Core Viewpoint - Forgent Power Solutions (FPS.US) successfully debuted on the US stock market, with its stock price rising by 7.41% to $29, above the IPO price of $27 [1] Company Overview - Forgent designs, manufactures, and sells equipment such as transformers, power distribution units, and switchgear for data centers, which require a continuous and reliable power supply [1] - The company was founded by private equity firm Neos in 2023 and has been expanding through acquisition transactions in 2023 and 2024 [1]

Group 1 - As of January 31, 2026, 1,714 out of 2,886 companies in the Shenzhen market have pre-disclosed their 2025 performance, representing 59.39% of the total companies and 48.48% of the market capitalization [1] - Among the pre-disclosed companies, 987 are expected to see performance improvement, with 430 companies achieving continuous profitability and year-on-year growth, while 227 companies are expected to turn losses into profits [1] - The top 100 companies by market capitalization in the Shenzhen market that have pre-disclosed their 2025 performance are expected to achieve a combined net profit of approximately 2,056.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.51% [1] Group 2 - In the Shenzhen market, 307 out of 629 newly listed companies under the registration system have pre-disclosed their 2025 performance, with 183 companies expected to be profitable, which is 59.61% of the pre-disclosed companies [2] - The number of companies expected to incur losses is 124, indicating that the proportion of loss-making companies in the registration system may be below 20% [2] - Notably, companies like China Uranium Industry and Jiangbolong are expected to achieve profits exceeding 1 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - In the Shenzhen market, 18 out of 28 industries are expected to report positive net profits, with significant growth in sectors such as machinery and basic chemicals, which are projected to achieve net profits of 84.85 billion yuan and 123.51 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The electronics and communication sectors are expected to see a growth rate exceeding 50% for the second consecutive year, while industries like non-ferrous metals and textiles are expected to turn losses into profits [3] - The non-ferrous metals industry is projected to achieve a net profit of 328.30 billion yuan, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [3] Group 4 - The computer, communication, and electronics sectors in the Shenzhen market are expected to achieve a combined net profit of 760.33 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 155.32% [4] - Within these sectors, the consumer electronics industry is projected to achieve a net profit of 193.85 billion yuan, a growth of 36.11% [4] - The communication equipment sector is expected to see a significant increase in net profit, projected at 240.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 212.39% [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the performance and characteristics of various indices tracking the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (科创板) in China, highlighting the focus on high-tech sectors such as semiconductors, medical devices, and software development [2][3] - The Sci-Tech 50 ETF tracks the Sci-Tech 50 Index, which consists of 50 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, with over 65% of its composition in the semiconductor sector and nearly 80% in hard technology sectors [2] - The Sci-Tech 100 ETF follows the Sci-Tech 100 Index, comprising 100 stocks with medium market capitalization, focusing on small and medium-sized innovative enterprises, with over 75% of its composition in electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical industries [2][3] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech 200 ETF tracks the Sci-Tech 200 Index, which includes 200 stocks with smaller market capitalization, emphasizing growth potential in small-cap innovative companies, with a significant portion in the electronics sector [2] - The Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index ETF covers all stocks listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, focusing on core industries such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, encompassing all 17 primary industries on the board [3] - The Sci-Tech Growth ETF tracks the Sci-Tech Growth Index, which consists of 50 stocks with high growth rates in revenue and net profit, with over 65% of its composition in the electronics and communication sectors [3]

Overall Performance - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) shows a positive trend in 2025 earnings, with 57.58% of the 1714 companies reporting improved or increased profits, totaling a net profit of 820.09 billion yuan, an increase of 155.67 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - Among the top 100 companies by market capitalization, all 40 companies that disclosed earnings are expected to be profitable, with a combined net profit of 2056.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 66.51% [2] New Listings Performance - New companies under the registration system are performing well, with 59.61% of the 307 companies expected to be profitable, resulting in a total net profit of 196.