Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the coking coal futures market is experiencing weakness, with the main contract trading at 1531.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.08% [1] - As of April 16, the price of dry quenching coke in Tangshan, Hebei, has increased by 55 CNY/ton, reaching a range of 1595-1630 CNY/ton [2] - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises has risen to 73.51%, with an average daily output of 524,500 tons, marking a three-month high [2] Group 2 - The overall inventory of coking coal remains high, with a slight decrease in independent coking enterprises' inventory, while steel mills' coking coal inventory has decreased by 0.54% to 6.644 million tons [2] - The increase in domestic coking coal prices has made imported coking coal more cost-effective, leading to a significant rise in port inventories, which increased by 163,300 tons to 2.9363 million tons [2] - Institutions suggest that the coking coal price is likely to remain weak in the short term due to various macroeconomic disturbances and reduced trade purchasing enthusiasm [3]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/04/18 EIA报告：美国至4月4日当周EIA原油库存 255.3万桶，预期142.1万桶，前值616.5万桶。美国俄克拉荷马州库欣原油 库存 68.1万桶，前值237.3万桶。美国至4月4日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 27.6万桶，前值28.5万桶。美国至4月4日当 周EIA汽油库存 -160万桶，预期-151.3万桶，前值-155.1万桶。精炼油库存 -354.4万桶，预期26.4万桶，前值26.4万 桶。EIA精炼厂设备利用率 86.7%，预期86.5%，前值86%。 本周（3月10日）主营开工率上升、山东地炼开工率提升。汽柴油产量汽涨柴跌，主营汽柴均涨、地炼汽柴均跌，地炼 产销率汽柴均跌，未到产销平衡。本周汽油去库0.51%，柴油累库2.44%，其中地炼汽柴均涨、主营、社会汽跌柴涨。 主营综合利润环比上涨，地炼综合利润上涨。 三、周度观点 本周油价宽幅波动，仍受美国对贸易伙伴加征关税引发宏观情绪影响。特朗普宣布暂缓对除中国外"对等关税"三个月。欧盟投票通 过对美国关税反制措施，不涉及能源品种。4月11日美国联邦政府同意对电子产品免除所谓"对等关税"。基本面 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至4月16日收盘主力合约多晶硅2506,涨跌-1.06%,成交量7.41万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 多，差额头寸为7814手。 多晶硅期货全合约总计成交8.77万手，比上一日新增1.12万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓4.42万手，比上一日增加4310手。全合约 前20席位空头持仓3.64万手，比上一日增加1924手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货（代客），总持仓8331、中信建投（代客），总持仓5803、国泰君安期货（代 客），总持仓4211；空头前三席位为国泰君安期货（代客），总持仓7172、中信建投（代客），总持仓5376、中信期货（代 客），总持仓4863； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：中信期货（代客）、持仓8331、增仓1276，银河期货（代客）、持仓2214、增仓 742，中信建投（代客）、持仓5803、增仓549；多头减仓前三名分别是：中泰期货（代客）、持仓1374、减仓-157，华泰期货 （代客）、持仓2408、减仓-153，东证期货（代客）、持仓1510、减仓-131； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：中信期货（代客） ...

南华商品指数：能化板块领涨，黑色板块下跌 王怡琳 2025-04-17 16:53:50 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数上涨0.85%。板块指数中，只有南华黑色指数，下 跌-0.19%，其余板块均是上涨，涨幅最大的板块是南华能化指数，涨幅为0.98%，涨幅最小的板块是南华贵金 属指数，涨幅为0.25%。 主题指数中，涨幅最大的主题指数是能源指数，上涨2.16%，涨幅最小的主题指数是 煤制化工指数，涨幅为0.26%，跌幅最大的主题指数是建材指数，跌幅为-0.35%，跌幅最小的主题指数是黑色 原材料指数，跌幅为-0.33%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是低硫燃料油，上涨3.3 2025年4月17日 南华指数小组 曹扬慧 (Z0000505) 赵 搏 (F03103098) 王怡琳 (F03118352) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 南华商品指数市场数据 | 指数名标 | 今收擋 | 昨收盘 | 点数 | 日帰 | 年化收益率 | 年化波动率 | Sharpe | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term rating of "fluctuation intensifies" for copper [1] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's possible non - cooperation with interest rate cuts has reduced market expectations, and copper prices may continue to correct. In the short term, the rebound of Shanghai copper may have temporarily peaked, with weak and volatile trends in the short term, and there is a risk of significant decline due to concerns about economic recession [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Shanghai copper closed at 75,260 yuan/ton (- 0.93%), London copper at $9,188.5/ton (+ 0.27%), New York copper at $4.6760/pound (+ 1.44%), Shanghai electrolytic copper premium at 95 yuan/ton, LME (0 - 3) at - $173.5/ton, and futures exchange inventories started to accumulate [1] News Situation - Fed Chairman Powell's speech indicated that Trump's tariff measures put the Fed in a dilemma. Powell may prioritize inflation control, which reduced market interest - rate cut expectations, causing US stocks to fall and the US dollar index to rise. Copper prices may correct [2] Trading Logic - In the short term, the rebound of Shanghai copper may have temporarily peaked, with weak and volatile trends, and beware of significant decline due to trading economic recession. The deepening of negative processing fees increases the possibility of supply cuts, and smelting production may decline in April. The positive effect of the consumption peak season is weakening [3] Strategy Suggestion - Pay attention to the strategy of buying put options [4]

