1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The allocation value of stock indices continues to increase, with a clear upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. - The intention to protect liquidity in the bond market is clear, and the expectation of the bond market has slightly improved, but it is difficult to form a trend - based market [1]. - For precious metals, the short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the - money put options. Silver has a high probability of upward valuation repair [4]. - For base metals, copper, aluminum, and nickel prices are expected to be range - bound, while alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility; methanol and polyolefin prices are expected to decline [10]. - For building materials, the prices of soda ash and glass are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions [8]. - For steel and coal, the prices of steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to be volatile, with a weakening trend [5][8]. - For agricultural products, cotton prices are expected to be range - bound, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [10]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market was strong, with communication and non - ferrous metals leading the gains, and home appliances and automobiles leading the losses. The trading volume on Friday decreased slightly to 1.18 trillion yuan. - In June, the A - share market started well, with technology stocks driving market sentiment and slightly boosting trading volume. - Overseas macro uncertainties have reduced global economic growth expectations, but Chinese assets have attracted the attention of foreign institutions. - The upward trend of stock indices is clear, but short - term breakthroughs require an increase in trading volume. It is recommended to buy IF and IM far - month contracts on dips [1]. Bonds - The central bank's intention to protect the market is clear, and the early announcement of repurchase operations has boosted market confidence. - Last Friday, bond futures closed higher. After the China - US call, China - US economic and trade consultations will be held in London. - The macro situation is uncertain, and the bond market is difficult to form a trend - based market. Short - term market conditions are mainly affected by liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise. It is advisable to buy on dips or hold short out - of - the money put options. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is high, and the valuation of silver is low. If the gold price remains strong, the probability of upward valuation repair of silver increases. It is advisable to hold short out - of - the money put options [4]. Base Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. Macro uncertainties remain high, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. - The demand is affected by macro uncertainties and the domestic consumption off - season. - LME inventories are decreasing, while COMEX and SHFE inventories are increasing. Copper prices are expected to remain range - bound [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The supply is uncertain, but the short - term impact is weakening. The resumption of production is expected to increase supply pressure, and prices may continue to run close to the cost line. - Aluminum: The supply is constrained, with support at the bottom, but the demand policy is uncertain, and the directional driving force is limited [4]. Nickel - The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the supply of refined nickel is in excess. The demand from the stainless steel and new energy sectors is weak. - The price of nickel is expected to remain range - bound, and it is advisable to hold short call options [4]. Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, and geopolitical disturbances continue. The number of US oil rigs has decreased significantly. - The demand for gasoline and diesel in the US is lower than expected. Oil prices have limited upside potential and will maintain high volatility [10]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operating rates have increased, and the price of thermal coal is stable. - Affected by positive factors such as the recovery of olefin plant demand and China - US talks, methanol futures prices have rebounded, but further upside is limited [10]. Polyolefins - The production of polyolefins has increased slightly, and more production capacity is expected to resume this week. - Downstream industries are entering the off - season, and the operating rate is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long the L - PP spread [10]. Building Materials Soda Ash - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in June, while demand is weak. The supply is relatively loose, and inventory is high. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the SA509 contract and go short on rebounds near the cash cost line [2][8]. Glass - The glass market has entered the off - season, with weak demand and high inventory. - It is recommended to hold short positions in the FG509 contract and consider long - short spread strategies [8]. Steel and Coal Steel Products - The spot prices of steel products are weak, and demand has entered the off - season. - The results of the China - US trade negotiations will affect market sentiment. It is recommended to hold short call options for rebar and short positions for hot - rolled coils [5][8]. Iron Ore - The static supply - demand structure of imported iron ore is healthy, but the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand may decline. - It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination or short the I2601 contract with a stop - loss [5][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - The supply of coking coal is in excess, and the price rebound is not sustainable. - The demand for coke is weak, and the price is under pressure [8]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The weather in the Xinjiang cotton - producing area is normal, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. - It is advisable to hold positions patiently and wait for a breakthrough in the price range [10]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is increasing, while demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The macro - atmosphere has warmed up, and capital attention has increased. Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards, with the main contract price once reaching the 79,000 - yuan mark on Thursday. The rise is due to the easing of Sino - US relations and financial attribute - driven catch - up growth. However, after the holiday, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly, and the spread between July and August contracts continued to narrow, pressuring the futures price. In the short term, the warming macro - atmosphere will drive copper prices to fluctuate upwards. Looking ahead to June, there are signs of a recovery in the macro - level [3][60]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - atmosphere has warmed up, but capital attention has decreased. Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated around the 20,000 - yuan mark with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest. Trump's statement on May 30 to raise steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% may increase market tariff expectations and is bearish for aluminum prices in the long - term globally. In the short - and medium - term, the continuous increase in bauxite port inventory at the industrial upstream, good downstream demand, continuous depletion of electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and low downstream initial inventory support aluminum prices. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile trend [4][60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - On the evening of June 5, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Trump expressed respect for President Xi, and both sides recognized the importance of Sino - US relations. The Geneva economic and trade talks were successful. - The Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and will hold the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards, with the main contract price once reaching the 79,000 - yuan mark on Thursday. Various price - related charts such as copper futures price trends, copper's Shanghai - London ratio, and others are presented [3][10][11]. - **Declining Copper Ore Processing Fees**: Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, indicating a tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. The domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year, reflecting an expected tightness in the domestic ore end [24]. - **Slowing Electrolytic Copper De - stocking**: The de - stocking of electrolytic copper has slowed down, as shown by the trends of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory [28][29]. - **Downstream Initial Demand**: The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries is presented, including data on refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips [31][32]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated around the 20,000 - yuan mark, with a narrowing amplitude and a decline in open interest. Multiple price - related charts such as aluminum price trends, aluminum's Shanghai - London ratio, and others are provided [4][33][34]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: The port inventory of bauxite has been continuously increasing, and the price trend of alumina is also shown [45][46][49]. - **Seasonal De - stocking of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory show a trend of change, indicating seasonal de - stocking [50][51]. - **Downstream Initial Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods and the processing fee and inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are presented [53][54][57]. 3.4 Conclusion - **Copper**: In the short term, the warming macro - atmosphere will drive copper prices to fluctuate upwards. In June, there are signs of a macro - level recovery. However, the industrial end is in the off - season, with poor consumption expectations and rising inventory, which will put pressure on copper prices [3][60]. - **Aluminum**: The futures price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. In the long - term, Trump's tariff increase statement is bearish for aluminum prices globally, but in the short - and medium - term, the increase in upstream bauxite inventory, good downstream demand, and low downstream inventory support aluminum prices. If the domestic macro - situation continues to improve, aluminum prices will show a stronger volatile trend [4][60].

数据显示，6月9日上海0#锌锭现货价格报价22590.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（21910.00元/吨）升 水680.00元/吨。 （6月9日）今日全国锌价格一览 表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 型 | | | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22640元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市场 | | | 吨 | | | | | 火炬 0#锌 | 22850元/ | 市场价 | 浙江省/金华 | 上海贝洲金属材料有限公司 | | | 吨 | | 市 | | | 红鹭 0#锌 | 22700元/ | 市场价 | 浙江省/温州 | 上海贝洲金属材料有限公司 | | | 吨 | | 市 | | | 飞龙 0#锌 | 22700元/ | 市场价 | 浙江省/台州 | 上海贝洲金属材料有限公司 | | | 吨 | | 市 | | | 品名:0#锌锭 ;牌号:Zn99.995 ; | 22600元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市 | | | 吨 | ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report suggests that the upcoming months of June and July will be critical for trade negotiations and economic observations, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China and EU trade talks, with a significant meeting scheduled on June 9 [5] - The U.S. economy shows resilience with no signs of recession as of May, and the market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have been slightly