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.11% [3] - The proportion of companies expected to report losses is projected to be below 19.71%, indicating strong growth potential among new listings [3] Industry Performance - 64% of the 28 non-financial and non-real estate industries are expected to report positive net profits, with significant growth in sectors like electronics and communications, which have seen profit increases exceeding 50% for two consecutive years [4] - The machinery and basic chemical industries are expected to achieve net profits of 84.85 billion yuan and 123.51 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 200.07% and 284.56% [4] 3C Industry Growth - The computer, communication, and electronics sectors are projected to achieve a combined net profit of 760.33 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 155.32%, driven by AI and recovering consumer demand [5] - The consumer electronics sector is expected to report a net profit of 193.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.11%, while the communication equipment sector is anticipated to see a net profit of 240.76 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 212.39% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign institutions are optimistic about China's market outlook for 2026, citing strong manufacturing, exports, and improving corporate profits as key factors for economic resilience [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3.3%, with China's growth forecast increased by 0.3 percentage points [2]. - China's economy is expected to maintain a "dual-track growth" pattern, with weak domestic demand recovery and strong exports continuing [2]. - Exports are projected to grow at around 5% in 2026, driven by China's manufacturing competitiveness and undervalued currency [2]. Consumer Trends - Foreign investors have strong expectations regarding China's consumption policies, with government consumption expected to accelerate, potentially offsetting weak personal consumption [3]. - Fiscal policy is anticipated to remain "proactive and stable," with a fiscal deficit around 4% and a slight increase in local government special bond quotas to support key infrastructure investments [3]. Corporate Profitability - Corporate profits are expected to continue recovering, with significant improvements noted in traditional sectors such as materials, finance, and industry [3]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rebound, positively impacting corporate profitability in a manufacturing-driven economy [3]. Investment Focus - Foreign capital is increasingly focused on sectors such as AI, aerospace, and healthcare, with a structural emphasis on specific sectors like aviation and semiconductor industries [5]. - The Chinese government’s support for domestic AI models and chip manufacturing is expected to bolster technology stocks [5]. AI and Power Sector - The power sector is identified as the most certain investment direction within AI, driven by the need for sufficient energy supply for technological growth [6]. - The anticipated power shortages in the U.S. may lead to increased demand for Chinese-manufactured power equipment, enhancing investment opportunities in this area [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [23] Core Insights - The North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 22.508 billion yuan on February 4, an increase of 0.958 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1,538.571, down 0.71% [1][7] - The market exhibited characteristics of "few leading stocks declining, many individual stocks diverging," with notable rebounds in undervalued stocks like Kaiter Co., while weighted stocks like Liancheng CNC dragged down the index [3] - The report highlights ongoing positive factors for the North Exchange market, including policy support from the central bank for technology and green sectors, and successful IPOs of national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises [3] Market Review - On February 4, among 292 companies listed on the North Exchange, 113 stocks rose, 9 remained flat, and 170 declined [15] - The top five gainers were *ST Yunchuang (24.1%), Haitai New Energy (14.1%), Oputai (13.0%), Kaiter Co. (8.7%), and Tress (8.4%) [15] - The top five decliners were Liancheng CNC (-9.1%), Tianli Composite (-8.8%), Meibang Technology (-7.6%), Meideng Technology (-6.9%), and Liujin Technology (-5.8%) [15] Important News - Elon Musk's teams from SpaceX and Tesla are exploring China's photovoltaic industry, with the Tesla team currently in the factory inspection phase and SpaceX having placed orders with a leading heterojunction equipment manufacturer [2][17] - The first satellite launch technology facility for commercial aerospace has been established, which is expected to double the efficiency of single-rocket launches and reduce network costs by over 30% [2][18] Company Announcements - Yizhi Magic Yam announced the completion of a share buyback of 17,521 shares, accounting for 0.0170% of the total share capital before the buyback [19] - Tress plans to repurchase shares primarily to reduce registered capital, with a total repurchase amount between 10 million and 20 million yuan, representing 0.41%-0.82% of the current total share capital [20]

