2025 年 07 月 02 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆收平，连粕或反弹震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面或震荡 【宏观及行业新闻】 7 月 1 日 CBOT 大豆日评：大豆稳中微涨，因豆油上涨抵消作物良好的影响。北京德润林 2025 年 7 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4127 | -20（-0.48%） 4126 -3（-0.07%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2961 | +3（+0.10%） 2953 -8（-0.27%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1027.5 | +0.0（+0.00%） | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 287.5 | n a -2.0（-0.69%） | | | | | 豆粕 （43 ...

蛋白粕丨月报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 期货从业资格证号： F03113318 周度数据，新作大豆优良率较高，截至 6 月 29 日，大豆出苗率 94%，上期值 90%，去年同期 94%，五年均值 95%。开花率 17%，上期 值 8%，去年同期 18%，五年均值 16%。结荚率 3%，去年同期 3%，五年 均值 2%。优良率 66%，上期值 66%，去年同期 67%。 期货投资咨询证书： 阿根廷大豆收获完毕，农户们"抢售"赶在 7 月 1 日关税优惠到 期前甩卖大豆类产品。6 月 26 日国内多家大型贸易商采购阿根廷共 3 万吨豆粕，带动内外盘下跌。这是自 2019 年中阿协议签署后首次。 Z0018777 2025 年 7 月 1 日 美豆种植面积未作调整，关注产区天气与后续发船 近期国内外蛋白粕期货行情回顾及分析： （一）豆粕：6 月最后一周，内外盘粕类油脂，走势显著分化 最新要点：USDA 种植面积报告与季末库存报告；油粕驱动分化 6 月底 USDA 发布两份季度报告，预计 2025 年大豆播种面积 8340 万英亩，符合预期，相比 6 月 WASDE 报调整很 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the severe impact of ongoing US-China trade tensions on American ginseng growers, particularly in Wisconsin, which produces 98% of the US ginseng supply [1] - Due to trade disputes, shipments to China have stalled since April, leading to a significant accumulation of unsold ginseng in warehouses and a decline in prices [1][2] - The US exported $32.5 million worth of ginseng to mainland China and Hong Kong last year, accounting for 83% of the global export total for this product [1] Group 2 - Many ginseng growers are exiting the industry due to low prices and high investment costs, with some reducing their planting areas or ceasing operations altogether [2] - The wholesale export volume of ginseng decreased by 10% to 15% last year, attributed to the uncertainty created by the "Trump effect" on trade policies [2] - The domestic ginseng market in the US has shrunk by 25% over the past two years, with growers now focusing on the Asian American community while facing challenges from tariffs and geopolitical tensions [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International corn market is expected to be loose as major producers' output is likely to increase, and global corn prices will likely maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [2][35] - In the domestic market, before the new crop is launched, the supply - demand situation of corn is generally tight, but considering imports, substitutes, and policy - sourced grains, the overall energy raw material supply is sufficient. After the new corn is launched in the fourth quarter, the corn market may face pressure [2][35] - In the third quarter, the general idea is to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up. In the fourth quarter, pay attention to the new crop's launch. If the output is good, a bearish view is advisable [2][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the first half of 2025, domestic corn prices rose from a low level. Futures prices rose less than spot prices due to the previous premium. The spot price at Jinzhou Port increased from around 2,050 yuan in early January to around 2,380 yuan. Dalian corn futures led the increase, but the upward trend slowed down in the second quarter with several adjustments [4] 2. International Corn Market Analysis 2.1 US Corn Supply Expected to Increase Significantly - The USDA's May report estimated that the 2025/26 corn planting area in the US will be 95.3 million acres, with a yield of 181 bushels per acre and a total output of 15.8 billion bushels. Supply is expected to increase significantly compared to the previous year, and consumption will increase steadily, leading to a significant rise in ending stocks [6] 2.2 South American G2 Output Resumes Growth and Exports Are Expected to Increase - In 2024/25, Brazil's corn output is estimated to be 130 million tons, and Argentina's is 50 million tons. For 2025/26, Brazil's output is expected to be 131 million tons, and Argentina's is 53 million tons. Brazil and Argentina's exports are likely to increase in the coming months with the launch of Brazil's second - season corn [9] 2.3 Ukraine's Supply Capacity Expected to Recover - Ukraine's 2025/26 corn output is estimated to be 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons from the previous year. Exports will recover to 24 million tons, and ending stocks will be 597,000 tons [11] 2.4 Regions Outside China to See Slightly Looser Supply - Demand - In 2025/26, the corn output of regions outside China will be 970 million tons, an increase of about 42 million tons from 2024/25. Exports are expected to be 195 million tons, an increase of about 7 million tons from the previous year, and ending stocks will reach 9.407 million tons, an increase of about 7 million tons [15] 3. Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.1 2025/26 Output to Increase Slightly - The 2025/26 domestic corn output is expected to be 296 million tons, an increase of about 1 million tons from the previous year. The total planting area will remain stable with a slight increase, ensuring domestic supply [16] 3.2 Imports: Later Imports to Increase - In 2024/25, the cumulative corn imports were 1.52 million tons, a decrease of about 19.2 million tons from the previous year. The theoretical import profit has expanded, and with the launch of Brazil's second - season corn, later imports are expected to increase significantly [20] 3.3 Demand: Expanding Breeding Scale and Increasing Feed Consumption - From January to May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 130.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The recovery of the pig and poultry breeding industries will support the consumption of pig and poultry feed [25] 3.4 Deep - processing: Weak Economic Situation and Decreasing Deep - processing Demand - Due to the weak macro - economic situation, the consumption of deep - processed corn products has declined. The corn processing volume of sample deep - processing enterprises decreased by about 4% year - on - year. Corn starch deep - processing is not expected to improve significantly [28][30] 3.5 Substitutes: Domestic Raw Materials Key to Filling the Energy Raw Material Gap - Wheat has a substitution advantage over corn in North China, but large - scale substitution has not occurred in the South. The impact of imported substitutes on domestic corn is weakening. The auctions of aged rice and imported corn are uncertain factors [32] 4. Conclusion and Outlook - The international corn market is expected to be loose, and domestic corn supply will be tight before the new crop is launched. After the new crop is launched in the fourth quarter, the market may face pressure. In the third quarter, buy on dips; in the fourth quarter, be bearish if the output is good [35]

