Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have respective ten-year PE percentile ranks of 99.71%, 93.91%, and 49.4% as of January 23, 2026 [17] - The market temperature indicator reflects a mixed sentiment with a total value of 100% based on the PE percentile ranks [17] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors on January 23, 2026, include: - Power Equipment: +3.50% - Non-ferrous Metals: +2.65% - National Defense and Military Industry: +2.73% [2][17] - The sectors with the largest declines are: - Media: -0.71% - Household Appliances: -0.90% - Steel: -1.52% [2][17] Fund Flows - The sectors with the highest net inflows are: - Power Equipment: 8.977 billion - Non-ferrous Metals: 4.552 billion - Media: 2.173 billion [2][19] - The sectors with the largest net outflows are: - Communication: -7.992 billion - Electronics: -6.350 billion - Machinery: -5.077 billion [2][19] ETF Performance - The following ETFs have shown significant performance: - Green Energy ETF: +3.68% with a six-month increase of 37.06% [19] - General Aviation ETF: +3.67% with a six-month increase of 32.93% [19] - Non-ferrous Metals ETF: +3.37% with a six-month increase of 84.40% [19] Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have recently surpassed 5000 USD per ounce, driven by factors such as U.S. fiscal risks and strong demand for gold from global central banks [21] - The Non-ferrous Metals ETF has also seen a significant increase, reflecting the bullish sentiment in the gold market [21] Industry Growth Projections - The commercial aerospace market in China is projected to reach approximately 2.3 trillion RMB by 2024, with an annual compound growth rate of 22.5% from 2015 to 2024, significantly higher than the global average [21]

作为以追求超额收益为主要目标的基金品类，主动权益基金的相关动向备受市场关注。随着公募基金 2025年四季报披露完毕，主动权益基金的规模、收益、重仓行业等最新情况一一揭晓。 整体来看，2025年第四季度，主动权益基金维持较高的股票仓位运作，价值风格的主动权益基金表现更 优。持仓A股方面，电子、医药生物和电力设备为主动权益基金前三大重仓行业，中际旭创、新易盛、 宁德时代为其前三大重仓个股。 价值风格表现更优 天相投顾统计数据显示，截至2025年末，主动权益基金（积极投资股票基金、偏股混合基金、灵活配置 混合基金）规模为3.91万亿元。其中，偏股混合基金在产品数量和产品规模上均占据主导地位，产品数 量为2770只（按主份额统计），产品规模达2.41万亿元，在主动权益基金总规模中占比超61%。 相较于2025年三季度末，2025年末主动权益基金规模缩水1657亿元。结合新发基金数据来看，主动权益 基金整体规模的缩水或与权益市场的波动有关。2025年第四季度，主动权益基金新发产品112只，新发 产品规模为570.83亿元，与2025年三季度新发基金数量和规模基本持平。其中，偏股混合基金仍是"主 力军"，新发产品数量和规 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold price has surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, with institutions predicting it could rise to $6600 [2] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to U.S. President Trump's policies reshaping international relations and investors fleeing sovereign bonds and foreign exchange markets [2] - Last week, gold prices increased by 8.5%, driven by a weakening dollar, which has made gold and silver cheaper for global buyers [2] Group 2 - In the past two weeks, stock ETFs have seen a net outflow of nearly 500 billion yuan, with significant redemptions in broad-based ETFs [3] - The trading volume of stock ETFs has surged, with some broad-based ETFs reaching record highs since their inception [3] Group 3 - The semiconductor sector in A-shares has been active in mergers and acquisitions, with several companies announcing related plans and progress [8] Group 4 - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a talent shortage, with investors with relevant experience being highly sought after [9] - The market is facing a significant gap in experienced commercial aerospace investors, leading firms to recruit candidates with adjacent experience [9] Group 5 - Global commodity markets are entering a new super cycle, with fund managers strategically increasing allocations to non-ferrous and chemical products [10] - Factors such as global monetary expansion, a credit crisis in the dollar, and geopolitical conflicts are contributing to this anticipated cycle [10]

