Market Overview - Global markets are dominated by geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Israel-Iran situation, leading to a surge in safe-haven assets like oil and gold, with Brent crude rising by 9% to $75.18 per barrel and gold surpassing $3,452 per ounce[4] - The VIX index has rebounded, indicating increased market volatility, while A-shares have shown a decline in price but an increase in trading volume, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bonds: Maintain a focus on leverage and duration strategies supported by loose monetary policy, while closely monitoring central bank liquidity operations and U.S. CPI data[5] - Overseas equities: Overweight non-U.S. market assets, such as Hong Kong and South Korean stocks, to capitalize on a weaker dollar and resilient fundamentals[5] - Commodities: Overall underweight due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on specific commodities like oil that may experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions[7] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] Economic Indicators - The Chinese Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded a slight increase to 50.30, indicating a marginal improvement but a significant drop from the March peak of 54.75, suggesting ongoing economic expansion challenges[40] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) expectations have reached new lows, indicating persistent price pressures at the production level, compounded by two consecutive months of negative CPI growth, reflecting weak consumer demand[49] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased by 13.1% to 1.341 trillion yuan, indicating heightened investor participation and a favorable liquidity environment for market valuation recovery[59] - The current valuation of A-shares is near historical averages, with the CSI 800's price-to-earnings ratio at the 48th percentile and price-to-book ratio at the 61st percentile, reflecting cautious optimism in economic fundamentals[64]

美国国债延续跌势，10年期国债收益率上升6个基点至4.46%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report is optimistic about the subsequent bond market. It believes that incremental funds for the bond market may come from the expansion of fixed-income asset management products and the increase in insurance allocation willingness. When market concerns fade, bond market interest rates may follow the decline of funding rates [5][15]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Interest Rate View: Where Do the Incremental Funds in the Bond Market Come From? - Since June, the funding situation has been looser than expected, with both funding rates and bond yields declining, but the decline in bond yields is smaller. The market is mainly worried about two issues: no more incremental funds in the bond market in the second half of the year and the unsustainability of the loose funding situation [5][8]. - The report is optimistic about the first issue, believing that there will still be incremental funds in the bond market in the second half of the year, mainly from two sources. First, fixed-income asset management products will continue to expand due to factors such as the lack of low-risk, high-return financial assets, stable market risk preferences, and the cyclical nature of fixed-income asset management products. Second, the insurance allocation demand will increase. The impact of the insurance product interest rate cut on premiums may be limited, and factors such as the deposit maturity rhythm and the search for capital gains in a low-interest rate environment may increase insurance bond allocation [5][8][11]. 2. Fixed Income Market Outlook: Release of Domestic Economic Data 2.1 This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Releases - This week, China will release economic data for May and the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for June, while the US will announce its interest rate decision for June [16][17]. 2.2 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest Rate Bonds - This week, it is expected to issue 841.8 billion yuan of interest rate bonds, which is at a high level compared to the same period. Among them, 430 billion yuan of treasury bonds, 261.8 billion yuan of local government bonds, and about 150 billion yuan of policy bank bonds are expected to be issued [17]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest Rate Bonds: Yields Fluctuate Downward 3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Funding Situation - The central bank has net-repurchased reverse repurchases and continued to inject funds through outright repurchases. The net injection of open market operations this week was a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan. The central bank plans to conduct an outright repurchase injection of 40 billion yuan for six months on June 16 [23]. - Funding rates have shown slight fluctuations. The trading volume of interbank pledged repurchase has continued to rise, and the medium- and long-term secondary yields of certificates of deposit (CDs) have declined rapidly [24][26]. 3.2 The Funding Situation is Favorable for the Bond Market - Last week, the bond market fluctuated slightly around the China-US trade talks. The progress was slightly lower than expected, which was favorable for the bond market. Coupled with the loose funding situation and the central bank's support, most bond yields declined. On June 13, the yields of 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year treasury bonds decreased by 1bp, 1bp, 0.1bp, 0.6bp, and 1.1bp respectively compared to the previous week [39]. 4. High-Frequency Data: Improvement in Automobile Retail Data - On the production side, the operating rates are divergent. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, while the semi-steel tire operating rate increased significantly. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt and PTA also increased slightly. The year-on-year growth rate of average daily crude steel production in late May further declined [44]. - On the demand side, the year-on-year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail sales by manufacturers have increased. The year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area has fluctuated significantly. The export indices have shown mixed changes [44]. - On the price side, crude oil prices have increased, while copper and aluminum prices, as well as coal prices, have shown divergent trends. The prices of some midstream and downstream products have also changed to varying degrees [45].

