Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a work plan by seven government departments to stabilize and optimize the petrochemical industry in China from 2025 to 2026, focusing on innovation, investment, market demand, development carriers, and international cooperation [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Innovation - The petrochemical industry is expected to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026, with improved economic benefits and enhanced technological innovation capabilities [1]. - Emphasis is placed on supporting key products such as electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins, as well as upgrading bulk products like coatings [1]. Group 2: Investment and Capacity Control - The plan includes strict control over new refining capacity and a scientific approach to the release of new capacities for ethylene and paraxylene, aiming to prevent overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol industry [1]. - There will be a push for the renovation and upgrading of outdated facilities, alongside the implementation of AI in the petrochemical sector [1]. Group 3: Market Demand Expansion - The strategy aims to tap into consumption potential in traditional sectors like construction and automotive, while also fostering new applications in emerging fields such as renewable energy and low-altitude economy [2]. - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is highlighted as a key focus area [2]. Group 4: Development Carriers and Competitiveness - The plan includes evaluating the competitiveness and intelligence levels of chemical parks, guiding them to improve and focus on strengthening industrial chains [2]. - The goal is to cultivate advanced manufacturing clusters and characteristic industries among small and medium enterprises [2]. Group 5: Open Cooperation and International Standards - The work plan emphasizes the importance of stabilizing foreign trade policies and advancing overseas resource development through joint ventures [2]. - There is a focus on enhancing cooperation in fields such as fine chemicals, green low-carbon technologies, and artificial intelligence, along with improving standards and product certification systems to align with international practices [2].

风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 工信部等7部门印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》。其中提到，2025-2026年，石 化化工行业增加值年均增长5%以上。 严控新增炼油产能，合理确定乙烯、对二甲苯新增产能规模和投 放节奏，防范煤制甲醇行业产能过剩风险。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Petrochemical Industry Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry in China is facing challenges such as refining capacity nearing its limit and an oversupply of ethylene, necessitating adjustments in supply through anti-involution policies for high-quality development [1][2][4] - The overall profitability of the chemical industry is weak, with only a few resource-advantaged products performing well [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Regulatory Changes**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) will implement policies to stabilize growth in response to industry demand changes, particularly focusing on refining and ethylene sectors [2][4] - **Capacity Control**: New refining projects will require equivalent replacements, and approvals for small coal-to-methanol projects will become more stringent [1][4][7] - **Old Facility Elimination**: Small, outdated refining and ethylene facilities, especially those over 20 years old, will face elimination, with approximately 60 million tons of capacity targeted for adjustment [1][12][15] - **Investment Trends**: Investment in propane dehydrogenation units is decreasing due to poor profitability, while ethylene capacity is regulated to maintain reasonable industry profitability [5][6] Market Dynamics - **Global Market Opportunities**: As European and Korean petrochemical industries face supply tightness and shutdowns, China is positioned to fill market gaps through modern, large-scale production facilities [2][14][17] - **Export Potential**: China can leverage its cost advantages to export to Europe and Southeast Asia, especially as global ethylene markets are expected to rebalance with increasing demand [2][22] Challenges and Future Outlook - **Approval Challenges**: New projects must incorporate advanced materials technology to gain approval, complicating the project initiation process for many companies [8][9] - **Environmental Standards**: The government is emphasizing energy efficiency and environmental standards, which will impact the approval of new projects and the operation of existing facilities [10][13] - **Employment Impact**: The consolidation of small, inefficient facilities may lead to job losses, but the government plans to mitigate this through retraining and support measures [26][28] Strategic Directions - **Industry Consolidation**: The government aims to increase industry concentration by encouraging the integration of smaller firms into larger, more efficient operations [29][33] - **Focus on High-Quality Development**: The anti-involution policy seeks to reduce ineffective competition and promote larger, more capable enterprises to enhance international competitiveness [33][36] Conclusion - The petrochemical industry in China is undergoing significant structural changes driven by regulatory reforms, market dynamics, and a focus on sustainability. The future will likely see a consolidation of capacity, increased export opportunities, and a shift towards high-quality, environmentally friendly production practices.

