【环球时报驻韩国特约记者 黎枳银】综合《中央日报》《朝鲜日报》等韩媒11日报道，韩国一名视频 博主近日上传视频，称韩国好丽友公司旗下人气零食"波卡薯片"一袋仅含0.6个土豆，引发热议。面对 质疑，好丽友研究员通过公司官方账号及时回应，相关话题迅速登上韩网热搜。 随着舆论发酵，好丽友研究员在官方账号留言澄清称："一袋66克的波卡薯片，大约需要1至1.5个、每 个重约200克的土豆。"他解释说，生土豆含水量达80%至85%，经薄切油炸后大部分水分蒸发，"即便 是单纯计算也需至少300克土豆"。此外，家庭油炸与工厂生产在设备、温度、时间等条件上不同，油吸 收率差异会导致实验结果出现偏差。 韩媒称，波卡薯片自1988年问世以来一直是该国代表性零食之一。好丽友公司每年用于生产土豆类产品 的原料超过20万吨，在中、韩、越三国签约的土豆种植面积达3508公顷，相当于约4900个足球场。 据韩媒报道，视频博主"Zero B"本月6日发布题为《一包薯片里有几个土豆？》的实验视频。他先用游 标卡尺测量薯片直径（约66.9毫米），随后选取3个总重998克的土豆，保留外皮切成1.5至2毫米的薄 片，经浸泡、焯水、油炸等步骤后，最终得 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, China Duty Free, and others [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that domestic and overseas consumer subsectors are not showing synchronized movements, with internal factors driving stock performance [4][10]. - The performance of various sectors is analyzed, indicating that the U.S. hotel sector has outperformed others, while luxury goods and overseas cosmetics have seen significant declines [10][13]. Sector Performance Summary - **U.S. Hotels**: The sector saw a weekly increase of 7.9%, driven by strong performance from Marriott and Hilton, with Marriott's RevPAR growth meeting market expectations [5][13]. - **Pet Sector**: Increased by 1.1%, with leading brands showing significant growth in GMV despite overall sales being weak [5][13]. - **Gambling Sector**: Rose by 0.7%, with Macau's GGR exceeding expectations, indicating strong future performance [5][13]. - **Retail Sector**: Experienced a slight decline of 0.3%, with China Duty Free benefiting from new tax policies [7][13]. - **Snack Sector**: Fell by 1.9%, with competitive pressures affecting performance [7][13]. - **Gold and Jewelry Sector**: Decreased by 2.5% due to tax reforms impacting profitability [7][13]. - **Overseas Sportswear**: Dropped by 2.8%, facing tariff pressures and concerns over U.S. consumer spending [7][13]. - **Luxury Goods**: Declined by 3.0%, with concerns over upcoming earnings reports affecting stock prices [7][13]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Fell by 3.4%, with overall performance weaker than international brands [7][13]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Experienced a significant drop of 11.6%, primarily due to ELF Beauty's disappointing earnings [7][13]. Valuation Analysis - Most sectors are valued below their average over the past five years, with specific PE ratios indicating potential undervaluation [8][14]. - **Overseas Sportswear**: Expected PE of 28.6, 54% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Domestic Sportswear**: Expected PE of 14.1, 74% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Expected PE of 22.1, 42% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Luxury Goods**: Expected PE of 25.6, 46% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Gambling**: Expected PE of 29.1, 47% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Expected PE of 35.5, 53% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Expected PE of 27.9, 52% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Pet Sector**: Expected PE of 40.3, 55% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Snack Sector**: Expected PE of 26.8, 65% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Retail Sector**: Expected PE of 28.6, 53% of the past five-year average [14]. - **U.S. Hotels**: Expected PE of 31.4, 19% of the past five-year average [14]. - **Credit Card Sector**: Expected PE of 28.9, 55% of the past five-year average [14].

