Report Title - "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly Report: MPOB Malaysia Palm Oil Continued to Build Inventory in October, Focus on High-Frequency Data from Producing Areas 20251117" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil supply and demand both increased in October, with the ending inventory reaching 2464000 tons, and the current inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to high-frequency data from palm oil producing areas, changes in import demand from major consuming areas such as India, and changes in biodiesel policies of relevant countries [7]. - The price of BMD Malaysia palm oil rose this week, mainly driven by the increase in the prices of relevant international competing vegetable oils, but the poor export performance of Malaysia palm oil in the first 10 days of November limited the increase in the futures price [7]. - The price of DCE palm oil fluctuated slightly lower this week, mainly affected by the decline in the import cost of domestic palm oil and the slight increase in domestic palm oil inventory during the week, but the increase in the prices of relevant domestic competing vegetable oils limited the decline [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 BMD Malaysia Palm Oil - As of the close on November 14, the BMD Malaysia palm oil 01 contract closed at 4125 ringgit/ton, up 0.36% from last week. The price increase was driven by the increase in the prices of relevant international competing vegetable oils, but the poor export performance in the first 10 days of November limited the increase [7]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month to 2044000 tons, higher than the 5-year average. The SPPOMA estimated that the production in the first 10 days of November decreased by 2.16% month-on-month [7]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.58% month-on-month to 1693000 tons, far exceeding market expectations. However, high-frequency data from three major institutions showed that the exports in the first 10 days of November were expected to decrease by 9.5% - 49.53% month-on-month [7]. 1.2 DCE Palm Oil - As of the close on November 14, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8644 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from last week. The price fluctuated slightly lower, mainly affected by the decline in the import cost of domestic palm oil and the slight increase in domestic palm oil inventory, but the increase in the prices of relevant domestic competing vegetable oils limited the decline [12]. - This week, the foreign quotation decreased, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit narrowed, and the inversion range of the futures soybean-palm oil price spread continued to repair [12]. 2. Producing Area Weather 2.1 Malaysia Producing Area Weather - From November 8 - 14, except for parts of southern Peninsular Malaysia, eastern Sarawak, and southwestern Sabah where precipitation was 15 - 25mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was generally at or below the historical normal level by 15 - 75mm [14]. - From November 15 - 21, except for a small part of northeastern Peninsular Malaysia and northern Sabah where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [16]. 2.2 Indonesia Producing Area Weather - From November 8 - 14, except for parts of northern and southern Sumatra where precipitation was 15 - 100mm higher than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was at or below the historical normal level by 15 - 50mm. In Kalimantan, except for a small part of western and northern areas where precipitation was 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas was generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [19]. - From November 15 - 21, except for a small part of central and western Sumatra where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm lower than the historical normal level, precipitation in the rest of the areas is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level by 15 - 100mm [21]. 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 MPOB October Report - Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in October increased by 4.44% month-on-month to 2464000 tons, higher than the same period last year and the 5-year average [23]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% month-on-month to 2044000 tons, exports increased by 18.58% month-on-month to 1693000 tons, and imports decreased by 53.73% month-on-month to 36000 tons [23]. 3.2 Malaysia Palm Oil November Forecast - **Export Forecast**: AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 were 448328 tons, a 9.5% decrease from the same period last month; ITS data showed that exports were 459320 tons, a 12.28% decrease; SGS data showed that exports were expected to be 190533 tons, a 49.53% decrease [30]. - **Production Forecast**: SPPOMA data showed that from November 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 4.14% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, and production decreased by 2.16% month-on-month [34]. 3.3 Other Important News - India's palm oil imports in October were 602381 tons, lower than 833017 tons in September. In the 2024/25 fiscal year, palm oil imports were 7.58 million tons, lower than 9.01 million tons in the same period last year. The proportion of palm oil in India's vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year dropped below 50% for the first time [36]. - Indonesia may reduce palm oil exports by 11% - 12% in 2026 due to the implementation of a biodiesel blend fuel (B50) containing 50% palm oil. Indonesia plans to launch the B50 blend fuel in the second half of next year [36]. - Indonesia will start the B50 biodiesel road test in early December, and the government is considering whether to implement the B50 mandatory standard only in specific fields. The government plans to implement the B50 blending standard in the second half of next year, an increase from this year's 40% blending ratio [38]. - Indonesia's palm oil production from January - September this year was more than 43 million tons, a 11% year-on-year increase; exports were about 25 million tons, a 13.4% year-on-year increase [38]. - As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, and the Indonesian government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025 [38]. - CIMB Securities expects that due to a 10% month-on-month decrease in exports, Malaysia's palm oil inventory will increase by 4.0% month-on-month to 2.57 million tons in November; production is expected to decrease by 8.0% month-on-month to 1.88 million tons after peaking in October [38]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - This week, the inversion range of the palm oil futures import profit narrowed [39]. 