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从通道到枢纽:中资券商的港股大航海时代
市值风云· 2026-02-11 10:12
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has become the most comprehensive market for foreign capital to allocate Chinese assets, providing a "one-stop" opportunity for international investors to access China's growth [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2024, the Hong Kong stock market raised approximately HKD 87.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89% [4]. - In 2025, the market saw a significant surge in IPO fundraising, reaching HKD 2,856.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 224%, reclaiming the top position globally for IPO fundraising [4]. - The number of companies waiting for IPOs in Hong Kong has exceeded 350, indicating sustained capital vitality in the market [4]. Group 2: Sectoral Trends - In 2025, 117 companies successfully listed on the Hong Kong stock market, with new economy sectors like hard technology (27%), healthcare (23%), and new consumption (25%) becoming the main contributors [5][7]. - The traditional sectors such as infrastructure and real estate are gradually declining in proportion [5]. Group 3: Role of Chinese Securities Firms - The A+H listing model became a powerful engine for the Hong Kong IPO market in 2025, with 19 A-share companies raising nearly HKD 1.4 billion, contributing to nearly half of the total fundraising [8]. - Chinese securities firms have transitioned from participants to dominant players in the market, with a market share of approximately 56% among the top ten IPO underwriters [8][10]. - The number of licensed Chinese securities firms in Hong Kong has increased from 8 in 2007 to 111 by 2024, indicating significant growth in the sector [10]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages - Chinese securities firms leverage their "home advantage" and offer comprehensive end-to-end solutions, from identifying new economy companies for listing to providing seamless A+H share services [10]. - The case of CATL's secondary listing in Hong Kong exemplifies the shift of Chinese firms from "supporting roles" to "pricing leaders" in major IPOs [11][13]. - The independent service capability of Chinese securities firms is highlighted by the successful IPO of Sanhua Intelligent Controls, which did not hire foreign underwriters [13]. Group 5: Financial Performance - The brokerage industry is expected to see significant profit increases in 2026, with CITIC Securities projected to earn HKD 30.051 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.46% [18]. - Other firms like Guotai Junan and GF Securities are also expected to report substantial profit growth [18]. Group 6: Strategic Transformation - A trend of capital increase among Chinese securities firms is evident, with at least five firms announcing capital increases totaling nearly HKD 20 billion, marking a new high [20][21]. - This capital influx indicates a strategic shift towards higher-yield capital business, moving from a low-risk, low-return model to a more integrated service provider role [21][22]. - The Hong Kong market serves as a strategic training ground for Chinese securities firms to enhance their capabilities in pricing, market-making, and risk management [22][23].
国家能源局科技司司长刘德顺:谱写“十五五”高水平能源科技自立自强新篇章
Zhong Guo Dian Li Bao· 2026-02-11 09:34
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and innovation in the energy sector to achieve high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and beyond [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Goals and Framework - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to establish a new energy system and strengthen the country's energy capabilities, focusing on enhancing the overall effectiveness of the energy technology innovation system [2][4]. - The plan highlights the need for original innovation and tackling key core technologies to support the construction of a new energy system [2][3]. - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is crucial, with a focus on developing new productive forces based on the actual development stages of industries [2][4]. Group 2: Implementation and Focus Areas - The energy sector will prioritize the construction of a robust energy technology innovation system, optimizing the layout of research and development platforms [6][7]. - Major technological equipment breakthroughs will be pursued, including the assessment and approval of significant energy equipment [6][7]. - The implementation of national technology projects in the energy sector will be emphasized, with a focus on smart grid initiatives and clean coal utilization [6][7]. Group 3: New Industries and Standards - The cultivation of new industries, business models, and scenarios in the energy sector will be promoted, particularly through the integration of artificial intelligence [7]. - The development of new energy storage and hydrogen energy industries will be prioritized, with pilot projects and regional development initiatives [7]. - The establishment of a comprehensive energy standards system will be pursued to enhance international standards and support the transition to green energy [7].
