1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Palm Oil**: In 2025, the palm oil market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the center of the price shifting upwards. In 2026, the global supply - demand of palm oil is expected to remain in a tight - balance state. The price is likely to show a fluctuating trend with a rising center, ranging from 8300 to 9800. Domestic supply and demand are expected to continue the double - weak trend [2][3][153]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals**: In 2025, the rapeseed oil futures fluctuated upwards, while the rapeseed meal futures showed wide - range fluctuations. In 2026, the global supply of rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, and the supply - demand outlook will turn loose. However, the domestic supply will be tight. The prices of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate, with the price range of rapeseed oil from 9000 to 10100 and that of rapeseed meal from 2200 to 2800 [3][4][156]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 H1 Market Trend Review - **Palm Oil**: The price experienced significant drops, rebounds, and fluctuations due to factors such as the delay of Indonesia's B40 policy, changes in export demand, and geopolitical situations [17][18]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price showed a trend of decline, rise, and then decline again, affected by factors like import policies, geopolitical situations, and inventory changes [21][22]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price fluctuated greatly, influenced by factors such as changes in soybean supply, trade relations, and seasonal demand [26][27]. 3.2 Production, Supply, and Import - Export of Oil Crops - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's production increased significantly, and Malaysia's production remained high even in the off - season. Overseas demand was at an average level, and Indonesia's B40 policy benefited domestic biodiesel demand. China's import profit was low, and the import volume was low [29][35][50]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals**: The supply of old - season rapeseed was tight, and the inventory - consumption ratio decreased slightly. After the anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed, Australia's rapeseed gradually replaced it as an import source [58][71]. 3.3 Oil Mill Pressing, Consumption, and Demand - **Biodiesel Consumption**: Diesel strength improved biodiesel blending profit, and Indonesia's B40 policy advanced well. The EPA's proposed rule indicated an unexpected increase in US biodiesel, and its actual implementation needs attention [80][81]. - **Palm Oil Domestic Inventory**: Supply turned loose, while demand remained weak. In the first half of 2025, it was in a double - weak state, and the inventory increased in the second half [82]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals Production, Operation, and Consumption Demand**: Coastal oil mills were close to shutdown but were expected to recover at the end of the year. Supply lacked increment, but inventory was still high due to weak demand [92][100]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Its Interpretation - **Global Rapeseed**: In the 2024/25 season, production decreased, and inventory tightened. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to increase, and supply will turn loose [107][108]. - **Domestic Rapeseed**: In the 2024/25 season, production and import increased. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to increase slightly, but import will be restricted, and supply will be tight [109][110]. - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Meal**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic production of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decline, and there will be supply gaps [114]. - **Palm Oil**: In the 2024/25 season, global production and demand increased, and inventory decreased. In the 2025/26 season, supply and demand are expected to increase, and inventory will accumulate slightly [116]. 3.5 Seasonal Analysis - **Palm Oil**: Its price is affected by factors such as oil production and festival consumption. The price usually drops in March - April and June and rises in the fourth quarter [119]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Its price has seasonal fluctuations related to weather and consumption. It rises in winter and drops in May - June [122]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Its consumption is seasonal, with high demand from May to August and low demand in winter [125]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - **Palm Oil**: The medium - and long - term upward trend remains, and attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels in Q1 2026 [128]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price has fallen to the annual average line, and attention should be paid to the market performance near the annual line [132]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It maintained a box - shock trend, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the shock range [137]. 3.7 Option Analysis - **Palm Oil Option**: Volatility remained stable, and the market expects the short - term price to fluctuate between 8400 and 9000 [140]. - **Rapeseed Oil Option**: Volatility decreased compared to last year, and the market has obvious differences in the future price, with the range from 8200 to 11200 [144]. - **Rapeseed Meal Option**: Volatility decreased, and market participation declined. The market's price prediction range is from 2300 to 2600 [148][150]. 3.8 Full - Text Summary and Future Market Outlook - **Palm Oil**: In 2026, global supply - demand is expected to remain in a tight - balance state, and the price is expected to fluctuate with a rising center. Domestic supply and demand will continue to be weak [153][155]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals**: In 2026, global supply will turn loose, while domestic supply will be tight. Prices are expected to fluctuate, and the key factor is the development of China - Canada trade relations [156][157]. 3.9 Related Listed Company Stock Statistics The report provides stock price and year - to - date performance data of several listed companies in the grain and oil processing, feed processing, and aquaculture industries [159].