Core Insights - Hainan's trade with Arab League countries reached 6.2 billion yuan in the first quarter, marking a year-on-year growth of 23.5% and accounting for 10.2% of Hainan's total imports and exports during the same period [1][2]. Trade Performance - Hainan's imports from Arab League countries included liquefied propane (1.17 billion yuan, up 190%), ethylene glycol (670 million yuan, up 35%), and metal ores (48.286 million yuan, up 13.9 times) [3]. - Exports to Arab League countries comprised polyester chips (490 million yuan, up 161.4%), electromechanical products (380 million yuan, up 55%), and paper products (120 million yuan, up 18.7%) [3]. - The number of Hainan enterprises engaging in trade with Arab League countries increased by 36.1%, totaling 166 companies, with private enterprises accounting for 5.21 billion yuan of the trade, a growth of 17.2% [3]. Agricultural Trade - Hainan's high-quality fruits, vegetables, and seafood are increasingly being exported to Arab League countries, with specific examples including over 10,000 pounds of eggplants and zucchinis exported to Dubai and the first export of okra from Sanya [4]. - The processing companies for tilapia, a major seafood export from Hainan, are also expanding their market presence in Arab League countries [4].

近日，美国《大西洋月刊》刊登了一篇文章，不仅分析了美国对中国挑起的贸易摩擦会如何收场，还展 望了中国扛住施压和讹诈后将赢得什么。这篇文章一上来就写道：美国与中国的这场"博弈"中，美国政 府眼下做出的每一件事"都是错的"。《大西洋月刊》认为，现在这场博弈的主动权已经落到了中国手 中，而中国看起来并不着急，最后的结果则可能是白宫——在搬起石头砸疼自己的脚后——会得到一 些"象征性"的好处，而中国会得到实质收益：比如与欧洲、亚洲各国更紧密的贸易伙伴关系、更有利的 地缘政治局面。（环球时报） ...

广交会作为联通全球贸易的战略通道，正通过搭建国际交流大舞台，吸引全球广大优质参展商和众多专 业采购商，携手推进跨境贸易便利化与投资环境优化进程。 今年是"十四五"规划收官之年，中国进出口商品交易会（广交会）作为全球经贸领域的重要盛会，通过 助力中国对外贸易创新发展，推动实现外贸"稳量提质"的核心目标，为构建新发展格局持续提供强大动 能。 （王立系商务部研究院美洲大洋洲研究所研究员，权金亮系商务部研究院美洲大洋洲研究所副研究员） 权金亮 据中国海关统计，2024年，我国货物贸易进出口总值43.85万亿元，同比增长5%。其中，出口25.45万亿 元，同比增长7.1%；进口18.39万亿元，同比增长2.3%。我国外贸总量、增量、质量均实现稳步增长。 贸易规模再创历史新高，并继续保持货物贸易第一大国的地位。2024年，我国市场多元化稳步推进。对 共建"一带一路"国家合计进出口22.07万亿元，同比增长6.4%，占我国进出口总值的50.3%。其中，对东 盟进出口6.99万亿元，同比增长9%，连续5年互为第一大贸易伙伴。同期，我国对欧盟、美国进出口同 比分别增长1.6%、4.9%。 中国拥有全球工业标准分类体系全覆盖的产 ...

央视网消息：当前国际贸易局势复杂，被誉为"世界超市"的浙江义乌站在了风口浪尖。记者实地走访义乌国际商贸城后发现，大多数经营 户保持镇定，通过各种方式向外界传递着他们的信心。 义乌国际商贸城经营户蒋江平称："我们义乌市场做的是全球的生意，美国他们西方不亮，我们东方亮，我可以多做一些像哈萨克斯坦、 俄罗斯的生意，也都做得挺好的。美国单子不接，空下来的时间，我可以把这些损失的单子照样接回来。" 每个工作日的早上8点半，义乌国际商贸城的中庭上就会有一堂生动的外语课，已经连续开了19年，从英语到阿拉伯语，有人边吃泡面边 记笔记，有人举着手机对照阿拉伯语教学视频。 在这家经营厨具的店铺里，经营户刘萍娟正在和一名来自瑞典的采购商介绍产品，他告诉记者，自己的生意并不依赖美国市场，虽然美国 客户年前订的货是打算4月底就要出货的，但目前这批货已经出口到非洲市场了。 义乌国际商贸城经营户刘萍娟称："我们义乌的企业，包括中国的企业韧劲十足，你关了一扇门，我们可以开无数扇门，因为我们是做全 球贸易的。目前来说，南美市场如巴西、墨西哥，对中亚五国、对非洲，这两年布局还是非常可观的。" 在圣诞用品区，记者看到，有不少的外商正在各个店铺里面 ...