滨海能源:源网荷储项目已完成一期规划大部分风机安装和输电线路工程
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Zhi Sheng· 2026-02-11 09:12
Core Viewpoint - Binhai Energy has made significant progress in its production capacity and strategic planning for future investments [1] Group 1: Production Capacity - The company has established a front-end production capacity of 50,000 tons, a graphitization capacity of 18,000 tons, and a finished product capacity of 40,000 tons [1] - An additional graphitization capacity of 40,000 tons is set to begin production shortly, which will bring the total capacities to 62,000 tons for front-end, 108,000 tons for graphitization, and 40,000 tons for finished products [1] Group 2: Project Development - The source network load storage project has completed most of the wind turbine installations and transmission line engineering for its first phase [1] - The company is following a phased investment and production approach in line with its overall strategic plan and market conditions [1] Group 3: Research and Development - Ongoing research and pilot testing of other battery materials will be coordinated with the Beijing Electrochemical Analysis Center, enhancing the company's collaborative R&D capabilities in the battery system [1]
美国疯狂出招背后:关税战只是幌子,真正战场早已转移!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-11 07:30
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the tariff war initiated by Trump is not the ultimate goal but rather a strategic maneuver to accumulate resources for a more significant confrontation [5][27][31] - The tariff war has been a means for the U.S. government to generate substantial fiscal revenue, despite the adverse effects on American citizens [5][27] - The U.S. has shifted its strategic focus, as evidenced by recent policies targeting specific sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence, indicating a desire to reshape the global economic landscape [8][30] Group 2 - The effectiveness of the tariff war against China has been limited, as evidenced by China's ability to adapt by relocating production to Southeast Asia, thus circumventing U.S. tariffs [13][15] - The U.S. has attempted to forge bilateral agreements to encourage other countries to purchase American components, but China has successfully established its production lines in these countries [15][17] - The U.S. aims to fill its fiscal deficit through the tariff war, with national debt rising from $23.64 trillion in 2014 to $36 trillion in 2024, highlighting the urgency of restructuring its economic system [27][30]
沪指近十年春节后上涨概率达70%!有股民用年终奖补仓
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-11 06:24
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market exhibits a significant "calendar effect" around the Spring Festival, with a high probability of rising in the days following the holiday [1] Market Trends - Historical data indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has a 70% probability of increasing in the first 5 and 10 trading days after the Spring Festival over the past decade [1] - Investors are optimistic about the post-holiday market, with some using year-end bonuses to increase their stock holdings [1] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend maintaining a certain level of stock holdings during the holiday, emphasizing the importance of assessing the medium to long-term market trends [1] - For investors with a strong risk tolerance and an investment horizon of over three months, it is advised to maintain over 70% of their portfolio in stocks to capitalize on growth opportunities post-holiday [1] Focus Areas for Investment - Two main sectors are highlighted for potential investment: 1. Technology growth sectors, including AI applications, semiconductors, and humanoid robots [1] 2. High-growth segments in renewable energy, such as HJT batteries and energy storage [1]
杉杉拟易主 一袭西服的时代转身
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2026-02-11 06:08
Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Singshan Co., Ltd. marks a significant turning point in its restructuring process, with the signing of a restructuring investment agreement with Anhui Wanhui Group and Ningbo Jinzi, potentially leading the company into a new phase dominated by state-owned capital [1][2]. Restructuring Progress - The judicial restructuring of Singshan Group began in 2025 due to debt pressure, equity disputes, and operational fluctuations, with previous attempts to recruit investors failing [2]. - A capital consortium led by Ren Yuanlin proposed a restructuring plan but failed to gain creditor approval, followed by another attempt from Fang Wei, which also ended in withdrawal due to insufficient due diligence [3]. Investment Agreement - On February 6, 2026, Wanhui Group and Ningbo Jinzi signed a restructuring investment agreement, committing to invest no more than 7.156 billion yuan to acquire control of 21.88% of Singshan Co., Ltd.'s shares [3][4]. Financial Performance - Despite the restructuring challenges, Singshan Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve a net profit of 400 million to 600 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses [4]. - The anticipated profitability is largely attributed to the robust growth in the core businesses of anode materials and polarizers, with combined net profits projected between 900 million and 1.1 billion yuan [5]. Business Transformation - Singshan Co., Ltd. has evolved from a clothing brand to a leader in the anode materials and polarizer sectors, showcasing successful cross-industry transformation [6][7]. - The company has established a dual-engine business model focusing on lithium battery anode materials and polarizers, which has become a significant growth driver [7]. Challenges and Future Outlook - The sudden death of founder Zheng Yonggang in February 2023 led to internal conflicts and operational pressures, resulting in a net loss of 367 million yuan for the first time since its listing in 1996 [8][9]. - As of the end of 2023, the company's total liabilities reached a historical peak of 24.882 billion yuan, with ongoing restructuring efforts aimed at stabilizing the business [9]. - The successful restructuring could lead to a change in control, with Wanhui Group becoming the new controlling shareholder, aligning with the local industrial landscape and addressing key supply chain gaps in the lithium battery sector [9][10].
