Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, today the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.06%. Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 0.52%, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.18%. The Nanhua Metal Index had the largest decline of -0.39%, and the Nanhua Precious Metal Index had the smallest decline of -0.07%. Among the theme indices, the Energy Index had the largest increase of 1.11%, and the Oilseeds Index had the smallest increase of 0.09%. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -0.37%, and the Black Raw Materials Index had the smallest decline of -0.12%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Fuel Oil Index had the largest increase of 1.74%, and the Plywood Index had the largest decline of -1.93% [1][3]. 3. Summary by Index Type 3.1 Comprehensive and Sector Indices | Index Name | Today's Close | Yesterday's Close | Points Change | Daily Change | Annualized Return Rate | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2400.26 | 2398.92 | 1.33 | 0.06% | -12.75% | 14.01% | -0.91 | | Precious Metal Index NHPMI | 1238.66 | 1239.55 | -0.89 | -0.07% | 24.46% | 18.46% | 1.32 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3443.70 | 3437.64 | 6.06 | 0.18% | -19.41% | 15.77% | -1.23 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6036.80 | 6060.55 | -23.75 | -0.39% | -15.83% | 15.45% | -1.02 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1598.39 | 1590.08 | 8.30 | 0.52% | -22.88% | 17.00% | -1.35 | | Non - ferrous Metal Index NHNF | 1633.92 | 1638.83 | -4.92 | -0.30% | -11.71% | 14.36% | -0.82 | | Black Index NHFI | 2303.82 | 2309.83 | -6.02 | -0.26% | -27.09% | 21.50% | -1.26 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1063.47 | 1060.97 | 2.50 | 0.24% | -3.27% | 9.99% | -0.33 | | Mini Composite Index NHCIMi | 1106.93 | 1104.77 | 2.16 | 0.20% | -1.87% | 13.26% | -0.14 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1003.48 | 992.49 | 10.99 | 1.11% | -5.49% | 30.62% | -0.18 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 930.36 | 927.57 | 2.79 | 0.30% | -2.81% | 20.20% | -0.14 | | Coal - based Chemical Index NHCCI | 1011.08 | 1009.75 | 1.33 | 0.13% | -3.88% | 18.24% | -0.21 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFM | 919.14 | 920.24 | -1.10 | -0.12% | -5.79% | 21.20% | -0.27 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 713.42 | 716.04 | -2.63 | -0.37% | -5.49% | 15.66% | -0.35 | | Oilseeds Index NHOOl | 1190.91 | 1189.88 | 1.02 | 0.09% | -0.40% | 12.02% | -0.03 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 874.82 | 873.31 | 1.51 | 0.17% | -0.86% | 9.54% | -0.09% | [3] 3.2 Single - Variety Indices - The single - variety index with the largest increase was the Fuel Oil Index, rising 1.74%, and the single - variety index with the largest decline was the Plywood Index, falling -1.93% [3][4]. 3.3 Other Information - Some single - variety indices also showed changes in their positions. For example, the position change ratios of some products such as soda ash, eggs, and iron ore are provided, but the data presentation is incomplete [4]. - There are also some industry chain diagrams for parts of the energy - chemical and black sectors, showing the daily changes in the single - variety indices of related products [4][5].

南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年6月10日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 740-800 | 16.28% | 67.4% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | | | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 原木进口量偏高库存 高位，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企 业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | lg2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 800-785 9.5-14 | | | | | 买入看跌期权防止价格大跌，同时卖 出看涨期权降低资金成本 | lg2507P ...

