Group 1: Report Core Views - Palm oil fundamentals are dominated by the contradiction between improved external exports and high domestic inventories. Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 10 increased by 5.1% - 5.5% MoM, and Indonesia's low - price palm oil continues to attract Asian buyers. However, domestic palm oil inventory reached 251.2 million tons as of July 10, suppressing price increases. Monitor Malaysia's export sustainability and domestic inventory reduction [3]. - Soybean oil fundamentals show a growing divergence between international and domestic markets. The US House passed the Clean Energy Spending Act, which may increase soybean oil demand by about 2 million tons if implemented. But in China, high supply from large soybean arrivals and high - level crushing, along with low consumption in summer, limit price increases. Key factors are US policy implementation and North American weather [4]. - Rapeseed oil maintains a pattern of high inventory and low consumption, with limited policy support. Domestic East - China rapeseed oil inventory is above 65 million tons, and consumption is weak. Policy support from import tariffs has limited impact. Monitor inventory reduction and North American rapeseed - growing area weather [5]. - For imported soybeans, third - quarter supply is abundant, with 11.5 million tons arriving in July, 11 million tons in August, and 9.5 million tons in September. In the fourth quarter, the supply gap depends on Sino - US relations. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure suppresses the spot market, and rapeseed meal follows soybean meal with a weak outlook [16]. Group 2: Oil Futures Price Information Palm Oil - Palm oil 01: 8648 yuan/ton, up 0.37%; Palm oil 05: 8438 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; Palm oil 09: 8682 yuan/ton, up 0.51%; BMD palm oil主力: 4137 ringgit/ton, down 0.22% [8]. Soybean Oil - Soybean oil 01: 7966 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; Soybean oil 05: 7626 yuan/ton, unchanged; Soybean oil 09: 7986 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; CBOT soybean oil主力: 53.49 cents/pound, up 0.41% [12]. Oil Spreads - P 1 - 5: 196 yuan/ton, down 20; Y - P 01: - 694 yuan/ton, up 36; etc. [6]. Group 3: Oilseed Futures Price Information Soybean Meal - Soybean meal 01: 3015, up 22 (0.74%); Soybean meal 05: 2704, unchanged; Soybean meal 09: 2976, up 22 (0.74%) [17]. Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed meal 01: 2323, up 7 (0.3%); Rapeseed meal 05: 2311, up 2 (0.09%); Rapeseed meal 09: 2633, up 22 (0.84%) [17]. Spreads and Basis - M01 - 05: 311, up 22; RM01 - 05: 12, up 5; etc. [19].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher during the night session, with the black series showing a general increase [1] - Coking coal rose by 2.60%, iron ore increased by 1.87%, coking coal gained 1.52%, hot-rolled coil went up by 1.39%, and rebar climbed by 1.36% [1] - In the non-metallic building materials sector, glass increased by 2.54%, while in the chemical products category, rubber rose by 1.19%, and butadiene rubber increased by 1.18% [1] Group 2 - In the oilseed and oil category, soybean meal rose by 0.99%, and soybean oil increased by 0.81% [1] - Energy products generally declined, with fuel oil down by 1.49%, low-sulfur fuel oil decreasing by 0.57%, and LPG falling by 0.48% [1] - In the chemical products sector, asphalt decreased by 0.28%, polypropylene fell by 0.18%, and soybean oil dropped by 0.34% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The weather in the US soybean producing areas remains favorable, with temperatures in July being temporarily lower and sufficient precipitation. Multiple institutions expect the US soybean production to continue rising, leading to significant supply pressure [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,678.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a环比 increase of 34 yuan or 0.39%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,920.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 26.00 yuan or 0.33%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 88.00 yuan or 0.92% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,730.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 110.00 yuan or 1.28%, with a spot basis of P09 + 52.00, a环比 increase of 76.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,100.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 180.00, a环比 increase of 36.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,640.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 90.00 yuan or 0.92%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 130.00, a环比 decrease of 2.00 yuan [1] Market News - BMI predicts that after a 1.6% year - on - year decline in the 2024/25 season, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to partially recover in the 2025/26 season, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons. However, domestic consumption in Malaysia in the 2025/26 season is expected to drop 2% from 39 million tons in the 2024/25 season to 38 million tons. StoneX analysts believe that the production outlook for US soybeans continues to improve due to good weather. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed, Argentine soybean oil, etc., have different price adjustments. Import soybean premium quotes also show some changes [2] Group 4: Charts Information - The report includes 30 charts related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a majority of price increases during the night session, particularly in the chemical sector, indicating a positive trend in commodity prices overall [1] Group 1: Chemical Products - The price of 20 rubber increased by 2.91% [1] - Rubber prices rose by 2.28% [1] - Styrene saw an increase of 1.60% [1] - Butadiene rubber rose by 1.59% [1] Group 2: Black Metals - Coking coal prices increased by 2.03% [1] - Coke prices rose by 1.59% [1] - Iron ore saw a price increase of 1.09% [1] Group 3: Non-Metallic Building Materials - Glass prices increased by 1.85% [1] - PVC prices rose by 1.20% [1] Group 4: Agricultural Products - Pulp prices increased by 1.33% [1] Group 5: Oils and Fats - Soybean meal rose by 0.24% [1] - Soybean oil remained stable [1] - Soybean one decreased by 0.10% [1] - Palm oil fell by 0.44% [1] Group 6: Energy Products - LPG prices increased by 0.34% [1] - Low sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.30% [1] - Fuel oil fell by 0.60% [1]