4.2 Palm Oil Transactions - This week, palm oil transactions decreased. As of the week of November 14, the total weekly palm oil transactions (spot transactions + basis transactions) were 3403 tons, a decrease of 2597 tons from last week, a decline of 43% [42]. 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - Palm oil inventory increased. As of November 7, 2025 (week 45), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 597300 tons, a 0.76% increase from last week and a 10.86% increase from 538800 tons in the same period last year [44][45]. 5. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Price Spreads 5.1 Basis, Month Spread, and Variety Spread - **Palm Oil Basis and Month Spread**: Relevant data charts of palm oil basis and month spread in different regions are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [48][51][52]. - **Variety Spread and POGO Spread**: Relevant data charts of international and domestic soybean-palm oil, rapeseed-palm oil, sunflower-palm oil price spreads, and POGO spreads are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [54][56][57]. 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Positions - Relevant data charts of DCE palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and 01 contract positions are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [59]. 5.3 FOB Quotes - Relevant data charts of Malaysia and Indonesia's 24-degree palm oil FOB quotes are provided, but specific numerical analysis is not given in the text [62]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to take a wait - and - see approach. Palm oil should be treated as range - bound with a downward bias, soybean oil's basis is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and rapeseed oil's basis is supported by the near - term tight supply situation [5] Report's Core View - Supply: Palm oil is bearish in the near - term, soybean oil is neutral, and rapeseed oil is bearish overall but bullish in the near - term. Reasons include high palm oil inventories in Malaysia, expected increase in China's palm oil imports in Q4, limited positive impact from the USDA report, and short - term raw material shortages for rapeseed oil [5] - Demand: A wait - and - see approach is recommended. Factors include the active promotion of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the undetermined US biodiesel RVO, stable domestic consumption and export support for soybean oil, and the upcoming peak consumption season for rapeseed oil in winter [5] - Inventory: A wait - and - see approach is advised. China's total oil inventory remains high, rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking due to raw material shortages, palm oil has inventory replenishment expectations, and the destination of imported US soybeans for soybean oil needs attention [5] - Macro and Policy: Bearish. The USDA report's export data was lower than expected, Indonesia's B50 implementation has uncertainties, the US biodiesel RVO is still uncertain, and Canada plans to increase biodiesel production capacity [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Impact Factors: Analyzes supply, demand, inventory, and macro - policy factors, and provides corresponding investment views and trading strategies [5] - Trading Strategies: Suggests shorting the palm oil 01 contract, buying call options for protection, and conducting an arbitrage strategy of going long on Y01 and shorting P01 [5] PART TWO: Market Review - Presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, and OI1 - 5 [7][11][12] PART THREE: Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: Shows precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia [21][23][25] - Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Displays data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, exports, and ending inventory [34][39] - Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Presents data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, exports, and ending inventory [40][45] - India's Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Difference: Shows India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [46][50] - China's Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Displays data on China's palm oil imports, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and profit [52][54][56] - Weather and US Soybean Production: Shows the temperature and precipitation distribution in soybean - producing areas in the US, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate and harvest progress [63][66][72] - US and Brazil Export Situation: Presents data on US soybean exports and Brazil's soybean exports [76][80] - China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation: Displays data on China's soybean arrivals, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory [90] - Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation: Shows precipitation and temperature forecasts in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, as well as Canada's soil moisture [91][100] - Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival: Presents data on rapeseed exports from producing areas and China's rapeseed arrivals [102][104] - China's Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation: Displays data on China's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory [109][113]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The technology - growth sector remains the market's main line, and the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. - In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction [9]. - For various metals and commodities, the strategies vary according to supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For example, for copper, the supply is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for prices; for aluminum, supply disruptions and improved export expectations may push prices higher [13][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The chairman of the CSRC visited French and Brazilian financial regulatory authorities; in October, M2, M1, and M0 had different year - on - year growth rates; the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing scale stock was 8.5%; SMIC's Q3 net profit increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors have been rotating rapidly. The technology - growth sector is still the main line, and the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes; in