Core Viewpoint - The overall market performance this year has been positive, with most stocks rising, but there is significant differentiation based on fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The cyclical industries are facing weak overall demand, while some sectors benefit from positive supply-side changes, showing signs of profit recovery [1] - The real estate sector continues to see declines in both volume and price, with over half of the companies reporting losses in the first three quarters [1] - The banking sector has shown weak cyclical characteristics, but has gained positive returns this year due to a bottoming out of interest margins [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company has focused on learning about new sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which occupy a significant portion of research time [1][2] - The investment framework has led to a low turnover rate in the portfolio, indicating a cautious approach to new investments [2] Group 3: Valuation and Decision-Making - Understanding a stock's value involves both quantitative and qualitative assessments, particularly in rapidly evolving industries where predicting worst-case scenarios is challenging [4] - The concept of "weight" in stocks is emphasized, where long-term dividend discounting is crucial for investment decisions [4] - Different investment philosophies, such as focusing on profit growth versus long-term value accumulation, can lead to divergent investment decisions even with similar fundamental understandings [4] Group 4: Risk Assessment - The value of an investment can be likened to a chicken's ability to lay eggs, with various risks associated with predicting long-term performance [5] - Negative imagination is encouraged as a means to mitigate potential losses, contrasting with overly optimistic predictions [5] Group 5: Historical Performance - The company has outperformed the CSI 300 Total Return Index in four out of the last seven years, indicating a relatively stable excess return despite some fluctuations [7]

Market Overview - The stock market in November experienced fluctuations, with major technology indices undergoing adjustments, including the ChiNext Index, STAR Market 50, and Hang Seng Technology Index, while the Shanghai Composite Index has largely digested the pressure above 4000 points [1][8] - Domestic industrial sectors are advancing anti-involution policies, which are expected to stabilize and rebound industrial product prices, with the PPI deflation situation likely to improve [1][8] - The demand outlook for the domestic real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak, and the trend of domestic manufacturing investment shifting overseas is expected to continue, leading to cautious capacity expansion across various industries [1][9] Real Estate Sector - The pressure of asset deflation remains significant, highlighted by the Vanke bond default event, marking the final phase of "clearing" in the real estate industry [2][9] - Since Q3, the pace of housing price declines in first- and second-tier cities has accelerated, leading to substantial pressure on residents' asset values [2][9] - The ongoing shrinkage of real estate assets is expected to continue impacting consumer growth, necessitating macroeconomic policies in 2026 to stabilize the situation [2][9] AI Industry Insights - The AI industry is currently viewed as being in the "early stage of bubble formation," with the AI technology revolution beginning with the launch of ChatGPT 3.5 at the end of 2022, expected to last for decades [3][10] - AI infrastructure is identified as a key feature of the first phase of the AI technology revolution, akin to the historical adoption of steam engines, electricity, and the internet [3][11] - The large-scale application of AI is crucial for the sustainability of AI infrastructure, with significant user bases already established, such as 800 million weekly active users for GPT and 250 million MAU for domestic platforms [4][12] Future Outlook - The market is currently in a "healthy bull market pause," where adjustments present opportunities for research and positioning for 2026 [2][10] - The "Google moment" is anticipated to be a pivotal point for AI applications, with the potential for significant economic value creation if Google can enhance user experiences through AI models [4][12] - The focus on technology innovation and industry growth is expected to yield investment returns in the long term, despite current market adjustments [5][13]

产业政策：迈向 2035 年的关键密码 证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 "十五五"系列研究报告 产业政策：迈向 2035 年的关键密码 2025 证 12 证 04 证 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 证010-8092 8096 证zhangjun _yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130523070003 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 许冬石 证010-8357 -4134 证xudongshi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130515030003 研究助理：刘小逸 风险提示 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 ⚫ 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 2025 证证证证证证证证证证证证证·证证 证证证证证证证证证证 ...

