宏观 增长动能巩固，名义增速修复 ——2026 年宏观经济形势展望 投资要点： 分析师： 2026 年我国经济仍有望保持 5%的合理增速。首先，经济增长风险总体 降低。关税不确定性缓和及全球经济增长支撑出口韧性；2025 年下半年房地 产投资跌幅扩大有望促进地产层面积极政策出台，商品房销售端有望率先企 稳，地产投资跌幅随后收窄，对经济拖累缓和。其次，增长动能主要在消费、 基建投资及制造业提质升级，这几方面增速都有望高于 2025 年。消费方面 政策红利延续，商品消费支持方向扩容，服务消费、新型消费进一步形成新 的增长点。设备更新改造需求仍支撑制造业投资，科技创新及新技术投资加 快贡献增量。基建投资增速有望企稳回升，新型基建、公共服务领域投资及 安全领域投资成为核心拉动。再次，政策延续"积极有为"，更强调协同性、 灵活性。加大逆周期调节力度和强调跨周期调节两者时间维度以及解决的问 题不同，并不冲突。逆周期更侧重短期维度，有利于保障"十五五"开局之 年经济处于合理增速。 与 2025 年相比，2026 年经济增速波动幅度将显著缩小，经济运行的稳 定性将进一步提升。2025 年四季度推出的接续性政策有望在 2026 ...

流动性方面，截止12月29日，港股通红利低波ETF（159117）近20个交易日累计成交金额9631.90万元， 日均成交金额481.59万元。 港股通红利低波ETF（159117）现任基金经理为闫冬、余展昌。闫冬自2025年9月30日管理（或拟管 理）该基金，任职期内收益2.95%；余展昌自2025年9月30日管理（或拟管理）该基金，任职期内收益 2.95%。 最新定期报告显示，港股通红利低波ETF（159117）重仓股包括恒隆地产、江西铜业股份、中国神华、 远东宏信、中国海洋石油、信和置业、中国石油股份、恒安国际、恒基地产、中银香港，持仓占比如 下。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 12月29日，鹏华港股通低波红利ETF（159117）收盘跌0.68%，成交额358.53万元。 港股通红利低波ETF（159117）成立于2025年9月30日，基金全称为鹏华标普港股通低波红利交易型开 放式指数证券投资基金，基金简称为鹏华港股通低波红利ETF。该基金管理费率每年0.30%，托管费率 每年0.10%。港股通红利低波ETF（159117）业绩比较基准为标普港股通低波红利指数收益率(经汇率调 整后)。 规模方面，截止12月 ...

陈永杰预期，2025年全年差估署楼价指数可录3.5%升幅。租金指数方面，继续受惠于各项专才政策， 指数连升12个月，更创历史新高水平。楼价连升6个月，租金连升12个月，今年出现了近年罕见的租价 齐升现象。鉴于现时楼价与历史高位仍有25%的差距，陈永杰认为，买楼收租享逾3.5%的租金回报，仍 是明年趋势。但相信明年租金升势将放缓，香港楼价升幅将跑赢租金。 智通财经APP获悉，香港差饷物业估价署刚公布楼价指数，2025年11月私人住宅售价指数报297.3点， 月环比升0.92%，已连升6个月，为逾4年最长升浪，累涨约3.77%。今年首11个月累升约2.8%。租金指 数则连升12个月，月环比升0.2%，全年累升约4.26%，最新报200.7点，再创历史新高。 香港财政司司长昨日在网志上表示，香港经济表现良好，随着旅客增加，出口上升，各项经济数据理 想。陈永杰认为各项经济基础因素不变，市民收入增加有利香港楼市，而货币贬值亦促使资金流向实物 资产，同时于租金升势未停的影响下，租客转租为买增加，将进一步推升住宅物业买卖需求。以中原城 市领先指数CCL为例，全年已录得4.3%升幅。 中原地产亚太区副主席兼住宅部总裁陈永杰表 ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment Model Insights - The market sentiment score has stabilized at 1.1 as of December 26, indicating a neutral outlook, with signs of improvement in trading activity [8][12] - The price-volume consistency indicator showed a rebound in the latter part of the week, suggesting a recovery in market sentiment, although risk appetite remains insufficient [12][19] - The total trading volume for the week increased by 11.63% compared to the previous week, with an average daily trading volume of 19,651.66 billion RMB, indicating heightened market activity [16][18] Group 2: Sector Performance and Trends - The short-term scores for sectors such as computer, real estate, pharmaceutical, automotive, and machinery have shown upward trends, with non-ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, and communication leading with the highest short-term scores of 88.14 [41][42] - The industry trading volatility has decreased, indicating a slowdown in capital switching between sectors, with a notable decline in the participation of high-elasticity sectors [23][25] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reaching a new high, reflecting an increase in leveraged capital sentiment and a recovery in risk appetite [29][31] Group 3: Investment Style and Sector Crowding - The model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI showing potential for strengthening signals [50][51] - The correlation between sector crowding and weekly price changes is positive, with sectors like defense and construction materials showing significant gains due to rapid capital inflows [44][46] - High crowding sectors such as food and beverage, and retail have shown lower price increases, while low crowding sectors like beauty care and coal have lagged behind [46][47]