Macroeconomic Highlights - The Ministry of Commerce held a roundtable meeting with British-funded enterprises, attended by representatives from 30 British companies and associations, addressing their concerns [1] - The January PMI data will be released on January 31, with December's PMI at 50.1%, marking a 0.9 percentage point increase and entering the expansion zone after eight months below 50% [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued guidelines for public offering securities investment fund performance benchmarks, effective from March 1, 2026, to enhance investor protection and fund management [1] Securities and Futures Market - The CSRC expanded the range of futures market products, adding 14 new futures and options, including nickel and lithium carbonate [2] - Adjustments were made to the price limits and margin requirements for nickel and other futures contracts [2] Corporate News - Fenglong Co. and Jiamei Packaging will suspend trading due to stock price fluctuations [11][12] - Bayi Steel may face delisting risk [13] - Hunan Gold plans to acquire 100% equity of two companies and will resume trading on January 26 [14] - Yongjie New Materials intends to acquire 100% and 95% equity of two companies [15] - Huadong Heavy Machinery received a contract from India's Adani Group for a smart port equipment project [16] Financial Performance Forecasts - Xian Dao Intelligent expects a net profit increase of 424.29% to 529.15% in 2025 [17] - Zhongwei Semiconductor anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 107.55% in 2025 [17] - Yuyuan Holdings forecasts a loss for the 2025 fiscal year [17] - Jinchuan Gold expects a net profit of 122 million to 182 million yuan in 2025, indicating a turnaround [17]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a divergence in capital sentiment last week, with small-cap stocks leading in gains, and industry rotation continuing. The focus is on the elasticity of capital and the direction of future rotations [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since mid-January, the outflow of capital from broad-based ETFs has been relatively high, but there are still inflows from insurance funds and arbitrage demands from investors, indicating ongoing market momentum [1] - The rotation direction may gradually shift from thematic investments to sectors with performance validation, as historically, industries with sustained recovery capabilities during earnings forecast disclosures tend to yield excess returns [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - Current recovery signals are primarily concentrated in price increase chains, high-end manufacturing, and AI-related sectors. Specific attention is recommended for power equipment, basic chemicals, and semiconductor equipment, with a moderate increase in allocation towards cyclical dividends [1]

Market Overview - The three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4136.16, up 0.33% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.79% to 14439.66, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.45% to 4702.50 [2] - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.63% to 3349.50, and the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.78% to 1553.71 [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electric Equipment (3.50%), Nonferrous Metals (2.73%), and Defense Industry (2.65%) [3] - The sectors with the poorest performance were Communication (-1.52%), Banking (-0.90%), and Coal (-0.76%) [3] - Concept indices such as BC Battery (8.56%) and Perovskite Battery (8.24%) showed strong gains, while Corn (-0.14%) and Soybeans (-0.10%) lagged [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by multiple favorable factors, including the central bank's commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy [4][6] - The recent decrease in the re-lending and re-discount rates indicates potential for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates this year [6] - The improvement in macroeconomic conditions and corporate earnings recovery are seen as core drivers for the market's mid-term upward movement [6] - Recommended sectors for investment include Oil and Petrochemicals, Construction Decoration, Nonferrous Metals, TMT, and Coal [6]

晨会纪要（R3） 晨会纪要 2026 年 01 月 26 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 4136.16 | 0.33 | | 深证成指 | 14439.66 | 0.79 | | 创业板指 | 3349.50 | 0.63 | | 科创 50 | 1553.71 | 0.78 | | 北证 50 | 1588.66 | 3.82 | | 沪深 300 | 4702.50 | -0.45 | 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -6% 4% 14% 24% 34% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 上证指数 沪深300 | 何晨 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 | | | hechen@hnchasing.com | | | 胡跃才 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530525070001 | | | huyuecai@hnchasing.com | | 晨会聚焦 一、财信研究观点 【债券研究】债券市场综述 二、重要财经资讯 ...

