1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that in the 2025/26 period, the global oilseed supply will remain relatively loose, mainly due to the recovery of rapeseed and sunflower seed production and a slight increase in soybean production. The prices of oils and protein meals are expected to be weak in the early fourth - quarter, but may rise towards the end of the year if the La Nina weather is strong. [5][6][8] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a bearish view on oils and protein meals in the short - term, look for opportunities to go long on oils at the end of the year in the medium - term, and consider long - short spread trading strategies such as going long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil, and going long on the oil - meal ratio in the medium - to long - term. [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - **Supply**: The global oilseed supply in 2025/26 will be relatively loose. Rapeseed and sunflower seed production will recover, and soybean production will slightly increase. In the US, soybean planting area decreases but with high yield; in Argentina, the planting area drops and there is a high probability of La Nina, which may lead to significant production reduction; in Brazil, the planting area increases, expected to offset the reduction from the US and Argentina. In China, soybean imports are large, palm oil imports are low, and rapeseed inventory in oil mills is at a low level. [6] - **Demand**: Global vegetable oil consumption increases annually, with a 2.5% growth in edible consumption and a 5.13% increase in industrial consumption in 2025/26. India's edible demand and the bio - fuel policies of Indonesia, the US, and Brazil are key factors. Protein meal demand is expected to decline due to the reduction of sow inventory and other factors. [7] - **Outlook and Strategies**: Oils and protein meals are expected to be weak in the early fourth - quarter. If La Nina is strong at the end of the year, oils may rise. Short - term: bearish on oils and protein meals; Medium - term: look for long - oil opportunities at the end of the year; Arbitrage: long rapeseed oil and short palm oil, long oil - meal ratio. [8] 3.2 Oil and Oilseed Market Review - **Oil Single - sided Review**: In the first three quarters of 2025, oils showed a wave - like upward trend. They were affected by various factors such as US tariff policies, bio - fuel policies, and geopolitical conflicts. [11][14][15] - **Oil Spread Review**: The spreads between different oils fluctuated throughout the year. Palm oil was strong in some periods, while rapeseed oil was relatively resistant in others, leading to changes in spreads. [19][20] - **Protein Meal Single - sided Review**: Protein meal prices were affected by factors such as USDA reports, tariff policies, and soybean import costs. They showed an overall volatile trend. [23] - **Protein Meal Spread Review**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was mainly affected by tariff policies and market supply - demand changes, with significant fluctuations in some periods. [27] 3.3 Global Oil and Oilseed Supply - Demand Analysis - **Global Oilseed Supply**: In 2025/26, global oilseed production, consumption, and ending inventory all increase, indicating a relatively loose supply. [31] - **Global Vegetable Oil Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global vegetable oil supply and demand both increase, but demand growth is greater than supply, and ending inventory slightly decreases. [32] - **Global Protein Meal Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global protein meal supply and demand both increase, with ending inventory slightly rising, showing a loose supply. [37] - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global soybean supply is relatively loose. US soybean production decreases, while Brazil's production increases. Argentina's production may be affected by La Nina. [40] - **Palm Oil Supply - Demand**: In 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is similar to last year, but exports are weak and inventory is high. Indonesia's palm oil production recovers, exports increase, and inventory remains low. [90][94][98] - **Rapeseed and Sunflower Seed Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global rapeseed production recovers and inventory rises; global sunflower seed production increases and inventory slightly increases. [109][134] - **Oil Demand**: Global vegetable oil industrial consumption growth is expected to pick up in 2025/26. India's import demand is large, while the US bio - diesel production and consumption are low. Indonesia's bio - diesel demand increases, and Brazil's soybean oil demand rises due to the increase in blending ratio. [142][147][167] 3.4 Domestic Oil and Oilseed Supply - Demand Analysis - **Soybean Imports**: In 2025, from January to August, soybean imports increased by 4% year - on - year, mainly from South America. The proportion of US soybean imports decreased. [171] - **Soybean Inventory**: Oil mill soybean inventory is expected to be higher than the same period in previous years from October to December. [175] - **Soybean Import Cost and Profit**: As of September 29, 2025, the import cost and profit of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans vary. The purchase of Argentine soybeans is active due to good profit. [179] - **Oil Mill Operation Rate**: Since May, the oil mill operation rate has been high, and the soybean crushing volume in the first 38 weeks of 2025 increased by 5.06% year - on - year. [183] - **Palm Oil Import**: As of September 26, palm oil import losses are heavy, and the import volume is low. [190][192]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Range oscillation [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Bean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No.2: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slightly upward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of iron ore has increased uncertainty, with short - term support under supply - side interference. The follow - up focus is on the actual impact on the supply side and October steel demand [2]. - In October, the supply of coking coal in China is expected to run stably, with limited increase. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and its trend follows coking coal. