Core Insights - The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported a 0.6% year-on-year increase in global primary aluminum production for October, reaching 6.294 million tons, with a daily average production of 203,000 tons [1] - Excluding China and unreported regions, the primary aluminum production in October was 2.314 million tons, with a daily average of 74,600 tons [1]

其次，大摩还指出，供应面临挑战。在新的供应方面，大摩预计2026年全球产量将达到约140万吨。印 度尼西亚是一个重要的新供应来源国，它拥有铝土矿、煤炭和氧化铝，因此是铝的理想产地。然而，中 国在2021年承诺不会在境外新建任何火力发电设施，以实现碳中和目标。中国企业将需要找到当地的合 作伙伴为其提供电力。电力建设可能需要相当长的时间，即18至24个月。因此，尽管印度尼西亚有大量 铝产能的建设规划，但实际产量却相当缓慢。大摩估计2026年印度尼西亚的新增供应量仅为70万吨。此 外，由于电力问题导致了供应风险，今年全球范围内出现了几次生产中断事件，约70万吨的产能。因 此，大摩预计2026年全球将出现供应短缺。 此外，库存也非常低。目前中国铝的库存仅为60万吨，与过去五年的历史水平相比相对较低。此外，政 府鼓励将熔融铝的比例从目前的约77%提高到2027年的90%，这可能会导致期货市场上可交付的铝锭减 少，从而支撑铝价。 首先，大摩表示，中国铝的需求将因ESS及其他消费电子产品而实现显著增长：随着ESS的增长速度大 幅加快，其使用的铝量也在增加。6月份，ESS在中国整体电池装机量中的占比仅为25%，但此后已增 长 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报，认为铝业的前景已有所改善，这得益于储能系统(ESS)带来 的需求远超其预期，以及电力问题带来的供应挑战。因此，大摩目前预计中国宏桥(01378)盈利将有更 大的增长空间。在此基础上，大摩将中国宏桥目标价从30.6港元上调至44.7港元，并重申为首选股与"增 持"评级。 其次，大摩还指出，供应面临挑战。在新的供应方面，大摩预计 2026 年全球产量将达到约 140万吨。 印度尼西亚是一个重要的新供应来源国，它拥有铝土矿、煤炭和氧化铝，因此是铝的理想产地。然而， 中国在 2021 年承诺不会在境外新建任何火力发电设施，以实现碳中和目标。中国企业将需要找到当地 的合作伙伴为其提供电力。电力建设可能需要相当长的时间，即 18 至 24 个月。因此，尽管印度尼西亚 有大量铝产能的建设规划，但实际产量却相当缓慢。大摩估计 2026 年印度尼西亚的新增供应量仅为70 万吨。此外，由于电力问题导致了供应风险，今年全球范围内出现了几次生产中断事件，约70万吨的产 能。因此，大摩预计 2026 年全球将出现供应短缺。 此外，库存也非常低。目前中国铝的库存仅为60万吨，与过去五年的历史水平相 ...

Core Points - The chairman of Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. (Yun Aluminum) has resigned due to work changes, and the board has appointed Huang Li to act as the chairman temporarily until a new chairman is elected [2][6][8] Group 1: Resignation and Transition - Ji Shujun has submitted his resignation as the chairman and other positions within the company, effective immediately upon delivery to the board [2][6] - The board expressed gratitude for Ji Shujun's contributions during his tenure, highlighting his efforts in promoting the company's development as a leading green and low-carbon aluminum enterprise [2][6] Group 2: Board Meeting and Decisions - The 18th (temporary) meeting of the 9th board of directors was held on November 20, 2025, with all 10 directors present [4][5] - The board unanimously approved the proposal to appoint Huang Li as the acting chairman and legal representative of the company [5][7] - A proposal to elect Zhang Dejiao as a non-independent director was also approved, pending shareholder approval [8][9] Group 3: Upcoming Shareholder Meeting - The company will hold its third temporary shareholder meeting on December 9, 2025, combining on-site and online voting [16][17] - The meeting will allow shareholders to vote on the proposed election of Zhang Dejiao and other matters [9][24]