印度官员再次向特朗普政府表明，若要该国炼油商大幅削减俄罗斯石油进口，美方需允许其从受制裁的 伊朗和委内瑞拉购买原油。谈判知情人士透露，本周访美的印度代表团在与美方官员会谈时重申了这一 要求。知情人士补充称，印度代表强调同时切断印度炼油商从俄伊委三大产油国的供应可能导致全球油 价飙升。印度于2019年停止购买伊朗石油，今年随着美国加紧制裁，该国最大私营炼油商信实工业也停 止采购委内瑞拉原油。炼油商可转而增加中东原油采购，但这将推高成本并扩大总体进口开支。 ...

扎维耶炼油公司对其设施附近冲突表示"深切关注"，称"生命和重要基础设施面临严重威胁"。该公司呼 吁立即停火，强调任何针对炼油厂的袭击"都将直接破坏利比亚人民的资源和国家财富"。 冲突发生后，扎维耶教育局宣布地区内所有学校停课。当地政府还敦促居民待在室内，尽量避免外出。 自卡扎菲政权2011年被武力推翻后，利比亚陷入动荡。现阶段，得到联合国承认的民族统一政府与支持 它的武装力量控制利西部一些地区，国民代表大会则与"国民军"结盟，控制东部和南部大部分地区，双 方割据对峙。 （文章来源：新华社） 的黎波里消息：据利比亚媒体24日报道，在距离该国首都的黎波里以西约60公里的扎维耶地区，利比亚 民族统一政府内政部下属一安全部门当天同当地武装组织爆发激烈冲突。 据利比亚通讯社报道，冲突的起因是安全部门逮捕了当地武装组织卡布塔特几名成员。 据当地消息人士说，冲突迅速蔓延到该市居民区和炼油厂周围。社交媒体上流传的视频显示，冲突中使 用了中型和重型武器。当地媒体称，已有一名石油设施保安被迫击炮弹击中身亡。冲突区域的主要道路 上部署了重型军事增援部队。 ...

今年，英国的炼油工业版图正经历数十年来最剧烈的收缩。4月29日，苏格兰唯一炼油厂格兰杰莫斯在 运营逾百年后停产，这座由Petroineos运营的14.5万桶/日炼厂长期被指缺乏竞争力而无法盈利。数周后 行业再遭重击，6月林肯郡产能11万桶/日的林赛炼油厂破产清算，使英国仅剩4座主要炼厂。笔者认 为，如果英国炼油行业成本和转型问题不能得到解决，英国炼油时代有终结的可能。 不过，英国能源转型慢于预期的现实又似乎给了英国炼厂一定的转机。电动车成本高企、电池材料受地 缘政治波动影响、英国电价高度不稳定，叠加生活成本危机，这些因素可能导致消费者保留现有柴油车 的时间远超政策制定者预期。除非需求比预期更快萎缩，否则英国柴油缺口可能持续存在。如是，则英 国炼油业还有一定的生存空间。而如果英国真的强行推动汽车电气化，则英国炼厂的最后关停并非不可 能发生的事情。 从技术上看，英国炼厂以加工轻质低硫原油为主，设计侧重汽油生产。历史上，英国汽油净出口常年为 正，大量输往北美及荷兰和比利时地区。但随着美国和中东成品油产业发展，加之英国汽车向柴油车型 转型，导致柴油持续短缺，英国只能以进口填补缺口：2024年英国62.4万桶/日清洁燃 ...