Report Core Views Palm Oil - Fundamental factors are supported by improved exports in Malaysia and policies in Indonesia, but high domestic inventories are suppressing price increases. Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 7 increased by 3.8% - 4.2% month - on - month, continuing the positive trend in June (up 4.5% month - on - month). Indonesian exports in June surged 48% year - on - year to 1.92 million tons. However, domestic palm oil inventories reached 2.479 million tons as of July 5, a weekly increase of 22,500 tons. Key variables include the sustainability of Malaysian exports and potential adjustments to Indonesia's export tariff policy [3]. Soybean Oil - There is a divergence between international and domestic fundamentals. International policy expectations and high domestic supply are in a tug - of - war. The US House of Representatives plans to review the "Clean Energy Expenditure Act" on July 12, which could increase the demand for soybean oil in the biodiesel industry by about 2 million tons per year if passed. But in China, the supply pressure is significant, with an expected arrival of 8.6 million tons of imported soybeans in July and a high crushing volume of 2.55 million tons. The key variables are the weather in North American soybean - growing regions and the progress of US policy implementation [4]. Rapeseed Oil - The fundamentals maintain a pattern of high inventories and low consumption, with limited policy support, and it is difficult to show improvement in the short term. The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China has remained above 630,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of over 82%. Key factors to watch are the progress of inventory reduction and the weather in North American rapeseed - growing regions [5]. Imported Soybeans and Domestic Meal - For imported soybeans, the supply in the third quarter is still relatively abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on Sino - US relations. For domestic soybean meal, supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. Rapeseed meal inventory reduction is slow, and its market trend will generally follow that of soybean meal and is expected to be weak [17]. Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - The table shows the monthly and inter - variety spreads of oils, including P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc., with corresponding prices and daily changes [6]. - Palm oil futures and spot prices are presented, including prices of different contracts, BMD palm oil, and spot prices in Guangzhou, along with their changes [7]. - Soybean oil futures and spot prices are provided, including prices of different contracts, CBOT soybean oil, and spot prices in Shandong, along with their changes [13]. Meal Price and Spread - Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are given, including closing prices, daily changes, and price change percentages of different contracts [18]. - Information on the spot and futures spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is provided, including spreads between different contracts, spot prices, and basis prices [20].

Report Summary 1. Core Data - EU's 2024/25 soybean imports reached 14.52 million tons, higher than 13.2 million tons in the same period last year [1] - EU's 2024/25 soybean meal imports were 19.39 million tons, compared to 15.28 million tons in the previous year [1] - EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.84 million tons, lower than 3.49 million tons last year [1] - EU's 2024/25 rapeseed imports totaled 7.45 million tons, higher than 5.68 million tons last year [1] - US private exporters reported selling 144,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines, with 97,000 tons for the 2024/2025 market year and 47,000 tons for the 2025/2026 market year [1] - Indonesia's 2024 palm oil exports declined 8.65% to $22.9 billion, down from $25 billion the previous year [1] 2. Market Conditions - Spot prices of various products from July 2 - 8, 2025, including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu, showed fluctuations [2] 3. Industry Challenges - Indonesia's palm oil industry had an average annual production growth rate of only 0.42% from 2020 - 2024 due to labor shortages and slow market development [1] - The EU's Zero Deforestation Act (EUDR) will take effect in December 2025, requiring products entering the European market to prove non - deforestation production and a minimum sampling ratio of 3% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. With the increase in soybean arrivals and the expectation of continued arrivals in the future, coupled with the strong expectation of a bumper North American soybean harvest, if the China-US negotiation goes smoothly and more US soybeans are purchased, there will be greater pressure later [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,466.00 yuan/ton, a change of -6 yuan or -0.07% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,894.00 yuan/ton, a change of -50.00 yuan or -0.63%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,548.00 yuan/ton, a change of -59.00 yuan or -0.61% [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,510.