证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事项点评 | [Table_StockAndRank] 旅游综合 | | --- | | 投资评级 看好 | | 上次评级 看好 | | [Table_Author] 范欣悦 商社行业首席分析师 | 执业编号：S1500521080001 邮 箱：fanxinyue@cindasc.com 陆亚宁 商社行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030003 邮 箱：luyaning@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 26 年元旦假期点评：免税、景区表现靓丽 [Table_Industry] 旅游综合 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 04 日 | 2026 年元旦假期综述 4 | | --- | | 国内旅游 4 | | 景区 5 | | 免税 6 | | 出入境游 7 | | 零售 8 | | 投资建议 8 | | 风险提示 9 | | 图 1：我国主要假期日均国内旅游人次及恢复度 4 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the social services industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [3]. Core Insights - The tourism market is showing a strong start in 2026, with expectations for continued growth as the Spring Festival approaches. The report highlights several recommended stocks in the OTA, hotel, and scenic area sectors [4]. - There is a significant increase in duty-free sales in Hainan, driven by the appreciation of the RMB, with a recommendation for China Duty Free Group [4]. - The report notes a substantial rise in domestic travel during the New Year holiday, with 142 million trips taken, reflecting a 5.19% increase compared to 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Tourism Market - The report indicates that 142 million domestic trips were made during the New Year holiday, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, a 6.35% increase from 2024. The average spending per trip was 597.1 yuan, up by 1.1% [4]. - Recommended stocks in the OTA sector include Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel, while hotel recommendations include Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and ShouLai Hotels [4]. Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free shopping in Hainan saw a remarkable increase, with sales of 307,000 items from January 1 to 2, 2026, marking a 48.3% year-on-year growth. The number of shoppers reached 65,000, up 60.9%, and total spending was 505 million yuan, a 121.5% increase [4]. Transportation - The report highlights that from January 1 to 3, 2026, the total inter-regional passenger flow is expected to reach 590 million, averaging 198 million per day, a 19.5% increase year-on-year. Railway passenger volume is projected at 48.223 million, with a 53.1% increase [4].

A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说。 沪指本周累计涨0.13%，深证成指跌0.58%，创业板指跌1.25%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说： ①中信证券：开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高 ③光大证券：消费与成长有望成为春季行情的两条主线 中信证券表示，考虑到去年末的资金热度并不算高，人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上的概率更 高。前期共识性品种"调整后再上车"大概率是机构资金主要的考虑方向，例如有色、海外算力、半导体 自主可控等，有些偏游资风格的品种也属于这一类别，比如商业航天、机器人等。免税、航空等出行服 务相关行业应是增量布局重点，优质的地产开发商也是考虑对象。中期维度下，更青睐一些热度和持仓 集中度相对较低，但关注度开始提升、催化开始增多且长期ROE有提升空间的板块，如化工、工程机 械、电力设备及新能源等，对高景气、高热度但是股价滞涨的板块则相对谨慎。同时，一些新的产业题 材（如商业航天）可能还会反复演绎，值得持续关注。 ②信达证券：春季行情可能缓步启动 信达证券表示，春节前流动性环境大概率较好，市场可能继续偏强，但1月可能会有一些波动。这一次 春节前市场位置不低，此前经验来看，交易量下降到低位后恢复初期通常是 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，2026年最大的预期差来自于外需与内需的平衡，对 外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋，今年是个重要的开端。站在开年，考虑到去年末的资金热度并不算 高，人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高。中期维度下，建议抱着"赚业绩的钱而不期待 估值的钱"的思维布局。更青睐一些热度和持仓集中度相对较低，但关注度开始提升、催化开始增多且 长期ROE有提升空间的板块，如化工、工程机械、电力设备及新能源等，对高景气、高热度但是股价滞 涨的板块则相对谨慎。同时，一些新的产业题材(如商业航天)可能还会反复演绎，对此也值得持续关 注。 从机构的赚钱效应来看，2025年在过去10年里能排到第三，过去20年里排到第六 中信证券跟踪的样本主动管理型公募基金2025年的收益率中位数为28.2%，在过去10年(2016年以来)表 现第三，仅次于2020年的51.9%和2019年的37.7%，在过去20年以来排名第六。从产品收益率的分化度 来看，2025年收益率前10%分位数为60.8%，后10%分位数为5.4%，两者的差异为55.4个百分点，在过 去10年中位于第二位，仅次于2020年的71.9个 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The travel industry is expected to continue outperforming expectations, with a positive outlook on the travel chain including OTA (Ctrip, Tongcheng), hotels (Atour, Huazhu, Jinjiang, Shoulv), duty-free (China Duty Free), and scenic spots (Emei Mountain, Three Gorges Tourism, Changbai Mountain) [4]. - The competitive landscape has significantly improved, particularly for companies like Huatu Mountain Ding, Caibai Co., and Laopu Gold [4]. - Notable dividend stocks include Sumida, Action Education, and Chongqing Department Store [4]. - The AI+ sector shows promise with companies like Konnate Optical, Fenbi, Tianli International Holdings, Kevin Education, and Doushen Education [4]. - Oversold stocks identified include China Oriental Education, Guoquan, Gaoxin Retail, and Junting Hotel [4]. Industry Updates - In the social service industry, Sanya's duty-free sales reached 163 million yuan on January 1, 2026, marking an 83.2% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong start for duty-free sales in 2026 [4]. - Ctrip's New Year travel report indicates that domestic scenic spot ticket bookings have increased over fourfold year-on-year, with significant growth in inbound travel bookings, sparking the first consumption boom of 2026 [4]. - Tongcheng Travel's report highlights a surge in travel demand during the New Year holiday, driven by a three-day holiday and the "request 3 days off for 8 days" trend, leading to increased bookings for flights, hotels, and homestays [4]. - Retail sector updates include: - Pang Donglai Group's sales in 2025 reached 23.531 billion yuan, a 39% increase from 16.9 billion yuan in 2024 [4]. - Hema's overall revenue growth exceeded 40% in 2025, with its core formats serving over 100 million consumers [4]. - Sam's Club in China surpassed 140 billion yuan in sales in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 40% [4]. Company Announcements - Kid King announced a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 275 million to 330 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.72% to 82.06% [4]. - Qingmu Technology's chairman reduced his stake by 464,100 shares, accounting for 0.50% of the company's total share capital, with a reduction price of 59.68 yuan [4].

