特朗普近期频繁与经济学界围绕就业、通胀和关税相关数据及研判发生冲突。本月初，特朗普因劳工统 计局最新发布的就业数据显著弱于市场预期而解雇劳工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗。 《华尔街日报》注意到，被特朗普针对的哈丘斯曾因2008年准确预测次级抵押贷款违约潮可能导致严重 经济衰退而闻名。他关于美国当前关税政策将削弱就业和经济增长前景、推高通胀的观点得到众多经济 学家认同。 另据《财富》杂志援引世界大型企业联合会最新报告，针对第三季度美国企业负责人的信心调查显示， 64%的企业首席执行官确信关税带来的价格上涨将会转嫁给消费者。 新华社华盛顿8月13日电 美国高盛集团日前发布研究报告认为，美国消费者将承担美国关税政策成本 中越来越大的份额。美国总统特朗普12日针对这一观点发文表示，高盛经济学家"应该换人"，集团首席 执行官应该改行做"打碟师（DJ）"。 高盛10日发布的最新报告认为，截至6月美国消费者已承担22%的关税成本。随着越来越多企业转嫁关 税成本，预计到今年10月，美国消费者承担的比例将达到67%。 特朗普12日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文批评高盛首席执行官戴维·所罗门及其经济研究团队，称 其对关税的相关预 ...

Group 1 - BlackRock anticipates the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September, with a reasonable basis for a 50 basis point reduction [1] - Barclays suggests that Stephen Milan could be a dark horse candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, given his close ties to Trump and potential for indefinite tenure if confirmed [1] - Nomura forecasts that the Federal Reserve may begin a rate-cutting cycle in September, with subsequent cuts in December and March of the following year [2] Group 2 - ING analysts believe that even if inflation exceeds expectations, any gains in the dollar may be temporary, as labor market data is deemed more influential [3] - CICC reports that the core CPI in the U.S. rebounded to 3.1%, indicating a structural upward trend in inflation, which may increase internal divisions within the Federal Reserve [4] - CICC also highlights that the global leading large models are expected to enter a period of intensive releases, particularly with the anticipated launch of GPT-5 [5] Group 3 - Huatai Securities maintains its prediction of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, citing moderate inflation transmission from tariffs [6] - CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to implement three consecutive rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, due to stable service inflation prospects [7] - CITIC Securities also projects a 2.5% positive growth in China's exports in the second half of the year, driven by trends in corporate overseas expansion and technological advancements [8]

来源|财联社 近日， 随着美国经济显示出放缓迹象，包括高盛、摩根大通、花旗在内，越来越多的华尔街投行预计美联储9月会降息，但对于降息50基点还是25基 点分歧仍然巨大 。 在上周意外疲软的美国非农就业数据公布后，美联储9月降息预期大幅升温，而周二公布的美国最新CPI通胀数据进一步了巩固了9月降息预期。 眼下，美联储9月降息似乎已是板上钉钉，市场悬念已经从"9月是否降息"变为"降息多少"。 美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据显示，7月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上升0.2%，与预期一致，较前一月放缓了0.1个百分点；同比涨幅维持在 2.7%，市场原先预期会上升至2.8%，结束近两个月的反弹势头。 在美国温和的7月CPI数据公布后，野村证券将其降息预期提前。 该行最新预计美联储将在9月降息25个基点，因有迹象显示美国7月通胀放缓，且就 业市场出现初步裂痕 。 不过该行表示， 下个月降息50个基点的可能性不大，因为"虽然劳动力市场正在放缓，但几乎没有压力迹象，总体金融环境仍然宽松。" 该行还预计，美联储未来还将进行两次幅度为25基点的降息，分别在2025年12月和明年3月。 该行还将美国7月核心个人消费支出（PCE）预期 ...