adjusted, indicating a cautious outlook for the next two months [6] Group 2: Market Performance - The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.13% over the past week, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [6] - A total of 20 industries are currently in a weekly uptrend, suggesting a broad-based market recovery, with opportunities for investors to position themselves favorably [6] Group 3: Banking Sector - Several banks have announced dividend distributions, with 11 banks having completed their annual dividend distributions by early June, indicating a proactive approach to shareholder returns [21] - The average dividend yield for listed banks is reported at 4.14%, with state-owned banks yielding between 4.3% and 5%, reflecting stable profit growth and a favorable long-term investment outlook [22] Group 4: Coal Industry - The coal price has seen a significant decline from a peak of 1615 RMB/ton in October 2021 to approximately 618 RMB/ton as of June 5, 2025, marking a cumulative drop of 997 RMB/ton [28] - Historical analysis indicates that coal prices typically recover following government intervention or demand-side stimulus, suggesting that policy support will be crucial for future price stabilization [27][28] Group 5: Real Estate Sector - China Resources Vientiane Life is positioned as a leader in commercial operations, with plans to open 6 new shopping centers annually from 2025 to 2028, contributing to revenue growth [31] - The company has demonstrated resilience with a projected retail sales growth of 4.6% in 2024, outperforming the overall retail sector [31] Group 6: Pharmaceutical Sector - The report highlights the transformation of China's innovative drug sector from an importer to an exporter, with a significant increase in the commercialization of innovative drugs [10][11] - The domestic innovative drug market is expected to grow, with the proportion of innovative drugs in medical insurance expenditures rising to 3.19% in 2023, indicating a robust growth trajectory [10] Group 7: Technology Sector - Guokewai plans to acquire a 94.366% stake in Zhongxin Ningbo, which is expected to enhance its capabilities in high-end filters and MEMS, thereby expanding its market reach in smart devices and connected vehicles [42]

Group 1 - The domestic aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract trading at 3053.0 CNY/ton and a decline of approximately 3.10% [1] - Supply from mining sources remains normal, with Guinea and Australia maintaining steady shipping volumes, leading to a situation of oversupply [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide inventory is decreasing, but the pace of reduction is slowing down, while the current price is significantly higher than the futures price, indicating a standard backwardation structure [1] Group 2 - Overseas aluminum oxide transactions have been relatively quiet, with minor price fluctuations, while domestic prices are rising, turning imports from losses to profits [2] - The aluminum oxide spot price remains firm due to concentrated maintenance and production cuts, with the 2509 contract expected to stabilize around the 3000 CNY mark [2] - Despite the current balance in supply and demand, medium-term expectations of oversupply pressure still exist [2]

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有色金属是现代工业体系的基石，广泛应用于发电、建筑、交通及制造业，为传统产业与基建提供支 撑。其中，阴极铜作为核心有色金属，是电力领域电线电缆、电子信息领域集成电路、建筑管道与装饰 的关键材料。随着全球经济复苏及新能源汽车、5G等新兴产业发展，其需求持续增长，市场规模稳步 扩大。 在此背景下，云南金浔资源股份有限公司（简称：金浔股份）于6月1日向港交所主板递交上市申请，华 泰国际为独家保荐人。金浔股份计划将此次上市募集资金用于拓展核心业务，包括扩大刚果（金）铜冶 炼二期项目的产能，以及提升赞比亚铜冶炼厂的产能，进一步巩固其在有色金属领域的市场地位。 刚果（金）第五大中国阴极铜生产商 智通财经APP了解到，金浔股份的历史可追溯至2010年，在业务发展初期，主要从事有色金属贸易。公 司分别于2017年及2023年开始在赞比亚及刚果（金）开展本地化铜加工及/或冶炼业务。目前，金浔股 份已发展形成集矿物加工、冶炼和有色金属贸易于一身的业务模式。 金浔股份的铜矿石加工及冶炼主要由公司分别位于赞比亚及刚果(金)的当地生产设施进行。截至最后实 际可行日期（2025年5月25日），除位于中国的在建钴加工厂外，公司有四处生产设 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Rolling short selling [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [3] 2. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows a pessimistic economic outlook, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressures. Nickel remains in a range - bound pattern. Nickel ore prices are seasonally weak, and the overall supply of nickel is in surplus. Demand is weak, with the main operating range between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan [1][2] Zinc - From January to April, the revenue and profit of large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises increased. Zinc supply is generally loose, while demand has some resilience but is expected to be weak in the short term. Overall, it is bearish [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory Macro & Industry News - For nickel and stainless steel, the Fed's "Beige Book" on June 4 shows that US economic activity has declined slightly, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressures. Some regions' enterprises increased procurement due to tariffs, and the residential real estate market was basically flat [1] - For zinc, from January to April, 11,945 large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises had a revenue of 3.08779 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%. The revenue profit margin was 4.15%, 0.39 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] Supply - **Nickel**: Philippine nickel ore shipments and domestic arrivals have increased, and nickel ore prices have weakened seasonally. Domestic nickel - iron production has slightly decreased, while Indonesian nickel - iron production has increased rapidly (year - on - year increase over 30%, month - on - month increase over 10%). Domestic nickel - iron imports and total supply are high, remaining in surplus. Electrolytic nickel production has a small month - on - month decrease but a year - on - year increase of over 45% [1] - **Zinc**: During the narrow - range fluctuation of zinc prices, the