Group 1: Company Overview and Market Position - Shenzhen Keda Technology Co., Ltd. has achieved significant growth in its overseas data center business, with overseas revenue slightly exceeding domestic revenue as of 2025 [2] - The company has established stable ODM partnerships with top global power manufacturers, covering key markets in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia [2] - The company is optimistic about growth in 2026 and beyond, focusing on expanding its presence in North America and Australia while strengthening its existing advantages in Europe and Asia-Pacific [2] Group 2: Energy Storage Business Strategy - The company's energy storage business has developed a three-pronged strategy: "technical support - product matrix - global channels," becoming a core growth driver [3] - In overseas markets, the company targets mature markets like Europe for efficient order delivery and market expansion, while also entering emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [3] - Domestically, the focus is on commercial energy storage, grid-side storage, and integrated solar-storage charging projects to enhance market position and competitive advantage [3] Group 3: Profitability and Competitive Advantage - The data center business maintains strong profitability due to advantages in technology, product competitiveness, customer structure, and global supply chain [3] - The company has a clear development path to sustain profitability amidst industry competition, including ongoing technology upgrades and expanding into new markets [4] - A strategic focus on deepening ODM customer collaborations and extending from single products to comprehensive solutions aims to enhance customer loyalty and business value [4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 策略专题研究 26 年 A 股业绩亮点有哪些？——2026 年牛市展望系列 4 核心结论：①25 年 A 股盈利边际企稳，主要动力源于整体企业的降本、以及 上市公司层面新经济的拉动已超过老经济的拖累。②宏微观基本面出现脱 钩，意味着传统盈利预测模型效果阶段性下降，定量模型显示中性假设下 26 年 A 股盈利望增长约 10%。③结构上，26 年科技及高端制造或仍维持较明显 增长，此外 A 股企业盈利的点状改善有望往其他行业扩散，例如消费地产。 25 年 A 股上市公司盈利已在企稳，其主因成本压降，内生性动能仍偏弱。 从整体情况看，全部 A 股盈利于 25 年确认企稳回升趋势。同时，全部 A 股 净资产收益率自 22 年以来首次出现企稳。剔除金融两油企业后，其复苏改 善更为明显，ROE 同样边际企稳。从盈利回升的驱动看，这主要源自成本压 降，内生性动能或仍偏弱。拆分净利润增速看，动力或主要来自于整体企业 降费增效，销售毛利率同比仍承压，净利率同比上行主因企业控费增效；其 收入端贡献相对有限，整体复苏节奏仍偏慢。从 ROE 拆分看，其企稳主因净 利润率回升，但上市公司扩表意 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong domestic demand for power equipment, driven by the rapid growth of new energy installations, and highlights the potential for overseas expansion and AIDC development [5][7][9] Group 1: Industry Overview - Since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, power investment has surged due to the rapid deployment of new energy sources, with power generation investment reaching CNY 1.73 trillion by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 27% from 2020 to 2025 [21] - The investment in the power grid is expected to reach CNY 2.4 trillion during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a significant increase in investment planned for the 15th Five-Year Plan, potentially reaching CNY 4 trillion [6][71] - The demand for key equipment such as transformers and switchgear remains strong, with a stable competitive landscape, while the high-voltage direct current (HVDC) projects are expected to see a recovery in demand [30][39] Group 2: Domestic Market Outlook - The report forecasts a rebound in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) bidding and construction, with a focus on smart meters and distribution networks in 2026 [6][72] - The smart meter market is anticipated to recover as new standards are implemented, with a significant increase in bidding volume and prices expected in 2026 [48][82] - The competitive landscape for smart meters is evolving, with leading companies expanding their product lines and market reach, particularly in overseas markets [81][82] Group 3: Overseas Market Outlook - The global demand for power equipment is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increase in new energy installations and the replacement of aging equipment, with China's leading companies poised to capitalize on these opportunities [7][58] - The report notes that from 2021 to 2025, China's transformer exports are projected to reach CNY 621 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.8% [62] - The report highlights that the global average annual investment in power grids is expected to rise from USD 310 billion (2016-2022) to USD 500 billion (2023-2030), indicating a robust market for Chinese companies [7][58] Group 4: AIDC Market Outlook - The AIDC market is projected to exceed CNY 410 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 39% from 2024 to 2030, driven by the increasing demand for efficient power distribution systems [8] - The report anticipates that 2026 will mark a significant year for the application of 800V HVDC/SST technology in both domestic and international markets [8] - The evolution of AIDC power distribution methods is expected to create new opportunities, particularly in North America and emerging markets [8]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 策略专题研究 26 年 A 股业绩亮点有哪些？——2026 年牛市展望系列 4 核心观点 策略研究·策略专题 | 证券分析师：吴信坤 | 证券分析师：余培仪 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-61761046 | 021-61761040 | | | wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn | yupeiyi@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980525120001 | S0980526010001 | | | 基础数据 | | | | 中小板/月涨跌幅(%) | | 8526.31/3.18 | | 创业板/月涨跌幅(%) | | 3311.51/3.38 | | AH 股价差指数 | | 119.27 | | A 股总/流通市值 (万亿元) | | 101.97/93.33 | | 市场走势 | | | 核心结论：①25 年 A 股盈利边际企稳，主要动力源于整体企业的降本、以及 上市公司层面新经济的拉动已超过老经济的拖累。②宏微观基本面出现脱 钩，意味着传统盈利预测模型效果阶段性下降，定量模型显示中性假设下 26 年 A ...