国债期货日报 2025年6月 10日 消息博弈 观点：部分止盈，持仓观望 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货高开低走，午盘拉升翻红后窄幅震荡，全天小幅收涨。公开市场共4545亿逆回购到期，央行新 做1986亿，当日净回笼1738亿。 日内消息： 1.财政部社会保障司负责人葛志昊6月10日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，在"一老一小"服务方面，财政部 积极配合有关部门完善养老育幼服务体系，推进社区支持的居家养老服务，加强失能老年人照护服务，促 进普惠托育服务高质量发展，抓紧建立实施育儿补贴制度，有关工作正在加快推进，确保更好满足人民群 众对"一老一小"方面的服务需求。 行情研判： 资金依旧不贵，公开市场净回笼2559亿元，但早盘银行间匿名隔夜依旧有大量资金在1.35%附近， DR001加权1.36%较周一进一步走低，但非银流动性小幅收敛，交易所资金价格有所上行，但利率水平不 高。 T主力：净基差与基差 source： wind,南华研究 元 T净基差：主连 T基差：主连 10/31 12/31 02/28 04/30 -0.2 0 0.2 0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Sino-US tariff policy expectations continue to cause disturbances, and the Sino-US talks bring about periodic emotional fluctuations. However, the characteristics of the domestic downstream off-season are gradually emerging, with insufficient new orders from gauze factories. The driving force for cotton price rebound is weak, and the cotton price may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the previous high of 13,560 and the adjustment of the US foreign tariff policy [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.065 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0734 [3] - For inventory management when inventory is high and there are concerns about cotton price decline, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, sell call options (CF509C13800) at 200 - 250 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] - For procurement management when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 12,600 - 12,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (CF509P12800) at 150 - 200 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot cotton buying price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Situation Analysis Bullish Factors - In the 24/25 season, the cotton in northern Xinjiang has a high impurity content, high - quality resources are scarce, and the remaining cotton ownership is mostly concentrated in large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis [5] - Cotton inventory has decreased rapidly. As of the end of May, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 4.3998 million tons [5] Bearish Factors - The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and there is still some new cotton that has not been hedged [7] - The downstream is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales, a decline in the operating rate of gauze factories, general enthusiasm for raw material procurement, strong wait - and - see sentiment, and a slight increase in finished product inventory [7] Price Data Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,490, up 5 (0.04%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,475, unchanged (0%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,520, up 25 (0.19%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,820, down 75 (-0.38%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,725, down 15 (-0.08%) [6][8] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,223, up 98; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 15, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 45, down 25; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 30, up 20; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,230, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 891, up 25; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 677, unchanged [8] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was at 14,743, up 123 (0.84%); CCI 2227B was at 12,886, up 106 (0.83%); CCI 2129B was at 15,060, up 132 (0.88%); FCI Index S was at 13,946, up 31 (0.22%); FCI Index M was at 13,761, up 32 (0.23%); FCI Index L was at 13,530, up 31 (0.23%) [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View From June 8th to 13th, the second round of Sino-US economic and trade talks took place. The recent futures price trend is greatly affected by macro disturbances and is oscillating strongly. The price trend depends on the outcome of the talks. If there is no substantial increase in demand, styrene will gradually enter the off - season, with a weak fundamental outlook, and the price is likely to fall later [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 6,800 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.40% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 85.8% [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, strategies include shorting styrene futures (EB2507, 25% ratio, entry range 7,350 - 7,450 yuan/ton) and selling call options (EB2507C7500, 50% ratio, entry range 60 - 90) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low regular procurement inventory, strategies include buying styrene futures (EB2507, 50% ratio, entry range 7,100 - 7,200 yuan/ton) and selling put options (EB2507P7200, 75% ratio, entry range 80 - 110) [2]. 3.2 Core Contradiction The price trend of styrene futures is affected by the second round of Sino - US economic and trade talks. If there is no substantial increase in demand, the price is likely to fall as it enters the off - season [3]. 3.3利多解读 - **Inventory Reduction**: As of June 9, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons (-10.21%) from the previous period, indicating destocking [4]. - **Complementary Demand**: Downstream factories have low raw material inventories, and the demand for restocking supports the styrene price, with a strong basis in late June [4]. - **Positive Market Expectations**: Based on the phased results of the first round of talks, the market has positive expectations for the second round of Sino - US economic and trade talks, creating a warm market atmosphere [5]. - **Pure Benzene Price Increase**: Shandong refineries had smooth sales over the weekend. The complementary demand supported the increase in the pure benzene price, and Sinopec raised the listed price of pure benzene to 6,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3.4利空解读 - **Pure Benzene Inventory Increase**: As of June 9, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.76%. European supplies are expected to arrive in mid - to - late June, and the import volume of pure benzene in June is still expected to be high [6]. - **Supply Increase**: The previously shut - down units of pure benzene and styrene are gradually resuming production, and the supply is increasing [6]. - **Weak Downstream Follow - up**: The absolute price of styrene has increased, but the downstream 3S products have difficulty following the price increase [8]. - **Factory Inventory Increase**: As of June 5, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 191,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,800 tons (12.16%) [8]. 