Industrial Sector - Raw material production continues seasonal adjustments, with steel and building materials output declining this week[1] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, while asphalt production increased[1] - Polyester and weaving industry operating rates weakened seasonally, while semi-steel tire production increased[1] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 25.2% year-on-year as of December 26, with a slight improvement of 3.0 percentage points compared to last month[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.62% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing[1] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue remains high, with a year-on-year increase of 108.5% as of December 25[1] - Retail sales of automobiles decreased by 19% year-on-year from December 1-21, compared to a 7% decline in November[1] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 34.4% year-on-year as of December 19, a decline of 11.3 percentage points from the end of November[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.1% year-on-year as of December 21, with container throughput up by 9.1%[1] - Export container freight rates rose by 2.0% this week, marking three consecutive weeks of increase[1] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 2.8%, while the Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Index increased by 5.0% this week[1] - Agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 0.4% week-on-week, showing a stronger performance compared to the same period last year[1]

今年以来，尽管经营面临多重艰巨挑战，但在国家保交房政策"组合拳"持续落实和各方大力支持下，万 科全力以赴、攻坚克难，全年预计按期保质交付11.7万套，其中1.6万套房屋实现提前30天交付，约5000 套房屋实现跨年提前交付。值得一提的是，万科2025年已完成近两年需交付量约70%，交付高峰期已 过，后续交付压力将显著下降。（深圳特区报） ...

深圳 " 十五五 " 规划建议全文公布 。 12月29日，据深圳发布微信号消息，中共深圳市委关于制定深圳市国民经济和社会发展第十 五个五年规划的建议（《建议》） 全文 公布。 "十五五" 时期 ，深圳经济如何发力？ 现代化产业体系是中国式现代化的物质技术基础，《建议》提到，加快推动新兴产业发展壮 大、未来产业成形成势、传统产业优化升级，持续建设好全球领先的重要的先进制造业中 心。其中，加快新兴产业发展壮大，实施产业创新工程，一体推进创新设施建设、技术研究 开发、产品迭代升级，实施新技术新产品新场景大规模应用示范行动，加快新一代信息技 术、新能源、高端装备、医药和医疗器械、新材料、低空经济、航空航天等战略性新兴产业 集群发展，扩大智能终端、网络与通信、智能网联汽车、集成电路、全屋智能等产业优势。 加快未来产业成形成势，探索多元技术路线、典型应用场景、可行商业模式、市场监管规 则，建立未来产业投入增长和风险分担机制，推动第六代移动通信、生物制造、具身智能、 光载信息、细胞与基因、脑机接口、氢能和核聚变能、量子科技等成为新的经济增长点。 《建议》提到，促进服务业优质高效发展，加快建设具有全球重要影响力的产业金融中心 ...

Group 1: Currency and Policy Changes - The offshore RMB exchange rate surpassed the 7 mark for the first time in 15 months on December 25, 2025, indicating a continuous appreciation since mid-October[1] - The central bank is expected to implement a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reduction in Q1 2026, alongside the introduction of more structural tools[1] Group 2: Real Estate and Sales Trends - The average weekly land transaction area in 100 cities increased by 102.8% month-on-month in December, although it remains at a five-year low with a year-on-year decline of 3.4%[1] - New home sales in 30 major cities saw a month-on-month increase of 45.8%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 25.6%[3] - Second-hand home sales in 18 key cities increased by 13.7% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 22.7%[3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 78.4%, while the operating rate of coking enterprises fell by 2.4 percentage points to 66.1%[2] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 1.6 percentage points to 29.5%, and cement dispatch rates rose by 0.3 percentage points to 31.6%[2] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Prices for copper, rebar, and coking coal have risen, with LME copper prices increasing by 2.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 33.8%[5] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.7% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2%[4] Group 5: Inventory and Logistics - Energy inventories, including coal at coastal power plants, decreased by 1.8% month-on-month, while U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories fell by 525,000 barrels to 1.687 billion barrels[6] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 20.6% month-on-month, while the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 1.7%[7]

1.茅台董事长陈华：聚焦"哪里买"，要找到"谁来买" 12月28日，2026年茅台经销商大会召开。茅台集团党委书记、董事长陈华针对新年市场策略进行布局。他 表示，要让渠道更"活"，要聚焦"哪里买"，推动构建线上线下融合、传统现代互补的渠道网络；要找到"谁 来买"，主动拥抱新经济，拓展新客群；要让服务更"优"，增强消费体验，加强渠道生态韧性。 点评：2026茅台要发力了？ 2.ST葫芦娃：因涉嫌信息披露违法违规，收到证监会立案告知书 ST葫芦娃12月28日公告，公司及公司董事长刘景萍于12月26日分别收到证监会下发的《立案告知书》。因 公司及公司董事长刘景萍涉嫌信息披露违法违规，根据《中华人民共和国证券法》《中华人民共和国行政 处罚法》等法律法规，中国证监会决定对公司和刘景萍立案。目前，公司各项生产经营活动正常有序开 展，在立案调查期间，公司将积极配合中国证监会的相关调查工作，并严格按照有关法律法规及监管要求 履行信息披露义务。 3.晚期阿尔茨海默病治疗或有新突破口 记者28日从中国科学院昆明动物研究所获悉，该所近期与云南大学生命科学学院携手，通过研发调控葡萄 糖代谢、修复脑能量危机的新型活性化合物，成功逆转中 ...

责任编辑：栎树 香港差饷物业估价署数据显示，今年11月香港私人住宅楼价指数报297.3点，月环比微升0.92%，连升6 个月，同比升1.99%；今年首11个月累升2.8%。另外，11月份租金指数为200.7点，月环比升0.2%，同比 升4.59%；今年首11个月累升4.26%。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> ...