October, financial data such as M2, M1, and M0 had different performances; the US failed to release the October CPI report; the central bank conducted 1900 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures prices rose; COMEX gold and silver prices were reported; the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported; Fed officials' overall stance was hawkish, but the monetary policy was expected to be further relaxed; after the retirement of the Atlanta Fed chairman, the Fed may show a "dovish tendency" [8][9]. - **Strategy**: In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are provided [9]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The domestic equity market strengthened, and the US October CPI data was not released as scheduled. Copper prices rose first and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and other inventory data changed [11]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference is under pressure, but the supply of refined copper is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating range for Shanghai copper futures is provided [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose first and then fell, remaining at a relatively high level. LME aluminum inventory increased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Supply concerns caused by overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts, low domestic inventory, and expected easing of global trade tensions and Fed monetary policy may push aluminum prices higher. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME aluminum futures are provided [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc 3S also rose. Domestic and LME zinc inventory data and other market indicators were reported [16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, zinc smelting profit was under pressure, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation slowed down. Shanghai zinc is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly, and LME lead 3S rose. Domestic and LME lead inventory data and other market indicators were reported [17]. - **Strategy**: The profit of primary and secondary lead smelting is good, but raw material shortages limit lead ingot output. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded, and LME lead has been continuously destocking. Shanghai lead is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Spot market premiums were stable, and nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices accelerated their decline [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. If nickel prices fall enough or risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME nickel futures are provided [18]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin futures prices rose. The supply of tin was affected by the slow resumption of production in Myanmar, and the demand in emerging fields provided support [19][20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin futures are provided [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also rose. Domestic production increased slightly, and inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: The rise of lithium - battery stocks on Thursday had a strong impact on the futures market sentiment. The supply growth rate slowed down this week, and the inventory days continued to hit a new low. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December and the change in the equity market atmosphere. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is provided [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the unilateral trading volume decreased. The basis, overseas prices, and futures inventory data were reported [24]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are gradually recovering after the rainy season, and the alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is provided [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory decreased, and the supply was still under pressure [26]. - **Strategy**: The stainless - steel market continues to show a weak and oscillating trend, mainly affected by over - supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [26]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, and the weighted contract position decreased. The inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while the demand is relatively average. The short - term price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures had different changes, and the spot prices were stable. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [30]. - **Strategy**: The overall sentiment in the commodity market warmed up slightly yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory risk of hot - rolled coil still exists. In the short term, prices are expected to continue the weak and oscillating trend, but demand may improve in the future [31]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. The Ximangduo iron ore project was officially put into operation, but the output increase is expected to be limited this year [32]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore decreased, and the demand increased marginally. The high inventory still suppresses prices. In the short term, ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillating range [33]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass futures price rose, and the inventory increased slightly. The soda - ash futures price rose, and the inventory decreased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy**: The glass market has limited positive factors, and prices are expected to decline. The soda - ash industry has high supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [35][37]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese - silicon futures price fell slightly, and the ferrosilicon futures price rose slightly. The prices are in an oscillating range [38]. - **Strategy**: In November, the pricing of the black sector has returned to fundamentals. The iron - water output has continued to decline, and steel demand is weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on rebounds. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is relatively low [39][40][41]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon futures price fell, and the polysilicon futures price rose. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease [42][44]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to the authenticity of relevant news and risk control [43][46]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The expiration of November warehouse receipts led to positive market expectations. The start - up rate of tire factories was neutral, and inventory data were reported [48][49]. - **Strategy**: Currently, a neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and quick entry and exit. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [51]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures price fell, and the prices of related refined - oil futures also fell. Singapore's oil - product inventory data were reported [52]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price was stable, and the basis and spread data were reported [54]. - **Strategy**: High port inventory continues to suppress prices. The supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price had different changes, and the basis and spread data were reported [55]. - **Strategy**: The market is sensitive to positive news. The domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. The price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [56]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene had different changes, and the supply - demand and inventory data were reported [57]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the port inventory is being destocked. The price of styrene may stop falling periodically [58]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price rose, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [59]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [60]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [61]. - **Strategy**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of PTA rising driven by PXN in the medium term [64]. 3.4.9 Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [65][66]. - **Strategy**: The PX load remains high, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly in November. It is expected to mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [67]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [68]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The supply is limited, and the demand may improve seasonally [69]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [70]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand has rebounded seasonally. The price is expected to be supported after the supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [71][72]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall, and the demand was weak, but farmers' resistance to low - price sales was increasing [74]. - **Strategy**: In the future, the supply of live pigs is expected to be excessive, and the main strategy is to short on rallies. Currently, an inverse spread strategy is recommended, followed by shorting after rallies [75]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline, and the supply was sufficient while the demand was average [76]. - **Strategy**: The inventory of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and short on rallies in the medium term [77]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price rose slightly, and the domestic soybean inventory was at a high level. The soybean meal sales and pick - up were good [78]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybean meal is expected to oscillate. In the short term, soybean meal prices may follow the import cost, and in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [80]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The import of Indian palm oil and other oils decreased. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend [81]. - **Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to oscillate. If there are signals of production decline, a long - position strategy can be adopted [82]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded, and the spot price was stable. The global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease [83][85]. - **Strategy**: The import control of syrup and premixed powder has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [86]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate, and the spot price fell. The downstream demand was weak, and the开机率 of spinning mills decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate due to weak demand and high supply [88].

Report Information - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Date: November 11, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views Palm Oil - **International Market**: After oscillating around 4,100 ringgit, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures started a rebound following the release of the MPOB supply - demand report. It is expected to rise to the 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit range. However, due to slow exports and high production in November, it may face downward pressure at this range and seek support at 4,000 ringgit. With future declines in production and inventory, it may rebound [3]. - **Domestic Market**: Dalian palm oil futures are in a rebound trend. Driven by the Malaysian palm oil, it may reach the annual resistance line around 8,900 yuan, with strong resistance at 8,950 - 9,000 yuan. After filling the gap around 8,950 yuan, it may face downward pressure and potentially test the 8,500 - yuan support [3]. Soybean Oil - The Dalian soybean oil futures are rising, following the BMD palm oil and supported by the decrease in domestic oil inventory. The BMD palm oil had a nearly 12% decline in about a month and has a technical rebound demand. Last weekend, the factory soybean oil inventory decreased by over 90,000 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils decreased by over 150,000 tons. However, the news of Cofco's 3 - million - ton soybean rotation storage by Sinograin restricts its increase. In the short term, it may still rise slightly, with resistance at 8,300 - 8,330 yuan for the January contract. If CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and BMD palm oil rise, it may break through; otherwise, it will enter a volatile adjustment [4]. Soybean Meal - The Dalian soybean meal 01 contract is oscillating. Cost support and poor crushing margins underpin the price, while weak spot prices limit the upside. With the news of Sinograin's 3 - million - ton soybean rotation storage to Cofco, the short - term support range for the main contract may be 3,000 - 3,020 yuan. Spot prices are mostly stable, and the inventory has decreased to 969,000 tons as of the end of the 45th week, a 19.74% week - on - week decrease. However, the near - term basis remains weak [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts increased by 0.92%, 0.71%, and 0.44% respectively. The BMD palm oil main contract rose 1.19% to 4,161 