Overall Market Outlook - The tourism market is experiencing a significant boom during the extended Spring Festival holiday, which lasts for 9 days, benefiting from favorable weather conditions and travel patterns [1][8] - The demand for travel is expected to exceed expectations, driven by service consumption policies and the trend of multi-destination travel [1][8] Travel Trends - The extended holiday has reshaped travel structures, leading to a rise in multi-segment trips, with users averaging 5.9 days of travel, an increase of 1.1 days year-on-year [2] - There is a notable increase in travelers visiting multiple destinations, with a 19 percentage point rise in the proportion of tourists visiting two destinations [2] - The flow of travelers is shifting, with a significant increase in "reverse urbanization" as older generations travel to cities [2] Hotel Performance - Hotel occupancy rates (Occ) averaged 50.0% during the first seven days of the holiday, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, with an average daily rate (ADR) of 300.4 yuan, an increase of 11.0% [3] - The average revenue per available room (RevPAR) reached 150.4 yuan, reflecting an 18.6% year-on-year growth, significantly surpassing pre-holiday expectations [3] Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free sales in Hainan have seen substantial growth, with sales reaching 13.8 billion yuan and 17.7 million visitors during the first five days of the holiday, marking increases of 19% and 24.6% respectively [5] - Sanya's duty-free sales exceeded 2 billion yuan on the first day of the Lunar New Year, maintaining above 2 billion yuan for several consecutive days, with year-on-year growth rates ranging from 18.2% to 36.7% [5] Scenic Spots - Tourist traffic at scenic spots has been robust, leading to several locations issuing crowd control notices [6] - Notable increases in visitor numbers have been reported at various attractions, with some locations experiencing double-digit growth year-on-year [6] Gaming Industry - Macau's visitor numbers during the holiday period showed a 7.9% increase year-on-year, with mainland visitors up 9.7%, indicating a strong recovery [7] - The gaming revenue growth rate for February is projected to be around 5%, supported by the holiday's long tail effect [7] Investment Strategy - The service industry is expected to benefit from supportive policies, with a focus on leisure travel and consumption [8] - Recommended investment themes include high-quality leisure travel stocks, stable and growth-oriented companies in the cyclical leisure sector, and companies with high demand elasticity in the recovering market [8]

行业动态报告 · 社会服务行业 假期安排优化推动景气回升，免税高增延续 —— 2026 年春节假期数据点评 2026 年 02 月 22 日 核心观点 社会服务行业 | | | 分析师 顾熹闽 ：18916370173 ：guximin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070001 研究助理：邱爽 ：qiushuang_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026 年 02 月 13 日 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025/2/24 2025/3/24 2025/4/24 2025/5/24 2025/6/24 2025/7/24 2025/8/24 2025/9/24 2025/10/24 2025/11/24 2025/12/24 2026/1/24 SW社会服务 沪深300 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1.【银河社服】CPI 专题报告：服务消费 CPI 能否 重回增长？ 2.【银河社服】2 月投资月报：超长假期赋能，平台 与免税赛道迎红利 3.【银河社服】1 月投资月报：旺季更旺，1 月布局 高 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月16日 2026年02月17日 社会服务行业双周报（第 124 期） 优于大市 酒店 REITs 落地获进展，首都机场 T2、T3 免税店焕新开业 板块复盘：消费者服务板块报告期内上涨 0.68%，跑赢大盘 1.65pct。报告 期内（2026 年 2 月 2 日-2026 年 2 月 14 日），国信社服板块涨幅居前的股 票为百胜中国（12.34%）、新濠国际发展（11.35%）、三特索道（10.23%）、 华住集团-S（8.99%）、中国东方教育（8.96%）、美高梅中国、金沙中国有 限公司、华天酒店、银河娱乐、东方甄选。 行业与公司动态：锦江酒店与华住集团商业不动产REITs相继获交易所受理， 商业不动产 REITs 有望盘活酒店资产；亚朵 4.0 发布全新品牌"亚朵见野"。 免税业态方面，北京首都国际机场完成重要商业升级，由中免与王府井运营 的全新免税店同步开业。出行与旅游市场在史上最长春节假期前夕热度高 涨，民俗文化目的地与免签国家成为搜索热点，本轮假期期间，港股于 2 月 16 日（星期一）除夕上午开市半天，下午休市。2 月 17 日（星期二）至 2 月 19 日 ...

中信证券研报指出，"史上最长春节"叠加天气条件适宜，春节假期旅游市场火热，超长假期催生出"先 返乡、后出游"或多地游的多段式旅行。其中酒店RevPAR增长超预期，离岛免税景气度高，多地景区发 布限流公告。展望全年，服务业消费是政策积极助推方向，旅游出行作为服务消费的重要场景，我们看 好其需求端超预期增长，重视行业配置机会。 ...