Investment Dynamics - Thunder Innovation has completed a Series C financing round led by CITIC Jinshi, with participation from CITIC Securities International Capital and CITIC Securities Investment. The funds will focus on R&D in near-eye display, AI algorithms, and multimodal interaction, aiming to transition AR glasses from niche products to mainstream smart devices [3] - Nestlé is intensifying its efforts to develop nutritional solutions targeting emerging growth areas, particularly focusing on women's health, longevity, and weight management through strategic collaborations with universities [6] - Timex Group has acquired a 51% stake in Daniel Wellington, marking the brand's entry into Timex's multi-brand matrix while maintaining its independence and design ethos [8] - Wancheng Group plans to launch a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for its Hong Kong IPO on November 11, aiming to raise approximately $300 million to $500 million, equivalent to about 2.1 billion to 3.6 billion RMB [11] - Meet Noodle is set to begin its pre-IPO roadshow this month, with expected fundraising between $100 million to $200 million, which will be used for store expansion and central kitchen development [14] - If Coconut Water has signed a memorandum of cooperation with the Shanghai Xihongqiao government to establish its first mainland China branch, enhancing its product matrix and consumer service experience [17] Financial Reports - Swire Properties reported that as of September 30, 2025, its three core shopping centers in Hong Kong maintained a 100% occupancy rate, with retail sales increasing by 3.6%, 3.0%, and 0.2% year-on-year [19] - Tapestry, the parent company of Coach, reported a 16% increase in sales for the first fiscal quarter, reaching $1.7 billion, with adjusted operating income rising by 24.2% to $354 million [21] Personnel Dynamics - PepsiCo plans to close two Frito-Lay facilities in Orlando, Florida, affecting a total of 500 jobs, as part of its strategy to curb declining snack sales in the U.S. [23] - Diageo has appointed Dave Lewis as CEO, effective January 1, 2024, who previously served as CEO of Tesco and has extensive experience at Unilever [26]

Core Insights - The leading companies in the mass-market segment are stabilizing, while the liquor industry is experiencing accelerated pressure release, reinforcing market share logic [4][19][39] - The food and beverage sector is expected to show stable overall growth with structural differentiation by 2025, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenues growing by +2.5%/+2.4%/-4.77% year-on-year, and net profits declining by +0.3%/-2.1%/-14.6% [4][12] - The liquor sector is entering a phase of adjustment, with a consensus on deceleration in 2024, as many companies are adjusting their strategies amid increasing channel pressures [4][19][39] Liquor Sector - In Q3 2025, the liquor sector's revenue and net profit declines have widened, with total revenue of 3,202 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, and net profit of 1,126 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year [19][35] - Major liquor companies are experiencing significant revenue drops, with only a few, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, showing positive growth [20][21] - The sector is facing increased competition, leading companies to prioritize market share over profitability, resulting in a decrease in gross profit margins [33][39] Mass-Market Segment - The mass-market segment is benefiting from proactive inventory reduction and macroeconomic policy support, leading to improved operations for leading companies in 2025 [4][12] - Specific categories such as sugar-free tea, functional beverages, and snacks are showing high growth rates, with companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng leading the charge [4][12] - The snack segment reported a revenue increase of 22.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, despite rising costs in certain product categories [4][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on liquor and restaurant supply chains, particularly companies like Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu, which are expected to benefit from policy sensitivity [4][12] - Stronger companies in the mass-market segment, such as Nongfu Spring and Yanjing Beer, are recommended for investment due to their robust performance [4][12] Financial Performance - The liquor sector's cash flow is under pressure, with many companies reporting negative operating cash flows, indicating a slowdown in business activity [40] - The overall net profit margin for the liquor sector has decreased, with only Moutai showing an improvement in gross profit margin due to better product mix [39][40]