ringgit/ton. The Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil price increased by 140 yuan to 8,740 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 50 yuan to - 90 yuan/ton [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts had a - 0.29%, 0.25%, and 0.31% change respectively. The CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 1.81% to 50.53 cents/pound. The Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot price increased by 50 yuan to 8,400 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 40 yuan to 162 yuan/ton [11]. - **Oil Spreads**: Various oil month - to - month and variety - to - variety spreads are provided, such as the P 1 - 5 spread at - 102 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the Y - P 01 spread at - 462 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [5]. Oilseed Futures Price - **Futures Price**: The closing prices and changes of bean meal 01, 05, 09, and rapeseed meal 01, 05, 09 contracts are presented. For example, the bean meal 01 contract closed at 3,054 yuan, down 9 yuan or - 0.29% [16]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contracts of bean meal and rapeseed meal are given, like the M01 - 05 spread at 218 yuan, down 16 yuan; the RM01 - 05 spread at 79 yuan, down 20 yuan [17]. Oil and Oilseed Pressing Profit - **International Soybean**: The international soybean pressing profit, including the US Gulf CNF and Brazilian CNF, is shown. The profit has fluctuated over time, with values ranging from - 500 to 1,000 yuan/ton [30]. - **Imported Rapeseed**: The pressing profit of imported Canadian rapeseed also shows fluctuations, with values from - 1,000 to 1,000 yuan/ton [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term short - selling recommendation for the oil and fat industry [5] 2. Core View of the Report - With the expectation of a looser supply of oils and fats both at the production areas and in the domestic market, the fundamental situation of the oil and fat market is bearish. Attention should be paid to whether there are differences between the expected data in this week's two reports [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil and soybean oil are neutral to bearish, and rapeseed oil is bearish. Malaysian palm oil production areas have high inventories, and the expected imports to China in the fourth quarter are increasing. China is expected to import 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, but the amount for commercial crushing is uncertain. There are expectations of peace talks between China and Canada, and there are good harvests in Canada, Australia and other production areas this year [5] - **Demand**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Indonesian biodiesel policy is being actively promoted, and B40 provides support, but the implementation of B50 is far away and difficult to drive. Due to the US government shutdown, the biodiesel RVO originally scheduled to be finalized on October 31 has not been determined. The domestic peak season is lackluster, and the domestic demand for oils and fats in the fourth quarter is difficult to drive, with an expected increase in soybean oil exports [5] - **Inventory**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The total domestic oil and fat inventory is still at a high level. Rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking due to raw material shortages. Palm oil has the expectation of replenishing inventory due to a large number of purchases by traders. For soybean oil, attention should be paid to the destination of imported US soybeans (state reserve/commercial crushing) [5] - **Macro and Policy**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Sino - US trade agreement stipulates that China will repurchase US soybeans, which has a phased impact on CBOT soybeans and Brazilian premiums. Indonesia officially announced that B50 is in the road test and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year, but some analysts believe there are still obstacles. Some of the US biodiesel exemption petitions have been approved, and there is still uncertainty about RVO. There are expectations of reconciliation in Sino - Canadian trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5] - **Investment View**: Short - term short - selling. In the context of the expected looser supply of oils and fats at the production areas and in the domestic market, the oil and fat fundamentals are bearish. Attention should be paid to whether there are differences between the expected data in this week's two reports [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short palm oil and rapeseed oil; Arbitrage: Long Y01 and short P01; Options: Buy call options for protection. Risk concerns include MPOB and USDA reports, unexpected production cuts, and policy disturbances [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][11][14] 3.3 Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It shows the precipitation and temperature anomaly forecasts in Southeast Asia in the past and future periods [21][23][25] - **Indonesian and Malaysian Monthly Supply - Demand**: It includes the production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia from 2021 to 2025 [33][38][39] - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Differences**: It shows the import quantities of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price differences between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [45][49] - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: It includes the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of domestic palm oil from 2021 to 2025 [51][53][55] - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It shows the temperature and precipitation distributions in the soybean - producing areas of Argentina and Brazil in the next 15 days, as well as the good - to - excellent rate and harvesting progress of US soybeans [62][65][71] - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: It includes the cumulative export sales volume, cumulative export volume, and monthly export volume of US and Brazilian soybeans, as well as the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2026 [75][79] - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: It shows the weekly arrival volume of Chinese soybeans, the weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushers, the daily trading volume of domestic soybean oil, and the weekly soybean oil inventory of Chinese crushers from 2021 to 2025 [89] - **Rapeseed Situation**: It includes the precipitation and temperature forecasts in the rapeseed - producing areas of Canada and Europe in the next 15 days, the soil moisture in Canada, the FOB prices of rapeseed in Ukraine, Australia, and Canada, the weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed oil, the import hedging profit of Canadian rapeseed, the expected arrival volume of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil, the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, the weekly production volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and the weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the domestic market from 2021 to 2026 [90][99][101]