不过，英国能源转型慢于预期的现实又似乎给了英国炼厂一定的转机。电动车成本高企、电池材料受地 缘政治波动影响、英国电价高度不稳定，叠加生活成本危机，这些因素可能导致消费者保留现有柴油车 的时间远超政策制定者预期。除非需求比预期更快萎缩，否则英国柴油缺口可能持续存在。如是，则英 国炼油业还有一定的生存空间。而如果英国真的强行推动汽车电气化，则英国炼厂的最后关停并非不可 能发生的事情。 从技术上看，英国炼厂以加工轻质低硫原油为主，设计侧重汽油生产。历史上，英国汽油净出口常年为 正，大量输往北美及荷兰和比利时地区。但随着美国和中东成品油产业发展，加之英国汽车向柴油车型 转型，导致柴油持续短缺，英国只能以进口填补缺口：2024年英国62.4万桶/日清洁燃料进口中，柴油 26.5万桶/日，主要来自美国、沙特、荷兰和比利时，这导致英国本土炼油厂更加无利可图。此外，英 国净零战略计划2030年前逐步淘汰新汽柴油车销售，这进一步加剧了英国本土炼厂的压力。当本土炼油 成本无法与海外竞争时，英国炼油业就会有消失的可能。 今年，英国的炼油工业版图正经历数十年来最剧烈的收缩。4月29日，苏格兰唯一炼油厂格兰杰莫斯在 运营逾百年后停产， ...

Group 1 - Ukrainian military has launched a new round of precise strikes on Russian energy facilities, significantly impacting the Russian refining industry [1] - The Saratov refinery, processing approximately 20,000 barrels of crude oil daily, was heavily targeted, accounting for over 2.5% of Russia's refining capacity [3] - The New Kuibyshevsk refinery, with an annual processing capacity of nearly 9 million tons, has been hit multiple times this year, serving as a crucial fuel supply for Russian military aircraft [4] Group 2 - The Samara dispatch station, a key oil export hub responsible for distributing millions of barrels of Urals crude oil daily, was also attacked, affecting the stability of Russian oil exports [6] - Ukrainian forces emphasize that all targeted facilities are integral to the Russian military's logistics system, aiming to weaken the opponent's war machine through sustained strikes on energy nodes [6] - Reports indicate that the energy conflict has entered a new phase, with potential for escalated attacks in the future [7]

管涛 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 年初政府工作报告将今年居民消费价格指数（CPI）预期涨幅设定在2%左右，较往年下调了1个百分 点，并强调通过各项政策和改革共同作用，改善供求关系，使价格总水平处在合理区间。今年以来，央 行也多次强调把促进物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。至今，尽管国内物价依然维持低位运行， 但出现了一些积极变化，反映了供给侧"反内卷"的初步成效。只是稳物价依然任重道远，需要进一步综 合施策。 "反内卷"助力物价改善 今年前8个月，我国CPI累计同比下降0.1%，剔除食品和能源的核心CPI增长0.5%，工业生产者出厂价格 指数（PPI）下降2.9%；上半年国内生产总值平减指数下降1.0%，已连续9个季度同比下降。从这些指 标看，今年要实现年初制定的通胀预期目标难度不小。 但同时也要看到，国内物价运行边际上出现了一些积极变化：一是月度核心CPI自今年5月以来连续4个 月同比增速环比回升，8月份升至0.9%；二是8月份PPI同比下降2.9%，但月度同比降幅在经历连续5个 月环比扩大后首次回落，幅度达到0.7个百分点。 物价长期低位运行是当前我国经济面临的主要挑战之一，也是导致宏微观体感温差的主要原因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed a plan to redistribute the small refinery exemption (SRE) obligations for biofuel blending to larger refineries, offering options of 50% and 100% redistribution, while also seeking public input on other potential ratios [1][2] Group 1: Proposal Details - The EPA's proposal includes a public comment period of 45 days, which is considered crucial by industry officials [1] - The biofuel industry advocates for a full 100% redistribution to maintain demand for products like corn ethanol, while refiners oppose this, citing increased costs [1] - The proposal is seen as a "stalling tactic" by some industry officials, indicating a lack of substantial progress [1] Group 2: Background Information - According to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), refineries are required to blend billions of gallons of biofuels annually or purchase renewable identification numbers (RINs) from compliant entities [1] - Small refineries can apply for SRE exemptions if they demonstrate that blending requirements would cause financial hardship [1] - The EPA cleared over 170 SRE exemption applications from 2016, necessitating a compensation plan for the obligations [2] - The total amount of exemptions from 2023 to 2025 is equivalent to 2.18 billion RINs [2]