1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For steel products, short - term policy expectations support the market, but weak fundamentals limit the upside. Wait for policy implementation after the Two Sessions and inventory depletion speed [3] - For iron ore, non - mainstream ore shipments remain high, suppressing price upside. The Iran situation provides short - term support, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Iron water production may first decline and then rise due to the Two Sessions' production restrictions, and low - price restocking by steel mills provides a bottom support [22] - For coal and coke, from March to April, it is the terminal demand verification period. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic mine resumption" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [33] - For ferroalloys, short - term silicon manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but high inventories may lead to hedging. Silicon iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but its upside is limited by weak downstream fundamentals [50] - For soda ash, there are rumors of a major factory's overhaul. Supply may be affected, and inventory is better than expected. The upside of the price is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside requires inventory accumulation. The long - term supply is expected to be high [69] - For glass, actual demand has not returned, and the market is in the recovery period. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the price upside, and demand needs to be verified [93] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed slightly compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3131 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from March 3 [4] - **Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed. For instance, the rebar 01 - 05 month spread was 60 yuan/ton on March 4, up 2 yuan from March 3 [4] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions were reported. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 59 yuan/ton on March 4, up 1 yuan from March 3 [9] Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Non - mainstream ore shipments are high, and the Iran situation provides short - term support. Iron water production may first decline and then rise due to the Two Sessions' production restrictions, and low - price restocking by steel mills provides a bottom support [22] - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts decreased slightly compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 717.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from March 3 [23] - **Fundamentals**: Data on daily average iron water production, port throughput, and inventory were reported. For example, the daily average iron water production on February 27, 2026, was 233.28 tons, up 2.79 tons from the previous week [27] Coal and Coke - **Market Outlook**: From March to April, it is the terminal demand verification period. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected domestic mine resumption" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [33] - **Prices**: The month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 203.5 yuan/ton on March 4, down 5.5 yuan from March 3 [34] - **Spot and Profit**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and import profits were reported. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1520 yuan/ton on March 4, unchanged from March 3 [38] Ferroalloys - **Market Outlook**: Short - term silicon manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but high inventories may lead to hedging. Silicon iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but its upside is limited by weak downstream fundamentals [50] - **Data**: The daily data of silicon iron and silicon manganese, including basis, month - to - month spreads, and spot prices, were reported. For example, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 116 yuan/ton on March 3, down 2 yuan from March 2 [51] Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: There are rumors of a major factory's overhaul. Supply may be affected, and inventory is better than expected. The upside of the price is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside requires inventory accumulation. The long - term supply is expected to be high [69] - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. For example, the 05 contract closed at 1203 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from March 3 [70] - **Spot and Spreads**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and price spreads were reported. For example, the heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton on March 4, unchanged from March 3 [70] Glass - **Market Outlook**: Actual demand has not returned, and the market is in the recovery period. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the price upside, and demand needs to be verified [93] - **Prices**: On March 4, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts decreased. For example, the 05 contract closed at 1038 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from March 3 [94] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions were reported. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on February 27, 2026, was 103 [95]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting a collective rise in major indices and significant gains in raw material sectors such as chemicals, oil and gas, steel, and non-ferrous metals [2] - Predictions indicate that the market may enter a "two sessions market" characterized by "oscillating upward" trends starting from March 4, with sectors related to commodities, consumer demand, AI computing, and infrastructure beginning to gain momentum [2] Group 2 - The article presents data from the National Bureau of Statistics showing that in January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month but decreased by 1.4% year-on-year [3] - The analysis indicates that while consumer demand is recovering, the core CPI's mild increase reflects ongoing challenges in stabilizing domestic demand [3][4] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that rising