贵金属产业日报 2025-04-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 781.6 | 17.16 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8233 | 75 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 205198 | 4204 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 345538 | 6170 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 97314 | 3234 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 168555 | 3036 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 15678 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 962534 | 9826 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 775.5 | 12.9 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8186 | 67 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -6.1 | -4.26 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) | -47 | -8 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The current market has basically priced in the negative impact of overseas tariff policies and the positive impact of domestic policies, and the impact of tariff policies on the A-share market has diminished. With a relatively quiet news background, the trading volume of the two markets has continued to shrink, approaching 1 trillion yuan. Today, the large-cap stock index was relatively resilient, and the dividend index led the gains. Market sentiment was cautious. The historical quantiles of the volume-weighted average basis of IF, IC, and IM were all below 5%, at historical lows. The market is waiting for a new round of drivers, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range [6] Group 3: Market Review - Today, the stock index showed mixed performance, with the large-cap index closing higher and the small and medium-cap index closing lower. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 20.028 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC declined with increasing volume, IH rose with decreasing volume, and IM declined with decreasing volume [4] Group 4: Important Information - US Treasury bonds were sold off, and the US dollar index declined, which was interpreted by the market as a significant decline in global investors' confidence in US dollar assets. US Treasury Secretary Bezant tried to downplay the impact of the recent heavy selling of US Treasury bonds, refuting the market speculation that foreign investment institutions had significantly sold off US Treasury bonds, and stating that the US Treasury Department has a "policy toolbox" to deal with abnormal turbulence and market imbalances in the Treasury bond market, including increasing the Treasury Department's repurchase of Treasury bond assets [5] - Major cities have successively released their 2025 land supply plans or annual housing development plans. Under the policy orientation of strictly controlling new supply, the supply of residential land in most cities has significantly decreased this year [5] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Group 6: Futures Index Market Observation - The intraday percentage changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were -0.12%, 0.08%, -0.09%, and -0.22% respectively [7] - The trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 93,397, 45,782, 92,479, and 225,722 respectively [7] - The trading volume changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 0.0759, -0.2514, 0.6933, and -0.8173 respectively [7] - The open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 266,683, 93,043, 213,688, and 332,317 respectively [7] - The open interest changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 3,409, -456, 2,548, and -1,397 respectively [7] Group 7: Spot Market Observation - The percentage change of the Shanghai Composite Index was 0.15% [8] - The percentage change of the Shenzhen Component Index was -0.27% [8] - The ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks was 0.86 [8] - The trading volume of the two markets was 107.7194 billion yuan, with a decrease of 20.028 billion yuan compared to the previous period [8]

南华期货铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/04/15 南华期货黑色研究团队 周甫翰 投资咨询证号 Z0020173 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石05合约月度价格预测（4月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 740-810 | 24.16% | 48.7% | 关税落地但反复，市场不确定性减弱，但需求预期仍差，短期铁矿石估值修复，但继续向上缺乏驱动。整 体方向偏空，但注意反弹的节奏。 【利好解读】 1.当前铁水产量同比增长，铁水在较高位置 2. 钢厂利润尚可 source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（4月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | | 买卖方向 套保比例 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2505 | 空 | 40% | 770-790 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chuangyuan Futures is preparing for an IPO with a counseling period set from January 1, 2025, to April 10, 2025, following its filing on December 29, 2023 [2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Chuangyuan Futures reported revenue of 3.099 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.74% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.16% to 21.13 million yuan compared to the same period last year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin fell to 0.94% from 1.69% year-on-year [3]. - The basic earnings per share decreased by 33.33% to 0.02 yuan [3]. Management Team - Wu Wensheng serves as the Chairman and has been with the company since 2011, holding various positions prior [4]. - Dong Jingsu is the General Manager and Board Secretary, with a history in the company since 2004 [5]. - Bu Liuqi is the Chief Risk Officer, with extensive experience in the futures and securities industry since 1990 [5].

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至4月14日收盘主力合约锡2505,涨跌+3.02%,成交量18.15万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净空， 差额头寸为126手。 (*文中全合约指交易所公布持仓成交数据的所有合约) 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓2269、增仓282，长江期货、持仓525、增仓127，海证期货、持仓 485、增仓100；多头减仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓3284、减仓-901，海通期货、持仓1914、减仓-331，中泰期货、持仓 535、减仓-280； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓1804、增仓233，国泰君安、持仓2928、增仓231，华泰期货、持 仓627、增仓102；空头减仓前三名分别是：中泰期货、持仓1352、减仓-200，南华期货、持仓782、减仓-185，银河期货、持仓 1258、减仓-162。 文章来源:新浪期货 2025年4月14日锡主力合约2505持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 増減 | | --- | --- | --- | ...