以下文章来源于独角金融 ，作者独角金融 独角金融 . 致力于涵盖银行、保险、信托、券商、基金、期货、互联网金融等大金融领域的报道，以独家视角观察金融，拆解市场，穿透迷雾。 文 ｜ 郑理 来源｜ 独角金融（ID：uni-fin） 封面来源 ｜IC photo 2023年2月26日，华兴资本（1911.HK）创始人包凡失联的消息，惊动整个创投圈。仅过数日，3月2日，华兴资本便公告称包凡正配合有关机关调查。这一 消息进一步加剧了市场的关注与猜测。两年半后，包凡终于有了新的动向。 8月8日，"财新"援引多个独立信源称，华兴资本创始人包凡近期"出来了"。在包凡"隐蔽"两年半里，华兴资本及其控股券商华兴证券也实现了去包凡化，他 的妻子许彦清走到台前，扛起了重任。同时，华兴资本、华兴证券董监高也实现"大换血"。 不过，包凡回归后，短期内或许难与自己亲手创立的华兴资本再续前缘。从华兴资本的最新公告来看，包凡不再参与集团日常管理与运营，其个人生活动态 属于私人事务范畴，华兴资本不再予以回应。当前，华兴资本业务及运作一切正常，由执行委员会全面负责集团战略推进。 包凡归去来。 市场对包凡归来的消息也做出了反应。截至8月8日收盘，华 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. inflation data indicates that inflation is not overheating, which, combined with weak employment data, has led the market to expect a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, estimated at 95% [4][5]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, matching market expectations, and year-on-year it increased by 2.7%, which is below the expected 2.8% and unchanged from June [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closely tied to inflation metrics like the PCE price index and CPI, with rate cuts being more likely when inflation is low or the economy is weak [4]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The U.S. government has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on 69 countries, which could create new inflationary pressures despite stable July inflation data [5][6]. - As of June, U.S. consumers had borne about one-third of the tariff burden, but this is expected to shift significantly, with consumer responsibility for tariffs projected to rise from 22% to 67% by October [6]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the core PCE inflation rate could increase by 0.16% in July and an additional 0.5% from August to December, potentially raising the December core PCE year-on-year inflation rate to 3.2% [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - While current inflation data supports a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the escalating tariff policies pose a risk of increasing consumer prices and inflation, creating uncertainty for monetary policy decisions [7].

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's comments regarding his conversation with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán about the Russia-Ukraine conflict and trade dynamics between the U.S., Russia, and China [1] - Trump indicated that Orbán provided insights on the military capabilities of Russia compared to China's trade strength, suggesting that Russia wins through warfare while China wins through trade [1] - The article highlights Trump's defensiveness regarding U.S.-China trade relations, asserting that China would not defeat the U.S. through trade during his presidency, contrasting with President Biden's approach [2] Group 2 - A report from Goldman Sachs challenges Trump's claims about the benefits of his tariff policies, indicating that U.S. companies have borne 64% of tariff costs, with consumers expected to shoulder 67% of these costs by October [4][5] - The report warns that rising prices due to tariffs will exacerbate domestic inflation, with 64% of CEOs planning to pass on increased costs to consumers [5] - Trump's reaction to the Goldman Sachs report included personal attacks on the firm's CEO, dismissing the report's findings and maintaining that tariffs do not lead to inflation or economic harm [6][7]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the July CPI report from the US Labor Department shows moderate inflation, which raises expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a weaker dollar and a rebound in precious metals [1][2] - In July, the US CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, matching market expectations, and year-on-year it rose by 2.7%, below the expected 2.8% [2] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 3.0%, marking the highest level since February [2] Group 2 - The overall moderate CPI data has removed a significant barrier for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, with traders raising the probability of a September rate cut to 95% [2] - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the CPI data is "moderate and in line with expectations," providing room for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's meeting on September 16-17 [2] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist indicated that the slight rise in core inflation is due to sticky service prices, but overall inflation remains manageable, suggesting the Fed may consider "insurance-style rate cuts" in response to slowing growth [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that spot gold is trading near the 3350 level, with a lack of clear direction as it hovers around the 5-day and 10-day moving averages [3] - Spot silver showed a slight rebound, stabilizing near the 37.50 support level, with potential for upward movement if it holds above the 38 level [3] - Spot platinum closed with a bullish engulfing candle, facing resistance at the 1340 level, with a potential challenge to 1370-1380 if it breaks through [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment philosophy of Victor Haghani and James White, emphasizing the importance of risk management and the challenges of long-term wealth preservation, as illustrated in their book "The Disappearing Billionaires" [2][5][8]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Victor Haghani's career reflects a significant evolution in market understanding, transitioning from a belief in market efficiency to recognizing the challenges posed by irrational investor behavior [3][12]. - The establishment of Elm Wealth in 2011 embodies a systematic approach to managing long-term stock risk exposure, focusing on minimizing emotional decision-making in investment [4][5]. - The book raises the question of why wealthy families from a century ago have largely disappeared, attributing this to the complexities of risk management and spending decisions [5][34]. Group 2: Human Capital and Wealth Management - The authors argue that maximizing human capital is essential for financial freedom, suggesting that individuals should focus on risk-adjusted human capital in their career choices [8][38]. - They emphasize the importance of prudent saving habits, especially for younger individuals, to avoid over-leveraging based on unrealized human capital [39]. - The article suggests that long-term financial decisions should be revisited regularly, particularly during significant life events or changes in income [40]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article critiques the common practice of fixed asset allocation, advocating for a dynamic approach that adjusts risk exposure based on market conditions and risk premiums [26][29]. - It highlights the limitations of index investing, arguing that while it is a good strategy, it may not be sufficient in all market conditions [31][33]. - The authors assert that the primary goal of investing should be wealth preservation rather than wealth accumulation, with a focus on human capital as the main driver of financial independence [52][53].

