1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term copper prices are strong. The core drivers are the ongoing "232" investigation in the US and the unresolved LME warehouse receipt issue, which provide strong support for copper prices. Before the "232" investigation is finalized, the tight supply situation in non - US regions is difficult to reverse, and the main contract is expected to trade between 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract trading in the range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract trading between 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main contract trading between 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices have rebounded due to higher interest rate cut expectations and a weak US dollar. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long - term, with the main contract trading between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment provides support, but the nickel fundamentals have not changed much. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The price upside is limited. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract trading between 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term under macro - support, with the main contract trading between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel - mill production cut rhythms [12]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - on - rallies strategy based on inventory and import data is recommended [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton and changes in macro - expectations [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.98% to 80,990 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 11.18% to 2,403 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.44% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.14% to 20,810 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.86% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 100% to 0 tons. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 26,100 tons. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased by 11.75% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.04% to 22,290 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 262.82 yuan/ton to - 911 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots in seven regions increased by 3.60% week - on - week [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.49% to 122,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 3.85% to 2,500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% week - on - week [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 23.08% to 200 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7912 million tons, an increase of 0.36%. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 0.28% week - on - week [12]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.75% to 268,500 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 17.60% to - 13,401.25 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 0.57% to 61,650 yuan/ton. The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 160 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The demand was 918,866 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. The total inventory increased by 2.27% month - on - month [17].

分[析Ta师ble_Report] 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level fluctuations. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged due to factors such as the progress of the US fiscal expansion bill, the weakening of the US dollar, and the long - term reshaping of the global order [1][3]. - Silver will have range - bound fluctuations as its logical drivers remain relatively stable, and the ratio of gold to silver has returned to the normal range [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold long positions. Although there is a risk of a high - level pullback, the long - term outlook for copper is positive [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure. In the long run, there is an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, so opportunities to short on rallies should be grasped [1][9]. - Lead's rebound is under pressure due to an expected increase in supply in July and unoptimistic downstream battery consumption [1]. - Tin's rebound is also under pressure as the supply from Myanmar's tin mines has not recovered and the consumption in the terminal field has entered the off - season [1]. - Aluminum is in a short - term rebound trend. However, as the terminal enters the off - season, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [1][12]. - Nickel is under pressure. The cost support has weakened, and the downstream stainless - steel industry has inventory accumulation pressure [1][14]. - Industrial silicon's rebound is under pressure. There are rumors of large - scale factory restarts, and the cost support has weakened [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the fundamentals remain in an oversupply situation, and the market has significant differences in downstream production schedules [1][15]. Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: SHFE gold closed at 776.1, up 1.11% from the previous value, and COMEX gold closed at 3349, up 1.01%. SHFE silver closed at 8810, up 0.55%, and COMEX silver closed at 36, down 0.30%. The Shanghai gold - to - silver ratio was 88.09, up 0.56% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The US fiscal expansion bill has made progress. The US Senate passed the "Great Beauty" bill on July 1st, including a $4.5 - trillion tax cut and a $1.2 - trillion spending cut. Other countries have made compromises in trade negotiations. The US dollar has continued to weaken significantly, with the Bloomberg dollar index falling for six consecutive months in June [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider long - term investment in gold when the price is around 760. Silver will have range - bound fluctuations, with strong support at 8560 [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The closing price of SHFE copper was 80390, up 0.46% from the previous day. The LME copper price was 9934, up 0.66%, and the COMEX copper price was 509.9, down 0.24% [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the processing TC of copper concentrates has dropped to - 43.57 dollars/ton. During the consumption off - season, the demand from the power and new - energy vehicle sectors has offset the lack of demand from traditional sectors such as construction [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions in copper, and take partial profits when the price is high. Be vigilant about the risk of a high - level pullback. In the short term, focus on the range of [78500, 81000] for SHFE copper and [9700, 9900] dollars/ton for LME copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of SHFE zinc was 22175, down 0.36% from the previous day. The LME zinc price was 2713.5, down 1.00% [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc mines is expected to be more abundant. Although there was a strike at a large zinc smelter in Peru, the overall supply of zinc mines is at a high level, and the TC has continued to rebound. Domestic inventories have slightly increased, and the downstream galvanizing enterprises' performance is lower than in previous years [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is under pressure. In the long run, short on rallies. Focus on the range of [22000, 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2650, 2750] dollars/ton for LME zinc [9][10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 2602 dollars/ton, up 0.17%, and the closing price of SHFE aluminum was 20635 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The price of alumina was under pressure and declined [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - sentiment has improved. However, as the terminal enters the off - season, the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is showing signs of accumulation. For alumina, the import of overseas bauxite remains at a high level, and the domestic production capacity has rebounded [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rallies for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventories. The main operating range is [20000 - 20800]. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of LME nickel was 15190 dollars/ton, up 0.43%, and the closing price of SHFE nickel was 120720 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The price of stainless steel also declined [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of nickel mines from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel mines has decreased, weakening the cost support. The domestic refined nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless - steel industry is facing inventory accumulation pressure during the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2509 of lithium carbonate closed at 62780 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17598 tons, up 1.79%, and the weekly inventory was 136837 tons, up 1.44% [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: There are significant differences in the market's expectations for downstream production schedules. In the long - term, the supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand, and the total inventory continues to reach new highs [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies within the range of [61800 - 63300] [16].