prices signal a boost in demand, which can enhance corporate operating rates and stimulate investment expectations, thus serving as a positive signal for listed companies [5] - It is noted that persistent low PPI can dampen corporate investment enthusiasm, despite nominal interest rates being lowered, as actual financing costs remain high, affecting future expectations [12] Group 4 - The article outlines the need for proactive fiscal policies to drive demand, suggesting that fiscal spending should focus on public services and shortfall areas, while monetary policy should ensure relative liquidity [13][14] - It highlights the importance of increasing income levels for low-income groups to enhance consumption capacity, particularly through social security reforms [19] Group 5 - The article discusses the challenges of investment decline, attributing it to factors such as deep adjustments in the real estate sector, overcapacity in low-end manufacturing, and insufficient investment in high-end manufacturing [20] - It suggests that improving the business environment and encouraging private investment are crucial for reversing negative investment growth trends [20] Group 6 - The article mentions that the capital market's core attractions for 2026 lie in sectors driven by domestic demand, artificial intelligence, and new infrastructure, with a structural opportunity emerging from a new wave of technological innovation [22] - It notes that the recent bull market was driven by policy guidance and corrections of unreasonable pricing, with institutional investors playing a stabilizing role [22]

Steel Industry - The demand recovery in the steel sector post-holiday is expected to take time, with attention on the impact of self-imposed emission reductions by steel companies during the "Two Sessions" and related "anti-involution" policies [1][16] - In February 2026, the national steel industry PMI index was 45.4, indicating ongoing operational pressure, with a significant drop in output index to 44.1 and new order index to 39.5, reflecting weak supply and demand [16][19] - The total steel inventory increased by 43.19% to 18.26 million tons by February 27, 2026, indicating accumulated inventory pressure [27] Copper Industry - Domestic downstream enterprises are gradually resuming operations, but market demand remains limited, with high prices suppressing demand [1][36] - In December 2025, domestic refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.76%, while copper material production was 2.229 million tons, a decrease of 1.94% [36] - LME copper inventory increased by 44.99% to 253,700 tons, and SHFE copper inventory rose by 85.27% to 290,600 tons during the period from January 30 to February 27, 2026 [36][38] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector faced weak supply and demand in February, with a significant increase in domestic inventory and weak prices for electrolytic aluminum [1][43] - Domestic alumina production in December 2025 was 8.011 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.70%, while electrolytic aluminum production was 3.874 million tons, an increase of 2.87% [44] - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 6.09% to 465,600 tons, while SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 99.42% to 289,300 tons during the same period [44][46] Precious Metals - Gold prices initially dropped due to expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies but later rebounded due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies [1][52] - From January 30 to February 27, 2026, COMEX gold prices increased by 7.92% to $5,296.40 per ounce, while SHFE gold prices decreased by 1.16% to ¥1,147.90 per gram [52] Lithium Industry - The lithium sector is expected to see optimistic demand in March, with supply likely to remain tight, supporting high carbonate lithium prices [2][54] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 8.83% to ¥172,500 per ton during the period from January 30 to February 27, 2026 [54][55] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Rare earth prices have risen due to tight supply and strong holding sentiment among sellers, with the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 18.90% to ¥890,000 per ton [2][71] - The price of tungsten concentrate increased by 31.00% to ¥786,000 per ton during the same period [77]

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period will see the establishment of a dual control carbon management system in China, marking a significant shift in carbon market operations from auxiliary tools to core execution vehicles for carbon control [3][4][7] - The carbon market is evolving from a platform for operation to a central mechanism for emission reduction, with a focus on expanding coverage to key high-emission industries [11][12] - The carbon market's role is increasingly recognized as essential for achieving national emission reduction targets, with significant progress in regulatory frameworks and market mechanisms [4][12] Group 2 - The carbon information disclosure system is gradually being standardized, enhancing the transparency and quality of carbon data among listed companies [16][19] - The quality of carbon emission disclosures among listed companies is improving, with a notable increase in the disclosure rate of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in large-cap indices [19][24] - The trading activity in the national carbon market has reached new heights, with significant increases in transaction volumes and values, indicating a robust market environment [26][27] Group 3 - High carbon intensity industries such as steel and cement are showing opportunities for low-carbon transformation, with characteristics such as high market capitalization and low return on equity [12][19] - The performance of low-carbon combinations in high-emission sectors like cement and steel is demonstrating significant excess returns compared to high-carbon combinations [18][19] - The integration of carbon intensity factors into investment strategies is becoming increasingly relevant, with evidence suggesting that high-carbon strategies are yielding diminishing excess returns [18][19]