杉杉拟易主,一袭西服的时代转身
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2026-02-11 05:56
Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of Singshan Group marks a significant turning point for the company, transitioning to a state-owned enterprise led by Anhui Guowei Group and Ningbo Jinzi, which could stabilize its operations and financial health [1][2]. Restructuring Progress - The judicial restructuring of Singshan Group began in 2025 due to debt pressure, equity disputes, and operational fluctuations, with previous attempts to recruit investors failing [2]. - A capital consortium led by Ren Yuanlin proposed a restructuring plan but failed to gain creditor approval, highlighting the complexity of Singshan's debt and equity issues [3]. - In February 2026, Anhui Guowei Group and Ningbo Jinzi emerged as the successful investors, committing up to 7.156 billion yuan to acquire control of 21.88% of Singshan's shares [2][3]. Financial Performance - Despite the restructuring challenges, Singshan is expected to achieve a net profit of 400 million to 600 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses [3][4]. - The core businesses of anode materials and polarizers are projected to generate a combined net profit of 900 million to 1.1 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the company's recovery [4]. Business Transformation - Singshan, originally known for its clothing brand, has successfully transitioned into the lithium battery materials and polarizer sectors, becoming a leader in these industries [5][6]. - The company has developed a dual-engine business model focusing on lithium battery anode materials and polarizers, which has driven its recent growth [6]. Leadership and Legacy - The sudden passing of founder Zheng Yonggang in February 2023 created a power vacuum, leading to internal disputes and operational challenges, resulting in a net loss of 367 million yuan for 2024 [8]. - The company's debt reached a historical peak of 24.882 billion yuan by the end of 2023, with ongoing restructuring efforts aimed at stabilizing its financial situation [8]. Strategic Alignment - The investment from Anhui Guowei Group is seen as a strategic move to enhance the local industrial chain, as the region lacks a leading player in lithium battery materials [9]. - The alignment of core businesses between Singshan and Anhui Guowei Group is expected to facilitate the integration of regional resources and support the company's recovery [9].
“一带一路”能源投资前景展望 ——中国“一带一路”能源投资报告(2025)⑨
Zhong Guo Dian Li Bao· 2026-02-11 03:37
Core Viewpoint - China's energy investment in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries is evolving towards green transformation, inclusivity, intelligent upgrades, and systematic risk management, aiming to become a stabilizer for global energy transition and a connector for common development [1] Group 1: Investment Focus on Low-Carbon Fields - China is leveraging its technological innovation and cost advantages in solar and wind energy to drive global energy transition, with a commitment to implement new projects of "10 million kilowatts of solar" and "10 million kilowatts of wind" in collaboration with other Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) countries over the next five years [2] - The complete green energy industry chain established by China, from core component production to project operation, enables it to provide integrated solutions for BRI countries, aligning with their economic capabilities [2] - The demand for renewable energy is expected to grow significantly, with Wood Mackenzie estimating that the installed capacity for wind and solar power in Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia will reach 120 gigawatts, requiring an investment of $73 billion [2] Group 2: Emphasis on Inclusive Investment Projects - Approximately 730 million people globally lack access to electricity, highlighting the urgent need for energy transition and international cooperation [3] - Chinese enterprises are shifting energy cooperation from infrastructure output to development empowerment, providing cost-effective and tailored energy solutions for developing countries [3] - Projects like the wind power initiatives in South Africa and Kazakhstan not only address local electricity shortages but also promote local development through talent training and community support [3] Group 3: Efficiency Enhancement through Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is becoming the core competitive advantage in BRI energy investments, with AI and digital technologies significantly improving project efficiency and reducing costs by 15% to 30% [4] - Chinese companies are applying AI and big data in overseas projects, achieving notable efficiency gains, and continuously making breakthroughs in solar and wind energy technologies [4] - The internationalization of Chinese renewable energy standards is accelerating, enhancing compatibility and interconnectivity of regional equipment [4] Group 4: Risk Governance Covering the Entire Lifecycle - As the scale and complexity of BRI energy investments increase, there is a growing emphasis on systematic risk management throughout the project lifecycle [5][6] - Chinese enterprises have developed effective risk management mechanisms, including thorough feasibility studies and compliance management to ensure adherence to local laws and international standards [6] - The approach to risk management is evolving from traditional project-level strategies to a more systematic and networked governance model, requiring collaboration among governments and stakeholders to build resilient risk governance networks [6]
新春值守保投产:西安地铁细柳零碳能源中心冲刺调试收尾
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2026-02-11 03:20
Core Insights - The Xi'an Xiliu Vehicle Depot project is the first hydrogen-powered zero-carbon smart energy center demonstration project in China, which has completed its main construction and is entering the final debugging phase after achieving a key breakthrough in photovoltaic grid connection [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project, undertaken by China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) Silk Road, began construction in May 2025 and has been completed in 8 months, utilizing an innovative energy supply model combining "photovoltaics + electrochemical energy storage + hydrogen fuel cells" [1]. - The project features a complete zero-carbon energy supply system, including an energy exchange station, hydrogen energy, energy storage, control systems, and geothermal heat pump systems, supported by a 7MWp distributed photovoltaic system [1]. Group 2: Current Status and Future Plans - The current focus is on completing system integration testing to ensure all equipment meets production standards, with project manager Lei Qiang emphasizing the importance of addressing technical parameters and details during the final stages [2]. - The project is expected to create over 1,000 jobs and involve more than 30 supporting enterprises during its construction, contributing to the establishment of a hydrogen energy demonstration base in Northwest China [3]. Group 3: Environmental Impact - Upon completion, the project is projected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 30,000 tons annually, equivalent to planting 1.67 million trees, thereby supporting the green transformation of the rail transit industry and contributing to the national "dual carbon" strategy in the Northwest region [3].