"所以我要做的是，我会给他们写一封信说'我们非常感谢你们，我们知道你们不能做我们需要的那些事 情，因此你要支付30%、35%'，或我们决定的任何数字，"特朗普补充说，"因为我们之间也有非常大的 贸易逆差。" 特朗普还称，他没有考虑延长各国与美国谈判贸易协议的7月9日截止日期。在此前一天，他威胁称，如 果没有在这一日期前达成协议，一些国家将被完全禁止与美国进行贸易，"但在大多数情况下，我们将 确定一个数字"。 当地时间7月1日，特朗普在"空军一号"上接受媒体采访。 视频截图 英国《金融时报》2日指出，特朗普的言辞表明，他仍然愿意在与贸易伙伴的谈判中采取强硬立场，尽 管早些时候面对严重的市场动荡，他退缩了。 观察者网消息，在距离美国设定的关税谈判最后期限不足一周之际，美国总统特朗普再次升级了对日本 的贸易施压，公开质疑能否在7月9日前与日本达成协议，并威胁若谈判破裂，将把对日本的关税提高至 30%或35%。 当地时间7月1日，特朗普在"空军一号"上对媒体表示，"我不确定我们是否会达成协议。我对此表示怀 疑，日本人非常强硬"。 特朗普再次抱怨日本没有从美国进口足够的汽车，而对于进口美国大米这样"一个简单的要求"，日 ...

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日星期二 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2508 合约收于 80640 元/吨，涨幅 1.09%，沪铜指数减仓 15446 手至 59.61 万手。 2.现货：下半年首个交易日持货商积极挺价，铜价高位令市场采购情绪较低。上海报升水 200 元/吨，较上一交易日上涨 70 元/吨。广东报升水 90 元/吨，上涨 25 元/吨。天津消费 不佳限制涨幅，报贴水 120 元/吨，上涨 30 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 据乘联分行秘书长崔东树公众号数据显示，2025 年 1-5 月份世界汽车销量达到 3799 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and CL spread drivers. Before the "232" investigation ends, the shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a slight surplus, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For aluminum, the current macro - positive and low - inventory situation support the price to run strongly, but the consumption off - season pressure limits the upside space, and it is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly, and the main reference range is 19200 - 20000 [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is in a loose trend. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend. The inventory is in a destocking state, and the absolute level is low, providing price support. In the short term, zinc prices may rebound, but the fundamentals have not improved essentially, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - long term [8]. Nickel - Macro sentiment improves, but the cost support of refined nickel is loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. It is expected to adjust within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 124000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Although the market sentiment has improved, the fundamentals remain weak. The bargaining range of nickel - iron continues to move down, and the cost support weakens. The production of stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 12200 - 13000 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The inventory is at a high level, and the overall supply is sufficient. The demand is difficult to boost. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 58000 - 64000 [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is 240.67 dollars/ton, down 79.16 dollars from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The 2507 - 2508 spread is 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 spread is 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 60.60 million tons, down 0.66% month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.10 million tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. The refined zinc import volume was 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. The refined nickel import volume was 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 spread is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless steel import volume was 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 61300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 57820 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate production was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 93960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may still rise due to tight raw material supply and low inventory, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory but constrained by consumption feedback, and are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. - Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under weak domestic consumption [4]. - Zinc prices are boosted by the strike at a Peruvian smelter and the change in the LME market structure, but the large - scale release of zinc ingots is expected [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range due to short - term supply shortages and weak terminal demand [6]. - Nickel prices may decline due to the oversupply of refined nickel and the expected loosening of nickel ore supply [7]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure due to high production and low demand [9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to high production and weak demand [13]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium over the spot [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper fell 0.01% to $9,878/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,780 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 650 to 90,625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 26,000 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: China's refined copper production in June decreased by 0.3% month - on - month and increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 1.4% in July [1]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices may still rise but the upward momentum will weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose 0.1% to $2,597/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic major consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.5 to 468,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 346,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, but consumption feedback increases as prices rise [3]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index rose 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 16.5 to $2,048/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons, and LME lead inventory was 273,400 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Primary supply remains high, secondary supply is tight, and downstream procurement improves [4]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22,464 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 10 to $2,780/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 119,200 tons [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore supply is high, but some smelters convert production, and