Group 1 - The trend of "Finance + Technology" is expected to continue, with a focus on strong industrial sectors such as artificial intelligence and solid-state batteries, as well as non-ferrous metals benefiting from a weaker dollar [1] - The Chinese stock market is viewed positively, with attention on the short-term cooling of market sentiment and potential high-low trading opportunities [2] - Long-term support for the technology sector is anticipated due to favorable policies and technological innovations, particularly in advanced manufacturing like renewable energy and electric vehicles [3] Group 2 - The AI industry is forming a significant market trend, with domestic computing power developing a closed loop from industrial breakthroughs to initial performance realization [4] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, technology and certain core assets are expected to outperform, with historical data showing strong performance in sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals [5] - The market is shifting towards large-cap technology growth, with recommendations for major technology ETFs as smaller and dividend stocks show signs of weakness [6]

证券研究报告 2025 年 9 月 19 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 指数放量调整 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3831.66 | -1.15% | -44.68 | | | 深证成指 | 13075.66 | -1.06% | -139.80 | | | 沪深 300 | 4498.11 | -1.16% | -52.91 | | | 创业板 | 3095.85 | -1.64% | -51.49 | | | 科创 50 | 1380.35 | 0.72% | 9.92 | | | 北证 50 | 1591.17 | -1.01% | -16.27 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 申万行业表现前五 申万行业表现后五 概念板块表现前五 ◼ 概念板块表现后五 电子 0.93% 有色金属 -3.56% F5G 概念 1.45% 金属铅 -3.94% 通信 0.19% 综合 -2.85% 共封装光学 （CPO） 1.35% 金属锌 -3.88% 社会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% is expected to positively impact the valuation of Chinese assets, particularly benefiting Chinese concept stocks and the technology sector in Hong Kong in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Chinese Assets - The recent interest rate cut is anticipated to lead to a rally in Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong tech stocks, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 2.85% on September 17 [2]. - Companies like Xunlei and Baidu saw significant stock price increases, with gains exceeding 11%, while Alibaba reached a four-year high with a 2.44% increase [2]. - The depreciation of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, from 7.3 to approximately 7.1 since 2025, is expected to enhance foreign investment in Chinese assets [2][4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Historical trends indicate that after Fed rate cuts, growth sectors in A-shares and H-shares tend to outperform, aligning with the current performance of Chinese concept stocks and Hong Kong tech stocks [3]. - Analysts predict that the current rate cut is just the beginning of a new easing cycle, with expectations of further cuts in October and December, potentially lowering rates to between 3.0% and 3.25% by mid-2024 [5][6]. - The overall liquidity in the global market is expected to remain ample, benefiting risk assets, including A-shares and H-shares [6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The resilience of Chinese assets during the Fed's rate-cutting period is attributed to their stable asset quality and the appeal of Chinese assets as safe investments amid global capital seeking higher returns [4]. - The ongoing economic transformation in China and improvements in economic visibility are expected to support the performance of Chinese equities in the long term [6]. - The potential for artificial intelligence to become a mid-term investment theme is highlighted, with foreign investors showing a positive attitude towards Chinese assets [6][7].

Macro Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the rate to a range of 4.0%-4.25% [4] - The Fed raised its economic and inflation forecasts, indicating a potential 75 basis point cut in 2025, reflecting a significant change from previous predictions [5] - The Fed's internal divisions are evident, with Chairman Powell navigating challenges related to a cooling labor market and persistent inflation [6] Fiscal Policy Overview - In August, the national general public budget revenue was 1,235.9 billion yuan, while expenditure was 1,858.7 billion yuan, indicating a fiscal deficit [10] - Narrow fiscal revenue growth was stable, with a 2% year-on-year increase in August, while corporate income tax saw a notable 33% increase, suggesting improved corporate profits [11] - Public fiscal expenditure growth slowed to 0.8% year-on-year in August, below the annual target of 4% [12] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue decreased by 15 percentage points to 5.7% year-on-year in August, with land sale revenue declining by 5.8% [13] - Government fund expenditure remained strong, growing by 20% year-on-year in August, despite a decrease from the previous month's 42% growth [13] Company-Specific Insights: Kanglong Chemical - Kanglong Chemical successfully passed FDA inspections, aligning its quality system with international standards, which supports its transition from R&D to commercial production [24] - The company reported a revenue of 6.441 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 14.9% year-on-year increase, with new orders growing over 10% [25] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected net profits of 1.771 billion, 2.274 billion, and 2.782 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [25] Laboratory and CMC Business Performance - The laboratory services segment achieved revenue of 3.892 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 15.5% year-on-year growth, with new orders also increasing over 10% [26] - The CMC business segment reported a revenue of 1.390 billion yuan, up 18.2% year-on-year, with new orders growing approximately 20% [26]