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - For rebar, the futures price has a low static valuation. The supply side may shrink, and the focus is on the demand recovery in October. The price needs to see rapid post - festival inventory reduction to stabilize [2]. - The glass market has short - term support from the replenishment market, but the demand is difficult to improve fundamentally. The supply - demand is basically balanced, and the follow - up should pay attention to production and policy changes [2]. - The stock index market is volatile, with an optimistic upward outlook. Stock index long positions should maintain the current position, while Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - The logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. It is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. - Logs are expected to oscillate in a range, with supply - side pressure not significant and an increase in daily outbound volume [6]. - Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom, affected by cost support and demand factors [6]. - The oil and fat market continues the range - oscillation pattern, with significant differentiation among varieties. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean sowing and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6]. - Bean meal prices are expected to move downward in the short term, affected by supply and demand factors such as new soybean listings and changes in Chinese demand [6][7]. - Live pig prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [7]. - Natural rubber prices may show wide - range oscillation, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [9]. - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with different trends [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swaps rose slightly. There are new concerns about supply, and the short - term supply - side interference provides support. The follow - up core is steel demand in October [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: In October, domestic coking coal supply is expected to be stable, with production lower than last year. Coke's first - round price increase was implemented, and the second - round basically failed. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not large, and it follows coking coal [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: During the long holiday, Tangshan billet prices were stable. Rebar futures have a low valuation, and the supply side may shrink. The focus is on demand recovery in October, and the price needs rapid post - festival de - stocking [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment was boosted by news, and prices rose. Supply was stable last week, and there was short - term support from replenishment. However, long - term demand is suppressed by the real estate adjustment [2]. - **Soda ash**: Although the report mentions it in the context, there is no specific in - depth analysis other than the overall "oscillation" rating [2]. Financial and Precious Metals - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is volatile. The overall upward outlook is optimistic, and stock index long positions should maintain the current position [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are volatile, and Treasury bond trends are weak. Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. The logic for the rise has not reversed, and it is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Port daily shipment volume increased, and supply is expected to be tight. The cost support is enhanced, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Pulp**: Spot prices fluctuated. Cost support is enhanced, but demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double - offset paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, and demand is expected to improve, but prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oil and Fats - **Soybean oil, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil**: The oil and fat market shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. There are differences among varieties, affected by factors such as Argentine exports, biodiesel, and seasonal production [6]. - **Bean meal, Rapeseed meal**: Although there is some support from US domestic demand, new soybean listings and Brazilian production potential bring supply pressure. Prices are expected to move downward [6][7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight is declining, and supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: Supply - side pressure in Yunnan has decreased, while Hainan's output is lower than expected. Demand has improved slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Prices may show wide - range oscillation [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These products are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors. Their prices show different trends such as oscillation, wait - and - see, etc. [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main focus in the fourth quarter remains on the US biofuel policy and China-US/China-Canada relations, with policy impacts far outweighing fundamentals. After policies are gradually implemented, long opportunities mainly in palm oil are favored [5]. - The US is the biggest variable in the international oil market in the fourth quarter. The biofuel policy, especially the blending targets for 2026 - 27, as well as the redistribution plan for small refineries and the RINs coefficient for imported raw materials, will directly affect US soybean oil demand and the international oil price center [101]. - Palm oil will be influenced by US soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and it has its own drivers. The supply side may face early - onset production cuts and potential extreme rainfall due to La Nina, while the demand side focuses on Indonesia's B40 plan and potential B50 policies [102]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Market Review - Internationally, Malaysian palm oil (MPO) outperformed US soybean oil in the third quarter. US soybean oil prices fluctuated around policy expectations and market rumors, and dropped below 50 cents/pound at the end of September. MPO remained at a high level supported by supply - demand patterns and US soybean oil prices [11]. - Domestically, the three major oils showed an upward trend with significant differences in strength. Palm oil followed the international market, while soybean and rapeseed oils were more affected by policies. Palm oil had a supply - demand weak situation, soybean oil had a strong de - stocking expectation but was still accumulating inventory, and rapeseed oil had a slow de - stocking speed due to high inventory and weak consumption [14]. 