supports the upward breakthrough of lead prices [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Zinc concentrate inventory is rising, and processing fees are differentiated. The import window is closed, and the zinc ore surplus is alleviated. Although the SHFE zinc increase is limited, if the zinc ingot export window opens and zinc ore imports are restricted, the domestic zinc price may rise with the sector [6]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile. The supply of tin is significantly reduced due to slow resumption of production in Myanmar and smelter maintenance. Although the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors have weak demand, the demand has marginally improved with the arrival of the peak season, so the price is expected to be strong [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the high inventory of refined nickel drags down the nickel price, but in the long term, factors such as the Fed's easing expectations and the RKAB approval are expected to support the nickel price. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the SHFE nickel main contract running between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is in a volatile adjustment. The fundamental improvement has been reflected in the market, and there is currently no new marginal change to drive the price up. Attention should be paid to industry information and macro - expectation changes. The reference operating range of the GZFE lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 70800 - 75800 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. Although the ore price has short - term support, it may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to be strong. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to run between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The demand for stainless steel is weak due to the downturn in the real estate industry. Although the demand from the new energy vehicle industry is increasing, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. The downstream consumption has not improved significantly, and the market is waiting and watching [16][17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost is strongly supported by the supply disturbance of scrap aluminum at home and abroad. With the exchange reducing the margin ratio, market activity is increasing [19].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. has seen a stock price increase of 5.01% to 16.76 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.126 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 33.581 billion CNY as of September 17 [1] Company Overview - Yunnan Copper was established on May 15, 1998, and listed on June 2, 1998. The company is located in Kunming, Yunnan Province, and its main business includes copper exploration, mining, smelting, precious and rare metal extraction and processing, sulfur chemical products, and trading [1] - The revenue composition of Yunnan Copper is as follows: cathode copper 74.00%, other products 12.42%, precious metals 12.24%, and sulfuric acid 1.33% [1] Fund Holdings - According to data, one fund under Guotai Haitong Asset Management has a significant holding in Yunnan Copper. The Guotai Junan CSI 500 Index Enhanced A (014155) held 1.8515 million shares in the second quarter, accounting for 1.15% of the fund's net value, making it the fourth-largest holding [2] - The fund has generated an estimated floating profit of approximately 1.4812 million CNY today [2] Fund Performance - The Guotai Junan CSI 500 Index Enhanced A (014155) was established on December 15, 2021, with a latest scale of 1.451 billion CNY. Year-to-date, it has achieved a return of 29.35%, ranking 1625 out of 4222 in its category. Over the past year, it has returned 66.34%, ranking 1386 out of 3804, and since inception, it has returned 26.3% [2] Fund Management - The fund is managed by Hu Chonghai and Deng Yakuan. Hu has a tenure of 3 years and 278 days, with a total asset scale of 8.512 billion CNY, achieving a best return of 72.56% and a worst return of -0.04% during his tenure [3] - Deng has a tenure of 1 year and 125 days, managing assets totaling 2.132 billion CNY, with a best return of 42.01% and a worst return of 11.38% during his tenure [3]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜铜价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，美联储议息会议降息概率升至 90%以上，接近充分定 库 | | | 价，市场偏谨慎看待，但整体上投资者对流动性存在再宽松预期。库存方面，LME | | | 存下降 1675 吨至 150950 吨；Comex 库存增加 926 吨至 283832 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 | | 铜 | 3049 吨至 33692 吨，BC 铜增加 321 吨至 11794 吨。需求方面，下游畏惧高铜价及宏观 | | | 不确定性，采购积极性较弱。美联储降息 25 个基点几乎完全定价，市场关注在于是否 | | | 存利多落地表现，届时若美股出现大幅回落表现，可能会带动有色市场情绪偏弱，因此 | | | 该时间节点前后波动率预期加大下多看少动，但站在政策预期及需求旺季的角度，铜 | | | 价仍可偏强看待。 | | 铝 | 氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2601 收于 2962 元/吨，跌幅 0.9%，持仓增仓 17050 手至 30.4 | | | 万手。沪铝震荡偏 ...