Core Insights - Lenovo's Eco Roadshow Season will launch in Hangzhou on December 10, collaborating with the Shangcheng District government to create a "green channel" for hard technology to access industrial centers [1][5] - The event aims to support innovation by providing a comprehensive support system for small and medium enterprises in the industry chain, facilitating the transition from technology validation to large-scale production [3][4] Group 1: Event Overview - The event will focus on AI PC edge intelligence, AI hardware and interaction, industry intelligence, and smart manufacturing, showcasing ten carefully selected high-quality projects [6] - Lenovo has prepared substantial support for outstanding projects, including investment opportunities up to 100 million yuan, PoC project validation resources, and access to Lenovo's factory production lines [6] Group 2: Regional Significance - Hangzhou is recognized as a benchmark city for digital economy and AI innovation, attracting top AI research talent and advanced industry clusters, creating a fertile ground for AI startups [5] - The "Hangzhou Six Little Dragons" represent successful AI-driven companies that have emerged from this innovative ecosystem, achieving breakthroughs in various fields such as large models, robotics, and brain-machine interfaces [5] Group 3: Partnership and Collaboration - Lenovo's Innovation Accelerator will sign a memorandum of cooperation with the Shangcheng District government, establishing a long-term mutual empowerment system centered in Hangzhou, extending to the Yangtze River Delta [5] - The partnership aims to provide continuous industrial connections, collaborative research and development, ecological openness, capital support, brand empowerment, and service empowerment for regional enterprises [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a shift from speculative trading to value reassessment, as evidenced by the divergence in valuations between high-growth AI stocks and undervalued blue-chip stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The average valuation of the CSI 300 index has quietly fallen below the 20th percentile of the past five years, indicating a significant market correction [1]. - The past two years have seen a typical cycle of "herding-dispersion-collapse" in the market, particularly with high-growth stocks, leading to extreme valuations detached from fundamentals [3]. - High-growth stocks with P/E ratios exceeding 100 have experienced an average drawdown of 45% since the beginning of 2024, while stocks with P/B ratios below 1 have seen net inflows [3]. Group 2: Value Opportunities - Low-valued blue-chip stocks, particularly in the banking sector, are showing unique investment appeal, with one major state-owned bank having a P/E ratio of only 4.5 and a dividend yield of 6.2% [3]. - The decline in non-performing loan ratios for leading banks over eight consecutive quarters and signs of stabilizing net interest margins highlight the resilience of fundamentals against valuation discounts [3]. - The transition from a "storytelling" market to one focused on performance metrics provides a solid foundation for the revaluation of undervalued blue-chip stocks [3]. Group 3: Macro Factors - Structural changes in the macroeconomic and policy environment are driving the shift in market styles, with the central bank's focus moving from "broad monetary policy" to "broad credit policy" since 2025 [4]. - The end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle and the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate have led to a resurgence of northbound capital inflows into A-shares, particularly in the banking sector [4]. - In the third quarter, northbound capital net purchases of bank stocks exceeded 30 billion yuan, marking a two-year quarterly high, while the AI sector saw a net outflow of 18 billion yuan [4]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The market oscillates between extremes of overvaluation and undervaluation, and the end of speculative trading in high-growth stocks signals a re-evaluation of the safety margin and growth certainty of undervalued blue-chip companies [5]. - Investors are encouraged to seek out undervalued companies that consistently generate cash flow and return dividends to shareholders, as these firms are likely to shine in the wave of value recovery [5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The records discuss the economic landscape in the United States and China, focusing on the differentiation between new and old economies, particularly in the context of rising bond rates and economic pressures [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Challenges in the U.S.**: The U.S. economy is facing "three highs" challenges: high inflation, high interest rates, and high wages, leading to increased operational costs for traditional businesses and significant economic downward pressure [1][4]. - **Differentiation in Economic Sectors**: There is a clear divide between new and old economies in both the U.S. and China. In the U.S., sectors related to AI and technology are experiencing rapid investment growth, while traditional industries like automotive manufacturing are under pressure from tariffs and rising costs [5]. In China, although emerging industries are growing quickly, they still represent a small portion of the economy, with traditional sectors like real estate facing significant downward pressure [5]. - **Market Trends**: Funds are increasingly flowing into emerging industries in the stock market, while the bond market is attracting capital due to the financing needs of traditional industries and favorable monetary policies [6]. The U.S. stock market is considered overvalued, but not to an extreme level compared to historical bubbles [6]. - **Electricity Consumption and Metal Usage**: The records highlight that electricity consumption in emerging sectors like AI and chips is increasing, while traditional sectors like real estate show lower consumption. Additionally, demand for copper is strong, while demand for rebar is weak, indicating a disparity in resource utilization between new and old industries [7]. - **Gold Price Dynamics**: Gold prices are performing strongly despite the overall economic conditions. This is attributed to a divergence in the relationship between gold prices and bond yields, as well as the copper-gold ratio, which has been declining while bond yields remain high [8]. This suggests a market contradiction where new economic sectors are thriving while old sectors face challenges, leading investors to seek safety in gold and bonds [8]. Other Important Insights - **Employment and Consumer Confidence**: The U.S. is experiencing deteriorating non-farm employment data, with rising layoffs and consumer confidence hitting historical lows, indicating significant issues within the traditional economy [4]. - **China's Market Performance**: In 2025, China's stock market is performing well, with the bond market outperforming stocks. This performance is closely linked to capital returns, which are influenced by trade surpluses and fiscal deficits [9]. The strong capital returns are driving the stock market's performance, highlighting the impact of new and old economic differentiation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a