Report Date - The report is dated November 5, 2025 [1] Core Views Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4,100 ringgit. Affected by potential negative factors such as MPOA production growth and a significant drop in exports in the first five days of November, there is pressure for the futures to weaken further to 4,000 ringgit, with a possibility of briefly falling below this level. After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report, the futures are expected to gradually stop falling, stabilize, and then start a slow upward trend. The overall view is near - term weakness and long - term strength, and it is advisable to closely monitor whether it can effectively hold above 4,000 ringgit [3] - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a weak oscillating pattern. Dragged down by the weakening trend of Malaysian palm oil and the continuous decline in domestic port inventories, there is pressure to repeatedly test the 8,500 - yuan support level in the short term. After stabilizing through oscillations around 8,500 yuan, with the boost of the rebound of Malaysian palm oil, Dalian palm oil futures also have the opportunity to follow the upward trend. The overall view is near - term weakness and long - term strength, and it is advisable to closely monitor whether it can effectively hold above 8,500 yuan [3] Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil fundamentals have not changed significantly, with sufficient supply and limited demand. Internationally, CBOT soybeans have stopped rising and are adjusting, CBOT soybean oil is oscillating narrowly, and BMD palm oil is also showing signs of stopping the decline. Affected by factors such as limited US soybean exports, uncertainty about the industrial use of US soybean oil, and the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventories, all three varieties may decline, which will impact the domestic oil market. Although the government has lowered the import tariff on US soybeans today, the market feedback indicates that US soybeans still do not have a price advantage, so it has little impact on the current trend of Dalian soybean oil. In the short term, Dalian soybean oil will maintain a narrow - range oscillating adjustment pattern. The January contract will oscillate narrowly between 8,050 yuan (lower daily - line track) and 8,200 yuan (middle - line track), and there is a possibility of falling to 8,000 yuan or even lower as the Bollinger Bands move downward [4] Bean Meal - The mill's fixed - price for bean meal first fell and then rose with the market. With the clarity of the US soybean import tariff, the mills are holding up prices slightly due to cost support. Some traders raised their quotes in the afternoon. Feed enterprises have relatively sufficient contracts, having purchased contracts for November - January earlier. In addition, the cost - effectiveness of bean meal remains obvious, so the overall trading rhythm is stable. Under the restraint of high - priced US soybeans, the pace of some forward purchases is slow, which may lead to a tight supply situation from January to February 2026. Therefore, some traders are entering the market to build some bottom positions, and the price is prone to rise and difficult to fall [14] Price Information Oil Futures Price Spreads | Spread | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | - 80 | - 22 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 90 | - 46 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 10 | 68 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 170 | - 20 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 88 | 8 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 258 | 12 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 363 | - 23 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 7 | 11 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 370 | 12 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 508 | 46 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 758 | 44 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 756 | - 10 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.6892 | 0.34% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.8169 | 0.62% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.6746 | 0.61% | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.7817 | - 0.53% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.8183 | 0.04% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.6792 | - 0.01% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8590 | - 0.3% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8696 | 0% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8616 | 0.12% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | ringgit/ton | 4148 | 0.12% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | 8520 | 20 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | yuan/ton | - 116 | - 2 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 449.57 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean Oil - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | - 2.81 | - 21.39 | [7] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8138 | 1.92% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7950 | 0.21% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7882 | 0.1% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | cents/pound | 49.93 | 2.69% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8320 | 50 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 212 | 52 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 44.654 | - 10.122 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 30 | 100 | [11] Oilseed Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 3073 | 58 | 1.92% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2824 | 6 | 0.21% | | Bean Meal 09 | 2938 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2537 | 40 | 1.