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is a non - ferrous metals morning report released on September 17, 2025, by the non - ferrous metals team of the research center [1] Group 2: Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 257, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 3049. The LME inventory decreased by 1675 [1] - **Core View**: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000, breaking upward on Thursday and Friday. Fundamentally, the domestic social inventory of copper did not accumulate despite the increase in imported copper arrivals. The downstream start - up weakened, and it was in the stage of consuming finished product inventory. Macroscopically, copper currently benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - expansion. After the FOMC meeting next week, pay attention to the possible phased realization of bullish factors. The copper price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the third and fourth quarters. If there is a callback after short - term bullish factors are realized, consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,500 or selling put options below 78,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots remained unchanged, the domestic alumina price decreased by 9, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum LME inventory decreased by 1500 [1] - **Core View**: Supply increased slightly, with imports of aluminum ingots providing an increment from January to July. Downstream start - up improved, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decline. In the short - term, the fundamentals are okay. Pay attention to demand. Hold at low prices in the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] Group 4: Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium remained at - 60, the price of Shanghai zinc ingots increased by 30, and the zinc social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1175 [1][2] - **Core View**: This week, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. On the supply side, the domestic TC decreased slightly, and the imported TC increased. In September, smelting production decreased slightly due to concentrated maintenance. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand had some production resistance. The domestic social inventory continued to rise, and the overseas LME inventory decreased. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further differentiate. In the short - term, it can be used as a short - side configuration, and the internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued to hold [2] Group 5: Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel spot increased by 50, and the LME inventory increased by 1950 [3] - **Core View**: On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remained at a high level. On the demand side, it was weak overall, and the premium was stable recently. In terms of inventory, there was a slight accumulation in the domestic market and an increase in overseas warehouse receipts. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and the anti - involution sentiment in the macro - aspect has rebounded. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [4] Group 6: Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils increased by 50, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coils increased by 50 [5][6] - **Core View**: On the supply side, steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of ferrochrome increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Fundamentally, it is still weak. Pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [6] Group 7: Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot premium decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, and the LME inventory increased by 2225 [7] - **Core View**: This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries was tight. On the demand side, the inventory of battery finished products was high, and the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The supply is expected to be tight, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000. In September, there is an expectation of a peak season, but the terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,200 [7] Group 8: Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the spot import earnings decreased by 2200.06, the spot export earnings increased by 1949.49, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [9] - **Core View**: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters reduced production. Overseas, the import from Wa State was less than 200 metal tons in August, and the supply of raw materials is expected to increase gradually after October. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the domestic inventory fluctuates. The LME inventory has rebounded from a low level. In the short - term, the domestic fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [9] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 15, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 65, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 33 [10] - **Core View**: This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production. Currently, the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. In the short - term, the supply and demand in September and October are still in a tight balance state. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [10] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 10 - 16, 2025, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 400, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 400, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 139 [12] - **Core View**: This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week. On the raw material side, miners are not willing to sell at low prices. On the lithium salt side, upstream salt factories also have the sentiment of holding prices. The current basis level has strengthened slightly, and the supply of large - discount goods has decreased. The current contradiction is that under the background of over - capacity, the resource side faces phased compliance disturbances. In the seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production reduction turns to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is small. The price elasticity is high after the speculation of supply - side disturbances is realized, and the price has strong downward support before the disturbances are realized [12]

有色金属日报 2025-9-17 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国零售销售数据好于预期，铜价震荡回调，昨日伦铜收跌 0.71%至 10117 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约 收至 80900 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 铜库存减少 1675 至 150950 吨，注销仓单比例下滑至 10.5%， Cash/3M 贴水 59.3 美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上期所铜仓单增加 0.3 ...