Core Viewpoint - UBS has adopted a rare "triple bearish" stance, issuing warnings on the US economy, the US dollar, and US equities simultaneously [1] Economic Outlook - UBS predicts a sharp slowdown in US GDP growth from 2.0% in Q2 to 0.9% in Q4, significantly below the consensus estimate of 1% [6] - The firm highlights several factors contributing to this outlook, including pre-tariff demand exhaustion, depletion of excess savings, immigration slowdown, and fiscal drag from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act [6][2] - Despite potential upward risks, UBS emphasizes that the trend of economic slowdown is unavoidable [6] Interest Rate Predictions - UBS forecasts a 1% decline in interest rates by year-end, which is double the market consensus of 0.5% [6] - The firm notes that the sensitivity of the economy to short-term rates is unusually low due to a high proportion of fixed-rate debt among households and corporations [6] US Dollar Analysis - UBS maintains a long-term bearish outlook on the US dollar, citing that the net investment position has reached -88% of GDP, suggesting a necessary correction before a new dollar bull market [11][7] - The firm acknowledges recent dollar rebounds but asserts that the fundamental logic for a dollar bear market remains intact [12] Equity Market Concerns - UBS sets a target of 960 points for the MSCI Global Index by year-end and 1000 points by 2026, warning of significant downside risks in the near term [15] - The firm expresses concerns over valuation and positioning, noting that global stock exposure is near historical highs [15][20] - UBS identifies a concentration risk in tech stocks, with about 70% of earnings growth attributed to generative AI, and warns that capital expenditure growth for large firms may slow significantly [21] Tariff Risks - UBS believes that the market is complacent regarding tariff risks, as evidenced by the performance of tariff-affected baskets in the US and Europe [22] - The firm emphasizes that the US accounts for only 16% of global trade, with many non-US countries reducing trade barriers among themselves [22]

高盛集团也将韩国今年GDP增速预期由1.1%调至1.2%，并表示韩美经贸协议降低了半导体等部分 产品单独关税的不确定性，将韩国今明两年GDP增速预期各上调0.1个百分点至1.2%和2.2%。 国际金融中心数据显示，截至7月底，8家国际投行对韩国今年GDP增速预期平均为0.9%，已连续 两个月维持不变。业内预计，韩国银行或将在8月修正经济展望，上调今年GDP增速预期。 韩国《韩联社》8月6日报道，据金融业界6日消息，国际投资银行近期纷纷上调韩国今年实际国内 生产总值（GDP）增长预期。8家主要国际投行中，摩根大通曾最为悲观，但已两次上调预期，从0.5% 先后调至0.6%和0.7%，称出口向好和制造业增长推动第二季度GDP略高于市场预期。 （原标题：国际投行上调韩今年GDP增长预期） ...