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2405 | 27 | 1.14% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2478 | 12 | 0.49% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1120.25 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.133 | 0.006 | 0.08% | [14] Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 197 | 0 | RM01 - 05 | 119 | 8 | | M05 - 09 | - 117 | 3 | RM05 - 09 | - 88 | 2 | | M09 - 01 | - 80 | - 3 | RM09 - 01 | - 31 | - 10 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3040 | 0 | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | 25 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2580 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 83 | - 6 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 460 | 0 | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 518 | - 17 | [15][18]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Xu Liang [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a volatile trend. Due to concerns about increased inventory and slower exports, there is short - term pressure to weaken and seek support at 4,000 ringgit. After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report next week, if it can effectively stand above 4,000 ringgit, an upward trend may follow. A near - term weak and long - term strong view is maintained, and the level of 4,000 ringgit should be closely monitored [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward - adjusted trend after opening higher. Affected by the decline of Malaysian palm oil, there is pressure to continue falling. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stand above 8,500 yuan. As Malaysian palm oil stabilizes at around 4,000 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may also stabilize and rise. A near - term weak and long - term strong view is maintained, and changes in Malaysian palm oil fundamentals and whether Dalian palm oil can stand above 8,500 yuan should be closely monitored [3]. Soybean Oil - Dalian soybean oil futures are in a narrow - range volatile trend. CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and BMD palm oil are all in a volatile adjustment state, affecting the domestic oil market. Domestically, soybean oil supply is sufficient in most areas, but some areas have soybean meal overstock, leading to a decrease in the overall factory operating rate. Recently, due to low prices, some traders replenished stocks, and yesterday's trading volume increased. There are both bullish and bearish factors. The January contract is oscillating below the daily mid - track of 8,200 yuan. If CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and BMD palm oil continue to fall, Dalian soybean oil will be dragged down; otherwise, there is a possibility of an upward trend after the oscillation [4]. Oilseeds (Soybean Meal) - Dalian soybean meal 01 contract declined due to the sharp drop in US soybeans yesterday and weak spot prices. However, the Brazilian premium is continuously strengthening, and the crushing profit has not significantly improved under the weak oil - meal background. The main contract of Dalian soybean meal may still test the resistance at 3,080 - 3,100 yuan in the short term. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton following the futures price. The near - month basis is weakly stable, with light overall trading volume. Feed mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and traders operate on a rolling basis. If China successfully purchases 12 million tons of US soybeans, the supply will be loose in the first quarter of next year, and the basis will be under continuous pressure with limited upward space. In the short term, the spot price will mainly fluctuate within the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan [17]. Group 4: Price and Spread Information Oil Spreads | Spread | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | - 66 | 40 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 90 | 10 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 24 | - 50 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 544 | - 92 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 792 | - 46 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 790 | - 56 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 182 | - 6 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 88 | 20 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 270 | - 14 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.6688 | 0.78% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.832 | 0.6% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.6932 | 0.39% | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 391 | 46 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 24 | 31 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 415 | - 77 | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.7521 | 1.19% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.7968 | 0.76% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.6787 | 0.52% | [5] Palm Oil Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8,660 | - 0.82% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8,730 | - 0.77% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8,640 | - 0.78% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | ringgit/ton | 4,110 | - 0.94% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | 8,520 | - 50 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | yuan/ton | - 46 | 50 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 416.649 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | 46.08 | 5.95 | [8] Soybean Oil Prices | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8,184 | - 0.33% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7,960 | - 0.6% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7,878 | - 0.34% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | cents/pound | 49.28 | - 0.87% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8,290 | 0 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 212 | 52 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 45.172 | - 7.6468 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 130 | - 40 | [14] Oilseed Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3,058 | - 10 | - 0.33% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2,810 | - 17 | - 0.6% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2,930 | - 10 | - 0.34% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,539 | - 10 | - 0.39% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,416 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,487 | 0 | 0% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1,108 | - 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1226 | - 0.0078 | - 0.11% | [17] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 241 | - 8 | RM01 - 