金融期货早评-20260211
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 02:53
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic macro - policy is centered on coordinated efforts to support economic development. The monetary policy coordinates with the fiscal policy through three paths, and there is a high probability of a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut in the first quarter, releasing about 1 trillion in liquidity, and 1 - 2 policy rate cuts of 10 - 20BP throughout the year. The capital market's structural opportunities are dominated by policy coordination, industrial upgrading, and resource security. [2] - The RMB exchange rate is affected by factors such as the strength of the yen and poor US retail data. Seasonal settlement demand before the Spring Festival supports the RMB, but the endogenous appreciation power may decline after the festival. [4] - The stock index is expected to be volatile before the festival due to the approaching holiday and the upcoming release of economic data. It is recommended to reduce positions before the festival. [6] - The bond market is cautious before the festival. The T2606 contract can be moderately long - positioned on dips, and the March contract can be exited on rallies. [8] - The container shipping European line futures show a structural differentiation. The near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month peak - season contracts remain relatively resilient. [11] - For new energy products, the downstream inventory - building before the Spring Festival for lithium carbonate is basically completed, and it is recommended to sell volatility. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are under pressure due to high inventory. [13][14] - For non - ferrous metals, copper's volatility is expected to increase after the festival, and it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options when the volatility drops to 20%. Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to be volatile. Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, tin, and lead also have their own market characteristics and corresponding investment suggestions. [17][19][21][22] - For oilseeds and fats, the USDA report has limited adjustments to soybeans. The external soybean market is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different market trends. The oil market is expected to be volatile before the festival. [25][27] - For energy and oil and gas, fuel oil has weak upward momentum, low - sulfur fuel oil follows the cost and fluctuates at a high level, and asphalt has weak upward momentum and is affected by cost and demand. [29][30][32] - For precious metals, platinum and palladium have a bullish long - term outlook, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Gold and silver are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long - term. [36][39] - For chemicals, pulp and offset paper futures are expected to be volatile. LPG is affected by geopolitical factors. PX - PTA is affected by supply and demand and is expected to be volatile. MEG - bottle chips have limited fundamental drivers. Methanol is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday. Plastic PP, pure benzene - styrene, and rubber also have their own market characteristics and investment suggestions. [42][44][46][50][53][55][57][60] - For black commodities, steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to be volatile and weak. Iron ore has weak supply and demand before the festival and is recommended to be observed. Coking coal and coke are recommended to be lightly - positioned during the holiday. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be volatile and weak. [73][76][79][81] - For agricultural and soft commodities, the pig price is at the bottom, and the cotton market is affected by the USDA report and is expected to be volatile. The sugar price is affected by the international market and has limited upward space. The egg price is expected to be volatile and weak. The apple price is affected by the end of stocking and has limited downward space. The jujube price is expected to be volatile at a low level. The log price needs to verify the post - holiday demand. [84][86][89][91][98][100][101] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: The RMB exchange rate has risen to 6.90. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The CME plans to launch individual stock futures this summer. The US private - sector employment has increased, and the retail sales in December were flat. The Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB appreciated against the US dollar. Seasonal settlement demand supports the RMB before the festival, but the endogenous appreciation power may decline after the festival. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.91 level. [3][4] - **Stock Index**: The stock index was volatile, and the trading volume shrank before the festival. It is expected to be volatile before the festival, and it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid overseas market risks during the holiday. [5][6] - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market was cautious before the festival. The T2606 contract can be moderately long - positioned on dips, and the March contract can be exited on rallies. [6][8] - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures price of the container shipping European line declined. The market's confidence in the shipping companies' price increase in March was frustrated. The near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month peak - season contracts remain relatively resilient. [8][9][11] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The downstream inventory - building before the Spring Festival is basically completed, and the price is stable. The volatility is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to sell volatility. [13][14] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are under pressure due to high inventory. The industry is focused on de - stocking. [14][15] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price's volatility has significantly narrowed. It is expected that the post - festival volatility will be higher than before the festival. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options when the volatility drops to 20%. [17][19] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum have little change, and it is expected to be volatile. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum. [19][20] - **Zinc**: The zinc price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to conduct a small - scale internal - external reverse hedging when the energy cost is high. [21] - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The nickel - stainless steel market is volatile and strong. The supply and demand are weak, and the market is affected by the Indonesian policy. [22] - **Tin**: The tin price is expected to be volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to the US employment and CPI data this week. [23] - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to be weakly volatile. [23][24] Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The USDA report has limited adjustments to soybeans. The external soybean market is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different market trends. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse hedging opportunities. [25][26] - **Fats**: The external oil market is volatile, and the domestic oil market is expected to be volatile before the festival. It is recommended to wait and see. [27] Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil price has weak upward momentum. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. [29] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil price follows the cost and fluctuates at a high level. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable. [30][31] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price has weak upward momentum. The demand is at a low point before the festival, and the price is expected to follow the cost of crude oil. [32][33] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum and palladium prices are volatile and weak. The long - term bullish foundation remains, and it is recommended to buy on dips. [35][37] - **Gold and Silver**: The gold and silver prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long - term. It is recommended to reduce or clear positions during the holiday. [39][40] Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp and offset paper futures are expected to be volatile. The fundamentals are relatively bearish, and it is recommended to conduct range trading. [42][43] - **LPG**: The LPG price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is at a low level. [44][45] - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA market is affected by supply and demand. The PX supply is expected to be tight in the second quarter, and the PTA processing fee is expected to be difficult to maintain at a high level. [46][49] - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The MEG - bottle chips market has limited fundamental drivers. The demand is seasonally weak, and the supply is expected to improve. [50][52] - **Methanol**: The methanol price is affected by geopolitical and non - ferrous metal factors. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday. [53][54] - **Plastic PP**: The plastic PP market is expected to be range - bound. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to the post - festival inventory accumulation and marginal device profit. [55][56] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The pure benzene - styrene market is expected to be range - bound. The supply of pure benzene is increasing, and the demand is flat. The supply of styrene is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. [57][59] - **Rubber**: The natural rubber is strong, and the synthetic rubber is under pressure. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to be lightly - positioned before the long holiday. [60][63][65] - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to be short - term adjusted. It is recommended to close long positions and be out of the market during the holiday. [66][67] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash is expected to be weakly volatile, and the glass is expected to be volatile. The supply of soda ash is high, and the demand for glass is weak. [68][69] - **Propylene**: The propylene price is supported by fundamentals. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing, but the supply - demand gap is still tight. [70][71] Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is weak. The price may test the lower limit of the shock range. [73][74][75] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has weak supply and demand before the festival. The supply is seasonally decreasing, and the demand is affected by the steel mill's production. It is recommended to observe. [76][78] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke prices are recommended to be lightly - positioned during the holiday. The supply of coking coal is seasonally decreasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. [79][80] - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The cost provides support, but the downstream inventory accumulation and high inventory of ferromanganese put pressure on the price. [81][82] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pig**: The pig price is at the bottom, and it is recommended to buy on the rebound for the 05 contract. [84][85] - **Cotton**: The USDA report is bearish for cotton. The domestic cotton market is expected to be volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to the demand for US cotton. [86][88] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic sugar price has limited upward space. [89][90] - **Egg**: The egg price is expected to be volatile and weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak before the festival. [91][92] - **Apple**: The apple price is affected by the end of stocking, and the downward space is limited due to the delivery contradiction. [98][99] - **Jujube**: The jujube price is expected to be volatile at a low level. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak before the festival. [100] - **Log**: The log price needs to verify the post - holiday demand. The import cost has increased, but the liquidity is insufficient. It is recommended to observe. [101][102]