中金公司张峻栋认为，美日国债风暴可能倒逼美国联储开启YCC，全球流动性宽松预期增强。目 前美元贬值周期将利好人民币兑美元汇率，同时助推中国资产的吸引力。资本市场结构性机会最 显著，建议布局A股和港股，尤其是全球资金低配的中国市场；此外，有色金属在弱美元周期中 表现或相对突出。 2.万家基金：通缩逆转或带来市场风格切换 【 摘要 】中金公司张峻栋认为，美日国债风暴可能倒逼美国联储开启YCC，助推中国资产的吸 引力。万家基金叶勇指出，2026年有望走出通缩格局，PPI转正将促资产价格回升和顺周期板块 回暖。 一、焦点锐评 1．中际旭创成公募基金第一大重仓股 公募基金2025年四季报披露收官。Wind数据显示，中际旭创超越宁德时代成为公募基金第一大市 值重仓股，新易盛居第三。当季，公募基金加大了对焦电子、电力设备等核心赛道布局。截至 2025年底，公募基金市场总规模接近37万亿元，续创历史新高。 【解读】银河证券杨超分析称，2025年第四季度末，股票仓位环比下降1.40个百分点至84.22%， 依然处于2005年以来历史高位水平。其中，A股在资产配置中的占比延续上行，上升0.66个百分 点至72.18%。整体来看， ...

Group 1 - The capital market is active, with brokers conducting research on A-share companies to identify new opportunities, focusing on sectors like electronics and machinery [1][2] - A total of 440 A-share companies have been researched by brokers this year, with the electronics and machinery sectors leading in numbers, each having over 60 companies [2][3] - The power equipment sector has gained significant attention, with the State Grid Corporation announcing a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan for the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan [2][3] Group 2 - Over 1,000 A-share companies have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts or reports, prompting brokers to adjust ratings and target prices for several stocks [4][5] - Notable companies such as Baiwei Storage and Jianghuai Automobile have received rating upgrades due to strong performance forecasts, with Baiwei expected to achieve a net profit of 850 million to 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 427% to 520% [5] - Brokers are focusing on structural opportunities in the stock market, particularly in technology growth and resource sectors, as the market is expected to transition to performance-driven growth [6][7] Group 3 - Brokers are particularly interested in the technology growth sector, emphasizing areas such as AI, semiconductor, and optical electronics, with companies like Kaisheng Technology and Baiwei Storage receiving significant attention [3][7] - The chemical sector has also seen increased research activity, with companies like Runfeng and Water Technology being researched by over 20 brokers [2][3] - The market outlook for 2026 suggests a potential revaluation of Chinese assets, with a focus on technology innovation and resource repricing as key investment themes [8]

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is on the performance and trends of actively managed equity funds, highlighting their significant stock positions and preference for value style investments [1][2][4] - As of the end of 2025, the total scale of actively managed equity funds reached 3.91 trillion yuan, with equity mixed funds dominating both in number (2,770 products) and scale (2.41 trillion yuan), accounting for over 61% of the total [1][2] - The number of new actively managed equity fund products launched in Q4 2025 was 112, with a total scale of 570.83 billion yuan, maintaining stability compared to Q3 2025 [2] Group 2 - The top three sectors favored by actively managed equity funds as of the end of 2025 were electronics, pharmaceuticals and biology, and power equipment, with the electronics sector having the highest holding ratio at 23.76% [4] - The top three individual stocks held by actively managed equity funds were Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Ningde Times [4] - The overall performance of actively managed equity funds in Q4 2025 was weaker compared to Q3 2025, although flexible allocation mixed funds outperformed the CSI 300 index with a quarterly return of 0.26% [2][3] Group 3 - The stock positions of actively managed equity funds remained high in Q4 2025, with equity investment funds at 90.54%, equity mixed funds at 87.82%, and flexible allocation mixed funds at 74.20% [3] - The market outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of a shift from valuation-driven growth to fundamental-driven growth as corporate earnings stabilize [5][6] - The current low interest rate environment enhances the attractiveness of equity assets, with potential for significant capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6]