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of palm oil declined this week. The decline of BMD Malaysian palm oil was mainly affected by factors such as the unexpected inventory build - up in November, the expected increase in supply and decrease in demand in the first 10 days of December, and the drop in international crude oil prices. The decline of DCE palm oil was influenced by the above - mentioned factors and the decrease in import costs [8][11]. - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise slightly by the end of December. There is a risk that the inventory may approach or slightly exceed 3 million tons if export weakness persists or demand recovery is slower than normal [34]. - Global palm oil production, ending stocks, and exports in the 2025/26 period are all expected to be lower than last month's estimates [34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 BMD Malaysian Palm Oil - As of December 12, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 02 contract closed at 4,018 ringgit/ton, down 3.23% from last week. The price decline was due to factors like the unexpected inventory build - up in November, expected supply - demand changes in December, and the drop in international crude oil prices. In November, production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, while SPPOMA data showed a 6.87% month - on - month increase in production in the first 10 days of December. Exports in November decreased by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons, and exports in the first 10 days of December are expected to decline [8]. 1.2 DCE Palm Oil - This week, the main contract of DCE palm oil switched to the 2605 contract. As of December 12, the 2601 contract closed at 8,608 yuan/ton, down 1.85% from last week, and the 2605 contract closed at 8,552 yuan/ton, down 2.40% from last week. The price decline was affected by the unexpected inventory build - up in Malaysian palm oil in November, expected supply - demand changes in December, and the decrease in import costs. Spot prices also decreased, with a slight increase in inventory and weak downstream transactions [11]. 2. Production Area Weather 2.1 Malaysian Production Area Weather - From December 6 - 12, most areas had precipitation at or below the historical normal level, with some areas having 15 - 100mm higher or lower. From December 13 - 19, most areas are expected to have precipitation at or above the historical normal level, except for the Sabah region [14][16]. 2.2 Indonesian Production Area Weather - From December 6 - 12, precipitation in different parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan was either above or below the historical normal level. From December 13 - 19, rainfall in the main palm - oil producing areas of Indonesia is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level [19][21]. 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 MPOB November Report - In November, Malaysian palm oil's ending inventory increased by 13.04% month - on - month to 2.835 million tons. Production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, exports decreased by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons, and imports decreased by 36.12% month - on - month to 23,000 tons [23]. 3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil December Forecast - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data showed a 10.31% decrease in exports from December 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month, and ITS data showed a 15% decrease [30]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data indicated a 6.87% month - on - month increase in production in the first 10 days of December, with a 7.24% increase in FFB yield and a 0.07% decrease in oil extraction rate [32]. 3.3 Other Important Information - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach 20 - 20.5 million tons this year. Inventory is expected to rise slightly by the end of December, and there is a risk of inventory approaching or exceeding 3 million tons. Global 2025/26 palm oil production, ending stocks, and exports are all expected to be lower than last month's estimates [34]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - This week, the import profit of palm oil for January - March 2026 shipments showed a wider negative spread [35]. 4.2 Palm Oil Transactions - This week, palm oil transactions increased. As of December 12, the weekly transaction volume was 1,600 tons, an increase of 900 tons or 129% from last week [38]. 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - As of December 5, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 683,700 tons, a 4.62% increase from last week and a 32.32% increase from the same period last year [40][41]. 5. Domestic and International Futures and Spot Prices and Spreads of Oils 5.1 Basis, Monthly Spread, and Variety Spread - **Palm Oil Basis and Monthly Spread**: The report presents the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in different regions against the 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil [44][48]. - **Variety Spread and POGO Spread**: The report shows the international soybean - palm oil spread, POGO spread, international rapeseed - palm oil spread, international sunflower - palm oil spread, domestic soybean - palm oil spread, and domestic rapeseed - palm oil spread [50][54]. 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Positions - The report provides the quantity of DCE palm oil warehouse receipts and the positions of the 05 contract [56]. 5.3 FOB Quotations - The report shows the FOB quotations of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [59].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251209 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外市场情绪谨慎，国内政治局会议召开 海外方面，特朗普政策出现"科技局部松动与贸易再趋强硬"的双重信号：政府拟允许 英伟达 H200 以收费模式对华出口，显示高端芯片监管出现边际调整；同时特朗普再度施压 邻国，威胁提升对墨西哥和加拿大的关税，引发外部摩擦升温。热门美联储主席候选人哈塞 特重申，美联储应坚持数据依赖，不提前给出路径承诺。多重政策预期交织下，市场情绪偏 谨慎，美股震荡走弱，美元指数回升至 99，10Y 美债收益率升至 4.16%，铜价续创新高，而 油金承压回落。 国内方面，中央政治局会议部署 2026 年经济工作，强调稳中求进、提质增效，继续实 施积极财政与适度宽松货币政策，加大逆周期与跨周期调节，提升宏观治理效能。会议提出 坚持内需主导、建设强大国内市场，并以创新驱动培育壮大新动能，总体而言符合预期，等 待下半周中央经济工作会议更多细节。11 月外贸明显回升，出口同比 5.9%，进口同比 1.9%， 对欧盟、非洲、拉美地区出口走强是 ...