1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are mentioned in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The black metal market shows narrow - range fluctuations with low volatility. The short - term export expectation of steel is weak due to the US - Iran conflict, and the upcoming Two Sessions may affect the demand - side expectation. Although steel valuation is not high, the upward demand expectation is not strong. Pay attention to the support levels of 3020 yuan/ton for rebar and 3200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coil [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The short - term supply pressure still suppresses the iron ore price, and concerns about finished product exports may cause disturbances. The iron ore price may fluctuate widely in the range of 730 - 770. Pay attention to the recovery of terminal demand and the policies of the Two Sessions [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the short - term price is stable. The US - Iran conflict drives up energy commodities, leading to a rebound in coal - coke futures. It is recommended to view it with caution, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800. For coking coal, it is also recommended to view it as fluctuating upward with caution, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150 [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the short - term supply is tight. The price may face pressure when it rebounds to the export cost. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. For silicomanganese, the short - term price driver comes from manganese ore, and it is recommended to consider the 5 - 9 positive spread [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts show different changes. For example, the rebar 05 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton, while the hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while the cost of some steel products increased, and the profit of some products decreased. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase), and the output of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8 (-1.0% decrease). The inventory of five major steel products increased by 134.3 to 1846.1 (7.8% increase) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8 to 5.2 (17.4% increase), and the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 564.7 (5.4% increase). However, the apparent demand of rebar decreased by 7.6 to 33.6 (-18.5% decrease) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decline of about 0.1%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.5 (-2.4% decrease), and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.5 to 13.5 (12.5% increase) [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 19.8 to 3340.7 (0.6% increase) on a weekly basis, and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9 (-0.3% decrease). The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase), and the 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 52.7 to 298.5 (-15.0% decrease) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96 (0.9% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1 (-15.1% decrease) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices increased, such as the coke 05 contract increasing by 42 to 1694 (2.5% increase). Coking coal futures prices also increased, like the coking coal 05 contract increasing by 33 to 1127 (3.0% increase) [7]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 64.3 (0.9% increase), and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 7.9 to 980.0 (-0.8% decrease), and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 80.2 to 1079.1 (-7.4% decrease) [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The ferrosilicon main - contract closing price increased by 22 to 5786 (0.44% increase), and the silicomanganese main - contract closing price increased. Some spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also changed slightly [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 17 to 6036.6 (0.3% increase), and the production profit of some regions changed. The manganese ore price showed different trends, with the South African semi - carbonate showing a relatively strong performance [8]. Supply and Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon output increased by 0.9 to 9.8 (0.6% increase), and the weekly silicomanganese product increased by 0.4 to 19.7 (1.8% increase). The iron ore demand increased with the increase in pig iron output [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.1 to 7.0 (-1.6% decrease), and the inventory of 63 sample silicomanganese enterprises increased by 0.4 to 39.8 (0.9% increase) [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Black metals are trading in a narrow range with low volatility. The short - term export outlook for steel is weak due to the Iran - US conflict affecting shipping routes to the Persian Gulf. The upcoming Two Sessions may also interfere with demand expectations. Iron - water production is rising, and the inventory pressure is controllable. Raw material supply is abundant, and weak raw material prices may drag down steel prices. The reference support levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils are around 3020 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures main contract is oscillating. The 5 - 9 positive spread has widened significantly. Supply pressure persists as global iron ore shipments have increased and port arrivals are falling. Iron - water production is rising, but the resumption of production may be affected by the Two Sessions. The terminal demand recovery needs verification. The inventory situation requires attention. Short - term ore prices may fluctuate widely in the range of 730 - 770 [4]. Coke - Coke futures are oscillating upwards. The coking profit has recovered to near the break - even point after the price increase. After the holiday, coke production has increased slightly, and steel mills' iron - water production has rebounded from a low level. The overall inventory is slightly lower. Short - term coke prices are stable, and there are policy expectations during the Two Sessions. It is recommended