一时间，特朗普在国际舞台上陷入孤立无援的境地，其形象和信誉也遭受重创，被世界公义所唾弃。不 仅如此，中国还明确告知美国，鉴于当前美国单方面加征高额关税的现状，美国输华商品在价格等方面 已毫无市场竞争力，在中国市场失去了原有的优势和接受可能性。并且郑重声明，若美方后续仍执意对 中国输美商品继续加征关税，中方将不再理会。这"不予理会"四个字，铿锵有力，尽显中国在这场贸易 博弈中的坚定立场，表明中国不会被美国的关税大棒所威慑，将坚定不移地走自己的路，全力维护国家 的核心利益和尊严。 特朗普原本妄图凭借关税这一手段拿捏中国，如今看来，他的如意算盘已彻底落空，即便他将关税税率 加到再高的程度，对中国而言也不过是毫无意义的数字游戏，无法对中国产生任何实质性的威胁。反观 美国国内，特朗普的关税政策犹如一颗定时炸弹，对美国自身经济造成了严重冲击。在特朗普宣布暂停 对部分国家90天关税后，仅仅过了一天，美国股市和债券市场就双双遭受重创，呈现出大幅下跌和抛售 潮的惨淡景象。 特朗普天真地以为，凭借美国强大的经济实力和市场影响力，中国会在其极限施压下就范，按照美国的 意愿重新调整贸易政策，在贸易谈判中满足美国提出的诸多不合理要求。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article criticizes the detrimental effects of the United States' excessive imposition of tariffs, arguing that such actions are counterproductive and violate the principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO) [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. tariffs are described as harmful not only to others but also to the U.S. itself, distorting global market resource allocation [1] - The actions of the U.S. are said to undermine the foundation of global cooperation and damage the multilateral trading system based on rules [1] Group 2: China's Position - China emphasizes its commitment to justice and fairness, stating that it will take necessary measures to counteract the U.S.'s erroneous actions [1] - The article advocates for open cooperation as a historical trend, asserting that the world should not revert to isolation and division [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, highlighting the shift in attitudes of various countries towards the U.S. and the strengthening of ties with China as a result of U.S. tariff policies [1][4][19]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Policy and Global Response - The Trump administration's trade war has prompted over 75 countries, including Japan, Vietnam, and Canada, to seek tariff negotiations with the U.S. [1][3]. - Following China's strong retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs, countries that initially sought U.S. concessions have begun to adopt a more assertive stance, negotiating new trade agreements with China instead [4][19]. - As of now, no formal tariff agreements have been reached between the U.S. and the countries that initially sought negotiations, raising questions about the effectiveness of the 90-day tariff reprieve announced by Trump [5][6]. Group 2: China's Position and Global Trade Dynamics - China's robust response to U.S. tariffs has led to a reassessment among countries that previously aligned with the U.S., as they now see potential benefits in aligning with China [8][19]. - The article suggests that the U.S. lacks the hard power to dominate the trade war, with China emerging as a likely winner, prompting countries like the EU, Japan, and Vietnam to reconsider their positions [19][21]. - The U.S. government's inconsistent policies and the lack of trust in the execution of any potential agreements further discourage countries from engaging in negotiations with the U.S. [22][23].

Group 1 - The trade conflict between China and the United States has escalated since 2018, with the Trump administration imposing tariffs on Chinese goods as part of its "America First" strategy, while China has responded with higher tariffs, including a recent increase to 125% on U.S. products [1][3] - China is not cornered by the U.S. tariffs but is instead strengthening its international relationships, particularly with ASEAN countries, signaling a shift towards a cooperative multilateral strategy [3][5] - The EU has agreed to set minimum prices for Chinese electric vehicle exports, which may resolve major trade disputes and potentially restart the EU-China free trade agreement, undermining Trump's strategy to divide international trade [5][7] Group 2 - The ongoing trade war reflects a deeper global economic struggle, with China gaining more international support through flexible responses and global cooperation strategies [7][9] - The U.S. should consider engaging in calm negotiations with China rather than remaining fixated on tariff numbers, as mutual benefits are essential for global economic stability [9]

2025年04月15日 二次抢出口正在孕育,但更陡峭下滑风险亦增 -- 国际贸易数据点评(2025.3) 团队成员 周欣然(S0210525040005) 投资要点: > 别除春节提前导致的3月偏强效应,3月出口同比约5.7%,显著低于抢出口 集中的2月。美国关税局部缓和但仍旨在隔离我国供给,我国出口仍然面临较大 不确定性。3月出口(美元计价,下同)同比12.4%,较2月反弹达15.4个百分点, 但主要原因是春节提前导致的3月偏强效应。由于春节提前至1月,节后复工和出 口恢复期集中于2月,从而令3月出口同比错位性暂时走强。甚于我们团队率先构 建的出口春节调整定量模型,剔除这一暂时性因素后,3月出口同比5.7%,转而 显著低于2月达7.8个百分点。这显示出特朗普前期分两次加码对华加征关税至 20%所引发的首轮"抢出口"效应已经有所衰减。3月进口同比-4.3%,较2月下滑 5.8个百分点,当月货物贸易顺差达 1026亿美元。4月以来,特朗普关税计划一方 面日益凸显对华针对性,另一方面亦暴露出产业链向美国回流的巨大成本掣肘。全 球产业链"极限拉扯"过程中,出口面临短期震荡、长期走弱的巨大不确定性。 > 本轮"抢出口 ...

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 04 月 15 日 二次抢出口正在孕育，但更陡峭下滑风险亦增 ——国际贸易数据点评（2025.3） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 剔除春节提前导致的 3 月偏强效应，3 月出口同比约 5.7%，显著低于抢出口 集中的 2 月。美国关税局部缓和但仍旨在隔离我国供给，我国出口仍然面临较大 不确定性。3 月出口（美元计价，下同）同比 12.4%，较 2 月反弹达 15.4 个百分点， 但主要原因是春节提前导致的 3 月偏强效应。由于春节提前至 1 月，节后复工和出 口恢复期集中于 2 月，从而令 3 月出口同比错位性暂时走强。基于我们团队率先构 建的出口春节调整定量模型，剔除这一暂时性因素后，3 月出口同比 5.7%，转而 显著低于 2 月达 7.8 个百分点。这显示出特朗普前期分两次加码对华加征关税至 20%所引发的首轮"抢出口"效应已经有所衰减。3 月进口同比-4.3%，较 2 月下滑 5.8 个百分点，当月货物贸易顺差达 1026 亿美元。4 月以来，特朗普关税计划一方 面日益凸显对华针对性，另一方面亦暴露出产业链向美国回流的巨大成本掣肘。全 球产业链"极限拉扯"过程中，出口面临短 ...