3.5 Price and Spread Data - **Styrene Basis Change**: The daily basis of styrene in East China shows an upward trend, with the basis of East China - EB06 increasing by 95 yuan/ton, East China - EB07 increasing by 50 yuan/ton, East China - EB08 increasing by 65 yuan/ton, and East China - EB09 increasing by 73 yuan/ton from June 9 to June 10, 2025 [9]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Chain Spread**: The spreads in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain have various changes, with some spreads increasing and some remaining stable [9]. - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The prices of various products in the styrene industry chain, such as crude oil, pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products, show different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of styrene in East China increased by 185 yuan/ton from June 9 to June 10, 2025 [10][11].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 10, 2025 - Authors: Yuan Ming (Z0012648), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - Short - term market sentiment has improved due to factors like the China - US leaders' phone call and technical buying in ferroalloys. However, the spot market is dragged down by steel mills' price pressure and weakening costs. In the context of the terminal steel demand entering the off - season, the long - term trend of ferroalloys remains relatively weak. The previous high - inventory negative factor is weakening, supply is low, and ferroalloys will continue the de - stocking trend. With the further reduction of Ningxia's electricity price this week and the arrival of the wet season in the South, the cost side is expected to decline. Coupled with the negative feedback expectation of the black market during the demand off - season, ferroalloys are expected to run weakly [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon iron price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 17.84%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 45.7% - Silicon manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 66.1% [2] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5300 - 5400, SM: 5300 - 5400 [2] 利多解读 Silicon Iron - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for silicon iron - Silicon iron has been falling continuously, and its low valuation has the possibility of a rebound - The total inventory of silicon iron shows a de - stocking trend [7] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry - The total inventory of silicon manganese shows a de - stocking trend - Silicon manganese has been falling continuously, and its low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [5][8] 利空解读 Silicon Iron - The port inventory of thermal coal is at a high level, the coal sector remains weak, and there is room for further decline in the electricity cost of ferroalloys. This week, the electricity price of ferroalloys in Ningxia fell below 0.4 yuan/kWh to 0.395 yuan/kWh - The weekly operating rate of silicon iron production enterprises is 32.78%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%. The weekly output of silicon iron is 97,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.61% [9] Silicon Manganese - In the long run, the real estate market is sluggish, the black market as a whole is declining, and the market doubts the growth of steel terminal demand, so the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak - The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese production enterprises is 35.03%, a week - on - week increase of 0.26%. The weekly output of silicon manganese is 171,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [10] Daily Data Silicon Iron - On June 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 276 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 70 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton - The spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline - The number of warehouse receipts was 15,415, a day - on - day decrease of 47 and a week - on - week decrease of 1038 [10] Silicon Manganese - On June 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 248 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 124 yuan/ton - The spot prices in different regions were relatively stable or slightly increased - The number of warehouse receipts was 100,048, a day - on - day decrease of 717 and a week - on - week decrease of 4530 [10][11]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The external market is strong under the expectation of China-US talks, and the market expects the data in the June USDA report to be basically stable. As it gradually enters the critical period of US soybean planting, the market is more sensitive to weather impacts. The domestic market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The supply pressure in the near - term makes the rebound of the M09 contract lack sustainable momentum. Under the background of the strong external market, it is difficult to short - sell the near - term contract alone. Therefore, it is more appropriate to go long on the far - term contract when the long - term logic of the far - term contract is not falsified [4] - There are multiple factors supporting the far - term contract, including the cost valuation support from the external market after China - US talks, the bullish sentiment in the far - term under the weather - related speculation, and the support from the Brazilian export premium [9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1746 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.309 [3] Hedging Strategies - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short - sell soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For feed mills with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they can short - sell soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - The cost valuation support from the external market after China - US talks is favorable for the far - term contract [9] - The bullish sentiment in the far - term under the weather - related speculation [9] - The support from the Brazilian export premium on the far - term contract price [9] Bearish Factors - The large supply pressure in the second - quarter carry - over and the third quarter will keep the spot basis weak, while the futures market is strong before the weather - related speculation [6] - The estimated soybean arrivals are 11 million tons in the subsequent part of June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, and the situation of China - US talks needs to be monitored in the fourth quarter [6] - In the rapeseed meal market, there is still supply pressure in June, the downstream demand is lower than expected, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. Although there are some supply gaps in the far - term, the rigid demand is limited. With the continuous meetings between China and Canada, the market is weak, and the China - Canada trade relationship should be focused on [6] Price and Spread - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal (01, 05, 09) and rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09) contracts, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB are provided. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3068, up 8 (0.26%) [7][10] - The price differences between different soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, as well as the spot prices, basis, and the difference between soybean and rapeseed meal are presented. For instance, the M01 - 05 spread is 336, up 4 [11] Import Cost and Profit - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans (23% tariff), Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are given. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4506.8065 yuan/ton, up 13.117 yuan/ton daily, and the import profit is - 692.2415 yuan/ton, up 13.117 yuan/ton daily [12]

Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: June 10, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current market focuses on bagging conditions and consumption impacts, and attention should be paid to early-maturing apple prices after mid-June [4] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather in some regions; bearish factors include less-than-expected overall yield reduction and the impact of seasonal fruits [5][6] Key Points by Content Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - The predicted monthly price range for apples is 7300 - 7900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.8% [3] - For inventory management, when worried about low apple purchase prices due to a potential new apple harvest, enterprises with long positions can short apple futures (AP2510) at a 50% hedging ratio in the 7600 - 7650 range to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when worried about high apple purchase prices due to a decline in old - crop apple inventory and potential new - crop apple production reduction, enterprises with short positions can buy apple futures (AP2510) at a 25% hedging ratio in the 7350 - 7450 range to lock in procurement costs [3] Market Factors Analysis Bullish Factors - Inventory in apple production areas is at a historical low. Low initial inventory and faster - than - usual de - stocking in the early stage have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the market [5] - Unstable weather in production areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest production area is poor, indicating a possible significant production reduction [5] Bearish Factors - The overall yield reduction based on bagging conditions is less than expected, and the bagging situation is relatively normal [6] - As the season for seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits such as watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices has impacted the apple market. High - priced fruits have few buyers, indicating weak consumption [6] Price Changes - On June 10, 2025, the closing prices of apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) showed various daily and weekly percentage changes. For example, AP01 closed at 7439 with a daily increase of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.54% [6] - Spot prices of different apple varieties (such as Qixia first - and second - grade 80) remained stable on that day, with no daily or weekly price changes [6] Inventory Status - The national cold - storage inventory is 138.2 (unit not specified), showing a decrease of 13.76 compared to a previous period. The national cold - storage inventory in another comparison is 136.5 with an increase of 9.81 [9] - Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, Henan, and Liaoning have different cold - storage capacity ratios, all showing a downward trend [9] - The arrival volume of apples at major wholesale markets in Guangdong (such as Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen) decreased on a weekly basis [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current market is in the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season, with a focus on the current and future Brazilian sugar production. The 24/25 Indian sugar production decrease and Thai increase are established facts. After the restriction of domestic syrup and premixes and the completion of domestic sugar crushing, the overall situation has little change. Recently, the market is mainly trading on the expected increase in production in Brazil, India, and Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5600 - 5800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.6% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SR509C6000) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30 to collect premiums and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5630 - 5680 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SR509P5600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Market Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Core Contradiction - The market is currently focused on the current and future Brazilian sugar production during the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season. The 24/25 Indian sugar production decrease and Thai increase are established, and after domestic restrictions and the end of domestic sugar crushing, the situation is relatively stable. The market is trading on the expected production increase in Brazil, India, and Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season [4]. 