Meeting Details - The shareholder meeting was held on September 16, 2025, at 14:30 [3] - The meeting combined on-site voting and online voting [6] - A total of 505 shareholders participated, representing 1,390,303,662 shares, which is 37.1977% of the total shares [7] Voting Results - Proposal 1: Approval for the company to register and issue short-term financing bonds up to RMB 3 billion, with 99.4194% votes in favor [13][14] - Proposal 2: Reappointment of Zhongshun Zhonghuan Accounting Firm for the 2025 financial audit, with 99.4578% votes in favor [15][16] Legal Opinions - The legal opinion was provided by Beijing Zhonglun (Shenzhen) Law Firm, confirming that the meeting procedures complied with legal regulations and the company's articles of association [17][18]

Group 1 - The company announced that it has no overdue guarantees [2] - There are no guarantees related to lawsuits or any amounts that the company would need to pay due to losing a lawsuit [2] - The company and its subsidiaries do not provide guarantees to entities outside the consolidated financial statements [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated higher. Macro - factors such as progress in Sino - US negotiations and expected Fed rate cuts contributed to a positive market sentiment. However, domestic demand was weak, and there was a divergence between bulls and bears. Although there was a high probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut, the market was concerned about whether it would be a "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" situation. Considering policy expectations and the peak demand season, copper prices could still rise [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Short - term alumina maintenance capacity returned, and raw material inventory decreased. Due to reduced ore shipments during the rainy season, ore prices rose, and the decline space of alumina was limited. Aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking during the week, and with the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices were supported. Aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum [1][2]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. LME nickel inventory decreased, while domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased. Nickel ore prices were relatively stable, and the price of low - grade laterite nickel ore decreased slightly. Stainless steel weekly inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply was relatively tight. Under the influence of macro - sentiment and supply disruptions in Indonesia, nickel prices rose rapidly and faced correction pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro - factors were positive, but domestic demand was weak. LME inventory decreased by 1325 tons to 152625 tons, Comex inventory increased by 592 tons to 281669 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 15.42 million tons. Downstream procurement was weak, but scrap copper substitution was beneficial. The market sentiment shifted, and copper prices turned from weak to strong. However, due to the uncertainty of the Fed rate cut impact, volatility was expected to increase around the time of the rate - cut decision [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina (AO2601) closed at 3009 yuan/ton with a 2.84% increase, and its position increased by 7317 lots to 284,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum (AL2510) closed at 21060 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase, and its position decreased by 4743 lots to 178,000 lots. Aluminum alloy (AD2511) closed at 20535 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase, and its position decreased by 7 lots to 8528 lots. SMM alumina prices fell to 3065 yuan/ton, and aluminum ingot spot discounts widened [1]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: LME nickel rose 0.29% to 15425 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.11% to 122310 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons to 224484 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1430 tons to 24959 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable, stainless steel inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly, and MHP supply was tight. Nickel prices faced correction pressure after a rapid rise [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the price of flat - water copper rose by 175 yuan/ton to 80910 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 100 yuan/ton to 74200 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1325 tons, and domestic social inventory (including bonded areas) increased by 0.7 million tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by 180 yuan/ton to 17040 yuan/ton. LME lead inventory decreased by 3950 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 68 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 20930 yuan/ton, and the South China price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 20900 yuan/ton. Aluminum inventory (LME + SHFE) increased by 4421 tons, and alumina social inventory decreased by 1.0 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 150 yuan/ton to 124150 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1430 tons. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price rose by 0.1% to 22305 yuan/ton. LME zinc inventory decreased by 375 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.55 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price rose by 0.4% to 273890 yuan/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 25 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts increased by 76 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than ten years of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles, and been interviewed by multiple media [50]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry and the new energy industry chain [50]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and tracks the new energy industry chain [51].