021-38676666 跨季扰动可控，久期行情渐显 [Table_Authors] 张紫睿(分析师) 本报告导读： 登记编号 S0880525040068 理财季末回表是确定性趋势，但考虑到目前信用债供需结构仍有支撑、跨季前后资 金面宽松预期，整体信用债回调压力或较小，跨季后信用债配置需求或快速修复， 中长端利差仍有压降空间。 投资要点： 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 专 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.16 [Table_Summary] 银行理财规模呈现明显的季末回落、季初回升特征，这与银行季末 考核压力密切相关，同时对信用利差产生一定扰动。季末时，理财 产品需将部分资产回表以满足存款等监管指标，导致理财规模下降， 信用债配置需求阶段性减弱，可能引发短期抛售压力。我们观察历 史季末理财规模变化和信用利差走势可以发现，季末两周的信用利 差上行概率较大，跨季后伴随理财配置力量回升，信用债配置需求 明显增加，带动信用利差有所压降。 二季度理财对信用债净买入规模并不突出，或与平滑估值整改有 关。4、5 月理财对信用债净买入规模分别为 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant role of stablecoin companies in purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds, with a total of $1.5 trillion acquired over 18 months, surpassing the holdings of major traditional buyers like China and Japan [1][3]. Group 1: Stablecoin Impact on U.S. Treasury Bonds - Stablecoin companies have transformed into major buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, effectively acting as a "perpetual motion machine" for these assets due to regulatory requirements [3]. - The global market capitalization of stablecoins has surged to $2.4 trillion, with daily transaction volumes reaching $27.6 trillion, exceeding the combined volumes of Visa and Mastercard [3]. - The decline of traditional buyers, such as China reducing its holdings to $765.4 billion, indicates a broader trend of capital flight from U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 2: Financial Mechanisms and Risks - The U.S. government is leveraging stablecoins to indirectly finance its debt, with companies like Circle being integrated into the financial system as quasi-central banks [5]. - The concentration of stablecoin assets in U.S. Treasuries poses significant risks, as 66% of Tether's assets are tied to these bonds, creating potential vulnerabilities in case of a default or rising interest rates [5]. - The liquidity risk is highlighted, with stablecoins only able to handle 15% of potential redemption pressures, while upcoming U.S. debt maturities could require them to absorb 20% [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The article discusses the geopolitical maneuvering, with countries like China diversifying their reserves away from U.S. Treasuries and increasing gold holdings [6]. - The use of stablecoins in international trade, such as purchasing oil with USDT, suggests a complex relationship between decentralized finance and U.S. dollar dominance [6]. - The potential for a financial crisis is underscored, as reliance on retail investor confidence could lead to a rapid collapse in the event of a panic sell-off [6].

德国国债开盘持稳，10年期国债收益率报2.54%。 ...

Group 1 - The Tianhong Credit Bond ETF (159398) has shown active trading with a midday increase of 0.03% and a transaction volume exceeding 1.2 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest [1] - The Tianhong Credit Bond ETF has experienced a net inflow of over 100 million yuan in the previous trading day and has seen continuous net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, accumulating over 1.76 billion yuan [1] - The Tianhong Credit Bond ETF was officially included in the repurchase pledge library on June 6, with a latest conversion rate of 0.6 [1] Group 2 - The Chinese bond market is becoming a key allocation direction for foreign public funds, driven by a weak macro environment and a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - The differentiation between credit bonds and interest rate bonds is increasing, with investors requiring higher precision in capturing opportunities and yield [2] - Bond assets are expected to provide strong risk mitigation in times of economic uncertainty, serving as a stabilizing force in equity market fluctuations [2] Group 3 - The supply side of credit bonds is characterized by a transition to a stock era for urban investment bonds, continued growth in industrial bond supply, and weaker supply from certain sectors [3] - Demand for credit bonds remains supported despite potential valuation volatility, with a focus on short to medium-term strategies in a fluctuating market [3] - The recommendation is to actively explore the value of medium to high-grade credit bonds with a focus on 4-5 year AA+ and above rated bonds [3]

