金属期权 2025-07-04 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏多震荡，构建看涨期权牛市价差组合策略和做空波动率策略策略；（2） 黑色系区间盘整震荡逐渐，适合构建卖方期权中性组合策略；（3）贵金属黄金高位盘整弱势回落，构建现货避险 策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） ...

Core Viewpoint - The "ESG Action Group" data platform has updated its ESG rating data for 2024, reflecting the growing importance of ESG factors in investment decisions and corporate governance [1] Group 1: ESG Ratings Overview - The number of A-share listed companies included in the ESG ratings has increased to 5,354 from 5,330 last year, covering major exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing [2] - The average ESG scores for the top five industries are in insurance, catering, construction installation, postal services, and black metal mining [2][5] - The average ESG scores for listed companies in Beijing, Tianjin, Ningxia, Shanghai, and Hainan rank highest among regions, with scores of 59.03, 57.96, 55.84, 54.34, and 53.93 respectively [7] Group 2: Industry and Regional Insights - The analysis indicates that industries with fewer listed companies may show inflated ESG scores due to the "head effect" from top-performing firms [6] - Industries such as ecological protection, power production, and waste resource utilization have high average ESG scores when excluding smaller sample sizes [6] - The ranking of listed companies by ESG scores has changed slightly, with local governments increasingly prioritizing sustainable development through policy initiatives [7] Group 3: Corporate Nature and Board Performance - The ranking of ESG scores by corporate nature is led by central state-owned enterprises, followed by other enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, public enterprises, collective enterprises, foreign enterprises, and private enterprises [8] - The scoring order by listing board remains consistent with last year, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board leading, followed by the Main Board, Growth Enterprise Market, and North Exchange Market [8] Group 4: Regulatory and Market Developments - The regulatory focus on enhancing ESG rating capabilities in China's capital market has intensified, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange implementing a special action plan to improve ESG ratings [12] - By the end of 2024, 342 listed companies in Shanghai are expected to be included in the MSCI ESG ratings, with 100 companies achieving upgrades in their latest ratings [12] - The action plan emphasizes the importance of both international and domestic ESG rating systems, advocating for a dual benchmarking approach for companies [13]

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.04） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 | | | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3072 7 0.23% | | 3170 | 98 | | 热卷 | 3201 8 | 0.25% | 3270 | 69 | | 铁矿 | 732.5 4.5 0.62% | | 718 | -14.5 | | 焦煤 | 839.5 -9 -1.06% | | 880 | 40.5 | | 焦炭 | 1433 -6 -0.42% 1182 -251 | | | | | | 市场概况 | | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体表现一般。螺纹收于3072元/吨，上涨0.23%；热卷主 | | | | | | 力合约收于3201元/吨，上涨0.25%；铁矿今日主力合约收于732.5元/吨；双焦 | | | | | | 今天小幅下跌。 | | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | | 本周期钢盘面打破了持续一个月的窄幅震荡行情，价格重心上移近百点，主要 | | | | | | 得益于供应端的利 ...

以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者紫金天风 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近日结束的中央财经委会议强调"要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后 产能有序退出"。政策信号释放后，大宗商品市场情绪明显回暖，部分投资者开始期待类似2016年供给侧 结构性改革带来的市场红利。 | 11×4/1 | HILLAR | LI THIT | 集中度 | 性质 | 装置占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PTA | -0.5% | 87.4% | 民营 | 34.2% | | | 乙醇 | -1.8% | 51% | 民营/国营 | 18.9% | | | PX | 2.1% | 72% | 民营/国营 | 30% | | | 燃料油 | 低硫5%-8% 高硫1%-3% | 60%-65% | 国营 | 40%-45% | | | 沥青 | 3%-8% | 3%-8% | 国营 | 35%-40% | | | LPG | 5.6% | 52% | ...

盖色金属数据日报 7000 1000 6000 800 5000 600 4000 400 3000 2000 1000 -200 螺纹基差(石轴) = 价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上 - 期货收盘价(活跃合约):螺纹钢 8000 800 600 6000 400 200 2000 -200 60-6700 10-570 as 2008 2008 2008 200 | 热卷基差(右轴) = 价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4. 75r 期货收盘价(活跃合约):热轧卷板 1000 -500 焦煤基差(右轴) 5000 800 【钢材】续涨动能尚可,周数据好转也添了一点油 4000 600 周四黑色板块依然算是坚挺,盘面延续增仓反弹,期盘续涨动能尚可;钢联周度数据显示淡季累库幅度和需求掉的节奏都没 3000 有失速,暂时托住了市场的信心。"反内卷"的导火线带来资金的跟随,期现正套以及前期反套被空单可能会带来短期现货 400 成交及投机需求的放量,观察持续性;我们更倾向于若短期未看到实质性政策出台,则对利润的利好影响及成材价格的独自 2000 利好并不能持续太久。值得关注的是,黑色板块品种的基差近期持续收缩, ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 一、动力煤 二、能源化工 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 原油基差 基差（右） 原油现货价:中国胜利 期货收盘价(活跃合约):INE原油 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/07/03 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/02 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/01 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/30 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/27 | -181.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 45 ...