Group 1 - The core investment theme post-Spring Festival revolves around "price increases" and "revaluation of physical assets," particularly in resource, chemical, and midstream manufacturing sectors, leveraging China's pricing power amid global uncertainties [1][2] - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI, remains a key focus, with sub-sectors like computing power, applications, and robotics expected to remain active due to industrial catalysts [1][2] - The recovery of export chains, non-bank financials, and certain consumer and real estate chains are seen as important supplements to market trends under the backdrop of internal and external demand recovery [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities emphasizes that price increases are a core configuration clue for Q1, with a focus on sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy, while also increasing exposure to undervalued insurance and brokerage stocks [2] - Historical data indicates that February and the period around the Spring Festival are strong for market movements, with small-cap stocks showing a 100% probability of rising from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions [3] - Guojin Securities highlights the importance of balancing global physical assets against Chinese assets, recommending commodities like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages like equipment exports and domestic manufacturing [4] Group 3 - Industrial sectors experiencing structural price increases due to supply-demand gaps are primarily in midstream materials and manufacturing, with a focus on chemicals, steel, and high-end manufacturing [5] - The potential for recovery in the export chain is noted, particularly in industries with significant exposure to the U.S. market that will benefit from reduced tariffs [5] - The policy uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade is expected to favor gold as a risk hedge, with market participants anticipating potential shifts in U.S. trade policy [6] Group 4 - Attention is drawn to the post-holiday inventory replenishment in commodities, with a continued positive outlook on technology applications, particularly in semiconductors and AI [7] - Quantum technology is highlighted as a sector receiving dual catalysts from policy and technological advancements, with significant developments in quantum key distribution networks [8] - The AI industry revolution is identified as a key investment theme, focusing on computing power, storage, and applications, with a strong emphasis on the performance of high-growth sectors [9] Group 5 - Localized opportunities are expected in AI applications linked to overseas trends and robotics associated with the Spring Festival, with a cautious approach to market movements anticipated [10] - The current bull market logic remains intact, with a recommendation for investors to maintain confidence despite short-term volatility, focusing on sectors with high securities ratios [11]

Group 1 - The investment activities are shifting from being solely AI-driven to a broader spectrum of real sectors, indicating a recovery in global manufacturing cycles supported by a smoother path for U.S. interest rate cuts [1][4] - The revaluation of Chinese assets is expected as capital flows back, promoting internal consumption and inflation cycles [1][4] - The report suggests specific asset allocation strategies, including physical assets like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages such as Chinese equipment exports and domestic manufacturing [1][4] Group 2 - The U.S. GDP growth for Q4 2025 was below expectations, primarily due to government spending disruptions, but investment in AI and non-AI sectors is showing signs of recovery [2] - The manufacturing PMI data indicates a global manufacturing recovery, with Europe exceeding expectations and the U.S. maintaining expansion, suggesting a positive outlook for the manufacturing sector [2] - The recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs may ease domestic inflation pressures and support global export recovery, shifting the burden of inflation control from the Federal Reserve to other sectors [2] Group 3 - Commodity prices, particularly for industrial and precious metals, are experiencing high volatility, but there is a shift towards real industrial pricing rather than financial speculation [3] - The geopolitical risks and supply disruptions are expected to maintain a premium on industrial metals, while demand from tech giants for AI investments remains strong [3] - The focus on inflation control is shifting from the Federal Reserve to government actions, which may benefit commodities like gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty [3] Group 4 - The core of market style rebalancing is not about the existence of an AI bubble but rather the macroeconomic impacts of AI combined with monetary policy and major country policy choices [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of physical asset revaluation based on low inventory and stable demand, highlighting sectors such as oil, rare earths, and various manufacturing industries [4] - The report identifies opportunities in sectors benefiting from capital market expansion and a bottoming out of long-term asset returns, particularly in non-bank financials [4]