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Guoyuan Group Co., Ltd. is seeking to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange due to pressure from a performance guarantee agreement, which requires the company to complete its IPO by December 31, 2025, or face significant financial penalties [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue from 2022 to 2025 (first half) shows a growth trend: 1.174 billion RMB in 2022, 1.322 billion RMB in 2023, 1.616 billion RMB in 2024, and 959 million RMB in the first half of 2025. Net profit also increased from 68.43 million RMB in 2022 to 106 million RMB in the first half of 2025 [6]. - However, the growth is primarily driven by a strategy of "price for volume," with the average price of dried plum snacks decreasing from 38.1 RMB/kg in 2022 to 32.6 RMB/kg in 2024, slightly recovering to 34.6 RMB/kg in the first half of 2025 [6]. Cash Flow and Debt Situation - As of June 30, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 42.435 million RMB, while bank loans amounted to 399 million RMB, indicating a significant liquidity gap [4]. - The company's current ratio was 0.99 and the quick ratio was only 0.45, highlighting substantial debt repayment pressure [4]. Marketing and R&D Expenditure - Liuliu Guoyuan has heavily invested in marketing, with sales and distribution expenses reaching 310 million RMB in 2024, including 79.02 million RMB in advertising, which accounted for 25.5% of total sales expenses [7]. - In contrast, R&D spending was only 76.24 million RMB from 2022 to 2024, showing a disparity of over 10 times compared to marketing expenses, and the company has not introduced any new products since the launch of its plum jelly in 2019 [7]. Market Challenges - The company faces significant challenges as it approaches the deadline for its IPO, compounded by previous financial pressures from buyback agreements and a declining profit margin, with gross margins decreasing from 38.6% in 2022 to 34.6% in the first half of 2025 [6][7].

Core Insights - The popularity of "Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu" (milk skin candied hawthorn) has surged this winter, becoming a trending winter snack across China, with long queues and high prices reported in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [1][3][4] - The combination of milk skin and candied hawthorn, which originated in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, has led to a significant increase in prices, with some varieties costing three to four times more than traditional candied hawthorn [3][8][10] Market Trends - The hashtag "Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu" has garnered 220 million views on Xiaohongshu and 840 million views on Douyin, indicating strong social media engagement and consumer interest [3] - The price of Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu varies significantly, with basic varieties priced between 15-30 yuan, while premium options can exceed 40 yuan, reflecting a substantial markup due to the inclusion of milk skin [8][10] Supply Chain Dynamics - There is a reported shortage of milk skin, which is primarily handmade and labor-intensive to produce, leading to supply constraints and increased prices from 10 yuan to 19 yuan per piece [12][13] - Many businesses, including snack shops and instant retail platforms, are capitalizing on the trend by introducing their own versions of Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu, indicating a competitive market landscape [15][19] Industry Implications - The dairy industry has seen a decline in overall consumption, with major brands like Yili and Mengniu reporting revenue drops, suggesting that while Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu is a trend, it may not provide long-term growth for dairy companies [20] - Experts suggest that while the product is currently popular, it may not lead to sustainable innovation within the dairy sector due to low profit margins and lack of differentiation in production methods [19][20]

Group 1: Core Insights - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) serves as a platform for global companies to showcase products and understand new consumer trends in China [1][2] - Amorepacific showcased over 20 new products making their debut in China, focusing on personalized skincare solutions and addressing specific consumer needs [1][2] - The demand for health-oriented products is rising, with companies like Laiyifen integrating national health strategies into their product offerings [2][3] Group 2: Industry Trends - The expo highlighted a shift towards health-conscious consumer preferences, with products featuring low-fat, low-GI, and no additives gaining attention [2][3] - AI solutions were prominently featured, indicating a trend towards smart healthcare services that enhance patient interaction and address healthcare challenges [3][4] - Companies are transitioning from being equipment suppliers to service providers, with a focus on comprehensive AI solutions to improve healthcare efficiency and safety [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [22] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the liquor industry has significantly declined, entering a rapid clearing phase, but demand is expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease [3] - The industry is currently at a low valuation level, with pessimistic expectations fully priced in, indicating a clearer direction for future industry clearing [3] - The introduction of new tax policies in the gold sector is expected to benefit companies with brand and channel advantages, leading to a concentration of demand towards leading enterprises [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry index decreased by 0.56%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.08% [4][6] - Among the sub-sectors, pre-processed foods led with a gain of 2.26%, while soft drinks saw the largest decline at -1.20% [4][9] Liquor Sector Insights - Guizhou Moutai announced a mid-term dividend of approximately 30 billion yuan and a