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is a non - rated research on the non - ferrous metals industry, including copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, lead, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The fundamentals remained resilient, with an increase in imported copper arrivals but no accumulation of domestic social inventories. Downstream开工 decreased, and they were in the stage of consuming finished - product inventories. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, but the rigid purchasing ability was still good. Macroscopically, copper benefited from the global fiscal and monetary double - easing, and the overseas interest - rate cut expectation was further priced in. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the third and fourth quarters. If the short - term positive factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to July. Downstream开工 improved, with stable production schedules for photovoltaic modules, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decline. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low - inventory pattern, hold positions on dips and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Domestic TC decreased slightly, while imported TC increased further. In September, due to concentrated maintenance, smelting output decreased slightly month - on - month. Overseas, the quarterly mine - end increment exceeded expectations, and China's zinc ore imports in July exceeded 500,000 tons, the highest in the past three years. Domestic demand was seasonally weak, with limited growth but certain resilience; overseas, European demand was average, and some smelters faced production resistance due to processing fees. Domestic social inventories continued to rise, while overseas LME inventories decreased, mainly flowing to Europe and the United States. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge, and the export window is about 1,000 - 1,200 yuan/ton away from opening. In terms of strategy, short - term unilateral positions can be used as a short - side allocation, and internal - external positive arbitrage can continue to be held [2] Group 5: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level. Demand was generally weak, and the premium was stable recently. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and overseas warehouse receipts increased. The short - term fundamentals were weak, and the macro - level anti - involution sentiment rebounded. The Indonesian parade subsided, but it was reported that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau took over part of the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel, and follow - up attention is needed [3][4] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually due to the military parade. Demand was mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of chrome iron increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The fundamentals remained generally weak, and the short - term macro - level followed the anti - involution expectation. The Indonesian parade subsided, and it was reported that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau took over part of the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel [6] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year; the expansion of recycling plants led to a general shortage of waste batteries, and recycled lead maintained low - level operation under low profits. Demand had no obvious boost, and recyclers sold in small quantities; from April to August, the concentrate operation increased, but the smelting profit led to a supply shortage, and the TC quotation declined in a chaotic manner. On the demand side, the finished - product inventory of batteries was high, the battery operation rate increased this week, but the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The refined - scrap price difference was - 25, and there was an expectation of supply shortage. The LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons. In September, the market had expectations of a peak season, and orders generally improved, but the destocking intensity of terminal consumption and the purchasing intensity of lead ingots were both weak this week. The willingness of downstream battery factories to receive goods rebounded, but the volume of receiving warehouse receipts was only in the thousands of tons, with limited intensity. The exchange inventory reached a historical high of nearly 70,000 tons. In August, the primary supply was flat, and recycled lead production decreased. In September, both production reduction and resumption of recycled lead occurred, and the supply is expected to be flat. The price rebound improved the recycled lead sales, the refined - scrap price difference was - 25, and the lead ingot spot was at a discount of 20. Demand improved slightly, but the inventory was at a high level, and battery factories controlled production. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7][18] Group 8: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee at the mine end was at a low level, and some domestic smelters reduced production. Yunnan Tin started maintenance at the beginning of September for about 45 days. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August was less than 200 metal tons, and the short - term raw material supply was tight, and the output may gradually increase after October; African tin mines have medium - and long - term increments but unstable short - term output; Indonesian exports are expected to resume in mid - to late September. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder was limited, the terminal electronic consumption had expectations of a peak season, but the expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth was strong, and the domestic inventory fluctuated; as Indonesia gradually resumed, the LME inventory rebounded from a low level. At the spot end, there was no obvious improvement in the consumption peak season, and the premium declined slightly. The domestic fundamentals remained in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to the phased mismatch in supply in September and the expectation change of a non - prosperous peak season after the supply resumes in October, as well as the impact of interest - rate cut expectations on non - ferrous metals as a whole. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long term, hold positions on dips close to the cost line [11] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production, with 75 furnaces in operation. Currently, the operation in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, with a monthly output close to 120,000 tons. Some silicon factories in Xinjiang have plans to increase production later. In September, the balance is in a balanced state, and the increment space in the southwest at the current price is limited. The core of the balance change is the rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng's resumption of production. In the short term, affected by the resumption rhythm in the southwest and Hesheng, the supply and demand will remain in a tight - balance state in September and October. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, the operation rate is low, and the price trend is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [12][14] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week. On the raw material side, due to the obvious de - stocking of lithium mines in the early stage, miners were not willing to sell at low prices. On the lithium salt side, upstream salt factories also had a sentiment of holding up prices, and most scattered orders were pre - sold. In the spot market, the current basis level strengthened slightly, the large - discount goods decreased compared with the previous period, but the market supply was still abundant, and the quotes of new goods mostly fluctuated around par. The current contradiction is that in the context of an unfinished large - scale capacity expansion cycle and a still - surplus static supply - demand pattern, the resource end faces periodic compliance disturbances. In the context of the current seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production reduction has turned to continuous de - stocking, but the de - stocking amplitude is still small compared with the existing inventory level, and the demand performance has a greater impact on the de - stocking amplitude. In the context of a strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price elasticity after the speculation of supply - side disturbances is high, and the price support is strong before the disturbances materialize [16]