Group 1 - The average stock price of A-shares is 13.49 yuan, with 24 stocks priced below 2 yuan, the lowest being *ST Gao Hong at 0.51 yuan [1] - Among the low-priced stocks, 12 are ST stocks, accounting for 50% of the total [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3831.66 points as of September 18 [1] Group 2 - Among the low-priced stocks, 11 increased in price today, with the highest gainers being Yongtai Energy (up 10.32%), Liao Port Co. (up 2.75%), and *ST Su Wu (up 2.15%) [1] - Conversely, 11 stocks decreased in price, with the largest declines seen in Rongsheng Development (down 8.54%), *ST Gao Hong (down 5.56%), and Zhitian Tui (down 5.36%) [1] - The stock price performance of low-priced stocks shows a mixed trend, indicating volatility in this segment [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of major indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.15% closing at 3831.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.06% at 13075.66 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.64% at 3095.85 points [1] - Overall, there were 1026 stocks that rose and 4348 stocks that fell, with a total trading volume of 313.52 billion yuan, an increase of 75.84 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only the electronics, communication, and social services sectors saw gains, with increases of 0.93%, 0.19%, and 0.03% respectively [1] - The non-ferrous metals, comprehensive, non-bank financial, media, and beauty care sectors experienced the largest declines, with drops of 3.56%, 2.85%, 2.81%, 2.25%, and 2.23% respectively [1] Sector Highlights - The leading concept sectors today included continuous boards, semiconductor equipment, and consumer electronics OEM, among others [2] - The sectors that saw the most significant gains were linked to semiconductor technology and related industries, indicating a potential area for investment focus [2]

对此，长城证券总部投顾团队指出，从8月25日开始计算，到9月17日，上证指数在这里（3900点附近） 维持了18个交易日的震荡行情。4月以来只有5月14日到6月24日的平台和当前的平台相当。当时震荡阶 段维持了29个交易日。从平台的性质看，两个平台的性质类似，都是大幅上涨后，市场等待主线的出 现。早先的平台由于银行板块的大幅拉升选择方向向上，而目前的平台尚无类似主线打破僵局。 另外，今日还有一个对A股市场未来可能产生深远影响的事件——美联储降息。 北京时间2025年9月18日，美联储宣布降息25BP。市场观点普遍认为，本次美联储降息符合预期，可能 是为预防经济衰退而进行的预防型降息。 市场共识，沪指3900点大关，或迟或早一定会突破。但至少，没有选择今天——2025年9月18日。 早盘，沪指开盘几乎平开，随后震荡整理。9:50分左右开始拉升，10:26分上攻至3899.96点。就在距离 3900点只有0.04点便被攻破、只需要一脚轻轻的油门时，市场却选择了"踩刹车"，至11：13分，已经往 下回撤20个点。 随后在多方的炮火下，沪指重拾升势，午盘前又回到了3895点附近。又是距离3900点只有一小步。 然而下 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower on September 18, with significant fluctuations in the semiconductor sector leading to early gains [1] - By the afternoon, all three indices continued to decline, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 2% at one point [1] Sector Performance - The financial sector experienced a broad decline, while the non-ferrous metals industry fell sharply following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [1] - Real estate, oil, and media sectors showed weakness, whereas the robotics and semiconductor supply chain saw a pullback after initial gains [1] - The SPD and tourism sectors performed well in the afternoon, showing resilience against the overall market trend [1] Index Closing Figures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.15% at 3831.66 points [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increased by 0.72% to 1380.35 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.06% to 13075.66 points [1] - The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.64% to 3095.85 points [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 31,352 billion yuan, an increase of 7,584 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai market accounted for 13,660 billion yuan, up 3,593 billion yuan from the previous day, while the Shenzhen market saw a volume of 17,692 billion yuan [1] Stock Movement - A total of 1,026 stocks rose, while 4,348 stocks fell, with 52 stocks remaining flat [1] - There were 80 stocks with gains exceeding 9%, and 6 stocks with losses exceeding 9% [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shenzhen Component Index dropping over 2% and the ChiNext Index falling by 3% [2] - A total of 4,757 stocks in the market saw a decrease, indicating a broad market downturn [2] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,805.03, down by 71.31 points or 1.84% [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index ended at 12,927.10, down by 288.36 points or 2.18% [3] - The ChiNext Index recorded a decline of 3.00%, closing at 3,053.06 [3] Trading Volume and Market Capitalization - The trading volume reached 294 million hands, with a turnover rate of 5.51% [4] - The total trading value was 774.655 billion, with a volume ratio of 1.28 [4] - The overall market capitalization stood at 17.11 trillion [4] Sector Performance - Various sectors experienced declines, with non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, media, and beauty care sectors collectively falling [6] - Notable declines were observed in stocks related to stock trading software, PEEK materials, industrial metals, and gold jewelry [6] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market also saw a sharp decline, with all three major indices dropping over 2% [7] - The Hang Seng Technology Index had previously increased by 2% before the downturn [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to prevent economic recession and aligns with historical patterns of preemptive rate cuts [1][7][6] - The U.S. job market shows signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August and non-farm payrolls being significantly revised downwards, indicating a potential economic slowdown [7][8][11] - A-share market is expected to maintain a strong slow bull trend in the short term, supported by the Fed's rate cut and domestic growth policies [13][19][20] Group 2 - The technology sector and certain core assets are likely to outperform following the Fed's rate cut, driven by liquidity easing and upward industry trends [19][20][21] - Historical data shows that after 18 rate cuts since 2005, sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and communications have frequently ranked among the top performers [19][22][27] - The easing of liquidity is expected to attract foreign capital into A-shares, with significant inflows observed during previous rate cut cycles [19][20][21]