每经AI快讯，方大特钢12月30日晚间发布公告称，公司第九届第九次董事会会议于2025年12月30日以 现场和通讯表决相结合的方式召开。会议审议了《关于预计2026年度日常关联交易事项的议案》等文 件。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——2025十大财经新闻出炉！护航、酣战、变局、狂飙分别指向哪些大事件？ （记者 张明双） ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 30 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3300 元（-），北京敬业 3150 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3280 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3190 元（+10）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面出现下跌，但动力煤价格止跌企稳，导致煤焦依然领涨，钢材现货 成交整体一般偏弱，刚需低价拿货为主。上周钢联数据公布，五大材继续减产，但减 产速度有所放缓，受利润水平的修复螺纹和热卷均有所增产；钢材总库存加速去化， 社库去化速度比厂库更快，钢材仍处于去库周期；受季节性影响建材表需转弱，而热 卷受家电企业年末补库及出口冲量影响表需仍然增长，12 月整体钢材需求表现尚可； 原料端煤矿供应小幅增长，但价格止跌企稳，pb 粉结构性短缺问题尚未解决，进口利 润亏损支撑铁矿价格，钢材成本存在支撑，月底铁 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Author: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group - Date: December 30, 2025 - Focus: Colored Metals Sector Cross-Sectional Momentum Reversal [2] 2. Core View - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities has changed little this week. The factor intensity of the colored metals and precious metals sectors has slightly declined, while that of the agricultural products sector has slightly increased. Currently, the cross-sectionally stronger sectors are colored metals and black metals, and the weaker one is agricultural products [3]. - In terms of strategy net worth, different factors have different trends in different periods, and the comprehensive signals vary among different commodities [5][10][13][15]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1 Commodity Sector Analysis - **Colored Metals**: The short - term momentum of the colored metals sector continues to rise, with a certain reversal in the term structure. Copper and alumina are weak in the cross - section. The time - series momentum of gold rises slightly, and the silver position shows a marginal decline [3]. - **Black Metals**: The time - series momentum of the black metals sector shows a marginal recovery, the cross - sectional differentiation narrows, and the positions of coking coal and coke remain high [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The short - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemicals sector recovers, and soda ash is in the cross - sectionally short end [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The cross - sectional differentiation of oilseeds and meals narrows, the overall time - series momentum recovers, but the position does not change significantly [3]. 3.2 Factor Performance and Strategy Net Worth - **Factor Performance Table 1**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | 0.02 | 0.02 | | Demand | - 0.03 | - 0.31 | | Inventory | 0.05 | 0.51 | | Spread | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | 0.04 | 0.05 | [4] - **Strategy Net Worth 1**: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.03%, the inventory factor increased by 0.05%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. In terms of fundamental factors, the supply side turns neutral, the demand side is long, the inventory side is long but with weakened intensity, and the spread side is neutral [5]. - **Factor Performance Table 2**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Pinduoduo | 0.00 | 0.79 | | Demand | 0.00 | 1.12 | | Inventory | 0.03 | - 0.49 | | Spread | - 0.03 | 0.25 | | Profit | - 0.40 | 1.62 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | - 0.26 | 0.79 | [8] - **Strategy Net Worth 2**: Last week, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.03%, the spread factor weakened by 0.03%, the profit factor decreased by 0.40%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. The supply side turns long, the demand side is long, the inventory side continues to be long, and the profit side continues to be short [15]. - **Factor Performance Table 3**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Singh | 0.00 | - 0.37 | | Inventory | 0.00 | 0.08 | | Spread | - 0.09 | - 0.09 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | - 0.04 | - 0.09 | [10] - **Strategy Net Worth 3**: Last week, the spread factor declined. The comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week the comprehensive signal turns long [10]. - **Factor Performance Table 4 (Iron Ore)**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | - 0.22 | 0.55 | | Demand | - 1.54 | - 1.12 | | Inventory | 1.47 | 0.77 | | Spread | 1.76 | 1.02 | | Aggregate of Major Categories | 0.27 | 0.59 | [13] - **Strategy Net Worth 4 (Iron Ore)**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the demand factor weakened by 1.54%, the inventory factor increased by 1.47%, the spread factor strengthened by 1.02%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.27%. This week, the comprehensive signal turns from long to short. The supply side turns long but the signal remains neutral, the demand side's long feedback continues to weaken and the signal remains neutral, the inventory side turns long and the signal remains neutral, and the spread side's signal turns long [13]. - **Factor Performance Table 5 (Aluminum)**: | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | 0.09 | | | Aggregate of Major Categories | - 0.04 | - 0.09 | [13] - **Strategy Net Worth 5 (Aluminum)**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.09%, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week the comprehensive signal turns long. The supply side turns long, the demand side's long feedback continues to weaken, the inventory side turns long, and the spread side's signal turns long [13] 3.3 Sector Momentum and Other Indicators | Sector | Momentum Time - Series | Momentum Cross - Section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black Metals | 0.21 | - 0.29 | - 0.85 | 1.25 | | Colored Metals | 0.06 | 0.93 | - 2.2 | - 0.64 | | Energy and Chemicals | 0.37 | 0.57 | - 0.02 | 0.16 | | Agricultural Products | - 0.45 | 0.69 | 0.93 | 1.37 | | Stock Index | 0.31 | - 0.1 | - 0.32 | 0.48 | | Other | 0 | | | 0.05 | [6]

中信股份(00267)发布公告，南京钢铁股份有限公司(600282.SH)董事会于2025年12月29日收到公司副总 裁、总工程师楚觉非先生递交的书面辞职报告。因达到退休年龄，楚觉非先生辞去南钢股份（600282） 副总裁、总工程师职务。 ...