Group 1 - The company plans to issue up to 400 million shares at a price of HKD 29.2 per share, raising a maximum of HKD 11.68 billion, which represents a discount of approximately 9.6% from the previous trading day's closing price [1] - The funds raised will be used to optimize the capital structure and support the development of domestic and overseas projects, including a significant aluminum production capacity in China and a joint venture in Guinea [1] - The company is expected to maintain a stable performance in 2026-2027, supported by a strong outlook for aluminum prices and an improved capital structure, which may facilitate continued high dividend policies [1] Group 2 - The company is actively pursuing a "large-scale buyback + high dividend" strategy, having repurchased 1.87 million shares for HKD 2.6 billion in the first half of the year and planning a new round of buybacks totaling at least HKD 3 billion [2] - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio above 45% since 2020, with ratios of 46.8%, 47.0%, and 63.4% over the past three years, reflecting confidence in future growth and commitment to shareholder returns [2] Group 3 - The profit margins in the electrolytic aluminum sector are expected to continue expanding, potentially offsetting downward pressure from alumina prices, as domestic production capacity is strictly limited while demand remains strong [3] - The company’s main businesses include alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with alumina prices currently at a low point, limiting the potential for significant further declines [3] - The company maintains optimistic profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of CNY 25.625 billion, CNY 25.426 billion, and CNY 25.760 billion, respectively, and a target price of HKD 35.22 based on a 12X PE ratio [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch a pricing section for aluminum trading at the Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center starting from November 21, 2025, which will include aluminum ingots, alumina, casting aluminum alloys, and aluminum bars [1] Group 1 - The launch date for the new pricing section is set for November 21, 2025 [1] - The types of products to be quoted include aluminum ingots, alumina, casting aluminum alloys, and aluminum bars [1]

需求端：储能成为"隐形巨兽" 摩根士丹利最新预测，全球铝市场将在2026年陷入供应短缺，这一时间点明显早于市场此前的普遍预期。核心驱动力来自于供需剪刀差的急剧扩大： 在需求端，储能系统（ESS）对铝的消耗呈现"暴冲"态势，完全抵消了其他板块的疲软；而在供给端，全球电力紧张正成为硬约束，AI算力对电力的争 夺正在挤压由于高耗能而脆弱的铝冶炼产能。 市场长期以来低估了能源转型对基础金属的消耗，尤其是储能领域。大摩的数据不仅令人惊讶，更是敲响了警钟： 华尔街正在修正对铝市场的预期。摩根士丹利在11月19日发布的最新重磅研报中指出，铝的基本面正在经历结构性逆转。 摩根士丹利最新报告指出全球铝市场将在2026年陷入供应短缺，这一时间点较市场预期提前至少一年。铝市场正面临结构性转变，核心驱动在于需求端 因储能系统爆发式增长，预计2026年仅该领域就将带来144万吨新增铝需求；而供应端受制于全球电力短缺，印尼新增产能投产延迟且AI算力中心争夺 电力资源，导致供需缺口持续扩大。 此前，市场主流观点较为保守。花旗分析师曾预测全球原铝供应缺口将从2027年开始出现，Wood Mackenzie则认为短缺将始于2028年。摩根士丹 ...

Group 1 - The company, Minfa Aluminum (002578), responded to investor inquiries on November 20 regarding the number of shareholders, indicating that detailed information can be found in the periodic report [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Minfa Aluminum, stated that its production of products related to new energy vehicles, specifically aluminum profiles for battery trays, constitutes a small portion of its sales revenue and will not significantly impact its operational performance [1] Group 1 - The company produces aluminum profiles primarily for battery trays related to new energy vehicles [1] - The sales revenue from these products represents a minor share of the company's total revenue [1] - The impact of this segment on the company's overall operational performance is minimal [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is revising its expectations for the aluminum market, with Morgan Stanley predicting a global aluminum supply shortage by 2026, earlier than previously anticipated [1][2]. Demand Side - The demand for aluminum is significantly driven by energy storage systems (ESS), which are expected to increase aluminum consumption by over 2% in 2026, countering weaknesses in other sectors [3][5]. - The production of electric vehicles has increased by 30% this year, contributing to the rising demand for aluminum alongside appliances and power cables [3]. - ESS is projected to consume approximately 96,000 tons of aluminum in 2025, a 71.4% year-on-year increase, and 144,000 tons in 2026 [5]. Supply Side - The anticipated supply from Indonesia is overly optimistic, with Morgan Stanley estimating only 700,000 tons of new supply by 2026 due to slow project implementation [5]. - The aluminum smelting industry is facing competition for electricity from AI data centers, which are willing to pay significantly higher prices for power, impacting the viability of existing smelting operations [5][7]. - China's aluminum production is nearing its annual capacity limit of 45 million tons, with expected domestic supply growth of only 600,000 to 700,000 tons by 2026 [5]. Inventory and Market Structure - Current aluminum inventory in China is at a historically low level of 600,000 tons, providing strong support for aluminum prices [13]. - The increasing direct utilization of molten aluminum is expected to tighten the available deliverable supply in the futures market, further supporting price stability [13][8].