a Peruvian smelter has a strike [5]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are boosted by the strike and market structure change [5]. Tin - **Price**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in China and 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton in LME [6]. - **Inventory**: National major market tin ingot social inventory increased by 361 to 9,266 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, but terminal demand is weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices are expected to be in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton for LME nickel [7]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Refined nickel is in oversupply, and nickel ore supply is expected to loosen [7]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices may decline [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: MMLC late - market reported 61,177 yuan, and LC2509 closed at 62,260 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production hits a record high, and demand is in the off - season [9]. - **Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure [9]. Alumina - **Price**: Alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Capacity is in excess, and ore price is the core contradiction [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and short at high prices [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: Stainless steel main contract closed at 12,610 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 1.1544 million tons, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.03% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: July production is still high, and terminal demand has not improved [13]. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: AD2511 contract closed at 19,780 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [16]. - **Inventory**: Three - place regenerated aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.02 to 20,000 tons [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and prices follow aluminum prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The geopolitical situation overseas has eased, leading to a short-term fluctuation in gold prices. As of June 27, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 2.9% to $3,286.1 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.5% to 954.82 tons [2][3] - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in May, the highest since February 2025, with expectations of a 2.6% increase. The previous value was revised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2][3] - Following the PCE data release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut remained largely unchanged. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to a temporary decline in risk aversion, contributing to a slight drop in gold prices this week. However, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening dollar [2][3] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Copper - As of June 27, the LME copper futures contract rose by 2.3% to $9,879 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 130,100 tons as of June 19, a decrease of 15,800 tons [3][4] - The LME copper inventory stood at 91,300 tons as of June 20, continuing to approach historical lows. The import copper concentrate index reported a negative $44.81 per ton on June 27. The annual negotiations between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters resulted in a mid-year TC long-term price dropping to $0 per ton, indicating a tight balance for copper concentrate in 2025-2026 [3][4] - The easing of geopolitical risks and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have improved macroeconomic sentiment, benefiting copper prices. The combination of rigid supply, low inventory, and a weakening dollar is expected to accelerate the price elasticity of copper [3][4] Group 3: Industrial Metals - Aluminum - As of June 27, the LME aluminum futures contract increased by 1.3% to $2,595 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 463,000 tons as of June 20, an increase of 14,000 tons [4] - The LME aluminum inventory was at 345,200 tons as of June 26, with global electrolytic aluminum inventory levels remaining low. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been operating at high levels, with no immediate expectations for new projects to come online [4] - The rising aluminum water ratio may significantly impact the electrolytic aluminum spot market, as many northern aluminum plants have increased their aluminum water ratio, leading to a decrease in ingot production and a potential decline in aluminum ingot inventory. The mid-term outlook for aluminum prices is positive due to a tight supply-demand balance and low global inventory levels [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes are highlighted, with a long-term positive outlook. Recommended stock: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [5] - For copper, the gradual recovery of domestic demand and the acceleration of industrialization in emerging markets are expected to open up long-term demand for refined copper. The tight supply of copper concentrate is also noted. Recommended stock: Zijin Mining [5] - In the aluminum sector, the weak supply and strong demand dynamics are anticipated to accelerate, leading to a potential rise in aluminum prices. Recommended stock: Tianshan Aluminum [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is willing to accept a trade agreement with the United States that includes a 10% universal tariff on many EU exports, while seeking lower tariffs for key industries such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft [1] Group 1 - The EU is pushing for the U.S. to commit to lower tariffs on critical sectors [1] - The EU aims to negotiate quotas and exemptions to reduce the U.S. tariffs of 25% on automobiles and auto parts, as well as 50% on steel and aluminum [1] - EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic will lead a delegation to Washington this week to advance negotiations [1] Group 2 - The European Commission seeks to address existing sector tariffs imposed by the U.S. and any future tariffs planned [1]