3.2 International Market Outlook 3.2.1 North and South America - **US**: - The planting and harvested areas of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly. Although the current yield per acre is ideal, there is still a possibility of a decline due to insufficient rainfall [19]. - The biofuel policy is beneficial to US soybean crushing demand, but the room for further significant increases in crushing is limited. The proportion of soybean oil in biofuel raw materials has rebounded, and the 45Z subsidy and increased RVO obligations from 2026 will further boost soybean oil demand [22][25]. - There is a large divergence in the market regarding the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions. EPA's proposed re - allocation has caused dissatisfaction among refineries [38]. - After the signing of the Big and Beautiful Act, the 45Z clean fuel tax credit has become law, which will lead to a substitution of a large part of UCO and tallow demand by North - American sourced soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and corn oil [42]. - If the EPA's proposed blending targets are met, there will be a supply gap in US soybean oil in 2026, which can only be filled by increasing imports. However, due to policy uncertainties, significant growth in soybean oil consumption in the fourth quarter is unlikely [44]. - **Canada**: - The final production forecast of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is 20.1 million tons. China's anti - dumping tax on Canadian rapeseed is negative for its price, but the impact will be mitigated by expanded domestic crushing capacity and alternative export markets. Domestic crushing is expected to increase slightly, while exports will decline to 7 million tons [47]. - The price difference between European and Canadian rapeseed makes the EU have an incentive to import Canadian rapeseed. The improvement in domestic rapeseed crushing margins and the support for biofuel development offset the impact of reduced Chinese purchases [51]. 3.2.2 Asia - **Malaysian Palm Oil (MPO)**: - As of the third quarter, MPO had sufficient inventory, but production cuts may start earlier in September due to weather conditions. In the fourth quarter, the probability of La Nina increases, and there is a risk of floods and over - expected production cuts [53][70]. - MPO's domestic demand is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, mainly due to potential CPO exports as POME to the EU and the support of biodiesel consumption [59]. - In terms of demand, MPO exports may recover slightly in the fourth quarter, with a peak in October. If US soybean oil can support the global soybean oil price center, palm oil may still be the preferred choice for countries like India [73]. - The pressure on MPO to accumulate inventory has passed, and it is expected to start de - stocking in September - October and accelerate the process in the fourth quarter [76]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil (IPO)**: - IPO production has recovered well this year, but the potential impact of the government's crackdown on illegal plantations remains. The transfer of plantation management may lead to supply uncertainties [79]. - It is difficult to achieve both high exports and high inventory in Indonesia. Domestic demand is more rigid, and the B40 plan needs to catch up in the fourth quarter. The inventory is expected to remain at around 2 million tons [83]. - The biodiesel industry in Indonesia is suffering serious losses, but it has little impact on actual blending. As of July 16, 2025, the B40 plan completion rate was about 47.51%. To complete the plan, there is still a large amount of remaining allocation and palm oil consumption required [90][91]. - **India**: - Before the Diwali festival, India's vegetable oil inventory is still low. In August, palm oil imports increased significantly, while soybean oil imports decreased. The total edible oil imports reached a 13 - month high [94]. - After replenishing inventory from June - August, India still has a need to continue purchasing and accumulating inventory. In the fourth quarter, India is expected to mainly purchase palm oil and South American soybean oil, with palm oil imports showing a trend of high in the early part and low in the late part [97][100]. 3.3 Domestic Market Outlook - **Palm Oil**: - In the fourth quarter, domestic palm oil is expected to maintain a supply - demand weak situation, following the international market. The narrowing import profit margin has led to an increase in purchases, and the inventory has reached a relatively high level, which is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [104][106]. - **Soybean Oil**: - In the third quarter, domestic soybean oil inventory accumulated rapidly due to a large amount of soybean arrivals and weak consumption. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to gradually de - stock, but inventory may still accumulate until the middle and late fourth quarter and then turn to de - stocking. Although exports have increased significantly, the possibility of large - scale exports continuing is low after India's备货 ends [111][134]. - If there is no reconciliation between China and the US and no purchase of US soybeans, there may be a shortage of soybean oil in the first quarter of next year [117]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - Currently, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is extremely high, especially after the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The import of rapeseed has decreased significantly, and the oil mill's rapeseed intake has shrunk year - on - year. The开机 rate is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter [120][125]. - The high price of rapeseed oil has led to low consumption, and it has been mostly replaced by soybean oil. Near the Double Festival, demand is expected to improve slightly [128]. - Russia has become the main source of China's rapeseed oil imports. Although imports can supplement the short - term supply, they cannot fully make up for the long - term gap caused by the lack of Canadian rapeseed [131]. 