structural bull market driven by "structural inflation" in technology assets, despite a backdrop of consumer deflation and overall economic challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Structural Inflation in Technology Assets - The bull market resembles the structural bull market of 2014-2015, primarily benefiting technology stocks, while consumer sectors have generally declined [2]. - Significant inflationary trends are observed in technology-related assets, including a 40% increase in AI training cluster rental prices and a 30% rise in average costs for AI servers [3]. - The ChiNext Index has surged by 54%, indicating strong performance in the technology sector [3]. Group 2: Policy and Investment Dynamics - The rise in technology stocks is largely driven by government policies focusing on "new productive forces," "self-control," and "AI+" initiatives, leading to concentrated financial resources in sectors like semiconductors and AI [4]. - Despite two years of monetary easing, CPI and PPI have continued to decline, while stock prices have risen, indicating a disparity in capital allocation favoring technology assets [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The inflation in technology assets is influenced by both supply-side and demand-side factors, with supply constraints due to U.S. restrictions on high-tech exports to China and a focus on self-sufficiency in technology [6][7]. - Investment in AI infrastructure is a key demand driver, with ongoing fiscal support expected to continue for the next five years [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current cycle of technology asset inflation is anticipated to persist for at least the next two years, driven by ongoing advancements in AI capabilities and infrastructure investments [5][7]. - The AI infrastructure sector is highlighted as a preferred investment area due to its dual support from supply and demand dynamics [8]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - For investors, ETFs focused on AI computing, such as those tracking the 5G communication theme index, present clear opportunities, with major holdings in companies benefiting from AI infrastructure investments [8][9]. - The underlying index is characterized by a high concentration in "hard technology," with significant allocations to communication and electronic sectors, indicating a robust investment landscape [9].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential military action by the U.S. against Venezuela, highlighting the significant military buildup in the region, including 15,000 troops and advanced naval assets [1] - Venezuela's government, led by Maduro, is preparing for a possible conflict, with military forces hidden in over 280 locations and plans for guerrilla warfare if attacked [1] - The article suggests that even if Trump does not engage in direct military action, he will create an impression of imminent conflict to influence capital markets [4] Group 2 - The anticipated military tensions are expected to cause significant volatility in global capital markets, with predictions of a sharp decline in stock prices, particularly in tech stocks, and a rise in gold and silver prices [6] - The article indicates that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates regardless of the new chairperson, which could lead to a bursting of the AI tech bubble as current stock prices reflect future expectations [6] - Following a market downturn, there may be a rotation of capital from tech stocks to undervalued sectors, particularly consumer goods, as the real estate market stabilizes and begins to recover [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that over 80% of newly established active equity funds have shown signs of building positions, with cautious strategies due to market volatility and year-end style shifts [1][2][4] - As of December 3, 61 new active equity funds were established in the fourth quarter, with 57 being mixed equity funds, and 51 of these funds have experienced net value fluctuations [2][3] - The most notable building activity is observed in funds established in October, with some achieving over 10% returns, while others have faced slight losses due to November's market volatility [2][3] Group 2 - Fund managers are adopting a cautious approach to building positions, with many funds maintaining low levels of investment due to increased market volatility and rapid sector rotation [4][5] - The average decline in 34 core A-share indices has exceeded 3%, with some indices dropping over 11%, prompting fund managers to take a longer-term view on investments [4] - New floating fee rate funds have emerged, with an average fundraising scale of approximately 1.23 billion, and most of these funds have shown minimal net value fluctuations [5] Group 3 - The industry consensus is that AI applications will be a key focus area, with expectations for significant breakthroughs by 2026, particularly in sectors like smart driving and robotics [6][7] - Market analysts suggest that the upcoming central political bureau and economic work meetings may influence market recovery, with a focus on both new and traditional economic sectors [7] - The global AI computing market is expected to continue its strong growth, supported by increasing capital expenditures from leading cloud service providers [7]

Core Insights - Alphabet's shares have increased by 66% in 2025, potentially due to the strong performance of its AI chatbot, Gemini 3, which has outperformed ChatGPT [2][6] - A possible multi-billion dollar contract with Meta for Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) could further enhance Google's position in the AI chip market [3][10] AI Chip Market Dynamics - The AI chip market is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 25%, reaching $440 billion by 2030, with Google's market share expected to rise from 5% to 25% during this period [5][12] - Nvidia's market share in the AI chip sector could decline from 90% to 70% by 2030, indicating increased competition from Google [5] Competitive Landscape - OpenAI's ChatGPT faces challenges as Gemini's user base has grown by 44% to 650 million, while ChatGPT has over 800 million weekly users [6] - OpenAI's CEO has declared a "code red" to enhance ChatGPT's features in response to competitive pressures from Google and Meta [8] Financial Performance - Google's operating income over the last four quarters was $151.4 billion, surpassing Nvidia's $110 billion, providing Google with a financial advantage to compete in the AI chip market [9] - OpenAI is projected to incur net losses of $9 billion and $14 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively, putting pressure on the company to secure additional funding [7] Future Projections - Google's TPUs could control 8% of the AI chip market by the end of 2025, with estimates suggesting a rise to 25% by 2030 [11][12] - The competitive dynamics are prompting pricing pressures, as evidenced by OpenAI negotiating a 30% discount on its Nvidia compute fleet [14] Investment Considerations - Wall Street views Alphabet shares as slightly overvalued, while Nvidia's stock is considered cheap, with Google's generative AI initiatives potentially making it a more attractive investment [15]