3.2.2 Bullish Factors - As of the end of May, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 464.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53.71 million tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 71.85%, a year - on - year increase of 5.39 percentage points [5]. - The Indian National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) expects India's 2024/25 sugar - crushing season's ending sugar inventory to be between 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixes [5]. - From the beginning of the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season to the first half of May, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (20.24%); the sugar - making ratio was 48.61%, a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (22.68%) [5]. 3.2.3 Bearish Factors - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, Guangxi's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons, but the mixed - sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2836 million tons, and the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [6]. - Analysis firm JOB predicts that Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [6]. - Thailand's 24/25 sugar - crushing season production is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [6]. - The Indian monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in India's sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, reaching about 35 million tons due to good monsoon conditions, expanded sugar - cane planting areas in major producing regions, and the government's increase in the minimum sugar - cane purchase price [6]. 3.3 Sugar Price Data 3.3.1 Sugar Basis Daily Changes - On June 9, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 490, with a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly increase of 13; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 310, with a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 3 [7]. 3.3.2 Sugar Futures Prices and Spreads - On June 10, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5580, with a daily decrease of 0.18% and a weekly decrease of 0.66%; the closing price of SR03 was 5554, with a daily decrease of 0.18% and a weekly decrease of 0.66%; etc. [9]. 3.3.3 Sugar Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On June 10, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 6080, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 10; the price of Liuzhou sugar was 6130, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 15; the price of Kunming sugar was 5900, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 45 [10]. 3.3.4 Sugar Import Price Daily Changes - On June 10, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4543, with a daily decrease of 12 and a weekly decrease of 48; the out - of - quota price was 5774, with a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 62 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On June 10, Treasury bond futures closed higher, with TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.01%, and 0.08% respectively. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal, and the weighted average rate of DR007 fell back to around 1.51%. The domestic economic data in May was weak, which may support the bond market. The short - term interest rate is expected to drive the long - term interest rate down slightly, but further monetary policy easing is needed to break through the previous low. It is expected that the main contracts of bond futures will show a relatively strong oscillating trend this week, and investors are advised to maintain a certain position [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Closing Price and Volume**: T main contract closed at 108.995, up 0.01%; TF at 106.135, up 0.01%; TS at 102.442, unchanged; TL at 120.160, up 0.07%. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 12,693, 2,506, 10,233, and 12,885 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, etc. showed different changes, with some rising and some falling [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased. Among the top 20 long and short positions, the long positions of T, TF, TS, and TL increased by 2,515, 987, 901, and 2,815 respectively, and the short positions increased by 3,790, - 61, 673, and 2,349 respectively [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Price**: Some CTD bonds' net prices had changes, such as 2500802.IB rising 0.2982, while 240020.IB falling 0.0007 and 0.0111 respectively [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds changed by 0, 0.75bp, 0.46bp, - 0.25bp, and 0.35bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight rate rose 4.05bp to 1.3705%, and the 7 - day rate rose 10bp to 1.5500%. Shibor overnight fell 1.6bp to 1.3620%, and Shibor 7 - day fell 0.1bp to 1.4960% [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The central bank's open - market operation had an issuance scale of 198.6 billion yuan, a maturity scale of 454.5 billion yuan, and a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - On June 10, the Ministry of Finance is actively involved in improving the "one old and one young" service system. The human resources and social security department will study and formulate insurance - participation policies for specific groups [2] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On June 11 at 20:30, the US May unadjusted CPI annual rate; on June 12 at 20:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 [3]