buyback plan of 15-30 billion yuan, enhancing shareholder returns [4] - Guizhou is promoting a shift in the liquor industry from "selling liquor" to "selling lifestyle," aiming to upgrade the industry from traditional manufacturing to cultural experience [4] Gold Sector Developments - The new tax policy for gold sales, effective from November 1, is expected to increase costs for non-member companies, potentially shifting demand towards leading firms with membership qualifications [4] Consumer Goods Focus - The report suggests focusing on high-growth consumer goods companies, such as Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to receive valuation premiums due to their growth trajectories [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][15]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by low valuations, low institutional holdings, and a low base effect. The sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index for three consecutive years, and any changes in supply and demand dynamics could catalyze stock price increases [15][17]. - The report identifies three key judgments for 2026: 1) The sector's dividend attributes are becoming evident, with room for valuation expansion; 2) C-end consumption remains the industry’s foundation, but B-end and business scenarios may recover faster; 3) Health-focused innovative products and digital supply chains will be core growth drivers [15][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector saw a slight decline of 0.38% this week, with A-shares down 0.54% and H-shares up 1.88%. The top gainers included Anji Food (+13.87%) and Huifa Food (+13.07%) [1][3]. 2. Sub-sector Analysis - **Alcohol**: The sector is in a left-side layout phase, with recommendations for companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to benefit from national expansion [2][10]. - **Beverages**: The beverage sector is experiencing continued growth, with strong performance from leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage. The report recommends focusing on dairy products, particularly Yili, due to stable demand recovery [2][14]. - **Food**: The snack segment shows strong growth potential, particularly in konjac snacks, with leading companies like Weidong and Yanjin Puhui demonstrating competitive advantages [2][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining the investment portfolio, which includes Guizhou Moutai, Baba Food, Dongpeng Beverage, Weidong, and Luzhou Laojiao, as these companies are expected to outperform the market [3][18]. 4. Earnings Forecasts - Guizhou Moutai is projected to have a revenue of CNY 183.52 billion in 2025, with a net profit of CNY 90.59 billion, reflecting a growth of 5.4% year-on-year [19][20]. - Luzhou Laojiao is expected to see revenue growth of 3.1% in 2026, with a net profit forecasted to increase by 4.3% [20]. 5. Market Trends and Catalysts - Recent industry catalysts include the Central Economic Work Conference and various alcohol distributor conferences, which are expected to influence market dynamics positively [3][10].

Core Insights - The recent surge in popularity of "Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu" (milk skin candied hawthorn) has led to significant price increases, with some locations selling for as high as 98 yuan per skewer, and long queues forming for purchases [2][6][16] - The product has become a social media sensation, with discussions and posts about it gaining millions of views across platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu [14][20] - The rapid rise in demand has resulted in supply shortages, with suppliers struggling to keep up with the unexpected surge in sales [16][22] Market Dynamics - Various retailers, including Hema and Xueji Fried Goods, have quickly introduced their versions of Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu, indicating a strong market response to the trend [6][22] - The product's appeal is attributed to its unique combination of traditional ingredients and modern presentation, which resonates with consumer preferences for rich flavors and visually appealing food [24][33] - The trend has sparked a debate among consumers regarding the taste, with opinions divided between those who enjoy the product and those who find it overly sweet or unappetizing [18][20] Consumer Behavior - The product has been described as a "social currency," with its popularity driving consumers to share their experiences online, further fueling its demand [14][33] - The rapid price increases have drawn comparisons to stock market behavior, with some consumers expressing frustration over the volatility [17][20] - Despite the mixed reviews, the overall sentiment indicates that Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu has established itself as a significant trend in the food market [20][34] Industry Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current demand for Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu is high, the underlying market for fruit and nut snacks is relatively small, posing challenges for long-term sustainability [34][36] - The product's success may be short-lived, as it is categorized within a niche market with low user retention and a weak market foundation [34][36] - The potential for Nai Pi Zi Tang Hu Lu to evolve into a long-term staple in the snack industry remains uncertain, with industry experts advising caution for new entrants [34][36]