profit per ton of mining enterprises is about 4,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees in the north and south have returned to 3,500 yuan/ton. Both integrated and smelting enterprises will maintain high production, and the supply of zinc ingots is generally loose [3] Demand - **Nickel**: In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the cost of nickel is about 127,000 yuan. The demand support for downstream nickel sulfate is about 126,700 yuan/ton, and the profit threshold for external procurement manufacturers has dropped to 133,000 yuan/ton. Nickel - iron and stainless - steel integrated manufacturers previously had high stainless - steel production, but nickel - iron profits have shrunk since May, which may affect stainless - steel production. Overall, demand is weak [2] - **Zinc**: Galvanized production capacity has expanded, but utilization and output are low, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. Zinc oxide's upward trend is due to seasonal demand, with limited upside. Die - casting alloy production has increased, but there is an expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates. Overall, short - term zinc demand is difficult to improve significantly, but there is still resilience [4] Conclusion - **Nickel and stainless steel**: The main operating range is between 118,000 - 133,000 yuan, and the core operating range is between 120,000 - 127,000 yuan. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous short positions and roll short after rebounds [2] - **Zinc**: The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. Short - term supply is stable with a slight increase, and the demand peak season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about the terminal, so it is bearish overall. It is recommended to short with a light position [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated narrowly around 78,200 yuan, with an increase in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. After Trump announced an increase in steel and aluminum tariffs on May 30, the copper price did not rise significantly, possibly due to reduced market sensitivity. Post - holiday, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly, pressuring the futures price and narrowing the monthly spread. In June, the macro environment is favorable for copper prices. Although demand is expected to decline after the peak season, domestic demand may exceed expectations due to macro - policy transmission and a 90 - day easing of Sino - US trade relations. The copper price is expected to be strong, with short - term attention on the May high [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fluctuated strongly, with an increase in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, driving up non - ferrous metals. Post - holiday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. On June 3, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 526,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. Technically, the futures price rebounded after breaking below the 20,000 - yuan mark. Continuous attention should be paid to the support at the 20,000 - yuan mark [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price continued to rise with a reduction in positions, and the main futures price approached 123,000 yuan. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. Nickel had a large previous decline and now shows signs of a rebound from oversold conditions, with strong willingness among previous short - sellers to close positions. Technically, the short - term futures price rebounded from the bottom, and with the overall market warming up, the futures price is expected to remain strong [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On June 4, Cailian Press reported that Peru expects to produce 2.8 million tons of copper in 2025 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On June 3, Cailian Press reported that Goldman Sachs Group expects the aluminum price to drop to a low of $2,100 per ton in early 2026, which would halt over - investment in Indonesian smelting capacity. Analysts such as Eoin Dinsmore said that three 500,000 - ton smelters in Indonesia will be put into operation in mid - 2026, earlier than expected. The increase in production will result in a surplus supply of 1 million tons in 2026, the largest since 2020. Cost - price decline, weak alumina prices, and energy prices will put downward pressure on the aluminum price in 2026. In the future, the price will rise to the range of $2,150 - $2,550 per ton. The bank has lowered its price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 from $2,540 and $2,800 to $2,230 and $2,500 per ton respectively [10]. - **Nickel**: On June 4, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2507 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,500 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,580 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +450 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,530 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,680 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,180 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][30][26]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][37].

1、现货市场：钦州中粮进口三级菜油 9300 元/吨，较上一交易日跌 70 元/吨。 2、市场分析：供应方面，端午节后，国产菜籽即将陆续上市。后市，近月进口菜籽到港供 应较为充裕，远月进口菜籽到港暂较为偏紧。菜油下游需求中性。库存端，菜油库存中短 期或维持高位。 3、参考观点：菜油 2509 合约，短线于或平台区间内震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区节前现货报价：张家港 2800 元/吨（-70）、天津 2870 元/吨（-70）、 日照 2810 元/吨（-60）、东莞 2800 元/吨（-60）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易达成阶段性协议，但长期矛盾仍存。 （2）国际大豆：关税政策和天气为价格主要驱动因素。美豆播种顺利，巴西大豆出口高峰 期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：大豆供给逐渐恢复，油厂开机率和压榨恢复正常，豆粕供给压力逐 渐凸显。豆粕成交缩量，下游采购意愿偏弱，随着下游企业安全库存建立，下游贸易商维 持随用随采、滚动补库为主。油厂大豆库存回升至高位，豆粕库存累库速度短期较缓。 参考观点：豆粕短线或震荡偏弱。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2204 元/吨；华北黄淮 ...