如何看待今年（2025 年）美国政策对工业品市场的影响？ 今年（2025 年）是美国主导的宏观大年，美国政策对工业品市场有显著影响。 今年上半年，美国主要采取包括关税和支出减免等收紧措施，下半年则更多关 注经济刺激等放松动作。随着对等关税截止时间临近，美国将重心转回国内处 理内政问题。在这种背景下，美国是否愿意增加军备开支存在很大不确定性。 上周原油价格回落，地缘冲突见顶，引发降息预期交易提前开始。此外，上周 二鲍威尔在国会听证会上承认考虑提前降息，并提到不排除大幅降息可能性， 这也推动了以海外资产为首的一波上涨。 黑色壹周谈 2015 VS 2025，反内卷真等于去产能？ 20250703 摘要 2025 年市场上涨受估值和增仓驱动，黑色系商品反弹，焦煤率先启动， 需关注焦煤基本面、长协定价及仓单情况，以及美国政策对工业品市场 的影响，上半年收紧，下半年放松，对等关税截止时间临近，美国重心 转回国内。 国内反内卷政策通过行政化减产稳价，应对外需下行压力，在现货深水、 库存低位背景下，进一步做空盈亏比不佳，供给侧问题突出，行政化减 产成必要手段，引发空头减仓启动上涨。 铁矿石市场表现中性，缺乏明显上涨驱动和空 ...

金属期权 2025-07-03 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏多震荡，构建看涨期权牛市价差组合策略和做空波动率策略策略；（2） 黑色系区间盘整震荡逐渐，适合构建卖方期权中性组合策略；（3）贵金属黄金高位盘整弱势回落，构建现货避险 策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） ...

半年度报告——风险管理 基于期货技术分析 重点品种半年度风险管理指引 ★有色板块：警惕大趋势下趋势短线反转风险 有色板块需警惕趋势中短线反转。沪铝在上涨回调时适合技 术指标追踪，可用止损或买入看跌期权对冲。沪锌技术指标 对反弹转跌更有效，多头慎设止损或买入看涨期权替代。沪 铜关键风险：1)有效跌破 S1 支撑可能下探 S3，短期注意止盈， 长期持有的空头仓位应当谨慎对待；2)价格上探 R1 但量能不 足恐假突破，多单止盈或配合期权空头套保。 ★黑色板块：实施差异化管理 上游双焦采用短线箱体操作，长期持有需结合基本面。铁矿 石基本面趋势下箱体操作可宽松至 S3 至 R3，但反弹遇阻（R1 至 R2）需谨慎；双焦破位风险高，阻力可下移至新枢轴 R1。 重点品种螺纹钢需警惕空头回补反弹及假突破（量能不足上 探 R2 至 R3），多头套保可于 R2 至 R3 止盈或买入看涨期权； 现货企业可在 S1-R1 区间运用期权领口策略对冲风险。 ★农产品板块：高波动短线操作，低波动需结合基本面 高波品种棕榈油等可配合期权短线操作，警惕突发风险；中 低波品种需基本面配合，在枢轴 R1-S1 谨慎操作；玉米等低 波品种震荡上涨时 ...

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 industries compared to last month[6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while small enterprises' PMI is 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points[11] Supply and Demand - The production index and new orders index are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points[15] - The supply and demand index has rebounded, aligning with seasonal trends, with certain industries like food and beverage showing expansion[15] - Non-metal mineral products and black metal smelting industries continue to contract due to insufficient end demand from the real estate sector[15] Price Index and Procurement - The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index are at 48.4% and 46.2%, both rising by 1.5 percentage points[20] - The procurement index has increased to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points, indicating a rise in enterprise procurement activity[21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability[24] - The construction sector's business activity index is 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, showing a seasonal rebound but with notable sub-sector differentiation[26] Risks - External disturbances and changes in real estate demand pose risks to the overall economic outlook[30]