暴跌10.9%，最近官方报道，咱们的钢厂减产已经严重超过了预期，每产一吨就要亏损91元，在这样的情况下，十分不利于咱们的钢产业发展，面对这如此 严峻的形势，咱们的钢产业又该如何发展？ 全球钢铁市场正上演一幕令人费解的场景，11月份，中国粗钢产量同比下跌10.9%，这一跌幅创下近年来的历史峰值，彰显国内钢铁行业正经历深度调整。 诡异的是，产量大幅收缩的同时，中国钢铁出口却走出逆势上涨行情，同比增幅达到8%，产量与出口的反向背离，打破了行业常规运行逻辑，背后暗藏的 产业困境与转型压力值得深究。 摩根士丹利12月中旬发布的最新行业报告，精准点破了这一悖论的核心。报告指出，国内钢铁需求已陷入彻底恶化状态，过剩产能在本土市场找不到消化出 口，只能被迫转向海外寻求出路。 这波出口增长绝非行业景气度提升的信号，反而折射出国内需求疲软下的产能外溢困境。 《中国冶金报》此前刊发的调研数据显示，当钢铁行业出现"产量跌、出口增"的背离时，往往伴随国内终端需求的大幅萎缩。 从全球视野俯瞰，11月全球钢铁产量同比下跌4.6%，跌幅创下年内最低水平，这一全球数据的下滑，几乎完全由中国市场拖累所致。 世界其他地区的钢铁产量非但没有下跌，反 ...

Market Overview - The steel sector experienced a decline of 0.72% on December 30, with Wujin Stainless Steel leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12, showing no change, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 [1] Individual Stock Performance - Major steel stocks showed varied performance, with Maanshan Iron & Steel slightly up by 0.24% at a closing price of 4.20, while Wujin Stainless Steel fell significantly by 8.86% to 9.26 [2] - Other notable declines included Angang Steel down by 0.78% to 2.53 and Shougang Corporation down by 0.61% to 4.90 [1][2] Trading Volume and Value - Maanshan Iron & Steel had a trading volume of 752,800 shares with a transaction value of 317 million yuan, while Wujin Stainless Steel had a volume of 339,700 shares and a value of 326 million yuan [1][2] - The overall steel sector saw a net outflow of 119 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 135 million yuan [2][3] Fund Flow Analysis - Key stocks like Hebei Steel and Baotou Steel saw net inflows from main funds of 16.26 million yuan and 12.10 million yuan respectively, while Wujin Stainless Steel experienced a net outflow of 22.06 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Retail investors showed a preference for stocks like Baotou Steel, which had a net inflow of 24.11 million yuan, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [3]

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（来源：中国工业报） ■中国工业报编辑部 国家繁荣，民族昌盛，没有工业提供强大的物质技术基础几无可能。 站在"十四五"即将收官、"十五五"序幕待启的重要节点，深情挥别2025，我们对工业强则国强、工业兴 则民富有了更真切的感受，发自内心深处的民族自豪感和自信心拉满，昂扬奋进的中国工业作了最鲜活 的注解。 今天的中国工业，产业体系完整，产业生态坚韧，产业创新勃发。一大批关键核心技术和战略急需基础 产品实现工程化、产业化突破，集成电路、工业母机、医疗装备等重点产业链自主可控水平稳步提升， 高端化、智能化、绿色化、融合化持续推进，向新而行的路线图清晰明了，新质生产力不断取得新进 展，工业高质量发展的强劲动力激越澎湃。 江山不言，江山作证。 从九三阅兵亮相的"东风-5C"液体洲际战略核导弹打击范围覆盖全球，到福建舰开展首次海上实兵训 练、四川舰完成首次航行试验，大国重器铸就和平盾牌护卫华夏安康。 从雅下水电站穿透喜马拉雅断裂带，零生态阻断深地能源革命，到世界第一高桥花江峡谷大桥串起地 球"裂缝"，国产超级装备精准构建人与自然和谐共生标杆。 从神舟二十号航天员乘组搭乘神舟二十一号飞船安全返回，到短短16天完成神舟二十二 ...

情绪扰动叠加资金博弈，部分品种价格波动或加大 | 研 | | | | | | | | ——金属行业周报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 究 | 分析师： | | 张珂 | | S1150523120001 | | SAC NO： | 2025 年 12 月 30 | | 日 | | | | | | 钢铁 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | 有色金属 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | |  | | 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 | | | | | | | | | | 张珂 | | | | 钢铁：随着淡季的逐步深入，钢材需求改善空间不大，后续随着需求季节性走 | | | | | | | | | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 研究助理 | | | | | | | | | | | 铜：目前在高铜价的影 ...

2 现货市场 成文日期：20251225 报告周期: 日报 研究分析师：安致远（期货从业资格证号：F03143832；投资咨询证书号：Z0022799) 连指数目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 12 月 24 日,黑链指数以 112.33 点开盘,盘中震荡上行,最高 触及 112.92 点,最低探至 111.68 点,最终收于 112.66 点,环比上 一交易日微涨 0.3 点。总成交量 358.8 万手，环比减少 19.5 万手。 总持仓量降至 660.2 万手，较上一交易日减少 33232 手。 图 1：黑链指数分时图 风险揭示及免责声明 国金期货已取得中国证监会期货投资咨询业务资格的批复。本报告由国金期货有限责 任公司制作，未获得国金期货有限责任公司授权，任何单位和个人不得对本报告进行任何 形式的修改、复制和发布。 本文部分数据、图片、音频、视频均来源于网络搜索,版权归版权所有者所有,如有 侵权请联系我们。本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或我公司调研资料，我公司保证已经 审慎审核、甄别和判断信息内容,但由于信息获取和展示的局限性,我公司无法绝对保证 公开信息、第三方数据或调研对象提供材料的真实性、完整 ...