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan or +0.24%, and the spot basis was P09 + 44.00, a change of +26.00 yuan; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,030.00 yuan/ton, a change of -70.00 yuan/ton or -0.86%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 136.00, a change of -20.00 yuan; the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,680.00 yuan/ton, a change of -60.00 yuan or -0.62%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 132.00, a change of -1.00 yuan [1] - **Inventory Data**: As of July 4, 2025 (Week 27), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 538,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons or 0.13% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 65,000 tons or 13.73% compared to 473,100 tons last year. As of July 7, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans across the country was 636,369 tons, an increase of 26,440 tons compared to 609,929 tons on June 30 [2] - **Market News**: The agriculture minister of Telangana in India called on the central government to modify its palm oil import policy, requesting to raise the palm oil import tariff to 44% and set a minimum guaranteed price of 25,000 rupees per ton for palm oil. Bunge will transport 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal to China from a terminal in the Rosario port area, which will be Argentina's first export of soybean meal to China [2]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly lower during the night session, with significant declines in oilseeds and oils [1] - Soybean meal dropped by 0.51%, soybean oil fell by 0.44%, and palm oil increased by 0.43% [1] - The black series also experienced declines, with rebar down 0.36%, hot-rolled coil down 0.31%, iron ore down 0.27%, and coking coal down 0.24% [1] Group 2 - Chemical products showed mixed results, with asphalt rising by 0.90% and styrene increasing by 0.38%, while ethylene glycol and PVC saw slight declines of 0.07% and 0.10% respectively [1] - Energy products generally increased, with low-sulfur fuel oil up by 1.89%, fuel oil up by 1.05%, and LPG rising by 0.34% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - International crude oil prices gap down due to OPEC+ exceeding market expectations with its August production increase plan, affecting biofuel raw materials and causing a decline in CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures. Malaysian palm oil exports increased and production declined in June, with inventory expected to slightly decrease, but the Malaysian palm oil futures are in a weak oscillation due to the weakening of crude oil and external oils and fats. [6][7] - In the domestic market, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term due to the off - season demand and weakened import cost support. The arrival speed of imported palm oil is accelerating, and the domestic price follows the external market with mainly rigid demand. Rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate within a narrow range as the decline in domestic inventory and the uncertainty of subsequent imports still support the price. [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - As of July 2, the 2024/25 soybean harvest in Argentina reached 100%. The BAGE maintained the soybean production forecast at 50.3 million tons, a 15% increase from the five - year average due to ideal weather conditions during the planting season. [2] - As of July 4, 2025, Brazilian 2024/25 soybean sales reached 69.8% of the expected production, compared with 64% at the beginning of June. The sales progress was lower than 77.5% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 82.1%. [2] - In June, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans and strong downstream demand, the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume reached 1.011 billion tons, a record high. It is expected that the oil mills will maintain a high operating rate in July, with a crushing volume of about 950 million tons. [2] - From June 28 to July 4, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%, 53,500 tons higher than expected. The operating rate of domestic oil mills is expected to rise slightly from July 5 to July 11. [3] Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided Views and Strategies - Internationally, the increase in OPEC+ production in August exceeds market expectations, causing international crude oil prices to gap down, which affects biofuel raw materials and leads to a decline in CBOT soybean and soybean oil futures. The Malaysian palm oil futures are in a weak oscillation. [6][7] - Domestically, soybean oil is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, palm oil prices follow the external market, and rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate within a narrow range. [7]

Group 1 - The oilseed and oil market has shown a strong upward trend recently, driven by favorable expectations regarding U.S. biodiesel policies and a general rise in commodity prices [1][2] - The U.S. Senate's proposed tax bill aims to prohibit the use of non-North American materials for biodiesel production, which could significantly benefit U.S. soybean and corn farmers if passed [1][2] - Analysts indicate that the current international oilseed supply remains ample, with Brazil and Argentina experiencing high soybean yields, while U.S. soybean planting area is expected to decrease [2][3] Group 2 - The palm oil market is under pressure due to high production levels and cautious purchasing from India and China, which limits price increases [3] - Domestic soybean oil inventories are rising, and the market is experiencing seasonal supply pressures, leading to a weak basis for oilseed prices [3][4] - Analysts suggest that while the oil market is currently influenced by policy changes, the overall trend remains unclear, with potential for short-term fluctuations [4][5] Group 3 - The outlook for soybean meal prices is more optimistic compared to canola meal, with expectations of price increases driven by U.S. soybean market dynamics and weather factors [4] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are seen as a "gray rhino," with diminishing impacts on prices, although positive negotiations could support U.S. soybean prices [4]