to be cautious, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800 [7]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures are oscillating upwards. The spot price in Shanxi is weak, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuate with the futures. After the holiday, the demand for restocking is weak. Coal mines are resuming production, and the port inventory is high. The overall inventory is seasonally decreasing. It is recommended to view it with a slightly bullish bias and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150 [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon main contract continues to rise slightly. After the holiday, supply has increased slightly but remains at a low level compared to historical periods. Iron - water production is rising, and overall post - holiday demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, and the total inventory is moderately high. Short - term supply is tight, and price fluctuations are expected to intensify. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese main contract continues to rise. Manganese ore prices are strong, driving up the transaction price of silicomanganese. Supply has increased slightly, and iron - water production is rising. The overall post - holiday demand will continue to improve marginally. Manganese ore port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term price driver comes from manganese ore, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider the 5 - 9 positive spread [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions remained unchanged, while some futures contracts had small price changes. For example, the rebar 05 contract rose by 7 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract fell by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average iron - water production increased by 2.8 to 233.3, a 1.2% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased by 8.0 to 796.8, a 1.0% decrease. Rebar production decreased by 5.3 to 165.1, a 3.1% decrease [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 134.3 to 1846.1, a 7.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 84.6 to 800.6, an 11.8% increase, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 18.3 to 452.2, a 4.2% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8 to 5.2, a 17.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 564.7, a 5.4% increase. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 7.6 to 33.6, an 18.5% decrease, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 21.6 to 268.4, an 8.8% increase [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decline of about 0.1%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.5, a 2.4% decrease, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.5 to 13.5, a 12.5% increase [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9, a 0.3% decrease. The global shipments increased by 19.8 to 3340.7, a 0.6% increase. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 to 11964.7, an 8.2% increase [4]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average iron - water production increased by 2.8 to 233.3, a 1.2% increase. The 45 - port daily average dredging volume decreased by 52.7 to 298.5, a 15.0% decrease. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 162.1 to 6072.2, a 2.6% decrease, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 169.4 to 6817.7, a 2.4% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96, a 0.9% increase. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1, a 15.1% decrease. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 7.0 to 23.0, a 23.3% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - Coke futures prices increased. The coking profit improved. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6 to 64.3, a 0.9% increase, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average production decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.3% decrease. The total coke inventory decreased by 7.9 to 980.0, a 0.8% decrease [7]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures prices increased. The Mongolian coal price increased by 29 to 1181, a 2.5% increase. The daily average production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased significantly. The total coking coal inventory decreased seasonally [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon main contract price increased. The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased by 17 to 6036.6, a 0.3% increase. The weekly production increased by 0.1 to 0.9, a 0.6% increase. The demand decreased by 0.3 to 18, a 1.8% decrease. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.1 to 7.0, a 1.6% decrease [8]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese main contract price increased. The manganese ore price was strong. The weekly production increased by 0.4 to 19.7, a 1.8% increase. The demand decreased by 0.1 to 11.0, a 1.3% decrease. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.4 to 39.8, a 0.9% increase [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's steel demand is expected to gradually recover in March following the impact of the Spring Festival and the implementation of various policies [1][2] - In February, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the steel industry was reported at 46.7%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting a weak overall performance in the industry due to the holiday [1] - The China Steel Industry Association reported that in early February, key steel enterprises produced 19.46 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.946 million tons, which increased by 0.6% month-on-month [1] Group 2 - As the Spring Festival holiday ends, downstream construction and manufacturing activities are gradually resuming, leading to an expected gradual recovery in steel demand [1][2] - The analysis suggests that multiple positive factors, including full resumption of work after the holiday, increased infrastructure investment, ongoing recovery in manufacturing, and gradual restoration of exports, will support a steady rebound in steel demand [2] - Steel production is anticipated to increase steadily, supported by orderly resumption of production and demand recovery [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View - The steel price of finished products is expected to fluctuate. The current situation is that supply and demand are both weak, but the rise of coking coal at the raw material end provides some support. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, and the verification of demand has a significant impact on prices. As the Two Sessions approach, the macro - level will have a greater impact on prices [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents - **Production Restrictions in Tangshan**: Most steel mills in Tangshan have planned to reduce blast furnace production by 30% and sintering production by 30% - 50%. Some steel mills have blast furnace maintenance plans, mostly for 5 - 7 days. The blast furnace hot metal in the Tangshan market is expected to decline in early March and recover in mid - March, with a relatively limited overall impact [3]. - **Cost and Profit of Electric Arc Furnace Steel Mills**: On March 3, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,380 yuan/ton, with an average profit loss of 72 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit of 39 yuan/ton [3]. - **Real Estate Transaction Area**: From February 23 to March 1, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.3202 million square meters, a 3.5% increase compared with the week before the Spring Festival. The cumulative transaction area since the beginning of this year has decreased by 16.9% year - on - year [3].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：地缘局势动荡 铝价高位偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2026 年 3 月 4 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强运行。市场担忧中东冲突可能长期化，通胀担忧加 剧，进而使得美联储的降息预期延迟。据 CME"美联储观察"，美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 2.6%，维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Sideways, wait for basis to fall before entering cash-and-carry positions [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Gradually take profits on previous long positions, industrial clients hedge on rallies [3][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways, establish cash-and-carry positions on rallies [5][7] - Iron Ore: Enter short positions at resistance levels [6][7] 2. Core Views - The black sector is currently in a stage of weak supply and demand, with derivatives market fluctuations slightly leading the spot market. The overall inventory of steel products is neutral, but there is a differentiation among varieties. The inventory of building materials is at a historical low, while the inventory of plates and billets has returned to a historical high. The actual resumption of production by steel mills may be slow, and the market lacks strong demand expectations and confidence. Unilateral or trend trading opportunities are not recommended for now, but cash-and-carry positions can be operated based on the basis [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have rebounded due to supply disruptions and rising costs, but the fundamentals remain weak, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The upward space for prices is limited, and chasing long positions is not recommended [3] - The geopolitical situation continues to ferment, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke in the futures market, despite the first round of price cuts in the spot market. The supply of coking coal and coke has recovered faster than demand, and the downstream has the habit of reducing raw material inventory in March and April. Energy-related speculative short positions should be avoided, and long positions should be reduced in a timely manner. Industrial clients can establish cash-and-carry positions on the 05 contract [5] - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has intensified, causing market sentiment to resonate. There is a certain restocking expectation for iron ore, and it is not recommended to chase short positions at low levels. The impact of Australian hurricanes on prices is more likely to provide better selling points after a rebound. In the medium to long term, there is obvious pressure on the upside of iron ore prices [6] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - The spot market of steel is slowly starting, with weak and stable prices and poor speculative demand. The overall inventory of steel products is neutral, but there is a differentiation among varieties. The inventory of building materials is at a historical low, while the inventory of plates and billets has returned to a historical high. The actual resumption of production by steel mills may be slow, and the market lacks strong demand expectations and confidence. Unilateral or trend trading opportunities are not recommended for now, but cash-and-carry positions can be operated based on the basis [2] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have rebounded due to supply disruptions and rising costs, but the fundamentals remain weak, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The upward space for prices is limited, and chasing long positions is not recommended [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The geopolitical situation continues to ferment, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke in the futures market, despite the first round of price cuts in the spot market. The supply of coking coal and coke has recovered faster than demand, and the downstream has the habit of reducing raw material inventory in March and April. Energy-related speculative short positions should be avoided, and long positions should be reduced in a timely manner. Industrial clients can establish cash-and-carry positions on the 05 contract [5] Iron Ore - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has intensified, causing market sentiment to resonate. There is a certain restocking expectation for iron ore, and it is not recommended to chase short positions at low levels. The impact of Australian hurricanes on prices is more likely to provide better selling points after a rebound. In the medium to long term, there is obvious pressure on the upside of iron ore prices [6]