05 | 133 | 1 | | M05 - 09 | - 113 | 1 | RM05 - 09 | - 71 | 2 | | M09 - 01 | - 128 | 7 | RM09 - 01 | - 62 | - 3 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3,040 | - 20 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 25 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2,580 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 31 | - 12 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 460 | 0 | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 519 | - 17 | [18][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Malaysia's October 2025 crude palm oil production increased 12.31% month - on - month to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight - year high. The 2025/26 annual production is estimated at 19.2 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous forecast. The industry is entering a low - production cycle until early 2026 [1]. - Indonesia's 2025/26 annual palm oil production is expected to be 51 million tons, 4% higher than the previous forecast but lower than last year. The 2024/25 annual production was revised up to 53 million tons. However, due to structural challenges, production growth is expected to be negative [1]. - Short - term drought is expected to have a neutral impact on palm tree growth in both Malaysia and Indonesia, but concerns about drought in northern Sumatra may persist [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Malaysia's October 2025 crude palm oil production: 2.07 million tons, up 12.31% month - on - month. Malay Peninsula production increased 6.57%, Sabah 19.83%, and Sarawak 21.25%. The 2025/26 annual production forecast is 19.2 million tons (range: 18.7 - 19.7 million tons). The first 9 months of this year saw a 0.3% year - on - year increase, due to slow replanting and aging palm trees [1]. - Indonesia's 2025/26 annual palm oil production forecast is 51 million tons (range: 46 - 56 million tons), 4% higher than the previous forecast but lower than last year. The 2024/25 annual production was revised up to 53 million tons. The first 8 months of this year had a 13.1% year - on - year increase [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from October 30, 2025, to November 5, 2025, are presented in a table [4]. Other Information - Main producer precipitation, import soybean crushing profit, and grease import profit are mentioned but no detailed data provided [3]. - Grease basis, grease and oilseed price spread, and protein meal basis are mentioned but no detailed data provided [7][10][13]

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed and oil futures market showed mixed results on November 5, with rapeseed meal futures rising over 1% [1] - As of the latest data, rapeseed meal futures increased by 1.60% to 2537.00 CNY/ton, while rapeseed oil futures decreased by 0.52% to 9427.00 CNY/ton [1] - Soybean meal futures rose by 0.40% to 3040.00 CNY/ton, and soybean oil futures increased by 0.45% to 3759.00 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The opening prices for various oilseed futures on November 5 included soybean oil at 8094.00 CNY, palm oil at 8590.00 CNY, and rapeseed oil at 9434.00 CNY [2] - The closing prices for these contracts were soybean oil at 8142.00 CNY, palm oil at 8652.00 CNY, and rapeseed oil at 9476.00 CNY [2] - The trading volume for rapeseed meal futures was stable at 2497.00 CNY, while soybean meal futures opened at 3010.00 CNY and closed at 3028.00 CNY [2] Group 3 - As of November 4, the number of rapeseed oil futures warehouse receipts was 9440, a decrease of 300 from the previous trading day [3] - The warehouse receipts for peanut futures remained unchanged at 0, while rapeseed meal futures held steady at 2955 [3] - The data indicated a phenomenon of "backwardation" for several contracts, where spot prices exceeded futures prices for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, palm oil, and soybean products [3] Group 4 - The spot price for rapeseed oil was 9773.33 CNY, with a basis of 297 CNY, resulting in a basis rate of 3.04% [4] - The spot price for rapeseed meal was 2551.67 CNY, with a basis of 54 CNY, leading to a basis rate of 2.12% [4] - Other commodities such as palm oil and soybean meal also showed positive basis values, indicating a favorable market condition for these products [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the futures market in supporting the real economy and enhancing risk management for various industries, particularly in the context of increasing price volatility in global markets [1][2]. Group 1: Role of Futures Market - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has listed 27 futures products and 20 options, covering key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and chemicals, forming a market-based risk management chain [1]. - The collaboration between Dahuacaifang and ZCE aims to explore the practical applications of the futures market in supporting the construction of a strong manufacturing and agricultural nation [1]. Group 2: Risk Management in Industries - In the context of rising commodity price fluctuations, futures tools are becoming essential for stabilizing operations across various industries, transitioning from single hedging to multi-dimensional tools [2]. - Companies like COFCO and Dongguan Fuzhiyuan are utilizing futures tools to effectively manage price volatility risks, shifting from traditional pricing to basis trading as a mainstream practice [3][5]. Group 3: Case Studies of Successful Implementation - Dongguan Fuzhiyuan has adopted a systematic hedging approach since 2004, forming a risk-sharing mechanism with upstream and downstream enterprises [5]. - Guangzhou Yelong International Trade Company has developed four trading models, including basis trading and futures-spot combinations, to enhance profitability and manage risks [7][8]. Group 4: Impact on Chemical Industry - The launch of futures for caustic soda at ZCE provides chemical enterprises with diverse risk management strategies, addressing the increasing price volatility in the sector [11][13]. - Companies like Dongbo Chemical have established a futures-spot risk management system, leading to over 20% growth in sales and 30% increase in exports in recent years [13]. Group 5: Future Directions - The chemical industry is shifting from scale competition to a comprehensive competition model that includes energy efficiency and carbon management, with futures tools playing a crucial role in this transition [13][14]. - Companies are encouraged to promote derivative business models and enhance risk management capabilities across the industry [14].