Group 1 - The collaboration between Qingdao and Gansu's Dingxi and Longnan cities has resulted in significant agricultural development, including the establishment of blueberry greenhouses and the introduction of high-value crops like water bamboo [1][2] - Qingdao has sent 113 officials and 2,735 specialized talents to support agricultural projects, coordinating procurement and sales worth 95.91 billion yuan, and facilitating 320 industrial cooperation projects with 59.4 billion yuan in actual funds [1] - The "dry to wet" project in Longnan has transformed barren land into productive rice fields, with expected yields of 10,000 yuan per mu, significantly increasing local income and employment opportunities [2][3] Group 2 - Qingdao's investment of 1.01 billion yuan in the Longnan mushroom industry park aims to create a full industrial chain, benefiting nearly 1,000 farmers and generating an average income increase of over 3,000 yuan per household [3][4] - The potato industry in Dingxi has seen improvements in yield from 2,000 jin to 8,500 jin per mu through irrigation and modern agricultural practices, with plans to invest over 40 million yuan annually for standardized base construction [4][5] - The establishment of the "Dingxi Wide Noodle" brand and the introduction of new technologies are enhancing product quality and market presence, contributing to local economic growth [5] Group 3 - Qingdao has invested 43 million yuan in the oil olive industry in Longnan, establishing a modern agricultural industrial park and introducing multiple projects to enhance the local processing industry [6] - The introduction of the Tiancheng Pharmaceutical project in Dingxi, with a total investment of 1.43 billion yuan, is expected to generate an annual output value of around 2 billion yuan and create approximately 600 jobs [7][8] - The collaboration has also focused on developing a supply chain for traditional Chinese medicine, enhancing the value of local medicinal herbs through modern processing techniques [9] Group 4 - The establishment of the "Qingding Smart Valley" incubator aims to transform technological achievements from Qingdao into local enterprises, with over 70% of registered companies being technology-based [9] - The introduction of a 500 million yuan AI platform project is expected to create a digital industry cluster worth over 1 billion yuan, positioning Dingxi as a significant computing power hub in Gansu [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a peanut semi - annual research report dated June 27, 2025 [9][24][32] Group 2: International Peanut Situation - In 2024, among major peanut - producing countries, China accounted for 37% (1900 thousand tons), India 22% (1149 thousand tons), Nigeria 14% (710 thousand tons), the US 8% (430 thousand tons), and other countries had smaller shares [12] Group 3: Domestic Peanut Fundamentals Price Trends - There are price trend charts for Henan Zhengyang general - purpose peanuts, Shandong oil - type peanuts, peanut continuous contracts, and peanut continuous contract basis from 2021 - 2025 [15][18] Import and Export - There are cumulative import and export volume charts for Chinese peanut kernels, peanut oil from 2020 - 2025. In 2025, the import volume of peanut kernels in May was 67148 tons with a year - on - year decrease of 0.795343, and in April it was 53637 tons with a year - on - year decrease of 0.779907 [25][29] Peanut Oil Factory Indicators - There are charts for peanut oil factory peanut kernel inventory,开机率, peanut oil factory pressing volume, pressing profit, peanut oil and soybean oil price difference, peanut oil factory peanut oil price, peanut meal and soybean meal price difference, Shandong peanut meal price, and peanut oil factory peanut oil inventory from 2021 - 2025 [34][36][40][42][47] Planting Cost and Area - In 2025, the estimated total peanut planting costs per mu in Jilin, Shandong, Henan, and Liaoning Xingcheng were 1708 yuan, 1361 yuan, 1347 yuan, and 1901 yuan respectively. The national peanut planting area in 2025 was 4905 thousand hectares, showing an increase compared to previous years [50][52] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The report has a section on future outlook and strategy recommendation, but specific content is not provided [53]