| CNF到岸价: | 指标 | | --- | --- | | 名称 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8230 | 8706 | 9502 | 2778 | 2395 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -36 | -64 | -116 | -43 | -2 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.44% | -0.73% | -3.15% | -1.52% | -0.08% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 | 现值 | -278 | -160 | -102 | -594 | 1448 | ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/12/08 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：近端宽松预期下，短期上方空间有限 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性偏空 | （1）洪水带来的产量影响未知，但GAPKI官方表示对印尼产量影响较小，马来的减产幅度也不足以消化库存压力；（2）全球大豆丰产，国内豆油供 | | | | 给正常；（3）加拿大、澳大利亚上调菜籽产量，外部菜籽宽松在贸易壁垒下未充分交易，国内菜籽短期仍较短缺，但后续有宽松预期。 | | 需求 | 观望 | （1）印尼近期仍宣称将维护能源的自主性，说明长期推进生柴产业的大方向不会改变，但B50将明年下半年落地，时间较远短期难带来驱动；（2）原 定10月31日敲定的生柴RVO未落定，观望；（3）豆油国内消费稳定、另有出口端支撑。 | | 库存 | 观望 | 国内油脂总库存仍处高位，菜油因原料短缺持续去库，棕榈油因贸易商大量买船有补库预期，豆油则需关注美豆进口后的去向（国储/商业压榨）。 | | 宏观及政策 | 偏空 | （1）印尼B50处于道路实验中，预计明年下半年实行，但有分析师 ...

2025-12-08 产业服务总部 饲料养殖中心 全球植物油：供应端，USDA11 月预估 25/26 年度全球植物油增产放慢，其中 菜油增产幅度最大而棕油增产最小。需求端，各国生物柴油政策发力，在增强油脂 国内消费的同时缩紧了油脂出口，不过总需求依然同比增长。需求增幅大于供应增 幅，25/26 年度全球植物油期末库存及库销比均同比下降，供需继续收紧，对植物油 价格有支撑。后续全球油脂市场的不确定性将主要集中于南美大豆/印尼棕油产量和 各国生物柴油政策上，可能造成价格剧烈波动：一是 25/26 年度美豆及南美豆因为 天气炒作，印尼棕油因为种植园强征等原因导致产量下降，收紧供应。二是美国和 印尼利多植物油生柴需求的生柴政策能否成功落地。 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询 业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 棕油：供应端，目前市场对 2026 年东南亚棕油产量预估较为乐观，印尼两国均 同比增产。需求端，印度人口增长带来的刚性需求与印尼 B40 计划支撑，2025 年 产地棕油出口及国内消费有望维持强劲。供需双强下，25/26 年度印马库存预计都 同比下滑，马来库存历史中位，印尼库存则是更紧张的历史低位。 ...

李婷 2025 年 12 月 8 日 关注马棕油累库情况 棕榈油区间震荡 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 棕榈油周报 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨38收于4152林吉特/吨，涨幅 0.92%；棕榈油01合约涨144收于8770元/吨，涨幅 1.67%；豆油01合约涨22收于8266元/吨，涨幅0.27%； 菜油01合约跌139收于9618元/吨，跌幅1.42%；CBOT豆 油主连跌0.38收于51.7美分/磅，跌幅0.73%；ICE油菜 籽活跃合约跌33.5收于618.2加元/吨，跌幅5.14%。 ⚫ 随着东南亚洪灾题材降温，盘面上涨动能减弱；但 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly lower during the night session, with the black series leading the declines [1] - Coking coal fell by 5.24%, indicating significant downward pressure in the black series [1] - Agricultural products mostly declined, with corn starch dropping by 1.70% [1] Group 2 - Chemical products also saw a majority decline, with ethylene glycol decreasing by 1.64% [1] - Non-metallic building materials showed mixed results, with PVC down by 0.99% [1] - Oilseeds and oils mostly fell, with rapeseed meal decreasing by 0.71% [1] Group 3 - Energy products had gains, with low-sulfur fuel oil increasing by 1.32%, indicating some strength in this sector [1]

油脂油料产业日报 2025/12/05 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...