3.4 Strategies and Summary - The core is the US biofuel policy, which affects the global oil price center. Before the policy is determined, the market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 50 - 60 cents/pound [137]. - **Palm Oil**: - In the fourth quarter, palm oil is driven by supply and biodiesel. It is expected that Indonesia's B40 plan can be successfully completed, and domestic demand will increase. After the US biofuel policy is settled, palm oil prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategies are to go long on the palm oil 01 contract, conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads, and shrink the soybean - palm oil 01 contract price difference [137]. - **Soybean Oil**: - The current situation of the soybean oil market is weak, and it is difficult to see de - stocking in the short term. The inventory pressure may ease in the second half of the fourth quarter, but supply shortages are unlikely to occur. The recommended strategy is to shrink the soybean - palm oil 01 contract price difference [137]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - The spot supply of rapeseed oil is relatively sufficient, but the supply gap of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is highly certain, and the market sentiment for going long is better than that of soybean oil. The recommended strategies are to go long on the rapeseed oil 01 contract and conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads [137].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report anticipates a differentiated trend in the oil and fat market and suggests waiting for opportunities for supply - demand resonance. It provides investment advice on unilateral trading, basis trading, inter - month arbitrage, and cross - variety spread trading for different types of oils [1][2]. - Palm oil is expected to be short - term volatile and long - term bullish; soybean oil is short - term bearish and medium - term neutral; rapeseed oil shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern with a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q3 2025, the futures prices of the three major domestic oils showed differentiation. Palm oil prices were volatile from July to September, affected by Indonesia's policies and Malaysia's inventory and demand. Soybean oil prices were range - bound due to factors like US soybean production and potential biodiesel demand. Rapeseed oil prices strengthened due to supply shortages and inventory depletion [9]. 3.2 Global Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Overview 3.2.1 Global Oilseeds - In the 2025/26 season, global oilseeds are expected to be in a tighter situation. The ending inventory is estimated to be 143.08 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 16.1%, down 0.13 percentage points year - on - year. Demand growth exceeds inventory growth [12][13]. 3.2.2 Global Oils and Fats - The global oil and fat market is becoming increasingly tight, mainly driven by the growing demand for biodiesel. Production is expected to reach 234.69 million tons in 2025/26, up 2.47% year - on - year, while demand is expected to reach 229.28 million tons, up 3.04% [14]. 3.3 Palm Oil Origin Situation 3.3.1 Malaysia - The traditional palm oil production reduction season in Malaysia is approaching in Q4, and there may be an early reduction in September due to abnormal precipitation and floods. Exports in September are expected to increase before the Indian Festival of Lights, and inventory is expected to decline slightly [17][21]. 3.3.2 Indonesia - In 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase, with cumulative production from January to July reaching 33.496 million tons, up 3.35 million tons year - on - year. Domestic consumption is increasing due to the implementation of B40, and exports have not decreased as expected [25][30]. 3.4 Soybean Origin Situation 3.4.1 Brazil - In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to be 171.47 million tons, up 13.3% year - on - year. Exports are expected to be 106.65 million tons, up 8% year - on - year. The implementation of B15 in 2025 will increase the demand for soybean oil. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in winter 2025, which may affect new - crop yields [35][38]. 3.4.2 United States - In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area is estimated to be 81.1 million acres, down about 7% year - on - year. As of September 21, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate was 61%. The total production is estimated to be 4.301 billion bushels. The new RVO proposed by the EPA will increase the demand for vegetable oils [40][55]. 3.5 Rapeseed Origin Situation 3.5.1 Canada - In the 2025/26 season, Canada's rapeseed planting area is expected to decrease by 2.0% year - on - year, but production is expected to increase by 4.1% due to higher yields. Exports have been poor due to China's anti - dumping measures [58][64]. 3.6 Major Consumer Countries' Situation 3.6.1 India - In August 2025, India's imports of palm oil, sunflower oil, and rapeseed oil reached a peak due to pre - festival stocking. In September, imports decreased slightly but remained at a high level. After the Festival of Lights, consumption will enter a seasonal off - season [69][70]. 3.6.2 China - For palm oil, imports are expected to weaken in Q4, and inventory is expected to remain around 500,000 tons from October to November. For soybean oil, imports are affected by Sino - US trade frictions, and supply is increasing. For rapeseed oil, production is affected by raw material shortages, and inventory is expected to decline rapidly [73][90]. 3.7 Spread Situation 3.7.1 Basis - Palm oil basis is expected to be weak in Q4; soybean oil basis is expected to oscillate weakly; rapeseed oil basis is expected to strengthen [93]. 3.7.2 Inter - month Spread - For the 1 - 5 spread in Q4, palm oil has a positive arbitrage logic, soybean oil has a reverse arbitrage logic, and rapeseed oil has a positive arbitrage logic [100]. 3.7.3 Cross - Variety Spread - In Q4, it is recommended to go long on palm oil or rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil [102].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the European demand support may not end, but the demand side is hard to provide further stimulus. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline. It's hard to say that September is the last correction window, and the market may fluctuate until the end of the year. Future price movements depend on domestic macro - stories and production [3][5][7] - For soybean oil, before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. It may seek exports in the fourth quarter and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's View and Logic - Palm oil: Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, causing the oil and fat sector to plunge on Tuesday. The palm oil 01 contract fell 1.11% last week [2] - Soybean oil: After the plunge on Tuesday, the sector rebounded slowly. The US soybean main contract fell 1.17% and the soybean oil 01 contract fell 2.09% last week [2] 2. This Week's View and Logic Palm oil - Supply side: In September, rainfall may lead to flat or decreased production in Malaysia, with an estimated output of 180 - 185 million tons. Indonesia's annual production increase is at least 5.5 million tons. Although the inventory pressure is not fully released, the current price may have factored in Indonesia's price - cut attitude [3] - Demand side: In the consumer market, the import profit of Indian soybean oil and sunflower oil is better than that of CPO, and the availability of soybean oil in India has increased. The possibility of the EUDR delay has increased, and the demand side lacks stimulus [3] - Inventory: The inventory increase in Malaysia from July to September may be extremely slow. Indonesia's inventory bottomed out in August. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline [3] Soybean oil - Policy: The policy optimism of US soybean oil was fully reflected in June. The final release of RVO may be delayed. Before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound [6] - Market: US soybean oil may seek exports in the fourth quarter, and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] 3. Basic Market Data of Futures - Palm oil main continuous contract: Opened at 9,322 yuan/ton, closed at 9,236 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [9] - Soybean oil main continuous contract: Opened at 8,320 yuan/ton, closed at 8,162 yuan/ton, down 2.09% [9] 4. Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats - Production: Malaysia's palm oil production in September is expected to be flat or slightly decreased compared to the previous month [11] - Inventory: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September is expected to increase slightly. Indonesia's inventory is expected to recover to last year's level after the second quarter [11][13] - Export: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 were 1.288462 million tons, a 12.9% increase compared to the same period last month [14] - Price difference: The price difference between Indian soybean oil and palm oil has weakened, and the import profit of palm oil is significantly lower than that of soybean and sunflower oil [17]

Group 1: Core Views - Palm oil in the international market: After continuous rebounds, Malaysia's BMD crude palm oil futures may face resistance around 4,450 ringgit. With potential downward pressure, there's a risk of seeking support at 4,300 ringgit. After a second - round adjustment and stabilization, there's a chance of a rebound, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong view [3]. - Palm oil in the domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures rose and then fell, facing resistance at the 40 - day moving average of 9,350 yuan. There's a risk of a decline, potentially following Malaysia's palm oil and retesting the 8,800 - 9,000 yuan range. Watch for the possibility of breaking through 9,350 yuan and beware of post - National Day holiday decline risks [3]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybeans and soy oil are in narrow - range oscillations, and BMD palm oil is also slightly fluctuating. Affected by uncertain Sino - US trade relations, funds are likely to withdraw before the holiday. Spot备货 is mostly finished, and the market will enter the holiday mode. Domestic soybean oil futures will maintain a range - bound trend, with the January contract supported at 8,000 yuan [4]. - Bean meal: Argentina's completed export quota eases its impact on the domestic market. Weak reality and risk - aversion sentiment pressure the market. Before the holiday, Dalian bean meal will oscillate around 2,950 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range from 2,900 to 3,150 yuan/ton [16]. Group 2: Price Data Oil Price Data - Palm oil: Palm oil 01 is at 9,236 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; Palm oil 05 is at 9,052 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; Palm oil 09 is at 8,660 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; BMD palm oil主力 is at 4,406 ringgit/ton with a - 0.74% decrease; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 9,190 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [7]. - Soybean oil: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,162 yuan/ton with a - 1.01% decrease; Soybean oil 05 is at 7,926 yuan/ton with a - 0.4% decrease; Soybean oil 09 is at 7,858 yuan/ton with a - 0.42% decrease; CBOT soybean oil主力 is at 50.2 cents/pound with a 0.86% increase; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8,380 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase [13]. Oil Spread Data - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 192 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase; P 5 - 9 is 376 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase; P 9 - 1 is - 576 yuan/ton with an 8 - yuan decrease [5]. - Soybean oil spreads: Y 1 - 5 is 262 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan increase; Y 5 - 9 is 68 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase; Y 9 - 1 is - 326 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan decrease [5]. - Other spreads: Y - P 01 is - 1,030 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan decrease; Y - P 05 is - 1,100 yuan/ton with an 8 - yuan decrease; Y - P 09 is - 802 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan decrease; Y/M 01 is 2.761 with a - 0.13% decrease; Y/M 05 is 2.8711 with a 0.52% increase; Y/M 09 is 2.7408 with a 0.61% increase; OI 1 - 5 is 484 yuan/ton with no change; OI 5 - 9 is 92 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase; OI 9 - 1 is - 576 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan decrease; OI/RM 01 is 4.1498 with a 0.18% increase; OI/RM 05 is 4.1221 with a 1.3% increase; OI/RM 09 is 3.9513 with a 1.32% increase [5]. Meal Price and Spread Data - Meal prices: Bean meal 01 is at 2,937 with a - 30 decrease and - 1.01% decrease; Bean meal 05 is at 2,751 with an - 11 decrease and - 0.4% decrease; Bean meal 09 is at 2,858 with a - 12 decrease and - 0.42% decrease; Rapeseed meal 01 is at 2,405 with a - 39 decrease and - 1.6% decrease; Rapeseed meal 05 is at 2,327 with a - 16 decrease and - 0.68% decrease; Rapeseed meal 09 is at 2,407 with a - 14 decrease and - 0.58% decrease; CBOT yellow soybeans are at 1,012 with no change; The offshore RMB is at 7.1443 with a 0.0063 increase and 0.09% increase [17]. - Meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 205 with a 24 - yuan increase; M05 - 09 is - 108 with a - 1 decrease; M09 - 01 is - 97 with a - 23 decrease; RM01 - 05 is 101 with a 25 - yuan increase; RM05 - 09 is - 78 with a 1 - yuan increase; RM09 - 01 is - 23 with a - 26 decrease [18][20].