日本20年期国债收益率上升2.5个基点至2.37%。 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a continued compression of credit spreads, with a notable divergence in performance among different credit types. Short-term credit, particularly short-term perpetual bonds, experienced a slight pullback after a rapid decline in interest rates in early June. Low-rated city investment bonds saw yields decrease by over 5 basis points within a year, while mid to high-grade credit bonds extended their durations, increasing participation in bonds with maturities of 5 years or more [1][10][19] - Institutional buying power for credit bonds has significantly increased, with net purchases reaching a new high for the year. Public funds and other products contributed the majority of this buying, while banks and insurance companies showed relatively weaker support, focusing more on certificates of deposit and local government bonds [2][15][19] - Since mid-May, there has been a slight increase in the primary supply of ultra-long credit bonds (maturities over 5 years), with overall issuance not considered weak. Institutions have shown a higher bidding sentiment for ultra-long credits compared to shorter maturities [3][32][34] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the report suggests that credit bonds with favorable supply-demand dynamics may continue to experience spread compression in a fluctuating interest rate environment. Short-term credit spreads are already extremely compressed, limiting their attractiveness. The central bank's loose monetary policy may allow for some movement in line with interest rate trends, but further compression appears limited [5][44] - For mid to long-term credits, the report anticipates that spreads may still compress, with a preference for bonds with maturities of 5 years or more. The report also highlights the potential for 4-year bonds to provide attractive yields [5][44] - The report emphasizes that ultra-long bonds remain appealing for institutions with stable liabilities, as they offer better coupon advantages compared to interest rates. However, institutions with strong liquidity needs should manage their positions carefully to avoid potential capital loss risks [5][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the central bank's efforts to support the bond market, the decline in bond yields has been limited. The large maturity volume of certificates of deposit (CDs) and the relatively high pricing of CDs have restricted the downward space for long - term yields. The short - term yields are also constrained by factors such as the lack of long - term funds, the pressure of CD maturities and tax payment periods, and the limited impact of the expected restart of central bank bond purchases [1][2][10][15]. - By the end of June, the downward space for short - term yields is expected to open up. This is due to the release of cross - quarter pressure on funds, the seasonal increase in bank wealth management bond purchases in July, and the potential restart of central bank bond purchases [27][28][31]. - The bond market strategy is to focus on coupon income and seize trading opportunities in a narrow - fluctuating market. Investors can consider the allocation opportunities of CDs, credit bonds, and interest - rate bonds, and also grasp the trading opportunities of 10 - year treasury bonds within a narrow range [34][35][42]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Why Can't the Bullish Bond Market Rise? - **Market Situation**: In June, the central bank showed an attitude of caring for the money market, and large banks increased their purchases of short - term treasury bonds. However, the decline in bond yields was limited. The 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bond yields declined less than in the previous week. The pricing of CDs remained high, restricting the downward space for long - term yields. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fluctuated around 1.65% without a significant breakthrough [1][10][14]. - **Reasons for Limited Short - Term Yield Decline**: - **Lack of Long - Term Funds**: The central bank's operations mainly provided short - term funds, while long - term funds were not sufficient. Since March, MLF has been in a monthly net - investment state, and banks' demand for long - term liabilities has increased [15]. - **Pressure from CD Maturities and Tax Payment Periods**: Since the second week of June, the weekly maturity volume of CDs has exceeded one trillion yuan for three consecutive weeks. Coupled with the tax payment deadline on the 16th, the pressure on capital gaps is large, and the pressure may ease in the second half of the month [20]. - **Limited Impact of Expected Central Bank Bond Purchases**: Although the market is concerned about the restart of central bank bond purchases, the impact on short - term yields may be limited. The downward range of short - term yields may be between 5 - 10bp [21]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: Loosening May Come Later, and Assets Can Be Snatched Now - **Downward Space for Short - Term Yields Expected to Open Up at the End of June**: - **Decline in CD Yields after Cross - Quarter Pressure Release**: With the central bank's care for funds and the possible renewal of MLF at the end of June, funds are expected to cross the quarter smoothly. After the cross - quarter pressure is released, CD yields may decline naturally [27]. - **Increased Bond Purchases by Bank Wealth Management in July**: In July, bank wealth management usually enters a period of rapid scale growth. The net purchases of bank wealth management in the secondary market increase, and they prefer CDs and credit products with a maturity of less than one year, which may open up the downward space for CD yields [27]. - **Potential Restart of Central Bank Bond Purchases**: Since June, large banks have significantly increased their net purchases of short - term treasury bonds. The market expects the central bank to restart bond purchases, which may support the short - term bond market [28][31]. - **Bond Market Strategy: Focus on Coupon Income and Seize Trading Opportunities in a Narrow - Fluctuating Market**: - **Allocation Strategy**: - **CDs**: From the end of June to July, the probability of success is high. Investors can pay attention to the allocation opportunities brought by the current price increase. CDs with a yield of around 1.7% have high allocation value [34]. - **Credit Bonds**: Focus on credit - sinking opportunities within 3 years and the opportunity for a slight compression of 4 - 5 - year credit spreads in July [35]. - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: In a narrow - fluctuating market, focus on the exploration of α - type bonds, such as 5 - 7 - year old interest - rate bonds. If the short - term yields decline, the α - compression market of medium - term bonds may be better [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 10 - year treasury bond is expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1.6% - 1.7%. Traders can consider entering the market when the bond market fluctuates and the long - term interest rate adjusts. When the yield approaches 1.62%, partial profit - taking is recommended [42]. 3.3 Review of the Interest - Rate Bond Market: Loose Funds and Expectations of Repurchase with Ownership Transfer Lead to a Bull - Flat Yield Curve - **Funding Situation**: The central bank's OMO continued to have a net withdrawal, but the money market was in a balanced and loose state. The weighted average price of DR001 dropped to around 1.36%, and the 1 - year CD issuance price of state - owned and joint - stock banks decreased from 1.7% to around 1.66% [9][60]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of local government bonds and inter - bank CDs decreased, while the net financing of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased [55]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spread of treasury bonds narrowed, while the term spread of China Development Bank bonds widened. The short - term yields of treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds decreased, and the long - term yields of treasury bonds decreased while those of China Development Bank bonds increased [52].