Core Viewpoint - The development of the "Yellow River·Rice Town Bay" brand in Jiyang District exemplifies the integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism, aiming for high-quality development and enhancing the city's image [1][2][6]. Group 1: Brand Development - Jiyang District is leveraging its unique cultural resources, such as Yellow River culture and farming culture, to enhance the "Yellow River·Rice Town Bay" brand, thereby increasing its recognition [2]. - The "Yellow River·Rice Town Bay" area features a 12-kilometer ecological corridor along the Yellow River, connecting three distinctive groups and creating seasonal experiences that promote rural revitalization [2][6]. - The district has successfully launched various tourism initiatives, including the "Taste the Seasons, Enjoy Jiyang" regional tourism brand, showcasing the integration of agriculture and tourism [2][3]. Group 2: Cultural Initiatives - Jiyang District emphasizes cultural development as the core of rural revitalization, launching educational tourism programs and establishing multiple research bases to attract students [4]. - Each village within the "Yellow River·Rice Town Bay" area has developed its own cultural identity, contributing to local tourism and economic growth [4][6]. - The district has implemented various cultural activities and projects to promote social values and community engagement, enhancing the overall cultural landscape [5]. Group 3: Economic Growth - The integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism has significantly boosted economic growth, with local industries experiencing substantial development and job creation [6][7]. - Jiyang District has organized numerous festivals and events, attracting over 1.2 million visitors and generating more than 500 million yuan in local consumption [6][7]. - The district's agricultural sector, particularly in specialty crops like Renfeng watermelon and Quti cucumber, has seen a production value exceeding 4 billion yuan, contributing to the overall economic vitality [7].

Core Insights - The USDA planting acreage report and quarterly inventory report are set to be released on July 1, with market expectations indicating a slight increase in soybean planting area [1] - There is speculation about whether the report will contain any surprises that exceed market expectations [1] Summary by Categories - **USDA Reports** - The upcoming USDA reports are highly anticipated, particularly the planting acreage and quarterly inventory data [1] - **Market Expectations** - Analysts predict a modest growth in soybean planting area, which could influence market dynamics [1] - **Potential Surprises** - There is a focus on the possibility of unexpected results in the reports that could impact market sentiment and trading strategies [1]

USDA干旱报告：美国大豆、玉米产区受干旱影响区域比例小幅缩小，对大豆、玉米价格影响如何？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1 - The introduction of gray jujube from Henan to Xinjiang has led to its emergence as the highest yielding jujube variety in China, with significant contributions to the local economy [1] - The launch of jujube futures by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2019 has facilitated price discovery and risk management, while also promoting quality improvement and industry transformation [1][2] - The lack of unified standards previously hindered the economic benefits of the jujube industry, but the futures market has helped establish clear product standards, enhancing market liquidity and efficiency [1][2] Group 2 - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has focused on practical market needs in developing jujube futures delivery standards, converting subjective descriptions into specific quantitative indicators to enhance industry efficiency [2] - The establishment of a unified national market is a significant decision by the central government aimed at promoting high-quality development, with Henan leveraging its local industry advantages to support this initiative [2][4] - The futures market has played a crucial role in standardizing the jujube industry, leading to improved quality and competitive pricing, which benefits both producers and traders [1][4] Group 3 - Henan is a leading province in peanut production, with over 500,000 acres dedicated to high oleic peanuts, supporting the development of peanut futures and contributing to industry upgrades [3] - The introduction of peanut futures has led to a unified quality standard and diverse pricing models, addressing market information asymmetries and promoting large-scale, standardized production [3][4] - Henan hosts the majority of standardized production bases for green food raw materials (peanuts) in China, enhancing the overall quality and safety of peanut products [3][4] Group 4 - "Henan standards" are becoming a benchmark for the national peanut market, with Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange actively supporting the establishment of unified standards across various agricultural sectors [4] - The integration of spot and futures markets in Henan is contributing to the establishment of a unified national market for agricultural products like peanuts and jujubes, promoting modernization and efficiency [4]