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a regulatory letter to Jiangsu Grain Holdings, indicating issues with the company's subsidiary operations in palm oil, peanut oil, peanut, and soybean trading, where some transactions lacked commercial substance and revenue recognition did not comply with accounting standards, involving an amount of approximately 299 million yuan, which accounts for 2.51% of the company's audited revenue for 2023 [1] - The company is reminded to adhere strictly to the Securities Law, Company Law, and the Stock Listing Rules, ensuring accurate and timely information disclosure to prevent similar incidents in the future [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Jiangsu Grain Holdings was as follows: oil and fat accounted for 91.34%, food manufacturing accounted for 8.45%, and other businesses accounted for 0.21% [1] Group 2 - As of the report, the market capitalization of Jiangsu Grain Holdings is 4.7 billion yuan [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Protein Meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal rebounded. Argentina temporarily取消 export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat, increasing global soybean market pressure. With ongoing US soybean harvest and unclear export prospects, domestic supply increase expectations and lower import costs may lead to short - term low - level oscillations of domestic soybean meal futures [2]. - Oils and Fats: Night trading of oils and fats was strong. In Malaysia, concerns about palm oil production due to floods in Sabah have subsided. Both production and exports of Malaysian palm oil decreased in September 1 - 20, 2025. Argentina取消 export taxes on soybean oil and meal, pressuring soybean oil prices and affecting palm oil's cost - effectiveness. This is expected to continue to drag down the performance of oils and fats in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8100, 9126, and 9921 respectively, with changes of 14, 72, and - 75, and percentage changes of 0.17%, 0.80%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 2930, 2457, and 8844, with changes of 2, - 35, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.07%, - 1.40%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc., showed different changes compared to the previous values. For example, Y9 - 1 changed from - 296 to - 320 [1]. International Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4299 (ringgit/ton), 1009 (cents/bushel), 50 (cents/pound), and 276 (dollars/ton), with changes of - 84, - 4, - 0, and - 1, and percentage changes of - 1.92%, - 0.40%, - 0.14%, and - 0.40% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and fats and meals in different regions showed different percentage changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.85%, while the spot price of Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil decreased by 0.59% [1]. - **Spot Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads also changed. For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 210, and the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 590 to - 560 [1]. Import and Crushing Profits - Import and crushing profits for different products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, etc., changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import and crushing profit of Malaysian palm oil changed from - 656 to - 417 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, etc., showed some changes. For example, the warehouse receipts of palm oil decreased from 1570 to 1500 [1]. Industry Information - Indonesia's palm oil exports in July 2025 were 354 tons, production was 511 tons, and inventory was 257 tons, slightly increasing from the previous month [2]. - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) lowered the September soybean export forecast from 753 tons to 715 tons and increased the September corn export forecast from 712 tons to 761 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market rebounded on Wednesday, with the technology sector leading the rise and consumer stocks experiencing a correction. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, but the basis spreads of the main contracts were deeply in a discount state [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals stopped rising and slightly corrected at high levels due to the easing of geopolitical risks, the resilience of the US economy, and the rebound of the US dollar [9]. - The shipping index (European line) EC showed a volatile trend. The market has digested the impact of the previous decline in spot prices, and attention can be paid to the upward opportunities of contracts 12 and 02 when shipping companies raise their quotes in mid - to early October [12]. - The prices of various non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, copper prices rose rapidly due to supply concerns, while the price of alumina was in a state of wide - range bottom - level oscillation with limited downward space [12][17]. - The prices of black metals were also volatile. Steel prices continued to oscillate, and the prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke were affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [41][44][47]. - The prices of agricultural products showed different trends. The purchase of Argentine soybeans by China weakened the expected supply gap of domestic meal products, while the price of live pigs was stable in supply and demand and difficult to improve before the National Day [55][58]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Wednesday, the A - share market opened lower and then oscillated upwards. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.80%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.28%. The technology sector led the rise, while consumer stocks corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, with IF2512 and IH2512 rising 1.69% and 0.94% respectively, and IC2512 and IM2512 rising 3.90% and 3.21% respectively. The basis spreads of the main contracts were deeply in a discount state [2][3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, the market digested the expectation and turned to oscillation. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price near 6600 at a light position when the index corrects to collect option premiums [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.10%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.03%. The yields of major interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose [5]. - **Funding Situation**: On September 24, the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan. However, after the market, the central bank announced that it would conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on September 25, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is still a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended that investors mainly conduct range operations on a single - side strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: On September 24, the US announced a trade agreement with the EU and a support plan for Argentina, which eased the risk of asset selling in Argentina and reduced the risk - aversion sentiment. The US new home sales increased significantly, and the US dollar index rebounded. International gold prices ended a three - day rising streak, falling 0.74% to $3736.07 per ounce, and international silver prices fell slightly by 0.2% to $43.89 per ounce [7][9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price fluctuates above $41 [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotations**: As of September 22, the freight quotations for Shanghai - European basic ports in the next six weeks were in a certain range. For example, Maersk's quotation was $840 - 1279/FEU and $1400 - 2038/FEU [11]. - **Shipping Index**: As of September 22, the SCFIS European line index was 1254.92 points, a week - on - week decrease of 14.3%. The Shanghai - Europe freight rate decreased by 9% to $1052/TEU [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of September 24, the global container shipping capacity exceeded 33 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The eurozone's composite PMI in August was 51, and the US manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7 [11]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures market oscillated. The market has digested the impact of the previous decline in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see in an oscillating market and pay attention to the upward opportunities of contracts 12 and 02 when shipping companies raise their quotes in mid - to early October [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of September 24, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 80045 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 80030 yuan/ton [12]. - **Macro**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the "dot plot" predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year [13]. - **Supply**: The Grasberg mine accident continued to cause supply concerns. Freeport announced force majeure, and it is expected that the mine will not return to its pre - accident production level until 2027. The production of domestic electrolytic copper in September is expected to decline month - on - month [14]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the decline in copper prices, and the overall spot trading improved [15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventories decreased, domestic social inventories decreased, and COMEX copper inventories increased [16]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The supply concern of global copper mines supported the copper price. It is recommended to hold long positions, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - **Spot**: On September 24, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guangxi, and Guizhou all decreased [17]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of Chinese metallurgical - grade alumina increased month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that the operating capacity will continue to increase slightly in September [18]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the port inventory of alumina decreased week - on - week, and the total registered quantity of alumina warehouse receipts decreased compared with the previous week [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". It is expected that the main contract will oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On September 24, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 20680 yuan/ton, and the average premium of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of aluminum water increased slightly [20]. - **Demand**: The downstream entered the traditional peak season, and the orders of profile enterprises improved, with the operating rates of various sectors remaining stable or increasing [20]. - **Inventory**: There was a positive signal in inventory. On September 24, the daily inventory of three - location aluminum ingots decreased by 0.85 tons, and the expectation of an approaching inventory inflection point was enhanced [21]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Although there is uncertainty at the macro level, the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is expected that the short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract referring to the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [21]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc, Tin, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate) - **Zinc**: The price of zinc showed an oscillating trend. The supply was expected to be loose, and the upward space was limited. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [28]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply side provided support. The tin price was expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [29][32]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price oscillated upwards. The output of refined nickel was at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand was stable. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 119000 - 124000 yuan/ton [32][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel oscillated slightly upwards. The supply pressure existed, and the demand in the peak season was not significantly released. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate oscillated weakly. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. The main contract price was expected to oscillate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [41]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price of steel was stable, with rebar remaining stable and hot - rolled coil rising slightly [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost had support, and the profit of steel decreased from a high level. The profit ranking was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [42]. - **Supply**: The output of iron elements increased year - on - year from January to August, and the output of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil remained at a high level [42]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major steel products was basically flat year - on - year from January to August, and the export of steel maintained a high level [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products increased, and it was expected that the inventory center would continue to rise [43]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: Steel prices were expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. It was recommended to try to go long with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [43]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price of mainstream iron ore powder showed a slight change, and the futures price of iron ore oscillated [44]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased, while the steel mill profitability rate decreased slightly [44]. - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [45]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, the daily average port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [45]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: The iron ore market was in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It was recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures oscillated and rebounded. The spot price of domestic coking coal was strong, and the price of Mongolian coal rose [47][48]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines increased, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal decreased [48][49]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to rise, the coking operation rate remained stable, and the downstream replenishment demand increased [49]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coal mines, ports, and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coal washing plants, coking plants, and ports increased [50]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: It was recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [51]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The second - round price cut of coke by steel mills was implemented, and some coking enterprises began to raise prices [52][54]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants was - 17 yuan/ton [53]. - **Supply**: The daily output of coke of independent coking plants and steel mills remained stable [53]. - **Demand**: The steel mills continued to resume production, and the pig iron output continued to rise slightly [54]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants decreased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports increased [54]. - **View and Operation Suggestion**: It was recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The spot price of domestic soybean meal showed mixed trends, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the trading volume of rapeseed meal was zero [55]. - **Fundamentals**: China purchased at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans after Argentina取消谷物和油籽出口关税. The sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was faster than in previous years [55][56]. - **Outlook**: The price of US soybeans was expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. The supply of domestic soybean meal was abundant, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal was expected to continue to weaken [57]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs oscillated. The national average price was 12.65 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase [58]. - **Market Data**: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased. The enthusiasm of retail farmers and secondary fattening farmers to slaughter increased [58]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of live pigs were stable, and the price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to oscillate and adjust [59]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot price of corn in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia was generally weak, while the price in North China and the Huang - Huai region was partially strong. The port price decreased [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in the four northern ports decreased week - on - week, and the shipment volume also decreased [60]. - **Outlook**: The corn price was expected to oscillate weakly under the bearish expectation [60].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on September 24 saw more gains than losses, with the glass main contract rising over 4% and fuel oil main contract increasing over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1456.69 points, up 9.04 points or 0.62% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Glass Industry Insights - The glass main contract experienced a significant increase, with a peak rise of nearly 8% during the trading session, ultimately closing with a 4.74% gain [2] - Market sentiment was driven by rumors of a meeting among glass enterprises and the issuance of a growth stabilization plan for the building materials industry by multiple government departments [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, the glass industry is still at the bottom of the real estate cycle, with weak demand and a need for capacity reduction to address oversupply [2] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Domestic oil-related products rose across the board, with SC crude oil and fuel oil main contracts recording gains of over 1% and 3%, respectively [3] - Concerns over global supply tightening were heightened by recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and potential diesel export bans by the Russian government [3] - Short-term price trends for fuel oil are expected to remain strong due to cost support and recovering demand, although a potential decline in purchasing sentiment is anticipated post-holiday [3] Group 4: Other Commodity Movements - The shipping European line saw a rise, with the main contract increasing over 2% after peaking at over 6% during the session [4] - Oilseed and oil products remained weak, with the main contracts for soybean meal and oil experiencing slight declines, while palm oil showed a small increase due to tightening supply expectations [5][6] - Palm oil prices may rise by approximately 15% as the seasonal high production cycle ends, and potential shortages could arise if Indonesia implements specific policies [6]