Global Assets: Rebalancing Continues - The current market rebalancing is based on internal and external recovery, with AI trading entering its second phase, leading to a focus on the actual impact of AI on various industries [3][13] - From February 16 to February 20, 2026, global risk assets showed an overall upward trend, but internal performance was mixed, with industrial, financial, and energy sectors gaining favor [3][13] - The focus has shifted from whether AI is a bubble to identifying the real industrial impacts and critical supply-demand issues as AI transitions from a thematic to a macro factor [3][13] Manufacturing Cycle Further Rising - The U.S. GDP data for Q4 2025 showed slower growth primarily due to government spending disruptions, while AI-related investments remained strong [4][25] - Non-AI and residential investment growth is showing signs of bottoming out, indicating a broader recovery in investment activities beyond just AI [4][25] - The February manufacturing PMI data indicated a recovery in global manufacturing, with Europe exceeding expectations and the U.S. maintaining expansion, suggesting a positive trend in manufacturing cycles [4][25][34] Commodities: Transitioning from Financial Overtrading to Industrial Pricing - Recent fluctuations in industrial and precious metals prices are attributed to macro and industrial events, with a return to real supply-demand signals expected [5][44] - Geopolitical risks continue to support industrial metal prices, while demand from tech giants for AI investments remains robust, indicating a potential new support for demand [5][44] - Historical data suggests that current copper and aluminum price ratios are low compared to historical manufacturing PMI levels, indicating potential for price recovery [5][44][45] Focus on Global Physical Assets vs. Chinese Assets - The core of market rebalancing is not about the existence of an AI bubble but rather the macro impacts of AI combined with monetary and major country policy choices [6][56] - The relative smooth path for future U.S. interest rate cuts is expected to support the recovery of the global manufacturing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of Chinese asset capacity [6][56] - Specific investment recommendations include physical assets like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors benefiting from capital inflows and consumption recovery in China [6][56]

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，奢侈品、高端香化、高端零售业绩修复加速，高净值人群消 费恢复或是高端消费改善的主要原因。该行认为，当前中国高端消费筑底效应已经展现，短期内高端消 费修复需依靠高净值人群的财富效应与针对中产的政策刺激。中长期看，需关注收入和就业的系统性改 善、房地产的企稳回升，以及财富效应从高净值人群向中产的扩散节奏。高端消费实际需求改善+供给 相对稀缺+政策效果强，重点推荐免税、黄金珠宝行业。 国金证券主要观点如下： 免税：低基数，强政策红利，高端消费修复，有望带动免税行业重回增长 免税是进口化妆品、奢侈品等高档消费品流通的重要渠道，将极大受益于高端消费恢复。海南自由贸易 港正式启动封关，有望对海南本地以及全国的免税业务产生明显的影响，叠加高端消费复苏趋势持续演 绎，影响逻辑有望超预期。此外，日本旅游热度下滑后，海南成为新热门目的地。去哪儿旅行、携程等 平台数据显示，截至2月初，春节假期目的地为海南的日均机票订单量同比增长超45%。 中国中免：公司基本面回暖，从内需看，高端消费的恢复是免税行业复苏的基础，免税行业存在整体性 机会；从外需看，入境游客的消费潜力，并未被市场充分认识，预期中 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant growth in Hainan's duty-free shopping, with a total spending of 1.03 billion yuan and 137,000 shoppers during the first four days of the Spring Festival holiday, representing increases of 20.9% and 25.7% respectively compared to the previous year [2] - The Hainan Free Trade Port's construction has led to a rapid increase in the share of offshore duty-free shopping in China's duty-free market, rising from 26.51% in 2018 to 95.29% in 2022, indicating that offshore duty-free shopping has become a major component of China's duty-free industry [2] - The sales figures from December 18 to 22, 2022, show that Hainan's duty-free stores generated a total of 535 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 50.3%, with daily sales exceeding 100 million yuan for five consecutive days [2] Group 2 - The duty-free industry ecosystem in China consists of foreign brands supplying products such as perfumes, cosmetics, and luxury goods, with notable companies including Armani, Chanel, and Hermès, while domestic operators like China Duty Free Group and Shenzhen Duty Free manage the retail aspect [3] - Currently, there are 10 companies in China that hold duty-free licenses, with three each in Hainan and Beijing, two in Guangdong, and one each in Shanghai and Jilin [4] - The future outlook for Hainan's duty-free industry is positive, with expectations for continued growth driven by improved policy frameworks, a wider range of products, and enhanced service experiences, positioning Hainan as an international tourism consumption center [8]

服务消费活力满满。假期前三天，重点平台国内游消费增长4.5%。重点平台租车出行订单量增长26%， 南北互跨订单量增长196%。 格隆汇2月20日｜据央视新闻，商务大数据显示，假期前四天，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额较 2025年假期前四天增长8.6%。假期前三天，商务部重点监测的78个步行街（商圈）客流量、营业额比 去年同期分别增长4.5%和4.8%。 商品消费需求旺盛。以旧换新政策效应持续显现，截至2月19日，2026年消费品以旧换新惠及2888.0万 人次，带动销售额1980.2亿元。其中，汽车以旧换新61.2万辆，带动新车销售额1005.3亿元。智能产品 备受青睐，商务大数据显示，假期前三天，重点平台智能穿戴设备销售额增长19.7%，其中智能眼镜增 长2.5倍，智能血糖仪增长48.6%。海南离岛免税销售较快增长，假期前四天，海南离岛免税销售额达 9.7亿元，增长15.8%。 ...