格隆汇1月4日｜据海口海关统计，元旦假期期间(2026年1月1日至3日)，海口海关共监管离岛免税商品 销售44.2万件，同比增长52.4%；购物人数8.35万人次，同比增长60.6%；购物金额7.12亿元，同比增长 128.9%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The domestic tourism market has shown a strong start for the New Year holiday, with significant increases in travel bookings and consumer spending [8] - The report highlights the impressive performance of duty-free sales and the rising popularity of hotel bookings during the holiday period [8] - The report suggests that the industry is stabilizing and recovering, with a focus on companies that demonstrate both certainty and reasonable growth potential [8] Summary by Sections Domestic Travel - Ice and snow tourism remains a top choice, with bookings in Baishan City increasing by 57% year-on-year, and train ticket bookings to Changbai Mountain up by 110% [2] - Mountain scenic spots continue to attract visitors, with ticket bookings for mountain attractions increasing by over 150%, including a 544% increase in orders for Huangshan [2] - New Year concerts have become a significant driver of tourism, with orders in Zhuji increasing over 25 times due to a concert by Wang Leehom [2] Inbound and Outbound Travel - Inbound tourism is experiencing strong growth, with daily inbound and outbound travelers expected to exceed 2.1 million, a 22.4% increase from the previous year [8] - Duty-free shopping in Hainan has seen a surge, with sales reaching 5.05 billion yuan, a 121.5% increase year-on-year [8] - Outbound travel has also surpassed previous years, with a 102.8% increase in travelers to Hong Kong on the first day of the holiday [8] Industry Performance - Duty-free sales have performed exceptionally well, with significant increases in both sales volume and average spending per customer [8] - Hotel bookings have seen a nearly 50% increase in popularity during the holiday period, indicating a recovery in the hospitality sector [8] - Restaurant sales have also surged, with a 4.6% increase in daily sales in Beijing and a 36.5% increase in Nanjing [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Huazhu Group, Tongcheng Travel, Jinjiang Hotels, ShouLai Hotels, China Duty Free Group, Guoquan, Green Tea Group, and Changbai Mountain for potential investment opportunities [8]

据海口海关统计，元旦假期前两日：海口海关共监管海南离岛免税销售30.7万件，同比增长48.3%；购 物人数达6.5万人次，同比增长60.9%；购物金额达5.05亿元，同比增长121.5%。 来源：央视新闻 ...

格隆汇1月3日｜据央视，自海南自贸港启动全岛封关以来，离岛免税购物热度持续走高。海口海关2日 披露，元旦假期首日，海南离岛免税销售14.8万件，同比增长30%；购物人数3.2万人次，同比增长 45.8%；购物金额2.51亿元，同比增长93.8%。 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】2025年12月18日海南自由贸易港全岛封关运作的启动，瞬间激活了国际旅游消费中心的巨大潜力。紧随其后的元旦小长假，成为了 检验政策成效的首个窗口期。据媒体报道，三亚免税城内蜿蜒超过200米的排队人龙、深夜仍灯火通明的购物大厅，以及重现市场的"六位数"酒店房价。 住宿市场，尤其是高端酒店，呈现量价齐升的态势。三亚亚龙湾瑞吉酒店的"7居室海景泳池别墅"在元旦当晚房价高达11.2万元，亚特兰蒂斯酒店的皇家套 房同样超过10万元。业内认识认为，除了封关与节日效应，近期海南密集举办的大型文旅赛事，如跨年电音节、演唱会等，也为拉动客流提供了强劲助力。 这轮消费热潮并未随着假期结束而消退。有在线旅游平台人士透露，从1月份的机票预订趋势看，海口、三亚的热度将持续高位运行。 海南日报报道，据海南省旅游和文化广电体育厅相关负责人介绍，2026年元旦、春节假期期间，海南将举办旅文体活动共计177项，其中旅游促销类活动87 项、文化演艺类活动69项、体育赛事类活动21项，形成"跨年迎新、新春祈福、元宵喜乐"三大热潮。（陈十一） 为迎接跨年客流，中国中免旗下三亚国际免税城罕见地将2025年最后一天的营业时间延长 ...